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3000
2500
2000
Qrt Avg 2005-2008 –
€1.6 bn
€ million
1500
500
Q3 2009*
Q1 2005
Q2 2005
Q3 2005
Q4 2005
Q1 2006
Q2 2006
Q3 2006
Q4 2006
Q1 2007
Q2 2007
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Source: CB Richard Ellis. * Q3 2009 data through end of August 2009.
CB Richard Ellis | Page 4
% y-o-y change to office rents
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Q1 2001 40%
Q2 2001
Q3 2001
Q2 2002
Q3 2002
Q4 2002
Q1 2003
Q2 2003
Q3 2003
Q4 2003
Q1 2004
Q2 2004
Q3 2004
Q4 2004
Central Europe
Q1 2005
Q2 2005
Q3 2005
CEE
Q4 2005
Q1 2006
Q2 2006
EU-15
Q3 2006
Q4 2006
Q1 2007
Q2 2007
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
CE Office Prime Rent Indices
Rents have moved down as economic pressure and vacancy have increased
CE Weighted Average Prime Office Yields
Yields have moved out significantly in recent quarters, although more stable in Q2 2009
Central Europe CEE EU-15
14%
Prague: 7.00%
Bratislava: 7.25%
Budapest: 8.00%
10%
8%
6%
4%
Q1 2001
Q2 2001
Q3 2001
Q4 2001
Q1 2002
Q2 2002
Q3 2002
Q4 2002
Q1 2003
Q2 2003
Q3 2003
Q4 2003
Q1 2004
Q2 2004
Q3 2004
Q4 2004
Q1 2005
Q2 2005
Q3 2005
Q4 2005
Q1 2006
Q2 2006
Q3 2006
Q4 2006
Q1 2007
Q2 2007
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Source: CB Richard Ellis.
CB Richard Ellis | Page 6
CE Prime Office Capital Value Movement
CE capital values significantly less affected than CEE as a whole, but still down 35%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
capital value change (y-o-y %)
20%
10%
0%
-10% 1 2
-20%
3 5 (?)
-30%
-40%
4
-50%
-60%
-70%
Q1 2001
Q2 2001
Q3 2001
Q4 2001
Q1 2002
Q2 2002
Q3 2002
Q4 2002
Q1 2003
Q2 2003
Q3 2003
Q4 2003
Q1 2004
Q2 2004
Q3 2004
Q4 2004
Q1 2005
Q2 2005
Q3 2005
Q4 2005
Q1 2006
Q2 2006
Q3 2006
Q4 2006
Q1 2007
Q2 2007
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Source: CB Richard Ellis.
•Credit Crunch +
•Recession +
•Negative Sentiment Regarding CE ....
•Declining Rents
•Yield Decompression ....
Or at least....?
-2
GDP Growth (%)
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
SEE
CEE
EE
EU-15
CE
Italy
Romania
Bulgaria
Hungary
United Kingdom
Poland
Spain
France
Slovakia
Russia
Czech Republic
Croatia
Austria
Serbia
Germany
Ukraine
Ireland
Netherlands
Sweden
Sources: CEE countries from UniCredit CEE Quarterly 03/2009; Western European countries IMF (May 2009).
30 30%
25 25%
15 15%
10 10%
5 5%
0 0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 H1 2009 2009(f) 2010(f)
Source: CB Richard Ellis. Based on aggregate totals for Belgrade, Bratislava, Budapest, Bucharest, Kyiv, Moscow, Prague, Sofia,
Warsaw and Zagreb.
CB Richard Ellis | Page 11
million sq m
0
4
8
12
16
20
Belgrade
Zagreb
Sofia
Bucharest
St. Petersburg
Marseille
Budapest
Prague
Warsaw
Dublin
Geneva
Lisbon
Lyon
Barcelona
Coperhagen
Rome
Amsterdam
Helsinki
Oslo
Milan
Vienna
Moscow
Stockholm
Madrid
Frankfurt
Brussels
Hamburg
Berlin
Munich
London - Central
Size of EMEA Office Markets – H1 2009
Paris Ile-de-France
CEE office markets remain small despite high rate of growth in recent years
52.9 mn
CE Development Completions by Market
Office pipelines drying up across region, will lead to less new space in 2010-2011 especially
4000
3200
2400
thousand sq m
1600
800
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009(f) 2010(f) 2011(f)
Source: CB Richard Ellis. Based on aggregate totals for Belgrade, Bratislava, Budapest, Bucharest, Moscow, Prague, Sofia,
Warsaw and Zagreb.
CB Richard Ellis | Page 13
CE Development Pipelines v Current Stock
More sustainable growth ahead in Central Europe
Forecast Com pletions (U/C) H2 2009 Forecast Com pletions (U/C) 2010
Pipeline as % of Current Stock (H1 2009) Pipeline as % of Stock (end 2008)
1000 75
confirmed development pipeline (thousand sq m)
800 60
% of current stock
600 45
400 30
Central Europe
200 15
0 0
Kyiv
Dublin
Sofia
Bratislava
Munich
Budapest
Prague
Belgrade
Vienna
Paris
Zagreb
Bucharest
Warsaw
Moscow
Amsterdam
Source: CB Richard Ellis.
Source: CB Richard Ellis. Because Budapest stock does not include owner-occupied space, adds 25% to Budapest’s stock to
estimate amount of owner occupied space, assumes that this space is occupied.
CB Richard Ellis | Page 15
CE Vacancy Going Forward
Prague well positioned to resist downturn….
Historical 100% T-U 75% T-U 50% T-U 75% T-U w 50% Replace 50% T-U w 50% Replace
14%
10%
vacancy rate (%)
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009(f) Q4 2009(f) Q1 2010(f) Q2 2010(f) Q3 2010(f) Q4 2010(f)
Historical 100% T-U 75% T-U 50% T-U 75% T-U w 50% Replace 50% T-U w 50% Replace
14%
10%
vacancy rate (%)
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009(f) Q4 2009(f) Q1 2010(f) Q2 2010(f) Q3 2010(f) Q4 2010(f)
0
8
16
24
32
40
48
56
64
72
80
Bratislava
Budapest
Prague
Copenhagen
Berlin
Lisbon
Bucharest
Lyon
Marseille
Vienna
Barcelona
Kyiv
Brussels
Hamburg
Amsterdam
Oslo
Helsinki
Stockholm
Munich
Madrid
Athens
Rome
Frankfurt
Dublin
London City
Milan
Geneva
St Petersburg
Zurich
Paris Ile-de-France
Moscow
EMEA Office Prime Rents – H1 2009
CE Prim e Rent Index (excluding Warsaw ) CEE Prim e Rent Index (including EE, Warsaw )
15%
12%
9%
6%
rental movement (q-o-q %)
3%
0%
-3%
-6%
-9%
Upw ard Movem ent to Peak (from Q1 2005) Dow nw ard Movem ent from Peak (through Q2 2009)
90
80
70
maximum change in prime rent (€ / sq m / month)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
-90
Kyiv
Sofia
Bratislava
Munich
Budapest
Prague
Belgrade
Vienna
London - Central
Zagreb
Madrid
Bucharest
Warsaw
Moscow
Paris Ile-de-
Amsterdam
St. Petersburg
France
Source: CB Richard Ellis. Data for upward movement not available for Belgrade.
12
9
average rental growth rate (%/year)
-3
-6
-9
EE
CEE
SEE
EU-15
CE
Kyiv
Sofia
Bratislava
Munich
Budapest
Vienna
Prague
London - Central
Madrid
Bucharest
Moscow
Warsaw
Paris Ile-de-
Amsterdam
France
Source: CB Richard Ellis. EE growth rate includes St. Petersburg and is calculated based on change in rents in USD.
Calculated through Q2 2009.
CB Richard Ellis | Page 22
Prime Office Yield Movement in Western Europe
Evidence from key Western European markets suggests that yield decompression slowing
7%
6%
net initial yield (%)
5%
4%
3%
Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009
9%
8%
net initial yield (%)
7%
6%
5%
4%
Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009
12
10 10.14%
net initial yield (%)
8
7.12%
6 6.19%
Yield Spread
Yield Spread Q2 2009:
Q2 2004: Yield Spread CE: 93 bps
CE: 265 bps Yield Spread Q2 2008:
4 Q1 2007: CE: 25 bps
CE: 94 bps
2
Q2 2002
Q3 2002
Q4 2002
Q1 2003
Q2 2003
Q3 2003
Q4 2003
Q1 2004
Q2 2004
Q3 2004
Q4 2004
Q1 2005
Q2 2005
Q3 2005
Q4 2005
Q1 2006
Q2 2006
Q3 2006
Q4 2006
Q1 2007
Q2 2007
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Source: CB Richard Ellis.