Graphing History

Does history (the record of human change) occur in a straight line?

Change

Time
 Graphing History

No, it is a series of steps.

Change

Time
 Graphing History

No, it is a series of steps.

Steam Power
Change Printing Press

Written Language

Spoken Language

(Prehistory)

Time
 Industrial Revolution

The last two centuries have seen a series of steps we call

the Industrial Revolution(s).

Computers
Change Automobiles

Railways

Steam Engines

(Middle Ages)

Time
Industrial Revolution

First Revolution
(1780–1840)
Based in United Kingdom
 Steam Engine
 Textile Industry
 Mechanical Engineering
Industrial Revolution

Second Revolution
(1840–1900)
Based in Europe –
England, France, Germany
 Railways
 Steel Industry
Industrial Revolution

Third Revolution
(1900–1950)
Based in United States
 Electric Engine
 Heavy Chemicals
 Automobiles
 Consumer Durables
Industrial Revolution

Fourth Revolution
(1950–Present)
Based in Pacific Basin –
California, Japan
 Synthetics
 Organic Chemicals (Oil)
 Computers
 Graphing History

Each industrial revolution marked a major change— a big

step in social, political, and economic history.

Computers

Automobiles
Change
Railways

Steam Engines

Time
 Graphing History

But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps

actually are s-shaped curves.

Change

Time
 Graphing History

But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps

actually are s-shaped curves.

Change

Time
 Graphing History

But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps

actually are s-shaped curves.

Change

Time
 Graphing History

But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps

actually are s-shaped curves.

Change

Time
Industrial Revolutions

Time
The Next Industrial Revolution

Fifth Revolution
(2010? – ??)
Based in Developing World?
China? India? Brazil?
 Nanotechnology
 Molecular Manufacturing
Industrial Revolutions

Time
(Measured in decades)
Molecular Manufacturing
Revolution

Time
(Measured in YEARS)
Accelerated Impacts

Molecular
Manufacturing
Revolution

Industrial Revolutions

Time
The Next Big Step

Computers

Automobiles

Railways
Steam Engines

(Middle Ages)

Time
The Next Big Step

Nanotechnology

Computers

Automobiles

Railways
Steam Engines

(Middle Ages)

Time
Accelerated Impacts

Molecular
Manufacturing
Revolution

Industrial Revolutions

Time
The Next Big Step

Nanotechnology

Computers

Automobiles

Railways
Steam Engines

(Middle Ages)

Time
The Next Big Step

Nanotechnology

Computers

Automobiles

Railways
Steam Engines

(Middle Ages)

Time
 Change is Coming

The combined impacts of nanotechnology will equal the Industrial

Revolutions of the last two centuries — but with all that change
compressed into just a few years.
 Jolt to the System

The ability to build anything we

can design, by manipulating
molecules under direct
computer control, will be a jolt
to the system.

Molecular Mill image courtesy of Eric Drexler

 Jolt to the System
The ability to build anything we
can design, by manipulating
molecules under direct
computer control, will be a jolt
to the system.

Image by John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios

A transformative, disruptive, discontinuous jolt to ecological,

economic, political, and social systems — on a local, national, and
global scale.
Nanotechnology is…

 Not just new products — a new means of production

 Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing
systems — exponential proliferation
 Vastly accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid
prototyping
 Affects all industries and economic sectors — general-
purpose technology
 Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost
— economic discontinuity
 Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption
 Impacts will cross borders — global transformation
 Inside a
Nanofactory
Benefits + Risks

An automated, self-contained factory could provide...

Benefits + Risks

An automated, self-contained factory could provide...

Lifesaving medical
robots or Untraceable weapons of
mass destruction
Benefits + Risks

An automated, self-contained factory could provide...

Lifesaving medical
robots or Untraceable weapons of
mass destruction

Networked computers for

everyone in the world or Networked cameras so governments
can watch our every move
Benefits + Risks

An automated, self-contained factory could provide...

Lifesaving medical
robots or Untraceable weapons of
mass destruction

Networked computers for

everyone in the world or Networked cameras so governments
can watch our every move

Trillions of dollars of
abundance or A vicious scramble to
own everything
Benefits + Risks

An automated, self-contained factory could provide...

Lifesaving medical
robots or Untraceable weapons of
mass destruction

Networked computers for

everyone in the world or Networked cameras so governments
can watch our every move

Trillions of dollars of
abundance or A vicious scramble to
own everything

Rapid invention of
wondrous products or Weapons development fast enough
to destabilize any arms race
Benefits + Risks

An automated, self-contained factory could provide...

Lifesaving medical Untraceable weapons of

robots
AND mass destruction

Networked computers for Networked cameras so governments

everyone in the world
AND can watch our every move

Trillions of dollars of A vicious scramble to

abundance
AND own everything

Rapid invention of Weapons development fast enough

wondrous products
AND to destabilize any arms race
Innovation & Economy
 Not just new products — a new means of production
 Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing
systems — exponential proliferation
 Vastly accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid
prototyping
 Affects all industries and economic sectors — general-
purpose technology
 Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost
— economic discontinuity
 Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption
 Impacts will cross borders — global transformation
Dangers
Economic disruption from an abundance of cheap products
Economic oppression from artificially inflated prices
Personal risk from criminal or terrorist use
Constant intrusive surveillance
Oppression from abusive restrictions
Social disruption from new products/lifestyles
Unstable arms race leading to war
Collective environmental damage from unregulated products
Black market in molecular manufacturing (increases other risks)
Competing nanotechnology programs (increases other risks)
. . . and many more
Rapid Progress
Nucleic acid / protein engineering
NASA study on machine self-replication
Solution-phase artificial molecular machines
Tool fabrication process for diamond
mechanosynthesis
Russian roadmap
Drexler’s roadmap
Nanofactory design
Nanotechnology Leadership
What it WILL NOT require:
•Heavy industry
•Scarce natural resources
•Massive capital
Nanotechnology Leadership
What it WILL require:
•Highly educated scientists and
engineers
•Long-term (5-15 years) dedicated
effort
Nanotechnology Leadership
What it SHOULD require:
•Openness
•Cooperation
What is Needed Now

 Awareness of the issues

 Technical research
 Policy research
Exposure to nanoparticles and related hazards
Uptake routes for nanoparticles:
Nanoparticles

Brain Nose

Lung Skin GI-Tract

Blood

Brain Bone Spleen Wall Liver Heart Placenta

Blood Vessels
Marrow Fetus

Degenerative
Changes
Health and Safety Impacts of Nanomaterials

• Absorption through the skin;

• Inhalation: nanoparticles can enter the

bloodstream through the lungs;

• Ingestion

• Nanoparticles can pass through the

blood/brain barrier

• Not easily filtered

 Nanoparticles: Exposure
Information on Exposure for man and environment:
• Which nanoparticles are released and lead to relevant
direct/indirect exposure (production, use, life cycle)?
• How to measure relevant parameters (mass
concentration, surface, volume, particle number)?
• How to estimate exposures?
• How to develop an easy and low-cost measurement
technique including personal sampling?
• What is an efficient measurement strategy?
 Nanoparticles: Hazard and Risk
Information on hazard and risk:
• What effects are induced by nanoparticles for example via
inhalation and dermal contact or in the environment?
• What is/are the relevant effect parameter(s) (mass, surface,
volume, particle number)?
• Is the effect of nanoparticles comparable to fine dust, but different
in potency?
• Nanomaterials having specific properties may require a different
classification and labelling compared to the bulk material.
• How to assess agglomerates and aggregates?
• What is an appropriate test and risk assessment strategy?
 Problems 1

„Magic Nano“

Bath sealent chemical

> 100 intoxications
(oedema)
Product recall (Penny-
Market)
 Contained NO
nanoparticles

2006
 Problems 2

Skin cream with fullerenes (C60)

Cream with fullerenes (antiox.) (30

ml = 266 US$)
Fullerenes were found to be
neurotoxic in fish
 Non-governmental organizations
(NGOs) are calling for strict
regulation of cosmetics

© 2008 – All rights reserved to THE INNOVATION SOCIETY, St.Gallen / Christoph Meili
 Problems 3

Nano-Silver washing machine (SAMSUNG)

Antibacterial effect of silver ions

in the washing machine
Silver lasts for over 3000 wash
processes (10 years)
 Environmental NGOs are
calling for pest declaration of
silver at the Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA)

© 2008 – All rights reserved to THE INNOVATION SOCIETY, St.Gallen / Christoph Meili
 Proximal Alveolar Region SWCNT Day 3

Silver-enhanced gold-labeled aggregate SWCNT, 40 ug aspiration, perfusion fixed.

Mercer - NIOSH
 SWCNT Response 7 Days
Collagen

SWCNT
Pharyngeal aspiration of 40ug SWCNT in C57BL/6 mice Mercer - NIOSH
 Images of Nano-Risks

• Metaphor: ‘Nanoparticles as the next Asbestos

Nanotubes Asbestos
The gut is filled with a black material, which
are carbon nanoparticles. The orange
globs are Daphnia babies.
TEM micrographs of different
nanoparticles: (A) nAg1 colloid, (B) nAg2
colloid, (C) dry powder of nAg3, and (D) https://doi.org/10.1186/1477-3155-10-14
suspension of nAg3.
Light microscope images of daphnia
exposed to nAg1 and nAg2 colloids for
24 hours. A: control; B: live daphnia
exposed to 0.002 mg/L nAg1,
pigmentation can been seen under the
brood chamber (circles); C: dead
daphnia exposed to 0.01 mg/L nAg2;
D: live daphnia exposed to 0.004 mg/L
nAg1; E: live daphnia exposed to 0.002
mg/L nAg2. In images C, D, and E,
small bubbles can be seen under the
carapace; plus, nanoparticle
aggregates can be seen on the
antennae, body surface, and also in
the brood chamber.

https://doi.org/10.1186/1477-3155-10-14
D. magna after 24-hour exposure to 0.15 mg/L aqueous suspension of nAg3. A: black
color of digestive tract shows uptake of nAg3. B and C: nanoparticle aggregates are
attached to antennae and also seen in brood chamber.

https://doi.org/10.1186/1477-3155-10-14
 Nanoparticles: Risk Management

Information on risk management:

• Is the present framework for data generation,
information collection, hazard and risk assessment
sufficient to manage nanoparticles safely?
• Are the present protective measures for fine dust
also effective for nanoparticles? What else is
needed?
• How to develop good working practices while having
insufficient information on effects (precaution)?
• What risk mitigation strategies are already applied?
 Nanoparticles: Communication

Information on communication:
• How to involve all interested parties and
stakeholders?
• How to inform the public about the technical,
economical and social impact of
nanotechnology?
• How to inform the user about the uses of
nanomaterials, their benefits, their risks and the
uncertainty of the risks?
 Responsibilities for Nanomaterials

Producer/Exporting Countries
- Generation of information (hazard)
- Risk assessments, Risk management
- Information on classification/labeling (C/L), safety
data sheets (SDS), risk assessments, risk
management options, bans/restrictions
User/Importing Countries
- Awareness raising (hazard, risk, C/L SDS)
- Make information available
- implement regulatory framework for safe use
- Implementation, enforcement (resources)
 National work for Nanomaterials 1

- Are nanomaterials in my country: where, which uses?

- Are the nanomaterials nanoparticles or mixtures of
nanoparticles or articles containing materials with
nanostructures?
- How can I get this information (survey, notification
requirement, nanospecific label) and relevant
information on risks?
- What is the type and size of the problem in my
country?
- Who in my country is responsible for R&D and who
is responsible for the safety of nanomaterials?
- With whom do I cooperate in my country for Nano?
 National work for Nanomaterials 2
- How are developed countries addressing the problem of
potential risks of nanoparticles science/regulation?
- What is done on the international level?
- What is the present regulatory frame work for industrial
chemicals in my country? Is it sufficient to control the risks
from nanoparticles?
- Is a specific regulatory framework needed for nano-
particles?
- What voluntary activities are in practice or under
consideration (advisory body, code of practice,
exposure/risk mitigation, nanospecific SDS, ..)?
- How do I raise awareness and involve the stakeholders?
- What do I require from producers or importers?
 Technical information needs for Nano
- List of nanomaterials/nanoparticles in international trade
- Main uses of such nanomaterials/nanoparticles, in which
industry branches?
- Possible exposures and health risks/environmental risks:
toxicology, environment effects (new unknown effects or
known effects expected?)
Access to studies and expertise for interpretation
- Monitoring methods and instruments for
consumer/worker and environment exposure
- Proper waste treatment, control transboundary
movement
- Code of practice for safe use of worker, consumer and
environment (applying precaution)
 Benefits of Nanomaterials
Information on benefits of Nanomaterials:
• Proven benefits for the man and/or environment
(for example less toxic, less waste, longer
duration, energy efficient, resource/material
efficient, cleaning of contaminated water,
remediation efficient, environmental sensors)
• Proven sustainability of nano based product
compared to conventional products over the
whole life cycle
• Competitive on the market
• Availability, accessibility
 Overview
Inherent risks of different nanotechnological fields
(a draft overview)

Materials/ Nanobio / Nanofactory/

Devices Instrumentation
Instrumentation
Powders NanoMedicine Replication

- Optical Devices
- Novel Materials - Light Sources
Light Sources
- Biomaterials
Biomaterials - Tips and Probes - Machining
Machining
- Nano
Nano Particles
Particles - Sensors
Sensors
- Life
Life Sciences
Sciences - Data
Data Storage
Storage - Self
Self Assembly
Assembly
- Surfaces
Surfaces - Energy Storage
- Photovoltaics
Photovoltaics

Environment
Environment Environment
Environment Environment
Environment Environment
Environment Environment
Environment
Risks Risks
Risks Risks Risks Risks

Toxicity Toxicity Toxicity Toxicity Toxicity

Societal
Societal Societal Societal Societal Societal
Impacts
Impacts Impacts Impacts Impacts Impacts

Economic
Economic Economic
Economic Economic
Economic Economic
Economic Economic
Economic
uncertainty
uncertainty uncertainty
uncertainty uncertainty
uncertainty uncertainty
uncertainty uncertainty
uncertainty

No or little risks Medium risks High risks