India's Journey to Self-Reliance

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CONTENTS
ACRONYM LIST 3
I. 5
II. 6
INDIAN PRIORITIES 8
UNPACKING THE JOURNEY TO SELF-RELIANCE COUNTRY ROADMAP 8
COUNTRY TRANSITION PLANNING 10
GENERAL DEVELOPMENT APPROACH 10
REDEFINING THE DEVELOPMENT RELATIONSHIP 10
PRIVATE SECTOR RELATIONSHIP 11
III. 11
INCLUSIVE DEVELOPMENT 11
PRIVATE SECTOR ENGAGEMENT (PSE) 12
INDIA’S COMMITMENT AND LEADERSHIP 13
OTHER STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS 14
USG PARTNERS 14
OTHER DONORS 15
STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS AND OUTREACH 15
IV. 15
GOAL STATEMENT 16
DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE 1 16
CONTRIBUTING TO THE JOURNEY TO SELF-RELIANCE 17
DO1 INTERMEDIATE RESULTS (IR) 18
DO2 INTERMEDIATE RESULTS (IR) 21
CONTRIBUTING TO THE JOURNEY TO SELF RELIANCE 22
DO3 INTERMEDIATE RESULTS (IRS) 23
SPECIAL OBJECTIVE 24
SPECIAL OBJECTIVE INTERMEDIATE RESULTS (IRS) 25
V. 26
VI. Error! Bookmark not defined.
USAID.GOVUSAID INDIA CDCS | 2

ACRONYM LIST
AIF Alternative Investment Fund
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
BRI Belt and Road Initiative
CBO Community Based Organization
CCNPSC Cooperating Country National Personal Service Contractors
CDCS Country Development Cooperation Strategy
CLA Collaborating, Learning, and Adapting
CLAIM Collaborating, Learning and Adapting in India Mechanism
CLEEO Clean Energy and Environment Office
CSR Corporate Social Responsibility
CTA Central Tibetan Administration
DIO Development Innovations Office
DO Development Objective
DOE U.S. Department of Energy
DOH Department of Health
DPA Development Partnership Administration
DRM Disaster Risk Management
EGR Early Grade Reading
FCS U.S. Foreign Commercial Service
FSO Food Security Office
GBV Gender-Based Violence
GDO General Development Office
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GIS Geographic Information System
GOI Government of India
HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus
ICASS International Cooperative Administrative Support Services
ICT Information and Communication Technology
IR Intermediate Result
J2SR Journey to Self-Reliance
LGBTI Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Intersex
LPG Liquified Petroleum Gas
TB Tuberculosis
MCA Ministry of Corporate Affairs
MCH Maternal and Child Health
MDR Multi Drug Resistant
MEL Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning
MOHUA Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs
NDRF National Disaster Response Force
NEC New Embassy Compound
NGO Non Governmental Organization
NIDM National Institute of Disaster Management
NSP National Strategic Plan
OE Operating Expenses
OGAC Office of the Global AIDS Coordinator
OSSI Office of Social Sector Initiatives
PEPFAR President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief
3 | USAID INDIA CDCS USAID.GOV

PFOC Program-Funded Operational Cost
PM 2.5 Particulate Matter 2.5 (Fine Particles or Fine Particulate Matter)
PMP Performance Management Plan
PS Program Support Office
PSE Private Sector Engagement
ROAA Regional Office of Acquisition and Assistance
SC Scheduled Caste
SO Special Objective
ST Scheduled Tribe
TAR Tibet Autonomous Region
TPA Tibetan Policy Act
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
USAID U.S. Agency for International Development
USD United States Dollar
USDH U.S. Direct Hires
US-IDF U.S.-India Development Foundation
USG U.S. Government
USPSC U.S. Personal Service Contractors
WASH Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene
WHO World Health Organization

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
During the life of the Country Development Cooperation Strategy (CDCS) from 2020-2024,
USAID/India prioritized key aspects to further India in its Journey to Self-Reliance
(J2SR)USAID/India’s CDCS goal - India Accelerates its Own Inclusive Development and
Fosters Enhanced Regional Connectivity - embodies these two shared USG and Government of
India priorities.
USAID/India prioritized three sector metrics from the J2SR in this CDCS: Child Health,
Biodiversity and Habitat Protection, and Education Quality. Child Health, and maternal health
and infectious diseases in general, is a large theme of the CDCS given the disproportionate
effects of maternal and child health (MCH), tuberculosis (TB), and water, sanitation and hygiene
(WASH) on mortality in India compared to the rest of the world. Biodiversity and Habitat
Protection have been highlighted for intervention as they are crucial for clean air and water and
inversely, the significant impact of pollution on health. Overall, education quality in India remains
very poor, despite achieving near universal access to free primary education.
Across these sectors, the CDCS weaves three metrics - Government Effectiveness, Social
Group Equality, and Economic Gender Gap - as cross-cutting issues that define its strategic
approach. Despite high rankings of government effectiveness and social group equality, in
reality, these issues are very complex and fluctuate depending upon the region, sector, and
interlocutor. India has made important strides towards addressing the Economic Gender Gap
and improvements in the lives of women, girls, and sexual minorities over the last 20 years;
however, women’s workforce participation has declined particularly among urban educated
women. Gender inequality intersects with and exacerbates other forms of social exclusion
based on caste, religious minority status, sexual identity, and disability.
Lastly, India’s Poverty Rate metric ranking is comparatively low despite its thriving and vibrant
economy. Poverty is an underlying issue that all future programs, projects, and activities used to
implement this CDCS will need to tie themselves back to and will ultimately be a measure of
USAID/India’s success.
USAID/India has invested heavily in poverty reduction, health, and education for more than 20
years, yielding innovations and sustainable partnerships, and gaining Government of India
(GOI) support to adopt best practices and scale them up to the general population.
Nevertheless, development gaps continue to persist and USAID/India perceives them as a
problem of inclusiveness. If marginalized groups are included in development efforts,
preventable child and maternal deaths will decrease, the basic literacy rate will improve for all,
pollution-related mortality for all groups will decrease, multidimensional poverty will decrease,
and the most impoverished in India will start to catch up to the development of the rest of the
population. USAID also believes that regional connectivity will improve the self-reliance of India
and other countries in South Asia as well as globally. Increased regional trade and a reliable
energy supply will bolster regional economic growth, as will improved cross-border management
of natural resources and climate risks vital to domestic economic development.

USAID/INDIA CDCS 2020-2024 RESULTS FRAMEWORK
II. COUNTRY CONTEXT

Despite India’s impressive gross domestic product (GDP) growth
and poverty reduction over the past decade, being one of the top
ten largest economies in the world, with an extensive
entrepreneurial culture and world-class scientific community which
leads in innovation, over a quarter (27.9%) of Indians still live in
multidimensional poverty. 1 This multidimensional poverty is largely
characterized by high child mortality, poor access to water and
sanitation, and low rates of school completion. Moreover, income
growth among the poorest 40% of Indians remains below that of
the rest of the population, effectively maintaining them in the
“shackles” of poverty. While India’s pro-poor development policies
have resulted in remarkable strides in alleviating poverty, it has
not enabled all Indians to “catch up,” leaving some, more marginalized groups unable to lift
themselves out of poverty and stay there.
1 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development
Initiative (OPHI). (2019). Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2019 - "Illuminating Inequalities".
Retrieved from UNDP website http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/mpi_2019_publication.pdf.

Limited access to adequate health care and education in India has tremendous economic
effects. It is estimated that more than 63 million people have been pushed into poverty every
year as a result of catastrophic out-of-pocket health expenditures. 2 TB alone is estimated to
have reduced India’s GDP by 0.7% in 2017 (approximately $18 billion USD). Despite near
universal access to primary school for all Indian children, about half of the students in Grade 5
are unable to read a Grade 2 level text, and 29% of students drop out before completing five
years of primary school. Reasons include a mix of socio-economic, attitudinal, and educational
factors such as poverty, low expectations of marginalized children (scheduled castes [SC] and
scheduled tribes [ST]) and girls), ill-adapted and inflexible curriculums, and lack of teacher
training and support.
As an unintended result of rapid growth, seven of India’s major cities are considered among the
top ten most polluted cities in the world according to particulate matter pollution scores. 3 The
estimated costs of air pollution in India were $505 billion in welfare losses or 7.7% of total GDP
in 2013; labor losses due to air pollution were estimated at $55 billion, 4 and India has the largest
burden worldwide of mortality due to air pollution (estimated at 1.7 million deaths in 2017). 5
Increasing temperatures and heat waves are exacerbating pollution impacts by directly
contributing to mortality 6 and by degrading air and water 7 quality. 8 Extreme heat is now
negatively impacting living standards over much of India. 9
With India at its heart, South Asia, and its high, steady growth rate and large population
concentration, is considered one of the most dynamic regions in the world. Existential water
scarcity and extreme weather events, which climate change will exacerbate, coupled with a lack
of interconnectedness have the potential to undermine current progress in the region. Intra-
regional trade accounts for only five percent of South Asia’s total trade, compared to 25 percent
in ASEAN countries. It costs more to trade within South Asia than between South Asia and the
world’s other regions. 10
Nevertheless, the dichotomy of widespread multidimensional poverty and an active economic,

entrepreneurial, and philanthropic Indian class creates a unique opportunity to leap ahead in
2 Berman, P., Ahuja, R. & Bhandari, L. (2010). The impoverishing effect of healthcare payments in India:
new methodology and findings. Economic and Political Weekly. 45, 65–71.
3 IQAir / AirVisual. (2018). 2018 World air quality report. Region and City PM2.5 ranking. Retrieved from:
https://www.airvisual.com/world-most-polluted-cities.
4 World Bank and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. (2016). The Cost of Air Pollution:
Strengthening the Economic Case for Action. Washington, DC: World Bank.
5 Health Effects Institute. (2019). State of Global Air 2019. Special Report. Boston, MA: Health Effects
Institute.
6 Mazdiyasni, O. et al. (2017). Increasing probability of mortality during Indian heat waves. Science
Advances 3: e1700066. Retrieved from - https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/6/e1700066/tab-pdf.
7 Moors, E. et al. (2013). Climate change and waterborne diarrhoea in northern India: Impacts and
adaptation strategies. Science of The Total Environment. Volumes 468-469, Supplement: S139-151.
Retrieved from - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.021.
8 Gordon, T. et al. (2018). Air pollution health research priorities for India: Perspectives of the Indo-U.S.
Communities of Researchers. Retrieved from - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6489448/.
9 Mani et al. (2018). South Asia’s Hotspots. The Impact of Temperature and Precipitation on Living
Standards. The World Bank. Retrieved from - https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28723.
10 Kathuria, Sanjay. (2018). A Glass Half Full: The Promise of Regional Trade in South Asia. South Asia
Development Forum. Washington, DC: World Bank.
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/30246.

self-reliance by crowding-in Indian investment and rallying India’s commitment and capacity to
address key sectors that hinder India’s development.
INDIAN PRIORITIES
India - its government and the private sector - is the largest driver and backer of development in
India. The GOI establishes regular development strategies and prioritizes national initiatives to
address what it considers the most pressing development needs in India. The Indian private
sector also works in tandem with the GOI and other stakeholders to create, test, and distribute
for-profit development innovations that improve the quality of life for Indians.
Among the various development strategies at work in India, the most

notable and comprehensive is the Strategy for New India at 75, 11 which
aims to sustain broad-based economic growth over the next three decades
by supporting the drivers of economic growth in India, improving
infrastructure, building the capacity of all Indians, and strengthening
governance. Similarly, the GOI sponsors “Missions” or initiatives to address
specific development issues such as water and sanitation, health, basic
education/literacy, and pollution. Additionally, India has longstanding
historical commitments to “South-South” development assistance,
technology transfer, and regional leadership, and is intensifying its external outreach - called
“Neighborhood First” - to take advantage of India’s geographic centrality, cultural kinship, and
economic/natural resource issues to strengthen ties with countries in South Asia.
UNPACKING THE JOURNEY TO SELF-RELIANCE COUNTRY ROADMAP

Under this strategy, USAID/India has prioritized certain metrics for investment to further India on
its J2SR trajectory. (See https://selfreliance.usaid.gov/ for further information on the J2SR.)
Based upon the country roadmap metrics, USAID/India has prioritized three distinct sectors for
action in this CDCS: Child Health, Biodiversity and Habitat Protection, and Education Quality.
Child Health, and maternal health and infectious diseases in general, will be a large theme of
the CDCS given the disproportionate effects of MCH, TB, and WASH on mortality in India
compared to the rest of the world. Health indicators paint a serious picture of high child and
maternal mortality, poor sanitation and access to clean water, and high rates of multidrug
resistant tuberculosis. India accounts for 20% of the global deaths among children under five.
Annually, 32,500 women die in childbirth. This represents 10% of all the women in the world
who die in childbirth each year. Biodiversity and Habitat Protection have been highlighted for
intervention as they are crucial for clean air and water and, inversely, the significant impact of
pollution on health. Education quality in India varies and does not always meet the needs of the
majority of children who are first generation learners, from poor and socially marginalized
groups, and lacking educational resources at home. Their best option is to learn at school; and
improving education outcomes requires targeted reforms throughout the education system - in
curriculum, pedagogy, education infrastructure, and mind-sets and practices related to gender
11NITI Aayog. (2018). Strategy for New India @ 75. Retrieved from - https://niti.gov.in/strategy-new-india-
75.

and social inclusion. Each additional year of schooling raises average annual GDP growth by
0.37% and individual earnings by up to 10%. 12
Across these sectors, the CDCS weaves three metrics - Government Effectiveness, Social
Group Equality, and Economic Gender Gap - as cross-cutting issues that define its strategic
approach. Despite high government effectiveness and social group equality, these issues are
very complex and fluctuate depending upon the region, sector,
and interlocutor. With the richest 10% of Indians owning 77.4%
of the country’s wealth, equality in many ways is a vague notion
rather than a reality. 13 Similarly, while India’s overall government
effectiveness continues to improve, effectiveness varies at the
national and sub-national level.
India has made important strides towards addressing the

Economic Gender Gap and improvements in the lives of women,
girls, and sexual minorities over the last 20 years; however,
women’s workforce participation has declined particularly among
urban educated women. Women’s participation and leadership
in government, business, and civil society is low relative to men. Women in India currently
spend 352 minutes per day on unpaid work, compared to the 52 minutes spent by men. This
chore gap is among the highest in the world. 14 Gender-based violence (GBV) also exists.
Gender inequality intersects with and exacerbates other forms of social exclusion based on
caste, religious minority status, sexual identity, and disability. Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual,
Transgender, and Intersex (LGBTI) and third gender persons experience stigma, discrimination,
and violence with high costs in terms of health, and job and productivity losses. India has the
highest absolute number of child brides in the world. Patriarchal norms of son preference, the
dominance of male authority, and a strict division of labor in care and paid work exacerbate
gender inequalities.
Most importantly to this CDCS is India’s Poverty Rate, despite its thriving and vibrant economy.
Poverty is an underlying issue that all future programs, projects, and activities used to
implement this CDCS will need to tie themselves back to and will ultimately be a measure of
USAID/India’s success.
STRATEGIC TRANSITION PLANNING

By the end of the CDCS period, USAID expects several strategic and programmatic transitions
to occur at various times and levels.
GENERAL DEVELOPMENT APPROACH

Previously, USAID’s general approach was acutely focused on developing partnerships
(particularly with local actors), innovation, and leverage. Using lessons learned from the last
CDCS period, USAID/India will transition its approach to focus more on ensuring that domestic
actors in India - both the public and private sectors - are able to finance self-reliance to address
12 UNESCO. (2010). Education Counts: towards the Millennium Development Goals. Paris: UNESCO.
13 Credit Suisse Research Institute. (2018). Global Wealth Report 2018. Zurich: Switzerland. Retrieved
from Credit Suisse - https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/reports-research/global-wealth-
report.html.
14 OECD Database. Employment: Time spent in paid and unpaid work by sex. OECD.Stat. Paris: OECD.

India’s remaining development challenges (such as education, tuberculosis, water and
sanitation, and pollution and its health impacts) in the most effective and productive ways.
Partnerships, innovation, and leverage will continue; however, they are a means to different
ends, including the establishment and transition of some programs to the U.S.-India
Development Foundation (US-IDF) - a new development model that will at some point culminate
as one of USAID’s legacies in India and which mobilizes private sector resources to resolve
India’s remaining development challenges. When enacted in the near future, the US-IDF will be
a flexible, new locally-registered entity strongly affiliated with USAID, that can:
1) implement the strategic use of development funding to catalyze private and commercial
capital towards development objectives, including impact investing and CSR capital;
2) build and support key markets and market players through loans, grants, and other
technical and financial support, including blended finance methods such as seed
funding, first-loss capital, and operating support grants; and,
3) fill gaps in and build upon existing USAID initiatives and programs in ways that are
complementary and additive to GOI efforts.
REDEFINING THE DEVELOPMENT RELATIONSHIP

USAID’s relationship with the GOI will evolve during the CDCS period as USAID/India redefines
not only how it collaborates with the GOI to scale-up successful tested concepts and mobilize
domestic resources to fund Indian development issues, but also how USAID partners with the
GOI on regional development issues. For example, USAID/India will increase engagement with
the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) to strengthen the effective implementation of India’s
Companies Act and the subsequent use of its corporate social responsibility (CSR) funds.
USAID will also collaborate with the MCA on innovative and blended financing opportunities that
the Ministry can adopt for its own needs. Similarly, USAID will increase collaboration with the
Ministry of External Affairs’ Development Partnership Administration (DPA). USAID recognizes
that Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) are central to civil society and its role in the
Journey to Self Reliance and will continue to partner with them as the development relationship
is redefined.
PRIVATE SECTOR RELATIONSHIP

During the CDCS period, USAID will intensify its use of innovative private sector engagement
models (see III. Strategic Approach for more information) in large part due to changes in the
country context and India’s innovative, complex, and diverse private sector, which allows for the
use of pay-for-success models like impact bonds and blended finance through the social impact
sector and commercial institutions. In 2013, the GOI mandated that companies of a certain size
spend 2% of profits on “CSR,” according to the guidelines established in Schedule VII of the
Companies Act. While creating an opportunity to amass CSR resources, local development
organizations face challenges accessing these funds, such as a lack of credibility, poor impact,
and narrow development opportunities. USAID/India believes that the CSR law creates a unique
opportunity for USAID to establish a new development model - the US-IDF – to work with the
GOI and to engage with the private sector to leverage funds to implement development
activities. While USAID will continue to pursue innovative partnerships in the lead up to the US-
IDF’s launch, it fully expects the US-IDF to model a new development approach to self-reliance
by self-raising and programming funds in key development areas.

III. STRATEGIC APPROACH
USAID/India’s strategic aims within the CDCS reflect a duality - one of domestically increasing
self-reliance and responsible handover of programming to the GOI, the US-IDF, and other
partners; and another of increased engagement to address regional issues. To implement these
aims, several strategic approaches or themes have emerged as critical to accomplishing
USAID’s goals in this country context.
INCLUSIVE DEVELOPMENT
There are critical challenges - most importantly inclusive development - that need to be
addressed in order to further the GOI’s effectiveness
to plan, finance, and implement solutions for India’s Inclusive Development:
continued development. USAID/India defines All stakeholders, including
“inclusive development” in this CDCS as: “All marginalized groups, who are
stakeholders, including marginalized groups, who are excluded from mainstream
excluded from mainstream development because of development because of (but not
(but not limited to) their gender, ethnicity, age, caste, limited to) their gender, ethnicity,
sexual orientation, disability, religion, cultural age, caste, sexual orientation,
practices, or poverty are instrumental in the disability, religion, cultural practices,
transformation of their own societies and need to be or poverty are instrumental in the
included throughout the development process to transformation of their own societies
achieve better development outcomes.” To illustrate, and need to be included throughout
this strategy considers the gaps identified in poverty, the development process to achieve
health, and education as effectively a problem of better development outcomes.
inclusiveness in a country context where great wealth
and social improvements are being created; however, these are not reaching large portions of
the population, particularly women, girls, and minorities. As evidence of this, in 2017, 73% of the
wealth generated went to the richest one percent, while 670 million Indians who comprise the
poorest half of the population saw a meager one percent increase in their wealth. 15 There is
high demand for skilled workers by employers in the private sector and elsewhere, but because
educational levels are low and unequal, it cannot be readily filled and prospects for economic
and social advancement remain limited among the poor, women, and other marginalized
people. Similarly, natural resource management and air pollution has an inclusiveness gap;
certain populations have access to and control over natural resources to the detriment of others,
resulting in displacement, poor health, and mortality. Furthermore, socially marginalized
individuals are disproportionately affected by climate change, highlighting the need for inclusive
development efforts to account for climate risks. 16 Studies demonstrate that this type of
inequality hampers long-term economic growth. 17
India has achieved great strides in bridging the inequities created through the caste system; the
GOI’s New India @ 75 strategy recognizes that these excluded groups based on caste should
be brought at par with the rest of the population to accelerate their socio-economic
development. Where feasible, USAID will include programmatic strategies to address all forms
15 Oxfam India. (2019). India: extreme inequality in numbers. Retrieved from

https://www.oxfam.org/en/india-extreme-inequality-numbers.
16 Islam, S. Nazrul and Winkel, John. (2017). Climate Change and Social Inequality. United Nations
Department of Economic & Social Affairs Working Paper 152. New York, New York: United Nations.
17 Joseph Stiglitz, in “Inequality and Economic Growth,” demonstrated that inequality creates economic
instability, shortens potential growth spells, and weakens overall medium-term growth.

of stigma and discrimination issues including caste, in collaboration with community
stakeholders and leadership.
By including all populations - men, women, youth, SCs, STs, persons with disabilities, LGBTI,
and other minorities - in access to services, decision-making, and strengthened governance
systems, USAID believes that a greater number of Indians can take part in India’s development
progress, therefore overcoming one of India’s last mile development challenges and ensuring
that all Indians are able to prosper. This CDCS has therefore intentionally shifted and elevated
inclusive development from a cross-cutting issue to one which requires specific attention at
every level of the strategy in order to achieve the goal statement.
PRIVATE SECTOR ENGAGEMENT (PSE)

Private sector engagement is the foundation to enterprise-led development in India and the
cornerstone of USAID/India’s strategic approach and overall business model. During the CDCS
period, USAID will intensify its use of new private sector engagement models by convening
industry, supporting enabling environment improvements, encouraging
incubation/demonstration, and facilitating investment/finance.
USAID/India has traditionally been a leader in innovative

private sector partnerships, with both U.S. and local actors
across a myriad of sectors such as health, WASH, energy,
and women’s empowerment. For example:
● In 2018, USAID established the public-private

USAID-India End TB Alliance to guide the acceleration of
innovative approaches to combat TB. In 2019, USAID and
the Alliance launched a “Corporate TB Pledge” that
encourages the private sector to increase resources to
combat TB, raise awareness of TB as a curable disease,
and, ultimately, improve TB health outcomes. Fifty-eight
American companies (including Johnson & Johnson, Exxon
Mobile, Lockheed Martin, Cepheid and Hewlett Packard
Enterprise) and Indian companies (including RJ Corp, GAIL India, NALCO, Bata India, the
Oriental Bank of Commerce, and the Apollo Tyres Foundation) pledged resources to the
Alliance. By adopting TB workplace policies, implementing TB workplace programs, and
funding TB programs through corporate social responsibility resources, these companies will
reach hundreds of thousands of people over the next few years.
● India has the world’s most ambitious renewable energy targets; however, the availability of
capital for private sector renewable energy project developers continues to remain a
challenge. Through USAID support on knowledge creation, market development, and
capacity building, the GOI was able to launch the country’s now-flourishing Green Bond
market, reaching $7 billion by the end of 2018 and unlocking large amounts of capital for
project developers to fund activities linked to clean energy.
Like inclusive development, this CDCS has intentionally shifted and elevated private sector
engagement from a cross-cutting issue (as it is normally addressed) to a transformative
principle on how USAID does business in India. In doing so, USAID/India not only desires to
hold itself accountable on private sector engagement, but illustrates its belief that it cannot
achieve CDCS objectives and goals without engaging the private sector.

This transformation is evident in the proposed US-India Development Foundation (US-IDF).
USAID’s relationship with India has evolved in parallel to the country’s growth, and the Mission’s
overall structure and programming has shifted over time to reflect the country’s development
progress. The US-IDF, a proposed locally-registered entity strongly affiliated with USAID, would
be well-suited to address key development challenges the Mission has identified, and has
aligned with GOI priorities, in WASH, TB, air pollution, and basic education.
The proposed US-IDF not only represents a new way to partner with the Government of India,
but also the vibrant private sector in India. It will address multiple strategic needs with both
development and blended finance. On the activity level, the proposed US-IDF will provide
crowd-in capital for innovation, incubation, and scale up. On the enabling environment level, the
proposed US-IDF will support multi-stakeholder alliances and strategies to address key issues
facing India’s development.
INDIA’S COMMITMENT AND LEADERSHIP

The GOI is the largest contributor to its development needs and accordingly takes ownership
and responsibility for strategic development and implementation in all technical areas of
development. Similarly, at the regional level, the GOI is a long-time partner supporting its
neighbors development needs.
Indian civil society also plays a large role in accountability, public dialogue, public partnership,
and service provision where government services are not able to meet all of the needs. As a
provider of livelihoods, basic services, and other needs, civil society remains an important
economic and social influencer on Indian society, completing the “picture” of India’s commitment
to development leadership.
The GOI’s willingness to hold itself accountable, to self-fund development solutions, and to
exercise responsible global leadership provides a unique opportunity within this CDCS to
leverage common goals, resources, and comparative advantages in pursuit of further self-
reliance in India, the South Asia region and globally. By integrating this strategic approach into
its programs, USAID/India expects to more effectively support the GOI for the eventual scale-up
and roll out of USAID’s tested development innovations and create a clear choice for partners in
the region and globally.
OTHER STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS
USG PARTNERS
Other USG agencies are at work in India, many of which complement CDCS efforts. Below are
some of those agencies and illustrative examples as to how they relate to the CDCS.
The Department of State, Foreign Commercial Service (FCS) and Trade and Development
Agency (USTDA) seek private sector feedback on investment issues, identify U.S. technology
and service providers, and disseminate investment opportunities within various sectors related
to this CDCS, including energy, healthcare, digital technology, and others.
The Department of Energy’s (DOE) knowledge of advanced energy technologies, national and
sub-national energy policies, and energy experts through DOE labs will be leveraged by USAID
to carry out technical assessments, increase knowledge exchange to advance deployment of

energy systems, and extend diplomatic reach within the GOI for further host-country support
and engagement in USAID’s energy programs.
The Department of Health and Human Services’ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
and National Institute of Health work towards developing new strategies to find a cure for MDR-
TB, TB and TB-HIV. They strengthen surveillance systems to identify and target hot spots;
transforming the world’s approach to diagnosing TB among HIV positive people, and
establishing best practices for treatment of drug-resistant TB.
The Office of the Global AIDS Coordinator (OGAC) oversees the President’s Emergency Plan
for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) funding, providing technical assistance to the GOI National AIDS
Control Organization for HIV testing services and treatment to at-risk hidden key populations.
The Department of State provides an array of assistance to Tibetan refugees and Tibetan
organizations through several programs managed by the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights
and Labor Affairs; the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration; and the Bureau of
Educational and Cultural Affairs. These programs include Fulbright scholarships through the
Tibetan Scholarship Program, institutional capacity building, governance and legislative
strengthening, and immediate health and education assistance for recently arrived refugees.
OTHER DONORS
Other donors are at work in India, many of which complement CDCS efforts. Below are some of
those donors and illustrative examples as to how their programs are related to the CDCS.
DONOR PRESENCE IN INDIA
DONOR NAME AREAS OF FOCUS RELATING TO THE CDCS AND CDCS DO
World Health Organization Polio, TB, HIV/AIDS, Health Systems Strengthening, Air Pollution (DO1 and
(WHO) DO2)
United Nations Development Disaster risk management (DRM) and disaster risk reduction (DO3)
Programme (UNDP)
Asian Development Bank Gender related issues and urban development (cross cutting)
The Joint United Nations Human Rights and Civil Society Organization Capacity Building (DO1)
Programme on HIV/AIDS
The Bill and Melinda Gates Co investors in Urban Health, Innovations in Health and in the Digital Health
Foundation Space (DO1)
The World Bank TB (focused on the private sector) and the health impacts of air pollution (DO1
and DO2)
German Development Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency, Environment, Urban Development,

Cooperation Agencies Natural Resource Management (DO1 and DO2)
Japan International Cooperation Water and Sanitation, Power and Energy, Forestry, Urban and Regional
Agency (JICA) Development (DO1 and DO3)
United Nations Children’s Fund Reproductive and Child Health, Child Development and Nutrition, WASH,
Quality Education, Adolescent Health, Social Inclusion, Disaster Risk
Reduction (DO1 and DO3)

STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS AND OUTREACH
With Inclusive Development, Private Sector Engagement, and GOI Cooperation at its core, this
CDCS places a premium on being able to effectively communicate USAID’s vision and
accomplishments to a wide array of audiences. Not only does USAID/India want to raise
awareness of its development programs, it actively seeks partners to become involved in
development innovations, to demand and promote better service delivery, and take ownership
of development transformations. While USAID will continue to promote traditional outreach
methods, it will redefine and focus its strategic communications strategy to better pinpoint the
audiences it seeks to influence, adapting its tools and messages to match.
IV. RESULTS FRAMEWORK
GOAL STATEMENT
USAID/India’s 2020-2024 CDCS Goal is “India Accelerates its Own Inclusive Development and
Fosters Enhanced Regional Connectivity.” This goal statement is purposefully divided into two
parts - “Inclusive Development” and “Regional Connectivity” - given the bifurcated nature of the
proposed strategy and results framework, which will both have an internal India focus and an
external regional focus.
USAID/India has invested heavily in the poverty reduction, health, and education for more than
20 years, yielding innovations, sustainable partnerships, and most importantly, gaining GOI
support to adopt best practices and innovation and scale them up to the general population.
Nevertheless, gaps continue to persist in several sectors. As stated in section III. Strategic
Approach, USAID/India perceives these gaps as a problem of inclusiveness. Inversely,
USAID/India believes that if these groups are included in development efforts, preventable child
and maternal deaths will decrease, the basic literacy rate will improve for all, pollution-related
mortality for all groups will decrease, multidimensional poverty will decrease, and the most
impoverished in India will start to catch up to the development of the rest of the population. By
building on innovations, past successes, and effective relationships, USAID believes that it can
include all Indians in access to services, decision-making, and strengthened governance
systems. The “low-hanging fruit” has already been picked in India concerning development
progress in these key areas; USAID therefore wants to adapt its past successes towards
reaching those that are not easy to find and that are habitually marginalized (intentionally or
unintentionally), including them in the Indian growth miracle so that they too can benefit from
increased self-reliance.
The Mission emphasized “Regional Connectivity” in the goal statement as an overarching term
so that it could speak broadly to the efforts needed to operationalize the U.S. Government’s
(USG’s) Indo-Pacific Vision by building government effectiveness in India and the Indo-Pacific
region in a host of sectors that would benefit from more open, free, and transparent cross-
border cooperation. Concretely, USAID believes that enhancing regional connectivity will
improve not only India’s self-reliance, but also the self-reliance of other countries in the region.
For example increased regional trade (through regional trade agreements, improved trade
policies, and better trade regulations) and a more reliable supply of energy (harmonized
regulations across countries, transmission networks) will increase economic growth within the
region, as will improved cross border management of climate and geophysical risks, as well as
natural resources vital to domestic economic development.

In large country contexts with finite development budgets, such as USAID/India, effective
geographic targeting maximizes impact and, when appropriate, serves as a catalyst for host
government scale up. USAID/India employs a people-focused (marginalized communities)
geographic targeting approach, coupled with GOI priorities to identify suitable locations for
activity interventions. Given this approach, activities are often implemented in multiple
geographic locations and can be spread across the country.
DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE 1
Entitled “Human Development of India’s Marginalized Populations Improved,” Development
Objective (DO) 1 relates directly to the Goal Statement’s mention of “Inclusive Development.”
Development Hypothesis: “IF the use of quality services and the practice of healthy behaviors
increases (IR 1.1); student’s reading skills improve (IR 1.2); the GOI’s effectiveness in education
and health reforms is enhanced (IR 1.3); and private sector investment for improved health and
education outcomes is bolstered (IR 1.4); THEN the human development of India’s marginalized
populations will be improved (DO 1).”
Development Hypothesis Narrative: DO 1 seeks to improve human development in India by

addressing inequalities among the most marginalized populations in India. Despite India’s
consistent GDP growth, the income of the poorest 40% of Indians is not growing as fast as the
rest of the population. India ranks 158th out of 195 countries in the global ranking on human
capital, largely due to low levels of health and education 18 and low human capital has been
linked to poorer GDP performance. 19 India ranks 122 out of 162 countries in the UNDP’s
Gender Inequality Index, highlighting the multi-dimensional challenges faced by women in
marginalization populations. 20 Gender-based violence, affecting educational achievement and
health outcomes, is a particularly significant challenge for women and girls in India. Attempts by
marginalized and impoverished Indians to access quality health, WASH, and education services
often pushes them into (or keeps them in) cycles of poverty due to the exorbitant cost of those
services and inherent social exclusion or stigma, ultimately preventing them from productive
participation in society and benefitting from the Indian growth story. Climate change will amplify
these challenges. 21 In a joint effort with the GOI (for later scale-up and roll-out across the
country) and the private sector (to determine private sector solutions, leverage resources, and
bring innovation), USAID/India will implement innovative health, water, sanitation and hygiene
(WASH), and education solutions for people who are typically denied full access to social and
economic programs, whether in practice or in principle, for either historical, cultural, political,
economic, or other contextual reasons. Activities will build upon prior successes, case studies,
or will test new methods in a local context to determine best practices. Improving outcomes in
these areas will help the marginalized break free (in targeted Indian states) from the cycle of
18 Lim, S. S. et al. (2018). Measuring human capital: a systematic analysis of 195 countries and
territories, 1990–2016. The Lancet, 392 (10154), 1217-1234.
19 Countries in the top 25% of human capital improvement between 1990 and 2016 registered 1.1%
higher annual GDP growth rate than those in the bottom 25%.
20 UN Development Programme. (2019). “Inequalities in Human Development in the 21st Century.
Briefing Note. India.” United Nations Human Development Report 2019. Retrieved from -
http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/IND.pdf.
21 For example, due to rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and other factors, 21 Indian
cities could run out of groundwater by 2020 and 40% of Indians may have no access to safe drinking
water by 2030. See Niti Aayog (2018). Composite Water Management Index. Retrieved from -
https://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/document_publication/2018-05-18-Water-index-Report_vS6B.pdf.

poverty that currently maintains their exclusion and marginalization from productive participation
in society and improve India’s human development.
CONTRIBUTING TO THE JOURNEY TO SELF-RELIANCE

To support India on its path to self-reliance, this DO will ensure that all segments of the
population are included in health and education development programs so that all can reap the
benefits of India’s development.
DO1 will address six of the seven Country Roadmap metrics prioritized by the Mission for this
CDCS period. Among these six, poverty rate is the most important metric for the Mission as it
relates to the overall goal of the DO statement. While beyond the manageable interest of
USAID/India, improvements in human development - specifically the ability of marginalized
populations to access quality health and education services - should translate into
improvements in the poverty rate. Secondly, Social Group Equality & Economic Gender Gap
also relate to the DO statement and specific attention will be paid to ensuring that all social
groups, including women, play an equal part in development (under this DO). The root causes
of gender inequality, including GBV, will be considered across the Mission’s portfolio. Education
quality and child health (and maternal health and infectious diseases in general) are the metrics
through which USAID/India expects to have the most direct impact; however, the Mission is
cognizant that given its limited geographic scope, much will depend upon the ability of the
government to implement wide-spread scale-up of the innovative interventions piloted in USAID
programs.
Given its broad technical scope, DO1 aligns with several GOI national initiatives and
commitments:
● National Health Mission 2017, comprising the rural health mission and the newer urban
health mission, promotes quality of care, and focuses on emerging diseases and investment
in promotive and preventive healthcare, with a high degree of involvement from the private
sector. In 2017, the GOI pledged to eliminate TB by 2025 and launched a bold National
Strategic Plan (NSP) for Tuberculosis (TB) Elimination (2017–2025). The NSP remains
ambitious, with the bulk of the burden for implementation shouldered by individual states.
● The first iteration of the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM)-Urban from 2014-2019 was a
GOI/Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MOHUA) nation-wide campaign to eliminate open
defecation through the construction of household-owned and community-owned toilets by
October 2, 2019, the 150th birth anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi. The second iteration of
SBM will be from 2020-2025 and will focus on fecal sludge management proliferation and
sustainability.
● The Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation is a GOI/MOHUA

nationwide campaign to accelerate outcomes related to water supply and wastewater
treatment and reuse in urban areas.
● The goal of the Jal Shakti Ministry’s National Mission for Clean Ganga/Namami Gange
Program is the effective abatement of pollution, conservation, and rejuvenation of the
Ganges River Basin with a focus on eight states in northern India.

● Launched in 2014, Padhe Bharat Badhe Bharat (Read India, Progress India) is designed
to improve comprehensive early reading, writing and early mathematics for children in
Classes I and II.
● The National AIDS Strategic Plan (2017-2024) paves the way for an AIDS-free India and
ensures sustainability through greater integration with the National Health Mission and
hence, efficient resource utilization. It will result in a more efficient use of resources existent
under health, including human resources, infrastructure, service centers, supply-chain and
information systems.
DO1 INTERMEDIATE RESULTS (IR)

Given USAID/India’s prior work in health, WASH and education, its experience in innovating and
testing technical development solutions in India, and its ability to mobilize both public and
private financing to scale-up and roll out those development innovations, USAID is well placed
to assist India in furthering its goals of human development for all population groups, in both
rural and urban areas. DO1’s IRs harmonize a variety of approaches to improve human
development in health, WASH, and education that will require shifts at an individual, community,
and societal level, all the while strengthening government institutions as well as catalyzing
markets to respond to the health (including WASH) and education needs of Indians.
IR 1.1: USE OF QUALITY SERVICES AND HEALTHY BEHAVIORS INCREASED: To effectively

increase the use of quality health services and increase healthy behaviors, USAID will invest in
activities to support the GOI to improve supply (access), increase demand, and reduce social
and financial barriers. This IR recognizes that rapid rates of urbanization require a differential
approach towards any sustained health impact in urban areas. Throughout this IR, USAID will
invest at the policy, community, and individual levels, addressing the entirety of health systems
needed to improve the planning, development, and delivery of services. USAID programs will
also apply significant resources and attention to ensure that social and financial barriers are
mitigated, including gender-based violence and the harmful gender norms that perpetuate
gender inequalities, so that all populations are able to access the quality services that they
require.
IR 1.2: STUDENTS’ READING SKILLS IMPROVED: Under this IR, USAID/India will focus on
historical high performing programs, with an effort to consolidate and complement mechanisms
that demonstrated substantial results in early grade reading (EGR). Moreover, USAID
interventions will address the low rate of schooling that has led to illiteracy in India. Less than
half of males aged six years and above have seven years of schooling as compared with 4.4
years for females. Poor, rural men and women and those in marginalized groups such as SCs
and STs have even less schooling. Women in the lowest wealth quintile have no schooling.
Main reasons for dropping out include “disinterest” (44% of boys and 25% of girls), affordability,
work for income (boys) and stay at home (for girls), and marriage for girls (8.1%). 22 To address
these gaps, USAID/India will improve teachers’ and other stakeholders’ knowledge and skills on
early literacy, support activities that develop and disseminate study materials available in
native/local languages and State languages as required, to help children learn with ease, build
the capacity of key state governments (as a pilot) to understand the role of children’s literature
in early grade literacy and formulate guidelines for selecting books for primary grade libraries,
22International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS). (2017). National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4),
2015-16: India.

and support learning and action around the impacts of gender and social inequalities on
learning.
IR 1.3: GOI EFFECTIVENESS IN EDUCATION AND HEALTH REFORMS ENHANCED: USAID will
invest significant time and resources to collaborate with the GOI to scale-up and sustain
innovations that USAID has successfully piloted in a variety of areas (early literacy, clean water
and sanitation services, TB diagnosis and treatment, maternal and child health, reproductive
health, family planning, and HIV/AIDS). USAID cannot match the resources that India invests in
these sectors; however, it can provide important assistance to render GOI interventions and
scale-up more effectively. While certain innovations and practices will be scaled-up during the
CDCS period, in some cases, the results of USAID’s investments may not be seen during the
life of this strategy. This is a limitation to USAID’s adaptive management. Nonetheless, USAID
has successfully piloted various interventions in health systems strengthening (supply chain
management systems, health management information systems) that have been scaled up and
institutionalized using GOI resources and health outcomes have improved in those targeted
states better than the national averages for key indicators. Similarly, successful basic literacy
models will be scaled up through NGO and government partnerships. The scale of work
(geographies and students reached) as well as improved reading skills will be indicative of the
success of the interventions.
IR 1.4: PRIVATE SECTOR ENGAGEMENT FOR IMPROVED HEALTH AND EDUCATION OUTCOMES
BOLSTERED: USAID will also increase private sector engagement and focus on the
development of innovative financing models (such as the US-IDF) to leverage CSR and
philanthropic funds, and accelerate other enterprise-driven solutions to address India’s
development challenges. Under this IR, USAID/India will seek to apply innovative financing
solutions to cost-effectively deliver state-of-the-art products and services to improve health and
education outcomes; harness CSR, grant capital, and philanthropic resources so that they can
be applied towards USAID goals; support use of CSR funds to implement high-impact gender
and socially inclusive projects; and leverage opportunities to catalyze business solutions for
processes along the entire value chain of delivering health, WASH, and education outcomes,
both in the public and the private sector.
Entitled “India’s Efforts to Reduce Pollution and Address Pollution Health Impacts Enhanced,”
DO2 links to the goal statement’s emphasis on “accelerating development,” particularly reducing
pollution and its health impacts so that self-reliance gains in economic productivity and poverty
reduction are not lost due to poor natural resource management, strains on the healthcare
system, and loss of human capital.
Development Hypothesis: “IF air pollution mitigation is improved (IR 2.1) and exposure to air
pollution is reduced (IR 2.2), THEN India’s efforts to reduce pollution and address pollution
health impacts will be enhanced (DO 2).”
Development Hypothesis Narrative: The sources of air pollution are diverse and manifold. On an
all-India, population-weighted basis, ambient fine particulate matter, PM2.5 (a subset of
particulate matter emissions - liquid or solid droplets - that have diameters less than or equal to
2.5 micrometers and pose the greatest health risk), is made of the following sources: residential
biomass; coal combustion; open burning; transportation; brick production; distributed diesel
generation; and anthropogenic dust. Collectively, energy processes, ranging from biomass
cooking, to power sector emissions due to fossil fuel combustion, and transportation, account

for roughly 73% of anthropogenic sources of ambient PM2.5, on a population-weighted and all-
India basis. 23
Use of biomass for cooking creates indoor and ambient pollution and is a significant contributor
to poor health and mortality. Residential biomass burning 24 was responsible for 267,700 deaths,
or nearly 25% of the deaths attributable to PM2.5, making it the largest anthropogenic source of
PM2.5 related to mortality in 2015. 25 Respiratory diseases are the second highest cause of
death in India, and women and children are disproportionately affected. An estimated 800
million days of productive work are lost due to compromised health from indoor pollution. Delhi
and other urban areas in India are subject to six times acceptable air pollution levels and half of
all children in Delhi suffer from lung disease from air pollution. 26 Extreme heat induced by
climate change will cause residents to consume more energy for cooling, increasing the amount
of fossil fuels consumed and contributing to India’s air pollution challenges. Additionally, the
warmer climate will lead to the formation of secondary pollutants, like ozone.
Given the tremendous burden of air pollution in India - both in terms of financial and human lives
lost - USAID/India considers that not addressing pollution and its health effects would ultimately
be detrimental to USG and GOI development interests in India and the region. Essentially, the
two IR’s reflect the two ways to address air pollution and its health impacts that are within our
manageable interest: (1) the amount of pollution generated by anthropogenic processes can be
reduced AND (2) measures must be taken to minimize exposure to air pollution once it has
been generated (particularly on human health). As such, efforts to reduce pollution from
conventional energy sources and/or replace these with non-polluting energy sources are the
primary ways to mitigate air pollution and climate change. Moreover, by addressing pollution in
India through a mix of international and local, public and private stakeholders, USAID sets the
stage for others to address the effects of air pollution in their countries sustainably. USAID/India
has had considerable success in implementing behavior change, health, and energy programs;
lessons learned and best practices will be used and applied to air pollution programs in order to
achieve results under this DO.

DO2’s approach is to identify and develop regulatory interventions for improved governance on
air pollution mitigation; leverage innovation for actualizing mitigation and reducing exposure;
and strengthen community governance systems to both drive pollution mitigation efforts and
reduce pollution health impacts. DO2 will also harness Indian private sector, philanthropic, and
corporate social responsibility resources to address pollution and its health impacts, and will
eventually collaborate with the US-IDF to further leverage private sector resources.
Furthermore, this DO will increase accountability and tools needed for effective regulations and
controls, and a suite of interventions that reduce pollution through clean energy programs and
interventions that better manage exposure to pollutants and reduce climate risks. DO2’s
23 GBD MAPS Working Group. (2018). Burden of Disease Attributable to Major Air Pollution Sources in
India. Special Report 21. Boston, MA: Health Effects Institute.
24 As of 2014, 42.7 percent of households in India relied on fuel wood, 38.1 percent on liquefied
petroleum gas (LPG)/piped natural gas, 9.4 percent on dung cakes, and 5.9 percent on crop residue.
25 GBD MAPS Working Group. (2018). Burden of Disease Attributable to Major Air Pollution Sources in
India. Special Report 21. Boston, MA: Health Effects Institute.
26 Dhaor, Ashni. (2015). “Delhi children suffer from lung damage as pollution levels spike daily.”
Hindustan Times. 4 June. [Online] Available at: http://www.hindustantimes.com/delhi-news/delhi-children-
suffer-from-lung-damage-aspollution-levels-spike-daily/story-MVLPbIw1OROc7dE7Cr0ieJ.html

technical approach to furthering India’s J2SR is fully aligned with GOI priorities, particularly the
newly launched National Clean Air Programme, which seeks to reduce two key measures of air
pollution by 2024, as well as GOI commitments to shift to cleaner energy sources and by
increasing forest cover from 24% to 33% by restoring or growing new forests on 6 million
hectares.
As such, DO2 will directly address three Country Roadmap metrics - Biodiversity and Habitat
Protection, Child Health (and health in general), and Government Effectiveness - and contribute
indirectly to reducing Poverty Rate and Social Group Inequality. By taking into account: 1) the
disproportionate and severe health effects of indoor pollution generated by biomass cooking
fuels on poor rural and urban women, men, and children; 2) support for women’s empowerment
throughout the energy value chain; and 3) innovations that improve women’s access to and use
of clean energy products; DO2 will ensure that women, marginalized groups, and youth are
more meaningfully engaged as actors in efforts to prioritize and address the challenges of
pollution, reducing social group inequality and narrowing the economic gender gap.
DO2 INTERMEDIATE RESULTS (IR)

Given USAID/India’s prior work in energy, its experience in building consensus and
partnerships, and its ability to rally subject matter experts on pollution, USAID is well placed to
assist India in furthering its goals of pollution reduction and abating the effects of pollution on its
population. DO2’s IRs are institutional approaches among three major stakeholders -
communities, government, and the private sector - to build capacity, mobilize resources, and
strengthen policy for change on pollution.
IR 2.1: AIR POLLUTION MITIGATION IMPROVED: To effectively improve air pollution mitigation in
India, IR 2.1 links policies, evidence/science, behavior change, technology, and the private
sector together in an effort to consolidate the knowledge, means,
and demand for reducing air pollution.
● Knowledge: Air pollution mitigation begins with linking

science to action. USAID will improve the capacity of GOI
regulators to assess the appropriate courses of action to
reduce air pollution, the required regulations for
implementation, and measures for enforcement. A part of
this knowledge will be examining the multiple benefits of
sustainable landscapes, including reduced greenhouse
gas emissions and mitigated air pollution impacts, both
directly and indirectly. USAID will convene a wide variety
of stakeholders, including private sector emitters,
regulators, and communities.
● Means: USAID will engage with the private sector to identify and deploy infrastructure or
technology inputs needed to mitigate air pollution.
● Demand: To change behavior and practices related to emissions, USAID will work at
both the individual and community levels as well as at the policy level. USAID will also
work with GOI counterparts to accelerate deployment of non-polluting energy sources
such as renewable energy.

IR 2.2: EXPOSURE TO AIR POLLUTION REDUCED: With one of the world’s highest rates of
premature mortality due to air pollution, this IR seeks to counter the rise in non-communicable
diseases typically associated with air pollution, including stroke, heart attack, lung cancer and
chronic lung disease. These health impacts of air pollution are exacerbated by increasing
temperatures driven by climate change. Reducing exposure to air pollution can strengthen
resilience to climate impacts. To improve the use of empirical evidence tailored to the
individual's ability to act on that evidence, USAID will work with a variety of health professionals
to translate research into action so that evidence can inform the advice that health professionals
give to patients, or how behavior may need to be altered to reduce their exposure. Efforts will
also address the severe effects of indoor health pollution on women and families and will focus
on people who have challenges benefitting from our programs. USAID will leverage behavior
change experience at the individual, community, and policy levels and expand USAID/India’s
current health programming to more effectively incorporate environmental health.
Entitled “Sustainable Economic Growth and Development in the Region Enhanced,” DO3 is the
driving force behind the Goal Statement’s reference to fostering enhanced connectivity across
countries.
Development Hypothesis: “IF India’s development collaboration is advanced (IR 3.1), and
regional economic growth systems are strengthened (IR 3.2), and regional natural resource
management is improved (IR 3.3); THEN sustainable economic growth and development in the
region will be enhanced (DO 3).”
Development Hypothesis Narrative: The DO’s underlying approach is to support the GOI’s to
engage in and finance development activities across the region and globally, recognizing that
there are significant social, cultural, historical, and gender barriers inherent in all these sectors
(e.g., energy, DRM, digital connectivity, cross-border trade, access to finance and investment)
throughout the region that must be addressed. By addressing key regional systems and issues
that hinder continued economic growth and development, USAID believes that it will be able to
influence sustainable growth for countries in the region, all the while promoting stability and
transparency.
While DO3 will measure its success through economic growth and development in South Asia,
many of the interventions proposed in this DO will have wide ranging benefits beyond the South
Asia region, whether it be bolstering partnerships with the GOI in Africa, improving the enabling
environment for foreign investment, or reducing transnational environmental crime, among
others.
CONTRIBUTING TO THE JOURNEY TO SELF RELIANCE

DO3 is specifically designed to improve Government Effectiveness through enhanced
collaboration to support Indian leadership and external assistance; however, it will also increase
self-reliance across different countries within the region, through various connectivity programs
in energy, digital technology, trade, environmental protection, infrastructure safeguards, and
climate and disaster risk management. USAID will collaborate with India in its role as a
development leader supporting regional connectivity in line with the USG’s Indo-Pacific Vision
and South Asia Strategy.
DO3 INTERMEDIATE RESULTS (IRS)

Given USAID/India’s history of programming and partnering with the GOI on development
assistance and its experience in building partnerships throughout the region, and globally,
USAID is well placed to build upon previous work to establish joint development partnerships in
third countries. DO3’s IRs are based on proven effective programming and leverage India’s
experience to advance the GOI’s objective of becoming a leading development partner globally.
IR 3.1: INDIA’S DEVELOPMENT COLLABORATION ENHANCED: To effectively enhance India’s

development collaboration in the region and globally, IR 3.1 leverages both USAID’s and India’s
comparative advantages and achievements to improve economic outcomes in the region. Under
this IR, USAID/India will collaborate with India's Development Partnership Administration (DPA)
to provide technical assistance to countries (regionally and globally) in a variety of areas,
including: energy; natural resource management; digital technology and connectivity; trade and
competitiveness; democracy and governance; agriculture; health; gender equality; and disaster
risk management. USAID will also facilitate partnerships with USAID Missions in other countries
where DPA is interested in amplifying its work. USAID will provide support to India and countries
in the region to be better prepared and more resilient to the impact of disasters. USAID aims to:
i) reduce climate and disaster risks by enhancing institutional capacities; ii) improve disaster risk
reduction knowledge management; iii) help South Asian countries to mainstream disaster risk
management into development planning; and iv) support establishing the Coalition for Disaster
Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) to serve as a platform to generate and exchange knowledge on
different aspects of disaster and climate resilient infrastructure with country representatives in
the region and globally.
Across this DO’s IRs, USAID will promote internationally-accepted standards-based competition
to attract foreign direct investment and spur intra-regional investment. USAID will identify and
create partnerships with private sector enterprises across multiple industries, whether
headquartered in the U.S. or the Indo-Pacific region, with unique skills, technologies, and/or
expertise that desire to act as leaders in addressing development challenges in the region.
Throughout this work, USAID will make explicit our commitment to and requirements for gender
and social inclusion.
IR 3.2: REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH SYSTEMS STRENGTHENED: To achieve the USG’s

vision for a free, open, and secure Indo-Pacific region, in which all nations are independent,
strong, and prosperous, USAID will improve open trade, investment, and connectivity. This IR
addresses constraints on the region’s commercial competitiveness and will aim to strengthen
intraregional connectivity to bolster economic growth by: building the capacity of partner
governments; promoting women-led businesses’ engagement in regional trade; facilitating
business-to-business ties; and promoting free, fair, and reciprocal trade. Specifically:
● USAID/India will support the USG’s Digital Connectivity and Cybersecurity Partnership to
enhance the capacity of countries in the region to implement and regulate digital economy
standards, consistent with international best practices, and partner with the private sector on
innovative digital approaches to address common development challenges, including cyber
hygiene and upskilling, online GBV, and gender inequities in digital literacy and access.
● USAID/India will strengthen South Asia’s interconnectivity, working with USAID Missions in
the region to promote commerce and investment, mobilize financial services, support digital
financial inclusion, and improve private sector competitiveness by: aligning legal, regulatory,
and policy frameworks to facilitate cross border trade, clarifying import and export
compliance requirements, reducing barriers to doing business, and strengthening regulatory
capacity.

● With the region’s annual infrastructure investments falling far short of what is required,
USAID/India will strengthen Indo-Pacific governments’ ability to implement and manage
sustainable, transparent, and high-quality resilient infrastructure projects by supporting
transparent procurement processes, assisting in prioritizing public-private partnerships in
infrastructure, and implementing activities to support domestic resource mobilization.
IR 3.3: REGIONAL NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT IMPROVED: As part of USAID’s strategic

approach to advancing America’s vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific, USAID will accelerate
energy sector transformation, advance environmental safeguards, and reduce transnational
environmental crime. This IR aims to strengthen intra-regional connectivity to advance natural
resource management by: building the capacity of partner governments, strengthening legal
frameworks for natural resource management, and ensuring enforcement of environmental
safeguards; fostering private sector engagement on sustainable supply chains, energy sector
transformation, and safeguards; promoting the adoption of international environmental
standards; and supporting water and energy security, as well as legal and sustainable forestry
and fishing. Specifically:
● USAID/India will support the USG’s Asia EDGE (Enhancing Development and Growth
through Energy) initiative to assist countries in the South Asia region to scale up USAID’s
work to develop integrated, smart, secure, profitable and stable energy sectors; promote
utility modernization through digitization and performance enhancement; foster regional
energy connectivity; attract increased levels of private sector investment; and accelerate the
adoption of regional and bilateral competitive energy markets that will increase Asian
households’ and businesses’ access to power.
● USAID/India will assist partner countries to formulate and implement environmental

safeguards, which will help protect valuable natural resources, support economic growth
and improve governance.
● USAID/India will support activities to combat wildlife poaching and trafficking, and illegal
logging.
SPECIAL OBJECTIVE
USAID/India has created a special objective (SO) entitled “Economic and Cultural Resilience of
Tibetan Communities in India and Nepal Strengthened” to capture a recurring earmark for the
Tibetan communities in India and Nepal. Rather than continue to treat Tibetan communities’
funding and programs as an outlier, this CDCS is proactive in incorporating, defining, and
measuring assistance to Tibetan communities. While this assistance does not directly relate to
the CDCS goal statement, it supports the USG’s commitment to assist Tibetans to achieve their
goal of self-reliance and sustainability as outlined under the Central Tibetan Administration’s
Five-Fifty Vision.
Since the Dalai Lama fled from Tibet to India in 1959, the GOI has maintained a policy of
accepting Tibetan refugees and provided land in various States where these refugees could
establish formal settlements. Since that time, refugees have also fled Tibet for Nepal and
Bhutan, and various settlements were established for them there. Currently, more than 100,000
Tibetan refugees live in India and Nepal, mostly in 39 settlements. The settlements provide
shelter and livelihoods, and preserve Tibetan culture and national identity.

Development Hypothesis: “IF sustainable livelihoods are improved (IR 1), and Tibetan
institutions and cultural heritage are strengthened (IR 2), THEN the economic and cultural
resilience of Tibetan communities in India and Nepal are strengthened (SO).”
Development Hypothesis Narrative: Recent trends are exacerbating the sustainability of the
settlements and the ability of Tibetan refugees to preserve their culture and national identity.
More refugees are moving from the settlements to the major cities of India and Nepal or are
moving from India and Nepal to Europe or North America. Also, the number of refugees fleeing
the Tibetan plateau has declined for various reasons. As a result of these trends, the population
in the settlements is in significant and rapid decline, especially among young families and
working age adults. Meanwhile, global attention on Tibetan independence and autonomy has
diminished since peaking in the 1990s and anecdotal evidence suggests that external donations
to organizations working on these issues have also declined.
Additionally, the integrity and stability of the institution of the Dalai Lama - the importance of
which to Tibetan society, culture and politics cannot be overstated - is in question given his
advancing age. This is particularly important because it underscores the urgent need to
strengthen the ability of the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) to act as a leader for Tibetan
refugees and potentially for Tibetans in Tibet who currently do not have a strong connection to
their government in exile. Although the Dalai Lama abdicated all political power to the
democratically elected leadership of the CTA in 2011, there may be political instability once he
is gone.
By improving livelihoods and strengthening local Tibetan institutions, USAID/India believes that
it can counter the outflow of migration from Tibetan settlements, reinforce local institutions to
preserve and defend Tibetan culture, and strengthen the overall management and sustainability
of Tibetan governing institutions.

As the population size of Tibetan settlements is small relative to the populations of the two main
host countries (94,203 Tibetans in India and 13,514 in Nepal) this SO will have no direct
contribution to either Nepal or India’s J2SR. However, while there is no Country Roadmap for
these communities, the J2SR provides a useful framework for discussing how the SO will
interact with Tibetan exile communities, and is illustrated in the IR sections.
The CTA currently operates under a policy framework known as the “Five-Fifty Vision” which
calls for maximizing efforts to resolve the Tibet issue in five years based on the Middle Way
Approach while ensuring the CTA’s resilience to sustain the Tibetan freedom struggle and
preserve Tibetan culture for the next fifty years if needed. The Five-Fifty Vision is concerned
with sustaining Tibetan culture, strengthening Tibetan education, improving Tibetan public
health, and improving the economic development of the Tibetan exile community.
SPECIAL OBJECTIVE INTERMEDIATE RESULTS (IRS)

The SO has two IRs which will: 1) support an integrated multi-sector approach toward
livelihoods development combining strategies to increase household incomes and reduce
underemployment, improve basic education quality, increase access to higher education, and
improve community health; and 2) strengthen key Tibetan institutions essential to ensuring
continuity of effective development strategies and long-term impact on community self-reliance
and resilience.

IR 1: SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS IMPROVED: This IR links together two intertwined aspects of
improved livelihoods - economic opportunity and human capital - all the while tethering
investments and needs back to local communities and incorporating gender empowerment in
project design and implementation.
● To increase economic opportunity, USAID will promote skill development, entrepreneurship

promotion, agribusiness development and increasing access to finance. Investments in this
will be community focused to improve the coherence of settlements, contribute to cultural
preservation, and counter emigration from settlements to the rest of India or abroad.
● To improve human capital - education and health - USAID/India will work closely with the
CTA’s Department of Education and Department of Health to improve basic and higher
education policies, infrastructure, and outcomes; and strengthen health systems, health
financing, and service delivery.
Given the vast differences in Tibetan refugee communities across India and Nepal, USAID will
integrate community-based planning throughout this Special Objective to maximize local
participation and ownership of the development process. USAID/India will actively solicit
community and beneficiary input from the various stakeholder groups within Tibetan settlements
for each activity or sub-activity with a special emphasis on incorporating gender perspectives in
the design, implementation, and monitoring of all program activities.
IR 2: TIBETAN INSTITUTIONS AND HERITAGE STRENGTHENED: Strengthening Tibetan

institutions and the cultural heritage of Tibetan refugee communities is important to shore up the
sustainability of other investments in IR 1 to improve the resiliency of Tibetan communities, and
preserves and maintains Tibetan identity from those that wish to weaken it. With recent
developments in Tibet and the demographic changes within Tibetan refugee communities,
sustaining Tibetan culture has become a critical challenge. Fewer Tibetans are joining monastic
institutions or pursuing traditional Tibetan arts and crafts; there has been a disturbing decline in
the use of Tibetan language among Tibetan families and in a broad range of social, educational,
and livelihood situations while living in exile.
IR 2 will strengthen the Tibetan institutions critical to ensuring the continuity of development
strategies and long-term impact on community self-reliance and resilience, focusing in particular
on the CTA, partner organizations affiliated with the CTA, and institutions contributing to
community resilience through culture preservation. USAID will bolster the CTA’s institutional
capacity, effectiveness, and sustainability as it is critical for the efficient delivery of services to
Tibetan refugees and to achieve community self-reliance over the long term. USAID/India will
also support a myriad of cultural institutions to improve their performance skills, develop cultural
and performance curricula, improve multimedia equipment, build and improve libraries,
strengthen museum curation, and provide small grants to individual artists and small cultural
organizations. Finally, USAID/India will improve the ability of CTA institutions to manage
external resources, in particular from bilateral and multilateral development partners, in
accordance with international best practices and the procedural and regulatory frameworks of
those partners, so that the CTA is better able to secure external resources.
V. MONITORING, EVALUATION, AND LEARNING

USAID/India will adopt Collaborating, Learning and Adapting (CLA) principles and approaches
throughout the CDCS period to generate and share learning for adaptive management, and

facilitate effective collaboration with the GOI, private sector, and civil society to assist in the
Mission’s understanding and planning for furthering India on the J2SR.
In order to ensure that the Mission is advancing toward these goals and to understand the
impact of its various activities, USAID/India will develop and implement a robust Monitoring,
Evaluation, and Learning (MEL) strategy that will guide the implementation of the CDCS and
ensure learning and adaptation as needed. The strategy will foster a results-oriented learning
culture consistent with USAID’s CLA and Evaluation policies. The Mission will adapt its
implementation approaches by redefining and operationalizing strategic frameworks to inform
the new CDCS, such as the J2SR and Private Sector Engagement policy.
As a first step towards setting up a MEL strategy for the CDCS, the Mission will develop a
Performance Management Plan (PMP) consisting of three components. The Mission will update
the PMP continually over the life of the CDCS taking into consideration the design of new and
amended projects and activities to ensure plans are in place for effective monitoring, evaluation,
and organizational learning.
1. The monitoring component will include performance indicators, baseline and targets,
including J2SR monitoring with context indicators to verify the Results Framework’s
assumptions and risks. The Mission will use its Geographic Information System (GIS) in
close coordination with the overall MEL process to link data collection, analysis, and
visualization services with assessments, portfolio reviews, and annual Performance Plan
and Report. This will strengthen the Mission’s ability to effectively design, implement,
evaluate, monitor, and learn from development programming and clearly communicate
its impact. Innovative data analysis and various maps and graphics will use geographic
data to assist USAID/India in understanding, acting upon, and communicating
information related to a range of development topics internally and externally.
2. The evaluation component will develop and implement a multi-year evaluation plan for
assessing the effectiveness of outcomes, scale-up and sustainability of CDCS
interventions, including progress towards achieving J2SR. Evaluation studies will test the
development hypotheses that the Mission has postulated and whether it has
successfully facilitated inclusive and innovative solutions, partnerships with the private
sector, leveraging of resources, and regional cooperation. The Mission will evaluate the
effectiveness, efficiency and outcome of its interventions for the Indo-Pacific Vision and
regional cooperation, and revise its strategy based on the results.
3. The CLA component will include a comprehensive plan outlining knowledge

management for learning and adaptive management. In addition, the Mission will
continuously review information and data pertaining to various activities and approaches
through portfolio reviews, implementing partner workshops, GOI review meetings, pause
and reflect sessions, and mid-course stocktaking of the CDCS. CLA will also assess
whether climate risk management measures are effectively safeguarding investments or
adjustments are needed.
ANNEX
CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSIS

ANNEX: CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSIS
Purpose
The climate change analysis summarized in this annex aims to inform the CDCS (see ADS 201
mat, Climate Adaptation in Country and Regional Strategies), make it responsive to climate
risks, and help ensure it strengthens India’s resilience and self-reliance. The preliminary results
of the climate risk screening are summarized in Part I of this analysis. Parts II and III outline
opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in India.
Part I. Climate Risk Screening
Methods / Approach
The India mission integrated climate change in the CDCS development in compliance with ADS
201.mat. In May 2019, the mission, with USAID/Washington support, screened climate risks to
each of the intermediate results (IRs) under the four development objectives (DOs) in the
proposed results framework (RF). The screening focused on these three guiding questions:
● How might projected changes in climate stressors affect the IRs (and DOs)?
● Can the risks be addressed within the strategy? If not, what steps must be taken during
project and activity design to address the risks?
● What opportunities (in policy or practice) exist to strengthen overall resilience or achieve
multiple development objectives?
The mission used USAID’s climate risk screening and management tool to answer these
questions. Keeping in mind India’s adaptive capacity, DO teams rated potential climate risks to
each IR based on their own expert knowledge judgment, review of relevant sectoral annexes,
India’s climate risk profile, and available reports. The draft climate risk screening summary table
was then updated and finalized following review by colleagues throughout the mission.
Background / Country profile

Climate risk management (CRM) is crucial in India for several reasons noted in India’s second
Biennial Update Report (BUR-2). India’s climate is heterogeneous, but driven primarily by
seasonal monsoons. About half of India’s 1.2 billion people depend on agriculture, the
productivity of which is already being affected by heat stress and longer dry spells. A third of the
population now lives in urban areas, which are experiencing more frequent and severe heat
waves. Hundreds of millions of people live in coastal and low-lying areas making them
vulnerable to flooding from increasingly strong storms.
Variation in temperature and precipitation patterns, drought, floods, etc. within a year, inter-
annually, and geographically, and uncertainties associated with these climate variables indicate
the need to consider climate risks during the design and implementation of projects and
activities.
Historical data and future climate projections

India’s historical climate trends include increased average annual temperatures with
substantially stronger warming over the last 30 years; increased frequency and intensity of
heavy precipitation events; overall losses in glacial cover in the last 40 years; and rise in sea
levels on the east coast (Sea of Bengal) of up to 20 cm in the last 50 years. Current climate mid-
century projections indicate:
● Continued increase in average annual temperatures with a tendency for increased
variability, and with temperatures exceeding current climate by 10% ultimately leading to
diminished glacial extent and continued sea level rise by 100-400 mm,
● Increased frequency of intense precipitation, and
● Wetter wet seasons and drier dry seasons with increased dry spells in the east.

Climate Stressors and risks
In recent years, India experienced various extreme weather events that impacted people’s lives
in direct and indirect ways. Climate stressors such as increased temperature and heat waves,
increased drought and frequency of extreme precipitation, more extreme rainfall events, severe
dry seasons, as well as sea level rise have significantly impacted key and vulnerable sectors
including health, agriculture, and water.
In the health sector, increased temperature and heat waves, as well as increased drought and
frequency of extreme precipitation resulted in strained sanitation systems and low quality water
sources which lead to increased onset of diarrheal disease and higher rates of child mortality.
The 2015 heat wave that hit India in 2015 claimed 2,330 lives in three States, and the 2013
heavy rainfall event in Uttarakhand led to flooding that affected 4,200 villages and left more than
5,500 dead.
Extreme weather conditions in addition to sea level rise pose significant risks to the water and
agricultural sectors which are interlinked. Extreme weather also impacts wildlife habitat and
biodiversity in general. India’s water resources are now under considerable stress due to
population growth, increased production of water-intensive crops, pollution and lack of
government planning. In a country where 50% of precipitation falls in just 15 days, and over
90% of river flows occur in just four months, water resources are already over stressed.
Stronger droughts and higher temperatures will exacerbate this stress especially in years where
monsoon rains are late, end early, or are diminished leading to decreased quantity and quality
of water.
Drought is already an issue in India; in early 2016, after two years of below average rainfall,
India’s 91 reservoirs were at just 17% of capacity, leaving 300 million people with water
shortages. Considering that rainfed agriculture accounts for 60% of cultivated area and 40% of
national production, drought is expected to significantly impact the agricultural sector causing
annual losses of more than $7 billion by 2030. Depleted groundwater supply around many cities
has led to increased reliance on surface water supplies that are highly seasonal and susceptible
to contamination by flooding and depletion by drought. The city of Chennai for example is
already on the cusp of running out of water.
The net loss in Himalayan

glacial cover in recent decades
has exposed communities that
depend on glacial water to
water shortages during the dry
season and flooding during the
wet season. The progressive
loss of glaciers will reduce the
available water for agriculture,
drinking and hydropower
production. Increasing
groundwater extraction for
agriculture and development in
coastal areas has already caused saline intrusion issues in areas of Kerala and Goa. Reduced
fresh water flows in coastal aquifers during drought may increase the risk of saline intrusion,
which will be further exacerbated by sea level rise.

The World Bank’s analysis of the most climate-vulnerable areas (‘hotspots’) in India (see Mani
et al. 2018, India Snapshot accessible here) found that most of India is already experiencing
negative effects of temperature on living standards (see maps, right), and that additional
warming would likely further negatively affect living standards. The severity of these hotspots
could be reduced, the analysis found, by using climate information to improve development
outcomes.
Conclusions and Recommendations

India’s people, ecosystems, and economy are already experiencing the negative impacts of
climate variability and change. Current and projected climate risks have prompted the
government (GOI) to make commitments to climate mitigation and to incentive water resource
management. The GOI has also demonstrated its capacity to avoid catastrophic impacts,
including minimizing loss of life, when faced with typhoons and other extreme climate events.
This commitment and the substantial capacity of the private sector, academia and civil society
can be leveraged to focus greater attention on managing the climate risks as well as on rapidly
decarbonizing its economy.
The climate risk screening found that substantial climate risks, if not managed, could negatively
affect the ability of USAID India to achieve the first three of its development objectives (DO).
The teams working on DOs 1, 2 and 3 concluded that climate risks could negatively affect their
abilities to achieve the intermediate results envisioned under those objectives. However, the DO
2 team concluded that most of the activities themselves will very likely not be negatively
affected. All three teams concluded that additional, more targeted, in-depth, and specific
analyses should be conducted during project and activity design. The team working on the
special objective (SO) regarding Tibet concluded that climate risks would very likely not affect
the technical work envisioned under the SO nor the desired outcomes.
The main recommendations coming out of this analysis are:
1. Acknowledge in the Results Framework and Strategy narrative that climate risks, if not
thoughtfully managed, could negatively affect the mission’s ability to achieve its
important and ambitious intermediate results and objectives.
2. Integrate climate risk management considerations in the Strategy narrative as
appropriate.
3. Include climate-relevant indicators in the Strategy’s Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning
plan as appropriate.
4. Follow through on recommendations in the climate risk screening to conduct more
targeted assessments during project and activity design.
5. Leverage the GOI’s commitment to mitigating climate change in the energy and forestry
sectors and its commitment to reducing air pollution. This commitment is already
acknowledged in the first three DOs, but USAID India could encourage the GOI to take
stronger actions for more systemic changes in the water and health sectors (both of
which are very climate-sensitive).

Table 1: Climate Risk Screening Summary
Risk Rating of DO or IR Integration Next steps Opportunities
Rate the potential climate risk to each DO into Strategy Is monitoring and/or further analysis of What opportunities exist to
or IR and describe the risks and adaptive risks needed to inform project achieve multiple development
How does the
capacity. Indicate the timeframe applied in planning, design, and objectives or realize co-benefits by
strategy address
the analysis. implementation? What needs to be addressing climate risks?
the climate risks?
done at the project and/or activity
1. How might climate change issues Reference the
levels to address the risks?
interplay with the DO and IRs (Target page number in the
population/institutions/context/operating strategy. Note in
environment/intended results)? particular if a Goal,
2. What opportunities for mitigation or the DO, or an IR or
adaptation to the effects of climate sub-IR specifically
change exist (at various levels of policy, addresses the
practice approaches etc.)? risks.
3. How can the DO/sector integrate or
consider the above issues in the
Results Framework or strategic
approaches/choices the DO would like
to make?
DO 1: Human
Development of
Marginalized Populations
in India Improved
Timeframe (years): 10-15
years
Geography: Pan India and
priority geography as defined by
GOI
IR 1.1: Use of quality

products and services and
healthy behaviors
increased | Sub-IRs:
● Access to quality
products and services for
improved health
outcomes strengthened
Approved for Public Release

● Demand at community
and individual levels
bolstered
● Social and financial
barriers reduced
Rating: Moderate (generally); To be filled ● Once GOI’s priority ● Take advantage of GOI’s
high (some locations) once strategy geographies are defined, efforts to improve water
USAID will conduct a more and sanitation
narrative in-depth climate risk management
Adaptive Capacity developed assessment to devise ● Take advantage of GOI’s
● Existing guidelines for sewerage specific measures to disaster risk management
and sewage treatment (Ch. 2) address the climate risks. efforts to reduce the likelihood
and stormwater management ● Examples of CRM that extreme climate-related
infrastructure take climate risks measures to be explored events result in disease
into consideration during project and activity outbreaks
● GOI’s capacity to generate design in consultation with ● Coordinate with other donors
information is strong, but GOI include: working to improve agricultural,
effective information sharing is o Developing contingencies health, water, and natural
weaker for supply chain resources management outcomes
● Human capacity exists at disruptions, including pre-
various levels to address risks positioning of supplies and
(though these risks not medicines
generally framed as climate o Strengthening initiatives for
risks) adoption of healthy
● Significant domestic resources behaviors by incorporating
and GOI commitment to allocate messages on climate risks
them for WASH and health o Assisting the most water
outcomes stressed states, cities, and
● Highly committed and capable municipalities to forecast
civil society water needs and develop
● Strong capacity to test & scale strategies (e.g., rainwater
adoption of effective strategies harvesting and storage,
and technologies (e.g., Swach improved use efficiency,
Bharat) conservation) to ensure
adequate supplies
o Bolstering training for
Climate Risks: health providers to raise
● Potential increases in awareness regarding
communicable and non- potential climate risks
communicable diseases due to
temperature increases and
rainfall changes

disproportionately affect at-risk
groups, including children (see
WHO 2015), exacerbating
social and financial barriers to
quality care
● Loss of livelihoods and homes
due to extreme weather events
could increase risky behaviors
including transactional and/or
unprotected sex or result in
trafficking into sex trade during
evacuations (low risk)
● Increasing scarcity of safe
drinking water due to
temperature increases, drought,
and floods (which may damage
water provisioning and
sanitation systems) may impede
or cause setbacks in adoption of
healthy behaviors
● Spikes in prices of healthy foods
due to crop failure or reduced
productivity from heat stress
may impede or cause setbacks
in adoption of healthy food
choices
● Possible disruptions to supply
chains due to damage to
facilities from extreme weather
● Potential storm and flood
damage to health facilities and
records
● Potential disruptions to care if
health providers themselves are
affected by floods, storms, and
other extreme weather
IR 1.2: Students’ reading

skills improved| Sub-IRs:
● Knowledge and skills on
early literacy of teachers

and other education
stakeholders improved
● Reading time and
resources in and outside
school increased
Rating: Low to Moderate ● Conduct more targeted ● Coordinate with other donors
depending on implementation assessment during project providing support to GOI on
and activity design to re- education to enhance the
site evaluate rating of listed (and capacity of teachers to assess
any other) climate risks once and address climate risks
Adaptive Capacity: additional site-specific
● Although India has a world- information is available
class scientific community,
highly ranked universities and
globally influential think-tanks,
and a dynamic entrepreneurial
and philanthropic class, it has
300 million illiterate people and
ranks poorly on UNDP’s Global
Multidimensional Poverty Index
and the Lancet’s Human Capital
Index.
● In 2013, the government of
India enacted the Companies
Act which introduced Corporate
Social Responsibility (CSR) as
a mandatory obligation for
companies with a net annual
profit of INR 500 Crore (about 7
million USD) to spend at least
two percent of their income
towards development activities.
In the Indian Financial Year
2017-18 alone, a total of INR
3,487 Crore (about 500 million
USD) was invested in education
by Indian companies. This
should support in making
available resources to improve
national literacy rates. However,
the major constraint that comes

up is that companies must
spend the two percent allocated
for CSR within one year, thus
lowering the opportunities of
designing robust multi-year
programs
● With high annual GDP growth,
CSR requirements for large
corporations, and a large and
growing middle class, India
should have adequate financial
resources to devote to
improving national literacy rates.
● The private sector’s role in
education is significant:
enrollment of children aged 6-14
years in private schools has
been 30% in the last five years.
● Environmental science,
including issues related to
climate change, has been
included in course curricula for
students in primary and
secondary grades. Inclusion of
information on climate mitigation
and adaptation in these courses
has led to growing awareness of
climate risks among the
younger generation.
● Despite relatively strong
economic growth, many Indians,
especially from states with
coastal belt or dry arid areas are
vulnerable to climate risks.
Climate Risks:
● Reduced training attendance,
teacher, and learning
performance possible due to
disruption and/or damage
caused by extreme weather
events (floods, droughts,
extreme heat)

● Damage to materials and
facilities from floods caused by
heavy rainfall and storms
● Student and teacher/trainer
performance could be affected
by increases in very hot days
● Prolonged and/or more frequent
droughts and heatwaves could
reduce time available for
reading and boosting literacy as
meeting basic needs take
precedence
IR 1.3: GOI effectiveness

in education and health
reforms enhanced |
Sub-IRs:
● Capacity to plan, manage
and deliver services
improved
● Mobilization of domestic
resources increased
● Governance strengthened
Rating: Moderate To be filled Potential CRM measures to be ● Take advantage of GOI’s NDC
once strategy explored in consultation with (emission reduction targets) and
the GOI during project and commitment to deploy 175 GW
Adaptive Capacity - See IR narrative activity design include: of RE to provide health facilities
1.1 and IR 1.2 developed ● Allocating dedicated with clean power
resources (financial and ● Coordinate with other donors
human) toward HSS providing support to GOI on
Climate Risks:
including resources for HSS
● Disruptions in health systems preparing for and
strengthening (HSS) activities responding to emergencies
(e.g., monitoring, training, ● Developing contingencies
coaching, documentation) as for supply chain disruptions,
well as in health service delivery including pre-positioning of
due to extreme weather events supplies and medicines
● Possible disruptions to supply ● Bolstering training of health
chains due to damage to providers to be aware of
facilities from extreme weather

● Health systems burdened from climate impacts to health,
increasing demand for care including for example to
resulting from increasing ensure clinicians can
incidence of illnesses related to quickly diagnose and treat
heat, vector- and waterborne communicable diseases
disease, and reduced nutrition before they become
● GOI capacity to plan and outbreaks
provide resources strained due ● Encouraging inter-agency
to competitive needs arising out and cross-sectoral
of negative impacts of multiple coordination to help GOI
climate-related stressors realize potential synergies
(droughts, floods, heat, etc) among their many initiatives
● Potential storm and flood ● Strengthening structural
damage to WASH feeders and integrity of health clinics to
health facilities withstand wind and flood
● Potential disruptions to service damage
delivery if health providers, ● Developing resilient
teachers, and administrators are management information
affected by floods, droughts, systems to avoid data loss
heat waves, and other extreme during extreme climatic
weather events
● Damage to educational ● Ensuring health facilities
materials and facilities from develop contingencies for
floods caused by heavy rainfall power outages during heavy
and storms storms
● Raise awareness and train
participating educational
institutions and teachers on
climate risks and taking
contingency measures to
reduce its impact including
warning systems for its staff
and students, emergency
evacuation system, etc.
IR 1.4 Private sector

engagement for improved
health and education
outcomes bolstered | Sub-
IRs:

● Application of innovative
finance solutions
strengthened
● Strategic investment of
philanthropic & CSR
resources strengthened
● Enterprise-driven
solutions for improved
health outcomes
strengthened
Rating: Moderate To be filled ● Develop CRM measures in ● Encourage coordination across,

once strategy consultation with the GOI agriculture, health, water
during project and activity sectors
Adaptive Capacity - In narrative design
addition to capacities noted developed ● Explore ways that the IDF
in IR 1.1: can support GOI to develop
● Micro-scale entrepreneurs have incentives or otherwise
proven high capacity to adapt, encourage entrepreneurs to
innovate and develop business test innovative models and
models in response to various strategies to address
challenges climate risks
Climate Risks:
● CSR and philanthropic
resources diverted due to
extreme weather events
● CSR, philanthropic and other
resources reduced to higher
insurance and reinsurance
premiums resulting from
payouts for damages caused by
● Reduced revenues and
increased costs for investors
due to extreme events (see
HSBC Fragile Planet 2018)
● Increased input costs for
agriculture, which may reduce
sustainability of such
businesses

● Increased public health risks
due to contamination of water
bodies from unregulated fecal
sludge management practices
exacerbated by increased
precipitation and storm events
DO 2: India’s Efforts to
Reduce Pollution and
Address Pollution Health
Impacts Enhanced
Timeframe: 10 years
Geography: Pan India
(policy level activities);
priority areas identified with
GOI (non-policy activities)
IR 2.1 Air pollution

mitigation improved | Sub-
IRs:
● Use of evidence-based
decision making for
policy, implementation
and compliance
increased
● Capacity of communities
to create systemic &
individual behavior
change increased
● Use of cleaner and more
efficient energy sources
increased
● Sustainable landscape
management improved

Rating: Low (for envisioned To be filled ● Conduct more targeted ● Work with GOI to frame
USAID inputs) to moderate once strategy assessment during project increasing scarcity of water for
and activity design to re- cooling thermal generation
(for outcomes) narrative evaluate rating of listed (and plants as one incentive for
developed any other) climate risks deployment of cleaner energy
Adaptive Capacity ● Potential measures to generation systems
● GOI's National Action Plan for address listed risks include: ● Leverage potentially increased
Climate Change includes o Improved design of micro- and meso-scale
several strategies spanning key buildings and cooling hydropower generation capacity
sectors (energy, industry, land systems (ensuring that (at least in the near-term and
management, transport), which climate stressors where trade-offs are minimized)
aim to improve air quality accounted for) in areas expected to receive
● Demonstrated capacity to test & o Include consideration of more rain and in areas affected
scale adoption of efficient tools potential climate risks in by melting glaciers
and technologies trainings of relevant
● Significant domestic resources stakeholders
and GOI commitment to mitigate o Bolster forest fire
climate change (i.e., GHG prevention and
emissions) management efforts and
● Various pollution control policies expand associated training
and programs exist, and cover programs
key sectors including industry o Ensure that selection of
and transportation, but tree species in forest
implementation and monitoring restoration activities
is poor explicitly considers shifting
climate regime
● Highly committed and capable
civil society
Climate Risks:
● Reduced availability of water
due to droughts and warmer
temperatures could increase
competition between
hydropower generation facilities
and other users.
● Reduced water availability for
high-efficiency cooling systems
(HVAC)
● Increased demand for
energy/power due to warmer
temperatures exceeds potential

to deploy clean energy supplies
fast enough (see MIT review
article)
● Increased burden on electricity
infrastructure due to increasing
demand for cooling caused by
heat stress
● Shifts in agricultural productivity
and practices driven by drought
and warmer temperatures result
in increased dust from open and
barren lands
● Damage to power transmission
and distribution infrastructure
● Decreased efficiency and energy
output of solar and wind power
facilities due to temperature
increase
● Increased smoke, haze, and
emissions of PM as a result of
forests burning due to drier and
hotter conditions
● Increased tree mortality and
reduced extent and condition of
forest habitats due to pest
outbreaks and fires from
changes in temperature and
precipitation.
● Forest structure and composition
could shift as temperatures
warm and rainfall patterns
change; some forests may
become more prone to
conversion to agriculture
● Diversion of funds from
conservation / protected area
management due to competing
priorities
IR 2.2 Exposure to air

pollution reduced | Sub-IRs:

● Evidence base for
planning and
implementation of health
interventions expanded
● Adoption of behaviors to
reduce the health impact
of air pollution improved
● Use of market-based
approaches to reduce
pollution and its health
impacts increased
Rating: Low [to be confirmed] ● Conduct more targeted ● Seek synergies with health
assessment during project systems strengthening work under
and activity design to re- DO1 and DRM work under DO3
Adaptive Capacity: In evaluate rating of listed (and
addition to capacities noted any other) climate risks
in IR2.1:
● GOI’s Central Pollution Control
Board has executed a national
program for ambient air quality
monitoring, including real time
information for anyone with
internet access
● Evidence base on impacts (and
need for interventions) strong
but evidence on which
interventions are likely to be
most effective is weaker
Climate Risks:
● De-prioritization of pollution-
avoiding behaviors due to
increasing temperature and
exposure to extreme events
(e.g., not wearing masks during
heat waves)
● Health systems burdened from
increase in demand for care as a
result of climate-related illnesses

● Reduced access to nutritional
foods - due to drought, floods,
and heat stress - impedes the
ability of poor and other
marginalized populations to
adopt healthy behaviors
● Increasing scarcity of clean
water due to temperature
increases, drought, and floods
(which may damage water
provisioning and sanitation
systems) may impede or cause
setbacks in adoption of healthy
behaviors
● Increased costs for investors
and insurers due to increased
frequency or magnitude of
extreme events (see HSBC
Fragile Planet 2018)
● Increased financial market
losses due to economic
disruption and damage caused
by extreme weather events.
DO 3: Sustainable
Economic Growth and
Development in the
Region Enhanced
Timeframe (years): 25
years Geography:
South Asia
IR 3.1 India’s development Additional new or updated Increased prevalence of extreme

collaboration advanced | PADs and scope of work weather events e.g. typhoons
Sub-IRs: developed after the CDCS that cause flood incidence) as
would need to address well as drought caused by El
specially the risk to slower Nino are climate risks that the

● India’s capacity as a onset risks and mitigation Mission has to accept and
regional development options. program accordingly.
partner enhanced
● Broad support for Indian
engagement in the region
Mission targeting of
bolstered
resilience activities needs to
● India’s role in regional
continue focusing on
disaster risk management
enhanced
provinces or
cities/municipalities that are
more vulnerable to the
effects of climate change.
Rating: Moderate ● Include ● Conduct more targeted ● India’s support and leadership on
context assessment during project DRM could build trust with SA
indicators on and activity designs to partners [Note: DO3 team may
Adaptive Capacity climate in sharpen understanding of want to consider this as a specific
● India, through DPA, already Strategy’s climate risks and devise CRM next step]
provides substantial MEL plan to specific CRM measures ● Take advantage of strong political
development assistance to SA support ● Support GOI (including the will throughout the region for
countries adaptive NDMA) to: addressing climate change (in
● India’s national disaster management o Provide guidance to SA particular adaptation actions and
management (NDM) authority ● Develop initial countries for development DRM) to build support for a
and NDM plan account for plan for of tailored DRM plans, coordinated regional approach on
climate change in line with adaptive which include CRM DRM
Sendai Framework management measures
● India hosts SAARC disaster of climate o Contingency plans to
management center risks ‘build back better’ post-
● India has strong capacity to disaster
respond to disasters in the ● Support GOI to work with SA
region countries on:
● NITI’s composite water o Improving EWS at multiple
management index may serve scales in the region
as an exemplar for region (see o Improving resiliency
IR 3.3) planning, including
● policies and measures for
adaptively managing
Climate risks: displaced individuals and
● Possible disruptions to supply populations
chains, due to damage to
facilities from extreme weather,

could impede or slow trust-
building efforts
● GOI capacity to plan and provide
resources strained due to
competitive needs arising from
more frequent and severe
climate-related impacts in India
and the region
● Existing early-warning systems
and plans and efforts to build
resilience rendered ineffective
due to the combination of
increasing intensity of storms
and rapid urbanization.
● Number of master trainers
available to train responders and
the number of responders
insufficient due to increasing
frequency and intensity of
● Depletion of emergency relief
stockpiles due to increasing
frequency and intensity of floods
and droughts.
● Existing codes and standards, or
poor implementation might not
enable buildings to withstand
increasing intensity of cyclones
or increased frequency of
flooding.
● Exacerbated gender inequities
resulting from climate-related
disasters
● Increasing displacement
associated with extreme weather
events may increase the need
for establishment and
maintenance of continued
assistance to host communities
and addressing the needs of the
displaced.
● Prolonged displacement may
lead to social issues related to

conflict with host communities,
domestic violence, psychosocial
impacts of displaced persons,
and other issues.
IR 3.2: Regional Economic

Growth Systems
Strengthened | Sub-IRs:
● Digital economy and
connectivity strengthened
● Free and open trade and
investment enhanced
● Enabling environment for
infrastructure
development improved
● Public & private sector
investment for regional
development increased
Rating: Moderate ● Conduct more targeted

assessment during project
and activity designs to
Adaptive Capacity sharpen understanding of
● India already an information, climate risks and devise
communication & technology specific CRM measures
capital globally
● India’s economy robust and
ability to attract investment
strong
● Enabling environment
challenging due to weak rule of
law, corruption, bureaucracy,
and a variety of social and
economic disparities
● Financially capable private
sector and adequate domestic
resources
Climate risks:

● Decreased range of wireless
signal transmission due to heat
stress
● Damage to low-lying/
underground infrastructure and
access points, particularly in
coastal areas, floodplains, and
cities, due to shifting rainfall
patterns, stronger storms, and
sea level rise
extreme weather events, or
potentially reduced due to higher
premiums resulting from payouts
for damages caused by extreme
weather events
● Reduced revenues and
increased costs for investors
due to extreme events
● Reduced trade and investment
due to increased number of
extreme weather events (see
HSBC Fragile Planet 2018)
● Increased investment
uncertainty due to increased
market volatility from climate
variability.
● Closed or damaged ports and
transport routes critical to trade
in coastal areas
● Disrupted trading patterns and
international investment flows
due to floods and droughts.
IR 3.3 Regional Natural

Resource Management
Improved | Sub-IRs:

● Energy sector
transformation
accelerated
● Environmental and social
safeguard standards
advanced
● Transnational
environmental crime
countered
● Resilience to disasters
improved and competition
over natural resources
reduced
Rating: Moderate ● Conduct more targeted ● Development of regional water

assessment during project strategy
and activity designs to ● Take advantage of different
Adaptive Capacity sharpen understanding of initiatives on awareness raising
● India’s Supreme Court and climate risks and devise on climate risks
National Green Tribunal have specific CRM measures
enabled NRM governance within ● Some potential CRM
India measures include:
● SAWEN (effective?) o Support GOI to leverage
● Advanced Indian power sector its domestic water
with power markets, established management efforts and
regulatory framework work with SA countries to
● develop a regional water
strategy
Climate risks: In addition to o Support GOI to review its
disaster-related risks noted engineering codes (and
in 3.1: upgrade where necessary)
to ensure they are robust
● Reduced availability of water
to storm and flood
due to droughts and warmer
damage before sharing
temperatures could increase
with SAARC countries
competition between
o Support GOI to work with
hydropower generation facilities
SAARC countries on a
and other users.
regional early warning
● Reduced water availability can
system
impact power generation from
o Support GOI to bolster
thermal power plants
regional NRM governance

● Reduced water availability can (including E&S
lead to trans-national conflicts safeguards) in order to
● Reduced water availability for reduce erosion and
high-efficiency cooling systems landslide potential, and
(HVAC) improve water regulation
● Increased demand for services of watersheds
energy/power due to warmer throughout the region
temperatures exceeds potential
to deploy clean energy supplies
fast enough (see MIT review
article)
● Damage to power transmission
and distribution infrastructure
● Exacerbated pressures on
natural resources from non-
climate stressors due to
temperature increases, shifting
rainfall patterns, sea level rise
● Increased pressures on natural
resources from forest-dependent
peoples whose livelihoods are
affected by drought, floods, heat
and other climate stressors
● Warmer temperatures, shifting
rainfall patterns, stronger
droughts and storms, and sea
level rise could undermine
efforts to build environmental
resilience or overwhelm
resilience thresholds
● Loss of coastal land due to
erosion (e.g., caused by rising
seas, stronger storm surges,
and changes in river flow)
● Forest fires could become more
likely as temperatures rise and
rainfall patterns shift causing
heat stress and potentially
increased mortality
● Diversion of funds from
conservation / protected area

management due to competing
priorities
SO 1: Economic and
Cultural Resilience of
Tibetan Communities in
South Asia Strengthened
Timeframe (years): 10
years Geography: Non-
coastal areas of India, and
Nepal
IR 1 Sustainable
livelihoods improved |
Sub-IRs:
● Economic opportunity
increased
● Human capital improved
● Participation and
empowerment of local
communities (especially
women) in the
development process
strengthened
Rating: Low in India and ● For activities to take place in

Moderate in Nepal Nepal, USAID will re-
evaluate climate risks during
activity design
Adaptive Capacity
● Strong cohesive social networks
to address issues and share
information
● Although still dependent for
financial support from donors,

financial capacity appears
adequate
● GOI continues to provide
support and a variety of services
● Human capacity and information
capacity related to climate
change are not very strong
Climate risks:
● Potential increases in diseases,
loss of livelihoods, and
reductions in access to
education, health and other
services (especially in Nepal)
due to temperature increases,
rainfall changes, floods and
landslides
● Reduced school attendance due
to increasing incidence of
illnesses caused by temperature
increases and / or floods that
exacerbate the spread of
waterborne diseases (low risk)
● Exacerbated inequities
experienced by Tibetans in
Nepal due to various climate
stressors
● Potential reductions in
livelihoods and economic
opportunities due to the negative
impact of heat stress, drought,
and floods on agricultural
productivity
IR 2 Tibetan institutions
and cultural resilience
strengthened | Sub-IRs:
● Effectiveness of local
Institutions serving
Tibetans increased

● Cultural vitality and
resilience of Tibetan
communities
strengthened
Rating: Low
Adaptive Capacity - In
addition to capacities listed
in IR 1:
● Certain Tibetan institutions are
strong and get significant
attention. Thus resilient
Climate risks:
● Potential damage to
infrastructure of key institutions
(schools, health clinics) from
extreme events
● Potential diversion of attention
from mission of preserving
Tibetan cultural vitality if
community leaders if drought,
floods, heat negatively affect
institutions’ ability to provide
basic services
● Climate change could
exacerbate the political risks
IR 3 Capacity of Tibetan
Institutions to attract
resources and manage
programs strengthened |
Sub-IRs:
● Governance of Tibetan
institutions strengthened

● Capacity of Tibetan
institutions to mobilize
resources strengthened
● Alternative finance
models developed
Rating: Low
Adaptive Capacity - see IRs 1

and 2
Climate risks:
extreme weather events (low
risk)
● CSR, philanthropic and other
resources reduced to higher
premiums resulting from payouts
for damages caused by extreme
weather events

Climate Change Annex Part II: Greenhouse Gas Mitigation
Theme / Question Answer
GHG Sources from Sectors
What are the major sources of According to the 2018 USAID Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
GHG emissions in India? Emissions Fact Sheet India, the country emitted 3,202 MtCO2e
in 2014, the latest year for which data were available in World
Resources Institute’s (WRI’s) Climate Analysis Indicators Tool
(CAIT) database, the main source for the fact sheets. These
emissions accounted for 6.55% of the global total. More than
two-thirds (~69%) of the country’s emissions came from the
energy sector, with electricity and heat accounting for about half
of energy emissions. Transportation contributed about 13% of
energy emissions. About one-fifth of the country’s emissions
came from agriculture with enteric fermentation contributing 45%
of these emissions. Industrial processes, waste, land use change
and forestry (LUCF), and waste accounted for 6%, ~4%, and
~2% of total emissions respectively.
India’s 2nd Biennial Update Report (BUR-2; 2018), also using

GHG inventory information from 2014, reported that total
emissions was 2,607 MtCO2e excluding LUCF and 2,306
MtCO2e including LUCF. According to the BUR-2, India’s forests
sequestered 301 MtCO2e, offsetting 12% of its total emissions.
The BUR-2 provides a detailed inventory of emissions by sector
and GHG (i.e., CO2, CH4, N2O, and HFCs, PFCs and SF6).
How has the distribution and ● Growth of GHG emissions has trended with economic growth
composition of the GHG emissions in a stepwise linear fashion. From 1990 to 2014, total
profile changed over time emissions increased by 180% and energy emissions increased
nearly 250%. The overall distribution profile of India’s
historically and how is the profile
emissions has not changed appreciably during this period;
expected to change in the future energy related emissions still dominate.
considering the major emitting ● With more aggressive renewable energy (RE) goals for the
sectors and/or sources? electricity sector by the GOI, growth of GHGs may slow down.
For example, the USAID/India Greening the Grid study (see
Table 8 in study) estimated that by meeting the 175 GW RE
goal by 2022, CO2 emissions would be ~20% less than a

scenario where no renewable energy was added. With more
aggressive RE penetration (i.e., 250 GW by 2022), CO2
emissions would be 33% less (compared to the scenario in
which no new RE is added.) (More details on emission
reduction scenarios in the energy sector can also be found in
this academic study).
● Transportation emissions, though significantly less than
electricity sector emissions, follow a similar trend (i.e.,
historical increase of GHGs that tracks with economic growth).
Electric-mobility policies have the potential to offset emissions
from transportation.
● Another source of GHGs is the combustion of biomass and
other solid fuels for cooking. The trends in this sector are
similar to other sectors because the population of households
that use solid fuel use has been increasing over time.
However, desiring to reduce air pollution and improve health,
India has policies to move households away from these fuels
which emit CO2 and black carbon. If India is effective in moving
households up the energy ladder (i.e., to either LPG/natural
gas or electric stoves), these emissions will decline.
How are the sectors and sources ● Energy growth, specifically in the form of electricity and
that contribute to GHG emissions industrial fuel supply, and transportation, is fundamental to
contributing to the growth and economic growth and as noted above, to the extent energy is
dependent on fossil fuels, these will track. As decarbonized
development of the economy and to
energy sources fuel the economy, this relationship can be
meeting development objectives? decoupled.
● As India’s economy develops, another key source of
emissions, biomass cooking fuels, will likely diminish.
● The agricultural sector, such as due to the meat and dairy
industries, has significant emissions and according to a 2016
USDA review, India has rapidly grown to become the world's
largest beef exporter, accounting for 20% of the world's beef
trade based on its large water buffalo meat processing
industry.
What climate change mitigation or ● In its NDC, India pledged to reduce its GDP carbon intensity
low emission development plans, by 33-35% by 2030 relative to 2005 levels. In its NDC, India
emphasized that its GDP carbon intensity decreased 12%

targets, commitments, and priorities between 2005 and 2010. The NDC noted that India will
has the government articulated? achieve these reductions primarily in the energy and land
sectors:
○ Renewable energy (RE) - achieve 40% cumulative electric
power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel based energy
resources by 2030 (i.e., adding 175 GW).
○ Forestry - create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion
tons of CO2 equivalent by 2030 through additional forest and
tree cover
● India’s National Environmental Policy (NEP) and National
Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) provide a policy
framework and specific set of strategies, respectively, for
climate mitigation and low emission development. The NAPCC
consolidates various other national plans including on water,
renewable energy, energy efficiency, and agriculture. The
NAPCC outlines mitigation (and adaptation) priorities for
addressing climate change in 8 ‘missions’: solar, energy
efficiency, water, sustainable ‘habitat’ (buildings), sustaining
the Himalayan ecosystem, ‘green India’ (increasing forest
cover), sustainable agriculture, and strategic knowledge on
climate change. State action plans, which aim to mainstream
climate change considerations into planning, represent efforts
to implement these national policies and priorities on the
ground.
USAID work in Sectors
Which sectors is USAID planning to The mission plans to work in several sectors that are included in
program in? India’s NAPCC. The program areas emphasized in the new 5-
year strategy include clean energy, health, WASH, and
sustainable landscapes with an emphasis on reducing air
pollution and improving inclusive economic growth and
development in India and the region. These program areas will
directly support several of the NAPCC’s missions, including
solar, green India, and water.
What opportunities exist to reduce USAID can take advantage of various mitigation opportunities in
emissions in those sectors? the sectors noted above. A component of the strategy that

focuses on catalyzing a transformation in the energy sector
directly responds to India’s pledge (in its NDC) to meet its
emission reduction targets by meeting its growing energy
demand with deployment of renewable energy sources.
■ India’s goal to electrify 30% of its public transport (in part

to reduce air pollution) and its $1.4 billion in subsidies for
electric vehicles could complement the RE goal.
■ Some analysts have noted, however, that the deployment
of installed power capacity with RE will not necessarily
replace existing coal sources, but rather add capacity on
top of them.
■ Thus achieving the RE target may help India achieve a
reduction in emissions intensity, but not necessarily a net
reduction in emissions, which is crucial both for climate
mitigation and air pollution goals.
India’s air pollution control efforts can also be leveraged to

achieve emission reductions because many air pollutants are
also GHGs.
The national mission on ‘green India’, which aims to afforest 6

million ha in order to increase national forest and tree cover from
23 to 33% provides an opportunity to reduce agriculture, forestry,
and other land use sector (AFOLU) emissions and also
sequester carbon in trees and soil.
An opportunity within the health sector to reduce emissions is to

maximize the use of renewable energy. The health benefits (e.g.,
reduced smog and pollution) of transitioning to RE sources for
electricity can be elevated through inter-agency and cross-
sectoral coordination. There is also a need to increase
efficiencies and reduce waste as well as to emphasize
responsible commodity use. Using recyclable and renewable
materials where feasible and appropriate can reduce pollution
(including medical waste and plastics) and contribute to
emissions reductions as well.
What opportunities exist to reduce The India Embassy has an active ‘Green Embassy’ program,

emissions associated with USAID which includes efforts to reduce its own emissions through a
activities? range of activities, including awareness raising to encourage
energy conservation. The mission is scheduled to begin
construction of a new energy efficient Embassy compound in
2019. Investment in low emitting transportation fleets would
contribute to both climate mitigation and air pollution reduction
efforts.
USAID can insist that implementing partners minimize the

carbon footprints of their activities as much as possible. Some
possible actions include holding video conferences in place of
travel where feasible, energy conservation efforts, and use of
electric vehicles where feasible.
To successfully capitalize on opportunities to reduce emissions

in the health sector, USAID would need to commit to an
integrated approach and help the GOI adopt a similarly
integrated approach. In addition, USAID would need to
communicate the health benefits of climate mitigation actions
with multiple stakeholders from ministry to local levels.
Climate mitigation in the Strategy
Does the strategy incorporate ways USAID/India’s strategy includes 2 key approaches for reducing
to reduce GHG? GHG emissions, both of which are discussed under DO 2 (page
[Note: need to reference page # in strategy 28): (1) by promoting a “shift to cleaner energy sources and [2]
and whether GHG mitigation is incorporated
by increasing forest cover from 24% to 33% by restoring or
in a goal, DO, IR, or sub-IR]
growing new forests on 6 million hectares.” Regarding #1, IR 2.1
includes efforts to promote evidence-based decision making and
individual and community behavior change, as well as a strong
focus on “supporting the GOI to accelerate its deployment of
non-polluting energy sources - such as renewable energy” (page
30). Regarding #2, IR 2.1.4 notes that “Sustainable landscapes
provide multiple benefits, including reduced greenhouse gas
emissions…”
In addition, although not explicitly mentioned as a climate

mitigation endeavor, IR 3.3’s focus on improving regional natural
resources management (pages 36-37) presents an opportunity

to avoid and reduce GHG emissions throughout South Asia.
Next steps
What are the next steps at the Key next steps include estimation and analysis of historical
project / activity levels to reduce activities (learning); integrating GHG reductions into project and
GHGs? activity designs (following the CDCS); and developing a
monitoring scheme.
Climate Change Annex Part III: Greenhouse Gas Mitigation - SL questions
1. How does the CDCS integrate planning and implementation of LEDS into its DOs and/or
IRs and support the host country in meeting its domestic and international GHG targets
and commitments?
Domestically, India’s policy ambition is to increase its forest and tree cover from 24% to
33%. This goal is consistent with, and represents a key pathway to achieve India’s
commitment to the UNFCCC as stated in its Nationally Determined Contribution: a 33%
reduction in emissions intensity by 2030 (relative to 2005 levels). Specifically, in its NDC
India pledged to reduce the equivalent of 2.5 to 3 GtCO2e by 2030 in the AFOLU sector.
India intends to achieve this target through enhancement of carbon stocks as well as
improved land management that avoids or reduces emissions.
To help the GOI achieve this AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land use) target, the
mission has ongoing and planned sustainable landscapes (SL) activities. Among other
things, Forest PLUS 2 aims to improve the management of 1.2 million ha of forests and
provide ecosystem services (including water provisioning and regulation), and other
economic benefits to 800,000 people. These targets include protection of standing
forests as well as interventions (e.g., enrichment planting), which enhance carbon stocks
of designated forests. Forest PLUS 2 will set an emission reduction target once it
establishes a baseline in selected geographies.
A second activity, still under design, aims to increase tree cover in areas outside of
designated forests. This activity will help the GOI achieve its ambition of increasing tree
cover outside of forests over an area the size of the state of Gujarat by 2030. One

motivation for this activity is that the GOI cannot meet its NDC target of 2.5 to 3 billion
tons through protection and improved management of its forests within designated forest
lands. The GOI has calculated that it must sequester 0.6 to 1.1 GtCO2e in non-forest
lands to achieve its target. USAID’s trees outside of forest activity will support the GOI to
achieve this target through a range of interventions, including agroforestry, reduced
burning of crop residues, timber tree plantations, watershed management actions that
could be supported through payments for ecosystem services mechanisms. Additionally,
this activity could support engagement with private sector actors to promote investments
in ‘SL’ business models. The mission will adopt a ‘do no harm’ approach to ensure that
none of these interventions create perverse incentives or result in unintended
consequences.
As an important benefit of these AFOLU sector mitigation actions is cleaner air, these
contributions to USAID’s new 5-year strategy are reflected under DO 2, IR 2.1, which
aims to help the GOI improve its air pollution mitigation efforts. In addition, the activities
to improve natural resources governance in the region envisioned under DO 3, IR 3.3
also will contribute to improved planning and implementation of low emission
development in the region.
2. How does the R/CDCS incorporate the goal of reducing net emissions from
deforestation or from other land uses such as agriculture, consistent with USAID’s
Climate Change and Development Strategy?
Building on the answer to question 1, the CDCS positions its SL program under the
objective to reduce air pollution for multiple benefits including human health as well as
climate mitigation. The SL program will also capitalize on the fact that India has made
national commitments to protect existing forests, increase forest and tree cover, and
reduce air pollution. Consistent with USAID’s reporting structure, the specific actions
listed under question 1 will report on the number of institutions with improved capacity,
the quantity of emission reductions during the activity lifetime as well as projected
emission reductions as a result of the activity.
The mission does not directly support activities in the agriculture sector, but the trees
outside of forest activity noted above could engage the agriculture ministry and relevant
agencies and private sector actors.

3. How does the R/CDCS enable or promote a transformational change to low emissions
development?
Natural resources management and governance is a challenge in India and throughout

South Asia. Improving both governance of natural resources (especially water and forest
resources) would in itself be transformative and help achieve DO 3, which envisions
inclusive economic growth and sustainable development in South Asia. Scaling up
effective models of payments for ecosystem services (PES) mechanisms is one possible
means of transforming the way water and forests are managed. Inclusivity, gender
equity, and youth engagement, also crucial dimensions for transformational change to
low emission development, are emphasized under DO 3, IR 3.3.

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USAID.GOVUSAID INDIA CDCS | 2

3 | USAID INDIA CDCS USAID.GOV

USAID.GOVUSAID INDIA CDCS | 4

5 | USAID INDIA CDCS USAID.GOV

II. COUNTRY CONTEXT

USAID.GOVUSAID INDIA CDCS | 6

Nevertheless, the dichotomy of widespread multidimensional poverty and an active economic,

7 | USAID INDIA CDCS USAID.GOV

Among the various development strategies at work in India, the most

UNPACKING THE JOURNEY TO SELF-RELIANCE COUNTRY ROADMAP

USAID.GOVUSAID INDIA CDCS | 8

India has made important strides towards addressing the

STRATEGIC TRANSITION PLANNING

GENERAL DEVELOPMENT APPROACH

9 | USAID INDIA CDCS USAID.GOV

REDEFINING THE DEVELOPMENT RELATIONSHIP

PRIVATE SECTOR RELATIONSHIP

USAID.GOVUSAID INDIA CDCS | 10

15 Oxfam India. (2019). India: extreme inequality in numbers. Retrieved from

11 | USAID INDIA CDCS USAID.GOV

PRIVATE SECTOR ENGAGEMENT (PSE)

USAID/India has traditionally been a leader in innovative

● In 2018, USAID established the public-private

USAID.GOVUSAID INDIA CDCS | 12

INDIA’S COMMITMENT AND LEADERSHIP

OTHER STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS

13 | USAID INDIA CDCS USAID.GOV

DONOR PRESENCE IN INDIA

DONOR NAME AREAS OF FOCUS RELATING TO THE CDCS AND CDCS DO

German Development Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency, Environment, Urban Development,

USAID.GOVUSAID INDIA CDCS | 14

IV. RESULTS FRAMEWORK

15 | USAID INDIA CDCS USAID.GOV

Development Hypothesis Narrative: DO 1 seeks to improve human development in India by

USAID.GOVUSAID INDIA CDCS | 16

CONTRIBUTING TO THE JOURNEY TO SELF-RELIANCE

● The Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation is a GOI/MOHUA

17 | USAID INDIA CDCS USAID.GOV

DO1 INTERMEDIATE RESULTS (IR)

IR 1.1: USE OF QUALITY SERVICES AND HEALTHY BEHAVIORS INCREASED: To effectively

USAID.GOVUSAID INDIA CDCS | 18

19 | USAID INDIA CDCS USAID.GOV

CONTRIBUTING TO THE JOURNEY TO SELF-RELIANCE

USAID.GOVUSAID INDIA CDCS | 20

DO2 INTERMEDIATE RESULTS (IR)

● Knowledge: Air pollution mitigation begins with linking

21 | USAID INDIA CDCS USAID.GOV

CONTRIBUTING TO THE JOURNEY TO SELF RELIANCE

DO3 INTERMEDIATE RESULTS (IRS)

USAID.GOVUSAID INDIA CDCS | 22

IR 3.1: INDIA’S DEVELOPMENT COLLABORATION ENHANCED: To effectively enhance India’s

IR 3.2: REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH SYSTEMS STRENGTHENED: To achieve the USG’s

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IR 3.3: REGIONAL NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT IMPROVED: As part of USAID’s strategic

● USAID/India will assist partner countries to formulate and implement environmental

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CONTRIBUTING TO THE JOURNEY TO SELF-RELIANCE

SPECIAL OBJECTIVE INTERMEDIATE RESULTS (IRS)

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● To increase economic opportunity, USAID will promote skill development, entrepreneurship

IR 2: TIBETAN INSTITUTIONS AND HERITAGE STRENGTHENED: Strengthening Tibetan