Title: Example Fire Risk Event Tree Model ETA-01 Fire Risk Forum RiskTOOLS

Author:
Thomas F. Barry From Toolbox: Excel Templates
tfbarry@fireriskforum.com Listed: Sepember 2003
www.fireriskforum.com

Overview/Abstract: References:
This the first of what I hope will be a group of generic event tree fire 1. Barry, Thomas F., Risk-Informed, Performance-Based
risk modeling examples, which will be listed in the RISKTools section Industrial Fire Protection, TFBarry Publcations and
of the Fire Risk Forum web site. Tennessee Valley Publications, Knoxville, TN. 2002
Available at www.fireriskforum.com
These example event tree models are intented as free educational
tools to promote quantitative fire risk analysis. ETA-01 is presented
as a problem example to introduce the use and application of fire This workbook contains the following worksheets:
risk event tree analysis as a decision support tool. 1. Problem/Exercise Setup
2. Event Tree
3. Time Line
Notice to Users: 4. Risk Tolerance Profiles
These spreadsheet templates are provided as-is. 5. Alternatives Evaluation
No representations or warranties are made regarding their 6. Cost Evaluation
accuracy or suitability for a particular application. The author of these 7. Decision
templates has no control over their application and therefore accepts no
responsibility for their use. People using these templates should Every Fire Safety Professional should know how to
be familiar with proper use and application and also with the limitations perform Fire Event Tree Analysis to support design projects,
associated with their use. loss expectancy estimates, scenario-based training, and
loss investigations. TFB
Event Tree Analysis Example Exercise ETA-01

Purpose:
This exercise is for educational purposes only. The example problem,
example data, example risk tolerance profiles are for example purposes
only, solely intended to introduce the use of fire risk event tree analysis
as a decision support tool.

Problem:
The Descision Maker is faced with the problem of how to optimize fire prevention and
fire protection improvements to meet the Company's Risk Tolerance criteria
in the most cost-effective manner.

Alternatives:
The Decision Maker has been presented with the following risk reduction alternatives:
Initial Annual
Alternative Cost of Improvement Cost
1. Reduce initiating event likelihood to moderate by $26,000.00 $1,000.00
reducing ignition factors and human error potential

INFO

2. Make modification upgrades to the automatic detection $15,000.00 $500.00

system to improve performance success probability to 0.95

3. Install an automatic fire suppression system to provide local area $45,000.00 $5,000.00
fire hazards protection. The system will be independent of the ceiling
level detection system and designed for a minimum 0.95 performance.

INFO

4. Upgrade the plant's Fire Brigade performance success to 0.85 $30,000.00 $10,000.00
by additional manual fire fighting and mobile response equipment

5. Make improvements to area fire barrier walls to completely isolate $68,000.00 $500.00
the fire hazard; expected performance success probability 0.95.

INFO

Exercise:
Step 1
Review Event Tree worksheet (2. Event Tree, 3. Time Line) and compare the Existing Risk to the Risk
tolerance criteria in the Risk Tolerance worksheet ( 4. Risk Tolerance Profiles)

Step 2
Go to the Alternatives Evaluation worksheet (5. Alternatives Eval) and assess Risk Reduction strategies
to determine if they meet the Risk Tolerance criteria.
Note: In the Event Tree worksheet, evaluate each of the above alternatives by changing the likelihood or
probability of success numbers to determine what is the optimized strategy in terms of meeting the Company's
Risk Tolerance criteria in the most cost-effective manner. Note: A 'Strategy" is a set of alternatives or options.

Step 3
Go to the Cost Evaluation worksheet (6. Cost Eval) and compare the costs of Risk Reduction Strategies

Step 4
Go to the Decisions Worksheet (7. Decisions) and indicated what recommendations you would make.
 EXAMPLE: Generic Event Tree Fire Risk Model ETA 01

**INFO** Provides information and comments PROBABILITY DATA TABLE IS BELOW EVENT TREE
Likelihood Inputs
Major Incident Exposure Level(s)

Source (S) Layer of Fire Protection Systems in Pathway (P) Targets (T)

[A] [B] [C] [D] [E] [F] [G] [H] [I]

Initiating Automatic Local Application Manual Hazard Isolation Life Property
Fire Event Detection Automatic Fire Fire Fighting Fire Barrier BRANCH BRANCH Safety Damage
Likelihood & Alarms Suppression Response Integrity LINE LINE Exposure Exposure
Successful Successful Successful Maintained I.D. LIKELIHOOD Level Level
**INFO** **INFO** **INFO** **INFO** **INFO** **INFO** **INFO**

0 1 0.00E+00 1 2
C-1 **INFO**
"INFO"
0.85
B-1 0.7 2 3.99E-02 1 2
D-2

1 0.4 3 6.83E-03 1 2
E-2
0.3
YES 0.6 4 1.03E-02 2 4 Major Exposure
6.70E-02 **INFO**
Fires / Year NO
0 5 0.00E+00 2 2
For Bounding C-2
Design Basis Fire
0.15
**INFO** 0.35 6 3.52E-03 2 2

D-4
1 0.4 7 2.61E-03 2 3
E-4
0.65
0.6 8 3.92E-03 3 4 Major Exposure

TIME LINE 0 1-3 3 - 10 10-30 30-60 6.70E-02

**INFO** Minutes

Major Life Safety Expsoure Major Property Damage Expsoure

Branch Line 4### 1.03E-02

Branch Line 8 3.92E-03 Branch Line 8### 3.92E-03

Likelihood of exposure 3.92E-03 Likelihood of 1.42E-02

level 3 or greater events/year exposure level 4 events/year
or greater
Tolerable ? Tolerable ?
**INFO** **INFO**

EXAMPLE EVENT TREE PROBABILITY DATA TABLE - EXISTING RISK

Frequency (F) or Basis /

Event ID Event Probability (P) Reference(s) Remarks
[A] Initiating fire High 1 fire/15 years Refer to Chapter 4
event occurs 0.067 (F) Historical data and in Reference 1.
fire events/year engineering judgement.

References X,Y,Z,
[B] Automatic detection Refer to Chapter 6
and alarms 0.085 (P) Engineering review and analysis. in Reference 1.
successful

References X,Y,Z,

[C] Local application 0 (P) This would be a Would be designed to be

automatic fire Presently does new installation that is independent of ceiling level
suppression successful not exist; being evaluated as an smoke detection system and
assigned zero improvement alternative meet minium 0.95 performance
success probability success design
[D1] Manual Fire Fighting Refer to Chapter 6
Response Successful 0.7 (P) Engineering review and analysis. in Reference 1.
- given that fire detection
system [B] which notifies
fire brigade IS successful References X,Y,Z,

[D2] Manual Fire Fighting Refer to Chapter 6

Response Successful 0.35 (P) Engineering review and analysis. in Reference 1.
- given that fire detection For this example, a
system [B] which notifies value of 50% of [D1]
fire brigade IS NOT successful was assigned References X,Y,Z,

[E] Hazard Isolation Refer to Chapter 6

Fire Barrier 0.40 (P) Engineering review and analysis. in Reference 1.
Integrity Maintained
(IS successful)
References X,Y,Z,
 3.Time Line

EXAMPLE: Fire Exposure Profile ETA 01

[A] [B] [C] [D] [E]

Initiating Automatic Local Application Manual Hazard Isolation
Fire Event Detection Automatic Fire Fire Fighting Fire Barrier
Likelihood & Alarms Suppression Response Integrity
Successful Successful Successful Maintained

TIME LINE 0 1-3 3 - 10 10-30 30-60

**INFO** Minutes

Example; Uncontrolled Fire Exposure Profile

Fire Spread & Propagation to
Fire Exposure Secondary Fuel Sources
Modeled at Start of Structural Failure
Defined of Steel Roof Beams
Target(s)
e.g. Fuel Package
. radiant heat Fuel Package Peak Heat Release Rate
. temperature Fire Growth
. smoke Equipment Damage from Temperature
and Radiant Heat

Operator Injuries from Temperature

and Smoke

3 10 30
Minutes

Page 5
EXAMPLE: Risk Tolerance Profile for Life Safety Exposure ETA 01

LIKELIHOOD ** INFO
Fire Exposure/ Year

1.00E-01
1.0 / 10 unit years
1.00E-02 Existing Risk An example of Life Safety Exposure Categories :
1.0 / 100 unit yrs Not Tolerable
Life Safety Exposure: Potential Consequences:
1.00E-03 1 - Low Minor First Aid ( i.e. smoke inhalation)
1.0 / 1000 unit yrs 2 - Moderate Single person injury requiring hospital treatment
3 - Heavy Mutiple person injuries
1.00E-04 4 - High Life threatening injury or death ON-SITE
1.0 / 10,000 unit yrs 5 - Major Life threatening injuries or death OFF-SITE

1.00E-05
1.0 / 100,000 unit years Tolerable Risk ** This is the annualized likelihood tolerance limit for fire exposure
(i.e. with existing or proposed protection layers in-place) versus
1.00E-06 the Life Safety or Property Damage Exposure categories or levels.
1.0 / 1,000,000 unit yrs This is NOT the Initiating Fire Likelihood ( see Event [A] in Event Tree).
This IS the fire scenario incident outcome likelihood ( see Event Tree
1 2 3 4 5 Branch Line Likelihood, Event [G]).

Life Safety Exposure Categories Unit years indicate a likelihood associated with a defined fire
source boundary (unit area); not necessarily an entire facility.

EXAMPLE: Risk Tolerance Profile for Property Damage Exposure ETA 01

LIKELIHOOD **
Fires Exposure/ Year
An example of Property Damage Exposure Categories:
1.00E-01
1.0 / 10 unit years Existing Risk Property Damage Damage Factor
Not Tolerable Exposure Range ( %) General Definition
1.00E-02 1 - Slight 0-1 Limited localized minor damage not requiring repairs.
1.0 / 100 unit yrs 2 - Light 1-10 Significant localized damage of some components
not requiring major repairs.
1.00E-03 3 - Moderate 10-25 Significant localized damage to many components
1.0 / 1000 unit yrs requiring repairs or replacement
4 - Heavy 25-60 Extensive equipment and struture damage
1.00E-04 5 - Major 60-100 Major widespread damage to equipment, major structural
1.0 / 10,000 unit yrs Tolerable Risk damage, potential for release of contaminated combustion
Tolerable Risk
products off-site.
1.00E-05
1.0 / 100,000 unit years

1 2 3 4 5

Property Damage Exposure Categories

NOTE: Additional Risk Tolerance Profiles could be developed for Business Interruption potential,
environmental consequences, media reaction- loss of customer potential, etc.
 5.Alternatives Eval

Example - Risk Reduction Alternatives Evaluation ETA 01

FROM EVENT TREE ANALYSIS

[A] [B] [C] [D] [E] LIFE SAFETY PROPERTY DAMAGE

Initiating Automatic Local Application Manual Hazard Isolation
Fire Event Detection Automatic Fire Fire Fighting Fire Barrier Likelihood of Likelihood of
Likelihood & Alarms Suppression Response Integrity Expsoure Level 3 Expsoure Level 4
Successful Successful Successful Maintained or greater or greater

EXISTING RISK 0.067 0.85 0 0.7 0.4 3.92E-03 1.42E-02

Situation No System
Does NOT meet Risk Tolerance Criteria

Risk Reduction 0.033 0.95 0.95 Same Same

Strategy 1 Improvements to Improvement Install an automatic No No
reduce likelihood to fire detection fire suppression Improvements Improvements "INFO"
from high to system system for local
moderate hazard protection Meets Risk Tolerance Criteria ?

Risk Reduction 0.033 0.95 Same 0.85 0.95

Strategy 2 Improvements to Improvement No Improvements Improvement
reduce likelihood to fire detection system made to fire barrier
from high to system installed system made
moderate Meets Risk Tolerance Criteria ?

Risk Reduction
Strategy 3
????????????
Meets Risk Tolerance Criteria ?

Page 7
 6.Cost Eval

Example Cost Evaluation ETA 01

Uniform Assumed Interest Rate Future Value Total
Strategy Initial Cost Annual Cost Useful Life, Years %/100 of Annual Costs Investment

Strategy 1
Reduce Initiating Fire Event Likelihood $26,000.00 $1,000.00

Improve Fire Detection System $15,000.00 $500.00

ADD Local Fire Suppression System $45,000.00 $5,000.00

$86,000.00 $6,500.00 15 0.05 ($140,260.66) $226,260.66

Strategy 2

Reduce Initiating Fire Event Likelihood $26,000.00 $1,000.00

Improve Fire Detection System $15,000.00 $500.00

Upgrade Plant Fire Brigade $30,000.00 $10,000.00

Improve Fire Barrier / Hazard Isolation $68,000.00 $500.00

$139,000.00 $12,000.00 15 0.05 ($258,942.76) $397,942.76

Strategy 3 ????

Note: This is a first-order evaluation. It assumes uniforn

annual costs, and useful life, for all alternatives, and
does not include non-uniform costs such as the costs
associated with periodic parts repair/replacement.

Page 8
 7.Decisions

Summarize your Risk-Based Decision ETA 01

A few points:
1. First priority should always be the reduction of the likelihood of fire occurrence,
if feasible technological and administrative measures can be implemented.

2. Always maximize detection and alarm system design effectiveness, availability, and reliability.

3. Evaluate layers of protection that get you down to tolerable risk levels, considering initial costs, annual
costs such as IMT (inspection, maintenance, testing), useful life, and risk monitoring efforts, such as
potential future change in occupancy,hazard, risk, and impariments to protection systems.

INFO Suggested Strategy, Recommendations; Comments on Uncertainty Issues

Page 9