Transition Matrices and Diagrams Transition Matrices, T ‘An nx n matrix that shows the percentage of how objects are distributed between n different places between states. These percentages are written as decimals often called proportions. Example VCAA 2009 Question & ‘A market researcher predicts that + of those who do their food shopping at Marks this week, 70% will shop at Marks next week and 30% will shop at Foodies + of those who do their food shopping at Foodies this week, 90% will shop at Foodies next week and 10% will shop at Marks, this week M OF 07 ony A transition matrix that can be used to represent this situation is T = [03 ool F next week State Matrices, 5, A column matrix that shows the current distribution of objects. They are notated using subscripts such as 5,,Sq. The initial state, how the objects are distributed to begin with, is notated as Sp, Example VCAA 2009 Question 7 In a country town, people only have the choice of doing their food shopping at a store called Marks (M) or at newly opened store called Foodies (F_). In the first week that Foodies opened, only 300 of the town’s 800 shoppers did their food shopping at Marks. The remainder did their food shopping at Foodies. A state matrix 300] M 5, that can be used to represent this situation is S, = el M ‘Transition Diagrams ‘A diagram that displays the percentage changes from and to each object. Each option is shown as a vertex ‘and labelled and each change is shown as an edge with an arrow and the percentage written next to it. Example Example ame from 0% from G) AB A BC 7 ez oal4 to mf) (on 02 04 O.1)4 woo) \ von 0.3 0.6)/B 03 05 05/B to f fo = 05 01 o4lc eee ON A dos Example VCAA 2008 Question 7 this year A large population of mutton birds migrates each yeartoaremoteislandto A BC D nest and breed. There are four nesting sites on the island, A,B,C and D. 04 0 02 OA Researchers suggest that the following transition matrix can be used to 0.35 1 0.15 0/8 next predict the number of mutton birds nesting at each of the four sites in 0.15 0 0.55 OC year subsequent years. An equivalent transition diagram is also given. o1 0 01 UD ‘Two thousand eight hundred mutton birds nest at site C in 2008. Of these 2800 mutton birds, the number that nest at site 4 in 2009 is predicted to be: From C to A is 20% or 0.2. Then, 20% of 2800 = 560. ‘There is predicted to be560 mutton birds from C in 2008 at A in 2009. Alternatively, a matrix product shows the distribution to each site Ti ¥ 04 0 02 OF 0 560] A 035 1 0.15 of] 0 420|B 0.15 0 0.55 0} |2800] ~ }1540] c O1 0 O41 0 28010