Campus San Luis Potosí, Engineering School

Course: IN2023:DAE Teacher: Benigno Hernández R.

Homework #: ______ Period: 2 Delivery date: 9/29/2019
Homework title: H3P2
Student(s) List Number

Note: Students enrolled in this format certifify that 100% of the content of Grade

1.       The sales manager of an automobile parts dealer wants to develop a model to predict the total annual sales by region. Based on experience it
can be determined that annual sales estimated based on April are pretty accurate, so that in future years the April forecast could be used to
review production schedules and have an adequate inventory in retail stores. Several factors are related to sales, including the number of
retail stores in the region, the number of registered cars in the region until April 1, and the average total personal income, between others.
A total of five independent variables as the most important (according to the sales manager) was selected. After, he stablished
these variables, data were collected.
Annual Number of
Number of registered Personal Average
sales (one Number of
retail cars income age of cars
hundred sellers
stores, (thousands) (years)
thousand)   (10,000)
Y:AS X1:NRS X2:NRC X3:PI X4:AAC X5:NS
37.702 39 9.27 85.4 6.5 9
24.196 21 5.86 60.7 4 5
32.055 36 8.81 68.1 5.4 7
3.611 12 3.81 20.2 4 4
17.625 26 7.31 33.8 3.5 3
45.919 39 11.62 95.1 6.1 12
29.6 28 8.96 69.3 4.1 8
8.114 14 6.28 16.3 2.9 3
20.116 19 7.77 34.9 5.5 6
 12.994 17 10.92 15.1 3.1 4

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Xt= 39 21 36 12 26 39 28 14 19 17
9.27 5.86 8.81 3.81 7.31 11.62 8.96 6.28 7.77 10.92
85.4 60.7 68.1 20.2 33.8 95.1 69.3 16.3 34.9 15.1
6.5 4 5.4 4 3.5 6.1 4.1 2.9 5.5 3.1
9 5 7 4 3 12 8 3 6 4

10 251 80.61 498.9 45.1 61

251 7229 2162.78 14975.4 1221.4 1750
A= 80.61 2162.78 700.2045 4335.78 374.511 531.83
498.9 14975.4 4335.78 32723.95 2515.01 3745.3
45.1 1221.4 374.511 2515.01 217.95 302.9
61 1750 531.83 3745.3 302.9 449

3.92066165 0.08615471 -0.40763431 -0.03076584 -0.9509886 0.51256744

0.08615471 0.01538438 -0.02825346 -0.00559651 -0.04326289 0.03766787
A-1= -0.40763431 -0.02825346 0.09128564 0.01149503 0.10730897 -0.11090297
-0.03076584 -0.00559651 0.01149503 0.00278929 0.0148069 -0.02087866
-0.9509886 -0.04326289 0.10730897 0.0148069 0.3677537 -0.20088782
0.51256744 0.03766787 -0.11090297 -0.02087866 -0.20088782 0.22681937

a) Determine if there are problems of multicollinearity.

Término
Constante FIV
X1:NRS 14.29 Due to four of the VIF's is greater than 5, all the X's can´t be considered as independent variables
X2:NRC 4.6 therefore the coefficients on the MLRM that relates Y: Annual Sales with these X's can´t be interpreted.
X3:PI 21.85
X4:AAC 5.35 There are multicollinearity problems due to VIF's of X1, X3, X4, and X5 are greater than 5
X5:NS 17.44
b) Set the multiple linear regression hyperplane eliminating the two X's with more multicollinearity problems.
EE del tm
Término Coef Coef. Valor T T Valor p FIV
Constante -12.28 3.85 -3.19 2.77644511 0.033
X1:NRS -0.053 0.241 -0.22 2.77644511 0.836 14.29 NO
X2:NRC 1.857 0.588 3.16 2.77644511 0.034 4.6 YES
X3:PI 0.407 0.103 3.96 2.77644511 0.017 21.85 YES
X4:AAC 1.58 1.18 1.34 2.77644511 0.252 5.35 NO
X5:NS -0.918 0.927 -0.99 2.77644511 0.378 17.44 NO

c) Set the multiple linear regression hyperplane with all the X's, Interpret b 2. Is the interpretation valid?

f) Get and interpret an estimate of the variance of b 1.

EE del
Término Coef Coef. Valor T Valor p FIV
Constante -12.28 3.85 -3.19 0.033
X1:NRS -0.053 0.241 -0.22 0.836 14.29
X2:NRC 1.857 0.588 3.16 0.034 4.6
X3:PI 0.407 0.103 3.96 0.017 21.85
X4:AAC 1.58 1.18 1.34 0.252 5.35
X5:NS -0.918 0.927 -0.99 0.378 17.44
 VAR(b1)= 0.058081

h) Obtain and interpret a confidence interval for the average sales at the point [1, 30, 9, 70, 4.5,7]

Xo[ 1 30 9 70 4.5 7]

-12.28 Y^= 32.017 1

-0.053 Sy*x's= 1.94589 Xto= 30
1.857 t0.025,4= 2.77644511 9
0.407 v= 4 70
1.58 Raiz= 0.5672178 4.5
-0.918 7

p( 28.9525169 < µY < 35.0814831 )=0.95

With a confidence level of 95% it is expected that the average annual sales will be at least
28.95 U and at most 35.08 U when X1: NRS=30, X2: NRC=9, X3: PI=70, X4: AAC=4.5 and
X5: NS=7.