Dobberhockey 201920 Fantasyguide

Dobber’s 2019-20 Fantasy Hockey Guide
Home of the Top Fantasy Hockey Player Rankings
Welcome to the 14th annual DobberHockey Fantasy Guide!
It‟s been a year of transition for Dobber Sports as we look to improve the look, feel and content of
everything we provide for fantasy hockey. Over the past year, we have improved, streamlined and added
tools to the Frozen Tools section – from a better player profile page to more reports in the Report Generator,
this is quickly becoming a rabbit hole in which you could easily lose yourself. You may have also noticed the
improved look and design of our documents, beginning with the Midseason Guide and carrying through with
the Fantasy Prospects Report as well as this very Guide. And then we re-launched DobberSports.com, finally
stepping out of our 2009 look with a nice, fresh 2019 appearance. As you are reading this,
DobberHockey.com could be re-launched – finally giving our elite content and rankings a less-clunky and
faster-loading feel.
This is all happening thanks to your support in buying these packages and coming back year after year. And
I will do my best to give you every reason to continue doing just that. It‟s more than simply presenting to
you a bunch of projections. I use this Guide to explain strategy and help you formulate a plan for your
players and/or draft. It‟s better to have the tools to change strategy and make decisions on the fly as
opposed to rigidly adhering to a number. But for what it‟s worth, last year I made 762 projections (a new
high), averaged 10.0 points off with 37.4% within five points (fifth-best in my 20 years of doing this) and
63.0% within 10 points (my fourth-best). Read the advice, review the updates (they happen more
frequently as we approach October) and stay prepared. In today‟s mobile world, that‟s really the only way
you can kick ass. Now go do it.
Dobber: @DobberHockey
PS – Once again I hyperlinked most of the player names in this Guide. Click on them and you‟ll be taken to
their player profile, making your research even easier! I encourage you to further your player research by
doing this whenever you have a question – not just for the stats but for a list of links to articles where we
mention/analyze the player. Our player section is completely free and updated throughout the season.
Important: Any updates beyond this original release will be in red. BUT, as usual, on September 20 (to
save your ink, for those who print this) the red will be removed. Any updates after this will again be in red.
So, if you want to know what has been updated prior to September 20, make sure you download this
document again by that date. I will not be highlighting my line combo changes because potentially the
entire chart will turn red. I will list all the changes at the end of this Guide but on September 20, I will
delete this list and start over. Update: Changes from Aug.1 to Sep 20 are no longer highlighted.
LAST UPDATE: October 03, 2019
DobberHockey’s 2019-20 Fantasy Hockey Guide

Published and distributed on August 1, 2019
Founder, Editor-in-Chief: Darryl Dobbs

Managing Editor: Ian Gooding Editors: Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson (DobberProspects.com)
Dobber Sports Managers: Eric Daoust (Tech); Mario Prata (Special Projects)
Columnists: Tom Collins, Brennan DeSouza, Adam Daly-Frey, Chris Kane,
Alexander MacLean, Brayden Olafson, Rick Roos
Graphics Designer, DobberSports.com: Glen Hoos
Cover photos: USA Today Sports Images

CONTENTS
Understanding the 2019-20 Schedule Colorado

Sleeper Picks – East Columbus
Sleeper Picks – West Dallas
NHL Entry Draft Review Detroit
Calder Nominees Edmonton
One-Way Contracts Florida
Outliers Los Angeles
Players to Slide Down Your List Minnesota
Goalies to Watch Montreal
PIM Producers Nashville
Best Long-Term Projects New Jersey
Advanced Stats - and Fantasy Hockey Long Island
5on5 S% Market Corrections New York
Breakout Threshold Ottawa
Team-by-Team Projections Philadelphia
Calder Trophy Rank Pittsburgh
Preseason Scoring Leaders San Jose
Projected Goals For St. Louis
Projected Final Standings Tampa Bay
Added/Changes Toronto
Anaheim Vancouver
Arizona Vegas
Boston Washington
Buffalo Winnipeg
Calgary Free Agents
Carolina Training Camp Invites
Chicago
www.dobberhockey.com Rule Your Pool! Page 3

A LOOK INSIDE THE 2019-20 SCHEDULE
By Adam Daly-Frey
Using the schedule to look for an added edge can be a tough, eye-crossing task. Luckily, these breakdowns are
here to highlight players and teams that could find some small, yet distinct advantages thanks to the schedule.
Back-to-backs
The relevancy of back-to-backs to fantasy owners is probably given more weight than it needs but the research
proves performance dips on tired teams (b2b, 4-in-6, etc.), so it‟s a good way to spot schedule losses ahead of
time. Beyond that, it‟s a great way to find out which backup goalies will get a bit more run. Seventeen (17) is the
maximum number of back-to-back games this year – the Pennsylvania teams drew the short end of the stick there
– while only two teams are in the single-digits.
B2B B2B
Anaheim Ducks 12 Nashville Predators 12
Arizona Coyotes 13 New Jersey Devils 16
Boston Bruins 13 New York Islanders 11
Buffalo Sabres 14 New York Rangers 13
Calgary Flames 10 Ottawa Senators 14
Carolina Hurricanes 16 Philadelphia Flyers 17
Chicago Blackhawks 16 Pittsburgh Penguins 17
Colorado Avalanche 12 San Jose Sharks 12
Columbus Blue Jackets 16 St. Louis Blues 9
Dallas Stars 15 Tampa Bay Lightning 15
Detroit Red Wings 14 Toronto Maple Leafs 14
Edmonton Oilers 9 Vancouver Canucks 12
Florida Panthers 16 Vegas Golden Knights 12
Los Angeles Kings 15 Washington Capitals 12
Minnesota Wild 11 Winnipeg Jets 10
Montreal Canadiens 14
 Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have the most back-to-backs with 17 and while the Penguins are fairly set with
Matt Murray as the clear starter and Casey DeSmith the backup, the goalie picture in Philly is a bit murkier:
Carter Hart took the starting job last year but his career high in games played is 63 (WHL), while Brian
Elliott is eating $2MM in cap space as a competent backup. Expect Hart to retain the starting job but don‟t
expect more than 50-52 starts.
 New Jersey, Carolina, Chicago, Columbus and Florida all slot in with the next-most b2bs with 16, and there‟s
only one clear starter in the bunch – the 70-million-dollar man, Sergei Bobrovsky. He‟s a clear target as a
goalie who will get a long leash this season and will probably see a slight increase over the 63-65-62 games he
has played the past three seasons. That may impact his performance but he‟s one of the very few workhorse
goalies going and worth targeting.
 The situations in Columbus, Carolina and New Jersey are ones to avoid even as all three teams should be
playoff-quality. The Blue Jackets are starting Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins, who have a combined

90 NHL games, Carolina has two „1B‟ goalies in Petr Mrazek and James Reimer, and the Devils are pulling
Cory Schneider back out to play ahead of Mackenzie Blackwood.
o Merzilikins is an interesting last-round flyer, as his play in the Swiss league has consistently been at .922
SV% or above. Korpisalo had a chance to briefly steal the starting job in Columbus when Bobrovsky was
scuffling but couldn‟t come up with it.
o The same applies to Blackwood. Schneider put up a brutal .903 SV% last season but will get the chance to
start given his salary. With all the back-to-backs, though, Blackwood will definitely get to show he‟s better.
 The Blues have only nine back-to-backs which should be a good sign for Jordan Binnington. However,
Binnington will be affected by the same obstacle hurting Carter Hart: his age and lack of games played.
Binnington has never played more than 45 in an AHL season, his OHL high was 50, and last year he only had
48 combined games between the AHL and NHL. Jake Allen should be in line to start ~30 games and could
regain the form he had when he first came to the big leagues.
 Some goalies who may be undervalued in good opportunities:
o Martin Jones appeals, as the Sharks tried and failed with Aaron Dell last year and have no other
answers. They only have 12 back-to-backs.
o Phillip Grubauer has never topped 37 games. With only Pavel Francouz behind him, and 12 back-to-
backs, he‟s in line to top that with Semyon Varlamov gone.
o He‟s not on a great team, but Devan Dubnyk is Minnesota‟s workhorse. He‟s played 60+ games the past
four seasons (58 in 2014-15) and is a great add for leagues that don‟t track GA(A). The Wild have only 11
back-to-backs and Alex Stalock isn‟t much of a threat to steal games.
 Connor Hellebuyck is an intriguing target again as the Jets have only 10 back-to-backs – the same number
as last season, when Helle started 63 games. He took a step back last year and Laurent Brossoit took a step
up, but expect to see Hellebuyck get the nod 60+ times again.
 For weekly owners, it‟s important to consider goaltending in the final stretch of the season for playoff
purposes. Looking at teams‟ last 15 games of the season can point out some areas to avoid or target:
o Only one team has zero back-to-backs in their last 15, and it‟s the reigning Cup champion. That will bode
well for Jordan Binnington and will mean the Jake Allen starts mostly come in the months before March. But
it does mean the potential of a nightmare for Binnington owners if the Blues have a spot locked up early.
o The Coyotes, Flames, Avs, Wings, Oilers, Canadiens, and Jets are the teams with only one late back-to-
back. That‟s good news for Carey Price, Grubauer and Hellebuyck owners, but the other teams either have
iffy goalie situations or won‟t make the playoffs, so who knows what they‟ll decide to do.
o The incredibly unlucky teams (four or more late b2b) are the Ducks, Hurricanes, Wild, Predators, Flyers,
Penguins, and Lightning. That‟s not a great situation for Pekka Rinne, whose age will probably impact his
number of starts in the first place, but a presumed playoff push will either mean he‟s on the bench or
taking suboptimal starts.
Strength of schedule
The following chart highlights opponents‟ total Goals For and Goals Against from last year weighted slightly with
home/road splits. While this is an imperfect way of looking at strength of schedule given coaching changes and/or
roster changes, there‟s still value in this chart – teams in the East look likely to continue scoring at will given the
poor defensive teams in their conference, as an example – but this is just a caveat that last year is not predictive
of this year.

The chart ranks Opponent Goals For from 1-31, with 1 being good (consider goalies from these teams), and it ranks
Opponent Goals Against from 1-31, with 1 being good (consider players from these teams).
Opp. GF Opp. GA
San Jose Sharks 1 Boston Bruins 1
Calgary Flames 2 New York Islanders 2
Winnipeg Jets 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Vegas Golden Knights 4 Montreal Canadiens 4
Colorado Avalanche 5 Carolina Hurricanes 5
Chicago Blackhawks 6 Toronto Maple Leafs 6
St. Louis Blues 7 Columbus Blue Jackets 7
Tampa Bay Lightning 8 Pittsburgh Penguins 8
Nashville Predators 9 Buffalo Sabres 9
Edmonton Oilers 10 Washington Capitals 10
Los Angeles Kings 11 Calgary Flames 11
Arizona Coyotes 12 Detroit Red Wings 12
Vancouver Canucks 13 Florida Panthers 13
Washington Capitals 13 Nashville Predators 14
Anaheim Ducks 15 Dallas Stars 15
Pittsburgh Penguins 16 Arizona Coyotes 16
Minnesota Wild 17 Vegas Golden Knights 17
Toronto Maple Leafs 18 New York Rangers 18
Columbus Blue Jackets 19 New Jersey Devils 19
Dallas Stars 20 Anaheim Ducks 20
Carolina Hurricanes 21 Vancouver Canucks 21
Philadelphia Flyers 22 Ottawa Senators 22
Florida Panthers 23 Philadelphia Flyers 23
Boston Bruins 24 St. Louis Blues 24
New York Islanders 25 San Jose Sharks 25
New York Rangers 26 Los Angeles Kings 26
New Jersey Devils 27 Minnesota Wild 26
Montreal Canadiens 28 Winnipeg Jets 28
Ottawa Senators 29 Colorado Avalanche 29
Detroit Red Wings 30 Edmonton Oilers 30
Buffalo Sabres 31 Chicago Blackhawks 31
 The expectation in Chicago is that Robin Lehner will see a downgrade in nets given the system change from
Barry Trotz to Jeremy Colliton, and while that‟s true, Chicago has one of the easier defensive schedules this
year. The Central isn‟t loaded with high-scoring teams, so don‟t knock Lehner down too far in your rankings.
 Another year where the Eastern Conference goalies are a scary proposition: only four of the bottom-15 teams
in Opponent G.A. are in the East.
 Martin Jones is appealing for his B2B schedule, but he‟s also appealing thanks to the Sharks‟ great Opponent
G.F. ranking.
 Other appealing goalies include Andrei Vasilevskiy (the only Eastern team in the top-10 Opponent G.F.),
Philipp Grubauer and Marc-Andre Fleury.
 The entire Atlantic Division has a very strong schedule in terms of goal scoring, thanks to half of their division
allowing 270+ goals last year. While some teams (Buffalo, Florida) saw positive change in their defensive

units, or in net, they probably won‟t improve by 30+ goals, and the Leafs, Sens and Red Wings should
continue to be porous defensively.
 Some players with tremendous upside compared to their likely ADP will be found in Buffalo, Detroit and
Florida, especially in points-only leagues. Getting exposure to power play units is a good way to go about this,
especially targeting d-men like Keith Yandle, or Filip Hronek as a late flyer.
 Nashville should improve on their 240 Goals For, even in the tough Central. The additions of Matt Duchene
this summer and Mikael Granlund at the Trade Deadline last year should help balance their top-six and give
them two strong scoring lines, as well as a marked improvement on their 12.94% PP conversion rate.
Off-days / Mondays & Wednesdays
Off-days deserve a lot of consideration when making a draft ranking for fantasy players that play in weekly
leagues, as Monday/Wednesday/Friday/Sunday don‟t see as many games played as Tuesday/Thursday/Saturday.
In fact, of the 2542 games played, 1572 will take place on Tues/Thu/Sat (61.8%).
Monday and Wednesday are the lightest days on the schedule – 432 combined games versus 538 on Friday and
Sunday – so, they‟re also highlighted here.
OFF- M/W OFF- M/W

DAYS DAYS
Anaheim Ducks 46 20.73% Nashville Predators 20 13.41%
Arizona Coyotes 29 19.51% New Jersey Devils 28 10.98%
Boston Bruins 26 14.63% New York Islanders 27 15.85%
Buffalo Sabres 31 14.63% New York Rangers 39 20.73%
Calgary Flames 28 17.07% Ottawa Senators 32 24.39%
Carolina Hurricanes 28 6.10% Philadelphia Flyers 29 18.29%
Chicago Blackhawks 36 13.41% Pittsburgh Penguins 34 12.20%
Colorado Avalanche 38 26.83% San Jose Sharks 27 13.41%
Columbus Blue Jackets 35 20.73% St. Louis Blues 32 19.51%
Dallas Stars 33 18.29% Tampa Bay Lightning 25 14.63%
Detroit Red Wings 36 12.20% Toronto Maple Leafs 27 19.51%
Edmonton Oilers 42 26.83% Vancouver Canucks 35 20.73%
Florida Panthers 25 17.07% Vegas Golden Knights 33 15.85%
Los Angeles Kings 28 18.29% Washington Capitals 42 28.05%
Minnesota Wild 26 9.76% Winnipeg Jets 33 8.54%
Montreal Canadiens 20 14.63%
 Anaheim continues to lead the league in off-day games, as they have for the past three seasons. This always
adds value to players like Rickard Rakell or Cam Fowler, but it adds even more for John Gibson – goalies
with off-day games are a great commodity in weeklies.
 Carolina plays 23 games on a Friday or Sunday – their owner loves matinees and weekend games – and only
five times on a Monday or Wednesday.
 Try to avoid owning a combo of Carey Price, Pekka Rinne, Sergei Bobrovsky and Andrei Vasilevskiy in a
weekly league, as their starts will overlap consistently, which ruins their value as workhorses.
Adam Daly-Frey pens ‘Looking Ahead’ every Friday on DobberHockey.com

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SLEEPER PICKS: EASTERN CONFERENCE
By Brennan DeSouza
Finding value in the later rounds of your draft can be the difference between championship glory and sore-loser
sadness. Sleepers are players that aren‟t getting the attention they deserve for the fantasy value they bring – the
rest of your league is „sleeping‟ on them. The following list of sleeping beauties will guide your fantasy season
towards a fairy tale ending.
(in alphabetical order)
Pavel Buchnevich, W, Rangers
The Rangers seriously upgraded their forward corps through the addition of Artemi Panarin and Kaapo Kakko,
which means Buchnevich will be exposed to a higher level of talent as a member of the top-six. It would make
sense to play him on the top line and power-play unit beside Panarin and Mika Zibanejad.
Anthony Cirelli, C, Lightning
The 22-year-old‟s limited role on a stacked Lightning roster might limit his present fantasy hockey value but it‟s
hard to ignore his production from late last year. He tallied 15 points in the final 20 games of the regular season
and wasn‟t heavily reliant on Steven Stamkos or Nikita Kucherov in the process. Considering coach Jon Cooper
trusted Cirelli enough to use him on the top line during the playoffs, I think there‟s a good chance he sees an
increased role during the 2019-20 campaign.
Brett Connolly, RW, Panthers
As I look through his career ice-time, I notice that Connolly has never really been given a huge opportunity. The
Capitals allowed him to play for a career-high 13 minutes per night last season and he rewarded them with a
career-high 46 points. Maybe he‟s most productive as a depth-scorer but if the Panthers were to give him a
chance on the second line beside Vincent Trocheck and Mike Hoffman, it could benefit everyone involved.
Jordan Eberle, RW, Islanders
The nifty winger tallied 37 points last season – the lowest total of his career. Eberle managed 38 points in the
lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign, despite playing 30 less games! Now 29, he‟s been a pretty safe bet to tally
50 to 60 points throughout his career, so it seems safe to say that last year was the outlier. Allow your fellow GMs
to buy into the narrative that coach Barry Trotz‟s defensive system has stunted Eberle‟s offensive numbers as you
draft him in the later rounds.
Aaron Ekblad, D, Panthers
There seems to be a narrative that Ekblad‟s status as a good defenseman does not translate to the realm of
fantasy hockey. I think the arrival of Sergei Bobrovsky and Anton Stralman in Florida will take a little pressure off
of Ekblad defensively, giving him a better chance to flourish offensively. Keith Yandle‟s presence will likely prevent
him from ever being a top fantasy option, but I still think 2019-20 will be a year to remember for Ekblad.
Alex Galchenyuk, C/W, Penguins
It‟s tempting to write off Galchenyuk as a 50-point player based on what we‟ve see from him so far, but I feel like
some untapped potential will come to light when he debuts in Pittsburgh. Galchenyuk has flirted with the 20-goal
mark throughout his career, and notably tallied 30 goals during the 2015-2016 campaign. Unlike his time in
Montreal and Arizona, Galchenyuk isn‟t expected to be „the guy‟ in Pittsburgh and I think he‟ll flourish in a role
where he isn‟t expected to carry as much of the load.

Erik Haula, C/W, Hurricanes
The 28-year-old missed 67 games last year with a serious knee injury. His recent lengthy absence will make most
fantasy managers forget that he tallied 55 points in 76 games during the 2017-18 season. Haula‟s ability to play
both center and wing gives the Canes some lineup flexibility and should also increase the likelihood of him finding
a spot with the top two lines.
Kevin Hayes, C, Flyers
When Hayes signed a contract that pays him almost $50 million over the span of seven years, most people were
shocked at how much the Flyers gave the 27-year-old. That shock is what you‟re hoping to take advantage of
during your fantasy hockey drafts. Hopefully, some psychological aversion from your fellow managers will allow
Hayes to fall into your lap in the later rounds of the draft. It sure doesn‟t hurt that he could be playing in between
James van Riemsdyk and Jakub Voracek.
Filip Hronek, D, Red Wings
In his rookie campaign, the 21-year-old managed an impressive pace that saw him average one point every two
games through 46 contests. Considering Mike Green‟s recent seasons have been riddled with injuries, Hronek
should have an opportunity to take the point on the team‟s top power-play unit. Exposure to Detroit‟s top line of
Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha should help his offensive numbers.
Anthony Mantha, RW, Red Wings
Had he not missed a month of action with a hand injury last year, there‟s a good chance Mantha would have
broken the 60-point barrier for the first time in his career. He put up 33 points in the final 38 games of the season
and carried that momentum into the World Championship, where he tallied 14 points in nine games. Playing
beside Dylan Larkin will help Mantha toward a breakout 2019-20 campaign.
Victor Mete, D, Canadiens
It‟s hard to imagine a defenseman with 20 points in 120 career games being relevant in fantasy hockey, especially
one that hasn‟t yet scored a goal in the NHL. Mete‟s game saw drastic improvement last year after he spent some
time developing in the AHL. He worked on his shot in the offseason, adding another weapon to an arsenal that
already includes strong skating ability and heightened offensive awareness.
Nino Niederreiter, W, Hurricanes
Considering he put up 30 points in 36 games upon arriving in Carolina, I‟m hesitant to call Nino a „sleeper‟.
However, I‟m counting on the fact that your fellow fantasy managers will take a look at his career numbers, see
that he‟s never broken the 60-point barrier, and convince themselves that Andrei Svechnikov will take Nino‟s spot
on the top line. The reality is, Niederreiter has developed great chemistry with Sebastian Aho and Teuvo
Teravainen – so, expect that line to stay intact for the beginning of the season.
William Nylander, RW, Maple Leafs
It‟s incredibly hard to miss the first third of a season and still match your regular 60-point output. Nylander spent
a lot of time playing catch-up hockey last year after a length contract negotiation – an issue which won‟t be
prevalent during the upcoming year. If you have any doubts about Nylander‟s offensive abilities, I‟ll refer you to
the 18 points he tallied in eight games during May‟s World Championship, first in tournament scoring. Coach Mike
Babcock is likely to reunite Nylander with Auston Matthews, as the duo possesses extraordinary chemistry.
Gustav Nyquist, W, Blue Jackets
Artemi Panarin‟s departure will have a lot of fantasy managers turning their backs on the Blue Jackets, but they
forget that Cam Atkinson had a 35-goal season before Panarin arrived in Columbus. Nyquist put up a 65-point
pace last year on a Detroit team that wasn‟t very good, but recency bias will only have you remember his lack of
production with the Sharks. Pierre-Luc Dubois should round out the top line with Nyquist and Atkinson, and each
of the three players are capable of 60 points.

Ondrej Palat, LW, Lightning
Palat‟s fantasy value during the 2019-2020 campaign will depend on his ability to stay healthy. Over the past
couple of seasons, he‟s missed a considerable amount of time and his production has suffered as a result. Over his
career, when he plays at least 75 games in a season, he‟s been good for at least 50 points. Despite Tampa‟s deep
roster, he should be able to maintain a prominent role with the team due to his solid play on both ends of the ice.
Cory Schneider, G, Devils
Schneider‟s recent struggles have been well-documented, as he failed to register a win during the 2018 calendar
year – a losing streak which spanned 21 games. He had been battling injuries during the majority of that period
and eventually underwent hip surgery in May of 2018 – a procedure that requires a lengthy recovery. Now that
he‟s feeling better and the Devils have made considerable improvements to the roster, expect a bounce-back
season from New Jersey‟s netminder.
Wayne Simmonds, RW, Devils
Prior to a disappointing 2018-19 season, Simmonds had been a pretty reliable option for 25 to 30 goals. Now a
New Jersey Devil, he‟ll likely join the top power-play unit alongside Taylor Hall, P.K. Subban, Nico Hischier, and
potentially Jack Hughes and Nikita Gusev at other times. Over the past five seasons, Simmonds has tallied 59
power-play goals – only Alex Ovechkin and Steven Stamkos have scored more during that span.
Brady Tkachuk, LW, Senators
With public perception of the Senators at an all-time low, not many fantasy managers will be looking at Ottawa‟s
roster during their drafts. As a result, the youngest Tkachuk can provide an immense amount of fantasy hockey
value. Tkachuk tallied 45 points in 71 games during his first NHL season – second to only Elias Pettersson in rookie
scoring, and will be given every opportunity to succeed on a roster that doesn‟t feature many offensive options.
Jimmy Vesey, W, Sabres
Vesey‟s goal-scoring abilities were on display during his three seasons in New York, as he consistently eclipsed the
15-goal mark despite a lack of ice time. He enters an interesting situation in Buffalo, where he likely fits into a
third-line role but has the potential to crack the second unit. With new head coach Ralph Krueger in charge, none
of the lines are set in stone and Vesey should have an opportunity to improve his situation.
Jakub Vrana, LW, Capitals
Although he was seeing a mere 14 minutes of ice time each night, the 23-year-old tallied an impressive 47 points
in 82 games last season. With Andre Burakovsky shipped off to Colorado, Vrana doesn‟t have much competition
for his spot on the second line alongside Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie. Vrana scored on about 15% of his
shots last season and likely won‟t be as efficient during 2019-20. However, an increased role should help him
sustain solid production.
Brennan DeSouza pens the ‘Eastern Edge’ every Tuesday on DobberHockey.com

SLEEPER PICKS: WESTERN CONFERENCE
By Chris Kane
Every season, fantasy hockey managers try to uncover the diamond in the rough – that late-round pick, or the
waiver-wire grab that turns into pure fantasy gold. These additions can certainly make a fantasy season. This list
of West Coast sleepers is to help provide you with the lay of the land, players to keep an eye on at the draft table
and in free agency to give you an edge over your competition.
Jamie Benn, LW, Stars
This would not be complete without mentioning Benn. The former Art Ross winner had the second lowest pace of
his career, and the lowest since his rookie year. His 57 points is a far cry from the 80-90 we saw in recent years.
His draft value should be at an all-time low, and while I am not seeing the data to suggest an instant rebound to
80 points, 55 isn‟t likely his ceiling, either.
Jeff Carter, C, Kings
Carter‟s 33 points in 76 games was a disappointing output by any standard. At 34 years old, he is certainly
heading into his declining years. However, 33 points isn‟t his new standard. His underlying numbers were all
unusually low in 2018-19, so while he might not rebound to his usual 65-point pace, 55 is still within reason.
J.T. Compher, C, Avalanche
Compher was featured in our Wild West column several times last year, as he often lined up on the top power
play. He also ended the season seeing a fair amount of even-strength deployment with Nathan MacKinnon.
Colorado added Joonas Donskoi in the offseason, and while deployment is everything, Compher has the best shot
at it if history is any guide. A beneficial step there and an opportunity to play more than 66 games should see him
hitting career highs in 2019-20.
Joonas Donskoi, RW, Avalanche
Donskoi saw the lowest ice time of his career with the talent-heavy San Jose Sharks last year. With a trade to
Colorado, he has a new lease on life and an opportunity to earn more ice time alongside some skilled linemates.
As is the case with Compher, it remains to be seen how the Avs‟ forward lines will shake out exactly, but Donskoi
is a skilled player that should be able to take advantage of the opportunities that arise.
Mikael Granlund, C, Predators
Granlund had a less-than impressive debut in a Nashville uniform late last year, scoring only seven points in 22
games. His 4.9 shooting percentage in Nashville was quite a bit lower than his recent career average of 11.3%,
implying that he‟s due for some better luck in 2018-19. Granlund has averaged a quiet 65-point pace over the last
three seasons and is likely going to be lining up with Matt Duchene in 2019-20, so there is a lot to like here.
Jordan Greenway, LW, Wild
The 6-6 rookie‟s 24 points in 81 games didn‟t blow anyone away in 2018-19, however he increased his time on ice
in each quarter. The last half of the year, the majority of his even strength shifts were with Eric Staal and Jason
Zucker. If there is a spot to be successful in Minnesota, that is it. The real question mark comes with the signing of
Mats Zuccarello, and how the top six shakes out in Minny. If Greenway makes the cut he might be worth a flyer.
Roope Hintz, LW, Stars
Another rookie in 2018-19, Hintz burst onto the scene in the last quarter of the season by collecting 13 points in
his final 20 games. He spent most of his time with Tyler Seguin and Alex Radulov, though finished the season
with Jamie Benn and Radulov. He also saw top power-play billing with Seguin, Radulov and Benn. His strong

overall play should earn him top-six deployment. The additions of Joe Pavelski and Corey Perry could complicate
that, but it could also provide him strong linemates if he can secure that deployment.
Ondrej Kase, RW, Ducks
A hot pick going into 2018-19, as numerous projectors (this one included) were excited about his potential. Kase‟s
season was cut short by injuries, playing only 30 games. His 20 points in those 30 games would have resulted in a
55-point pace, his third successive year of increased totals. With a hopefully healthy season ahead, Kase is due.
Clayton Keller, C, Coyotes
The slick pivot makes this list, not so much because people don‟t know his name, but because people have short
memories and an average season will likely drop is draft position. His 47 points in 2018-19 may dull some
appetites, but don‟t forget his 65-point performance as a rookie, DobberProspects‟ A ranking comparing him
favorably to Patrick Kane, or that Phil Kessel will be joining him in Arizona.
Kevin Labanc, RW, Sharks
The 23-year-old had his most successful season in 2018-19, but the off-season changes in San Jose provide even
more fertile ground for improvement. The departures of Joonas Donskoi, Gustav Nyquist and Joe Pavelski open up
some gaping holes, and San Jose seems to believe they can fill them internally. That likely means Labanc will be
given the opportunity to step up and a career year in his fourth season is certainly not out of the question.
Cale Makar, D, Avalanche
With Tyson Barrie‟s departure, Makar has a chance to step up into an incredibly dangerous power-play unit. This is
a huge opportunity for him. In 10 playoff games in 2018-19, he put up six points, but that‟s his only NHL
experience to date. The Hobey Baker winner is highly recommended.
J.T. Miller, LW, Canucks
The veteran‟s 47 points in 75 games does not exactly inspire confidence for a follow-up season. A trade to
Vancouver gives us some reason for optimism. Miller is a solid winger and the prospect of him lining up with Elias
Pettersson is very appealing. A 55-60-point pace seems reasonable with that deployment.
Max Pacioretty, LW, Golden Knights
Based solely on the last two season‟s point totals, Pacioretty looks like he is due for a drop in draft position. Two
seasons of 37 and 40 points will do that. They represent a significant drop from the six prior seasons, where his
point-per-game numbers were between .78 and .89. The good news is that Mark Stone joining Vegas seems to be
the jolt Pacioretty needed. The final portion of last season (including the playoffs) saw Pacioretty produce .83
points per game, and again shoot over three shots per game. Pacioretty, Stone and Paul Stastny should be an
excellent line for Vegas.
Rickard Rakell, LW, Ducks
As is the case with Keller above, Rakell isn‟t a no-name candidate here, but with a 43-point season to his name,
he is likely going to drop in draft lists. The previous campaign in 2017-18 had marked the fourth consecutive year
that Rakell had improved his time on ice and point totals. All indications were that he was primed for another
strong season in 2018-19, but injuries and the tire fire that was Anaheim for most of the year were significant
drags on his performance. Look for him to right the ship in 2019-20.
Jack Roslovic, C, Jets
The skilled shooter spent much of last season on Winnipeg‟s third line for and finished with 24 points. Nine of
those points came in limited action on the second unit throughout January and February. Roslovic would be a solid
option to fill the gap left by an aging Bryan Little as a second-line center. If he can get the deployment, a 50-point
season is within reach.
Nick Schmaltz, C, Coyotes
Acquired from Chicago, Schmaltz as a Coyote is certainly intriguing. His most common linemates during last year‟s
abbreviated 17-game stint (because of injury) in Arizona were Clayton Keller and Alex Galchenyuk (now with

Pittsburgh). He saw 18 plus minutes of ice time per night and put up 14 points before the mishap. A full season
with a projected line combo of Keller and new acquisition Phil Kessel seems like a sure recipe for success.
Dylan Strome, C, Blackhawks
The third-overall pick in 2015 finally stuck to the NHL after two inconsistent years. His offensive log of 57 points in
78 games to finish 2018-19 was strong, but his showing of 51 points in 58 games just with the Blackhawks was
even better. He saw good ice time with Alex DeBrincat both on the man-advantage unit and at even strength,
averaging over three minutes of power-play time and 17 minutes of total ice time. Strome will surely be given a
consistent top-six opportunity in Chicago to start 2019-20.
Cam Talbot, G, Flames
The 32-year-old is coming off of two down years in Edmonton, but it‟s hard to pin the blame solely on him. The
Oilers have been a porous defensive team of late and outside of the Connor McDavid line, can‟t score to any
significant degree, either. In Calgary, Talbot will be supported much more effectively, which should lead to a
bounce-back season for the veteran netminder.
Robert Thomas, C, Blues
As a 19-year-old rookie, Thomas ended the 2018-19 season with 33 points in 70 games, which isn‟t necessarily
anything to write home about. By the end of the season, though, his playing time was topping 14 minutes a night
and his point production increased accordingly. He put up 13 points over his final 20 games, which is good for 53
points across a full season. DobberProspects.com ranks Thomas with top-six potential. For the moment, though,
that ceiling may be a bit limited, as top-six deployment might be tough to come by in St. Louis.
Jason Zucker, LW, Wild
A favorite of mine going into 2018-19, Zucker was coming off a couple of solid seasons, but last year‟s 42 points in
81 games didn‟t amount to a great showing. There were a number of variance markers that could have accounted
for the low performance: his team and personal shooting percentages were quite low. Fortunately, his shot rates
stayed consistent, as did his power-play time. If all corrects itself, the speedy Zucker should be able to rebound
into the 60-point range.
Chris Kane pens ‘The Wild West’ every Monday on DobberHockey.com

2019 DRAFT PICKS: WHAT TO EXPECT?
By Cam Robinson
The 2019 crop of prospects brings a little bit of everything to the fantasy hockey landscape. At the top, we have
two players both worthy of being selected first overall. There is a high-end defender that landed on a highly skilled
club, a potential 50-goal threat landing in a major Canadian market, and a could-be star netminder.
While it lacks the generational talent of 2015, or the depth of potentially elite producers that 2020 is forecasting,
this year's rendition of rookie draftees can still help your club. Need a potential top-line center? There are a few to
choose from. A multicat beast? Look no further than Vasily Podkolzin. A frustratingly impressive finisher? Arthur
Kaliyev is your guy. Mining outside of the lottery will test your fortitude, but there are gems to be had – as long as
you're looking in the right place.
1. Jack Hughes, LC, Devils
An exceptional skater, Hughes blends all the high-end skills you look for in a franchise-altering forward. He‟s at his
best with the puck on his stick and surrounded by intelligent linemates – those who can anticipate his creativity.
He‟ll have a few of those hanging around in New Jersey. A spot on the top power-play unit with Taylor Hall, P.K.
Subban, Nico Hischier, and possibly Nikita Gusev will provide immediate results. Where he lines up at even-
strength is still up in the air, but it‟ll certainly be in the top-six. Hughes‟ size (5-10, 168) may frighten some but it
won‟t slow him down. He models his game after Patrick Kane‟s and does an impressive job of it. Has a plus-rated
release but it‟s his vision, patience and dangerously quick hands that will ignite the gaudy point totals.
Upside Comparable: Patrick Kane (40-70-110, 30 PIM)

3YP: (36-55-91, 25 PIM)
Fantasy Upside / NHL Certainty: 60%, 100%
Expected Arrival: This fall.
DH Draft Advice: Blue-chip prospect, draft ASAP.
2. Kaapo Kakko, RW, Rangers
A dynamic, powerful, all-around offensive talent being slid into the most exciting young squads in the league is a
recipe for some serious fireworks. Kakko should be given every opportunity to stick on the top line across from
Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin at five-on-five and on the top power-play unit. The 18-year-old boasts a quick
and deadly release, fast hands and a mind for creating offense. Physically, he‟s better prepared to handle the
rigors of an NHL campaign than Hughes is. However, his pure ceiling is just a hair behind, which lands him in the
two-hole here just as it did on draft day.
Upside Comparable: Mikko Rantanen (40-50-90, 65 PIM)

3YP: (37-47-84, 50 PIM)
Expected Arrival: This fall.
3. Alex Turcotte, LC, Kings
Already an accomplished two-way player, Turcotte blends across-the-board talent with a smart and efficient style.
He boasts high-end offensive instincts, quick acceleration and a non-stop motor. He‟s a coach‟s dream, and if he
wasn‟t dead-set on playing at Wisconsin next fall, he could quite conceivably step right into the Kings lineup. LA is
slowing building their next wave and Turcotte will captain that ship.
Upside Comparable: Patrice Bergeron (35-50-85, 50 PIM)

3YP: (33-42-75, 35 PIM)
Expected Arrival: 2020-21, but may play the final few games of this season after college year is complete.

4. Kirby Dach, RHC, Blackhawks
A pass-first center who owns great awareness and deft puck skills, Dach uses his body well to protect the puck
and exploit seams. He tends to get caught watching the puck at times and can end up in vulnerable positions.
However, what he does with the puck can amaze. Has all the tools of a legitimate top-line pivot. Dach will have
some very real winger options waiting in Chicago when he leaps.
Upside Comparable: Ryan Getzlaf (25-60-85, 70 PIM)

3YP: (27-48-75, 50 PIM)
Expected Arrival: 2020-21
5. Cole Caufield, RW, Canadiens
Hyper-skilled but undersized (5-7) winger brings all the firepower you can handle. Set the USNTDP goal-scoring
record while converting on more than a goal per game. Finds the soft areas of the ice and needs very little time to
exploit them. Effectively changes the angle on his release to deceive netminders. The best pure goal-scorer in the
class will have a few nice center options to work with in Montreal, but it‟s difficult not to envision him and Jesperi
Kotkaniemi becoming a duo down the line. You don‟t draft a player like Caufield to play him outside of the top-six.
He‟ll receive every opportunity when his time at the University of Wisconsin ends.
Upside Comparable: Alex DeBrincat (45-35-80, 40 PIM)

3YP: (36-30-66, 30 PIM)
Expected Arrival: Probably 2021-22
DH Draft Advice: Should be drafted in the first couple of rounds.
6. Bowen Byram, LD, Avalanche
An explosive skater that can act as a one-man breakout. He blends his terrific acceleration and north-south speed
with lateral edgework and play-creation through the neutral zone. Owns a heavy shot that is effective in all
situations. Landing in Colorado provides a double-edged sword. He‟ll immediately be lining up with some all-world
players. However, his path to the top of the offensive heap is far from clear. Cale Makar is the heir to the top
power-play throne, and despite playing the opposite side of the rink, it‟s unlikely the Avs employ a three-forward,
two-defender setup. That could mean long stretches of secondary power-play time and perhaps a slightly less
exciting fantasy upside. Despite all this, he remains the cream of the blueline options.
Upside Comparable: Drew Doughty (15-45-60, 70 PIM)

3YP: (13-38-51, 50 PIM)
DH Draft Advice: Blue-chip prospect, draft ASAP
7. Vasili Podkolzin, RW, Canucks
A competitive, all-around forward who has flashed high-end offensive skills. Podkolzin takes every puck battle
personally and his mood on the ice can only be described as cantankerous. This can lead to him leaning a little too
much on the defensive side of things. However, a potential home beside Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser could
provide the opportunity necessary to foster his complete ceiling. Podkolzin has two years remaining on his deal
with SKA in the KHL. Afterward, it‟s expected he‟ll step right into the Canucks top-six. If things break right
offensively, he could be the steal of the draft at pick 10.
Upside Comparable: Gabriel Landeskog (35-45-80, 95 PIM)

3YP: (30-39-69, 70 PIM)
DH Draft Advice: Blue-chip prospect, draft ASAP
8. Trevor Zegras, LC/LW, Ducks
A creative player with exciting puck skills. Zegras blends plus-speed with unique lines to cause separation through
the neutral zone and distribute effectively to his mates. Immediately steps in as the Ducks top offensive prospect
but is likely two years away. May be better suited for the wing but the center depth chart in Anaheim could keep
him down the middle. Creativity, soft hands and high-end playmaking ability. Can be weak away from the puck
and needs to add power to his shot to keep defenders honest. He can work on those while plying his trade at
Boston University.
Upside Comparable: Clayton Keller (25-50-75, 55 PIM)

3YP: (18-50-68, 30 PIM)
9. Dylan Cozens, RHC, Sabres
A long, powerful stride drives his elite speed and adds fire to his complete game. Cozens owns an accurate and
heavy release and uses that threat to look-off defenders and slide crisp passes into his mate‟s wheelhouses. Loves
to win one-on-one battles. A natural pivot but plays the right-wing effectively. Will slide seamlessly into a young
top-six core in Buffalo soon.
Upside Comparable: Ryan Johansen (35-45-80, 65 PIM)

3YP: (30-30-60, 50 PIM)
10. Moritz Seider, RD, Red Wings
A two-way defender with great size and very good skating ability. Has witnessed his developmental arc race
upwards in the last year, culminating with his selection at sixth overall. He remains something of a raw talent, but
possess the most upside of any blueline prospect in Detroit‟s burgeoning pool. His recent play against men
indicates he may be closer to being NHL-ready than many others from this class. However, Detroit is well-known
for slow-cooking their assets, so keep an eye on his progression and that of the Red Wings blueline.
Upside Comparable: Aaron Ekblad (12-35-47, 60 PIM)

3YP: (7-37-44, 40 PIM)
DH Draft Advice: Potential star to draft during the late rounds (if you can afford to wait a few years).
11. Matthew Boldy, LW, Wild
A slick, power-winger who can act as a chameleon for whatever his line needs most. Brings an intelligent and
efficient game to the rink each night and provides a unique combination of skills. Has a deadly release that can
beat goaltenders in various ways. Joins the Wild‟s prospect pool as the most projectable left-wing option – even
with Kirill Kaprizov inching closer to a potential North American debut. Will ply his trade for at least one season at
Boston College. His deft two-way style will likely help facilitate an earlier arrival.
Upside Comparable: Mark Stone (35-40-75, 70 PIM)

3YP: (30-30-60, 55 PIM)
12. Arthur Kaliyev, RW, Kings
A shoot-first winger that knows how to fill a scoresheet. Has the ability to change his release point and angle to
exploit netminders‟ positioning. Protects the puck well and can pull defenders and exploit the open man. A glaring
lack of engagement and pace haunt his game, which led to his slipping out of the first round. However, there are
few players from this class with such natural offensive abilities. Last year, he joined Steven Stamkos, Alex
DeBrincat, John Tavares, and Jeff Skinner as the only U18 OHL skaters to score 50-goals in the last 20 years.
High-ceiling, low-floor player.
Upside Comparable: Patrik Laine (40-40-80, 60 PIM)

3YP: (28-30-58, 40 PIM)
13. Alex Newhook, LHC, Avalanche
Speed for days and the disregard for safety to use it anywhere. Dangerous hands, good hockey sense and is
equally deadly with the pass or the shot. Already a strong defensive player and effective penalty-killer. His first
three steps are explosive and use them to create separation all over the rink. The acquisition of Nazem Kadri will
take pressure off of Newhook to become a core player too soon. Somehow, Colorado will be adding more speed
and skill to their top-six in the not-so-distant future.
Upside Comparable: Matt Duchene (35-45-70, 60 PIM)

3YP: (28-35-63, 40 PIM)
14. Philip Broberg, LD, Oilers
The powerful left-shot defender loves to join the rush and is often leading it. The speed he generates from his first
few strides is rare. This ability affords him many offensive chances and also facilitates him recovering and cleaning
up his mistakes. However, his hockey sense and puck skills have yet to catch up to his feet. More consistency in
picking his spots to run and continually improved defensive positioning will be needed for him to maximize his
potential. However, in Edmonton, the potential of pairing Broberg with Evan Bouchard on a Connor McDavid-led
power play could provide vaulted stats. The Oilers may rush him, as they‟ve done so often with other top
prospects in the past, but his true value lies down the line.
Upside Comparable: Alex Edler (10-45-55, 70 PIM)

3YP: (7-29-36, 45 PIM)
Expected Arrival: 2020-21.
15. Peyton Krebs, LC, Golden Knights
A highly-skilled, high-motor pivot that has provided impressive results in a very difficult position. Playing on one of
the CHL‟s doormat franchises in Kootenay, Krebs managed to drive play positively, exhibit strong leadership
qualities and add offensive production. He‟s a deft playmaker but has nice awareness to use his shot
effectively. His versatility could lead to him becoming eligible in any of the three forward slots. An Achilles‟ tendon
injury suffered during offseason training will be a hiccup and likely pushes his NHL start date back a hair.
Upside Comparable: Mathew Barzal (25-55-80, 60 PIM)

3YP: (22-38-60, 45 PIM)
Expected Arrival: 2020-21.
16. Spencer Knight, G, Panthers
Knight would‟ve landed higher up this list if it were not for Sergei Bobrovsky and his monstrous seven-year deal
that was consummated on July 1. The young athlete brings all the attributes you look for in a premier goaltending
prospect – size, athleticism, a desire to win, and the calm demeanor. He‟ll marinate at Boston College before
tracking his way to the American League. Once considered a potential fast-track type, the Bobrovsky signing likely
negates that possibility.
Upside Comparable: Cory Schneider (38-22-4, .920 SV%, 2.55 GAA)

3YP: (33-20-3)
Expected Arrival: A long wait – 2022-23 at best.

17. Phillip Tomasino, RHC, Predators
The highly intelligent, two-way center went later on day one of the NHL Draft when the Preds snapped him up
24nd overall. One of the youngest in the 2019 crop has good puck skills and a penchant for scoring big goals. Has
a heavy and accurate release which, in the long term, might be better suited on the wing. He‟ll be a bit of a wait.
Upside Comparable: Dylan Larkin (35-35-70 50 PIM)

3YP: (25-30-55, 35 PIM)
Expected Arrival: Probably 2021-22.
DH Draft Advice: Too soon. Wait until next year to consider drafting.
18. Nils Hoglander, LW, Canucks
The projected first-rounder slid to Round 2 for the Canucks and doing so ends up in a nice position. Vancouver is
light on high-end winger prospects, so he immediately lands at the top of the left-wing heap. Hoglander possesses
a non-stop motor, great speed and sublime puck skills. He brings confidence to the rink each night and backs it up
with skill and effort. Has two more seasons on his deal with Rogle (SHL) but could cross over early.
Upside Comparable: Viktor Arvidsson (30-35-65, 70 PIM)

3YP: (27-28-55, 50 PIM)
19. Victor Soderstrom, RD, Coyotes
Any time a 17-year-old plays his entire draft-eligible season in the SHL, you take notice. Soderstrom accomplished
that and more by playing top-four minutes for Brynäs, where he showcased his mobility, creativity and strong
transitional play. Coyotes GM John Chyka told reporters they had Soderstrom as the third-best player in the class.
Holding the young Swede in such high regard will facilitate future opportunities on the offensive side of the game.
Upside Comparable: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (10-40-50, 45 PIM)

3YP: (7-33-40, 35 PIM)
20. Nicholas Robertson, LW, Maple Leafs
Minus some size, Robertson offers the full offensive package. A great skater who blends quick acceleration with
sharp edges and high-end puck skills. Vision and awareness on the ice are mature beyond his years. Toronto
snagged him late in the second round as potentially one of the best potential value picks in the class. Another
young player for this crop, he‟s likely a long way off.
Upside Comparable: William Nylander (25-45-70, 45 PIM)

3YP: (20-30-50, 35 PIM)
21. Bobby Brink, RHC/RW, Flyers
A deadly offensive player with quick hands, elite brain and a nose for finishing plays. The top offensive full-time
USHL player last season, he also performed on the big stage with the Americans on the international scene. The
knocks are easy to pinpoint. He desperately needs to improve his skating mechanics or risk falling behind a step.
He‟s also 5-8. Despite all that, his upside remains intriguing.
Upside Comparable: Brayden Point (40-40-80, 50 PIM)

3YP: (25-25-50, 40 PIM)

22. Ville Heinola, LD, Jets
A carving, mobile, left-shot defender who played top-four minutes in the Finnish Liiga last season. Isn‟t the largest
or fastest player on the ice, but has the intelligence and creativity needed to thrive in the modern game. Watch
out for him to cross at the end of his 2019-20 season to test out the North American ice in the American Hockey
League. He‟s closer than many give him credit.
Upside Comparable: Nate Schmidt (10-40-50, 40 PIM)

3YP: (8-33-41, 40 PIM)
23. Thomas Harley, LD, Stars
The efficient and play-driving defender landed in Dallas, where he‟ll be given plenty of time and space to develop.
Harley improved his lateral quickness in 2018-19 and his overall speed makes him a threat off of the rush. Just a
few weeks shy of being eligible for the 2020 class, he remains raw but possesses a nice upside.
Upside Comparable: Jake Gardiner (10-40-50, 50 PIM)

3YP: (8-28-36, 40 PIM)
24. Lassi Thomson, RD, Ottawa
Thomson is a mobile defender who loves to join the rush. He‟s an effective player on the man-advantage unit due
to his cannon of a shot and the ability to find lanes to the net. His playmaking ability leaves something to be
desired, so he‟ll be reliant on others to hit him in the wheelhouse.
Upside Comparable: Brandon Montour (13-37-50, 50 PIM)

3YP: (10-25-35, 40 PIM)
25. Cam York, LHD, USNTDP/USDP
York is a mobile and calm defender with tremendous skating ability. He‟s an effective power-play quarterback and
owns the mobility needed to clean up any mistakes he makes. His all-around game and lack of truly elite offensive
upside will likely limit him to secondary offensive minutes.
Upside Comparable: Shea Theodore (10-35-45, 50 PIM)

3YP: (6-27-33, 30 PIM)
Cam Robinson writes Daily Ramblings on DobberHockey.com

and is Managing Editor at DobberProspects.com

CALDER TROPHY CANDIDATES
By Brayden Olafson
Historically, the odds of accurately predicting the NHL‟s rookie of the year are relatively high. I stress relatively,
because the eligible player pool for the award is, in most cases, smaller than the other awards. That being said,
last October, Jordan Binnington would have been nowhere near the top-3 in the projected Calder Trophy voting. In
some cases, a rookie breakout is more a case of a player receiving an opportunity that he hasn‟t in the past –
players on new teams, or who might simply be looking up at a revised depth chart. This list looks at a diverse
group of youngsters that will have an opportunity to become the next great NHL rookie.
Alex Barre-Boulet, C, Lightning
Undrafted. Undersized. Underappreciated. Barre-Boulet stepped into the professional circuit with the Syracuse
Crunch with low expectations last year. Those expectations were quickly blown out of the water as he chased the
league scoring title out of the gate. His near point-per-game rookie campaign with the Crunch put him on prospect
radars, but the 22-year-old forward will have to jockey with other prospects in order to earn a permanent stake on
the Lightning‟s roster. Among prospects in Tampa Bay‟s system, he may now have the highest offensive ceiling.
Drake Batherson, RW, Senators
Now 21, Batherson sits in a position amongst Ottawa prospects, much like that of Alex Formenton, however, with
slightly more experience at the professional level. The skilled winger likely has a leg up on his young prospect
counterparts for an NHL opportunity having proven himself in the AHL with Belleville last year. Batherson has the
shot, speed and skill to make it at the pro level.
Emil Bemstrom, C, Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets offseason saw the mass walkout of several high-profile UFAs, leaving the team with holes at
almost every position. After a relatively cavalier Draft+1 campaign split between the SuperElit and the
Allsvenskan, Bemstrom followed up with an outstanding debut in the SHL. The now 20-year-old will be a serious
contender to earn a spot in the Jackets lineup come opening night. A Calder run, however, will take much more
than just a spot in the lineup, but Bemstrom seems to be on the right trajectory for a hot start.
Evan Bouchard, D, Oilers
Edmonton fans have been craving for a bonafide top-pair, right-shot defenseman. While top-pair status is certainly
a couple of years away, Edmonton‟s 10th-overall selection in 2018 has a real opportunity to make an immediate
impact in the NHL. His current competition runs as high in the depth chart as a third defenseman versus Adam
Larsson, and as low as ninth in the depth chart versus Brandon Manning. It‟s also entirely possible that Bouchard
misses the call altogether and is forced to spend some time in Bakersfield.
Erik Brannstrom, D, Senators
The Senators weren‟t shy about acquiring a bevy of depth defensive options this offseason, despite the thrilling
acquisition of one of the league‟s top defensive prospects at last year‟s trade deadline. Brannstrom is an
exceptionally gifted skater with the offensive aptitude of the top five percentile of blueliners under 22 years old,
possibly higher. Perhaps the angle of Senators‟ management is to present a more competitive environment for
Brannstrom to thrive in. However, at face value, the NHL experience opposing him could lead to a short-term
vision that unfortunately doesn‟t include their shiny new toy.
Kyle Capobianco, D, Coyotes
A true dark horse – every list requires one, or two. Frankly, the Arizona defenseman is a longshot for the Calder.
First, there‟s the East Coast bias. And second, he‟s not all that high on Arizona‟s depth chart. But there are a few
things going for him. Historically, the Yotes have been injury-riddled, especially on the blue line. His AHL
production has been outstanding for a defenseman, let alone for one of his age and experience. Capobianco is
worthy of an opportunity outside of injuries, but nothing helps a Calder narrative more than being the player who
worked his way up the lineup to make a difference on a team that could be a bit of a Cinderella story themselves.
Max Comtois, LW, Ducks
Perhaps no player on this list has seen their stock rise and fall more frequently since arriving on NHL radars than
Comtois. At several points prior to being drafted, Comtois was considered to be a top-5 talent in his draft class.
Since then, the Quebec native has influenced ebbs and flows in his value – currently riding a sustained flow. His
immediate success at the NHL level last fall bodes well for his future in the league, especially on a retooling Ducks‟
squad that has no reason to not give him every opportunity to succeed.
Kirby Dach, C, Blackhawks
After a strong development camp, the Saskatoon Blades‟ product signed an entry-level contract with the
Blackhawks just a week into July. His physical maturity makes him one of the stronger candidates from the 2019
Draft to get an early opportunity in the NHL. One factor that plays against Dach‟s potential for a Calder bid this
year is the multitude of European free agents that the Hawks have brought in to challenge for NHL jobs. The 6-4,
18-year-old pivot is considered to have a high offensive ceiling. Great toolbox.
Dillon Dube, C/LW, Calgary Flames
At first look, the recent anti-blockbuster trade which sent James Neal to Edmonton in exchange for Milan Lucic
might seem like a bit of a wash for prospect stakeholders. The reality, however, may be that in acquiring Lucic
from Edmonton, the Flames allow the void left by Neal to be filled with Dube, a budding prospect. Dube was a
point-per-game producer in the AHL last year and the Flames are likely itching to find him a suitable spot in the
lineup. Dube‟s Calder bid will hinge on the trust that he‟s able to build with Bill Peters early in the campaign.
Dante Fabbro, D, Predators
After ditching Boston University upon completion of his junior campaign, the Terriers‟ captain dipped his toes in
the pond of the NHL, completing a 10-game stint that bridged into the postseason. By moving ulta-offensive
blueliner P.K. Subban this summer, the Preds have strongly implied that they intend to give the collegiate alumnus
every opportunity to work his way up the lineup. Fabbro is a talented and poised defender that will almost
certainly experience some growing pains. Fortunately, the 21-year-old will be able to rely on the experience of one
of the best defensive cores in the pro circuit.
Alex Formenton, LW, Senators
After allowing his entry-level-contract to slide for a second consecutive year, the Senators are in a position where
they are unlikely to hold the speedy winger back any longer. How Ottawa‟s opening night roster shapes up is
anyone's guess, but that should give hope to players like Formenton to earn a juicy role out of the gate. His foot-
speed is second-to-none, which could make him a candidate for Ottawa‟s penalty-killing group.
Adam Fox, D, Rangers
An NCAA defenseman hasn‟t won the Calder award since 1988-89, when Brian Leetch eclipsed a point per game
with the Rangers. Fox, a Harvard alumnus, will likely be counted on to contribute to the Rangers power play
almost immediately, alongside fellow newcomer Jacob Trouba. His ability to defend has been questioned by some
but he‟s a strong puck carrier and will likely be put in a position to highlight that strength early on.
Cody Glass, C, Golden Knights
The lone first-round draft pick that remains from the Knights‟ inaugural Entry Draft in 2018 marinated in the WHL.
Glass brings speed, skill and an exceptional mind for the game to a semi-depleted Golden Knights pipeline – in
fact, there's a good chance he himself breaks out of the pipeline, as well. A major obstacle for Glass could be
finding a way to drive his own offense in an unfamiliar setting. His best will be to take advantage of a sheltered
role wherein Paul Stastny and William Karlsson can be left to handle the stronger opponents.
Carl Grundstrom, LW, Kings
We received a glimpse of what to expect from Grundstrom in a Kings uniform at the tail end of last year, and all
signs point to a successful future. The only question is, how successful? The immediate success Grundstrom has
will depend entirely on how he is deployed by new coach Todd McLellan. Currently, Grundstrom ranks quite high
on the teams‟ shallow LW depth chart, which is as good as of a start as you could hope for.
Aleksi Heponiemi, C, Panthers
The Finnish playmaker tested his game at the pro level last year, competing with Karpat in his home country
alongside Kings‟ prospect, Rasmus Kupari. The Panthers 40th overall selection in 2017 made a strong impression
for most of the year but faltered when it came to the postseason. After signing his ELC, Heponiemi will all but
surely get an opportunity to start the year in the Panthers lineup. However, early performance will dictate whether
or not he stays. If the organization envisions a future for Hepo at center, a year in Springfield will be more likely.
Jack Hughes, C, Devils
One of the easiest players to bet on for the ROY, despite the fact that some have ridiculed the middle Hughes
sibling for lack of NHL readiness. There is zero chance that the Devils don‟t give their first-overall gem every
opportunity to emjoy immediate success in Jersey, overriding the fact that his physical maturity might not be at
the same level as other rookies. The smooth-skating, soft-handed 18-year-old has the highest ceiling of any
potential rookie this year, but his immediate production will strongly depend on his new linemates.
Quinn Hughes, D, Canucks
The eldest of the Hughes brothers made a brief, albeit, impressive NHL debut after concluding his second and final
year at the University of Michigan last spring. In that debut, the 19-year-old defender was not shy about showing
off his impressive toolbox and offering onlookers a glimpse of what to expect during his upcoming rookie
campaign. The Canucks have fortified their forward corps this offseason, which should provide a system for
Hughes to run with his own offense.
Kappo Kakko, F, Rangers
The ultra-dynamic Finn, selected second overall by the Rangers will seek to find himself the most opportune roster
spot in the Blueshirts lineup, alongside Mika Zibenejad. Despite his electric style of play in the offensive zone,
Kakko will lack the element of surprise entering his rookie season. The 18-year-old has been touted as the most
NHL-ready, top-tier forward to enter the league, directly from an NHL Draft, since Auston Matthews. His
Datsyukian highlights on the international stage over the last year have been a trest to watch.
Vitali Kravtsov, RW, Rangers
The improved Blueshirts have a plethora of young names that will see NHL ice during the upcoming campaign,
including the likes of the 6-4 Kravtsov. For starters, they‟ll look to maximize their young development through the
sheer flexibility of their roster. Their development strategy, which has been successful with other foreign
prospects, should help Kravtsov in assimilating to the change in pace and open the door to early offensive success.
Jordan Kyrou, RW, Blues
The defending Stanley Cup champions seem to have found a rotation on their front end that is a recipe for
success, a lineup that Kyrou was for the most part left out of. That being said, the 21-year-old winger has paid his
dues in the AHL, where he proved that he can handle a bigger challenge. Zach Sanford, Sammy Blais and Ivan
Barbashev are all forwards who could be overthrown by the surging rookie.
Cale Makar, D, Avalanche
Last year‟s Hobey Baker winner made such a stunning impression on the Avalanche during his postseason debut
that they made a splash this offseason by dealing veteran d-man Tyson Barrie to Toronto. The move marks a
changing of the guard and a testament to their faith in the young Makar. His mesmerizing edgework and innate
offensive instincts make him an excellent candidate to challenge for the Calder Trophy.
Elvis Merzlikins, G, Blue Jackets
The departure of Sergei Bobrovsky has opened Pandora‟s Box in Columbus‟ crease. The heir apparent is the
Jacket‟s backup from the last several seasons, Joonas Korpisalo, but Merzlikins recently signed his ELC and will
also have an opportunity to steal the crease. In the case of Jordan Binnington, we‟ve seen what difference a hot
goaltender can make. Binnington‟s 2018-19 Calder bid not beginning until last January was the biggest factor in
him not earning more votes. If Merzlikins can prove himself early, he‟d be an excellent candidate.
Martin Necas, C, Hurricanes
It‟s difficult to fathom a world where the young Calder Cup champion doesn‟t play a role in the Hurricanes‟ follow-
up to their first playoff berth in years. Necas‟ physical and mental development made enormous strides in his first
full North American slate, in addition to what already seemed to be an impactful package. The way that the team
chooses to deploy the 20-year-old forward could swing his immediate impact one way or the other. Yet, as an
isolated individual, Necas should be looking forward to a successful NHL rookie campaign.
Ryan Poehling, C, Canadiens
Two years at St. Cloud State University was all that the Canadiens needed to see from their 25th-overall selection
in 2017 before inking him to a contract last spring. Poehling came onto the NHL scene with a bang, burying a hat
trick in his lone contest as a Hab. The sample size, however, is miniscule. The story told by Poehling‟s time at the
collegiate level is that his scoring touch is far from elite. Rather, he‟s more suited for starting his career as a depth
pivot, where he‟ll rely on displaying exceptional two-way aptitude.
Nikolay Prokhorkin, LW, Kings
Until a relatively recent surge of offensive success with SKA St. Petersburg, the Kings‟ 2012 fourth-round draft
pick had flown seriously under the radar. Of the group of first-time North American players to have signed this
offseason, Prokhorkin‟s maturity seems to have provided him with a leg up on the competition. His skill set is such
that a potential beast could be looming, and with a new coach (Todd Mclellan) in town, the opportunity to play a
significant role is legit.
Rasmus Sandin, D, Maple Leafs
The Leafs‟ salary cap crunch has them sitting a little shallow on the blue line heading into 2019-20. Their 2018
first-round draft-pick, which could be their last for a relatively long amount of time, could be one of the answers to
the constantly nagging issue. Sandin enjoyed an outstanding offensive rookie campaign with the AHL Marlies last
year and will look to earn regular minutes with the Leafs in the fall. His immediate NHL certainty is lower than
most other players on this list but given the opportunity, it‟s reasonable to think he could impress.
Eeli Tolvanen, RW, Predators
Despite being loaded with one of the most intimidating center corps in the NHL, the Predators forward group‟s
scoring touch leaves something to be desired. Renowned 20-year-old sniper Tolvanen has remained in
development status since his infamous rookie campaign with Jokerit in the KHL. The trouble for Tolvanen will be in
beating out a more experienced forward like Miikka Salomaki for a favorable spot in the lineup. A hot start will be
critical in the Finn‟s bid for the Calder Trophy – a shot on the power play would certainly help, too.
Filip Zadina, RW, Red Wings
An offensive dynamo at the Canadian major junior level, Zadina failed to progress in his draft+1 campaign at a
pace that he was widely expected to. Nonetheless, the Wings‟ depth chart has opened a window to the 2018 sixth-
overall draft pick, wherein he could fall into a more favorable role than other rookies around the league. Make no
mistake, though, the Czech forward will need to muster every bit of the offensive and defensive ability he is
capable of in Traverse City in order to stake his claim to an NHL job.
Brayden Olafson pens the ‘The Journey’ every Saturday on DobberHockey.com

THE ONE-WAY, TWO-WAY DEALS
By Alexander MacLean
Every year during the frenetic madness of Free Agency, one of the most overlooked details of contracts signed is
the one- or two-way status. Players who are able to earn, or negotiate a one-way contract are much more likely to
get at least a second look, or a prolonged opportunity to prove themselves at the NHL level.
Sometimes, that‟s all they need. Breakouts from players such as Yanni Gourde and Tyler Bertuzzi have been
unearthed in this section over the past two years. Let‟s see who we find this time around. Let‟s review those
whose values could be affected or overlooked based on their contract status. Note, all contract information is
courtesy of CapFriendly.
(in alphabetical order per section)
Teddy Blueger, LW, Penguins
The versatile forward showed well at the NHL and AHL levels last season and has a shot to earn a spot this fall.
That being said, Pittsburgh has a lot of options at forward and the competition will be tough. At worst, he‟ll be an
injury call-up, but the one-way contract shows the brass believes he can make an impact.
Daniel Carr, LW, Predators
After finishing third in AHL regular-season scoring, Carr landed a one-way deal with a deep Predators team. This
may not be the best landing spot for him to end up producing in the NHL right away. However, he should be one
of the first call-ups when injuries hit.
Haydn Fleury, D, Hurricanes
The strong-skating defender got his first deal past his entry level contract, but he still has a lot to prove. Since it‟s
a one-way deal, and he‟s a left-handed shot with prior experience, he looks like a shoe-in for a bottom pairing role
on the Canes blue line this year. That will give him some real value in deeper multicategory cap leagues.
Jon Gillies, G, Flames
After playing through his two-way deal last season, Gillies‟ one-way portion of his contract kicks into gear this
year. The 25-year-old has his work cut out for him, though, as David Rittich and Cam Talbot are currently ahead
of him. That being said, Rittich had his inconsistencies last year and the organization owes no loyalty to Talbot.
Moreover, both dealt with injuries in the prior campaign. There is an opportunity here for Gillies to seize.
Jani Hakanpaa, D, Ducks
The Ducks only have five defensemen signed to one-way contracts for the upcoming season and one of those is
journeyman Korbinian Holzer. Hence, there‟s room for Hakanpaa to step straight into some meaningful minutes,
possibly on the second pairing. Was known for playing a controlled but physical style over in Finland, which should
translate well to the NHL. He receives a value-boost in leagues counting hits, blocks, and penalty minutes.
Jayce Hawryluk, RW, Panthers
After being called up midseason, Hawryluk played in all but three games in the final two months for the Panthers,
performing well in a depth role. The promising, gritty 23-year-old signed a two-way deal in the offseason and
between that and the Panthers adding Brett Connolly, a roster spot is not a certainty.
Tim Heed, D, Sharks
With Heed having signed a one-way contract, and incumbent Justin Braun traded to Philadelphia, the third pairing
spot on the right side in San Jose may be Heed‟s to lose. The 28-year-old German has played at a 30-point pace in
66 games over the past two years. He should be able to match that in a full 2019-20 campaign.

Tomas Jurco, LW, Oilers
Jurco has endured some ups and downs the last few years but enjoyed a successful 2018-19 campaign in the AHL.
As a bonus, he even put up 18 points in 18 playoff games with Charlotte (tied for second-most). Jurco turned that
success into a one-way contract with the Oilers, who still have yet to find a winger that clicks with Connor
McDavid. He will get a chance there but at minimum should see time in the bottom-six.
Elvis Merzlikins, G, Blue Jackets
The athletic Merzlikins had his entry-level eligibility burned last year and is set to be one of two goalies (Joonas
Korpisalo being the other) fighting for the majority of the starts in the Jackets‟ crease. Now 25, he has put up
outstanding numbers outside of the NHL in the last few years and could immediately step in as a top-25 goalie.
Joel Persson, D, Oilers
Edmonton burned Persson‟s entry-level eligibility last year and he‟s now signed to a one-way, $1,000,000 contract
for this season. The smooth-skating, offensively-inclined rearguard could beat out younger defensemen vying for a
full-time spot in Edmonton. His biggest competition is going to come from fellow right-hander, Matt Benning. In
other words, the door is wide open for Persson as long as Evan Bouchard isn‟t kept past his nine-game trial.
Brandon Pirri, LW, Golden Knights
The Golden Knights called up Pirri last winter due to injury problems and all he did was score goals. He landed a
two-year contract and aims to fill in a depth slot on the wings again once this season with some possible second-
unit power-play time. Pirri won‟t score 11 goals in his first 10 games again but a 40-point pace is certainly doable.
Samuel Montembeault, G, Panthers
The Panthers surprising signed Montembeault to a one-way contract even though it appears that they are going
with him as their backup netminder. He performed admirably when called upon last season and Florida seems
intent on going with him and Sergei Bobrovsky in the year ahead. The two-way contract gives the team flexibility,
putting the pressure on Montembeault to have a strong camp – or they may go and sign someone else.
Jordan Schmaltz, D, Maple Leafs
Fantasy hockey general mangers have been waiting forever for Schmaltz to arrive and he finally has a one-way
contract for the upcoming year. In the 20 games he saw last season, he put up two assists, but has shown an
ability to rack up some points at the lower levels.
Anthony Stolarz, G, Ducks
Stolarz is currently the third, or fourth, goalie on the Ducks‟ depth chart, depending on where you see Kevin
Boyle. However, Stolarz has the benefit of a one-way contract and should be the first one promoted if and/or when
one or both of Ryan Miller and John Gibson run into injury problems.
Remaining RFAs to Watch

Adam Erne, LW, Lightning
A grinder that can score, Erne and Brayden Point were the only Lightning forwards left without a contract at press
time, and between the two, there was enough cap space for Point to get his $10 Million, leaving $1 Million left for
Erne. is stuck behind three solid lines of scoring depth in Tampa Bay. However, he should still be able to match his
20 points from last season in adepth role once more.
Rocco Grimaldi, RW, Predators
The small-sized energy skater was the highest-scoring Predator in the NHL playoffs last spring, and he did so while
playing under 13 minutes per game. In the regular season, he managed a meager 13 points in 53 games, though.
Grinaldi should at the least be guaranteed a depth role to start the upcoming year. From there, he becomes a
scorer with an ability to produce despite limited ice time – a valuable commodity in cap leagues.

A.J. Greer, RW, Avalanche
Like his teammate Vladislav Kamenev, Greer enjoyed a couple of brief cups of coffee with the team in 2018-19,
and will be in the running for a depth forward spot right out of the gate this time out. Greer‟s advantage lies in is
his size and grit, which will be well-suited for the fourth-line role that he‟ll be competing for. In leagues counting
hits and penalty minutes, Greer is worth a stash-away in case he surprises this season.
Julius Honka, D, Stars
His name has appeared on the trade block in recent weeks, and being on a one-way contract, Dallas has incentive
to move him somewhere that will appreciate him if they don‟t see a fit. Keep an eye on Honka‟s situation, as the
contract and team situations could really alter his value. There isn‟t much of anywhere to go but up.
Josh Ho-Sang, RW / Michael Dal Colle, LW, NY Islanders
Like their New York counterparts, the Islanders have a lot up in the air with regard to their depth forward group.
Once highly touted, Ho-Sang and Dal Colle are using up some of their last rope, and the comparative contracts will
show which one has the better chance of sticking for the full season. I would expect it to be only one of them, and
the one that does stick could sneak onto the second power-play unit and provide some depth value.
Vladislav Kamenev, LW, Avalanche
One of the key pieces of a return that saw the exodus of Matt Duchene from Colorado, Kamenev has yet to crack
the lineup on a full-time basis. Between dealing with little ice time, and a variety of injuries, we have yet to see his
full potential. However, after the Avalanche brought in some added scoring depth in the offseason, Kamenev will
likely only start as a 13th forward.
Brendan Lemieux, LW, New York Rangers
The Rangers have shown the rest of the league that a rebuild doesn‟t have to mean five years in the basement.
However, it has left the squad with a stack of players to fill out the bottom-six forward slots. One of these options
is Lemieux, who saw regular games with the Blueshirts last year. He has a spot to lose and his contract should
reflect that. When in the lineup, Lemieux can provide a rare blend of peripheral stats.
Andrew Mangiapane, LW, Flames
With Matthew Tkachuk still an unsigned RFA at press time, Mangiapane currently acts as the forgotten man.
Tkachuk will eat up the majority of the remaining cap space, which will leave very little for Mangiapane coming off
his ELC. As a result, his contract should be a bargain for fantasy owners, as we can expect him to thrive in a depth
role for the Flames this coming season.
Jimmy Schuldt, D, Golden Knights
One of the higher-profile college free agents from the past year. With the Golden Knights swimming atop the cap‟s
ceiling and needing cheap players, there‟s a spot to be won in the opening night lineup. If Schuldt signs a one-
year deal, look for him to be that sixth defenseman.
Other One-Way/Two-Way Notes

Sammy Blais (Blues) is on a one-way contract, though we already figured he would be a roster mainstay after his
postseason… Collin Delia (Blackhawks) is on a three-year, one-way contract. But he is still exempt from waivers
and his $1 million cap hit can be almost completely buried in the minors while the team sorts out Corey Crawford‟s
future.
Alexander MacLean pens ‘Capped’ every Thursday on DobberHockey.com

OUTLIERS
By Rick Roos
In fantasy hockey, one can usually count on certain occurrences resulting in certain outcomes, like more shots
leading to more goals and more time on ice leading to higher scoring. But every season there are exceptions. For
example, players for whom numbers like these do not correlate; and knowing who these outlying players are can
help not only to avoid reaching on draft day but also to snag some bargains.
With those things in mind, here are examples of outlier players/circumstances from the 2018-19 season, along
with whether (and, if so, to what extent) to adjust draft rankings based on their outlying situations.
Ice time and scoring – forwards
In 2018-19, a total of 121 forwards scored 45+ points, but all but four did so while averaging 15:00+ of ice time
per game: Brett Connolly (13:20), Kevin Labanc (14:01), Jakub Vrana (14:02), and J.T. Miller (14:40).
Labanc tallied 20 PPPts despite taking the ice for less than 50% of San Jose‟s total PP time, had more secondary
assists than primary, and fired only 130 SOG, making him a risky bet for 2019-20. Connolly had a mere two PPPts
and failed to average two SOG per game, and might not be able to best those numbers (let alone up his scoring)
on a loaded Panthers team unless he lands on a scoring line and sees regular PP shifts. Miller‟s was on PP1 but
also mired in the bottom six for Tampa, leading to 20 of his 47 points coming on the PP; but he should see a
vastly expanded – and more productive - role on a far less deep Vancouver squad. Vrana had four PPPts and
averaged a hair under two SOG per game, plus has an inside track on a top six spot on a still potent Caps squad,
and thus is likely to see his scoring rise.
On the flip side, a total of 158 forwards played 70+ games while posting under 50 points. Of them, only four
averaged 18:00+ per contest: Travis Zajac (19:16), Derek Stepan (19:13), Clayton Keller (18:14), and Jeff Carter
(18:09).
It is unlikely a coincidence that three of the four were on teams in the bottom five for goals scored in 2018-19,
while the other (Zajac) has scored 42-46 points in three of his past four seasons, making his output from 2018-19
not actually outlying. Of the three on poor teams, Keller seems like the best bet to see his scoring markedly
improve, as he fired 200 SOG and managed 19 PPPts on a team that was subpar on the man advantage. Keller
also is one of four players who, as a teen rookie since 2000-01, posted 65+ points, with the others being Sidney
Crosby, Patrick Kane, and Auston Matthews, which is fine company and bodes well for Keller to rebound (and
soon).
Carter saw his SOG total crater and might not be the same player he once was, whether due to the cumulative
effect of injuries or age (he turns 35 in January). As for Stepan, his poor output came after a five-year cumulative
scoring rate of 59 points per season and likely was tied to very bad luck on the power play, where he tallied only
three PPPts after posting 14-18 in four of his previous five campaigns. Plus, at only 28, Stepan seems a bit young
to be washed up and thus should bounce back.
Ice time and scoring – defensemen
This past season, 41 rearguards tallied 35+ points, yet only four averaged under 20:00 per game: Vince Dunn
(17:32), Travis Sanheim (19:34), Shayne Gostisbehere (19:40), Dougie Hamilton (19:40).
Hamilton still had 259 SOG (third among d-men) but as occurred while a Flame, subpar deployment (especially on
the power play) cuts against him being a fantasy force. So, while he is capable of more in terms of scoring output,
it is unlikely he will get a chance to fulfill his potential unless he gets traded yet again. Ghost‟s points and SOG
crated but defensemen rarely score 65 points then vanish. Yet, there is also the fact that in 11 years that Alain
Vigneault coached in Vancouver and Montreal, no defenseman scored more than 50 points. So, assuming Ghost is
not traded as has been rumored, expecting a full rebound from him might be asking too much. Dunn and – again,
assuming Ghost isn‟t traded – Sanheim are each „third bananas‟ such that they probably will not be capable of
much more than we saw from them in 2018-19.

Looking at the other end of the spectrum, of 68 defensemen who played 70+ games but failed to score 30 points,
six averaged over 22:00 per game: Ivan Provorov (25:07), Hampus Lindholm (24:00), Colton Parayko (22:47),
Cody Ceci (22:34), Mike Matheson (22:19), and Josh Manson (22:18).
Of these, Manson is unlikely to be more than 25-30-point rearguard due to his niche/usage, and Ceci might see at
best a minor bump playing for the high-tempo Leafs. Provorov, Matheson and Lindholm each have talent but for
now are too far down the PP depth chart – not to mention too valuable at „real‟ hockey – to expect their numbers
to climb by much in the near term. Parayko‟s strong 2019 postseason was somewhat of a tease, as his offensive
zone starting percentage went down and Vince Dunn is too one-dimensional to play the tough minutes that will go
to Parayko, making even 40 points for Parayko a longshot.
SOG and Goal / PPG scoring
As recently as 2013-14, no 30+ goal scorers had under 200 SOG. Lately, however, there has been a trend toward
selective shooting snipers, as four forwards potted 30+ goals in each of 2014-15 and 2015-16 despite fewer than
200 SOG, five did so in 2017-18, and for 2018-19 there were eight.
As such, it can no longer automatically be considered an outlying season if a forward scores 30+ goals despite
firing fewer than 200 SOG. Moreover, given this trend, players such as Artemi Panarin (28 goals in 79 games on
191 SOG) and Elias Lindholm (27 goals in 81 games on 182 SOG) plus, even more so, Jake Debrusk (27 goals in
68 games on 156 SOG), Elias Pettersson (28 goals in 71 games on 144 SOG), and T.J. Oshie (25 goals in 69
games on 143 SOG), could enter 30+ goal territory for 2019-20 even if they do not manage to surpass the 200
SOG threshold.
Despite this, there is still the converse – forwards who pepper the net but do not have heaps of goals to show for
it. In 2018-19, four forwards took 250+ SOG but failed to register over 30 goals: Jack Eichel (28 goals, 303 SOG),
Jonathan Marchessault (25 goals, 278 SOG), Evander Kane (30 goals, 268 SOG), and Timo Meier (30 goals, 250
SOG).
Of the four, Meier saw his goal and SOG totals rise from his sophomore campaign, so most likely both will continue
to trend upward, especially with 2019-20 being his „magical fourth year.‟ On the other hand, this was Kane‟s fifth
campaign of 250+ SOG without over 30 goals, and he would have done so even more often had he not been a
Band-Aid Boy; so he is a good bet to land on this list again for 2019-20. Likewise, it was the second straight Vegas
campaign that Marchessault met both criteria, so odds are it will be more of the same for him as well in 2019-20.
As for Eichel, like Meier, his SOG and goals rose from 2017-18, albeit the former more than the latter, plus his
average shot distance dropped; so, Eichel is also unlikely to find himself on this list again come 2019-20.
Looking at the 31 skaters who had double digit power-play goals in 2018-19, all but six had at least 50 SOG while
on the power play: Aleksander Barkov (13 PPGs, 38 PP SOG), Joe Pavelski (12 PPG, 46 PP POG), Sidney Crosby
(12 PPG, 45 PP SOG), Tomas Hertl (11 PPG, 36 PP SOG), Elias Pettersson (10 PPPG, 39 PP SOG), and Brad
Marchand (10 PPG, 44 PP SOG). No one on this list stands out as a likely candidate for regression, other than
perhaps Pavelski, but in his case it might be that he is morphing into someone who is now simply more selective
about his shots, including on the PP.
Meanwhile, only 11 forwards had 70+ SOG while on the man advantage, with all but one having double digit
power-play goals (Tyler Seguin – nine PPG, 85 PP SOG). As for forwards who had 60+ PP SOG but fewer than nine
PPGs, there was Brock Boeser (six PPG, 68 PP SOG), Jack Eichel (eight PPG, 68 PP SOG), Cam Atkinson (eight
PPG, 67 PP SOG), and Evgeni Kuznetsov (eight PPG, 64 PP SOG). The expectation would be for all these players –
but especially Seguin – to get more PPGs if they fire a similar number of PP SOG in 2019-20.
Scoring and number of games with at least a point – forwards
The NHL has players who run very hot and cold, as well as others who are consistent scorers yet rarely explode for
multi-point games. In terms of feast or famine players in 2018-19, three tallied 80+ points where those points
came in fewer than 50 games (82 points in only 47 games for Mark Scheifele; 82 points in 49 games for Sean
Monahan; and 80 points in 49 games for Tyler Seguin).
While on the one hand it is likely for these players to have fewer zero-point games in 2019-20, by the same token
they might not have as many games where they score in droves. So, them being on this list does not in and of
itself mean they are necessarily likely to produce more or less in 2019-20.
In contrast, there were also the „steady eddies,‟ which refer to those who produced at least 65 points during the
2018-19 campaign but also had fewer than 20 games without a point. So, in other words, more often than not if

they scored a point in a game, it was exactly one point. For 2018-19, there were four players who met these
criteria, namely Mike Hoffman (70 points in 53 games), Evgeni Dadonov (70 points in 51 games), Timo Meier (66
points in 48 games), and Jakub Voracek (66 points in 47 games).
Provided that they‟re deployed similarly, those players are more likely to see organic scoring gains in 2019-20. If
we look at others who scored points in an equal number of games in 2018-19, they averaged more points than
any of those four, namely the other three players who had points in 53 games averaged 78 points (eight more
than Hoffman‟s 70), the other six who scored in 51 games averaged 84 points (14 more than Dadonov‟s 70), the
other four who scored in 48 games averaged 70 points (four more than Meier‟s 66), and the other four who scored
in 47 games also averaged 70 points (four more than Voracek‟s 66).
Be sure to keep these players in mind, particularly if you are in a H2H league. That is because in H2H leagues,
weekly totals – which are definitely influenced by hot and cold streaks – are everything, as opposed to roto
leagues, in which normally only the end of season totals matter and thus when – and in how many games – a
player gets his points becomes less relevant.
Scoring and number of games with at least a point – defensemen
Defensemen are far less likely than forwards to have multi-point games. Nevertheless, some did score in bunches.
Cases in point were, among defensemen who scored under 60 points, four who had points in at least 15 fewer
games than their total points: Tyson Barrie (59 points in 42 games), Kris Letang (56 points in 40 games), Roman
Josi (56 points in 41 games), and Erik Karlsson (45 points in 29 games).
Of these names, the most interesting is Karlsson, who, based on this information and had he not been hurt, likely
would have been in line for his usual elite output. Barrie, as a Maple Leaf, likely will have less optimal deployment,
which, in turn, should lead to fewer multi-point games and be among factors that could inhibit his production.
On the other end of the spectrum, five defensemen scored 35+ points despite no more than a handful of multi-
point games: Drew Doughty (45 points in 40 games), Damon Severson (39 points in 34 games), Shea Theodore
(37 points in 32 games), Aaron Ekblad (37 points in 33 games), Vince Dunn (35 points in 30 games), and Justin
Faulk (35 points in 30 games).
Based on these names and their track records, expect most to score no more (or perhaps even less) in 2019-20
than they did in 2018-19. The exception is Doughty, who likely was victimized by his team doing poorly more so
than him failing to deliver. So, if the Kings rebound even to some extent, he could see a significant uptick in
scoring.
Crossbars and posts
Much was made of Patrik Laine‟s struggles in 2018-19. However, lost amid all the criticism and second-guessing
was the fact that he hit 14 posts and one crossbar, which amounted to half his entire goal total of 30. Yes, Laine
fires lots of shots in general, so he is bound to hit his fair share of posts and crossbars, but 15 is a high
number/percentage, especially in relation to his goal total, suggesting he will bounce back in the normal course.
Other forwards who hit double digits in posts plus crossbars but had fewer than 35 goals included Tyler Seguin (33
goals; six crossbars and nine posts), Brandon Saad (23 goals; six crossbars and seven posts), Jason Zucker (21
goals; four crossbars and seven posts), Jack Eichel (28 goals; three crossbars and seven posts), and Nazem Kadri
(16 goals; four crossbars and six posts).
Each of these five also should expect more goals for 2019-20 in the normal course if firing a similar number of
SOG. Also, the three (Saad, Zucker, and the now traded Kadri) who had markedly down years in 2018-19 could
have been helped at least somewhat had they not experienced outlying bad luck to this extent in this area.
On the other side of the coin were forwards who potted 35+ goals in 2018-19 but had five or fewer combined
crossbars and posts, namely Joe Pavelski (38 goals; one crossbar and one post), Aleksander Barkov (35 goals;
zero crossbars and two posts), Sidney Crosby (35 goals; zero crossbars and three posts), Cam Atkinson and
Nathan MacKinnon (both with 41 goals; zero crossbars and four posts), Jake Guentzel (40 goals; one crossbar and
three posts), Brayden Point (41 goals; two crossbars and three posts), Alex Debrincat (41 goals; one crossbar and
four posts), Tomas Hertl (35 goals; one crossbar and four posts), and Jonathan Toews (35 goals; zero crossbars
and five posts).
These players – particularly those like Point, Pavelski and Hertl, who had fewer than 200 SOG during 2018-19 –
seemingly lucked into several more goals than they likely deserved based on how few posts and/or crossbars they
hit. As such, they could see their goal totals shrink for 2019-20 if, as stands to reason, their crossbar and post
good luck pendulum swings in the other direction.

This situation is not limited to forwards, too, as quite a few defensemen had a goal total no more than double their
combined number of crossbars and posts they hit. Here are just the four rearguards who met these criteria and
had 10 or more goals in 2018-19: Jeff Petry (13 goals, nine posts), Zach Werenski (11 goals, eight posts), Tyson
Barrie (14 goals, seven posts), and Victor Hedman (12 goals, one crossbar and five posts). Expect higher goals
totals from each if they fire the same number of shots in 2019-20. For Barrie, this could help balance out points he
might lose in coming to Toronto.
As for defensemen who were not victimized by posts/crossbars, the following are those with a 2018-19 goal total
that was at least 10 but who also had at least four times as many goals as combined crossbars and posts: Kris
Letang (16 goals; one post), Justin Faulk (11 goals; one post), Darnell Nurse (10 goals; one post), John Carlson
(13 goals; one crossbar and one post), Aaron Ekblad and Alex Pietrangelo (both with 13 goals and two posts),
Matt Dumba (12 goals; two posts), Esa Lindell (11 goals; two posts), Alexander Edler (10 goals; one crossbar and
one post), Morgan Rielly (20 goals; one crossbar and two posts), Erik Gustafsson (17 goals; two crossbars and
one post), Thomas Chabot and Jared Spurgeon (both with 14 goals and three posts), Vince Dunn (12 goals; one
crossbar and two posts), Shea Weber (14 goals; two crossbars and one post), and Brent Burns (16 goals; two
crossbars and two posts). In their cases, the expectation is that the iron will be unkinder to them in 2019-20, and
in turn should hurt their goal total if they fire a similar number of shots on goal.
Goal types
On nhl.com, stats are tracked for seven categories of goals – backhand, deflection, slap shot, snap shot, tip in,
wrap around, and wrist shot. As expected, most of the leaders in each category are players who tended to score a
lot of goals, with the exception of deflection and wrap around goals, which are more „wild card‟ categories since in
both cases the 2018-19 leaders had fewer than a handful. But there are some interesting outliers in most of the
other five categories.
For backhand goals, where nine of the top 13 had 30+ goals overall in 2018-19, Andrei Svechnikov scored five of
his twenty goals in this manner, making him a good bet to see his goal total rise. On the flip side, five of the NHL‟s
13 players who scored 40+ goals in 2018-19 (Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, Alex DeBrincat, Jake Guentzel, and
Nathan MacKinnon) had three or fewer backhand goals. However, these are players who are either clearly up and
coming or who have had a proven track record, such that their lack of backhand goals does not present a concern
about a shrinking goal total for 2019-20.
Among the slap shot leaders for 2018-19, only four had double digits and their goal total ranged from 36 to 51.
After them, the drop off was fairly steep, with just nine players having at least five. Eight of the 28 goals scored by
Elias Pettersson were slap shots, while for Evgeni Malkin it was six of his 21. Both would seem like good
candidates to see their goal total/rate rise in the normal course for 2019-20. Also, though, 11 of 23 players who
had 35+ goals in 2018-19 had either zero or one of those goals in the form of slap shots. So, it‟s clear that scoring
by means of slap shot is not a prerequisite for sniper status.
Other than Leon Draisaitl and David Pastrnak (who both had 15), top snap shot totals for 2018-19 were clustered,
with 41 other skaters having between six and 10. And among the 24 who potted at least 35 goals in 2018-19, all
but six of them had five or more goals via snap shot, with the six being Jonathan Toews (one), Johnny Gaudreau
(two), Nikita Kucherov (two), Connor McDavid (three), Joe Pavelski (four), and Jeff Skinner (four). And although
Kucherov, McDavid and Gaudreau are unlikely to regress, the other names on this list include some for whom 35+
goals might not be as certain for 2019-20. Conversely, nearly half the goals scored by Teuvo Teravainen (10 of
21) were snap shots, as were a third of Phil Kessel‟s 27 markers and seven of Nino Niedereiter‟s 23; so each of
them might be in line to organically score more goals during 2019-20. But they pale in comparison to Pavel Zacha,
who managed eight snap shot goals out of only 13 in total, suggesting he might be in line for a big jump in goal
scoring.
Tip-in goal leaders for 2018-19 were clustered together, with none having more than nine but 27 having at least
five. Predictably, most of the leaders were „mule‟ players who camp out in front of the net. This type of goal seems
to be like backhanders in that the best goal scorers had few, if any. In fact, of the 24 players with 35+ goals, all
but seven of them had three or fewer scored via tip-in.
Lastly, there are wrist shots, which by far comprise the highest percentage of goals for forwards, whether those
forwards are snipers or not. Even still, there is some useful outlying data that can be discerned. Those with 30+
goals but fewer than 15 coming by way of wrist shots for 2018-19 were Joe Pavelski (14 of 38 goals), David
Pastrnak (12 of 38), Mike Hoffman (10 of 36), Aleksander Barkov (14 of 35), Andreas Athanasiou (13 of 30),
Jonathan Huberdeau (13 of 30), Mika Zibanejad (13 of 30), Sebastian Aho (12 of 30), Patrick Laine (14 of 30),
and Timo Meier (13 of 30).

What is there to make of this data? The group seems to consist of younger up and coming players, for whom the
low ratio is likely not of concern, but also older players like Hoffman and, in particular, Pavelski, where this low of
a percentage might forecast a smaller goal total come 2019-20.
Shifting focus to those for whom the majority of their goals came via wrist shots, there were a number of players
in 2018-19 that scored 25+ goals and for whom 10 or fewer of those goals were not via wrist shots, including
Vladimir Tarasenko (33 goals, 28 via wrist shots), Jonathan Toews (35 goals, 26 via wrist shot), Evander Kane (30
goals, 21 via wrist shot), Elias Lindholm (27 goal, 20 via wrist shot), Jack Eichel (28 goals, 20 via wrist shot),
Brock Boeser (26 goals, 19 via wrist shot), Jonathan Marchessault (25 goals, 19 via wrist shot), Artemi Panarin,
Filip Forsberg and Max Domi (each with 28 goals, 18 via wrist shot), Ryan Dzingel (26 goals, 17 via wrist shot),
Tomas Tatar (25 goals, 17 via wrist shot), Logan Couture (27 goals, 17 via wrist shot), Mitch Marner (26 goals, 17
via wrist shot), Brock Nelson (25 goals, 16 via wrist shot), Carl Soderberg (23 goals, 16 via wrist shot), Zach
Hyman (21 goals, 15 via wrist shot), and Jonathan Drouin (18 goals, 15 via wrist shot).
Although the list includes a number of very solid players, several (notably Dzingel, Soderberg, Hyman, and
Nelson) are not elite, where the expectation for them is they will not morph into top goal scorers due – at least in
part – to their inability to get markers via wrist shots. So, keep that in mind when drafting them, especially in
goal-heavy leagues.
Teams and ice time
For 2018-19, only four teams had no forward receive 19:00+ per game of ice time, nor any forward average
3:00+ of man-advantage time per game – the Canadiens, Islanders, Golden Knights, and Wild. The end result was
scoring leaders for each team that had, respectively, 72, 62, 61, and 59 points, with only the lowly Coyotes, plus
the injury-plagued Devils, having a leading scorer who tallied less than that of all four of these teams.
Be wary if drafting stars from Montreal, New York, Minnesota and Vegas, as no matter how good they are they‟ll
likely face an uphill climb to post even 65 points with ice time spread out so evenly. Then again, third-line players
on these teams might have sneaky value, as they‟re likely to get more ice time than bottom six players on squads
which top-load ice time for their top-six.
Ten (10) teams had one or more defenseman take the ice for at least two-thirds of the team‟s available PP time
(Washington, Boston, Pittsburgh, Dallas, San Jose, Philly, Tampa Bay, Florida, Arizona, Colorado). It should be
more of the same, except perhaps in Florida, with Joel Quenneville now coach, Philly, where Alain Vigneault is
notorious for not leaning heavily on his stars, and Colorado, which might spread PP time among its several up-
and-coming rearguards. Does that mean teams have abandoned the concept of defensemen splitting PP time? Not
entirely, as in addition to the Habs, Islanders, and Knights, other teams did not lean on one rearguard for the man
advantage, with the Ducks, Sabres, Blues, Predators, Red Wings, Blue Jackets, Rangers, and Devils all having one
receive 50%-60% of available PP time. As the difference between 50-60% and 66%+ is non-nominal, keep these
numbers/teams in mind on draft day.
Some conclusions
Based on this data, it looks like Joe Pavelski – new team notwithstanding – is someone whose stats might be
ready to nosedive.
Also, it is probably not best to count on Jonathan Marchessault seeing his scoring rebound to the level it was in his
first campaign in Las Vegas.
Conversely, Elias Pettersson in particular looks to be primed for quite a good year, and bright future, although that
was not much in doubt.
Drew Doughty should be posed to rebound, provided the Kings are less of a dumpster fire this coming season, as
should Patrik Laine given the number of posts and crossbars he hit versus goals scored.
Tyler Seguin and Jack Eichel also could be two for whom more points are naturally in store.
As for the rest of the outliers, use this data not as a sole basis to rank them but instead for helping decide
between which of two or more players to draft/keep, as it might be a useful tiebreaker when faced with what
otherwise looks like a very close decision.
Rick Roos pens the ‘Roos Lets Loose’ every Wednesday on DobberHockey.com

20 STOCK DROPS
By Michael Clifford
When preparing to sit down at the draft table, knowing who to target is important. What can get overlooked is
knowing who not to target. Drafting a player in, say, the third round coming off a career year, and then enduring
the predictable regression, is a trap that fantasy owners fall into season after season.
Below are some players who should be regarded with caution. Some will be high picks, some won‟t, but they all
have a common theme: there are clear concerns with their expected production based on one or many factors.
Tyson Barrie, D, Maple Leafs
The trade for Barrie certainly helped solve part of Toronto‟s problems on the right side of their defense but this is a
big downgrade for him. Barrie has 55 power on the power play over the last two seasons, top-20 across the NHL
and tied for third among all defensemen. He‟ll now be firmly behind Morgan Rielly on the power-play depth chart
and Toronto often stacks the top PP unit.
Pavel Buchnevich, RW, Rangers
The likely introduction of both Kaapo Kakko and Vitali Kravtsov likely means Buchnevich‟s opportunity for top-line
usage has come to an end and he plays in the middle-six for the Rangers in 2019-20. There are many more
players that will earn power-play ice time, even with the losses of Mats Zuccarello and Kevin Hayes. It seems
unlikely Buchnevich improves on his 15 minutes a game and the likely loss in PPTOI means he‟s waiver fodder.
Will Butcher, D, Devils
For the second year in a row, Butcher led Devils blueliners in PPTOI. Both of those seasons, by the way, were the
first two of his career. However, he lost over a minute per game in PPTOI in the second half last year, while
Damon Severson gained over a minute. On top of that, the team acquired P.K. Subban in the offseason. Butcher is
a talented defenseman but it seems he‟s lost his hold on the one thing that made him valuable in fantasy hockey.
Thomas Chabot, D, Senators
It‟s not really a stock decline because of Chabot, or anything he did last year. It‟s a stock decline because the
2019-20 Senators are going to be horrific in every facet. There are a couple of nice young pieces but beyond
Brady Tkachuk, none of them have proven much at the NHL level. Plus-minus concerns are very real, as well.
Collin Delia, G, Blackhawks
With Corey Crawford entering his final season, and having his concussion issues, it looked like Delia was ready to
take over on a part-time basis at least. Chicago went and signed Robin Lehner to a one-year deal, however, so it
seems like Delia‟s opportunity to take over as starter will take one more year. Watch out for any midseason -
should things go awry.
Thomas Greiss, G, Islanders
The German goalie was really good in 2018-19, but he was similarly good in 2015-16 and followed that up with an
average-ish year. Barry Trotz‟s system, in this writer‟s opinion, is overblown and the signing of Semyon Varlamov
complicates things further. Greiss will probably be a popular pick among those who aren‟t Varlamov believers, but
even if the newest Islander goalie falters, it‟s far from a guarantee Greiss repeats his 2018-19 performance.
Roope Hintz, LW, Stars
When Dallas has broken up the „Big Three‟ at times over the last couple seasons, very few players have been able
to stick in the top-six. Hintz, however, did get some extended time on the top line with Tyler Seguin and the top

PP unit. And most of those minutes came in the second half, seemingly gaining momentum for more minutes in
2019-20. The signings of Joe Pavelski and Corey Perry, at the least, nix his power-play opportunities.
Henri Jokiharju, D, Sabres
In Chicago, there weren‟t many players for Jokiharju to beat out for ice time. It was basically the ghost of Brent
Seabrook and a defensive Connor Murphy. The trade to Buffalo, however, puts him behind a glut of average-to-
good right-handed defensemen. It seems likely it takes a year for Jokiharju to get back to the NHL on a full-time
basis, so while his long-term prospects haven‟t changed, his short-term ones certainly have.
Seth Jones, D, Blue Jackets
Not only does Jones lose Artemi Panarin as an option on the power play, but he lost PPTOI in the second half
relative to Zach Werenski. Not that the Columbus power play is much to write home about, but the loss of a
weapon like Panarin plus the ice time in general has a cooling effect on Jones‟ value. He‟s still a 40-point guy but
returning to previous highs like 2017-18 seems unlikely.
Tyson Jost, C, Avalanche
The 10th overall pick from 2016 has yet to really find his footing in the NHL, having even been sent down to the
AHL back in January. But he had been used as the fourth forward on Colorado‟s power play, a position that is
primed for production. Unfortunately for Jost, Colorado added Nazem Kadri this summer and he‟s the perfect
player for that role on the power play. Their additions probably push Jost to the third line, as well.
Oscar Klefbom, D, Oilers
Among all players who played at least 20 games in both the first and second halves of 2018-19, no one lost more
power-play ice time than Klefbom. Darnell Nurse took over the top PP unit when Klefbom was injured in December
and he never looked back. Moreover, Edmonton‟s power play was 12th in the league in the second half with Nurse
taking over. It certainly seems like Nurse‟s fantasy stock is rising and Klefbom‟s is falling.
Chris Kreider, LW, Rangers
In recent times, Kreider has been the go-to left winger at the top of the depth chart for the Rangers. He‟s the only
Rangers winger remaining to have averaged over 13 minutes a game at 5v5 the last two seasons, and over 2:30
per game in PPTOI. With Artemi Panarin around, Kreider‟s role will be somewhat diminished. Even just playing
away from Mika Zibanejad – if that‟s what they decide to do – will be enough to hurt his production.
Colin Miller, D, Sabres
We finally saw Miller‟s ability to produce when he arrived to Vegas. He played to nearly a 40-point/82-game pace
largely in thanks to getting PPTOI on either of their first or second units, leading to back-to-back seasons of
double-digit PP assists. But he was traded to Buffalo and that top PP unit is now Rasmus Dahlin‟s for the next
decade. Without that PPTOI, it‟s hard to see Miller repeating his Vegas performance.
Nolan Patrick, C, Flyers
The trade and subsequent signing of Kevin Hayes all but assures that Patrick will be the third-line center for the
foreseeable future. He won‟t be playing himself ahead of Sean Couturier and they didn‟t give Hayes $50M because
they think Patrick is ready to be the full-time second-line center. That, in conjunction with a loss in PPTOI down
the stretch last year, should leave fantasy owners very tepid on Patrick for 2019-20.
Jeff Petry, D, Canadiens
Petry‟s production predictably plummeted following Shea Weber‟s return from injury, going from 29 points in his
first 40 games to 17 in his final 44. That decline was also accompanied by a reduction in PPTOI, which was entirely
foreseeable. There‟s no reason to rush and draft Petry for 2019-20 and expecting him to crack 40 points for the
third season in a row unless Weber is injured again.
Neal Pionk, D, Jets
While his tenure with the Rangers was inconsistent at best, there wasn‟t a lot of defensive depth, and with the
lackluster performance from Kevin Shattenkirk, at least Pionk had a chance of cracking the power play. Now that

he‟s in Winnipeg, he‟s guaranteed to be stuck behind Dustin Byfuglien. Maybe he gets a chance should Byfuglien
get injured but this isn‟t a case where a few guys are vying for a spot.
Jordan Staal, C, Hurricanes
No forward lost more PPTOI per game in the second half of the 2018-19 season than Staal – nearly 1:45 per
game. Not that Staal has ever been a big PP producer, but going from a regular on the power play to less than a
minute per game is a huge loss in value. His usage at five-on-five means he‟ll still have value in leagues counting
faceoffs but in leagues without them, it doesn‟t seem like he‟ll have much value in 2019-20.
Alex Steen, LW, Blues
We‟ve probably reached the end of the road for Steen‟s fantasy usefulness. He had 46 points a couple years ago
but that cratered to 27 in 2018-19, and Robert Thomas‟s emergence meant a sharp decline in Steen‟s power-play
minutes. It was just four years ago that Steen had at least 20 PPP – 21 to be exact. Since, he‟s declined every
year to 16, 14, and now five.
Dylan Strome, C, Blackhawks
Following his trade to Chicago, Strome produced an incredible 51 points in 58 games, appearing to make good on
the promise he showed in the AHL and OHL. The problem is those points were supported by sky-high percentages,
whether his own, or his linemates‟. His stock might be rising in the eyes of some but he‟s due for a sharp decline
in 2019-20. Even a 60-point season should be seen as a huge win.
Alex Tuch, RW, Golden Knights
There were trade rumors swirling around Vegas but it looks like the top-six that ended the season last year will
remain into 2019-20. That likely means Tuch spends large swaths of this season on the third line. He also led all
forwards last year in secondary assists per 60 minutes at five-on-five, something we know will regress heavily.
The expectation shouldn‟t be more than 50 points.
Michael Clifford writes Daily Ramblings and is

Assistant Managing Editor at DobberHockey.com

GOALIES TO WATCH
By Ian Gooding
After Jordan Binnington‟s amazing run, fantasy hockey owners will be trying to track down the next goalie to come
out of nowhere to be a difference-maker. That is why many of these names won‟t be the obvious ones that you
would find at the top of any of our rankings. Instead, these are goalies that you either won‟t need a high draft pick
to acquire, or are prospects that could help your team in the event of an injury. Not all of them will be great in
2019-20, but there are signs of potential success from each one.
(In alphabetical order)
Mackenzie Blackwood, Devils
The Devils had enough faith in Cory Schneider not to buy him out, but recent injury history and a long stretch of
play without posting a win should mean that Schneider is not the most stable option out there. Blackwood posted
some decent numbers in his first NHL season (2.61 GAA, .918 SV%) and should have an improved Devils‟ team in
front of him. The Devils still have Schneider under contract for three more years, yet he should already be looking
over his shoulder.
Pavel Francouz, Avalanche
Philipp Grubauer is now officially the Avalanche‟s starter. He posted some great late-season numbers but he has
never had a run as a starter over an entire season (has never reached 40 games in a season). Francouz has a long
history of stellar play in Europe (three consecutive seasons with at least .924 SV%) and appears to be ready to
take over as a backup after being named an AHL All-Star. Francouz, who is two years older than Grubauer, could
earn some wins on an Avs‟ team that might take the next step.
Carter Hart, Flyers
After being called up earlier than expected because of a run of injuries to Flyers‟ goalies, Hart is now ready for a
full season as the starter. He shouldn‟t have to worry about being sent to the minors, as Brian Elliott is his only
real competition for the starter‟s job. It may take some time before he‟s one of the elite goalies at his position, but
he‟ll be heavily sought-after in single-season leagues and you may need to overpay in drafts as a result.
Tristan Jarry, Penguins
After a rough 2017-18 in the AHL (3.05 GAA, .901 SV%), Jarry bounced back in 2018-19 (2.66 GAA, .915 SV%).
We all know Matt Murray‟s injury history, so Jarry could jump in as the starter with even stronger AHL play. He
needs a strong training camp to oust Casey DeSmith as the backup goalie but one way or another, he should see
some games for the NHL Penguins in 2019-20.
Anton Khudobin, Stars
Khudobin is another product of a great system that limits scoring chances, as only the NY Islanders allowed fewer
goals per game than the Stars in 2018-19. Given Ben Bishop‟s injury history and the chances that his workload is
managed, Khudobin should deliver when given the opportunity, as he did in his first season in Dallas (.923 SV%).
He‟s worth stashing on your bench if you have room, especially as a handcuff to Bishop.
Elvis Merzlikins, Blue Jackets
With Sergei Bobrovsky signing in Florida as expected, Merzlikins will battle the inconsistent Joonas Korpisalo for
starts in Columbus. Merzlikins has posted great numbers in the Swiss league, including a .921 save percentage
over each of the two seasons. Korpisalo probably has the upper hand as the starter because of his NHL
experience, but his AHL success hasn‟t translated to the NHL. This has the makings of a volatile goalie situation.

Alex Nedeljkovic, Hurricanes
With Petr Mrazek and James Reimer set as the Hurricanes‟ starting goalies, Nedeljkovic will likely need to spend
another season in the AHL. He posted strong numbers there (2.26 GAA, .916 SV%) in 2018-19 while also leading
the Charlotte Checkers to an AHL championship. Nedeljkovic should be promoted if one of the starters is injured
and could even bump Reimer if Mrazek is injured. In addition, he‟s in a good spot under one of league‟s stronger
defensive systems.
Antti Raanta, Coyotes
Raanta was a popular sleeper last season but he couldn‟t deliver because his season ended early because of
injuries. The Coyotes have stated that Raanta and Darcy Kuemper, who went on a second-half run after Raanta‟s
injury, will battle for the starting job. That may be true, but the Coyotes have more money invested ($4.25 million
as opposed to $1.85 million) in Raanta than in Kuemper. Either goalie can post solid ratios from playing in a
defensively-favorable system.
Cam Talbot, Flames
Talbot had two solid seasons followed by two awful seasons in Edmonton. Because the Flames possess a much
stronger defense than that of their provincial rivals, Talbot has the opportunity for a bounce-back season. He may
not be worth reaching for since he may be splitting starts with David Rittich. However, his is a name to keep in
mind as a late-round pick in a standard-sized draft.
Semyon Varlamov, Islanders
Speaking of systems, Varlamov is entering a great one. Over his career, he‟s ranged from being anywhere
between great and mediocre, so you‟re never totally sure which version you‟ll receive. At least Barry Trotz and
goalie coach Mitch Korn will be able to work their magic on an Islanders‟ team that went from worst to first in
goals allowed per game in just one season. The Isles have committed to him for four years, so he‟ll get his chance.
Ian Gooding writes Daily Ramblings

and is Managing Editor at DobberHockey.com

PIM PRODUCERS
By Ian Gooding
Since the enforcer is now a dying breed, overall penalty minute totals have declined in recent years. In addition,
many fantasy leagues have replaced the penalty minute category with the hits category in order to measure a
team‟s grit. However, penalty minutes are still accounted for in many leagues.
Here are 20 players who will either rack up strong PIM totals now, or could see a jump in the category either soon
or in the future. The assumption is that penalty minutes are a positive category; in other words, the more the
better. If the opposite is true in your league, simply knock these players down in your rankings.
Points / Penalty Minutes Studs
Tom Wilson, RW, Capitals
Over Wilson‟s six-year career, no player has accrued more penalty minutes than him, and he‟s nearly 100 PIM
clear of the next-highest player. As well, Wilson has hit triple digits each season over his six-year career. Even
with his assurance to the Capitals that he will make better decisions and focus on scoring, he still reached 128 PIM
in 63 games in 2018-19. The penalty minutes might drop with the additional scoring, but he‟s still a must-own in
leagues that count either PIM or HITS.
Evander Kane, LW, Sharks
Kane, not Wilson, was the 2018-19 leader in penalty minutes (153 PIM). This total was easily his highest over his
career, although he‟s now hit triple digits in two of the last three seasons. Kane is extremely valuable in multi-
category leagues that count penalty minutes, as he also provides high totals in hits, shots, and goals. Kane also
led the NHL with 38 minor penalties, although his high total is also the result of having taken three misconducts
and three game misconducts.
Dustin Byfuglien, D, Jets
Big Buff accrues a lot of everything in multi-category leagues, and the PIM category is no different. Although he
was held to 69 penalty minutes in 2018-19 (in just 42 games), Byfuglien had hit triple-digit PIM totals in each of
the previous four seasons. Wear and tear might be a factor again as Buff might play a less physical style to
prolong his career, but we have yet to see a decline in penalty minutes per game.
Brad Marchand, LW, Bruins
Given Marchand‟s reputation around the league, there should be no surprise that he‟s on this list. It may come as
a surprise, then, that Marchand has never reached the 100 PIM mark in any one season (his career high is 96, set
in 2018-19). He should be included on this list, as his scoring ability (100 points in 2018-19) should make him an
elite option in multi-category leagues that count penalty minutes.
Evgeni Malkin, C, Penguins
Gino‟s might be a surprise name on this list, since he‟s not known for gritty play or crossing the line. However,
Malkin has more penalty minutes (253 PIM) than Marchand (240 PIM) over the past three seasons, which places
him 14th in the league over that span. Malkin has also ranged between 60 to 90 PIM over the past six seasons.
That‟s a reason to move Malkin up your rankings that you perhaps didn‟t know about.
Second-Tier Points / Penalty Minutes Options
Wayne Simmonds, RW, Devils
This power forward‟s point totals have declined in each of the previous three seasons to the point where he‟s no
longer a stud in multi-category leagues. However, a one-year „prove it‟ contract with the Devils might provide the

motivation for a bounce-back season. Simmonds has averaged over 100 PIM per season over the last four years,
so there should still be something left for leagues that count either PIM or HITS.
Andrew Shaw, RW, Blackhawks
The veteran has always provided a certain level of grit. However, his 47 points in 2018-19 represented a career
high, while he was able to reach that total in just 63 games (0.75 PTS/GP). Throw in his usual penalty minute and
hits totals and he was an underrated commodity in multi-category leagues. It will be interesting to see what
happens on his new team, but at least it‟s the same team that he originally carved out his reputation with.
Antoine Roussel, LW, Canucks
The agitator is expected to miss the first two months of the season after a season-ending knee injury in March.
Once he returns, he is worth remembering when searching your waiver wire. Over the past six seasons, only Tom
Wilson has more penalty minutes than Roussel. In addition, Roussel also has triple-digit PIM totals over each of
the past six seasons. Before the injury, Roussel was on target for nearly 40 points and should be in the Canucks‟
middle six once he returns.
Nick Ritchie, LW, Ducks
Now 23, Ritchie has the potential to be a sneaky-good option for both scoring and penalty minutes. As a 6-2, 234-
pound power forward, Ritchie might still be another season or two away from a breakout. In the meantime, he‟s
still providing solid penalty minute and hit totals, reaching a career-high 82 PIM in 2018-19. He reached over 100
PIM in his final two OHL seasons as well. He should also gain more responsibility as the Ducks take on more of a
youth movement.
Zack Kassian, RW, Oilers
The Kassasin has amassed 100 penalty minutes in three of the last four seasons, which places him in the top 10 in
that category over that span. He gets the nod here over former teammate Milan Lucic (now with Calgary) because
of higher penalty minute totals and the fact that he outscored Lucic in both goals and points in 2018-19. Kassian
doesn‟t have the desire to play as physically as Lucic, so Lucic might be the better option if your league counts hits
instead of penalty minutes.
Bloodlines / On the Verge
Matthew Tkachuk, LW, Flames
The elder Tkachuk brother has already established himself as a top-notch scoring threat. He‟s also known among
for his ability to get under the skin of opponents, which should only aid his ability to find his way to the penalty
box. Tkachuk‟s average of 62 PIM over the past two seasons might suggest better behavior than some of the other
names on this list, but remember that he is a Tkachuk.
Brady Tkachuk, LW, Senators
Just like Matthew above, Brady is a Tkachuk, which means he won‟t shy away from trouble. In his rookie season,
Brady earned 75 penalty minutes to go with his 45 points in 71 games. Given how desperate Ottawa is for
anything good, he may be instructed to stay out of the sin bin. However, he was easily able to surpass one PIM
per game in his time with the US National Team and Boston University.
Brendan Lemieux, LW, Rangers
Speaking of bloodlines, Brendan is a chip off the ol‟ block of his dad, who is former pest Claude Lemieux. The
younger Lemieux accumulated very high penalty minutes in both the OHL and AHL with triple-digit PIM totals in
four of those seasons. He even reached NHL triple-digits in a 2018-19 season that saw him get traded to the
Rangers from the Jets, so there‟s the potential for him to increase that number in a big way with more minutes.
Max Domi, C, Canadiens
As expected, Max more of a scoring threat than his father, Tie. As well, he was able to smash his previous career
high with 28 goals and 72 points in his first season in Montreal. Not only that, but he also reached a career high of
80 penalty minutes. This Domi is also not afraid to drop the gloves, with his Ryan Kesler KO serving as notice that
he‟s not a player to be messed with.

Darnell Nurse, D, Oilers
One more for the family file. Nurse doesn‟t have hockey bloodlines like the others; instead, his father was a former
CFL wide receiver. In 2018-19, the younger Nurse set a career high not only in points (41) but also in penalty
minutes (87). Nurse had one triple-digit PIM season in the OHL and also puts up strong hit totals, so he definitely
qualifies for this group as well.
Short-Term / Long-Term Prospects
Max Jones, LW, Ducks
The young sophomore split last season between Anaheim and San Diego of the AHL, but he should be able to stick
with the Ducks full-time this season with the team now on a youth movement. Jones plays with an edge, as seen
by his massive penalty minute totals during his days with the US National Development Program. He also received
two suspensions during his OHL days, although he has toned down the aggression somewhat since then. He might
still remind Ducks‟ fans of the departed Corey Perry, though.
Philippe Myers, D, Flyers
Although the recent acquisition of veteran Justin Braun may block his path, Myers should be with the Flyers soon.
Not only does the 6-5 Myers possess scoring upside, he also has potential for solid numbers across the board in
penalty minutes, hits and blocked shots. Those latter non-scoring categories may be where Myers is valuable once
he cracks the lineup for good, as there‟s lots of competition for power-play time.
Alexander Volkov, LW, Lightning
Volkov has posted very similar point and penalty minute totals during his two AHL seasons (20+ goals, 40+
points, 60+ PIM). He‟s not an over-the-top penalty minute option like some of the others, but he projects to be a
potentially solid player in multiple categories. He might be another year away but it‟s possible that he‟ll be in a
Lightning uniform for at least part of this season.
Klim Kostin, LW, Blues
In his second AHL season, the now 20-year-old Kostin recorded triple-digit penalty minutes. With the Stanley Cup
champion Blues already deep with scoring, Kostin will likely need to wait a while before cracking the NHL, not to
mention he‟ll need to up his AHL scoring. He has the size (6-3, 212) and grit to be a solid PIM contributor. Don‟t
forget that he captained Russia‟s entry at the last World Junior Championship, playing on the edge for his country.
Kieffer Bellows, LW, Islanders
Bellows is more of a long-term project than anything, as the former first-round pick was better at penalty minutes
(101) than points (19) during his first AHL season. Because he plays like a power forward, Bellows will need more
time, not just in the AHL but also once he is in the NHL. He‟s more likely to immediately contribute in the PIM
department once he arrives in the NHL, although the Isles are no doubt hoping the goals will come too.

20 TO INVEST IN FOR LONG-TERM PAYOFF
By Tom Collins
Just like real NHL teams, many fantasy hockey general managers like to stash players away on their roster hoping
that a future stud is just waiting to bust out any day now. Those players are not always easy to acquire. Rookies
and much-heralded players are always taken highly in fantasy pools. The real trick is to figure out what players
are struggling that you can acquire for cheap that can pay off in a few years.
One good way is to check who were the top prospects a couple of years ago that may have since fallen out of
favor with fantasy owners. Dylan Strome was much loved after his draft but quickly fell as he struggled to get ice
time in Arizona. A trade to Chicago with top-six minutes has made him a valuable fantasy commodity again. Below
are 20 players (non-rookies) to check out but who won‟t become fantasy relevant for another couple of seasons.
They‟ll be worth the wait, though.
Jesper Bratt, LW, Devils
A sixth-round draft pick in 2016, we‟ll look back on Bratt in 10 years and wonder how he slipped so far. He‟s a
quick player and has proven he can keep up with elite linemates, but can‟t stick in a top-six role consistently. It
will be even tougher this year as the Devils will have more depth on their team with the drafting of Jack Hughes,
the signing of Wayne Simmonds, the healthy return of Taylor Hall, and the acquisition of Nikiat Gusev.
Lawson Crouse, LW, Coyotes
Big Crouse is already a must-own in deep leagues that count various peripherals as last year he put up 67 PIM,
131 shots and 288 hits despite playing less than 13 minutes a game. He also had a stretch of 14 points in 25
games when he was rewarded with more ice time. He‟s going to be the next great power forward but he needs to
have the chance to contribute more than just peripherals.
Tony DeAngelo, D, Rangers
The talented and gritty d-man‟s ascent as the Rangers‟ top power-play defenseman hit a snag when the Rangers
acquired Jacob Trouba, who should now get most of the man-advantage time – which is a shame, considering
DeAngelo looked ready to claim that spot. After Valentine‟s Day, DeAngelo led the Rangers defensemen in power-
play ice time per game, as he collected six PPP and 15 points in 24 games after that date. On a good note for
DeAngelo, Kevin Shattenkirk‟s buyout alleviates the battle for power-play time.
Alexandar Georgiev, G, Rangers
With their recent additions (bringing in Jacob Trouba, Artemi Panarin and Kaapo Kakko), the Rangers are a much
better team this year, and Henrik Lundqvist will benefit greatly from it. The King is still the golden boy thanks to
his contract (two more years), so Georgiev would need to outrageously outplay Lundqvist to steal that No.1
position. He won‟t, and will have to wait at least one more year to get into a 1A/1B situation at best.
Danton Heinen, LW, Bruins
Heinen doesn‟t have the consistency to be trusted as a fantasy asset just yet, but his first two NHL campaigns
have shown lots of promise. He had 47 points as a rookie in 2017-18 but dropped to 34 last year. However, 21 of
those points came in the last 28 games with the opportunity to play with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand at
even strength. He‟ll bounce back and forth throughout the line, but should be a consistent top-six player in a
couple of years.
Joshua Ho-Sang, RW, Islanders
After much hype when drafted in 2014, Ho-Sang‟s stock falls further with each passing season. He has all the
talent but hasn‟t put it together just yet. Sometimes it just takes time. Of course, it doesn‟t help that he is

averaging 17 NHL games a season. Time is running out for the 23-year-old. At this point, he‟s a boom or bust
prospect, but I‟m leaning toward boom.
Henri Jokiharju, D, Sabres
It‟s no surprise that Jokiharju has seen his fantasy value drop tremendously after his trade to Buffalo. After all,
he‟s going from 19 minutes a night in Chicago (with a chance to be a top-four defenseman) to a squad where he‟ll
potentially be a bottom-two d-man and maybe even sent to the AHL, since the Sabres have a glut of blueliners. It
will take a while for him to become fantasy relevant again, so this is your best chance to buy low.
Tyson Jost, C, Avalanche
The pivot‟s fantasy owners may feel like they were screwed following Colorado‟s moves this offseason. Instead of
promoting from within, the Avalanche brought in a whole new potential second line (Nazem Kadri, Joonas
Donskoi and Andre Burakovsky). And there‟s still J.T. Compher to fight with for top power-play minutes. Jost will
be excellent one day, but it may take two or three years before he starts to sniff a top-six role.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C, Canadiens
The lanky Finni enjoyed a decent rookie season with the Habs last year, but he was a healthy scratch because of
fatigue late in the season and was dreadful on the road (zero goals and 11 points in 38 games). He has the
opportunity to be the future No.1 center in Montreal, but he‟s going to need some time to figure things out, and he
won‟t be getting top power-play time for a couple more years.
Luke Kunin, C, Wild
Three summers ago, Kunin was a great prospect destined to be a top-six scorer. After dealing with a torn ACL last
summer, he returned in December and was underwhelming. Like many young players on the Wild, he‟s stuck
waiting for older players such as Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu, Eric Staal, and Mats Zuccarello to either retire or see a
massive drop off in production before getting more ice time.
Brendan Lemieux, LW, Rangers
While it will take a few years before he starts seeing the ice time needed, Lemieux is going to be a beast one day.
He already is partly there, with 108 PIM and 129 hits in 63 games last year, despite averaging nine minutes a
night. He‟s shown he can score at the junior and AHL level. Give him a couple more years in a top-six role and he
could be as productive as Tom Wilson is now.
Charlie McAvoy, D, Bruins
Much of McAvoy‟s future success will hinge on Torey Krug, who is an unrestricted free agent in a year and
currently monopolizes the Bruins‟ top power-play unit. If Krug re-signs with Boston, McAvoy‟s rise to the top will
take an extra couple of years, if he ever gets there. If Krug leaves, then McAvoy finds himself in the plum power-
play position with no real opposition.
Casey Mittelstadt, C, Sabres
The hope for the Sabres (and fantasy general managers) is that Mittelstadt can be an excellent second-line center.
However, don‟t expect him to be one that quickly. Even if Mittelstadt has an upwards trajectory and nets 40-50
points as a sophomore this year, that makes him almost useless for this fantasy season. He needs top-six minutes
and power-play time before he can become a real threat for fantasy relevance.
Nolan Patrick, C, Flyers
Patrick has all the tools to be a great power forward, but it takes a few years for power forwards to fully develop.
The Flyers giving Kevin Hayes a long-term, big-money contract just gave Patrick another obstacle to climb over for
a top-six role or top power-play unit. If you own Patrick in keeper leagues, be prepared to wait at least two more
years before he can break through.
Jesse Puljujarvi, RW, Oilers
Puljujarvi is going to be constantly found on these types of lists until he gets traded or actually gets a shot at top-
six minutes. He‟s simply not going to produce playing 12 minutes a night playing with Jujhar Khaira. If he‟s
traded, he could be this season‟s Strome. If not, he‟ll probably wind up in the AHL for most of the year.
Jack Roslovic, RW, Jets
Roslovic was a sexy dark horse pick last summer as a breakout player, but that obviously never happened. In fact,
him playing less than 10 minutes a night was a complete shock to many fantasy general managers. There is hope
that he can be a multi-peripheral contributor one day, but that day is a ways away as Winnipeg is deep enough to
keep Roslovic buried.
Juuse Saros, G, Predators
Every year, it seems as if we say Saros is a year or two away. This is an important lesson for fantasy newbies:
don‟t draft young goalies too early in their careers. Anyone that drafted Saros three years ago is still waiting for
some sort of payoff. Remember that Pekka Rinne posted better numbers in almost every statistical category last
year over Saros. However, Rinne is turning 37 in November and the Preds need to look at his successor.
Dylan Sikura, RW, Blackhawks
Sikura was a popular dark horse Calder candidate last summer, but he wound up with a disappointing eight points
in 33 games while seeing just 11:17 of ice time per game. However, he showed a lot of promise in the AHL with
30 points in 40 games as a rookie there. Chicago has made a lot of moves this summer to bolster their top-six, so
Sikura will have to wait a while before he gets a true chance to show off his talents.
Robert Thomas, RW, Blues
In his rookie season, Thomas had an impressive 33 points and wound up winning the Stanley Cup. So, what does
he do for an encore? Let‟s keep in mind that he played just 13 minutes a game, mostly with Pat Marron, Tyler
Bozak, Ivan Barbashev, and Robby Fabbri. Both his ice time and the quality of linemates have to go up
significantly for him to break through, but the Blues won‟t be messing with a Cup-winning lineup anytime soon.
Linus Ullmark, G, Sabres
Ullmark has been slowly brought along through the Sabres system, and it‟s going to eventually pay off. Just not
this season. Right now, he‟s still battling the 33-year-old Carter Hutton for the top job, even though the two had
similar numbers last year. His biggest competition is Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who will spend at least a year or two
in the AHL to get used to the pro leagues.
Tom Collins pens ‘Top 10’ every Monday on DobberHockey.com

HOCKEY’S ADVANCED STATS
By Dobber
Eight years and counting. It appears that advanced stats are here to stay. And that shouldn‟t come as a surprise,
as they not only add tremendous insight to real-world hockey, but to fantasy hockey as well. As long as you don‟t
live and die by just two or three of the fancy stats, and only use them to add context, you can really gain an
advantage. Many of the advanced statistics can be used to enhance projections and aid in player speculation. I
think they are important in that they tell us how the coaches use a player and how the player responds to said
usage. This is of tremendous help when prognosticating.
Advanced stats have grown in popularity and are now referenced by even the most common fan (many of whom
probably take their faith in them a little too far, if Twitter is any indication, but I digress). All NHL teams have an
analytics department, as NHL coaches and general managers use these tools. More and more fantasy hockey
owners do, as well. As long as you understand two key things, you can truly get a better feel for a player.
The first thing to understand is that the sample size is small. Even after a full season, we‟re only talking about 82
games. That‟s a small sample size. If you look at things after one game, well you‟re probably just wasting your
time. But because seasons are only 82 games long, we have to take the data we get. We have no choice but to
see things in single-season, half-season, or even quarter-season increments. So, while this gives us an indication
of player trends, tendencies and abilities, it also leaves a lot of room for error. Saying “Player X is a terrible
possession player and a drag on his team because after 40 games his Corsi-For% is 47.2%” is not the right way to
go about it. CF% is just one stat and 40 games is a very small sample size. Perhaps by the end of the season that
number becomes 49%, and after two seasons it gets above 50%. Or, maybe it gets worse. We just don‟t know. All
we can determine is that during half a season, being used in the manner that he is being used, the player loses
possession more than he drives it. You simply need more data.
The second thing you need to understand is context. And that is provided by more stats. How old is the player?
How good are his linemates? How good is the opposition when he is put out there? What zone does he start most
of his shifts in? How much did „puck luck‟ play a role? Each of these questions can be at least partially answered
with other advanced statistics, and to gain the best perspective you need to see as many of those stats as you
can. The bottom line here is: Don’t plant your flag on a conclusion based on a few findings over a few
games. Always assume you could theoretically be wrong. If you remember that mantra, you‟ll use the data
more effectively.
Advanced statistics has proven to be extremely insightful in painting a picture for fantasy owners. They tell us how
players perform in certain situations – and which situations the coach is using them in. While much of this we
probably already knew via our „gut‟, there are a few interesting surprises that help us re-evaluate a player. Maybe
a player looks like a great fantasy own to you. However, upon seeing these numbers, you‟ll be able to identify the
fact that he's been seeing a lopsided amount of offensive zone starts and is facing the weakest competition. So
maybe the bottom will drop out on that player the moment the sweet minutes are taken away. We can also look at
5on5 S% and see just how lucky a player was in a given year. If this number spikes, then the player has seen an
inordinate amount of luck – the pucks are going in more than they usually do and once things return to normal his
production will, too.
I use Rob Vollman‟s Player Usage Charts here to provide my analysis. They measured Relative Corsi, Quality of
Competition and Zone Starts. I also look at Individual Points Percentage, Points per 60 Minutes and Percentage on
the power play. These, I will define below, and they can be found in our Frozen Tools section of the website. We
are now the only host of these charts and they can be found in any player profile or team Report Generator
section.
In the team-by-team sections, I will use terms like „sheltered‟ and „protected‟. This isn't to insult the player or
belittle his contribution in any way. It's just a term to indicate that the coach is utilizing him in a way that is best
for the team and that player. If he‟s a rookie, then he's probably going to see weaker opponents and start more of
his shifts in the other zone (and minimize risk of a goal against). That's just smart coaching. So, just like my term
„Band-Aid Boy‟ shouldn't be taken as an insult to an injury-prone warrior who plays the game hard, the term
„sheltered‟ isn't meant to poke fun at a player.

Although this is the seventh year, we have an 'Advanced Stats' section for each NHL team, you will not see most
of them become a trackable category in fantasy hockey. Besides the fact that it's too complicated, how would you
assign points for a player's final CorsiRel number? Or his zone starts? At some point very soon, pool managing
sites will track Corsi (SAT is the NHL.com term), or Fenwick (USAT) and this will eventually replace plus-minus.
You already see „Hits‟ and „Blocked Shots‟ as categories in many leagues. But the other stats will remain tools to
help a fantasy owner (and NHL GMs) speculate as to a player‟s future.
The best stats to look at:

We all have our favorites, but I'm going to give you mine. These are the stats I look at when evaluating players in
the offseason. In no particular order:
IPP (Individual Points Percentage): This is the percentage of the goals scored by a player‟s team while he was
on the ice, on which he picked up a point. This is mainly useful when looking at it year over year. A decline in this
number is an indicator of an erosion in talent, often due to age or injury.
TOI (Time on the Ice): I like to look at a player's ice time and power-play time to see if he is being used the
way he should. It‟s really only an issue with young players, or one-dimensional players. I also like to see if the ice
time in general was moving in an upward direction as the season went on. Seeing a rookie getting time on the
penalty kill is also a good reflection of the coach's trust.
SPSV% (PDO): I get into this more in the article below, but this is a good statistic to quickly draw your attention
to any player with an abundance of luck (good or bad). It takes the 5on5 S% + 5on5 SV% and the distance it
deviates from 1000 tells you if he was the victim (or beneficiary) of some lucky bounces.
5on5 S%: This is the shooting percentage of a player and his teammates when that player is on the ice. More
important than PDO in fantasy hockey, though it makes up only part of the formula. Generally speaking, a player
who is on the ice when his teammates (and himself) are shooting 5.5% is going to get more points next season
just from the puck going in at the proper rate (i.e. „market correction‟). League-wide, the average shot percentage
is about 9%. Actually, it was 8.89% last season and 9.13% the season prior. The average player, over enough
games, will see his 5on5 S% approach that number.
CF% (Corsi-For %): Corsi is defined in the above NHL.com link - they call Corsi „SAT‟. This takes the total shot
attempts by a player‟s team when he is on the ice… and divides it by the total shot attempts when he is on the ice
(both for and against) and multiplies this by 100. So, a number more than 50 indicates that he drives possession.
You can take this deeper by using the CF%Rel, but these numbers are getting more difficult to find as good
advanced stats sites shut down (so many bloggers are getting hired by NHL teams!). So, I‟ll stick to what can be
found on the NHL‟s website.
ZS% (Offensive Zone Start Percentage): What percentage of a player's shifts begin in the offensive zone? If
the number is 65%... then he's either being pampered by the coach, or he's being leaned on by the coach to score
goals. Often both. If that number is 35%, then he's obviously a checker, and even if he's putting some points on
the board it's probably safe to assume that his production is not going to improve in the season ahead.
QofC (Quality of Competition - aka CorsiRel QofC): This is a way of measuring how strong the competition is
that a player sees throughout the season. A player seeing the top line every game would obviously see a
QualComp number on the high end of the scale (say +1.20). A player seeing the fourth line every game would see
something closer to -1.20. It's measured by taking the average of the CorsiRel of each player on the opposition
that‟s on the ice. Seeing a high number here tells you that he's in good with the coach and can expect more
responsibility next year (if it's a young player), or that he‟s a superstar (if it's a veteran).
Pts/60 (Points per 60 minutes of ice time): This is pretty self-explanatory. Since ice time is not equal across
all players, what happens when we make it equal? A great way to see how up-and-coming players are doing with
the ice time that they are given. I have added the top seven players in this stat for each team, and I left in the
league-wide ranking for 2015-16. Just a helpful reference.
%PP: The percentage of a team‟s available power-play time that a player is on the ice.

How to read the charts:
Name Pos GP ZS% PDO 5on5 SV% 5on5 S% CF% %PP IPP ES IPP PP IPP PTS/60
MAX COMTOIS L 10 38.4 1169 0.964 20.5 33.33 35.1 87.5 87.5 0 2.9
ONDREJ KASE R 30 53.5 1002 0.907 9.6 56.87 45.7 74.1 69.6 100 2.6
RYAN GETZLAF C 67 46.9 981 0.902 7.9 50.84 58.5 75 72.5 84.6 2.2
JAKOB SILFVERBERG R 73 41.4 995 0.93 6.6 47.24 47.7 76.8 85.3 57.9 2.1
NICK RITCHIE L 60 55.4 1030 0.935 9.5 48.85 41.4 60.8 61.1 64.3 2.1
This is just a snippet from the Anaheim section, with the first few columns self-explanatory. The ZS% column
measures how often a player starts his shift when the faceoff is in the offensive zone compared to starting in the
defensive zone (with neutral zone starts omitted). This shows in limited action (10 games), Max Comtois was
given more shift starts in his own zone than in the opposition zone, which obviously makes it more difficult for him
to score. Whereas Ondrej Kase starts in the offensive zone more often than not, providing him with more of a
scoring advantage. * Please note that in the team sections for these charts, I have removed the smaller sample
sizes such as Comtois‟ 10 GP, just to have a more accurate analysis. On a case-by-case basis, I would remove
players who are now on different teams, depending on if the data is helpful or not.
PDO is our luck measurement, which adds the 5on5 S% to the 5on5 SV% to get a number that compares to 1000.
In this case, Comtois has seen a high amount of puck luck, centering on his 5on5 S% of 20.5%. This means that
the players on the ice with him score on 20.5% of their shots on goal. That‟s obviously crazy-good luck and quite
unsustainable. Meanwhile, Jakob Silfverberg‟s 995 PDO is around the norm, however when you look more closely
you can see that his 5on5 SV% is rather high (his goalie‟s SV% is at .930 when he‟s on the ice) and his 5on5 S%
is a little low at 6.6%. Over time, both of those numbers will move towards the norm, meaning he would like
produce more points but his team would give up more goals when he is on the ice.
CF% measures the player‟s Corsi-For compared to the other team‟s Corsi-For while he‟s on the ice. A number
above 50% indicates that the player drives possession more than he loses it. However, this needs to be taken with
a grain of salt since there are no Quality of Competition statistics to help put it in perspective (which is where
Vollman‟s Player Usage Charts – described below – comes into play).
As you can see with the %PP, Comtois wasn‟t given a large chunk of the team‟s PP time, whereas established star
Ryan Getzlaf has been out there for 58.5% of available time. Based on only this number, you can expect Getzlaf to
produce more points.
IPP shows that all three of these players are key drivers of production. When Anaheim scored while one of them
was on the ice, he had an impact on the scoring play more than average.
Pts/60 is self-explanatory, but it‟s a good number to look at when it comes to rookies and sophomores. You know
that their ice time is probably going to rise as they gain more experience, so if they are producing well with lesser
ice time then there is a potential for a breakout ahead. This is exemplified here just from seeing that Comtois led
the team.
Just a quick lesson in hockey math. This is what I‟ll be digging into as we go through the team sections, but I
won‟t be providing the charts this year. You can run this report anytime via our Frozen Pool Report Generator
(click here) and select „Advanced Stats‟. What I will show for each team is the Player Usage Chart because it gives
a prettier illustration of the situation. I can determine what‟s going on a lot faster using those charts, and I will use
the above chart to dig deeper into IPP, %PP and Pts/60.

Player usage charts – how to read those:
I use Rob Vollman‟s charts and discuss the fantasy impact of what I'm seeing for each of the 31 NHL teams. To
help you follow along with that, I'll put in a clean chart with just a few players and I will explain what you're
seeing. You don't need to follow the chart if you don't want to – I explain what it says and provide you
with a conclusion. But some of you may truly be interested in these easy-to-read charts and could use the quick
lesson. So, here we go. To keep it simple, I just went with a select group of players and I used Edmonton (2018-
19) as an example.
On the left (vertical) axis is

the Quality of Competition.
The higher this number is,
the tougher the opponents
each player was on the ice
against. You can see that
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins faced
the toughest competition by
far. Zack Kassian? Not so
much. His bubble is in the
lowest position on the chart.
Speaking of bubbles, the

size of the bubble indicates
the average ice time.
Obviously, the defensemen
would have the bigger
circles here (as well as the
superstar forwards).
The horizontal axis is the

Offensive Zone Start %.
McDavid (of course) got the
favorable zone starts – as
you would expect. Most of
the bubbles are toward the
left side, which is because
Edmonton had more
faceoffs in their own zone
than in the opposition‟s
zone. But when it was in the
offensive end, it was
McDavid and Leon Draisaitl
out there.
And finally, the color. Blue is good. Dark blue is better. Brown is bad. The darker the blue, the higher the player's
CorsiRel (i.e. he drives possession because he‟s on the ice when his team gets more shot attempts). The darker
brown indicates that the player tends to lose possession (negative CorsiRel) – the other team gets in the shot
attempts. In this example, McDavid, Milan Lucic and Adam Larsson have the deepest blue bubble, which indicates
they have the highest CorsiRel. Kris Russell‟s bubble is dark brown, indicating a negative CorsiRel. And as noted
above, you need to look at multiple statistics to get a better picture. Lucic drives possession? Well, yes, if his ice
time is limited and he‟s not out there against the strongest competition, while being surrounded by stonger
linemates – sure.
There you go. Quick lesson, maybe too quick, but this isn't math class!

HITS AND BLOCKED SHOTS
By Eric Daoust
In each team section, Daoust presents a chart of projected Top 12 players for the newer statistics tracked by the
NHL. These stats are subject to the bias of the stat trackers in each home arena and that was taken into
consideration. Some arenas are more generous than others. But throwing a check on another player or blocking
his shot, those are good things. Getting two minutes in the sin bin, or earning a minus-1 simply because you
happen to have a weak team and an even weaker goalie who let in yet another softie, those are bad things. PIM
and plus-minus may never completely leave the fantasy hockey arena, but those stats are losing ground quickly to
Hits and BLKS. And for the sixth straight year, we have projections for them.
Furthermore, in the Draft List (comes with this Guide, simply go back to your download section and pick it up), all
players will have a projection for hits and blocked shots.
The sections ‘Hits/Blocked Shots’ and ‘Dobber Advanced’ take fantasy analysis to the next level.
Eric Daoust analyzes trends for hits and blocked shots and projects accordingly, while
Dobber presents observations based on his findings looking at the above advanced stats.
Check out our new Reporting Tools – reports have been added and/or expanded!

THE 5-ON-5 S% – 2019 EDITION
By Dobber
The „PDO‟ stat measures luck, or randomness. It uses the idea that shooting percentage and save percentage for
all the players in the NHL will add up to 100% (PDO=1000) across the league. If given a large enough sample size
(i.e. enough games played), a player's PDO will adjust to 1000. Actually, this number is more like 998 due to
empty netters, but you get the idea. For individual players, you look at the 5on5 S% (i.e. how the team shoots
when that player is on the ice) and the 5on5 SV% (how the goalie does when that player is on the ice). Over an
82-game season, most players will fall into the 975 and 1025 PDO range, and 8.0% to 9.0% 5on5 S%. These
ranges are even bigger if you look at smaller sample sizes, so at the 20-game mark, if you study the 5on5 S% of
players you would find an opportunity to „buy low‟ if the player has a 5on5 S% that is far below 8.0%, or „sell high‟
if he's on a tear but his 5on5 S% is well over 9.0%.
For the last seven years, I've been looking at the extreme cases and listing them here, either as players that are
set to regress, or players that will improve simply based on this „luck factor‟. And the projections have been
shockingly accurate. So, I'll keep going with this, the eighth year for this analysis. This statistic is available in any
player profile on Frozen Tools (see that player‟s Advanced Stats tab), or in any team‟s Advanced Stats report in
the Report Generator.
Declined?
Last year, I had Brad Marchand leading the way here, saying – and I quote – “he won‟t produce 1.25 points per
game again because his 5on5 S% was 10.6%. Oh my, he went out and posted 1.27 points per game and 100
points in total.” It turns out this was the pretty much the only „decline‟ that was wrongfully projected (the other
one being easily explained, read on). It‟s further proof, as I noted in the above Advanced Statistics article, that
stats are merely indicators and should never be put in stone.
The other players in this section were Yanni Gourde, Claude Giroux, Reilly Smith, Zach Hyman, Ryan Spooner,
Josh Manson, and Dustin Brown – each of whom saw significant drops, with the exception of Hyman. This
exception actually increased his production slightly but that was because he got to play with John Tavares. An
increase of one point when suddenly playing with Tavares?
So once again, I was 6-2-0, as I will still call the Hyman one a loss. Overall, my record looking strictly at 5on5 S%
to determine players who will decline is now: 45-8-4. Still ridiculously accurate.
Improved?
Calling for an improvement in production is a little more difficult than calling for a decline. Injuries are an
additional factor that would hurt production, thus harming the projected improvement – whereas it actually helps
with any projections of a decline. Last season was a tough one. Tage Thompson somehow brought his 0.22 points-
per-game average even lower when he posted a 0.18. Alex Galchenyuk also slipped from 0.62 to 0.57 on his new
team – but a nagging lower-body injury dragged his production down. I‟ll take the two losses there. Three players
improved but the improvement was so slight that I refuse to call them wins: Joel Eriksson Ek, Brady Skjei and
Jonathan Drouin, who only improved from 0.60 to 0.65 (46 points to 53).
J.T. Compher had a real nice season even though he was injured. His 32 points in 66 games was helpful at times
in fantasy leagues. Michael Frolik and Artturi Lehkonen also had decent improvements in production. At 3-2-3, the
seven-year record for this section is a respectable 31-16-10.
Over the seven years, this 5on5 S% column boasts a 76-24-14 record in projecting improvement/decline on the
extreme cases of full-season 5on5 S%.
Let's take a look at this year's crop:

Should Decline…
Andrew Shaw, C/RW, Chicago Blackhawks – The 27-year-old had an amazing season, setting career highs in
assists (28), points (47) and plus-minus (plus-17), despite missing 19 games due to injury. But don‟t be misled.
His 11.51% 5on5 S% was fifth in the entire league and nearly double what it was for him in the prior season
(6.3%).
Patrick Kane, RW, Chicago Blackhawks – Kane reached the 100-point mark for the second time in his career
and set a personal high with 110 points. As a superstar in this league, having a high 5on5 S% number is to be
expected, but his 11.35% topped his previous high of 10.84% (2012-13) by a wide margin.
Morgan Rielly, D, Toronto Maple Leafs – The 25-year-old really came into his own last season when he posted
72 points, topping his previous high of 52. His 20 goals were just one shy of his previous three seasons combined
– and there is where you will see the decline. He had a personal S% of 9.0 when he generally sits in that 3.5% to
5.0% range. His 5on5 S% was 11.31%, which was 10th in the league and second amongst defensemen to John
Carlson.
Tomas Hertl, C, San Jose Sharks – It took Hertl six seasons but he finally put it all together last year, posting
74 points and surpassing his career high by 28. That was probably a little too high for him at this stage and I
would expect a small regression based on his 11.03% 5on5 S%. In 2017-18, it was 7.04%, while it was 6.25% in
2016-17.
Matt Duchene, C, Nashville Predators – Duchene has reached 70 points twice in his career. Once, in 2013-14
when it was a contract year. He got his contract and had four seasons of sub-60 points. Then last season, he hit
70 for the second time. Now, he has another big new contract. Besides this interesting information, Duchene joins
a team that notoriously keeps scoring down. If these things don‟t convince you that Duchene is about to regress,
then take a look at last year‟s 5on5 S%. It was 10.76%, which was a career high.
Brayden Point, C, Tampa Bay Lightning – The 23-year-old jumped from 66 to 92 points last season and had
given no indication that he had that kind of production in him. His career high in the WHL was 91 points! Well, his
10.73% 5on5 S% indicates that a decline is on the way. In fact, it may have already started – he had just 14
points in the final quarter (19 games).
Max Domi, C, Montreal Canadiens – From 45 points to 72. Sure, 2018-19 was his magical fourth year, but that
kind of production was just too much. His 10.69% 5on5 S% bears that out, though in general he hovers slightly
above the league norm.
Cam Atkinson, RW, Columbus Blue Jackets – I could also have had Pierre-Luc Dubois here, and in fact PLD
had a higher 5on5 S% than Atkinson (11.41% vs. 10.66%). The loss of their star linemate Artemi Panarin will hurt
both players. But because Dubois is only 21 years old, his natural develop may counter much of the potential
„puck luck‟ regression. Atkinson, meanwhile, is 30. And while he‟s talented enough to keep his numbers close to
last year‟s, they are still bound to dip at least a little.
Should Improve…
Tanner Pearson, LW, Vancouver – Pearson looked to be on the decline in Los Angeles and then in Pittsburgh he
struggled even more, despite initially seeing time on Evgeni Malkin‟s line. Just when we‟re about to write him off,
he finds his game again in Vancouver of all places. Upon joining the Canucks, Pearson tallied nine goals and 12
points in 19 games. Overall, his puck luck was among the worst in the league, finishing up with a 5.91% 5on5
S%. He may never become that 60-point player we thought he would be, but he‟ll rebound to the levels we were
used to seeing from him. He showed a lot of chemistry with Bo Horvat.
Nick Bjugstad, C, Pittsburgh Penguins – Bjugstad had a strong finish to the 2017-18 season, but struggled
coming out of the gate in 2018-19. A trade to Pittsburgh helped only a little, and he finished the campaign with
the second-lowest points-per-game average of his career (0.41). His 5.97% 5on5 S% indicates that a nice
rebound is forthcoming.
Shea Theodore, D, Vegas Golden Knights – Perhaps the player I was asked about the most by readers this
past year was Theodore, as they expected him to build on his 29-point (in 61 games) season. While he did score
12 goals, his production was virtually the same at 0.47 points per game. His 5on5 S% dipped from 7.16% to
6.00%, which is actually quite significant and probably cost him six or seven points off his end total.

Alex Galchenyuk, C, Pittsburgh Penguins – Always a sucker for punishment, I‟m sticking Galchenyuk here for
a second consecutive summer. Last year, he struggled with injury but it was of the nagging variety and he played
through much of it. This year, even if he gets hurt again, the odds are that it won‟t be something that impacts his
play when healthy. Plus, he‟ll see time with either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. I‟m going all in here.
Galchenyuk‟s 5on5 S% last year was 6.00, one of the lower numbers in the league among forwards.
Jason Zucker, LW, Minnesota Wild – If Theodore was the player I was asked about the most by readers, then
Zucker was definitely No.2. Used even more in an offensive capacity last season (his offensive zone starts surged
from 43.0% to 54.7%), he was still snakebitten. His 5on5 S% was 6.13%, so the puck luck just wasn‟t there. Bet
on him to get back up above 50 points. Maybe his 2017-18 was „too‟ good, but last year was still an over-
correction for that.
Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Carolina Hurricanes – Svechnikov can‟t really rebound from a down year when he
was only a rookie. And he actually had a decent year. So, it‟s cheating when I put a rookie in here. But it‟s
important to note that his 5on5 S% was just 6.11%. He scored 20 goals and 37 points but theoretically those
numbers should have been much better if his linemates put more pucks in the net.
Kevin Fiala, LW, Minnesota Wild – The Wild were eager to acquire this guy, giving up a proven star in Mikael
Granlund for him. Fiala‟s ice time surged upon joining Minnesota, but his points dwindled. His 6.21% 5on5 S% is
one reason for that and it would be shocking if he didn‟t add at least 10 points to last year‟s total.
Mikael Granlund LW, Nashville Predators – The other half of that Fiala trade – Granlund – also struggled in his
new digs. But Granlund also had other life experiences to juggle. His wife was actually in labor when he got the
phone call to tell him he was traded. He managed just five points in 16 games with the Preds. His 5on5 S% of
6.37% was one reason for this and I‟m sure off-ice distractions were another. A serious buy-low candidate here,
as we all know what he can do.

THE NEW 4TH -YEAR MAGIC?
Games played to determine Breakout performers
By Dobber and Mat Porter
Back in 1997, in a fourth-year university Mathematics class project, I analyzed 15 years of data to determine a
system for predicting points. I still use that system to this day, with only a couple of minor tweaks. Back in 2003
for The Hockey News, I did further analysis to determine that the fourth year was the most likely season that a
player breaks out. Roughly speaking, offensive players make big jumps in their production in years two through
six. In the fourth year, 24%t of players jump by 25%. I used this as a rough guide for a breakout year for players
entering their second, third, fourth, fifth, or sixth seasons: 16%, 19%, 24%, 21%, 14%… and go with 6% for
seventh seasons and beyond.
But this can be broken down further. Over time, I noticed that bigger players (and diminutive players) take an
extra couple of years to hit that breakout campaign. And there were other issues – what happens when a player
plays 30 games as a rookie, 15 games the following year, and then 80 games after that? Is the ensuing year his
fourth year? His third? His second? There were many examples like this in which things became too muddled. If
you are regular reader of the Daily Ramblings, you probably know about a person who frequently comments with
some pretty great insight. He goes by the handle „Striker‟ but his true name is Mat Porter. He has done away with
the „fourth year/fifth year/sixth year‟ stuff and just gave it a career games played threshold. Striker agreed to
have his numbers put into this Fantasy Guide, and we will be doing away with the fourth-year magic and instead
use a firm and tangible „games played‟ format.
The 80/20 rule: 80% follow this system, 20% are exceptions in that they either step right in and get the
opportunity to succeed immediately (i.e. Connor McDavid – rare and usually reserved for top draft picks), or they
crash and burn, never becoming the player they were thought to be (i.e. Nail Yakupov).
The Breakout Threshold (BT)
Average-sized forwards (between 5-10 and 6-2, or between 171 and 214 pounds) need 200 NHL regular season
games to figure it out. At that point, they should show what they will be when fully developed. The player is
comfortable with the pace of the game and the power of opposing players and it starts to show in his production.
The uptick in production is sharp and noticeable. Generally speaking, with lots of leeway and exceptions of course,
look for 25% or higher year-over-year increase. That doesn't mean these players have peaked. Once they hit that
breakout threshold, or BT, these players will continue to improve for several more years and should hit the
pinnacle of production between the ages of 25 and 28. Forwards then play at or near this level until approximately
31 years of age. At this point, when it generally comes to average-sized players, they begin to decline.
Defensemen and exceptionally-sized forwards need 400 NHL regular season games. We define „exceptional‟ here
as 5-9, or 170 pounds or less, on the small size, while on the bigger end we use 6-3 or 215 pounds, or more. For
monster forwards this is due to simple physics. It takes longer to adapt to your body. A lot of these kids were 5-11
at age 16 and suddenly at age 18 they are 6-4 and weigh an additional 30 pounds. They need a bit more time for
their hands and feet to catch up to what they were doing as a teenager, and they take time to figure out that they
can use their size and strength to their advantage. For diminutive forwards, they take longer to adapt to the new
speed. They dominated junior hockey with quickness and fancy moves, and some adjustments need to be made.
These smaller forwards also take longer to earn more opportunities from coaches who tend to lean on the bigger
players. Defensemen take longer to learn the defensive side of the game and earn the coach‟s trust.
Although the 80/20 rule holds for player development and their respective breakouts, not all forwards and
defenseman are going to play into their early 30s as forwards or mid-30s as defensemen. Older players are being
pushed out of the game far sooner than in the past as the quality of young talent is increasing quickly. Only the
really good offensive players will last, unless they are exceptional defensively (such as Nate Thompson, Ron
Hainsey, etc.). It should also be noted that according to Striker‟s BT system, the age of a player when he first
enters the NHL isn't a factor regardless if he is 18 or 26. Players coming out of college, junior or from overseas
still need the same timeline to get acclimated. The only difference is they may be more physically and mentally
mature, so they can step in with less time spent in the minors.

We do not give up on a player until they have reached their BT. At that point, you have to determine if a player is
ever going to get the opportunity to produce. You need to look at the quality of their ice time, which line they play
on, or what their outlook is when it comes to the team‟s power-play units. Many players just get pigeonholed into
defensive roles. Expansion opened up opportunities for players such as William Karlsson and Erik Haula, who could
quite possibly have become checking-line specialists were it not for their move to Vegas.
Timing the BT
What if a player‟s BT arrives in the middle of the season? After all, 200 games is pretty much midway through a
third season, so if the player is healthy he hits his stride sometime in January of that year. Or, the player bounces
up and down, to and from the minors a lot over those first couple of years, so his 200 th game arrives in November
or March. This is where things get tricky with the BT system – and again it should be noted that nothing is
absolute. A player may hit 200 games at game 40 (i.e. in January) and just start breaking through, but not have
enough time to hit that 25% production level at the end of 82 games. This means the 25% (or higher) bump
should fully arrive in the ensuing season. And hey – isn‟t that his fourth year? It‟s always a great indicator if you
see that a player finishes the previous season with 230 or 240 career games and he just enjoyed a very strong
second half. When you see that, then feel confident in a potential breakout for the year ahead.
What if a player is seriously injured as a rookie or a sophomore (or both)? The injured player may lose significant
development time. Consider a player such as Robby Fabbri in St. Louis. He had a solid rookie season and an
incredible playoff run in the same year, but then suffered a serious knee injury. That was followed by another knee
injury that wrote off an entire season of the most important development time in his career. Once healthy, he
struggled to keep up with the pace and had to gradually work his knee back into shape – but the team just can‟t
afford to give him that kind of time. Suddenly, he‟s getting scratched at times and/or or getting his ice time
stifled. Is 200 games in that situation really getting him up to the level of development he needs to be at? A
breakout in 2019-20, when he reaches 200 games, would mean a 47-point season (i.e. 25% improvement on his
career-high rookie season). Not impossible, but highly unlikely and it would be unwise to bank on the BT strategy
here. This is most likely going to be the „20‟ in the 80/20 rule. When it comes to injuries, you have to be flexible
with your thinking and take things case by case.
In Summary
In this year‟s team pages, rather than listing each player entering their fourth year, I will instead note the players
who fill the Breakout Threshold. These will be the players who either just recently hit the 200- or 400-game mark
(depending on their classification) in the second half of last season, or they will hit the threshold in the season
ahead. This may include 50-point players who could break out and post 70. Or, perhaps it will be 25-point players
that would have more modest breakout seasons in the 35-point range.
Last year‟s BT players included Mikko Rantanen, Sebastian Aho, Mitch Marner, Brayden Point, Jake Guentzel, and
Max Domi, to name just a few.
Whatever you do, don‟t forget the 80/20 rule. This is only a guideline and there will be plenty of misses and
misclassifications. A great example of this: Tomas Hertl is a half-inch shy of being classed here as a big forward.
Had he been classified as such, then last year‟s breakout was right on schedule (crossing 400 games). At 6-2, he
didn‟t hit that threshold. But you knew he had talent and could do more, so maybe when looking at him last
summer you figured he was close enough and worth the gamble. If you want to use this system properly, you
should be a little flexible with it. No system is perfect.
Dobber founded DobberHockey in 2005 and his work can be found

in many Internet and magazine publications. You can also find him frequently in the
Dobber Sports Forum under the clever handle, ‘Dobber’

DOBBER’S TEAM-BY-TEAM PROJECTIONS
 (%) in the charts indicates the percentage certainty that the prospect has of making the team, or the
percentage confidence that Dobber has that the sleeper pick will hit the given point total.
 Just a quick note on a player‟s long-term upside. You may notice that generally speaking the younger players
have a higher upside than the older ones. This is because they have not yet established a pattern of
production. Their upside could be dramatically lower in as little as a year from now. Whereas a 30-year-old is
pretty set in terms of what he can do…a prospect‟s upside does not mean he will even make the NHL. Take
the upsides with a grain of salt.
 The (above) columnists‟ opinions may not necessarily reflect/match Dobber‟s…or even each other‟s, for that
matter. These extras are here to give you another perspective (i.e. some of their predictions/statements may
be completely different from what you read below). The writers‟ opinions are not stifled and they are not
forced to conform to a DobberHockey „party line‟. Another advantage to this Guide versus the other ones out
there.
 Goalie wins may not add up on each team because a trade may be in the cards, or a goalie may miss
time with a minor injury (if I knew who, then I would use that crystal ball for every prediction in his Guide!).
There may also be too many GP for the skaters – again, this is „trades‟ or injuries.
 Roughly speaking, offensive players make big jumps in their production in years two through six. In the
fourth year, 24 percent of players jump by 25 percent. Use this as a rough guide for a breakout year for
players entering their second, third, fourth, fifth, or sixth seasons: 16%, 19%, 24%, 21%, 14%…and go
with 6% for seventh seasons and beyond. I note the players entering their fourth year. Again – the difference
is marginal, but every edge matters. This year, we expand this line of thinking into our new BT (Breakout
Threshold) feature. Details on how that works can be found on page 53.
 Plus-minus is a team statistic. I‟m not sure why some roto-leagues have it as a category, but some do and
that‟s a fact of life. I don‟t break down predictions by player in this category because chances are it will be
very similar to last season – unless the team as a whole gets worse/better. As such, I make a comment on
the team impact on plus-minus to give you a ballpark idea of how it will shake down and I discuss any
extreme examples.
Legend:
1st Power play (2.4 PP minutes/game +)
2nd Power play (1.0 – 2.3 PP min./game)
Explanation of Advanced Stats:
- PDO: See Dobber‟s column (above).

- CorsiRel, QofC, Zone Starts and all other advanced stats: See Dobber's column (above).
- Pts/60: Points per 60 minutes of ice time (again, further explained in Dobber‟s column above).
- QS: Quality Starts. Games with save percentage above league average, or games with fewer than 20 shots
and a save percentage above 0.885.
- 3YP: Dobber‟s actual long-term projection for that player over his averaged peak three years in the future.
This could be current year plus next two seasons for veterans on the decline, or it could be seven/eight/nine
years from now in the case of an 18-year-old.

Anaheim DUCKS
Left Wing GP G Pts PIM Center GP G Pts PIM Right Wing GP G Pts PIM
Rickard Rakell 75 29 57 30 Ryan Getzlaf 66 12 50 50 Jakob Silfverberg 76 25 50 22

Nick Ritchie 72 15 37 79 Adam Henrique 82 21 46 26 Troy Terry 74 16 35 18
Devin Shore 80 11 34 12 Sam Steel 70 18 37 34 Ondrej Kase 63 18 42 18
Max Jones 67 14 26 53 Carter Rowney 52 5 13 14 Kiefer Sherwood 64 7 16 16
Nicolas Deslauriers 50 4 9 30 Derek Grant 61 8 18 24 Daniel Sprong 32 7 14 10
Maxime Comtois 30 6 14 24 Patrick Eaves 0 0 0 0
Defense Defense Goalies GP W SO
Cam Fowler 69 6 28 24 Hampus Lindholm 72 6 34 47 John Gibson 59 25 1

Josh Manson 79 4 28 66 Jacob Larsson 71 1 14 20 Ryan Miller 19 6 0
Brendan Guhle 63 2 17 28 Jani Hakanpaa 30 3 8 24 Anthony Stolarz 9 2 0
Josh Mahura 37 2 12 8 Michael Del Zotto 58 4 16 24
Korbinian Holzer 43 1 6 20
Restricted Free Agents: none
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Troy Terry – The gang on our website‟s Forum once again voted for the featured players in
these Lowdowns, and many were curious about Terry because he had spent a bit of time at the top of the Fantasy
Prospects Rankings posted monthly on DobberHockey. But the thing is, my outlook on Terry hasn‟t changed. His rookie-
pro campaign was a great success, posting a point-per-game for half an AHL season and 0.41 points-per-game in 32
games with the Ducks. Once we saw him as one of Team USA‟s best players at the 2018 Olympics, his NHL outlook was
set: he can compete and produce against professionals. His quick transition to the pro game only underscores this.
You‟re looking at a typical 200-game transition towards his upside, and as things stand now, I think his chances are
above average with regards to getting close to that number. This season is another stepping stone. The only red flag with
him is the fact that he has suffered two injuries in the span of 12 months as a pro. He had 10 points in the final 12
games thanks to a boost in PP time, prior to suffering a broken tibia on March 30.
 In typical Silfverberg fashion, he was red hot for Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
an extended length of time. This typically happens
to the 28-year-old and generally runs from 25 to Trevor Zegras 85 67 Troy Terry 99%
45 games and has happened both to start and to Rickard Rakell 75 63 Sam Steel 95%
finish seasons. Who knows which one you‟ll get this
Ryan Getzlaf 80 53 Maxime Comtois 90%
year? All we know for sure is that it will happen at
some point. He finished last season with 23 points Sam Steel 78 53 Max Jones 70%
in the last 26 games. We‟ve been waiting five or six Maxime Comtois 80 53 Brendan Guhle 70%
years for him to carry that on through a full 82.
Troy Terry 75 52 Josh Mahura CUT
 Make it three. That‟s right, for three straight
Nick Ritchie 70 50 Isac Lundestrom 45%
seasons, Rakell‟s best quarter was the final one. He
finished with 17 in 20 games, after posting 21 Jakob Silfverberg 70 50 Jani Hakanpaa CUT
points in the last 19 the year prior. He is obviously Ondrej Kase 65 47 Daniel Sprong CUT
a great one to have for those of you in leagues with
playoffs in the final weeks of the season. Three. Adam Henrique 60 45
Straight. Isac Lundestrom 75 43
 Getzlaf‟s most frequent linemates were Corey Max Jones 68 42 Sleeper Pts %
Perry and Rickard Rakell (though just 10.2% of the Benoit-Olivier Groulx 75 40 Troy Terry 50 20%
time). That trio was on the ice at even strength for
– one goal. He was more productive with any of Brayden Tracey 65 40 Maxime Comtois 45 20%
Rakell, Kase, Ritchie and even Sprong and Pontus Daniel Sprong 70 38 Ondrej Kase 55 20%
Aberg. Getzlaf‟s elite buddy Perry has turned into
Devin Shore 58 38 Sam Steel 49 15%
an anchor at this point, and Perry leaving the team
makes Getzlaf a reasonable bet as a dark horse to Josh Mahura 55 38 Rickard Rakell 67 10%
get back up to 70 points if the 34-year-old has one Ryan Kesler 58 38
more in him and he can stay healthy.
Cam Fowler 52 35
 After missing 18 games with a concussion, Kase
took a few games to get into game shape. Then he tallied 19 points in 20 games before coming down to earth. He
suffered a shoulder injury on January 17 that ended his season. The 23-year-old has yet to play 68 games as a pro at
any level.

Injury Alert: Once again, Ryan Kesler headlines the Ducks‟ injury situation. After dressing for only 60 games – and
just 44 two seasons ago – Kesler will sit out the entire 2019-20 campaign because of hip resurfacing surgery last May.
While Kesler may envision a potential return to play after a successful but lengthy recovery period, important to note is
that he‟ll already be 35 entering the new season … 52 games were missed by preseason breakout candidate Kase, who
finished with 11 goals and 20 points. Concussion (18 games) in early November and then a torn labrum (34 games)
put a damper on the 23-year-old‟s year. He underwent surgery for the shoulder last January and was sidelined for five
to six months … Equally as important was the leg fracture (tibia) sustained by hotshot rookie Terry, while blocking a
shot late in 2018-19. Fortunately, recovery went well and Terry was back on skates in June, so he remains one to
watch … Getzlaf spent his summer working out by following a core strengthening program to hopefully offset back
spasms he dealt with at various points last year and everything was pointing in the right direction. In total, he missed
15 outings during the course of the schedule…Eaves will miss the entire season…Steel is out day-today with a lower-
body injury as the season begins…Kase is day-to-day with a head injury
Goaltending: Starting with the just-turned 26-year-old Gibson, it was a middle-of-the-road performance for the
usually stingy-defensive Ducks in 2018-19. The good news was Gibson‟s third season in a row of manning the nets for
50-plus games. The not-so-good news was him recording his highest goals-against average (2.84) and (but still-solid)
save percentage (.917) since 2015-16. The Ducks have embraced an important rebuild and are packed with promising
youngsters, especially at forward, so you can continue to count on Gibson as one of hockey‟s most valuable
commodities in goal … Backing the latter up once again will be ol‟ reliable vet Miller, who chose to extend his stay in
Anaheim by inking a one-year extension before the summer‟s UFA period. Injury forced Miller out of 24 games, so the
Ducks went out and added Anthony Stolarz (18 GP, .901 SV%, with Phi/Edm) for insurance – he‟ll replace Chad
Johnson in that role, who wasn‟t re-signed … Kevin Boyle chipped in with five games (2.17 GAA) and remains a dark
horse at 27 years old. Meanwhile, third-rounder (2018) Lukas Dostal is an intriguing prospect further down the road …
Dobber’s confidence in Gibson being the starter: 100%
Breakout Threshold: There is nobody in the coming season who fits in with the criteria here, but Kase currently sits at
149 games. His real breakout is expected in 2020-21 but he‟s expected to cross the 200-game mark in February and is
one to keep an eye on in the final weeks.
Contract Year: Aside from veteran Eaves, but even then, general manager Bob Murray won‟t be dealing and wheeling in
any major way when he sits down with journeymen Miller, Grant, Holzer, and Martinson, all eligible for UFA status next
summer. They‟re all easily replaceable, especially considering the club‟s youth banging at the door … RFA-wise, the GM‟s
primary dossier will be that of Terry‟s, his prized offensive prospect for the future. Shore, Sprong and Guhle all have
something to prove in 2019-20, or risk being labeled definitive role-players, and will be looking to extend their tenures in
Anaheim as restricted free agents, as well.
PIM: Ruffian hockey is making way for a new wave

of skilled forward in Disneyland. Gone are Blocked Shots Hits
antagonists Corey Perry, Kevin Bieksa and Jared Boll,
Hampus Lindholm 126 Josh Manson 198
while Kesler is inching closer to official retirement.
That said, the Ducks won‟t be pushovers, as team Cam Fowler 112 Nick Ritchie 177
captain Getzlaf has shown time and time again that
Josh Manson 89 Michael Del Zotto 172
he‟ll gladly lead the pushback in any situation. Still a
solid points-PIM contributor, Getzlaf just needs to Michael Del Zotto 88 Nicolas Deslauriers 148
remain healthy, now more than ever considering the Jacob Larsson 85 Carter Rowney 124
amount of baby Ducks making their entrance at the
Pond. In 2018-19, Getzlaf collected 48 points in 67 Ryan Getzlaf 69 Ryan Getzlaf 116
skates to go along with 58 penalty minutes … Still Adam Henrique 67 Kiefer Sherwood 101
only 23, Ritchie (9-22-31) led the club with 82 PIM in
only 60 matchups, so busting the 100 plateau is well Devin Shore 64 Rickard Rakell 96
within reach with time as his offensive game also Jani Hakanpaa 62 Korbinian Holzer 95
matures. His 0.52 points-per-game mark was a
career-best … Now a sophomore, 21-year-old Jones Brendan Guhle 55 Devin Shore 94
looks to folllow into Ritchie‟s power forward footsteps
but with slightly more offensive potential, while industrious rookie Comtois could turn out as the best points-PIM heavy of
the three in short period … Manson (62 PIM) plays a rugged game from the blue line, all the while being responsible.
Plus-Minus: As a team, the Ducks were brutal in the plus-minus stat (which makes sense because it‟s a team stat and
this was a bad team). The top players were all below minus-10 and only the sheltered players were in the positive.
Things won‟t get any better this year and they may actually get worse. The youngsters who are new to the NHL will be
sheltered and protected from a horrible number here but the veterans will drag fantasy teams down in this stat.

Dobber Advanced… DUCKS
 Because the Ducks will have a new
coach in the fall, it is difficult to use
this chart to form an opinion about
how the players will be implemented.
We can, however, evaluate how they
responded to the former coach‟s
usage. And with Kesler done for the
season, all those defensive minutes
will need to go elsewhere.
 It would seem that no matter who
is coaching, Silfverberg will be used in
a defensive role at even strength. But
at least he set a career high in PP ice
time (and PPPts) last season.
 Kase was given sheltered minutes,

but judging by his strong possession
numbers, it is clear he can take on
more. One would assume that the
new coach gives him more ice time.
 Sprong and Ritchie were the two

most sheltered players on the Ducks.
Sprong really struggled and new
coach Dallas Eakins will have him in
the press box awfully quick if this
continues in the season ahead. He is
not a safe sleeper pick at all.
 Both Terry and Jones were given

offensive minutes, and weren‟t
sheltered when it comes to facing
tougher opposition lines. They held
their own out there and look to be on a quicker ascension than their early numbers indicate.
 Silfverberg is a big part of any goals scored at even strength (below), but not so much on the power play. This is
because his linemates aren‟t as talented five-on-five, so he becomes the key guy.
5on5 5on5
Pos GP ZS% PDO CF% %PP IPP ES IPP PP IPP PTS/60
SV% S%
RYAN GETZLAF C 67 46.9 981 0.902 7.9 50.84 58.5 75 72.5 84.6 2.2
JAKOB SILFVERBERG R 73 41.4 995 0.93 6.6 47.24 47.7 76.8 85.3 57.9 2.1
NICK RITCHIE L 60 55.4 1030 0.935 9.5 48.85 41.4 60.8 61.1 64.3 2.1
RICKARD RAKELL R 69 49.7 986 0.914 7.2 48.32 57.6 64.2 66.7 59.1 2
DANIEL SPRONG R 47 54.8 973 0.905 6.8 47.95 30.7 76.7 78.3 71.4 1.9
ADAM HENRIQUE C 82 50.8 1018 0.931 8.7 46.16 52.7 62.7 65.1 56.5 1.9
CARTER ROWNEY R 62 51 1000 0.933 6.7 48.97 1.6 90.9 90.5 0 1.5
KIEFER SHERWOOD L 50 49.5 1020 0.937 8.3 45.39 2.7 54.5 54.5 0 1.3
BRANDON MONTOUR D 62 48.1 997 0.926 7.1 49.63 43.4 51.5 48.3 75 1.1
ANDREW COGLIANO C 46 37.7 1004 0.955 4.9 49.44 1.8 68 66.7 100 1.1
CAM FOWLER D 59 53 1009 0.934 7.5 45.11 59.6 39 39 33.3 1

Arizona COYOTES
Clayton Keller 81 23 64 22 Derek Stepan 78 14 52 14 Phil Kessel 82 31 77 24

Nick Schmaltz 73 19 51 18 Christian Dvorak 77 16 41 20 Christian Fischer 74 9 29 19
Vinnie Hinostroza 74 21 48 16 Carl Soderberg 79 15 36 26 Conor Garland 71 14 34 34
Lawson Crouse 79 12 26 63 Brad Richardson 68 10 21 28 Michael Grabner 66 19 27 14
Barrett Hayton 30 6 13 10 Nick Merkley 20 2 7 4
O. Ekman-Larsson 81 16 47 47 Alex Goligoski 79 6 32 22 Antti Raanta 40 21 3

Niklas Hjalmarsson 68 1 22 29 Jakob Chychrun 67 8 28 38 Darcy Kuemper 43 18 3
Jason Demers 68 6 19 30 Jordan Oesterle 65 6 19 10 Eric Comrie 12 5 0
Kyle Capobianco 23 2 6 15 Ilya Lyubushkin 52 2 8 38 Adin Hill 2 1 0
Restricted Free Agents: Hill
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Nick Schmaltz – Pretty much everyone‟s favorite dark horse for two reasons. First, he is
targeted by many to possibly be Kessel‟s linemate. Second, he did very well upon arriving in Arizona last year until he
sustained a season-ending lower-body injury. But Schmaltz is a cautionary tale, and not just because he struggled with
injuries last year. As noted below, he‟s been terrible at the faceoff circle and the Yotes loaded up on strong faceoff men.
If he‟s a winger, he‟ll be on the left side. And that puts him below Keller on the depth chart. Between that and his history
of being inconsistent, Schmaltz has the widest range of any player on the roster, as he could get anywhere between 40
and 70 points. On the plus side, his huge seven-year contract should ensure that he will still get some opportunities on
the first line and on the power play. He will get another shot at center to start, and if he loses a lot of faceoffs again he‟ll
slide down the depth chart at that point.
 Stepan, Soderberg and Richardson each took

over 1000 faceoffs last season and were pretty Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
good at it (at least 49.1% win rate). Dvorak was Phil Kessel 90 75 Barrett Hayton 55%
incredible at them over 20 games (55%) and
prorated he would have had over 800 faceoffs on Clayton Keller 87 70 Kyle Capobianco CUT
the season. That‟s four centermen, each capable of Barrett Hayton 87 65 Nick Merkley CUT
winning draws. And then there‟s Schmaltz, who
Nick Schmaltz 75 60
had a 37% win rate last year and 40% the year
prior. He is being used less and less in that Christian Dvorak 85 60
capacity. Oliver Ekman-Larsson 68 53
 Hinostroza picked up 27 points in the second Vinnie Hinostroza 68 50
half (last 40 games). All but two of those points
Derek Stepan 67 50
were at even strength. From December through
February he was almost completely taken off the Conor Garland 75 50
power play. So, his five PPPts were from half a Christian Fischer 73 48
season of PP usage.
Nick Merkley 72 43
 Despite consistent quarter-after-quarter ice
Carl Soderberg 55 42 Sleeper Pts %
time and PP usage (just over three minutes per
game), Keller hit a wall at the midpoint, managing Jakob Chychrun 53 42 Christian Dvorak 55 20%
just 17 points in the second half after getting 30 in Lawson Crouse 63 38 Nick Schmaltz 65 15%
the first half.
Victor Soderstrom 45 37 Barrett Hayton 55 10%
 Oesterle was very productive when he was
Alex Goligoski 47 35 Vinnie Hinostroza 57 10%
paired up with Goligoski. But that mostly happened
when Chychrun was injured. Overall, he saw 30% Kyle Capobianco 52 32 Jakob Chychrun 45 10%
of his ice time paired with Goli, and 53.8% of his Michael Grabner 50 30
ES points were earned during those shifts. On the
PP, they were always together and still very Jordan Oesterle 48 27
effective.
 The Coyotes were shut out three of their first four games last season and scored three goals in five games to kick off
the campaign. In a way, you could almost look at each player‟s stats based on 77 games instead of 82 because
something like that is probably not going to happen again.

Injury Alert: Two main cogs of the Coyotes moving forward, Raanta (knee) and Schmaltz (lower body), finished last
season on the IR after missing considerable time in the schedule, as did prospect Capobianco (leg) … Regarded as the
undisputed No.1 goalie going into last campaign, Raanta never got his game going and took to the crease in only 12
contests during the first half. He should be ready for camp … Acquired from the Blackhawks last November in exchange
for Dylan Strome and Brendan Perlini, Schmaltz did good in his time with Arizona by picking up 14 points in 17 outings
and is expected to play a big role in the Yotes‟ offense this year. In fact, so much so that he was awarded a seven-year
contract extension at an AAV of $5.85 million this offseason. In total, he missed the last 43 games but should be ready
for camp… Possibly the farm system‟s most improved prospect in 2018-19, Capobianco (7-25-32 in 40 AHL GP with
Tucson) was skating in just his second game of the season as a Coyote when he was ousted from action in February.
No word of any setbacks during the summer, so we should expect the 21-year-old to compete for a spot on this year‟s
blue line – a good skater and puck-mover, he has top-four potential according to multiple observers.
Goaltending: Raanta, 30, is one of the league‟s most talented goalies, yet his absence for most of 2018-19 was hardly
felt because of Kuemper‟s sizzling performance throughout. Standing tall, the 6-5 butterfly-style goalie put up a stingy
2.33 goals-against average and .925 save percentage in 55 assignments. Twenty-seven of those 55 games were wins,
as the Yotes finished barely out of the playoff picture in the West … Expecting a battle for the No.1 job this year? Some
will say that‟s a legit projection, as Kuemper, 29, truly was excellent last year, and anything can happen in the world of
pro hockey. It will all come down to Raanta‟s health. Can he stay healthy? If so, he‟s one of the best. Kuemper would
love the chance to repeat his brilliance and commit to a new contract before hitting UFA status in the summer of 2020.
For his part, Raanta is locked in contract-wise until 2021 … Big 6-6 rookie Hill is the third wheel in Arizona‟s goalie
department – he enjoyed a nice run in 13 first-half matchups (2.76 GAA) before finishing the year in Tucson (36 GP,
2.62 GAA). Dobber’s confidence in Raanta being the starter: 99%
Breakout Threshold: Schmaltz has 179 games under his belt and was already finding his stride when he tallied 17
points in 20 contests (70-point pace) before suffering an injury. He'll cross that 200-game threshold this season and is a
strong candidate to break out ... Dvorak (176 GP) may have fallen off the radar but put him back on. He'll hit the 200
games BT in November and is another great candidate to break through under this system.
Contract Year: As mentioned above, Kuemper‟s 2019-20 season will be telling in many ways. The late-blooming
netminder will not only be out to prove that last year was no fluke, but also because he‟ll be toiling for the biggest
contract of his playing career. Thrust into a starter‟s role for the first time as an NHLer last year, Kuemper sports solid
goals-against (2.50) and save percentage (.916) numbers over seven seasons and 186 games … Veterans Soderberg,
33, and Richardson, 34, will see decent ice time in their respective roles this season, but it‟s far from a guarantee that
general manager John Chayka will overturn all stones in order to keep them beyond this season, especially when we
consider the reconstruction movement that still permeates in Arizona. On. On good notes, each graybeard did record a
personal career-high in goals scored last year – Soderberg, with 29, and Richardson, 19 in just 66 GP. Don‟t expect
repeats, though …
Blocked Shots Hits
PIM: There‟s more howling than brawling done in
Niklas Hjalmarsson 163 Lawson Crouse 281
Arizona. One of the league‟s least penalized clubs,
the Yotes believe 6-4, 220-pound Crouse has lots Alex Goligoski 151 Ilya Lyubushkin 181
more to offer within the multiple facets of a power
Jordan Oesterle 122 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 160
forward‟s game. Just 22, the strapping winger posted
career highs in what was pretty much just his second Jakob Chychrun 97 Christian Fischer 114
full season in the NHL: 81 GP, 11-14-25, 67 PIM. Jason Demers 78 Jakob Chychrun 101
Chosen 11th overall in 2015, Crouse still has time on
his side if you believe the concept that bigger players Ilya Lyubushkin 77 Alex Goligoski 90
take longer to peak in the NHL. It seems like he‟s Oliver Ekman-Larsson 72 Jason Demers 82
been around for awhile but he has only dressed for
164 games in the big show … Ekman-Larsson is a Carl Soderberg 57 Christian Dvorak 79
consistent source for approx 45 points and 50 Derek Stepan 55 Vinnie Hinostroza 71
minutes if you need those numbers from the blue
line, while rookie Capobianco has thus far in his Christian Dvorak 49 Carl Soderberg 67
junior and AHL career shown the propensity to
combine decent points-PIM by accumulating over half a point and about one PIM per game.
Plus-Minus: Arizona wasn‟t bad at keeping the pucks out of the net, finishing seventh in the league last year. But they
were 26th in goals scored and as a result most of their key players were low (nine players below minus-7). Scoring should
be up this year with the addition of Kessel, the health of Schmaltz, and further growth from Keller, Dvorak and
Hinostroza. Look for minus-15 to be the low, with most players just below even. Hjalmarsson, Demers and Richardson
should again be in the positive, and possibly Hinostroza and Garland.

Dobber Advanced… COYOTES
 Hinostroza shoulders most of
the defensive responsibilities at
even strength and was great at it.
That‟s a good thing for Arizona,
but not so good in fantasy. He‟s
good enough to still get his points,
but this will drag the potential
down a bit.
 Schmaltz lost possession more
often than not and he faced the
big lines in the offensive zone.
Stepan, meanwhile, drove
possession very well when facing
the lesser lines. You may see
Stepan see more time on that top
line for offensive draws as a result
of this (with Kessel now here, this
could bump Stepan‟s numbers).
Stepan was also better at the
faceoff circle (as noted above).
 Garland had limited ice time,
but he made things happen. Along
with OEL, he had the darkest blue
bubble (i.e. drove possession)
 As a team, the shooting
percentage was low, therefore the
5on5 S% was low for many
players (chart below). A lot of
underperforming players ready to
rebound.
 The depth defensemen (bottom
pairing), as well as forwards
Archibald and Crouse struggled
the most with possession. They
did manage to get rid of Connauton, while letting Kempe and Archibald walk. Addition through subtraction here, along
with a healthy Chychrun, should help matters.
 Keller‟s CF% has been sub-49% for both of his NHL seasons now. The team can‟t continue to shelter him with these
minutes so he will need to find the light switch soon.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
NICK SCHMALTZ C 17 63.7 973 0.904 6.9 47.6 64.3 61 70.8 47.1 2.7
ALEX GALCHENYUK C 72 62.2 976 0.914 6.2 47.32 58.6 73.2 69 77.8 2.2
VINNIE HINOSTROZA C 72 39.6 987 0.918 6.9 50.98 24.2 83 85 71.4 2.1
CLAYTON KELLER C 82 66.2 982 0.914 6.8 48.52 66 64.4 60.9 70.4 1.9
CONOR GARLAND R 47 59 1007 0.947 6 53.5 45.8 60 75 42.9 1.8
RICHARD PANIK R 75 50.5 993 0.91 8.3 50.9 37 57.9 65.2 25 1.6
MICHAEL GRABNER R 41 34.4 964 0.914 5 47.07 1.6 72.7 58.3 0 1.6
DEREK STEPAN C 72 48.7 983 0.92 6.4 50.38 51.2 56.5 69 18.8 1.5
CHRISTIAN DVORAK L 20 52 985 0.916 6.9 46.29 24.9 63.6 60 100 1.5
BRAD RICHARDSON R 66 34.7 1003 0.93 7.3 49.53 4.8 64.3 65.6 0 1.5

Boston BRUINS
Brad Marchand 77 39 94 65 Patrice Bergeron 69 31 75 30 David Pastrnak 74 38 86 36

Jake DeBrusk 69 26 46 18 David Krejci 75 21 60 14 Karson Kuhlman 58 9 17 8
Danton Heinen 77 17 42 16 Charlie Coyle 76 14 43 24 David Backes 52 8 19 37
Joakim Nordstrom 75 5 13 12 Sean Kuraly 70 9 21 36 Chris Wagner 68 11 17 44
Anders Bjork 29 3 9 4 Par Lindholm 57 4 20 20 Brett Ritchie 42 5 8 34
Peter Cehlarik 22 2 5 4
Torey Krug 74 8 61 30 Zdeno Chara 70 6 16 65 Tuukka Rask 49 29 4

Charlie McAvoy 64 9 39 52 Matt Grzelcyk 71 4 29 59 Jaroslav Halak 38 21 3
Brandon Carlo 77 3 16 50 Connor Clifton 70 5 13 52
John Moore 59 5 14 26 Kevan Miller 55 1 12 50
Restricted Free Agents: McAvoy, Carlo, Forsbacka Karlsson (SHL)
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Jake DeBrusk – A great all-around player who is developing nicely and improving steadily every
year – a prognosticator‟s dream because it makes it easy. Barring sudden chemistry on a line with two superstars,
DeBrusk‟s upside when it comes to points is limited (see chart). But he‟s a safe pick who will eventually give you points in
the low-50s each and every year. He also has untapped potential in the Hits department, easily capable of throwing 120
of them per year. But last season he took his foot off the pedal in that respect, managing just 66 Hits in both regular
season and playoffs. In 2017-18 he had 100 combined. The dropoff is a concern in multi-cat leagues, but my expectation
is that the norm will be the rookie mark and not the sophomore output. He also seems to be injured just enough to miss
10 games each season, and until that changes do not count on this guy for 80 games.
 Marchand‟s penalty minutes dropped off in a Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %

huge way in the second half (full-season pace of Brad Marchand 100 85 Karson Kuhlman 80%
34 PIM) and remained low in the playoffs. Usually
the postseason doesn‟t slow his prolific PIM rate so David Pastrnak 98 83 Connor Clifton 75%
it‟s possible that his coach got through to him and Patrice Bergeron 85 68 Peter Cehlarik CUT
he smartened up. This is why his projected PIM
David Krejci 73 63 Anders Bjork CUT
are down – and they may even dip lower so watch
for that. It also could explain his stronger second Torey Krug 67 62 Jack Studnicka CUT
half versus first half (56 points vs. 44). Jakub Lauko 72 55
 Once Bjork plays 30 games in the NHL he will Jack Studnicka 70 55
need to clear waivers before being sent down. If he
Danton Heinen 68 52
makes the team, those first 29 games will
determine if he‟s ready. Charlie Coyle 68 50
 It was a down year for Heinen as a sophomore, Charlie McAvoy 60 48

but that was due to a slow start in which he Jake DeBrusk 67 48
managed just 10 points in 40 games. After that he
J. Forsbacka Karlsson 63 47 Sleeper Pts %
had 24 in 37, which is a 53-point second-half pace.
Anders Bjork 70 43 Matt Grzelcyk 38 20%
 While Marchand surged in the second half,
somehow is linemate Bergeron dipped by 33% in Trent Frederic 65 39 Danton Heinen 53 15%
the second half. Not sure how to explain that one, Matt Grzelcyk 45 37 Charlie Coyle 50 15%
but if part of Boston‟s second-half philosophy shift
Zach Senyshyn 63 37 Peter Cehlarik 42 10%
included Bergeron playing more conservative while
Marchand and Pastrnak applied the pressure, you Peter Cehlarik 63 35 Jake DeBrusk 55 10%
may see this continue in 2019-20. Because it Karson Kuhlman 55 32
worked – the team made it to the Final.
Axel Andersson 55 32
 When Pastrnak was hurt: Krejci had 20 points
in 16 games, Marchand had 22, DeBrusk 15 and Heinen 13.
 When Bergeron was hurt: Krejci had 14 points in 16 games, Marchand had 16, Backes eight and Heinen three.

Injury Alert: The injury bug wasn‟t kind to Boston last season, especially in the playoffs when a spate of Bruins missed
crucial time in their seven-game series against the Cup-winning Blues. Most important during that particular juncture in
time were Grzelcyk‟s concussion and Chara‟s broken jaw. On top of the five-to-six-week recovery timeline for the jaw,
Chara also underwent offseason elbow surgery to remove loose fragments. Both he and Grzelcyk should be in camp …
Blueline mate Miller (fractured knee cap, larynx and hand, to name but three) dressed for only 39 matchups all season,
and none in the playoffs, while Moore, Clifton, Acciari, and Wagner were all knocked out for various ailments and unable
to finish in the final drive to the Cup. Fortunately, all are expected healthy for upcoming camp. UPDATE: Moore will miss
the start of the season (shoulder) … Aside from more minor injuries sustained during the season, McAvoy (20 games),
DeBrusk (nine GP) and Krug (six GP) most notably missed time because of concussion, while Bergeron and Pastrnak were
MIA for 16 games each because of a rib and thumb injury, respectively. All of the above are expected to be hampered
because of them going into 2019-20…Backes has a mystery injury that the Bruins are vague in describing. It “may”
require surgery but they will wait until training camp before deciding. Smells like a bit of a cap move on a player they
don‟t really want in their lineup, but either way – he‟s too big of a risk for fantasy right now.
Goaltending: Thirty-four-year-old Halak has enjoyed an excellent career in the NHL. He‟s been more than just
serviceable – acting as a top-notch, go-to guy at times, and the perfect, veteran backup during others. While the same
scenario unfolded last season, the net in Boston is clearly Rask‟s and he once again proved it with a sizzling, almost-
Conn-Smythe-winning show in the postseason. Tied for third in team goals-against, Boston‟s tandem of Rask and Halak
is top-three in the league and there‟s no reason to think otherwise heading into 2019-20. In fact, here‟s another crease
situation where a timeshare gig appears to be the adopted plan, and statistics back it up. Rask: 46 GP, 27-13-5, 2.48,
.912; Halak: 40 GP, 22-11-4, 2.34, .922 … Acquired via the UFA route on July 1, Maxime Lagace, formerly with Vegas
and Dallas, looks to be the first callup in line, while 21-year-old Czech Dan Vladar, who continues to hone his craft,
should share the net with him in Providence (AHL). Maine (HE) sophomore Jeremy Swayman is the club‟s most promising
prospect at the position. Dobber’s confidence in Rask being the starter: 100%
Breakout Threshold: Heinen (162 GP) had a rough second year which will cause many to overlook him. He will cross
200 games in January, so it would not be a surprised to see a strong second half as he gets his career back on track …
Keep an eye on DeBrusk, who sits at 138 now. He won‟t hit 200 games played until late in the year but could be a factor
if he hits his stride a bit early. More likely he will take a big step forward in 2020-21.
Contract Year: General manager Don Sweeney has his work cut out for him at the negotiating table in 2019-20. Krug,
Coyle and Halak are all integral parts of the Bruins‟ current makeup and headed for UFA status next summer, as are role
players Wagner, Miller and Nordstrom. Same with Chara, although it‟s he that now pretty much decides about signing
one-year contracts, or not … Sweeney‟s work doesn‟t stop there, either, as DeBrusk, Grzelcyk, Ritchie, and prospects
Bjork, Senyshyn, Zboril, Lauzon will be needing new deals as RFA.
PIM: Long-gone are the days of the Big Bad Bruins, Blocked Shots Hits
right? Well, sorta. In today‟s NHL, Beantown‟s boys
are still a rambunctious bunch, as hometown fans Brandon Carlo 103 Chris Wagner 220
wouldn‟t have it any other way, eh. Second in team Zdeno Chara 99 Brandon Carlo 143
penalty minutes, the Bruins also racked up 27
majors. Only the Rangers bested them in both Charlie McAvoy 93 Connor Clifton 137
categories. The Rangers? Agh, we‟ll get to them later Kevan Miller 89 Sean Kuraly 127
– so, back to the Bruins. No surprise, Marchand led
John Moore 85 Charlie McAvoy 124
the team in penalty minutes with 96 – just two extra
minor penalties and he would have finished with 100 Torey Krug 73 David Backes 118
points and 100 PIM. Now, no matter how much some
Matt Grzelcyk 71 Kevan Miller 113
people say they hate him, that‟s great fantasy
hockey value. Serving up half-a-point and one PIM Connor Clifton 60 Brett Ritchie 94
per game from the blue line is 21-year-old McAvoy – Charlie Coyle 60 John Moore 93
he just needs to start playing full seasons, which he
hasn‟t been able to yet since entering the league Joakim Nordstrom 56 Joakim Nordstrom 92
during the 2016-17 playoffs. At 42, captain Chara
has mellowed a tad but it‟s still not a good idea to get him riled up – he put up 57 PIM in 62 contests. Grzelcyk, who
amassed 68 penalty minutes, possesses above-average skating and puckhandling skills but seems like he‟ll top off as a
35-point defender. As for him, Wagner posted career-highs in goals (12) and PIM (51) but he‟ll never escape a bottom-
six role.
Plus-Minus: Other than Krug (minus-2) and a couple of prospects, the Bruins got rid of all their players who had a
negative plus-minus. Six players were plus-10 or better: Bergeron, Chara, Carlo, Marchand, McAvoy, and Heinen.
Everyone else was between even and plus-9 and there is no reason to believe anything will change here with them.

Dobber Advanced… BRUINS
 The chart looks a lot different
last year versus 2017-18. Most
notably, the Kuraly line
shouldered even more of a
defensive role. Rather than
being restricted to only facing
the weaker lines, they were
used against most lines. They
got beat a lot more doing this,
but the net gain made it
worthwhile. Read on.
 This freed up Bergeron and
the big line to take more
faceoffs in the offensive zone.
The result was career or near-
career seasons for all three of
them.
 DeBrusk, Krejci and Krug
were given sheltered minutes,
and judging by their possession
numbers, it looks like they can
be trusted more.
 Krug was used a lot more
offensively at even strength
than McAvoy. A lot more. Until
Krug leaves next summer via
free agency, don‟t expect a
sudden surge from McAvoy.
 McAvoy‟s IPP is startlingly
low (below). When the team
scores and he‟s on the ice, he‟s
not often part of creating the
goal. It looks as though the
early part of his career will be
spent rounding out the defensive aspects of his game. It could be several years before he blossoms offensively, or
maybe only two. But it won‟t be this year.
 Grzelcyk has just over 100 games under his belt and yet he‟s logging the third-most defensive minutes behind
McAvoy and Chara. He‟s even trusted more than Carlo.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
DAVID PASTRNAK R 66 62.9 1011 0.913 9.8 55.17 69.1 75 76.2 73.3 3.9
PATRICE BERGERON C 65 58.9 1018 0.912 10.6 56.73 66.2 69.3 71.4 61.4 3.9
BRAD MARCHAND C 79 61.1 1016 0.921 9.5 54.82 65.9 74.6 78.7 65.4 3.9
DAVID KREJCI C 81 62.6 1015 0.924 9.1 55.98 46.9 78.5 82.6 66.7 3.1
JAKE DEBRUSK L 68 63.4 1012 0.93 8.2 55.86 55.9 56.8 72.1 35.5 2.3
TOREY KRUG D 64 65.9 1016 0.941 7.5 53.95 75.6 55.8 44.2 69.8 2.3
DANTON HEINEN C 77 55.3 1026 0.95 7.6 52.94 28.5 65.4 71.1 50 1.9
CHARLIE MCAVOY D 54 54.2 1001 0.901 10 54.68 34 38.9 39.1 33.3 1.4
DAVID BACKES R 70 46.4 1015 0.964 5.1 53.75 35.7 48.8 54.2 41.2 1.3
SEAN KURALY C 71 33.4 1000 0.949 5.1 49.74 1.2 75 75 0 1.3

Buffalo SABRES
Jeff Skinner 81 33 60 34 Jack Eichel 73 29 82 28 Sam Reinhart 81 23 63 16

Jimmy Vesey 80 20 42 28 Evan Rodrigues 73 12 36 24 Marcus Johansson 64 16 38 10
Conor Sheary 73 13 28 14 Vladimir Sobotka 68 7 18 32 Casey Mittelstadt 78 14 28 18
Victor Olofsson 74 17 34 16 Johan Larsson 74 6 17 39 Kyle Okposo 72 15 28 35
Zemgus Girgensons 73 5 20 20 Jean-Sebastian Dea 10 1 3 2 Tage Thompson 50 10 17 12
Scott Wilson 12 1 3 2 Curtis Lazar 10 0 3 4
Rasmus Dahlin 81 11 50 40 Ras. Ristolainen 77 6 47 45 Linus Ullmark 41 20 2

Zach Bogosian 55 2 17 34 Brandon Montour 68 7 38 36 Carter Hutton 45 19 1
Marco Scandella 72 6 19 25 Colin Miller 69 8 36 51
Jake McCabe 63 4 18 26 Henri Jokiharju 28 1 12 8
Lawrence Pilut 28 2 9 10 Matt Hunwick 0 0 0 0

Restricted Free Agents: Ullmark, McCabe
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Casey Mittelstadt – It was a miserable rookie campaign for Mittelstadt, who struggled
statistically in both the regular numbers and the fancy ones. Things didn‟t get improve for him as the season wore on
either, as he was minus-14 in the last 22 games. With the depth that the Sabres acquired in the summer, do not be
surprised if Mittelstadt goes to the AHL for the first half and tries to regain his confidence. He needs to play 77 more NHL
games in order to stop being exempt from waivers, so the Sabres have even more incentive to have him play at least a
few AHL games (this way they can have flexibility with him even in 2020-21). Mittelstadt could potentially be the Marleau
to Eichel‟s Thornton in the long term, but the Sabres can‟t ruin him. We‟ve seen it from teams so many times historically:
a player is rushed, he struggles, and then never comes close to his upside. Do not lose hope on Mittelstadt, and do not
be discouraged if he gets sent down. Trust me – that would be a good thing.
 Dahlin gained confidence quickly. He only took Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
29 shots on goal in the first quarter, but had at Jack Eichel 110 87 Casey Mittelstadt 50%
least 46 in each quarter thereafter. Production
went up accordingly. Sam Reinhart 78 72 Victor Olofsson 40%
Dylan Cozens 80 62 Henri Jokiharju 40%
 Dahlin did, however, have just eight points in
20 games after Montour arrived. They were initially Jeff Skinner 78 60 Dylan Cozens CUT
partnered up, but it wasn‟t working. Dahlin does Rasmus Dahlin 78 60 Lawrence Pilut Inj
well without having to worry about Montour‟s
offensive tendencies so who Dahlin is paired up Casey Mittelstadt 77 52
with will matter greatly. Ristolainen had just seven Jimmy Vesey 70 50
points in those 20 games, but he wasn‟t paired with
Rasmus Ristolainen 60 48
Montour and that is likely just a coincidence.
Brandon Montour 60 48
 One of the biggest dropoffs in the entire league
came from Skinner, who had 42 points in his first Victor Olofsson 73 47
43 games. He had 21 points in the last 39 contests. Henri Jokiharju 65 45
He played with Eichel throughout – so a linemate
Tage Thompson 72 43 Sleeper Pts %
change was not the reason for this. The reason is:
Skinner was shooting at an unsustainable 21% clip Rasmus Asplund 62 42 Jimmy Vesey 55 20%
in the first half. He took the same number of shots C.J. Smith 68 39 Victor Olofsson 45 15%
in the second half, but a proper amount of them
went in (rather than the crazy rate of the first half). Evan Rodrigues 60 37 Dylan Cozens 50 10%
Colin Miller 52 35 Brandon Montour 52 10%
 With his linemate coming back to earth, Eichel‟s
assists went from 34 in the first half to 20 in the Conor Sheary 65 30
second half. His goal scoring stayed consistent. Lawrence Pilut 55 30
 As a hulking 6-6 forward, Thompson needs Kyle Okposo 58 30
time. He shouldn‟t be drafted this year or next. But
it will eventually come (see the BT article earlier in this Guide). When he was sent to the AHL for eight games between
February and March, he scored six goals and had nine points in eight games with Rochester. The talent needs to catch up
to his size.
 Although Olofsson was sent to the minors, it was strictly a paper move and he will be in the starting lineup. Do not
make the mistake of dropping him (and pick him up if some sucker in your pool did drop him)
Injury Alert: None of them will cause fantasy hockey ripples, but it‟s on the blue line that Sabres‟ doctors were most
busy because of injury in 2019-20. For starters, unlucky vet Bogosian had to once more undergo hip surgery in the
offseason – for a second summer in a row – and was expected to need five-to-six months to recover. Now 29, the 2008
third-overall pick hasn‟t played more than 65 in any season since his sophomore gig in 2009-10. He‟s no offensive
juggernaut but last season‟s 65 outings did produce decent peripherals in blocks (116) and hits (83) to go along with 19
points … Acquired at last year‟s Trade Deadline, Montour sprained his MCL during the most-recent IIHF World
Championship in May and was facing a six-week recovery timeline – he‟ll be ready for camp … Expected to contend for an
offensive role on the blue line, Pilut, also acquired during last year‟s Deadline, had successful shoulder surgery last May.
He, too, was given a five-to-six month resting period. He was seen skating (no hitting) in late June at the Sabres Dev
camp but may not be ready for opening night … Since we‟re on the topic of the team‟s Dev camp, seventh-overall pick
Cozens injured his thumb at the event in early July, underwent surgery, and was deemed out for two-to-three months.
Update: he is ready for camp … Usually quite durable, new acquisition Johansson hopes to renew with a healthy season
in Buffalo after skating in only 87 regular-season matchups over the last two years combined. UPDATE: Montour is out
for the entire preseason with a lower-body injury. Sounds semi-serious and my guess is that some regular season games
will be missed.
Goaltending: While the Sabres hope Ullmark eventually takes command of the position, we will most likely see another
timeshare situation in Buffalo‟s net this season. Headed for just his second full season as an NHLer, Ullmark just turned
26, which is considered the most common age for a goalie to reach peak performance. He possesses the size (6-4) and
attributes to hold a No.1 job in the NHL, while Hutton would thrive in a veteran‟s backup role. Signed as a UFA from St.
Louis in the summer of 2018, Hutton‟s goals-against average jumped up nearly a goal‟s worth last season (from 2.09 in
2017-18, to 3.00), as he took to the net in 50 contests compared to Ullmark‟s 37 … „The Hamburglar‟, Andrew
Hammond, lingers about as insurance in the minors, while second-round pick in 2017, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, is the
organization‟s jewel at the position. Named the OHL‟s top goalie in 2018-19, Luukkonen – 38-11-2, 2.50 GAA, .920 save
percentage for Sudbury – underwent hip surgery this past April but was reported to be on the right track of recovery
soon thereafter. He‟ll be polishing his craft in Buffalo‟s farm system as soon as he‟s ready to occupy the crease again in
the fall. Dobber’s confidence in Hutton being the starter: 60%
Breakout Threshold: Ristolainen achieved 400 career games last year and completed his fourth-straight campaign with
40 or more points. However, it should be noted his ice time and usage on the power play decreased in the second half
with the emergence of Dahlin. An increase is not expected for Ristolainen … Vesey (6-3, 199) barely qualifies as a big
forward, so it should be noted he reached 200-game BT threshold for regular-sized players at the mid-point of last year.
He suffered a terrible finish but was producing at a 43-point pace over the first three quarters.
Contract Year: General manager Jason Botterill has

definitely put his stamp on the team the last two Blocked Shots Hits
seasons with a plethora of personnel changes. And Rasmus Ristolainen 132 Rasmus Ristolainen 213
that looks to continue as he continues to aim at a
playoff berth for his young squad. No less than 10 Brandon Montour 120 Zemgus Girgensons 134
players will be eligible for UFA status if they are not Zach Bogosian 104 Colin Miller 124
signed before July of 2020. While eight of them are
Jake McCabe 98 Jake McCabe 120
settling in as NHL role players and not indispensable,
Vesey and Sheary still possess a level of untapped Marco Scandella 91 Johan Larsson 111
upside that could lead each to a fatter paycheck next
Rasmus Dahlin 79 Rasmus Dahlin 105
summer. Sobotka, Girgensons, Larsson, Wilson,
Bogosian, Scandella, Hunwick, and Nelson complete Colin Miller 65 Brandon Montour 98
the aforementioned group of 10 … Botterill‟s job is Jack Eichel 48 Vladimir Sobotka 96
not finished, either, when we consider that Reinhart,
Mittelstadt, Montour, and Pilut to a lesser extent, all Johan Larsson 44 Jimmy Vesey 82
vital cogs of the rebuild, will need new deals as RFA. Sam Reinhart 42 Tage Thompson 80
PIM: The KeyBank Center isn‟t the scariest place for

opposing teams to visit, as the Sabres were the third-least penalized unit in 2018-19. Aside from Bogosian, who led club
with 52 penalty minutes in 65 contests, blue line mate Montour (82 GP, 58-27-35, 56 PIM) shows some pushback and
couples it with potential for points. That‟s dependent on usage in offensive situations, though, which isn‟t a sure bet when
the blue line also aligns future superstar Dahlin, as well as Ristolainen, Miller and Jokiharju. The latter three are right-
handed shots, like Montour, and have also shown the ability to skate on a power play in the NHL. Something will surely
give here soon.
Plus-Minus: The Sabres are an improved team, there‟s no question, but if you‟re looking for players who won‟t hurt the
plus-minus category, you‟re probably smart enough to know that you won‟t get it here. Until Buffalo lands a legit top
goaltender, this will continue to be a problem. Ristolainen‟s eye-popping minus-41 won‟t happen but you‟ll still see
several Sabres close to that minus-20 mark, with most of them being between minus-10 and even.

Dobber Advanced… SABRES
 Mittelstadt‟s bubble location
and color is extremely unsettling.
Even as a rookie. The sheltering
is normal – weakest opposition,
mostly offensive zone starts. And
the sheltering is as extreme as it
gets in the NHL. So his still losing
possession tells me he should be
in the AHL for a full season. The
only plus is the chart below, that
indicates he has been reasonably
productive relative to his ice time,
and is a big part of creating goals
(IPP) when they are scored.
 The Sabres were leaning on
Ristolainen, McCabe and
Scandella defensively. The trio
struggled, explaining why the
Sabres revamped their defense in
the offseason.
 Girgensons and Larsson do a
great job as checking-line
forwards, but sticking out like a
sore thumb is Sobotka. If
Rodrigues of newcomer
Johansson takes on that role,
things will improve. But that
would obviously act as a drag on
the production of either player.
 The Sabres were careful with
the minutes of both Dahlin, as a
rookie, and Sheary, who is small
and not strong defensively. Both
players shone under that
deployment.
 Okposo is getting sheltered minutes as well as more defensive ones. If you were holding out hope that he will turn
things around and start scoring again, it‟s time to give that up. In fact, if he was a free agent he would be lucky to sign
for a league-minimum contract these days.
 It was only 20 games, but Montour made a very promising impression. He‟s been a possession driver, and his IPP was
actually higher than Dahlin‟s at both even strength and on the power play.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
JACK EICHEL C 77 63.2 993 0.904 8.9 51.18 69.8 73.2 73.7 72.2 3.1
SAM REINHART C 82 61.5 1000 0.918 8.2 51.64 64.1 64.4 72.5 46.9 2.5
JEFF SKINNER C 82 66.3 1011 0.917 9.4 52.35 61.8 58.9 61 53.3 2.5
CONOR SHEARY L 78 70.5 980 0.915 6.5 50.84 33.9 65.4 75.7 40 1.8
KYLE OKPOSO R 78 47.4 1000 0.93 7 47.64 38.9 58 52.9 68.8 1.6
EVAN RODRIGUES C 74 40.1 991 0.918 7.3 51.59 27.2 55.8 56.4 40 1.5
RASMUS DAHLIN D 82 57.4 999 0.926 7.3 51.95 57.2 46.3 35.8 71.4 1.5
BRANDON MONTOUR D 20 48.1 997 0.926 7.1 49.63 35.6 51.5 48.3 75 1.4
CASEY MITTELSTADT C 77 71.7 981 0.907 7.4 48.48 35.6 53.2 46.9 66.7 1.4
RAS. RISTOLAINEN D 78 46.3 975 0.908 6.7 47.99 59.1 48.3 44.1 58.6 1.3

Calgary FLAMES
Johnny Gaudreau 79 29 91 26 Sean Monahan 78 29 78 16 Elias Lindholm 78 19 72 22

Matthew Tkachuk 75 32 73 65 Mikael Backlund 80 22 48 60 Michael Frolik 72 15 34 31
Sam Bennett 78 13 33 73 Mark Jankowski 79 19 40 24 Austin Czarnik 71 12 33 18
Andrew Mangiapane 66 13 22 34 Derek Ryan 79 14 37 24 Milan Lucic 79 10 26 85
Dillon Dube 50 7 16 18 Alan Quine 18 2 6 4
Mark Giordano 80 16 60 64 TJ Brodie 78 9 37 24 Cam Talbot 53 29 2

Travis Hamonic 64 5 18 52 Noah Hanifin 80 6 39 16 David Rittich 35 21 1
R. Andersson 80 5 28 34 Oliver Kylington 67 4 21 22
Alexander Yelesin 20 0 3 16 Juuso Valimaki 11 0 4 4
Restricted Free Agents: Tkachuk, Mangiapane
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Noah Hanifin – I‟ll never completely close the door on a talented defenseman‟s offensive upside
until they have 400 games under his belt, and Hanifin is at 319. Theoretically, his breakout season would happen in
2020-21. However, the Flames have Giordano entrenched as the offensive leader from the blue line, and when he starts
to fade, they have Andersson, Valimaki and Kylington on the way. Hanifin has reasonably high upside, but my confidence
that he will ever get there is somewhat low. This is simply due to the timing of the prospects who are on the way. Hanifin
looks like he‟ll top out as a two-way, second-pairing guy who can contribute points the way a Brent Seabrook contributes
points – steady at around 40, with perhaps a one-off later in his career at 48 or 50.
 Ryan tallied 26 points in the second half (39 Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
games) after starting with 12 in 42. This is either Johnny Gaudreau 115 97 Andrew Mangiapane 99%
because he had chemistry with Mangiapane, who
was recalled around the midpoint of the season, or Sean Monahan 93 80 Juuso Valimaki INJ
because his linemate in the first half – Neal – was Matthew Tkachuk 90 77 Dillon Dube CUT
holding him down. Let‟s say it‟s a little from
Elias Lindholm 90 75 Alexander Yelesin CUT
Column A and a little from Column B.
Jakob Pelletier 72 50 Oliver Kylington 90%
 Andersson had 15 points in his last 35 games,
which is a 35-point pace. His ice time increased by Mark Giordano 75 48 Eetu Tuulola 10%
two minutes per game and he started seeing time Mikael Backlund 63 48
on the second PP unit.
Andrew Mangiapane 73 47
 The first line was elite in the first half and the Oliver Kylington 58 45
Flames really soared – Gaudreau had an eye-
popping 64 points in 44 games to start. In the Juuso Valimaki 62 43
second half, the team continued to soar but this Mark Jankowski 72 42
time it was on the backs of their secondary players.
Sam Bennett 63 42 Sleeper Pts %
The Backlund, Jankowski and Ryan lines each really
stepped up. Matthew Phillips 77 40 Andrew Mangiapane 48 15%
 Czarnik had 10 points in 35 games (0.29) with Rasmus Andersson 53 40 Mark Jankowski 50 15%
Neal in the lineup (often on his line). He had eight Noah Hanifin 52 38 Rasmus Andersson 40 15%
points in 19 games (0.42) with Neal sidelined.
Derek Ryan 60 37 Sam Bennett 45 10%
 Jankowski had 28 points in his last 61 games TJ Brodie 50 36 Austin Czarnik 40 10%
without any power-play time. As a big (6-4)
forward, he will need a lot more games under his Dillon Dube 72 35
belt before seeing his possible breakout season. Austin Czarnik 65 35
He‟s played 152 games (expected threshold for him
is 400). But in the meantime, a 40-point season is great output while we wait on him.
 Tkachuk is not close in his contract negotiations. Given that his father, Keith, was a tough negotiator and a guy who
held out for a better contract, this one is going to cut into the season. How far? Who knows. But last year with William
Nylander, it went until December. William‟s father Michal also held out for a contract back in the 90s. Just a theory, but if
the father is a stubborn and tough negotiator, one would think that the son is following similar advice.

Injury Alert: The Flames were relieved when top defensive prospect Valimaki returned from a severe high-ankle sprain
sustained in November to star with Stockton of the AHL for 20 games in the last quarter. From there, Valimaki returned
to claim the spot he had earned earlier in the season on the Flames‟ blue line for two contests in the postseason‟s first
round. Still a rookie, the young Finn has all the makings of an all-purpose, top-pairing defender in the NHL … Valimaki‟s
28 games on the shelf were surpassed only by the 49 assignments missed by veteran Stone, who was diagnosed with a
blood clot on November. Stone played in only 14 games all season but finished the season on a healthy note … There‟s
nothing else out of the ordinary to report from the Saddledome‟s infirmary except Rittich‟s end-of-season declaration of a
knee injury that hampered him from January on. We‟ll assume a summer off will take care of that…Valimaki tore his ACL
in development camp and surgery is required. Expect him to be sidelined until late February and then play several weeks
in the AHL before joining Calgary down the stretch (if we‟re lucky).
Goaltending: Aside from a standout showing in the five-game loss to Colorado last postseason, as well as a good first-
half before injury in 2017-18, 37-year-old Mike Smith, now with Edmonton, struggled in providing the Flames with
consistent goaltending during his two campaigns with the team. So, why the hoopla that newcomer Talbot is a
downgrade? Sure, 2018-19 especially was a difficult season for the 31-year-old Talbot, but who would have done better
in the tire-fire that were the Oilers? A durable, workhorse goalie, Talbot should rebound on a more structured team in
Calgary than the one we‟ve seen up North recently … And let‟s not forget Rittich here. Despite playing with a knee injury
during last year‟s second-half, the late-blooming Czech put up excellent numbers across the board: 27-9-5, 2.61 goals-
against average, .911 save percentage … Speaking of that future in net, AHLers Gillies and Parsons, both highly-regarded
when drafted, are still working on finding their niche a couple of years later … Meanwhile, the Flames hope they‟ve found
a hidden gem in Artyom Zagidulin, who was signed from Magnitogorsk of the KHL after posting a 1.96 GAA and .924
SV% in 25 games last year. Dobber’s confidence in Talbot being the starter: 55%
Breakout Threshold: Ryan (234 GP) produced at a 55-point pace in the second half last year as he crossed the 200-
game mark. The talent is there but it‟s difficult to envision Ryan sustaining that production if he continues to play a
bottom-six role … Tkachuk enjoyed a breakout year a year earlier than expected. He now sits at 224 career GP and
should be considered at his peak … Gaudreau also had an early breakout campaign, as he is approaching the 400-game
BT for smaller players. He, too, should be considered at his max output.
Contract Year: If it‟s true that the year leading into unrestricted free agency is a highly-motivating one for an athlete,
then a slew of solid, veteran support players should be helping lead the Flames to greater heights this season. If not as
regular on-ice contributors, then as bait by the time the next annual Trade Deadline comes about. For starters, general
manager Brad Treliving will need to decide which of Brodie, Hamonic and Stone will keep patrolling the club‟s deep blue
line corps beyond 2019-20. Now an area of strength thanks to the emergence of 2018-19 rookies Valimaki, Andersson
and Kylington, Treliving will quite possibly use at least two of those still-effective vets to round out other areas of his
young, contending team, as well as create some cap
space. Up front, Frolik, Czarnik and Quine are all in Blocked Shots Hits
the same UFA boat. Keep an eye on Czarnik, he‟s a
sleeper … Treliving will also have some work to do Mark Giordano 162 Milan Lucic 237
with RFA Jankowski, Andersson, Kylington, and Travis Hamonic 140 Sam Bennett 129
Gillies, all soon due for new deals.
Juuso Valimaki 116 Matthew Tkachuk 107
PIM: Looch! Not an overly physical team, the Flames Michael Stone 103 Elias Lindholm 94
went out and acquired one of the league‟s top
TJ Brodie 94 Michael Stone 93
enforcers, if not the most-feared one, by sending
2018 free-agent acquisition, James Neal, to the Noah Hanifin 91 Noah Hanifin 87
Oilers for Lucic, another veteran that‟s been
Rasmus Andersson 85 Mark Giordano 69
struggling of late. Still only 31, Lucic may rebound to
some extent with the Flames. Instead of being Mark Jankowski 56 Andrew Mangiapane 63
expected to skate alongside super-speedster Connor Oliver Kylington 51 Juuso Valimaki 63
McDavid stride per stride, he‟ll most likely settle in
with the club‟s deep bottom-six forward group, add Elias Lindholm 41 Travis Hamonic 56
leadership and even see some slot power-play time
on occasion. And, of course, he‟ll relish the role of team cop. Just be Milan Lucic … Lucic‟s 91 penalty minutes in
Edmonton would have finished second on the Flames, but just one minor penalty‟s-worth behind gritty Bennett‟s 93 PIM.
The former fourth-overall has yet to translate the power of his junior hockey offense to the NHL, but he‟s obviously
skilled, still only 23, and old-school tough. More realistic at this point would be to expect 45-50 points and around 100
PIM preseason as he grows into a valuable niche … Twenty-one-year-old Tkachuk, 34-43-77, 62 PIM in 80 matchups will
continue to offer one of the league‟s best points-PIM combos for years to come, while Norris Trophy winner Giordano (74
points, 69 PIM) should have a couple more efforts of such value in him.
Plus-Minus: This is a great team when it comes to players that will help the plus-minus category. And the other two
players in the negative? Valimaki is only getting better, while Bennett was the victim of poor puck luck in his own zone
(just a .905 5on5 SV% when he was on the ice). That being said, expecting four players to achieve plus-29 or better
again is a little much. Most players between plus-10 and plus-20 is quite a reasonable expectation here.

Dobber Advanced… FLAMES
 Right off the bat, without
knowing anything about his stats,
you can see why Giordano won
the Norris Trophy. He faced the
toughest of the tough for
competition and came away
smelling like a rose. Beautiful
possession numbers to go along
with his beautiful regular stats.
 The second line of Tkachuk,
Backlund and Frolik was
phenomenal, driving possession
and creating chances as well as –
or better than – the top line.
 Czarnik is a better possession
player than Neal, his PTS/60 was
better (Neal‟s was 1.2 and didn‟t
make it onto the Top 10 chart),
and his IPP was better (Neal‟s was
50.0). Signing Neal was a huge
mistake and it cost Czarnik in a
big way. Czarnik will need to
overcome the Neal obstacle if he
wants to forge a successful NHL
career.
 Mangiapane was better than
both Neal and Czarnik, according
to the possession numbers.
 Jankowski‟s 5on5 S% was low,
indicating poor puck luck. This
indicates improved numbers in the
coming campaign.
 I was surprised and disappointed to see Andersson‟s bubble as such a dark brown in this chart, considering where the
bubble is located (i.e. in the most sheltered position in the diagram). It makes me a lot more cautious in where I project
him for the season ahead. He‟s not going to earn the coach‟s trust if he gives up possession at this rate. He did have a
strong final quarter of the season but unfortunately, I‟m unable to look at these numbers within that timeframe to
confirm that they‟ve improved.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
JOHNNY GAUDREAU L 82 56.9 1011 0.905 10.6 54.45 61.3 75.6 79.8 64.3 3.6
SEAN MONAHAN C 78 57 1003 0.898 10.5 53.67 60.7 67.8 74.7 54.8 3.3
MATTHEW TKACHUK L 80 55.3 996 0.908 8.8 56.92 58.3 71.3 76.8 61.5 3.3
ELIAS LINDHOLM C 81 55.9 1017 0.913 10.4 55.54 59.3 61.9 61.5 68.4 2.9
MICHAEL FROLIK R 65 52.5 1019 0.928 9.2 56.33 1.3 65.4 64 0 2.3
MARK GIORDANO D 78 51.4 1019 0.914 10.5 57.34 60.5 51.7 51.6 51.2 2.3
MIKAEL BACKLUND C 77 53 1019 0.932 8.7 55.35 30.1 59.5 61.4 33.3 2
DEREK RYAN C 81 46.2 1026 0.941 8.5 54.6 31 67.9 67.5 63.6 2
MARK JANKOWSKI C 79 52.7 982 0.91 7.2 51.44 4.3 78 82.8 0 1.9
AUSTIN CZARNIK C 54 50.7 992 0.909 8.3 54.92 26 69.2 65.2 100 1.8

Carolina HURRICANES
Nino Niederreiter 76 30 59 38 Sebastian Aho 81 31 86 24 A. Svechnikov 82 30 56 68

Teuvo Teravainen 81 22 73 16 Erik Haula 68 23 45 38 Ryan Dzingel 76 22 46 30
Warren Foegele 79 15 28 30 Jordan Staal 68 16 39 32 Brock McGinn 76 13 30 18
Jordan Martinook 80 11 23 42 Lucas Wallmark 81 12 31 40 Martin Necas 60 9 28 18
Brian Gibbons 45 7 16 14 Janne Kuokkanen 24 2 6 4 Saku Maenalanen 0 0 0 0

Jaccob Slavin 82 7 37 16 Dougie Hamilton 82 18 46 60 Petr Mrazek 47 27 3
Brett Pesce 73 5 30 20 Jake Gardiner 70 4 39 34 James Reimer 40 21 2
Joel Edmundson 67 3 17 53 Trevor van Riemsdyk 72 4 16 18 Alex Nedeljkovic 1 0 0
Haydn Fleury 67 1 10 34 Gustav Forsling 35 1 10 16
Jake Bean 15 1 2 2
Restricted Free Agents: Maenalanen
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Andrei Svechnikov – Already covered in the 5on5 S% article early in the Guide (his was just
6.11%), Svechnikov is a favorite of mine to really step forward this year. With a better supporting cast (Canes have a
legit second line now) and better puck luck, I am bullish about the upcoming season for him. He‟ll be a 40-goal scorer
within three years, and as a bonus he could be a 150-Hits player too. He models his game after Alex Ovechkin, and he‟s
looking like a lesser Ovechkin in every category.
 After joining the Hurricanes, Niederreiter was Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
promptly put on Sebastian Aho‟s line and the two Sebastian Aho 93 85 Haydn Fleury 65%
had immediate chemistry. El Nino had 30 points in
36 games and the best is yet to come. He turns 27 Teuvo Teravainen 82 72 Martin Necas 80%
in September and has entered his prime. Andrei Svechnikov 80 63 Saku Maenalanen KHL
 Teravainen had 20 points in his first 28 games Nino Niederreiter 70 58 Janne Kuokkanen CUT
before exploding for 56 points in 54. He often Dougie Hamilton 65 53 Jake Bean CUT
played with Aho and Micheal Ferland. In the final
quarter he was still effective playing with Staal and Martin Necas 78 52 Alex Nedeljkovic CUT
Svechnikov (21 points in 20 games). Ryan Dzingel 67 48
 Hamilton started off very slowly (14 points in 38 Warren Foegele 67 47
games), prompting a lot of panic among poolies. Erik Haula 67 45
But he was just getting adapted to a new team. He
finished with 29 points in the last 44. In 2017-18 Ryan Suzuki 70 45
he had 27 points in the second half and 17 in the Jordan Staal 60 43
first half, so late surges are becoming a habit for
Julien Gauthier 68 42 Sleeper Pts %
him.
Jake Bean 50 42 Nino Niederreiter 65 20%
 Hamilton‟s late season surge had an impact on
his defense partner. Slavin tightened up on defense Jaccob Slavin 50 40 Warren Foegele 40 15%
to allow Hamilton more risks. He had just three Dominik Bokk 75 40 Erik Haula 60 15%
points in the final 19 games after posting 28 in 63.
Lucas Wallmark 65 36 Martin Necas 50 10%
Slavin had 11 assists in 15 playoff games under the
same situation, so perhaps he needed time to Brock McGinn 60 35
adjust to the „new‟ Hamilton. Morgan Geekie 65 33
 With Ferland in the lineup, Teravainen had 61 Janne Kuokkanen 70 30
points in 70 games. When Ferland was sidelined,
Teravainen had 15 points in 12 games. Perhaps Ferland now playing for Vancouver is a good thing for Teravainen
owners.
 With the Gardiner signing, the expectation is that Faulk will be traded. Stay tuned…
Injury Alert: Nothing too serious to report from the Canes‟ IR with 2019-20 in view. Depth winger Martinook needed
surgery last May to repair a core muscle injury but should be rarin‟ to go at camp … Defender van Riemsdyk was knocked
out of the postseason‟s series against Boston by a left shoulder injury that required him to go under the knife shortly
thereafter, but is also expected to be healthy by September … Surely the most worrisome late-season ailment, though,
was the concussion sustained by future superstar Svechnikov in a Round 1 fight with Washington‟s Alex Ovechkin.
Fortunately, the courageous (and naïve) youngster only missed six games and was back at his post against the Islanders
one series later … Veteran Staal also sustained a concussion that forced him to the sidelines for 32 games earlier in the
season … Of the club‟s offseason acquisitions, center Haula played in only 15 Vegas games all of last year because of a
November knee injury, while blueliner Forsling from Chicago missed 22 scattered-about-games due to various mishaps:
wrist, shoulder, torso. Both players are ready to go…Dzingel has a lower-body injury and is likely to miss the season
opener.
Goaltending: With the Scott Darling experiment now over and an impressive postseason run behind them, the Canes
head into 2019-20 with optimism as they look at their goaltending depth. Plus, to solidify the aforementioned, they‟re
one of the league‟s elite possession teams, they boast an excellent and deep group of defenders, and their coach (Rod
Brind‟Amour) has instilled the same style he played during his illustrious career – solid two-way commitment. Manning
the nets will be returnee Mrazek (2.39 goals-against average, .914 save percentage), who finally put it together after a
couple of see-saw seasons by excelling from the second half on, and Reimer, 31, who essentially replaces another
established veteran, Curtis McElhinney, who signed as a UFA with Tampa Bay. However, while Reimer (3.09 GAA in 36
GP with Florida) has delivered the goods in a backup role before, he‟ll need to fend off twenty-two-year-old Nedeljkovic,
the AHL‟s most outstanding goalie and Calder Cup champion in 2018-19 … Anton Forsberg, Callum Booth and Jeremy
Helvig provide further depth in the minors, with the latter showing deep sleeper appeal … Dobber’s confidence in
Mrazek being the starter: 75 %
Breakout Threshold: McGinn (240 GP) continued producing at a decent clip for a bottom-six forward, even increasing
his production to a 30-point pace in the second half after exceeding 200 games. He is what he is at this point and should
only be considered in deeper multi-cat leagues … Looking back to last year, new Hurricane Dzingel is a nice example of a
player having a breakout year as he crossed the 200-game mark.
Contract Year: What to do with Faulk is still on the barn burner in Carolina. Rumored to be on the trade block all of last
season, the offensive-geared rearguard will be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2019, so you just know that
chances are good he will finally be dealt by then. Just 27, the righty-shooting power-play specialist scored his lowest total
of goals (11) and points (35) in four years. A bounce-back is in the cards … Blue line mate van Riemsdyk is a sound,
defensive type that could find employment on any club in the league, and may in fact be part of deal at some point this
season when we consider that prospects Jake Bean, Haydn Fleury, and even newcomer Forsling, are all banging on the
door for an NHL paycheck … Acquired via trade, Haula is the type of player Brind-Amour likes and should be retained by
general manager Don Waddell if he can complete a healthy season … Heading toward restricted free agency at the end of
next season will be forwards Foegele, Wallmark, and d-men Fleury and Forsling.
PIM: A hard-skating, gritty bunch but that stays away from fisticuffs for the most part. That, too, just like Brind‟Amour
the player. While Svechnikov now knows he needs to pick his spots better, if not avoid fighting altogether, his tenacity is
appreciated and he displayed lots of it by leading the
Canes in PIM with 62 as an 18-year-old. At this pace, Blocked Shots Hits
he should develop into a good points-PIM down the
Jaccob Slavin 149 Jordan Martinook 174
road … Micheal Ferland, who‟s known to drop the
gloves when necessary, was second on the club with Brett Pesce 126 Dougie Hamilton 152
58, but he chose to accept Vancouver‟s offer during
Justin Faulk 109 Andrei Svechnikov 135
the UFA period … Hamilton (39 points / 54 penalty
minutes) and Faulk (35/47) provide good points-PIM Trevor van Riemsdyk 99 Justin Faulk 134
value from the blue line, so keep them in mind if Dougie Hamilton 89 Jordan Staal 133
your league setup requires those stats.
Haydn Fleury 88 Warren Foegele 131
Plus-Minus: There were four extremes here last Gustav Forsling 64 Brock McGinn 127
season: Pesce (plus-35), Teravainen (plus-30), Aho
(plus-25), and Foegele (minus-17). Everyone else Jordan Martinook 43 Nino Niederreiter 91
was relatively close to even. With better goaltending, Brian Gibbons 43 Lucas Wallmark 88
look for things to shift upwards for most players, and
the top players will top plus-20. Lucas Wallmark 35 Haydn Fleury 85

Dobber Advanced… HURRICANES
 The Hurricanes did a great job
overall in keeping the puck in the
other end. Look at the lopsided
number of players seeing more
offensive zone starts than
defensive zone starts
 Poor Wallmark. He absolutely
lights it up in the AHL and
because he‟s not a „name‟
offensive player and because he‟s
solid defensively, he‟s getting
pigeonholed as a checker.
Despite being the only player
getting more defensive zone
starts, as well as being a
member of the second PK unit,
he still managed 28 points as a
rookie. He‟s starting to remind
me of Patrick Sharp in terms of
his determination to break out of
that pigeonhole.
 The best possession players,
for the role they were given,
were Staal (very tough minutes),
Williams (offensive minutes, but
trusted against any line),
Niederreiter, and Hamilton (who
was actually sheltered a little bit
and probably didn‟t need to be).
 McGinn‟s Hits may be an
asset, and he have been a plus-
player for the first time in his
career (plus-10), but his
possession numbers are
disappointing given the ease of how he is implemented.
 The big beige circle in the middle, you probably can‟t make out his name in that jumble, is Slavin.
 I already noted Svechnikov in the 5on5 S% article in the first part of this Guide. But Staal and Wallmark are also
quite low in this stat and should see better production in the year ahead due to the law of averages (below chart).
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
TEUVO TERAVAINEN L 82 51.2 1035 0.944 9.1 55 55.9 77.6 72.3 85.7 3.1
SEBASTIAN AHO R 82 58.4 1018 0.931 8.7 56.45 61.5 70.3 66.7 75 3
NINO NIEDERREITER R 36 57.2 979 0.899 8 55.45 60.2 63.9 66.7 57.7 2.7
MICHEAL FERLAND L 71 54.1 1029 0.935 9.4 53.6 41.1 60.6 58.7 65 2.4
JUSTIN WILLIAMS R 82 55.1 984 0.914 7 57.89 55.5 60.9 67.2 48.3 2.2
ANDREI SVECHNIKOV R 82 51 982 0.921 6.1 56.34 39.2 59.7 68.1 33.3 1.8
JORDAN STAAL C 50 50.3 982 0.922 6 59.69 39.1 62.2 72.2 28.6 1.8
DOUGIE HAMILTON D 82 54.9 984 0.914 7 57.64 38.1 47.6 46.4 53.8 1.5
LUCAS WALLMARK C 81 48.2 969 0.918 5.1 54.56 25.4 63.6 60 77.8 1.4
JORDAN MARTINOOK L 82 50.5 961 0.896 6.5 55.68 2 51 51.1 0 1.3

Chicago BLACKHAWKS
Alex DeBrincat 81 40 77 16 Dylan Strome 75 22 62 28 Patrick Kane 82 37 96 26

Brandon Saad 81 23 46 12 Jonathan Toews 76 32 71 41 Brendan Perlini 71 19 35 31
Dominik Kubalik 61 12 26 16 Andrew Shaw 61 15 38 80 Drake Caggiula 61 11 26 32
David Kampf 68 5 22 20 Zack Smith 71 9 20 71 Ryan Carpenter 68 8 21 12
Dylan Sikura 31 2 9 4 John Quenneville 38 2 10 26 Alexander Nylander 19 3 7 4
Anton Wedin 20 0 6 4 Aleksi Saarela 12 1 3 2

Erik Gustafsson 78 16 64 38 Duncan Keith 81 6 37 34 Robin Lehner 46 23 2
Olli Maatta 66 3 22 14 Calvin de Haan 63 2 18 15 Corey Crawford 39 14 2
Brent Seabrook 78 4 21 35 Connor Murphy 69 4 19 46 Collin Delia 3 1 0
Adam Boqvist 9 0 1 0 Slater Koekkoek 38 2 9 16
Restricted Free Agents: Perlini
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Dylan Strome – A little surprised that Strome won the Forum vote here because to me the
trend is obvious: stud. He arrived in Chicago and was put on the third line without pressure. He was rewarded with a
second-line tryout and did well. Was moved to the top line and started to take off. With his confidence in overdrive, Kane
was removed from his line in the final quarter and Strome continued to do well. He was joined at the hip with DeBrincat
(his buddy and linemate in junior), which is a pretty sweet situation to be in. And that‟s exactly where he‟ll be for the
next five years – linemates with future superstar DeBrincat. Strome finished the season with 37 points in 37 games.
 Sikura is exempt from waivers unless he plays Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
32 more games in the NHL. So, if he‟s on the team, Patrick Kane 115 95 Dominik Kubalik 80%
look closely at that 31-game cutoff because if he is
on the borderline of not being ready, the Hawks Alex DeBrincat 95 78 Alex Nylander 50%
may send him down for the rest of the season. Dylan Strome 85 72 Anton Wedin CUT
They‟d rather send him down sooner, than risk
Jonathan Toews 78 67 Dylan Sikura CUT
waivers later.
Erik Gustafsson 70 64 John Quenneville CUT
 Think the Gustafsson projection is aggressive?
Well, 52 of his 60 points last season came in the Kirby Dach 85 63 Adam Boqvist CUT
last 57 games – a 75-point pace. He ended the Alexander Nylander 72 48 Aleksi Saarela CUT
season with seven points in six games, so he never
Brendan Perlini 68 47 Kirby Dach 30%
slowed down.
Brandon Saad 65 45
 At one point in February DeBrincat had 21
points in 11 games. He and Strome will be the new Dylan Sikura 75 45
Kane and Toews for offense, and it will happen Aleksi Saarela 70 42
sooner than you think.
Adam Boqvist 68 42 Sleeper Pts %
 One thing that obviously helped Chicago‟s Chad Krys 53 42 Dylan Strome 75 20%
prolific offense last year was the health of the
roster. Four of their 10 best players played all 82 Ian Mitchell 57 42 Dominik Kubalik 45 15%
games, with each of their Top 10 scorers playing at Drake Caggiula 65 35 Brendan Perlini 45 10%
least 78 games. This luck is quite rare and to count
Andrew Shaw 55 35
on it again would be folly. An injury to a key player
would have a domino effect on others. Duncan Keith 47 35
 Smith neatly replaces Kruger in terms of a pure Nicolas Beaudin 35 58

defensive role. Although in Ottawa he was often Dominik Kubalik 70 30
used as a two-way guy (had 36 and 32 points as
recently as two to three years ago), he certainly won‟t be here. It will be all defense. This will ensure another productive
year for Toews, as he will be freed up for offense.

Injury Alert: In general, aside from the usual set of cuts and scrapes endured throughout a long NHL campaign, the
Blackhawks weren‟t assaulted by the injury bug last year and are heading into 2019-20 on a healthy note. Even
Crawford, whose last two seasons were marred by serious concussion problems – so much so that his career was
believed in jeopardy – says he‟s feeling great and can‟t wait to get the new schedule underway. A workhorse goalie
during his career, Crawford was limited to but 67 outings since the start of 2017-18 … Acquired via trade by way of
Carolina, de Haan may miss opening night because of shoulder surgery he underwent last May … Worth mentioning:
Murphy on defense missed a run of 30 games into December to start last season because of concussion, but did finish on
a healthy note for the last 52, while Shaw, back for a second tour of duty with the Hawks, was MIA for 15 contests
because of a neck injury as a member of the Canadiens. Somewhat injury prone of late, he has played 63, 51 and 68
games, respectively, going back the last three campaigns.
Goaltending: In a wise move, general manager Stan Bowman chose to sign 27-year-old Lehner out of the UFA market
just in case Crawford runs into difficulties because of concussion again. And judging by last year‟s scintillating
performance on Long Island (25 wins, 2.13 goals-against average, .930 save percentage), the Bill Masterton Trophy
winner will more than give Crawford a run for his money in quest of the No.1 job. In fact, Crawford, now 34, will most
likely play the role of second unless there‟s a Lehner collapse … The big loser with regard to Lehner‟s addition – aside
from now-UFA Cam Ward, last year‟s backup – is prospect Delia, who‟ll be without a doubt back in Rockford of the AHL
unless injury strikes … Whomever tends the nets at the United Center will be doing so behind a defensive corps that‟s
somewhat under construction, so be wary if you‟re looking for strong GAA and SV% right off the bat. While Keith
rebounded solidly from a difficult 2017-18 campaign, Seabrook is far from the player he once was, surprise breakout
performer Gustafsson knows his way offensively but less so defensively, and then you have Murphy with newcomers
Maatta and de Haan to round out the top-six. Finally, that‟s not bad if everyone plays to the level they can. Oh, and
before we close this section, Boqvist – 20-40-60 with London of the OHL – believes he can break camp with the
Blackhawks, so that will be an interesting situation to monitor. The eighth-overall pick in 2018 is a supremely-talented
offensive rearguard. Dobber’s confidence in Lehner being the starter: 55%
Breakout Threshold: Last year, Caggiula increased his points per game by 40% from the year before and improved
even a bit more after arriving in Chicago. He should hit 200 games in November, so another jump in production could be
in order, especially if he continues seeing time with Toews and Kane … Maatta has had his career derailed by injuries but
has had decent offensive years when healthy. At 362 games, he should cross the 400-game BT for d-men sometime this
year. An increase could be in order, although he may not get a real opportunity to thrive in an offensive role.
Contract Year: Gustafsson seemingly came out of nowhere last year and posted a dream fantasy hockey season for a
blueliner: 17-43-60. With one more year left on his contract, one wonders if the lure of free agency‟s big bucks will entice
him following another campaign that would resemble 2018-19. Joining him could be Lehner, who‟s gambling on himself
to enjoy yet another standout season – he signed
with the Hawks for just one year this past summer. Blocked Shots Hits
Right behind Lehner on the UFA market could be
goaltending mate Crawford, as well as this summer‟s Brent Seabrook 147 Connor Murphy 155
sleeper-signee from Sweden, Wedin, who picked up Duncan Keith 139 Drake Caggiula 127
27 points in 32 matchups with Timra of the SHL
…More work for GM Bowman? That will come in the Olli Maatta 112 Calvin de Haan 123
form of new contracts for two of the past season‟s Erik Gustafsson 109 Andrew Shaw 119
young breakout performers, Strome and DeBrincat,
Calvin de Haan 108 Ryan Carpenter 113
the offensive pair with flair. Other potential RFA in
2020, Caggiula, Koekkoek and Kubalik will be on the Connor Murphy 104 Zack Smith 111
lookout for the most important deals of their young
Carl Dahlstrom 63 Olli Maatta 100
careers. The former two arrived to the pro ranks with
credentials but have yet to establish themselves. Dylan Strome 42 Brent Seabrook 95
Slater Koekkoek 40 Erik Gustafsson 90
PIM: Yes, the Madhouse on Madison is an
intimidating place to play as a visitor, but it isn‟t Andrew Shaw 34 Brendan Perlini 70
because of the current group of Blackhawks. Well,
sure, Kane and Toews are intimidating to play against but not because of physical play. Last year, Keith was the only
Hawk to collect more than 41 penalty minutes. In fact, the 36-year-old‟s 70 PIM were the most he has picked up in a
season since 2006-07. His 40 points from the blueline added to his fantasy value in peripherals. Keith will get some help
in this departments from Shaw and Smith, both acquired via trade from Montreal and Ottawa, respectively. While his 71
minutes weren‟t the most he has accumulated in a season, Shaw enjoyed a career season with 47 points, which included
19 goals, in only 63 games. As for him, Smith plays a hard-nosed game, but aside from a surprising 25-goal effort in
2015-16, gets defensive assignments more often than not. At 31, his combination of points-PIM now will hover around
the 20-points, 70-80 PIM marks.
Plus-Minus: This year‟s roster of returning players had a plus-minus rating between plus-13 (Keith) and minus-12
(Perlini). With stable and strong goaltending in place, look for this to shift. Players will now mostly fall between minus-5
and plus-20. Gustafsson is notable here because he was minus-7. He logged a ton of minutes. Because of the
acquisitions of Maatta and de Haan, Gustafsson can be used better and should be good for a number in the black.

Dobber Advanced… BLACKHAWKS
 Last year Kampf and Marcus
Kruger logged the most defensive
zone starts on the team. With
Kruger gone, newly-acquired
Smith will fill that void. This will
ensure that Toews continues to
get the offensive zone starts that
led to last year‟s career-best
production.
 Murphy did a fine job
shouldering the defensive load for
the blueliners, Dahlstrom did okay
too, but obviously not good
enough as the Hawks went out
and acquired de Haan and Maatta.
This dynamic of giving the entire
defensive workload to one pairing
frees up Gustafsson and Keith for
strictly offensive duties. And
allows Seabrook to be sheltered.
 Jokiharju stormed out of the
gate with 10 assists in 21 games,
but it wasn‟t just the impressive
offense. As you can see here, his
possession numbers were
extremely good. Nylander, who
was acquired for Jokiharju, better
pan out because Chicago gave up
a good one.
 If you still question if
Gustafsson is the real deal, these
numbers seem to bear out that he
is. Possession numbers are
strong, the 5on5 S% (below) isn‟t
bloated to indicate he was overly lucky, his Pts/60 at 2.0 is very good when you consider he had 22:35 of ice time.
 Kahun, who is now with Pittsburgh, was impressive as the Blackhawks‟ forward who faced the strong quality of
competition.
 Strome, Kane, Perlini and Seabrook lost possession (relative to the competition). With Seabrook, the numbers are
really telling. Keith‟s possession numbers actually improved because last season he was mostly removed from being
paired with Seabrook. As for Perlini, for now chalk it up to a down year for a young player still getting acclimated. For
now.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
PATRICK KANE R 81 63 1034 0.921 11.4 48.85 76.5 78 79.8 71.4 3.6
ALEX DEBRINCAT R 82 59.8 1013 0.907 10.6 49.71 67.5 67.3 68 63.2 3.1
DYLAN STROME C 58 55.5 1008 0.902 10.6 47.8 66.5 58.8 63.5 47.1 3.1
JONATHAN TOEWS C 82 56.5 1009 0.919 9 50.41 67.6 64.8 69.1 57.5 2.8
ERIK GUSTAFSSON D 79 59.6 1012 0.921 9.1 50.22 62.3 50.4 48.8 54.5 2
BRANDON SAAD L 80 48.2 987 0.911 7.6 52.63 30.1 65.3 64.4 66.7 2
DOMINIK KAHUN C 82 52.4 1021 0.938 8.3 49.95 21.9 61.7 63.6 40 1.9
BRENDAN PERLINI L 46 56.6 974 0.912 6.2 48.12 1.5 72.4 70.8 80 1.8
ARTEM ANISIMOV C 78 53.1 1007 0.932 7.5 48.19 28.8 67.3 69.6 50 1.7
DUNCAN KEITH D 82 58 1020 0.924 9.6 49.65 28.6 38.5 38.3 37.5 1.3

Colorado AVALANCHE
G. Landeskog 74 29 71 55 N. MacKinnon 80 36 100 33 Mikko Rantanen 78 32 90 50

Andre Burakovsky 72 19 37 24 Nazem Kadri 78 30 56 49 Joonas Donskoi 70 14 40 18
Tyson Jost 73 13 31 22 J.T. Compher 68 18 37 34 Colin Wilson 64 9 25 12
Matt Calvert 72 11 24 53 P-E Bellemare 77 5 15 12 Matt Nieto 63 7 23 12
A.J. Greer 58 9 14 61 Vladislav Kamenev 37 7 13 14 Valeri Nichushkin 67 7 30 8

Erik Johnson 55 4 21 40 Nikita Zadorov 68 6 20 83 Philipp Grubauer 52 28 4
Samuel Girard 80 6 34 12 Cale Makar 78 9 44 26 Pavel Francouz 35 15 2
Ian Cole 49 2 13 63 Conor Timmins 40 2 16 8
Kevin Connauton 60 5 14 22 Calle Rosen 36 2 13 12
Mark Barberio 10 0 2 0
Restricted Free Agents: Rantanen, Greer
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Samuel Girard – Unfortunately, poolies, the wait will be a long one – but he‟ll get there. Have
faith. The eye test, the advanced stats as well as the confident way in which the coach uses Girard against any and all
competition makes it pretty clear that he‟s a special player. Think about it. He‟s a 165-pound 21-year-old who is used
against the other teams‟ scoring lines and he usually comes away smiling. Don‟t be frustrated just because after two NHL
seasons he hasn‟t been more than a 25- or 30-point player. Girard will probably need at least 300 NHL games, possibly
400, before he hits his stride. You waited that long for John Carlson in Washington; it will be similar here. In the
meantime, expect five- or six-point increases year-over-year as you await that breakout.
 Rosen is on a one-way contract now, though Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %

his small contract can be buried. But after he Nathan MacKinnon 120 100 Cale Makar 100%
plays his 52nd game this season he will need to
clear waivers in order to be sent down. The 25- Mikko Rantanen 115 92 Calle Rosen CUT
year-oild had 46 points in 54 AHL games last Gabriel Landeskog 90 75 A.J. Greer CUT
campaign for the Marlies.
Alex Newhook 82 55 Conor Timmins 60%
 The big line really came down to earth in the Nazem Kadri 72 52 Vladislav Kamenev 45%
second half. Rantanen had just 21 points in the
last 32 games, MacKinnon 34 in 39 (he had 65 in Cale Makar 67 52 Martin Kaut CUT
43 before that), and Landeskog had 26 in 30. This J.T. Compher 67 50 Bowen Byram CUT
was primarily because Rantanen got injured. But it
Tyson Jost 72 48 Shane Bowers CUT
was also because the trio had very good puck luck
that corrected itself in the second half (and their Samuel Girard 58 48
5on5 S% returned to the norm). Shane Bowers 67 48
 Compher had 18 points in the first 26 games Martin Kaut 72 45
and was a great early-season waiver pickup. He
Conor Timmins 55 45 Sleeper Pts %
was used as part of a four-forward power play
with the big line (seven of those points were Bowen Byram 62 43 Cale Makar 50 20%
PPPts). Injuries are starting to stunt his progress, Joonas Donskoi 65 40 Joonas Donskoi 50 20%
and now Kadri could steal his plum PP spot for
three reasons. First, Kadri was often a fourth man Andre Burakovsky 68 40 Alex Newhook 50 10%
for Toronto‟s power play over the years. Second, Sheldon Dries 62 40 Samuel Girard 43 10%
Kadri is a more skilled offensive player and is a
Vladislav Kamenev 65 37
better faceoff man. Third, coach Jared Bednar was
quick to replace Compher with Brassard as soon Colin Wilson 50 30
as the team acquired him. Calle Rosen 57 28
 Wilson had eight points in 12 games in the
playoffs, with three PPPts as he took the fourth forward spot on that big power play. With Kadri now here, Wilson will not
pick up where he left off, unfortunately.
 Makar made a massive splash in his NHL debut. His first NHL game was in the playoffs, and he looked very poised en
route to posting six points in 10 playoff games.
 Timmins, despite missing all of last season, beat out Rosen for the last roster spot. But he has his risks due to
concussion history. But tremendous upside.

Injury Alert: Quality prospect Timmins, who missed all of 2018-19 because of a concussion sustained the year prior in
the OHL, is closer to a return by each passing day … Some not-so-good news: Veteran blueliners Johnson (shoulder) and
Cole (both hips) aren‟t expected to start 2019-20 on time after offseason surgery. The latter is expected back in
December, while Johnson should return to the lineup at least a couple of weeks before but that hasn‟t been confirmed …
Another prospect that‟s expected to be a sound contributor to the Avs‟ cause at some point soon, Kamenev, also
underwent shoulder surgery in the offseason and is on the road to recovery after missing the last 52 matchups (plus
playoffs) of 2018-19 … As is the case with all other NHL teams, players are in general knocked out of action for varying
five-to-10-game periods during a campaign to mend all sorts of bumps‟n bruises. For example, Rantanen‟s upper body
injury that forced him to the sidelines for the last eight games of the year. Fortunately, the young superstar Finn
renewed with action for the start of the playoffs and played a dominant, instrumental role in the Avs‟ Round 1 upset of
Calgary … All in all, aside from Johnson and Cole mentioned above, the Avs will tackle 2019-20 on a healthy note.
Goaltending: Signed as an unrestricted free agent from Washington in the summer of 2018, Grubauer turned out to be
a wise investment. After playing second fiddle to long-time Av Semyon Varlamov (now with NY Islanders) for most of the
first half, Grubauer took to the net in mid-March, never looked back and led Colorado to an inspiring postseason showing,
where he posted a solid .925 save percentage. More of the same is expected from the 27-year-old, but as of Day 1 this
time out. Without a doubt, he‟ll smash his career high of 37 games played set last season … Unless Avs‟ thinking changes
soon, backing up Grubauer will be 29-year-old Czech, Francouz, who enjoyed a brilliant first pro campaign in North
America. In 49 outings with Colorado of the AHL, Francouz posted 27 wins, with a 2.68 goals-against average and a .918
SV%. The AHL All-star is a sleeper and a great potential-handcuff goalie candidate for your fantasy squad … In the
system, Justin Annunen, Adam Werner and Petr Kvaca all possess intriguing potential and are firmly on the club‟s radar.
However, there remains a strong possibility that a veteran goalie is added to the group soon for call-up and insurance
purposes. Dobber’s confidence in Grubauer being the starter: 100%
Breakout Threshold: There is nobody in the coming season who fits in with the criteria here but keep an eye on
Compher, who is expected to have his full breakout campaign in 2020-21. He will reach 200 career games around mid-
season which could coincide with an offensive surge down the stretch.
Contract Year: Seems to us that Hall of Famer Joe Sakic has now also found his stride as an NHL general manager.
Brilliant drafting strategy, strong personnel development, and astute asset acquisition and management has been the
norm lately in Denver. As for what‟s coming up on the bargaining table, Sakic will most likely let 2019-20 play out before
he commits in any way to potential 2020 UFA Wilson, Nieto, Barberio, Connauton, and Francouz, who will all be playing
for new contracts … The restricted side of the negotiation ledger will demand more elbow grease, though, as Girard,
Zadorov, Jost, and Burakovsky will need to renew by next summer.
PIM: Cole plays a rugged, throwback-style from the

blue line but should be out of action until sometime Blocked Shots Hits
in December, so that should take a bite out of his
penalty-minute total. He led the Avs with 115 PIM in Ian Cole 163 Nikita Zadorov 220
71 outings last year. New acquisition Connauton Erik Johnson 126 Gabriel Landeskog 136
(from Arizona) was essentially acquired to fill his
spot, so he may be an option … Zadorov is a Samuel Girard 97 Kevin Connauton 111
candidate for decent sin bin minutes – he had 75 in Nikita Zadorov 82 Ian Cole 110
2018-19 and 103 the year before – as well as other
Cale Makar 78 Erik Johnson 109
peripheral stats. It‟s too bad he doesn‟t necessarily
chip in on the score sheet too often, or he‟d be a Kevin Connauton 69 Matt Calvert 101
great all-around fantasy contributor. Still, he‟s only
J.T. Compher 63 Nazem Kadri 98
24 and has the potential for about 25 points, which is
pretty good when combined with other categories for Pierre-Edouard Bellemare 62 A.J. Greer 98
deeper leagues … Since we‟re on the subject of deep Calle Rosen 62 Cale Makar 70
formats, three players of particular interest should be
Rantanen (54 PIM), Landeskog (51) and newcomer Gabriel Landeskog 58 Samuel Girard 63
Kadri (43), all contributors that will put up points
(especially the former) and generally add about 50-75 penalty minutes most years … Prospect-wise, former second-
rounder in 2015, Greer (54 GP, 19-25-44, 63 PIM in the AHL) has the potential for a few points on the score sheet and a
few minutes in the box.
Plus-Minus: The big guns on the Avs were all between plus-15 and plus-20. The rest of the team bounced between
minus-10 and plus-10. However, the big three accumulated that in the first half. In the second half, they hovered around
„even‟. Girard led this team in plus-minus after January 1 (plus-10, tied with partner Zadorov). Look for those two to lead
the way this season, with the big line again around plus-20 alongside them. The rest of the team should again be within
plus- or minus-10 of the „even‟ threshold.

Dobber Advanced… AVALANCHE
 The top line was put out
there when the faceoff was in
the offensive zone (duh). Barrie
was used against the third and
fourth lines, while Girard and
Johnson were trusted more
against the tougher lines. Look
for Makar to get Barrie‟s usage
here (i.e. somewhat sheltered)
– to great result.
 Nemeth was their defensive-
zone rearguard. With him gone,
it may fall upon Johnson or
more likely Cole.
 Compher posted good
offensive numbers despite being
used at ES in more of a
defensive role. His possession
numbers weren‟t great and he
is better suited for a less-
defensive role. But with two
more proven offensive pivots
ahead of him, he‟s stuck getting
used in this manner.
 The big line completely
dominated competition, even
though they were often put out
there against the other team‟s
best. Not really a revelation, but
the metrics do reflect this.
 Kerfoot (now with Toronto),
had a 5on5 S% of 6.5% (below)
that indicates a market
correction upwards with his
production.
 Despite the gaudy point totals, the Rantanen, MacKinnon, Landeskog line had a 5on5 S% that was close to (and
actually slightly lower than) the NHL‟s average S% of 9.0%. Normally a superstar line like this one would be 10.5-11%
here. It indicates sustainability and, potentially, another level of scoring yet.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
MIKKO RANTANEN R 74 63.7 1010 0.928 8.2 53.8 68.3 73.1 72 75 3.4
NATE MACKINNON C 82 63.2 1016 0.934 8.2 52.99 69.3 70.7 68.9 74 3.3
GABRIEL LANDESKOG L 73 63.2 1015 0.929 8.6 52.24 69 62.5 62.3 60.5 2.9
ALEXANDER KERFOOT C 78 54.3 985 0.92 6.5 50.98 36.3 70 65 75 2.2
TYSON BARRIE D 78 63.1 998 0.921 7.7 52.54 66.6 55.1 51.5 61 2.1
CARL SODERBERG C 82 39.4 997 0.912 8.5 49.05 29.3 70 67.9 71.4 2.1
COLIN WILSON C 65 48.5 987 0.914 7.3 47.71 37.1 60 69 37.5 1.8
J.T. COMPHER L 66 44.4 998 0.927 7.1 46.51 51.6 46.4 55.6 30 1.7
TYSON JOST C 70 53.3 1009 0.928 8.1 47.96 34.6 60.5 67.7 41.7 1.7
MATT NIETO L 64 43 979 0.906 7.3 51.49 0.9 60.5 64.5 0 1.6

Columbus BLUE JACKETS
Gustav Nyquist 80 20 58 18 Pierre-Luc Dubois 82 21 56 60 Cam Atkinson 76 33 62 17

Alexandre Texier 76 14 29 32 A. Wennberg 74 9 39 16 Oliver Bjorkstrand 79 21 48 14
Jakob Lilja 64 11 29 16 Boone Jenner 78 20 41 53 Emil Bemstrom 26 6 10 4
Nick Foligno 75 22 42 58 Riley Nash 77 7 23 14 Josh Anderson 74 22 42 58
Sonny Milano 60 12 28 16 Brandon Dubinsky 50 5 12 29 Eric Robinson 24 2 6 10
Markus Hannikainen 10 1 2 0

Seth Jones 76 10 54 32 Zach Werenski 79 11 47 18 Elvis Merzlikins 54 23 3
David Savard 79 8 24 37 Ryan Murray 57 2 28 18 Joonas Korpisalo 35 13 1
Markus Nutivaara 72 6 26 10 Vladislav Gavrikov 70 3 16 38
Scott Harrington 71 2 17 22 Dean Kukan 35 1 10 8
Gabriel Carlsson 15 0 3 2 Adam Clendening 18 0 3 10
Restricted Free Agents: Werenski, Sedlak (KHL)
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Oliver Bjorkstrand – Members of the forum selected this young (24) player because of his
tremendous upside. He had 118 points in the WHL and in his second full NHL season he scored 23 goals. How much
higher can he climb? The answer: high. Bjorkstrand played two minutes per game less than he did in 2017-18 and still
more than doubled his goals production. Now that the Jackets have emptied their roster of highly-paid „name‟ players,
Bjorkstrand by default will finally see 16 minutes per game. That‟s 33% more ice time than last season. As you‟ll see in
the BT section below, he‟s about as ready as can be. Your breakout is as strong a possibility this season as it‟s ever going
to get, which is why he is a very strong sleeper in the chart on the below-right. Not to put the horse behind the cart here,
but Bjorkstrand could one day be a Top 20 scorer in the NHL.
 Bjorkstrand had 22 points in the last 33 games Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
(a 55-point pace) playing primarily with non- Cam Atkinson 80 63 Sonny Milano 65%
shooter Wennberg and checker Jenner, and just
two power-play points. He really is champing at the Pierre-Luc Dubois 77 63 Elvis Merzlikins 99%
bit here. Oliver Bjorkstrand 80 58 Vladislav Gavrikov 95%
 Atkinson always does this – he goes nutty for Zach Werenski 67 53 Alexandre Texier 75%
half the season while the other half painful to Gustav Nyquist 67 53 Emil Bemstrom 50%
watch. The question is – which half? In 2017-18,
he had 33 points in 33 games to end the season. In Seth Jones 67 52 Eric Robinson CUT
2018-19 he had 42 points in 40 games to begin it. Liam Foudy 70 50 Gabriel Carlsson CUT
Atkinson is a great player and he has produced
Nick Foligno 65 45
without Artemi Panarin and he will produce again
without him. But will he ever do it for 82 games? Emil Bemstrom 75 45
 Dubois was taken down along with Atkinson. He Alexander Wennberg 67 43

had 37 points in 42 games to start, but finished Trey Fix-Wolansky 87 43
with 24 in 40. Those two will continue to be joined
Kevin Stenlund 67 43 Sleeper Pts %
at the hip – where one goes, so will the other in
terms of production. Boone Jenner 60 40 Oliver Bjorkstrand 65 25%
 Wennberg refused to shoot the puck and it‟s Josh Anderson 60 40 Gustav Nyquist 65 10%
getting worse, not better. His career high is 109 Alexandre Texier 70 40 Sonny Milano 40 10%
shots, and from 2015-2017 he averaged 1.38 shots
Sonny Milano 70 33 Emil Bemstrom 40 10%
per game. That‟s not much. But from 2017-2019
that dropped to 0.98. He‟s not even shooting once Ryan Murray 42 33
per game now and it‟s driving coach John Tortorella Markus Nutivaara 47 30
nuts. If he doesn‟t fix this, he could play his way off
the roster and onto another team. David Savard 42 28
 Milano was close to a roster spot last year and likely would have been called up, but he missed much of the season
with a torn oblique muscle. This year he has to clear waivers in order to be sent down. One thing that may be hovering
over his head is an assault charge that he and Avs‟ prospect A.J. Greer were given after a restaurant altercation in July.

Injury Alert: Latest reports have pretty much everyone that‟s still left on the roster ready to go by this September …
Some quick notes nonetheless: Murray missed significant time for the fifth season in his six-year career; this time, 24
games to end 2018-19 because of an upper body injury. Aside from an 82-game effort in 2015-16, Murray has never
taken part in more than 66 contests. Dubinsky, who has also endured his share of woes with the injury bug in past years,
missed a total of 21 outings because of three different ailments (oblique, lower body, hip). Nutivaara, was knocked out of
action for the last eight postseason matchups because of an upper body injury, but he will be okay. UPDATE: Dubinsky
will miss the start of the season due to a wrist injury.
Goaltending: Okay, this is where is gets kinda dicey for fantasy leaguers. With Bobrovsky out of the picture, the crease
responsibilities in Columbus are wide open and general manager Jarmo Kekalainen hasn‟t shown (not yet anyway) a
particular desire to pursue an established option outside of the organization. So, will backup-for-the-last-four-years
Korpisalo (2.95 GAA in 27 GP) nab the job? Will, according to multiple observers, the best-goalie-out-of-the-NHL in 2018-
19, Merzlikins, sweep in and postulate as the fantasy find of the coming season? Or, will well-regarded youngsters Daniil
Tarasov, 20, and/or Matiss Kivlenieks, 23, fast-track their AHL development and earn an NHL paycheck as of this season?
… We‟ve got the 25-year-old Merzlikins (22 wins, 2.44 goals-against average, .921 save percentage with Lugano of the
Swiss League) strutting his stuff as the go-to guy, with Korpisalo, also 25, providing experienced backup services to the
tune of about 35 games. Dobber’s confidence in Merzlikins being the starter: 90%
Breakout Threshold: Before the Blue Jackets loaded up on talent Dubois was on pace for 71 points through three
quarters. The departures open up more ice time for him and he‟s bound to reach 200 career games by the start of 2020.
It may take time to adjust to losing Panarin, though, so a second-half breakout may be the end result … Bjorkstrand
(197 GP) showed us what he is capable of with a 55-point pace in the final quarter. With more opportunities up front, this
production might become the norm.
Contract Year: Such a cloudy UFA picture just a few months ago is clear as day entering the new campaign. At the
moment, depth winger Hannikainen is the only Jacket playing for a new contract of the unrestricted kind in 2019-20, so
that‟s one side of the business that the GM will receive some much-deserved respite from this year … It‟s with his group
of restricted free agents that Kekalainen will be at his busiest when contracts are the topic of the day. Core players
Dubois and Anderson will be on tap for significant raises if they keep trending upward, and there‟s no reason to think
otherwise. Two of the brightest young stars in the league, teams would pay a pretty price to acquire them. Important, as
well, could be the situations regarding Merzlikins and Korpisalo, the crease tandem going into camp. If playing for a new
contract does bring out the best in players, then the Jackets‟ outlook in goal may not be as precarious as everybody but
Kekalainen thinks … On a side-note: Sure, he paid the price and lost a load of stars to free agency this summer, but we
have to admire Kekalainen‟s resolve for putting it all on the line in quest of a legit Stanley Cup run. It‟s not every year
that a club can aspire to the ultimate honor.
PIM: It certainly is nice when your impact players Blocked Shots Hits
possess size and the demeanor to use it. Columbus is
a decent destination to draft a couple of points-plus- David Savard 131 Josh Anderson 193
PIM players. Dubois, 61 points and 64 penalty Seth Jones 125 Boone Jenner 176
minutes, Anderson 47/60, Foligno 35/44, and Jenner
38/42, can all contribute in both categories and may Vladislav Gavrikov 96 Nick Foligno 172
do so somewhat more this season as some extra ice Ryan Murray 94 Brandon Dubinsky 145
time could be up for grabs following the departures of
Zach Werenski 91 David Savard 131
Panarin, Duchene et al. If healthy, McQuaid, one of
the league‟s most-feared pugilists, can also help in Scott Harrington 83 Pierre-Luc Dubois 121
the PIM department (but not points, unfortunately).
Boone Jenner 74 Seth Jones 95
Just 25 when this season‟s first puck will have
dropped, Jones, already one of the league‟s finest on Pierre-Luc Dubois 55 Vladislav Gavrikov 94
the blue line, plays a hard game but is rarely seen Nick Foligno 54 Markus Nutivaara 76
sitting in the sin bin.
Markus Nutivaara 53 Riley Nash 74
Plus-Minus: Players on this team ranged in plus-
minus between Anderson‟s plus-25 to Dubinsky‟s minus-16. While the undraftable Dubinsky will continue to be a
hopeless case, the rest of the team will tighten up defensively. They will have to, because goals will be harder to come
by. Look for a plus-minus range of around plus-5 for the better players and just below even for the rest of the squad.

Dobber Advanced… BLUE JACKETS
 Atkinson and Dubois are the
strongest possession forwards on
the team. Granted, having Artemi
Panarin on your line will help
drive the play in any situation,
but these two are very strong
even without him. Atkinson
showed this for years before
Panarin came along, and young
Dubois has gained valuable
experience and has all the tools.
 Wennberg and Bjorkstrand
may have been sheltered against
facing stronger opponents, but
they did just fine and could
certainly handle more
responsibility. In a post-Panarin
world, everyone will need to chip
in and take on a little more.
Bjorkstrand is actually the best
candidate for that top-line spot,
even over Nyquist.
 Jenner, Foligno and Anderson
were a good, but not great,
checking line. Dubinsky has been
terrible, and Nash unreliable.
Without a quality checking line,
the poor goaltenders are going to
have their confidence shot before
December. Fortunately, the
strong defense corps can
compensate.
 Most of the big guns in the
below chart had a rather high
5on5 S%, indicating a reduction in their numbers. But if you didn‟t expect that anyway after watching them lose Panarin,
Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel to free agency, you weren‟t paying attention.
 Bjorkstrand‟s points-per-60 of 2.3 just screams breakout. All he needs is more ice time and PP time.
 When healthy, Murray was very productive. But he caught some lucky bounces and probably ended up with a few
points more than he normally would without that puck luck (5on5 S% of 11.0%).
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
ARTEMI PANARIN C 79 77.8 1013 0.909 10.4 54.74 60.5 79.1 78.4 81.8 3.3
CAM ATKINSON R 80 68.2 1007 0.9 10.7 51.59 58.6 70.4 67.6 73.7 2.7
PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS L 82 67.3 1024 0.91 11.4 52.25 50.1 61 64.2 47.4 2.5
OLIVER BJORKSTRAND R 77 55.3 1003 0.913 9 52.26 26.6 73.5 82.5 33.3 2.3
JOSH ANDERSON R 82 46.9 1040 0.938 10.2 50.12 29.9 58 56.1 58.3 2
BOONE JENNER C 77 35.4 1013 0.925 8.8 48.42 34 57.6 63 33.3 1.7
NICK FOLIGNO L 73 39 1030 0.929 10.1 48.03 51.8 49.3 57.4 23.5 1.6
ZACH WERENSKI D 82 55.8 994 0.909 8.5 50.9 53.5 45.8 38.7 75 1.4
SETH JONES D 75 54.3 990 0.905 8.5 52.26 53.6 43.8 39.3 71.4 1.4
RYAN MURRAY D 56 47.9 1013 0.902 11 50.61 12.1 42.6 44.4 100 1.4

Dallas STARS
Jamie Benn 79 28 62 57 Tyler Seguin 82 36 80 24 A. Radulov 76 26 71 57

Roope Hintz 80 18 39 30 Joe Pavelski 78 31 62 27 Corey Perry 66 16 30 66
Mattias Janmark 81 14 31 24 Radek Faksa 80 16 34 48 Blake Comeau 78 8 23 52
Andrew Cogliano 82 11 24 28 Jason Dickinson 76 10 29 28 Denis Gurianov 35 4 10 6
Jason Robertson 9 1 3 2 Martin Hanzal 0 0 0 0

John Klingberg 75 11 58 22 Esa Lindell 78 8 33 25 Ben Bishop 51 29 6
Miro Heiskanen 81 13 50 20 Roman Polak 60 0 5 48 Anton Khudobin 34 13 1
Andrej Sekera 65 2 18 16 Stephen Johns 45 2 11 32 Jake Oettinger 2 2 0
Julius Honka 60 2 12 20 Jamie Oleksiak 46 3 12 38
Restricted Free Agents: Honka
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Roope Hintz – Although Hintz has a limited ceiling, he has a very strong chance of reaching it
because of several factors. First, he‟s NHL-ready. He took to the AHL game quickly and he transitioned that immediately
into the NHL. Most prospects take much longer. Second, he‟s very versatile. Not only can he play any forward position,
but he is very good at the faceoff circle (54.3%). He is also quick to adapt to the style of his linemates, sliding into any of
the top three lines and holding his own. Because Hintz can play center and do it well, the Stars will be mixing and
matching those top six players into all sorts of different combinations – including Hintz at center between Benn and
Radulov. He may have a low ceiling, but he has a very high floor.
 Benn‟s game has eroded due to wear-and-tear Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
on his body. At this point his production is average, Tyler Seguin 95 78 Denis Gurianov 20%
but it spikes up to „very nice‟ if he lines up with
Seguin and Radulov. He is completely reliant on Alexander Radulov 82 70 Joel L'Esperance CUT
linemates when it comes to achieving big numbers. Jamie Benn 85 62 Jason Robertson CUT
Fully 58.5% of his points at even strength were
Joe Pavelski 75 62 Emil Djuse 25%
while playing with those two in only 42% of his
shifts. Moved to a different line and he becomes a John Klingberg 70 58 Joel Kiviranta CUT
40-point player. On the plus side, his 11 PPPts Jason Robertson 88 58
were his lowest in seven years and so an expected
return to 20-plus PPPts would help get him back up Miro Heiskanen 65 52
over 60 or even 65 points. Roope Hintz 65 48
 When analyzing „time together‟ versus „percent Denis Gurianov 68 45
of production‟, Heiskanen‟s numbers were only Riley Tufte 70 45
dragged down whenever he was paired with Polak.
If he gets away from that pairing, he will seriously Corey Perry 65 40
take off. Jason Dickinson 65 40 Sleeper Pts %
 Interesting stat: Seguin had just seven points in Esa Lindell 52 38 Roope Hintz 48 20%
the 12 games that Radulov was out of the lineup, Ty Dellandrea 80 35 Corey Perry 45 15%
versus 73 in 70 games with Radulov in.
Radek Faksa 53 35 Jason Robertson 52 10%
 Klingberg being out of the lineup hurt the big
Mattias Janmark 63 33
guns. Seguin had 15 points in 18 games (0.83),
Radulov 15 in 17 (0.88). But it actually helped the Joel L'Esperance 65 30
young stud Heiskanen. He had 10 points in those Julius Honka 52 28
18 games (0.56). Lindell had nine in 18 (0.50).
Andrew Cogliano 40 23
 Once Devin Shore was traded midseason, Hintz
saw a bump in PP time and he produced at a 34-point rate.
 Pavelski didn‟t get his first assist last year until November 11, his 18th game. He had seven goals. He also finished
slow with just three points in 10 games. Sandwiched in the middle of that was a run of 54 points in 57 games – so the
potential is still there.

Injury Alert: There were numerous lengthy absences because of injury last year in Dallas. Johns missed the entire
season because of post-traumatic headaches and Hanzal (back) only dressed for seven games. Johns was seen skating
during development camp in June, Hanzal played in only 38 games the year prior as well. In fact, his NHL career has
often been spotted with injuries and lots of missed time. UPDATE: Johns is not participating in camp drills with the rest of
the team … Oleksiak (knee) and Janmark (broken foot) each had their issues during the postseason but should be ready
to go … New acquisitions Perry (knee) and Sekera (Achilles‟ tendon) were also seen at the infirmary multiple times in
2018-19, as they dressed for only 31 and 24 games, respectively, for Anaheim and Edmonton. Sekera was out of action
for all but 36 games in 2017-18, as well … Of significance elsewhere, Klingberg missed 18 outings because of a hand
injury during the first half but returned with his usual offensive gusto and finished the campaign with 45 points in 64
games. And there‟s Vezina Trophy finalist, Bishop, who missed a total of 17 games because of lower and upper body
ailments. Update: Corey Perry suffered a fractured foot in his first day of camp, or perhaps while preparing for first day
of camp. No timeline on a return but I already accounted for time lost due to injury with him.
Goaltending: The crease in Dallas is Bishop‟s. The backup job in Dallas is Khudobin‟s. Thanks to one of the league‟s
most dependable duos, the Stars allowed the second-least amount of goals in 2018-19, bested only by the New York
Islanders. Thirty-three years old in November, Bishop enjoyed his best season since his Vezina-caliber days with Tampa
Bay. On top of 27 wins in only 46 contests, he registered a sparkling 1.98 goals-against average and a stubborn .934
save percentage. Curiously, the 6-7 finalist for the Vezina was beaten out for the award by Andrei Vasilevskiy, the same
young Bolt that ultimately took over the No.1 job in Tampa Bay. As for Khudobin, one wonders where the Stars would
have been without him last year, especially when Bishop was MIA on a few occasions because of injury. In 41 matchups,
the stocky, likeable Russian recorded a 2.57 GAA to go along with a .923 SV% … While there should be no change in
Dallas‟ scheme-of-things this year in goal – that is, unless Khudobin is traded to potentially avoid losing him to free
agency next summer – the Stars like what they see in the pipeline at this position. Signed to an entry-level deal last
March, Hockey East All-Star and 2017 first-rounder, Jake Oettinger, will be strutting his stuff with as a pro this fall. After
enjoying yet another solid season with Boston University in 2018-19, the 6-5 Oettinger joined Texas last spring and put
up a 2.47 GAA in six games. He‟ll be in the mix for a job alongside 6-4 Colton Point, 21, and 6-5 Landon Bow, 24 by the
start of the new season. What do they say? Everything‟s bigger in Texas? Well, they surely like their goalies that way.
Dobber’s confidence in Bishop being the starter: 100%
Breakout Threshold: Klingberg (367 GP) has already been an offensive star for many years. If he has another gear,
we‟ll start seeing it this year as he reaches the 400-game BT for defensemen. The Stars‟ added firepower up front could
make such a breakout easier to achieve … Janmark (235 GP) had been showing signs but failed to take a step forward
last year while crossing the 200-game BT. At this point he is likely a career checking-line forward and the offseason
additions will help solidify Janmark‟s role.
Contract Year: At 26, industrious, two-way wing

Janmark is the only potential unrestricted free agent Blocked Shots Hits
for 2020 that doesn‟t qualify for the Dallas‟
thirtysomething club. Khudobin, 33, Perry, 34, Esa Lindell 153 Blake Comeau 190
Hanzal, 32, Polak, 33, and Sekera, 33, easily do, as Stephen Johns 130 Stephen Johns 164
you can see for yourself. A team with so many
graybeards must have a plan, so we‟ll let general Roman Polak 107 Roman Polak 162
manager Jim Nill divulge it during the upcoming Andrej Sekera 106 Jamie Benn 139
campaign. Seriously, though, experience is an
John Klingberg 101 Esa Lindell 136
indispensable factor to have on a hockey club, it‟s
just that the jury is now out for most of these Miro Heiskanen 84 Roope Hintz 132
seasoned vets in terms of playing healthy for an
Jamie Benn 66 Radek Faksa 112
entire season … RFA-wise, Nill‟s main preoccupations
should be Faksa, an underrated fellow that‟s Julius Honka 64 Jason Dickinson 108
developing into a strong two-way pivot, and Hintz, Alexander Radulov 63 Jamie Oleksiak 102
one of last season‟s most pleasant surprise. Gurianov
could be in the mix, too, if he continues to show Joe Pavelski 63 Andrew Cogliano 77
upside, as have Faksa and Hintz.
PIM: Big-sized and tough, the Stars should continue to be led by Benn (56 penalty minutes) unless team owner Tom
Gaglardi decides to meddle into hockey-related issues again, and a trade is inevitable this time out. Two-hundred-and-
forty-pound strongman Polak (69 PIM) and 6-7 Oleksiak (45 in 57 GP) aren‟t fun to play against when they decide to rub
elbows, while Radulov (72/54) provides a worthwhile combination of points/PIM. Faksa (30/54) has some untapped
potential there, as well.
Plus-Minus: Last season showed a wide window in this stat category for the Stars, ranging from minus-14 (Heiskanen)
to plus-22 (Radulov). There is nothing with this team that indicates a massive shift in the plus-minus of players. Both
Heiskanen and Hintz (minus-13) will improve with experience, while Pavelski should help that second line. Assume the
first line and top pair will come in at plus-15, with the second line/pairing at plus-5. The rest of the team should be
between minus-5 and even.

Dobber Advanced… STARS
 Surprising to see Lindell with
such poor possession results so I
had to look deeper. While he was
paired with Klingberg, this wasn‟t
the case for offensive zone faceoffs
(when Klingberg was paired with
Heiskanen) or defensive zone
faceoffs (when Lindell was paired
with Polak). A faceoff in the
defensive zone and Polak is beside
you? That‟s all we need to know
about that.
 Cogliano was brought in to help
Faksa shoulder the defensive load
against the tougher opponents and
he did a bang-up job doing it.
 Cogs and Faksa handling all the
defensive zone action frees up the
offensive zone ice time for the big
guns Benn, Seguin and Radulov.
 Spezza was given somewhat
sheltered minutes in the offensive
zone. This will go to newcomer
Perry (who will need it).
 Honka‟s possession numbers
were great. Sure, he was the most
sheltered player on the team, but
he was very responsible with those
minutes. Don‟t give up on him yet.
If he gets more responsibility and
continues to drive possession, he
could still come around.
 Nichushkin, who was bought out by the team, was sheltered and had good possession numbers. He was bought out
because he didn‟t produce the offense, but was also the victim of some bad puck luck. On another team, perhaps he can
turn things around.
 Hintz had poor puck luck. His 5on5 S% (below) was at just 5.8%. When he has linemates who score on a proper
percentage of their shots, his point totals will go up.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
ALEX RADULOV R 70 59.3 1033 0.938 9.4 50.93 71.3 69.2 68.6 67.6 3.1
TYLER SEGUIN C 82 56.7 1031 0.946 8.5 50.29 69.9 73.4 71.2 75 2.8
JAMIE BENN L 78 57.7 1034 0.947 8.7 49.68 61.5 59.6 67.2 39.3 2.2
JOHN KLINGBERG D 64 55.9 1014 0.946 6.8 51.6 70.7 52.9 43.9 71.4 1.7
JASON SPEZZA C 76 53.4 985 0.928 5.7 49.19 51.4 51.9 60 44.4 1.6
ROOPE HINTZ L 58 48.9 971 0.913 5.8 49.54 41.6 71 76.2 60 1.6
JASON DICKINSON C 67 37.4 1025 0.954 7.1 47.64 2.3 71 71 0 1.5
RADEK FAKSA C 81 26.8 995 0.928 6.6 45.63 20.7 63.8 67.6 42.9 1.4
MATTIAS JANMARK C 81 42.4 996 0.942 5.4 48.2 7.7 80.6 79.3 100 1.2
MIRO HEISKANEN D 82 51.9 996 0.924 7.2 50.24 39 41.3 36.9 57.1 1

Detroit RED WINGS
Tyler Bertuzzi 70 23 50 38 Dylan Larkin 79 34 79 67 Anthony Mantha 72 30 62 39

Taro Hirose 78 12 33 16 Frans Nielsen 77 12 34 16 A. Athanasiou 74 29 54 40
Darren Helm 62 10 20 26 Valtteri Filppula 77 13 30 23 E. Svechnikov 55 5 23 30
Christoffer Ehn 76 6 17 20 Luke Glendening 74 9 21 14 Justin Abdelkader 70 8 24 46
Adam Erne 60 10 18 46 Jacob de la Rose 57 3 13 22 Filip Zadina 8 2 3 0
Michael Rasmussen 14 1 5 8

Mike Green 60 8 34 31 Danny DeKeyser 66 6 22 35 Jimmy Howard 53 22 1
Filip Hronek 77 10 41 48 Dennis Cholowski 74 8 26 26 Jonathan Bernier 20 6 1
Trevor Daley 53 3 10 22 Jonathan Ericsson 48 1 5 33 Calvin Pickard 15 6 0
Patrik Nemeth 72 2 14 49 Madison Bowey 72 3 19 54
Oliwer Kaski 26 3 6 2 Joe Hicketts 18 1 4 6
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Tyler Bertuzzi – The 24-year-old caught everyone‟s attention when he compiled four
consecutive three-point games in late March. He‟s a smaller guy (6-0, 190) who plays like a power forward and we‟ve
already seen that lead to injuries so I feel like that risk will always be there. He clicked with Larkin and Mantha over the
final month and that chemistry will have every chance to continue in the year ahead. Do not bank on his staying healthy
throughout the entire season, but that chemistry is enough to convince that there is tremendous sleeper potential here.
I‟m not ready to move his upside (yet), but I believe he will come close to it and consistently stay close it over the next
several seasons.
 The aforementioned chemistry between Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %

Bertuzzi, Mantha and Larkin resulted in all of these Dylan Larkin 85 77 Filip Hronek 99%
players to have hot finishes to their season.
Mantha ended with 28 points in his last 26 games Anthony Mantha 77 60 Taro Hirose 90%
while Larkin finished with 32 in his last 30. This Andreas Athanasiou 73 58 Dennis Cholowski 65%
could be that next elite NHL line.
Joe Veleno 82 55 Evgeny Svechnikov CUT
 Hronek started off his NHL career with four Filip Zadina 80 53 Michael Rasmussen CUT
points in 16 games. Coach Jeff Blashill continued to
favor Cholowski when it came to PP minutes. But Tyler Bertuzzi 68 52 Oliwer Kaski CUT
he started to come around as Hronek continued to Michael Rasmussen 75 50 Filip Zadina CUT
impress – at both ends of the ice. Hronek ended
Jonatan Berggren 72 50 Ryan Kuffner CUT
the season with 19 in his last 30, working his way
onto the top unit. Filip Hronek 57 45 Joe Veleno CUT
 For some reason Blashill kept Nielsen on the Taro Hirose 75 43 Joe Hicketts CUT
first PP unit until February. With over 150 PP Evgeny Svechnikov 72 42
minutes, Nielsen managed just eight assists (four
Dennis Cholowski 58 42 Sleeper Pts %
of them primary). The 35-year-old Nielsen had just
11 points in the last 32 games. Jared McIsaac 55 36 Tyler Bertuzzi 60 20%
 Thomas Vanek led all forwards in PP minutes. Mike Green 52 35 Filip Hronek 47 20%
He‟s gone now, and hopefully Blashill has come to Frans Nielsen 55 33 Joe Veleno 55 15%
his senses about Nielsen. This would mean that
Valtteri Filppula 50 30 Andreas Athanasiou 65 10%
there are tons of available PP minutes for the
young forwards – primarily Larkin, Mantha and Moritz Seider 42 30 Taro Hirose 50 10%
Athanasiou, but also Bertuzzi. Madison Bowey 45 28
 Svechnikov missed last season due to injury Ryan Kuffner 67 28
(see below). This year he needs to clear waivers in
order to be sent down. He‟s not NHL-ready and could use at least a half-season in the AHL, but the Wings won‟t want to
lose him. As a result, he will be used sparingly. Hicketts also has to clear waivers, but the Wings will probably risk it if he
doesn‟t beat out Bowey for the roster spot.

Injury Alert: Just a crazy year for injuries in Detroit. No less than 11 players weren‟t in the lineup for game No.82
because of a reported ailment. And that‟s not counting great Red Wings veterans Henrik Zetterberg and Johan Franzen,
who are still listed on the long-term injured reserve … For fantasy leaguers, the more important names to cover are
Green, Nielsen, and Svechnikov – the latter for those owners that are constantly on the lookout for dark horses. Out for
the entire schedule after damaging his ACL during camp in 2018, Svechnikov‟s road to the NHL has been a lot bumpier
than brother Andrei‟s of the Hurricanes. A first-round pick himself – 19th overall in 2015 – Evgeny will give it another go
this fall … Oft-injured during his NHL career, Green contracted a virus that was attacking his liver in October of 2018. The
illness returned late last March, hence the reason he sat out another 17 games to close the campaign, which saw him
dress for only 43 games total. Latest reports had him ready for September‟s camp … As for Nielsen, more often than not
an injury-free player, his 72 games were his lowest number since 2010-11, and his 10 goals the fewest he‟s scored since
2008-09 … Here‟s a list of other Red Wings that finished 2018-19 out of the lineup for various reasons – fortunately, last
season‟s injuries shouldn‟t hamper their presence at upcoming camp: Abdelkader (leg), Daley (back), DeKeyser (hand),
Ericsson (lower and upper body), Rasmussen (upper body), Helm (upper body); and De La Rose (heart arrhythmia). All
are expected at camp.
Goaltending: Howard, now 35, is just like the Energizer bunny – he just keeps on ticking. Despite all the criticism he
has endured over the years, Howard has been one of the organization‟s most consistent athletes since its most-recent
glory days. And that‟s also despite his 3.07 goals-against average recorded in 2018-19, the highest of his 10 full seasons
in the Motor City. While the wily vet goes into the new campaign as the club‟s starter, the numerous trade rumors
regarding him over the years may finally come to fruition this season, though, since he‟ll be eligible for unrestricted free
agency next summer … Journeymen goalies Bernier, 31, and UFA signee Pickard, 27, will dispute the backup job. Both
arrived to the NHL with excellent junior hockey credentials but haven‟t been able to assert themselves as go-to guys in
the big show for very long periods of time. Bernier was an 11th overall pick in 2006, while Pickard was selected in the
second round, 49th overall, in 2010 … Meanwhile, prospects Filip Larsson (Denver, NCHC) and Jesper Eliasson (Vaxjo,
Swe Jr.) are the most intriguing puck-stoppers in the system and provide some hope, but still a few years away.
Dobber’s confidence in Howard being the starter: 90%
Breakout Threshold: As DeKeyser crossed the 400-game mark this past year, his production increased significantly as
he maintained a 33-point pace in the second half despite no deployment on the power play. He is very effective in multi-
category leagues … Athanasiou is a great example of the 200-game BT working, as he posted a career-high 53 points
which included improved play in the second half.
Contract Year: As mentioned above, Howard‟s status will be on general manager Steve Yzerman‟s agenda during the
upcoming season. He‟ll be joined by blueliners Green, Ericsson and Daley, and there‟s a good chance that all four vets
are peddled as Yzerman revs up his rebuild of the Wings. A rebuild that will surely include Mantha, Athanasiou, and
Bertuzzi, all due for next-level contracts as restricted
free agents. At some point, Svechnikov, Bowey and Blocked Shots Hits
De La Rose will also be sitting at the negotiation table
under similar circumstances – so, their performances Patrik Nemeth 130 Luke Glendening 163
in 2019-20 will loom large with regard to future Danny DeKeyser 128 Adam Erne 157
employment in the NHL.
Madison Bowey 91 Justin Abdelkader 151
PIM: Would you be surprised if Larkin was the Wings‟ Luke Glendening 83 Patrik Nemeth 133
top bad boy? Well, the term bad boy might be
Dennis Cholowski 78 Filip Hronek 110
stretching it but he did finish first among all
teammates in penalty minutes with 75, almost 30 Mike Green 73 Jacob de la Rose 102
more than Bowey, who was next in line with 46 (in
Trevor Daley 64 Christoffer Ehn 89
just 50 GP). Couple Larkin‟s 75 PIM with his 73
points, consider that the speedy 22-year-old still has Taro Hirose 63 Tyler Bertuzzi 85
some untapped potential stored within, and you‟ve Filip Hronek 59 Madison Bowey 85
got an excellent modern-day source of points-plus-
PIM … While not fully there yet, Mantha, Bertuzzi and Frans Nielsen 54 Danny DeKeyser 84
Rasmussen all play gritty styles, so the possibility
that they collect a few extra penalty minutes somewhere down the road exists. As members of the organization‟s new
crop of offensive leaders, they‟ll be increasingly targeted by opposition. Svechnikov has shown a sandpaper disposition at
other levels, so keep an eye on him if he‟s on the big club … As for genuine face-puncher Dylan McIlrath, at best he‟ll
only gets to see a handful or so of NHL games per season.
Plus-Minus: Bertuzzi led the team with plus-11 last year. Nobody else was above plus-2. Things won‟t get any better in
the coming season. Look for players to mostly sit between minus-1 and minus-10. Cholowski still represents a risk in this
category (he was minus-20 last year).

Dobber Advanced… RED WINGS
 The elite possession-drivers on
this team are clearly Larkin and
Mantha. The latter will be underrated
in fantasy leagues. Linemate
Bertuzzi is well on his way to joining
them.
 Vanek was given the easiest
minutes possible, and he still lost
possession more often than not.
Finally, NHL GMs are acknowledging
that he‟s just not an NHL player
anymore.
 Cholowski was also given
protected minutes, as with most
rookies. But what‟s interesting in
that Hronek was not. His bubble,
buried directly behind Bertuzzi‟s, is
in an area normally reserved for
veterans. He is playing a complete
game and for this reason is a much
safer pick than Cholowski.
 The Wings do not have an
effective checking line. Glendening
isn‟t getting any help. Nielsen isn‟t
the player he once was, and the
journeymen who trot in and out of
the lineup haven‟t been a great
solution. If they ever solve this
problem, it would allow the team to
really let their top six loose.
 Rasmussen wasn‟t given
offensive-zone starts and he
struggled handling defensive roles. Relatively speaking, for a rookie, he was fine. His strong IPP and Pts/60 numbers
(below) show that the talent is there. But the team will ruin him if they keep using him this way. Now eligible for the
AHL, it‟s best that he goes there.
 Both Hronek and Mantha had poor puck luck with lower 5on5 S%. They impressed last year, but the best is yet to
come.
 Athanasiou had a low CF%, but we already knew that he wasn‟t the strongest defensively. But his IPP and Pts/60
show that he adds an offensive element on his own coming from the second line.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
GUSTAV NYQUIST C 62 52.8 996 0.902 9.4 53.08 48.6 68.2 64.9 85.7 2.6
DYLAN LARKIN C 76 51.4 985 0.914 7.1 53.86 57.5 75.3 78.6 62.5 2.6
ANDRE. ATHANASIOU C 76 53.5 1012 0.927 8.5 44.91 51.3 73 77.4 52.4 2.5
ANTHONY MANTHA R 67 58 985 0.916 6.9 54.24 52.3 69.6 71.4 65 2.4
THOMAS VANEK L 64 63.5 1003 0.915 8.8 44.9 57.5 63.2 69.4 52.4 2.4
TYLER BERTUZZI L 73 45.9 1030 0.93 10 49.5 40.5 62.7 67.2 42.9 2.3
MIKE GREEN D 43 47.6 1001 0.918 8.4 47.92 43.6 55.3 54.8 60 1.7
FRANS NIELSEN C 72 48.7 1015 0.914 10.1 44.48 49.3 60.3 59.1 61.5 1.7
FILIP HRONEK D 46 45.7 985 0.916 6.9 49.85 39.2 56.1 56.7 55.6 1.5
MICHAEL RASMUSSEN C 62 42.3 988 0.917 7.1 45.01 42 54.5 63.6 36.4 1.4

Edmonton OILERS
Leon Draisaitl 81 41 99 46 Connor McDavid 81 40 116 24 James Neal 66 19 38 34

Joakim Nygard 70 16 29 18 R. Nugent.-Hopkins 75 25 62 26 Alex Chiasson 72 17 34 34
Jujhar Khaira 68 8 23 55 Riley Sheahan 74 10 29 16 Zack Kassian 78 15 32 89
Markus Granlund 73 13 23 18 Colby Cave 68 5 14 18 Josh Archibald 72 12 23 24
Josh Currie 18 2 5 2 Gaetan Haas 64 7 23 16 Kailer Yamamoto 44 6 19 16
Cooper Marody 18 1 7 4 Sam Gagner 15 2 6 4 Jesse Puljujarvi 0 0 0 0
Kyle Brodziak 0 0 0 0

Darnell Nurse 80 10 46 81 Oscar Klefbom 70 7 38 16 Mikko Koskinen 51 25 3
Adam Larsson 60 3 16 32 Kris Russell 72 3 17 26 Mike Smith 38 18 1
Matt Benning 68 6 22 35 Joel Persson 72 5 26 10
Brandon Manning 20 1 4 12 Ethan Bear 56 5 23 16
Caleb Jones 15 1 5 6 Evan Bouchard 2 0 0 0
Restricted Free Agents: Puljujarvi (signed in Finland, but has an NHL out clause if something gets done)
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Jesse Puljujarvi – The 21-year-old followed up what I considered to be a promising 2017-18
with a 2018-19 equivalent of a train wreck. Defensively, he was actually quite strong in 17-18 (which was just four
games off of being his official rookie season). He had 20 points in 68 games with a 5on5 S% that indicated he would
have done even better with bounces. But last year – full stop, record scratch. Weak advanced stats, no offense, cut short
by hip surgery. And now he reportedly wants to be traded, just when the team gets a new GM and Coach. Is it time to
give up on Puljujarvi? No. Two seasons? Only 21? A big, 6-4 player drafted fourth overall just three years ago? Absolutely
not. If you want to look at the the year-over-year stats of a big Finn who was drafted very high and had terrible stats for
the first four years of his NHL career – look up Olli Jokinen on Elite Prospects. I can see Jesse on a new team mimicking
that progress, though with a lower payoff (upside). That means two more years of pretty much convincing us he‟s a
bust… just before he „busts‟ out. UPDATE: Although Puljujarvi signed a one-year deal (on 8/27) to play in Finland, he has
an out clause that allows him to join the Oilers if
they can sign him. UPDATE II: As more details Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
emerge, it is looking as though JP will not return
unless he‟s traded (or convinced). I suspect the Connor McDavid 140 118 Joakim Nygard 70%
Oilers will leave him home to work on his Leon Draisaitl 110 98 Joel Persson 60%
confidence, and then try to convince him next
R. Nugent-Hopkins 80 65 Caleb Jones CUT
summer. He is too big a risk to rely on for the
coming season, even though he does still have an Kailer Yamamoto 82 57 Colby Cave 65%
out clause. Tyler Benson 75 50 Gaetan Haas 65%
 Former coach Todd McLellan loved using Jesse Puljujarvi 73 48 Kailer Yamamoto CUT
Klefbom on the power player, even though it Ryan McLeod 75 46 Tomas Jurco 25%
seemed obvious to most of us that Nurse was a
Cooper Marody 73 45 Evan Bouchard CUT
better fit there. Klefbom got hurt in mid-December,
so Nurse finally took over the PP. He proceeded to Darnell Nurse 57 43 Ethan Bear 55%
tally 35 points in his last 55 games (52-point Evan Bouchard 68 42 Cooper Marody CUT
pace), nine of those were PPPts. When Klefbom
returned he tried to cut back into Nurse‟s new PP Oscar Klefbom 48 38 Josh Currie CUT
time and astonishingly was able to do so. New Ethan Bear 52 38 Sleeper Pts %
coach Dave Tippett should see things differently.
Caleb Jones 53 36 Joakim Nygard 45 15%
 When you look at Haas and what he brings to James Neal 57 35 Zack Kassian 50 15%
the table, think of Par Lindholm for the Leafs last
year. Expect similar results and upside. Joakim Nygard 67 32 Kailer Yamamoto 45 10%
Alex Chiasson 45 32 Joel Persson 40 10%
 You may have figured that Nugent-Hopkins had
his career season because he mostly played with Markus Granlund 55 30 James Neal 48 10%
McDavid. But while he started and finished the Joel Persson 53 30
season that way, he only played about 13% of his
ES shifts with him. It probably helped him by an Zack Kassian 50 30
additional four to five points. The big reason for the
breakout was his extraordinary results on the power play. A bump in last year‟s PP time resulted in a career-high 26
PPPts, which is something is certainly sustainable.
 Kassian had sudden chemistry with McDavid in the second half, actually scoring 13 goals in the last 38 games without
PP time. The chemistry was strong enough that he should at least start there and have a career season (keep in mind
that bar is low – 29 points was his high). In multi-cat leagues, he‟s a good flier.
 Don‟t overrate Chiasson. Sure, he had 22 goals last year, but 16 of them came in the first half when his S% was
ridiculously high. The wind came out of his sails awfully quick and he had just five goals in the last 39 games.
Injury Alert: Aside from Puljujarvi‟s 25 games missed to close the season because of issues with his hip, Klefbom‟s 25
games with a hand injury around midseason, and Khaira‟s 17 contests because of a foot injury in an on-off last quarter,
Edmonton wasn‟t without that many significant players for an extended period of time. Of the three, Puljujarvi underwent
surgery on both his hips last March and, after all kinds of trade and going-back-to-Europe rumors, hopes to get his
career on track once and for all with a new coach (Dave Tippett) and general manager (Ken Holland) … Neal usually
misses at least a dozen or so games every season – last year, a lower body injury knocked him out for 17 games in the
second half. Same with dependable blueliner Russell, whose gritty style of play and smallish size leads to a few bouts
with the injury bug during a season…Brodziak has back issues and he has not even been on the ice this entire summer.
Sounds like he‟s out for most, if not all, of the season. UPDATE: Brodziak has retired. UPDATE: Person is out until early
October with a shoulder injury. He was on track to win a roster spot, now he may need a couple of AHL games first. This
could open the door to keep Bear up for a few games…Sheahan is out two weeks with a concussion (or longer)…Larsson
has a broken bone in his foot, out until mid-November.
Goaltending: Tippett knows unrestricted free agent signee Smith from their Phoenix/Arizona days, so that‟s a good
start. A low-key, defensive-minded bench boss, Tippett will most of all aim to implant much-needed structure throughout
the lineup. Can Smith, now 37 and after two inconsistent seasons in Calgary, be the Oilers‟ answer in nets? We shall see.
His best season under Tippett was his first in Phoenix, when he earned 38 wins and mustered up a 2.21 goals-against
average and .930 save percentage back in 2011-12. Or, will we see last year‟s version of Smith, who recorded a 2.72
GAA and .898 SV% in 42 games despite manning the nets for a Western Conference champion-caliber team? And then
there‟s Koskinen, 31, whom the Oilers signed to a fat $4.5-million contract for each of the next three seasons just 27
games into his NHL career? After a strong start, the big Finn tailed off a bit as the season wore on, but still recorded
some sound numbers – 25 wins and a .906 SV – when one considers the squad‟s erratic campaign … Down on the farm,
Shane Starrett enjoyed a solid rookie pro season with 27 wins, a 2.33 GAA and .918 SV% with Bakersfield of the AHL. He
should be joined there on a full-time basis this year by prospect Stuart Skinner, while team brass waits for their top
goalie hopeful, Olivier Rodrigue, to climb the ranks.
Dobber’s confidence in Koskinen being the
starter: 65% Blocked Shots Hits
Kris Russell 195 Adam Larsson 251
Breakout Threshold: There is nobody in the coming
Darnell Nurse 146 Zack Kassian 182
season who fits in with the criteria here but keep an
eye on Klefbom (316 GP). His real breakout is Adam Larsson 143 Darnell Nurse 166
expected in 2020-2021 but sometimes players break
Oscar Klefbom 127 Josh Archibald 165
out early, especially if Klefbom can develop chemistry
with the team‟s offensive stars on the power play. Joel Persson 93 Jujhar Khaira 133
The biggest hurdle is health. Caleb Jones 71 Matt Benning 121
Contract Year: Smith was awarded just a one-year Matt Benning 68 Colby Cave 92
deal, so his showing in 2019-20 will be telling for Kyle Brodziak 46 Kris Russell 85
what‟s left of his NHL career. Same situation for eight
other Oilers heading toward potential unrestricted Ethan Bear 45 Caleb Jones 78
free agency next summer: Kassian, Granlund, Josh Archibald 41 Kyle Brodziak 77
Brodziak, Gagner, Archibald, Nygard, Jurco, and
Manning. Big Kassian should be retained if he keeps
trending in the same direction. In 2018-19, the rugged winger scored 15 times, often alongside McDavid, despite skating
under 15 minutes per game. Granlund is a skilled and useful two-way performer that could find a niche with the Oilers –
there were just too many players of similar ilk in Vancouver. Of the rest, free agent acquisition Nygard is intriguing. One
of the best players not in the NHL last year, the blazing-fast, penalty-killing specialist potted 21 as a 26-year-old winger
in the SHL. Good luck to the others, who will need solid seasons to earn offers from Holland … On the restricted front,
Nurse, one of the league‟s fine young commodities on the blue line, will be looking for an extension at some point before
next July 1. Which he will get. Easily. Swedish newcomer, Persson, who may surprise on the back end, and fourth-year
defender Benning will also require new deals as RFA.
PIM: With Milan Lucic traded to Calgary, Kassian, Khaira and Nurse will be doing most of the policing in Edmonton.
Kassian racked up 102 penalty minutes, while Khaira picked up 43 PIM in 60 contests, and Nurse 87 over 82. Holland and
Tippett have rarely (if ever) employed pure enforcers in the past, so expect a team effort with regard to toughness. Most
of the club‟s sin bin minutes will most likely be collected in the upcoming Battles of Alberta, as both teams should crank
up the intensity in 2019-20. Neal, Smith, Lucic, McDavid, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Kassian, Bennett, et al.
Plus-Minus: If this stat is important to your success in the coming season, you should probably just stay away from all
Oilers not named McDavid or Draisaitl. Once again, most of the players on the roster will be in the red, with an

expectation of between minus-5 and minus-20. Larsson‟s minus-28 was made worse than it should have been due to bad
puck luck and just a tough season altogether.
Dobber Advanced… OILERS

 These charts are blurry in the
best of times (apologies, can‟t be
helped), but that jumble in the
middle is a real mess. The main
overlapping names are Chiasson‟s
name (brown bubble in the middle)
over Klefbom‟s name (blue bubble to
the right of it).
 Surprised to see that Gagner,
upon joining the Oilers, was a
possession monster. This is mostly
playing on a checking line, never
with McDavid. Is he an NHLer again?
Just 21 games, therefore a small
sample size. But nice to see. He also
had a low 5on5 S% (6.3%, below),
indicating a potential production
bump.
 Brodziak was given all the
defensive zone faceoffs unless one of
the opponent‟s better lines was out
there. The Oilers desperately need
legitimate checkers who can
shoulder this kind of load.
 Yamamoto wasn‟t sheltered
(though just 17 games), and he
effectively drove possession.
 Nurse lost possession, while
Klefbom drove possession. However,
Nurse faced tougher opponents.
 Klefbom‟s 0.46 points-per-game
average tied his career best, and his 5.1% 5on5 S% is low, indicating that the pucks weren‟t going in at an average rate
by his teammates when he was on the ice. So, a bit of poor puck luck there, and that should change this year – always
assume things revert to what is regular or common, when given enough time.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
CONNOR MCDAVID C 78 56 1008 0.902 10.6 49.91 77.4 81.7 83.5 78.6 3.9
LEON DRAISAITL C 82 52 1012 0.906 10.6 48.23 76.5 74.5 77.7 65.9 3.4
R. NUGENT-HOPKINS C 82 44.2 1001 0.91 9.1 45.44 74.2 66.3 67.8 61.9 2.5
ALEX CHIASSON R 73 47.2 1011 0.935 7.6 45.65 58.9 52.1 53.8 48.4 1.8
SAM GAGNER C 25 45.8 959 0.896 6.3 53.11 26.3 61.9 70.6 25 1.8
JUJHAR KHAIRA L 60 44.8 976 0.898 7.8 46.51 8.2 69.2 72.7 0 1.4
ZACK KASSIAN R 79 48.5 993 0.9 9.3 48.29 2.1 49.1 49 0 1.3
DARNELL NURSE D 82 45.6 1001 0.911 9 46.3 42.2 39.8 40.3 39.1 1.3
MILAN LUCIC L 79 44.8 990 0.924 6.6 50.75 30.7 50 55.2 36.4 1.1
OSCAR KLEFBOM D 61 48.5 974 0.923 5.1 50.33 60.2 42.4 40.5 52.4 1.1

Florida PANTHERS
J. Huberdeau 80 29 82 40 A. Barkov 77 31 92 12 Evgenii Dadonov 78 28 67 8

Mike Hoffman 79 30 62 38 Vincent Trocheck 74 24 61 51 Brett Connolly 73 21 45 30
Frank Vatrano 72 21 42 34 Henrik Borgstrom 74 14 39 16 Denis Malgin 65 11 32 12
Colton Sceviour 72 8 20 31 Noel Acciari 70 9 15 38 Jayce Hawryluk 73 9 29 49
Dryden Hunt 45 5 17 18 Aleksi Heponiemi 10 1 3 2 Owen Tippett 30 5 9 6
Kevin Roy 18 3 7 4

Aaron Ekblad 78 12 42 56 Keith Yandle 82 7 59 48 Sergei Bobrovsky 64 38 5
Mike Matheson 79 10 33 44 Anton Stralman 67 2 22 16 S. Montembeault 22 11 1
Mark Pysyk 78 3 17 26 Mackenzie Weegar 66 5 16 52
Josh Brown 59 1 2 73 Ian McCoshen 23 1 4 14
Restricted Free Agents: Malgin
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Henrik Borgstrom – The 21-year-old quickly became one of the top prospects to own in fantasy
hockey after a strong freshman campaign with Denver (NCHC). And after an even better sophomore season, the
Panthers quickly signed him and he became coveted in pretty much all formats. But he didn‟t make the team last year
and because he ended last year with just 18 points in 50 games for Florida, some impatient poolies have become uneasy.
Rest assured – he‟s fine. He adapted to (and flourished in) the AHL immediately and was called up for good in December.
And while he struggled initially, he did get better. Despite declining quarter-over-quarter ice time reductions (from 14
minutes, to 12, to 10 minutes per game), his production actually improved a little. Patience is required, likely several
years of it.
 Barkov tallied 43 points in his last 26 games. Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
That‟s with less power-play time and fewer Aleksander Barkov 100 93 Sam. Montembeault 100%
minutes overall: his fourth quarter TOI was
21:16, which was his lowest quarter. The other Jonathan Huberdeau 93 82 Henrik Borgstrom 100%
three quarters of the season he averaged at least Vincent Trocheck 82 67 Jayce Hawryluk 90%
22 minutes per game. The difference? When both
Evgenii Dadonov 73 65 Denis Malgin 80%
Dadonov and Huberdeau were on his line. His two
most productive quarters – the second quarter Mike Hoffman 73 63 Owen Tippett CUT
and the fourth quarter – those were his main Keith Yandle 67 57 Josh Brown 60%
linemates. The other quarters may have had one
or the other of those linemates, but never both, Aleksi Heponiemi 85 55 Kevin Roy CUT
and he wasn‟t nearly as productive. Serron Noel 75 55 Dryden Hunt 50%
 Vatrano had 28 points in the last 51 games Henrik Borgstrom 80 53 Aleksi Heponiemi CUT
(45-point pace). His first healthy season as a pro. Grigori Denisenko 85 53
 Hoffman had a 17-game points streak Owen Tippett 80 48
beginning with Game 3, tallying 20 points during
Brett Connolly 58 45 Sleeper Pts %
that run.
Denis Malgin 73 45 Vincent Trocheck 72 20%
 Matheson‟s TOI is creeping upwards year-over-
year, hitting the 22:19 mark last season. His Aaron Ekblad 60 43 Mike Matheson 45 20%
production is also trending upwards, albeit slowly Mike Matheson 58 43 Frank Vatrano 50 20%
each year. He‟s getting very little PP time, despite
Jayce Hawryluk 65 43 Denis Malgin 50 15%
the obvious talent. He managed six PPPts despite
just 48 seconds of PP time per game (down from Frank Vatrano 65 42 Henrik Borgstrom 55 10%
1:04 the year prior). He‟ll continue the slow Kevin Roy 58 32
progression until Yandle starts to slow. The wait
on him will be similar to the wait on John Carlson Dryden Hunt 62 30
with the Caps.
 Dadonov scored 44% of his even-strength points on 30% of his shifts with Barkov and Huberdeau. It was already
noted above that the three of them together boosted Barkov‟s numbers. Obviously, this goes both ways. Putting them
together helps everyone involved. If they get broken up (or injured) it will certainly skew the end results.

Injury Alert: There are no red flags to report from Florida for fantasy league owners – everyone is heading into camp on
a healthy note. The most serious injury last year was sustained by captain Derek MacKenzie in Game 1 of the season
when a shoulder injury, followed by surgery, knocked him out for the campaign. MacKenzie retired and was named an
assistant on new coach Joel Quenneville‟s staff in June … Aside from MacKenzie and the usual run of short-term injuries
over a long NHL schedule, Trocheck‟s 27-game absence from late-November to mid-January due to a fractured ankle was
the biggest downer to report from the hospital ward. The latter has become a valuable fantasy contributor in all formats
and is looking to bounce back in a big way … On a related note, free agent acquisition Connolly often ran into injury
troubles early in his career but has been relatively healthy for the most parts of the last two seasons. The 27-year-old
arrives to Florida from Washington with personal career-high numbers in his back pocket: 81 GP, 22-24-46.
Goaltending: The fourth-worst defensive team in terms of goals allowed welcomes a new coach in Quenneville, and
optimism is high in South Florida. A proven winner with three Stanley Cups as bench boss in Chicago, one of
Quenneville‟s first tasks will be to develop a more structured system of play that will magnify the talents of yet another
high-priced acquisition, 30-year-old goalie Sergei Bobrovsky. Signed as a UFA to a seven-year contract this past
summer, „Bob‟ brings two Vezina trophies with him, a career 2.46 goals-against average, and a .919 save percentage
over his time spent in Columbus. Backing up the workhorse will be rookie Montembeault, who enjoyed a nice 11-game
stint during the Panthers‟ second half last year. Just 22, Montembeault now shows a ledger of 80 games played, with a
3.24 GAA and a .894 SV% after two seasons in the AHL. The Bobrovsky-Montembeault completes the makeover in the
Panthers‟ nets – Roberto Luongo retired after a brilliant 19-year career, while veteran James Reimer joined Carolina as
an unrestricted free agent … While Philippe Desrosiers and Chris Driedger provide minor-league depth and jostle for
organizational ranking, some observers believe that seventh-round pick in 2015, Ryan Bednard could one day challenge
for an NHL job as he begins his pro trek this fall. Signed out of Bowling Green University, Bednard was one of college
hockey‟s top netminders and sported a 20-8-4 win-loss log to go with a sparkling 1.77 GAA and a .927 SV% in 2018-19.
Dobber’s confidence in Bobrovsky being the starter: 100%
Breakout Threshold: Barkov (416 GP) took a big step forward last year, which is not surprising considering he was
approaching the 400-game BT threshold for big forwards. The fact he produced at a 119-point pace in the final quarter
makes you wonder if he has yet another gear … Dadonov (211 GP) matched his production from the year before but was
a point per game in the final quarter last year as he crossed 200 … Ekblad has underwhelmed so far but has been fairly
consistent with point totals in the high 30s. He‟s at 391 games now and will cross 400 in October. This could finally be his
breakout campaign … Connolly (6-3, 195) qualifies as a big forward and currently sits at 427 career games. He
contributed at a 59-point pace in the final quarter last year right after crossing 400 … Vatrano (5-9, 201) qualifies as a
small forward in height but he is rather heavy to be considered undersized. With that in mind, he crossed the 200-game
BT for regular-sized forwards late in the season and finished strong with a 43-point pace in the second half.
Contract Year: Signing Quenneville and Bobrovsky

surely occupied a lot of general manager Dale Blocked Shots Hits
Tallon‟s time this past summer, but the job doesn‟t
end there. Two of his most dangerous offensive Mike Matheson 129 Noel Acciari 196
players, Hoffman (36 goals, 70 points) and Dadonov Mackenzie Weegar 106 Jayce Hawryluk 183
(28 G, 70 Pts), will be in line for new Panthers deals
by next July 1, or be searching elsewhere for big, fat Mark Pysyk 99 Mark Pysyk 148
paychecks. Bottom-pair defender Pysyk is in the Aaron Ekblad 90 Vincent Trocheck 143
same boat as the two aforementioned but retaining
Anton Stralman 89 Josh Brown 127
him won‟t be as critical … As mentioned, Tallon‟s job
at the bargaining table will be plentiful. On the RFA Keith Yandle 84 Frank Vatrano 124
side of the business, a slew of young Panthers will be
Frank Vatrano 66 Mackenzie Weegar 124
looking for extensions, so 2019-20 could mean a
next-level-caliber season from any one of them. Each Colton Sceviour 64 Aaron Ekblad 119
in their own role, Borgstrom, Hawryluk, Weegar, Aleksander Barkov 61 Colton Sceviour 94
McCoshen, Brown, and Montembault could all develop
into solid contributors for the team‟s future. Josh Brown 54 Anton Stralman 81
PIM: Michael Haley, an excellent source for penalty minutes, was placed on waivers last February and claimed by San
Jose, with whom he had previously spent three seasons. Since then, the policing role in Florida has been taken over by
Brown, a strapping 6-5, 25-year-old rearguard. Strictly a defensive type, Brown should soon be regarded as one of the
league‟s fine pugilists. Aside from Brown, blue line mate Weegar and winger Hawryluk play with grit, and the possibility
for a few points is greater with them than it is with Brown. However, the best combo for points-plus-PIM on the club may
just be Trocheck. A potential point-per-game player, the 26-year-old is just entering his prime and will get you approx.
50 sin bin minutes during an average year. His robust 54 PIM in 55 contests last campaign – his highest rate in a season
thus far in the NHL – may not have been something out of the ordinary, either, as he competes with spirit.
Plus-Minus: Most of this team was in the red last season, bottoming out with the two Mikes – Hoffman and Matheson –
at minus-24. So, how do you turn this ugly number on its head? Simple – acquire a two-time Vezina winner. Bobrovsky
will see to it that Florida players are in the black. Adding Stralman doesn‟t hurt, either. Count on them to be plus-5, to as
high as plus-20 for the top guns.

Dobber Advanced… PANTHERS
 Kudos to future Selke winner
Barkov for both hitting 96 points and
facing the toughest competition, as
well as taking far more faceoffs in
the defensive zone versus offensive
zone. With Acciari now on board,
Barkov gets freed up. He‟s this
team‟s Bergeron.
 Impressed by Malgin‟s possession
numbers relative to competition. It
shows that he can handle more
responsibility and with that should
bring more production.
 Ekblad is the defenseman
shouldering the toughest workload,
with Matheson and Yandle also
taking on a surprising amount. The
latter two struggled with that a bit.
With Stralman on board to take all
this, look for Matheson and Yandle to
get more offensive zone starts (that
means points).
 Vatrano is looking like a
legitimate top sixer. Strong
possession player, good scorer – he
may be able to hold Connolly off
from taking his spot in the top six.
 Trocheck‟s 5on5 S% (below)
indicates a nice rebound is
forthcoming, health permitting.
Vatrano‟s and Hoffman‟s as well.
 Hoffman‟s 5on5 S% of 6.6% is a funny one because his personal S% was too high at 14.2%. Bottom line: his goal
total (36) was too high and assist total too low (34).
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
JON. HUBERDEAU C 82 45.9 993 0.907 8.6 51.13 64.1 76.7 80.6 70.8 3.6
ALEKSANDER BARKOV C 82 42.4 1006 0.901 10.5 48.62 66 66.7 72.7 56.4 3.1
MIKE HOFFMAN C 82 55.8 975 0.908 6.6 49.49 64.6 67.3 71.4 63.6 2.9
EVGENII DADONOV R 82 49.3 1005 0.903 10.2 49.45 63 56 68.4 34.7 2.8
FRANK VATRANO C 81 49.8 972 0.911 6.1 50.28 31.6 68.4 75.6 50 2
KEITH YANDLE D 82 47.8 991 0.909 8.2 49.4 66.7 48.4 30.3 75 2
VINCENT TROCHECK C 55 47.3 984 0.918 6.6 51.19 45.8 57.6 52.6 65 1.9
HENRIK BORGSTROM C 50 55.8 979 0.893 8.6 47.81 23.6 60 52.4 77.8 1.8
JAYCE HAWRYLUK C 42 55.4 960 0.882 7.8 48.3 3.1 75 73.3 100 1.8
DENIS MALGIN C 50 58.3 971 0.896 7.6 51.36 9 69.6 68.2 100 1.5

Los Angeles KINGS
Ilya Kovalchuk 71 23 45 18 Anze Kopitar 80 27 75 30 Dustin Brown 78 21 55 32

Alex Iafallo 78 14 34 20 Jeff Carter 62 17 39 34 Tyler Toffoli 77 21 44 25
Carl Grundstrom 70 13 26 42 Adrian Kempe 81 15 35 46 N. Prokhorkin 60 15 32 22
Kyle Clifford 65 7 18 77 Michael Amadio 70 8 23 12 Trevor Lewis 65 11 20 26
Austin Wagner 67 11 22 43 Jaret Anderson-Dolan 19 1 5 4 Matt Luff 30 5 10 10
Mario Kempe 15 1 3 2 Martin Frk 12 1 5 2

Drew Doughty 82 10 53 52 Alec Martinez 73 6 24 19 Jonathan Quick 58 27 2
Derek Forbort 65 2 15 56 Ben Hutton 63 3 17 28 Jack Campbell 26 7 1
Joakim Ryan 64 2 14 22 Sean Walker 63 5 14 18 Cal Petersen 4 2 0
Matt Roy 50 1 9 12 Paul Ladue 54 4 11 18
Restricted Free Agents: A. Kempe
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Tyler Toffoli – I have a lot to say about Toffoli in the Advanced section, so be sure to review
that as well and I‟ll try not to re-hash it here. Something happened to him midway through 2017-18 that made his
production hit a wall. He had 51 points in his last 122 games (34-point pace, exactly what he finished with last season).
He‟s been tried with every linemate under the sun but nothing seems to be working. His play has been fine, he‟s doing
the right things out there to push the play north. Bad puck luck can only explain a little bit of this, it has to be something
in his head. I haven‟t given up on his talent or his upside, I just don‟t know if he has the mental fortitude to break out of
this nonsense. Perhaps new coach Todd McLellan can help him get on the right path. Statistically though, I don‟t have the
answer. I‟d love to smack the table and say “Toffoli is bouncing back to his 30-goal, 60-point ways. Done!” But I can‟t. All
I can say is that he can still do it, but I would only pay a cheap price to roll the dice on it.
 Iafallo played the entire season on the Kopitar – Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
Brown line, but his hot first half (21 points in 39 Anze Kopitar 92 75 Nikolay Prokhorkin CUT
games) didn‟t continue into the second half (12 in
43). Close to 100 minutes on the power play, but Alex Turcotte 85 67 Carl Grundstrom 60%
just six PPPts. He has second-line upside, but Arthur Kaliyev 83 62 Sean Walker 60%
doesn‟t belong on the first line.
Drew Doughty 65 53 Jaret Anderson-Dolan CUT
 When coach John Stevens was fired on Gabriel Vilardi 75 53 Matt Luff CUT
November 19, Kovalchuk was leading the team in Akil Thomas 75 50 Gabriel Vilardi Inj.
scoring (14 points, 19 games) with Toffoli second
(11 points). Interim coach Willie Desjardins didn‟t Tyler Toffoli 70 48 Sheldon Rempal CUT
like Kovy at all – often benching or even scratching Dustin Brown 60 48 Akil Thomas CUT
him. His PP ice time per game was cut by 33%.
Carl Grundstrom 72 47 Kale Clague CUT
That move alone cost him about 10 points last
year. Kovalchuk absolutely benefits the most on Nikolay Prokhorkin 73 45 Cal Petersen CUT
this team under a new coach. Rasmus Kupari 75 45 Tobias Bjornfot 30%
 After Jake Muzzin was traded to Toronto, both Jaret Anderson-Dolan 73 45 Sleeper Pts %
Doughty‟s and Martinez‟s production remained Kale Clague 57 42 Nikolay Prokhorkin 45 20%
stable. However, Walker‟s numbers jumped to 0.35 Jeff Carter 63 40 Carl Grundstrom 40 15%
points-per-game over the 20 contests. If he makes
the team, the former undrafted college star could Ilya Kovalchuk 65 40 Matt Luff 40 15%
be one to watch. Alex Iafallo 63 38 Tyler Toffoli 55 10%
Adrian Kempe 65 37
 Kempe has yet to show any production at the
pro level in either Sweden or North America. Sheldon Rempal 67 37
However, he had six points in eight games at the Matt Luff 68 35
World‟s in May. And at the 2016 WJC, the Swede
had eight points in 10 games. Don‟t expect the
offense to be coaxed out of him this year, but if he could take a step forward, we can maybe make that call for 2020-21.
 Doughty has a five-year good year/bad year thing going. He‟s been following up a 44- to 46-point season with one in
the 50s or 60s. If you believe in that sort of thing (he had 45 last year and was minus-34).

 Prokhorkin is having difficulty adjusting to the smaller ice surface and not having a good camp at all. He may also
have a European out clause if he gets cut, making him a big risk at this point.
Injury Alert: Hampered by back troubles since his draft year, Vilardi skated in only four games during all of 2018-19
and was unable attend the development camp this past June. Definitely a situation to monitor, as Vilardi‟s rehab
continues. In late July, September camp was a not a sure thing, either, and some wonder if he will ever return at all …
Acquired from Toronto in late January, Grundstrom, still a rookie entering 2019-20, finished his season in Los Angeles
with concussion symptoms following game No.82. … As far as the most notable injuries sustained during in the season
are concerned, Lewis had missed 38 games due to a broken foot when he returned in mid-February, while both goalies,
Quick and Campbell, missed roughly a quarter-season‟s worth of games each because of knee surgery. Even Kovalchuk
went under the knife for an ankle injury in December, resulting in 10 games on the shelf … Forbort has a back injury and
will miss the first couple of weeks of the season, so youngster Bjornfot could get in a nine-game look.
Goaltending: Despite posting a 3.38 goals-against average, the highest of his 11 full seasons in the NHL, as well as his
worst save percentage ever at .888, Quick is still the man in the Kings‟ net. In fairness to the 33-year-old, the Kings
were a sorry lot last year, finishing 30th overall in the standings, second-last in goals scored, and 10th in goals allowed.
Will new coach Todd MacLellan tighten up things defensively and do better with this group than Willie Desjardins did?
That‟s far from a guarantee if we take a quick peek at the rag-tag defensive corps – Doughty and Martinez excluded …
Now 27, Campbell proved he still had some of that promise bestowed in him when he was drafted by Dallas as the 11th
overall pick in 2010. In what was essentially his first full year in the NHL, Campbell flashed a 2.30 GAA to go along with a
stingy .928 SV% in 31 outings. He should continue to provide solid support unless Kings brass decides to used him as
trade fodder because they judge that Petersen is ready to play a more prominent role at Staples Center. Dobber’s
confidence in Quick being the starter: 99%
Breakout Threshold: Coming off a down year, A. Kempe is currently off the radar to many people. He had a decent first
full NHL campaign and he‟s at 187 career games so better days may be ahead. He should cross 200 by the end of
November … Iafallo (157 GP) is a bit farther away and might not have enough time to impact his final numbers, but he
could be in for a strong second half as he eclipses 200 around the end of January.
Contract Year: A true test of Rob Blake‟s ability as a general manger is forthcoming. How will he lift the Kings out of the
doldrums? Surely, he has designed a plan to refresh his on-ice personnel as of this campaign. Right? If so, don‟t be
surprised if some, or all, of Toffoli, Lewis, Clifford and Forbort fetch some future parts by the next Trade Deadline and in
due time before they reach unrestricted free agency next summer. As past winners of the Stanley Cup, those first three
Kings should attract contenders looking to bolster their lineups for the next postseason run. Depth players LaDue, Ryan
and M. Kempe are also playing for new deals before
2020 UFA … Elsewhere, Blake surely hopes to pay Blocked Shots Hits
reasonable RFA extensions to Grundstrom and
Alec Martinez 164 Carl Grundstrom 169
Prokhorkin because that‟ll mean they realized some
of their potential and enjoyed solid 2019-20 Derek Forbort 150 Dustin Brown 162
campaigns. As for Wagner, Walker, Frk, Luff, and
Drew Doughty 119 Austin Wagner 153
MacDermid, the upcoming season will be determining
with regard to their NHL aspirations. They, too, would Matt Roy 85 Drew Doughty 141
be RFA at the end of 2019-20. Joakim Ryan 83 Derek Forbort 114
PIM: Tough, industrious, relentless, and physical. Sean Walker 65 Alec Martinez 105
Great to see if you‟re particularly fond of that brand Anze Kopitar 63 Kyle Clifford 104
of hockey. But this is 2019-20, so let‟s put that aside
and look at what‟s in place. If you‟re looking for Alex Iafallo 50 Alex Iafallo 91
points-plus-PIM, Doughty, who hasn‟t missed a game Nikolai Prokhorkin 46 Adrian Kempe 87
in five seasons, provides the best combination
(45/44) but last year‟s PIM total was the second- Paul Ladue 45 Trevor Lewis 78
lowest of his 11-year career, so let‟s hope that‟s not
a new trend. Just 22, A. Kempe looks like a player from that old version of the Kings. He plays hard, drives the net and
possesses underrated skill. He may be limited in terms of offensive numbers, but he‟s still young and a 20-25 goal, 30-
assist producer with about 60-75 PIM is attainable in his case. On just a pure PIM scale, Clifford led the club with 96 last
season (to go along with 11 goals, btw), while blueliner MacDermid, 25, and wing Bokondji Imama, 23, are two fearsome
farmhands that can rack them up. Unfortunately, a full-time gig in the NHL is not a sure thing for either one.
Plus-Minus: After Muzzin and his plus-10 left for Toronto, the Kings‟ top player in this category was Clifford at plus-4.
Doughty was at the bottom (minus-34) and Kovalchuk had minus-26. The team had 13 players with a minus-8 rating, or
lower. A new coach will help, as will a healthy Quick, but nothing can save this porous defense. Expect another season
with players between minus-2 and minus-15. Do not expect their big five-man unit to again dip below minus-20 though –
at least that much will improve.

Dobber Advanced… KINGS
 With a new coach, the way the
players are rolled out and leaned on will
change, but we can still pick up some
tidbits. Such as Kopitar and Brown
shouldering all the defensive work and
struggling a little. Now you know why
their production suffered. A true
checking line would help both players,
especially Kopitar.
 Kovalchuk was also out of his
element, out against the top lines. The
rumors you hear about his lacking a
defensive bone in his body are true.
Shelter him a little and he‟ll get points.
 All the offensive zone starts were
being wasted on pluggers because the
coach couldn‟t trust them. Who cares?
Put the pluggers in for defensive draws,
risk giving up the odd goal, and use the
offense for your skilled guys. Carter,
Kopitar, Brown and Doughty are the
most offensively talented players on the
team and all of them were starting their
shifts in their own zone. Nonsensical.
 Toffoli was a possession monster,
creating far more chances while on the
ice than giving up. He also had a low
5on5 S% (below) of just 6.5%. All signs
point to his not only being capable of
giving more, but actually doing it. Keep
expectations realistic for him, but
absolutely consider him a „buy low‟.
 Wagner led the team in Pts/60? Wagner led the team in Pts/60. With just 8:56 TOI per game, he still managed 12
goals and 21 points. His 91.3% IPP is ridiculously high, pretty much saying he‟s doing it all himself when he‟s out there
with Tommy Stonehands and Jimmy Lunchbox. He was heavily sheltered, but his possession numbers weren‟t terrible.
What an excellent player to have on the fourth line and I‟m curious to see what a bit more ice time – and upgraded
linemates – would do. Upside tops out on the second line, but he‟ll likely wind up a two-way third liner in the long term.
 Besides Toffoli, Carter‟s 5on5 S% was low at 6.2%, indicating an upwards production market correction is in order.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
AUSTIN WAGNER L 62 54.1 1016 0.925 9.1 47.78 1.1 91.3 91.3 0 2.3
DUSTIN BROWN L 72 42 993 0.91 8.3 45.84 58.8 63.8 69.8 48 2.1
ANZE KOPITAR C 81 39.7 994 0.91 8.4 46.29 62.4 64.5 61.9 70.4 2
ILYA KOVALCHUK L 64 52 983 0.907 7.6 44.94 58.9 70.8 83.3 50 2
MICHAEL AMADIO C 43 58.6 1006 0.906 10 50.52 13.7 59.1 61.9 0 1.8
MATT LUFF R 33 56.8 1020 0.926 9.4 44.22 12.7 68.8 71.4 50 1.8
KYLE CLIFFORD L 72 43 1003 0.933 7 52.19 4.7 72.4 71.4 100 1.7
TYLER TOFFOLI C 82 51 979 0.914 6.5 52.04 45.3 56.7 65.9 33.3 1.4
JEFF CARTER C 76 46.4 989 0.927 6.2 46.63 54.3 55 50 59.1 1.4
ALEX IAFALLO C 82 43.8 993 0.913 8 47.27 35.7 58.9 57.4 66.7 1.4

Minnesota WILD
Jason Zucker 81 25 59 34 Eric Staal 82 24 59 37 Mats Zuccarello 74 19 57 38

Zach Parise 62 19 43 23 Mikko Koivu 70 14 39 32 Kevin Fiala 81 24 52 38
Jordan Greenway 81 18 36 49 Joel Eriksson Ek 69 9 21 26 Ryan Donato 77 16 42 14
Luke Kunin 75 16 33 42 Victor Rask 67 8 21 16 Marcus Foligno 80 9 23 64
Nico Sturm 41 2 12 14 Ryan Hartman 74 11 28 60
J.T. Brown 40 2 7 23

Ryan Suter 81 7 48 36 Jared Spurgeon 74 12 38 18 Devan Dubnyk 65 30 2
Matt Dumba 78 17 55 46 Jonas Brodin 74 3 23 26 Alex Stalock 23 8 1
Greg Pateryn 60 1 9 22 Louie Belpedio 47 3 10 20
Nick Seeler 71 1 8 74 Brad Hunt 68 7 28 12
Restricted Free Agents: Fiala, Eriksson Ek, Belpedio
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Kevin Fiala – As fantasy owners, all we can do is bank on the best odds. And other than a
proven track record of prolific production, we have to use opportunity. Or the combination of both. In the case of Fiala,
his opportunity-o-meter is at the max and the machine is smoking. GM Paul Fenton gave up a season-and-a-half of
Mikael Granlund for this guy, and the only way to make Fenton look like a genius is if Fiala thrives. He has been getting,
and will continue to get, premium ice time and top PP time with the most ideal linemates. As a 22-year-old who already
has a 48-point season under his belt and has just reached that magical 200-game Breakout Threshold, I‟m bullish on
Fiala both this year and long term.
 While Dumba was healthy (first 32 games), the Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
offense was going swimmingly. Mikael Granlund Kirill Kaprizov 83 63 Luke Kunin 100%
was at a point-per-game, Parise was almost the
same, Suter had 26 points in 32 games and even Matthew Boldy 85 60 Nico Sturm CUT
Spurgeon‟s points-per-game average was 0.59. Jason Zucker 70 58 Louie Belpedio CUT
After Dumba suffered a season-ending injury,
Kevin Fiala 72 55
everything fell apart. Suter had 21 in his next 50,
Granlund fell to a point every two games and was Mats Zuccarello 70 55
traded, Spurgeon slipped to 0.48 points-per- Matt Dumba 65 55
game, Parise declined by 20%. Poolies may
underestimate the domino effect of Dumba‟s Eric Staal 73 53
return to health on the rest of the team. Zach Parise 70 50
Ryan Donato 75 50
 Donato arrived in Minnesota and promptly
posted two points in his first game. He had points Ryan Suter 55 48
in five straight to start, and had 15 points in his Jordan Greenway 70 47
first 15 games. His S% and 5on5 S% was
unsustainably high and he came back to earth Mason Shaw 75 47 Sleeper Pts %
with just a point in seven games. Do not overrate Joel Eriksson Ek 68 43 Ryan Donato 52 20%
based on those first 15 games. Luke Kunin 70 42 Luke Kunin 43 10%
 Granlund was Staal‟s linemate and Staal had Mikko Koivu 57 42 Louie Belpedio 35 10%
41 points in 62 (0.66) games before the trade. Jared Spurgeon 48 40
After the trade he had 11 in 19 (0.58). It‟s not
Nico Sturm 63 35
much, but it is something. Staal definitely carries
a risk unless he can form chemistry with ex- Ryan Hartman 55 30
Rangers teammate Zuccarello. Louie Belpedio 50 29
 Speaking of Zuccarello, he started last season

with 15 points in 30 games. Then he caught fire, going through the hottest spell of his career with 25 points in 18
games.
 Koivu actually started last season with 19 points in the first 20 games. After that he had 10 points in 28 games as
coach Bruce Boudreau leaned on him more and more in only defensive situations and his PP production dried up.

Injury Alert: It‟s always tough to take when you‟re deemed out for the season, even more so when you‟re a 23-year-old
(at the time) d-man that‟s headed for his best campaign to date. That‟s what happened to Dumba during last year‟s first
half when confronted with surgery to repair a pectoral muscle. Fortunately, the procedure was deemed a success and the
young star will be ready to resume where he left off. An all-around defender, Dumba still has lots of upside to uncover,
as his 12 goals and 10 assists in only 32 games at the time of the injury will further attest to … Another tough break for
the Wild occurred just 16 games later when Koivu injured the ACL and meniscus in his right knee. He, too, went under
the knife and is for all intents and purposes ready to make up for the lost time in the new season … On the acquisition
front, UFA signee Zuccarello missed a total of 30 matchups between his two teams in 2018-19, the Rangers (13 games,
groin) and the Stars (17 games, arm), respectively. The injuries didn‟t affect his play during the Stars‟ postseason,
though, where he put up 11 points in 13 games … There‟s not much else to report from the injury ward going into the
new season. Even the oft-injured Parise enjoyed a relatively healthy campaign (for him) by skating in 74 outings.
Goaltending: It‟s still sorta hard to believe that Dubnyk was placed on waivers and looking for a job just five years.
Since then, he‟s been one of the busiest and best goalies in the NHL and 2018-19 was no different: 67 games, a 2.54
goals-against average and a .913 save percentage. That‟s now four seasons in a row that he‟s toiled in at least 60 games
– would have five but he came up short by just two in a 2014-15 campaign split between the Wild and the Coyotes. At
33, the 6-6 Dubnyk still has a few years of top-notch „tending left in him, and he‟s supported by a solid group of
defensemen whose top-four is comprised of Suter, Dumba, Brodin, and Spurgeon … Thirty-one- year-old Stalock knows
his role and will forever hold his peace as he‟s finally found his niche as backup in Minnesota. Signed for three more
years, Stalock should hold the spot until prospect Kaapo Kahkonen, 22, is fully prepared to make the transition from
Iowa to Minnesota. As a first-year pro on North American soil, Kahkonen was named to the AHL‟s midseason All-Star
Game. Dobber’s confidence in Dubnyk being the starter: 100%
Breakout Threshold: Fiala (223 GP) should have broken out last year. Instead, he disappointed, was traded and had an
even weaker finish. He still has time to bounce back but it is possible his peak was reached the year before at 48 points
… Dumba appeared to be taking another step forward before an injury ended his season. He should hit 400 games by
late January so look for him to have a strong finish to the year.
Contract Year: Parise and Suter still eat up more than $15 million in cap space, so the Wild will need to continue
making sure they can pay all of their core players. Up for potential UFA status in 2020, Koivu and Spurgeon will surely
tighten Minnesota‟s purse strings. Luckily, Paul Fenton, last year‟s general manager, loosened up the budget a tad during
the Trade Deadline when he dealt Mikael Granlund (to Nashville) and Charlie Coyle (to Boston). Depth player Brown will
also be looking for a UFA-style deal … Kunin and Greenway, for their part, are two promising youngsters that a team
needs to build a strong supporting cast with, so expect them to sign good deals as restricted free agents before July 1.
PIM: Don‟t push Minnesota „cuz they can play it wild,

too. Ahem! Seriously, the Wild can handle Blocked Shots Hits
themselves when push comes to shove. Seeler may
have led the club with only 64 penalty minutes but Jared Spurgeon 139 Marcus Foligno 196
he‟s a tough-as-nails defender that will go through a Jonas Brodin 120 Greg Pateryn 146
wall for his mates. Big Foligno (55 PIM) can chuck
knuckles, while 6-6 Greenway, who‟s still growing Ryan Suter 117 Joel Eriksson Ek 128
into his body, and Kunin can play it feisty. Hartman Greg Pateryn 111 Matt Dumba 123
was added via the UFA route this past summer and
Nick Seeler 107 Luke Kunin 112
would have led the club with his 83 PIM in 74 GP. He
needs to play physical to be at his best. And finally, Matt Dumba 101 Ryan Hartman 107
let‟s just say that Dumba would be an even greater
Mats Zuccarello 58 Nick Seeler 86
points-plus-PIM performer if he would just unleash
the beast within, but reality is that the Wild needs Zach Parise 53 Jason Zucker 80
him on the ice. Louie Belpedio 52 Ryan Suter 76
Plus-Minus: Every regular still in the lineup at the Luke Kunin 47 Jared Spurgeon 75
end of the season was in the negative. This ranged
from Spurgeon‟s minus-1 to Brodin‟s minus-15. Prior to the Dumba injury, half the team was in the positive or hovering
close to even. But a lot of veteran players have been shed since then. Look for the range this season to be between plus-
5 and minus-10 for most players.

Dobber Advanced… WILD
 The jumble of letters in the middle-
right area: Greenway (dark orange), Staal
(lighter blue) and… Pontus Aberg (dark
blue). Aberg drove possession, at least
once he left Edmonton. Only turning 26 in
September and still a free agent in late
July, he deserves a shot somewhere.
 Further testament to his Golden Boy
status, Fiala was given the sweetest ES
minutes here. The offense hasn‟t been
there since arriving in MIN, but if this
implementation continues, it will.
 Only 21 years old? Don‟t matter –
you‟re our top shutdown forward. Coach
Bruce Boudreau has pushed Kunin out
there against the other team‟s top line
despite just 19 career NHL games heading
into last season. He struggled with that
type of workload, but the fact that this is
how Boudreau sees him is indicative of the
situations he will get in the near future
(i.e. not offensive ones).
 Donato was heavily sheltered and he
did okay with that. Certainly, the numbers
were there offensively. But those will slow
once he loses that sheltering.
 Boudreau leaned on Fehr and Brown
exclusively on own-zone draws against
weaker lines. It‟s possible that newcomer
Sturm takes that over for Fehr.
 Fiala, Greenway, Zucker and Koivu each had low 5on5 S% suggesting a more productive season is ahead. Koivu is
being used more defensively, but if Sturm pans out as a defensive option, then Koivu‟s production would receive a
noticeable bump. Zucker has been a very strong possession player and almost certainly will rebound.
 On Carolina and again here, Rask has turned into a liability. His possession numbers are bad and have been for a
couple of years now, and the offense just isn‟t there anymore. Most of us knew this was a bad trade immediately (the
Wild gave up Nino Niederreiter), and so far, we‟ve been exactly right. Do not touch.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
ZACH PARISE L 74 54.8 988 0.9 8.8 51.43 57.4 72.6 75.4 64 2.6
ERIC STAAL C 81 54.1 1004 0.929 7.5 52.61 56 59.8 65.5 48.4 2.1
MIKKO KOIVU C 48 48 988 0.922 6.6 52.16 46.4 69 61.5 80 2
JASON ZUCKER L 81 54.7 992 0.931 6.1 53.04 44.9 65.6 68.3 63.6 1.8
MATT DUMBA D 32 54.9 983 0.907 7.6 51.4 52.3 47.8 37 75 1.8
RYAN SUTER D 82 55.2 992 0.918 7.4 51.43 61 42.3 38 53.6 1.3
LUKE KUNIN C 49 47.2 990 0.906 8.4 47.82 26.8 56.7 57.1 50 1.3
JARED SPURGEON D 82 53.4 996 0.919 7.7 51.74 48.4 44.8 44.3 44 1.3
KEVIN FIALA L 19 61.6 977 0.915 6.2 51.89 60.6 73.6 73.7 73.3 1.3
JORDAN GREENWAY L 81 54.1 986 0.922 6.4 48.57 13.3 66.7 75 0 1.3

Montreal CANADIENS
Jonathan Drouin 77 19 53 23 Max Domi 82 20 67 73 B. Gallagher 76 28 52 45

Tomas Tatar 81 24 56 32 Phillip Danault 80 12 50 37 Artturi Lehkonen 75 14 37 24
Nick Suzuki 30 5 13 8 J. Kotkaniemi 79 15 44 30 Jordan Weal 72 13 32 20
Paul Byron 74 18 38 29 Nate Thompson 74 4 14 17 Joel Armia 64 14 28 16
Ryan Poehling 65 9 22 26 Nick Cousins 71 8 25 30 Dale Weise 5 0 1 2
Charles Hudon 16 1 5 4 Matthew Peca 2 0 1 0 Riley Barber 10 0 3 2

Shea Weber 68 15 40 32 Jeff Petry 81 11 39 26 Carey Price 63 33 4
Victor Mete 76 2 19 6 Ben Chiarot 79 4 23 53 Keith Kinkaid 23 9 1
Noah Juulsen 54 2 19 14 Cale Fleury 65 2 11 20
Gustav Olofsson 50 0 13 6 Brett Kulak 67 6 18 36
Christian Folin 15 0 3 10 Mike Reilly 30 1 8 10
Xavier Ouellet 8 0 2 0
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Jonathan Drouin – He‟s had his four full seasons in the NHL and hasn‟t come up with more than
53 points. But he‟s still only 24 and I‟m not ready to slide a ceiling over him and declare him tapped out. Drouin has
another gear. Will he find it later in his 20s like a Brad Marchand, or will he forever be that teasing „what could have
been‟ type of guy? All the metrics point to similar stats in the year ahead, with only one showing so much more. And
that‟s his first-quarter stats. His ice time was 18:12 and his PPTOI was 4:02 per game, easily the highest quarter of the
season. He tallied 17 points in 20 games, with seven of them on the power play. Those are the Drouin numbers we have
been waiting for. But his ice time was cut back and his PP time cut in half (though he still led all forwards in PPTOI). If
coach Claude Julien ever gives him that kind of leash again, that‟s when we‟ll see the Drouin.
 If you throw enough of it at the wall, maybe Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
something will stick. The Habs seem to be Max Domi 80 68 Noah Juulsen INJ
employing Edmonton‟s strategy of having a few
spots secured by good, reliable players and then Cole Caufield 90 63 Ryan Poehling CUT
having two dozen borderline players competing for Jonathan Drouin 87 62 Gustav Olofsson INJ
five or six depth spots. Whenever you see a full
Nick Suzuki 82 57 Nick Suzuki 75%
depth chart like this in the Guide, you know that‟s
what we‟re looking at. Of particular interest are G. Tomas Tatar 68 55 Riley Barber CUT
Olofsson and Juulsen. Two young defensemen with Jesperi Kotkaniemi 77 55 Cale Fleury 75%
some upside who are very injury prone. If either of
them can stay healthy they could be of fantasy Phillip Danault 65 53
interest. Brendan Gallagher 65 52
 In the final month of the season, coach Julien‟s Ryan Poehling 73 50
favored top PP line was Drouin, Weal and Artturi Lehkonen 72 48
Gallagher. He seems to like Weal.
Shea Weber 57 43
 Petry took a huge hit in his production once
Josh Brook 55 42 Sleeper Pts %
Weber returned. In 24 games before Weber‟s
return, Petry had 17 points (0.71). He had 29 in 58 Alexander Romanov 53 42 Jonathan Drouin 65 20%
(0.50) after that. Jeff Petry 50 38 Jesperi Kotkaniemi 55 20%
 Lehkonen had zero PPPts last season. He was a Paul Byron 55 36 Ryan Poehling 40 15%
part of the second PP unit in the first half, and then
Jake Evans 70 36 Jordan Weal 45 10%
was removed from the power play entirely. It says
here that he gets another shot, at least early on. Riley Barber 68 35
 Another positive for Drouin – when Andrew Jordan Weal 63 32

Shaw was out of the lineup with an injury, Drouin Joel Armia 57 32
tallied 14 points in 15 games with four on the
power play. Now that Shaw is with Chicago, it changes the PP dynamic, possibly in Drouin‟s favor.
 Kotkaniemi was a very impressive rookie and he obviously has a bright future. I don‟t feel he will be an elite
offensive, No.1 center but rather a Patrick Marleau or possibly a Patrice Bergeron type. Ascension to that level will be
gradual, always assume fourth season until he shows something different.
Injury Alert: Everyone on the current roster is headed to September camp on a healthy note. In fact, Byron was the
only returning regular that didn‟t participate in 2018-19‟s last game of the schedule because of a nagging wrist injury
that was tended to in the offseason. In total, Byron, who has matured into a valuable, all-around player since arriving to
La Belle Province, took part in only 56 games because of various ailments throughout the year. Previously a somewhat
brittle player because of his smallish size and no-holds-barred play, he has recently packed on much-needed muscle and
was coming off of two seasons that saw him miss just one contest … Team captain Weber began his 2018-19 campaign
at the 25th-game mark after fully recovering from his serious knee injury that had knocked him out for the season at the
26-game mark the year before. The 34-year-old didn‟t show much offensive slowdown by blasting in 14 goals and
collecting 33 points in the 58 matchups he took part in … Elsewhere of note, bottom-six forward Armia missed a stretch
of 25 games in November/December because of a knee injury but returned with no ill-effects to finish with 13 goals in 57
outings on the season. UPDATE: Poehling suffered a concussion and is out indefinitely. May miss start of season or may
not.
Goaltending: The Habs exceeded expectations in 2018-19 and one of the main reasons for their turnaround was, of
course, the bounce-back season Price enjoyed. Still one of the best, if not the best, clutch goalies in the game, Price
racked up 35 wins with a 2.49 goals-against average and a .918 save percentage over 66 games. In 2017-18, the worst
of his 12-year NHL career, he showed 16 wins, a 3.11 GAA and a barely-respectable .900 SV%. Only 32 heading into the
new season, there‟s still absolutely no reason to think Price has embarked on the downward trend of his career.
Remember, goalies get better with age (as long as their health and athleticism is still at peak form). Moreover, Montreal‟s
defensive corps has been upgraded noticeably during the last year, while its forward group now demonstrates a greater
commitment to two-way play – both factors that bode well for its netminders‟ and team defensive numbers … Off to
resume his career back home with Jokerit, Helsinki of the KHL, Antti Niemi (3.78 GAA, .887 SV%) endured a difficult
season behind Price and will be replaced by Kinkaid, who signed a one-year deal as a UFA this past summer. Kinkaid‟s
stats-line (3.36 GAA, .891 SV%) wasn‟t markedly better than Niemi‟s, but he did enjoy some good stretches during the
first half of New Jersey‟s season when he was acting as the go-to guy on the league‟s 29th overall club. In February, at
the Trade Deadline, Kinkaid was dealt to Columbus but didn‟t see a sliver of action the rest of the way … The future looks
bright down the road. Team USA standout at the most-recent WJC, Cayden Primeau (25 wins, 2.09 GAA, .933 SV% at
Northeastern, HE), has shot up the Habs‟ chart, while AHL Laval farmhands Charlie Lindgren and Michael McNiven show
legit potential. Dobber’s confidence in Price being the starter: 100%
Breakout Threshold: Weal has bounced around a bit but found new life in Montreal with 10 points in 16 games to close
the year (51-point pace). He has 169 games, so he should hit the 200-game BT by December. A breakout season could
be in the works … Byron achieved the 400-game BT for small forwards last year and simply continued to produce
numbers close to what we expect from him. He is what he is at this point … Lehkonen (221 GP) had a personal-best year
as he eclipsed the 200 mark. Prior to his weak finish, he was contributing at a 41-point pace in the first half. This should
be considered his upside moving forward.
Contract Year: The upcoming campaign showed Blocked Shots Hits

prove to be headache-free for general manager Marc Shea Weber 137 Jeff Petry 175
Bergevin when it comes to matters of the bargaining
kind. Only depth-easily-replaceable players are Jeff Petry 134 Ben Chiarot 145
headed for unrestricted free agency next summer: Ben Chiarot 126 Shea Weber 141
Weise, Peca, Thompson, Folin, and Kinkaid …
Victor Mete 102 Noah Juulsen 130
Otherwise, looking for extensions of the restricted
kind by next July 1 will be Domi, Cousins, Hudon, Brett Kulak 82 Paul Byron 126
Mete, Juulsen, and McNiven. Of course, Domi, who
Noah Juulsen 80 Joel Armia 114
has attained his next level of performance in
Montreal, will be the most important new contract to Phillip Danault 59 Brett Kulak 113
settle. While the upcoming year will be crucial for all Gustav Olofsson 56 Artturi Lehkonen 110
concerned, the progress recorded, or not, by Mete
and Juulsen will be telling for the Habs‟ scheme-of- Jesperi Kotkaniemi 45 Nick Cousins 109
things moving forward. Paul Byron 42 Brendan Gallagher 96
PIM: He‟s not his old man, Tie, who sits third on the
NHL‟s All-Time penalty minutes board with 3,515 – yes, you modern-day enthusiasts read that number correctly – but
Max does display the temperament required to do battle in the NHL‟s roughest rinks. His team-leading 80 penalty
minutes, coupled with his breakout 72 points in 2018-19, make him one of fantasy hockey‟s best points-plus-PIM
contributors. Just 24, it‟s safe to say that there‟s even a smidgen of upside left to uncover. Free agent newcomer Chiarot
plays a rugged game from the back end and collected 62 PIM in 78 games with last year‟s Winnipeg Jets. Thanks to a
booming blast from the point, he, too, has a little more to give offensively after posting career numbers (5-15-20).
Plus-Minus: This category was the wild west for Montreal, with players ranging from Tatar‟s plus-21 to Peca‟s minus-14.
Peca is getting edged into irrelevance, ditto for Hudon (minus-9), and the team traded Nicolas Deslauriers (minus-12).
Next lowest after those three was Drouin‟s minus-8. With a better, more stable backup goaltender in Kinkaid, and more
consistent play from Drouin, the overall range for this team should slightly shift to between minus-5 to plus-15.

Dobber Advanced… CANADIENS
 Danault is a very strong possession
player and is starting to become a
poor man‟s Patrice Bergeron. He is
„the‟ guy for the Habs when they need
a shutdown forward – and yet he pops
53 points. Gallagher and Tatar also
dominated.
 The orange bubble tucked around
Gallagher and Tatar belongs to Weber.
He is the only dependable defenseman
on the team right now, other than
Petry who is getting a bit of sheltering
thanks to always being paired with
depth guys such as Karl Alzner, Reilly
and Jordan Benn. Since the Habs
didn‟t acquire any stud defensive
defensemen to take over, Weber will
continue to miss out on offensive zone
starts at even strength.
 As expected for a rookie,
Kotkaniemi was receiving sheltered
minutes. He did well with them and
should handle bigger challenges in the
year ahead.
 Drouin and Domi have ugly darker
orange bubbles below the Quality of
Competition 0.0 line, meaning they
are giving up chances more than they
are creating them. Domi could be in
for a bit of a decline, his 5on5 S%
(below) further exemplifies this.
 It was only 16 games, but Weal was quite impressive, both in his possession data (Usage Chart) and his other metrics
(2.4 Pts/60, 5.7% 5on5 S% to indicate an upward trend).
 Besides Domi, Shaw (now with Chicago) is in for a downward correction with his production. His 11.5% 5on5 S% is
unsustainable puck luck for him. Weal, Armia and Kotkaniemi have positive (upwards) indicators with their below-
average 5on5 S% numbers.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
MAX DOMI C 82 51.3 1039 0.932 10.7 51.12 53.7 75.8 77.2 68.8 3
ANDREW SHAW C 63 50.3 1036 0.921 11.5 52.28 42.5 73.4 71.9 85.7 2.8
TOMAS TATAR L 80 49.2 1021 0.935 8.6 58.92 48.2 75.3 79.4 57.1 2.7
JONATHAN DROUIN L 81 51.2 995 0.91 8.5 51.86 60 67.9 64.3 72.7 2.3
PAUL BYRON L 56 56.9 1015 0.928 8.7 53.07 22.6 64.6 69.2 16.7 2.3
BREN. GALLAGHER R 82 48.8 997 0.91 8.7 59 51.4 63.4 68.2 43.8 2.3
PHILLIP DANAULT L 81 45.9 996 0.909 8.7 56.79 10.1 65.4 64.4 66.7 2.2
JESPERI KOTKANIEMI C 79 61.7 995 0.927 6.8 57.24 39.6 73.9 78.4 55.6 1.9
JOEL ARMIA R 57 55.8 984 0.925 5.9 53.26 37.7 59 57.1 60 1.5
SHEA WEBER D 58 47.9 1013 0.938 7.5 53.58 58.8 47.8 50 46.2 1.5

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Nashville PREDATORS
Filip Forsberg 71 32 67 32 Ryan Johansen 80 16 68 56 Viktor Arvidsson 73 37 66 30

Kyle Turris 70 12 37 40 Matt Duchene 77 28 62 14 Mikael Granlund 79 19 61 28
Calle Jarnkrok 76 12 32 16 Nick Bonino 77 15 32 18 Craig Smith 78 19 38 26
Daniel Carr 38 6 14 6 Colton Sissons 72 12 35 26 Austin Watson 66 9 27 105
Miikka Salomaki 16 1 3 2 Frederick Gaudreau 27 1 3 4 Rocco Grimaldi 68 13 26 18
Rem Pitlick 15 2 4 4 Eeli Tolvanen 12 2 5 2

Roman Josi 76 14 54 42 Ryan Ellis 67 10 42 20 Pekka Rinne 51 27 3
Mattias Ekholm 81 8 37 40 Dante Fabbro 79 5 28 34 Juuse Saros 36 19 3
Dan Hamhuis 72 1 11 34 Yannick Weber 55 1 12 18
Alexandre Carrier 38 1 8 24 Matt Irwin 35 1 6 17
Steven Santini 30 1 7 13
Restricted Free Agents: Grimaldi (signed)
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Mikael Granlund – Granlund had 38 points in 40 games to start last season and was in for a
career year, but then he hit a wall and was traded. He didn‟t do much in Nashville and overall in his final 39 games he
had just 16 points. So, is he caught in the Nashville low-offense trap? Well, yes and no. Part of his slowdown last season
was impacted by Matt Dumba‟s injury. Losing the most talented offensive rearguard hurts the forwards too, especially on
the power play. He also had a wife who was actually in labor when he got the phone call telling him he was traded (in a
hospital room). So, let‟s excuse his start in Nashville. But on the other hand, he is going to play on the second line with
Nashville, albeit a talented second line. So, his numbers will be fine…but still limited. Good, but not as good as they could
have been had he still been in Minnesota.
 Watson was on a 250-Hits full-season pace over Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
his last 30 games, and he also had 35 Hits in six Filip Forsberg 82 70 Dante Fabbro 95%
playoff games. If he can stay healthy, he can be a
league leader in this category, to go along with Ryan Johansen 80 68 Alexandre Carrier CUT
what could be 30 to 35 points. Matt Duchene 80 65 Rem Pitlick CUT
 Turris and Duchene may be logical linemates for Mikael Granlund 80 65 Anthony Richard CUT
Granlund, since the top line is etched in stone. But Viktor Arvidsson 73 63 Eeli Tolvanen CUT
Turris had zero chemistry with Granlund last year.
After Granlund arrived, Turris had just three points Roman Josi 65 55
in 16 games. We‟ll see if Duchene can be the glue Eeli Tolvanen 85 55
that brings them together.
Ryan Ellis 65 45
 This isn‟t just a new team because they added Craig Smith 55 43
Duchene and Granlund. This is also a new team
because they didn‟t have their own stars in the Rem Pitlick 70 42
lineup last year. Arvidsson missed most of Dante Fabbro 52 42
November and December with a broken finger, and
Philip Tomasino 72 42 Sleeper Pts %
Forsberg missed all of December with a UBI. PK
Subban missed most of November and December, Mattias Ekholm 55 40 Mikael Granlund 70 20%
Turris December and January. Patrick Harper 68 40 Dante Fabbro 40 15%
 Ekholm had just three points over the last 21 Kyle Turris 65 38 Kyle Turris 55 10%
games after starting with 41 in 59. As Subban‟s
Colton Sissons 48 37 Rocco Grimaldi 35 10%
former partner, he may be paired up with Fabbro
which would be an anchor on his production. Nick Bonino 55 35 Ryan Ellis 55 10%
 With Subban gone, that spot on the first PP unit Anthony Richard 62 35
is available. For years Ellis has been on the second Calle Jarnkrok 62 33
PP unit. This could be a big opportunity for him.
Just five of last year‟s 41 points were via the power play.
 Duchene has hit the 70-point mark twice. Last year, when he was playing for a contract, and 2013-14…when he was,
er, playing for a contract. In between the two, with a contract in his back pocket, he put up four seasons of 41 to 59
points.

Injury Alert: The Preds continue to play a relentless style of play, so injuries can be a factor. While team regulars were
all present for game No.82, that‟s not to say ailments weren‟t part of the story during the regular season that passed. As
far as fantasy hockey notables are concerned, let‟s point out Arvidsson‟s broken thumb in the first half, Forsberg‟s upper
body injury, also in the first half, and Turris‟ total of 25 contests scattered about between late November and early
February because of a lower body issue. While the latter suffered his worst season (55 GP, 7-16-23) since his early days
in Phoenix (2007-11), the former pair continued their NHL trek as offensive cogs. In fact, Arvidsson, who has entered his
prime as a 26-year-old, even recorded a career-high 34 goals in only 58 games, while Forsberg, just 25 and one of the
league‟s finest two-way wingers, still managed to put up 28 goals and 50 points despite missing 18 contests. Remember,
he‟s the guy Washington traded away for Martin Erat and Michael Latta back in 2013?
Goaltending: We‟re not there yet but it‟s getting closer. More precisely, that‟s the day Rinne, one of the league‟s finest
goalies in the last dozen years, will eventually relinquish the No.1 duties to 24-year-old Saros. Maybe by not much, but
Rinne‟s workload has been slowly dwindling in the last few years. Last season‟s total of 56 games played was his lowest
for a full-major-injury-free season since the 58 he dressed for in 2009-10. Moreover, Rinne‟s current contract, signed last
November in 2018, was for just two years and runs out at the end of 2020-21. In the meantime, the 37-year-old this
upcoming November will continue to benefit from what the club in front of him has done so well for a few years now, and
that‟s play stellar defensive hockey. As for Saros, he knows the score. By the time Rinne‟s contract is up, he should be
entering his peak years as a goalie. While Rinne‟s number of GP has declined lately, Saros‟ has been going up. The 31
contests he stopped pucks in last year was a career high, as were the 17 wins. Latch onto those numbers a 2.62 GAA and
a .915 save percentage and you‟ve got an ever-improving athlete just waiting to break through. Rinne and Saros, the
perfect goalie tandem … For insurance, the Preds went out and acquired Connor Ingram from the Tampa Bay
organization this past summer. A third-round pick as recently as 2016, Ingram most particularly posted a 2.26 GAA and
.922 SV% in 22 games with Syracuse of the AHL last year. Former San Jose Sharks member, Troy Grosenick, is also
toiling in the system. Dobber’s confidence in Rinne being the starter: 75%
Breakout Threshold: There is nobody in the coming season that fits in with the criteria here, but it may be a good idea
to invest in Arvidsson in keeper leagues. Smaller players usually take longer to hit their peak and given his early career
success you have to wonder if there is another gear. Arvidsson currently sits at 278 games so he will not cross 400 until
late next year.
Contract Year: Holy moly, general manager David Poile better have a plan (which he surely does, of course) because
his upcoming season‟s wheeling-and-dealing dossiers will be plentiful. No less than eight Predators are headed for 2020
unrestricted free agency: Josi, Granlund, Smith, Watson, Hamhuis, Weber, Irwin, Salomaki, and Gaudreau (not Johnny,
eh). Naturally, team captain Josi and Trade Deadline acquisition, Granlund, will be dealt with the most attention. Trading
P.K. Subban to New Jersey over the summer has surely alleviated Poile‟s budget to work in a solid extension for Josi
(most especially). Smith, Watson and Hamhuis will
follow, while Weber, Irwin, Salomaki, and Gaudreau Blocked Shots Hits
will need big years or risk having to find employment
elsewhere for the 2020-21 campaign. Roman Josi 127 Austin Watson 152
Ryan Ellis 127 Steven Santini 139
PIM: The Preds are a gritty bunch but aside from
Watson – 39 in 37 games, after collecting 123 in 76 Mattias Ekholm 111 Colton Sissons 117
GP the year prior – you may want to look elsewhere Dante Fabbro 99 Filip Forsberg 94
for penalty minutes. More so now that Wayne
Dan Hamhuis 85 Ryan Johansen 86
Simmonds (New Jersey), Cody McLeod (UFA) and Zac
Rinaldo (UFA) aren‟t with the team anymore. In a Steven Santini 76 Craig Smith 77
points-plus-PIM setup, you will get good value from
Nick Bonino 72 Mattias Ekholm 68
Ekholm, though. The lanky 6-4 rearguard plays an
ornery game and collected a career-high 44 points to Austin Watson 59 Roman Josi 62
go with 47 PIM. Colton Sissons 47 Alexandre Carrier 57
Plus-Minus: This was a great team for the plus- Mikael Granlund 45 Matt Irwin 57
minus category and they‟ll be even better this year
with more goals and a healthier lineup. Ekholm and Bonino led the way at plus-27, and most players were above plus-5.
Turris and Granlund were each minus-6, but the addition of Duchene will help tremendously. There will always be a
couple of stragglers at just below zero, but for the most part, the players on this team will be safely above plus-5.

Dobber Advanced… PREDATORS
 Don‟t underestimate Watson‟s impact
on the lineup. Before he returned, the
Preds went with Ryan Hartman as the third
man on that shutdown line and it didn‟t
work as well. Watson‟s possession
numbers were bad because he faced the
toughest competition and the most
defensive zone starts. With that trio intact
(Bonino, Sissons), it gives the second line
a lot more leeway. Now that the Preds
have an even better second line (with
Duchene), this is even more impactful.
 Grimaldi was a possession stud and
Preds fans loved him. But he was
sheltered. He can certainly handle tougher
assignments and as a smaller player he
needs longer to make his mark. He is now
26 years old. His 5on5 S% (below) was
among the lowest in the entire league, so
he‟s trending upward if he gets the chance
to make it happen.
 Ekholm and Subban were strong
possession players as a pairing. Stronger
than the Ellis – Josi duo. It would be folly
to think that rookie Fabbro can step in and
replace Subban right away. Whoever he is
paired with could see a drag on their
production as they play more carefully to
cover up any mistakes.
 Turris wasn‟t pushing possession as well
as a second-line center should, and required special treatment. Often his linemates would be out there while someone
else took the draw if the opposition had their big line out there. He‟ll be on the third line now, and at times he‟ll be a
winger. On the plus side, his 5on5 S% was very low (5.4%), indicating an upward projection on his production.
 Arvidsson‟s IPP on the power play (below) was criminally low. He was on the top unit, but wasn‟t getting his stick on
the puck when they scored. He has never been a good PP producer (career best is nine PPPts) because his talent is
coming in on the rush, deking and just being elusive in general. Setting up and keeping still isn‟t in his wheelhouse. Last
year‟s four PPPts in nearly 180 minutes of PP action is bad even for him though. He‟ll eventually get it, just like Boston‟s
Brad Marchand did (Marchand had just two PPPts when he was 27, and eight when he was 28 – last year he had 34 at
the age of 31). We may be looking at strictly ES points from Arvidsson for a couple more years before he figures it out.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
VIKTOR ARVIDSSON L 58 65.7 1012 0.92 9.2 54.53 55.3 64 69 28.6 2.6
FILIP FORSBERG L 64 65 1000 0.911 8.9 55.35 55 69.4 66.7 76.9 2.5
RYAN JOHANSEN C 80 65.7 995 0.908 8.7 55.27 57.5 63.4 60.5 76.2 2.5
CRAIG SMITH C 76 58.4 1017 0.934 8.3 52.8 47.3 62.3 69.8 44.4 2
AUSTIN WATSON L 37 27.6 1024 0.93 9.4 46.33 1.3 57.1 55.6 100 1.8
KYLE TURRIS C 55 66.9 982 0.928 5.4 50.52 40.8 65.7 63 75 1.6
NICK BONINO C 81 29.9 1039 0.945 9.4 48.09 31.2 55.6 59.6 33.3 1.6
ROMAN JOSI D 82 50.7 1004 0.927 7.7 51.78 55.9 54.9 51.9 70.6 1.6
ROCCO GRIMALDI C 53 59.4 982 0.935 4.7 57.54 0.6 92.9 92.9 0 1.5
COLTON SISSONS C 75 32.7 1018 0.933 8.5 50.15 21.9 50 55.1 22.2 1.5

New Jersey DEVILS
Taylor Hall 76 31 87 38 Nico Hischier 76 20 57 28 Kyle Palmieri 72 24 52 36

Jesper Bratt 69 16 48 12 Jack Hughes 79 25 72 26 Nikita Gusev 77 26 65 14
Blake Coleman 79 20 34 76 Travis Zajac 74 14 37 24 Wayne Simmonds 79 20 38 95
Miles Wood 69 15 30 87 Pavel Zacha 69 14 32 26 John Hayden 71 7 16 50
Nathan Bastian 35 2 6 38 Kevin Rooney 65 6 18 28 Joey Anderson 18 0 4 4
Jesper Boqvist 12 1 3 2 Brett Seney 15 0 3 4

Will Butcher 79 6 46 20 P.K. Subban 72 11 43 73 Cory Schneider 52 25 3
Andy Greene 76 4 19 12 Damon Severson 79 9 38 52 Mackenzie Blackwood 36 16 2
Mirco Mueller 57 2 14 20 Sami Vatanen 65 5 29 28
Ty Smith 0 0 0 0 Connor Carrick 56 4 19 34
Restricted Free Agents: Zacha
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Pavel Zacha – After three seasons of a few healthy scratches and minor injuries, as well as
mostly defensive deployment, we still don‟t know what we have in Zacha. But here‟s what we do know: his points-per-
game average has improved each year, his ice time has increased each year, and that he‟s a big guy (6-3, 210) who
needs a little more time than most to find his rhythm. Other promising items about Zacha – he was sent to the AHL for
four games in November and he picked up five points. He also ended the season with eight points in eight games for the
big club. Those are intriguing enough to keep him on my radar. I would have pushed things even further, but he‟s always
suffering those five- or 10-game minor injuries, which can‟t be good for development or confidence momentum.
 Hischier tied Zacha in the Forum‟s lowdown Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
voting. His pace increased from first to second Jack Hughes 102 84 Ty Smith CUT
year, despite really having nobody to play with
since Hall was injured. Don‟t underestimate how Taylor Hall 97 83 Kevin Rooney 70%
impressive that is. With Hall back and Hughes and Nico Hischier 85 72 Nathan Bastian CUT
Subban in the lineup, the top PP unit just improved
Nikita Gusev 85 63 Jesper Boqvist 50%
by a thousand percent (roughly). A PP unit that
Hischier is on. Kyle Palmieri 72 53 Joey Anderson CUT
 Butcher and Smith are the only talented puck- Ty Smith 60 52

moving defensemen who shoot left. Subban, Jesper Bratt 68 50
Severson and Vatanen shoot right. So, advantage
Jesper Boqvist 73 50
Butcher when it comes that sweet new power play.
He led the Devils defensemen in PP ice time last Michael McLeod 72 50
season. And since Subban knocks Severson off the P.K. Subban 70 48
unit, Severson‟s outlook takes a hit. If Butcher fails
to seize this advantage, then Smith will take future Will Butcher 55 45
opportunities away from him from 2020-21 Pavel Zacha 72 43 Sleeper Pts %
onward. It has to be now.
Blake Coleman 57 40 Nikita Gusev 70 25%
 Bratt was on a nice run of 13 points in 13 Damon Severson 52 40 Jesper Bratt 55 25%
games when his season was cut short with a lower-
body injury in March. It took him that long to play John Hayden 62 37 Nico Hischier 70 20%
regularly with Hischier and the two had nice Miles Wood 57 36 Will Butcher 50 15%
chemistry. Hischier or Hughes, Bratt is in for a
Sami Vatanen 55 35 Ty Smith 40 15%
great linemate this year regardless.
Travis Zajac 53 35
 Palmieri was on a torrid pace when he had 33
points in 31 games to start the season. Then Hall Wayne Simmonds 55 33
got injured. Without Hall, Palmieri had 17 in 43.
 Before suffering an upper-body injury in November, Subban had 16 points in 24 games. He never did truly recover,
managing just 15 in 38 after his return. So – no, he hasn‟t lost his touch. But he is more prone to injury as he ages (he is
currently 30 years old).
 Gusev led the KHL in scoring with 82 points in 62 games, 13 points over the next player. He tied for Team Russia‟s
scoring lead at the Worlds with some guy named Kucherov (16 points in 10 games). The 27-year-old is legit and he‟s in
his prime. Could be Panarin II.

Injury Alert: Knocked out of action during Game 33 because of a knee injury that later required arthroscopic surgery,
Hall, the Devils‟ offensive kingpin and collector of 93 points in 2017-18 is ready for an encore. He almost returned to
action late last season but cooler heads prevailed and he instead took the time to fully recover, train and focus on the
upcoming campaign throughout the summer. He still managed to finished fifth in team scoring with an 11-26-37
offensive log in those 33 outings … Aside from Hall‟s mishap, a slew of injuries hobbled the 29th overall Devils in 2018-19.
Let‟s run down a few of the more impactful ones for fantasy hockey purposes. As has been the case for most of his NHL
career thus far, two-way defender Vatanen missed a bunch, as he took part in only 50 games – he didn‟t finish the
season and dressed for just four of the last 33 due to concussion and illness. No official word during the summer as to
what‟s up in his case, so be sure to stay tuned as the season approaches. Twenty-year-old Bratt was sidelined with a
lower-body injury for the campaign‟s last 15 games, but he returned to action for Sweden during the IIHF World
Championship held in May, so that‟s good news. And of course, there‟s Schneider. The Devils‟ former go-to goalie has
suffered through hip and abdomen injuries over the last two years, resulting in just 66 games played during that time. In
fact, that number of outings was roughly what he recently used to play during one season‟s worth of games. Fortunately,
he seemed to be on the right track upon his return from last February on, so a bounce-back year is on his mind.
Goaltending: Once a dependable, workhorse goalie, Schneider‟s injury troubles over the last two seasons surely put a
damper on team performance in New Jersey. Blackwood‟s so-so 2017-18 campaign with Binghamton of the AHL had
raised some question marks in his case. Those questions were put to rest when the 22-year-old stood tall during
Schneider‟s absence last year. In 23 assignments, Blackwood won 10 games thanks to a 2.61 goals-against average and
fine .918 save percentage. He‟ll spell Schneider this season, see his share of matchups, and gain maturity en route to the
No.1 job at some point down the road. After February 15, Schneider was 6-6-2, 2.28 GAA, .927 SV% with 57.1% Quality
Starts – an indication that he may be back into form … Arguably not as deep as one would hope, the Devils goaltending
position also lists Evan Cormier with Binghamton of the AHL, and Gilles Senn (Davos, Swi), a sound prospect that signed
a two-year ELC last April. Dobber’s confidence in Schneider being the starter: 80%
Breakout Threshold: Wood finished the year with exactly 200 career games and played his best hockey down the
stretch scoring at a 45-point pace in the second half … Coleman posted a career-best 36 points and currently sits at 180
games. He should hit 200 in November … Severson (361 GP) is coming off a career year and should cross the 400-game
BT for defensemen by January. However, the opportunity to break out might not be there due to the arrival of Subban …
Vatanen already has three years of 30 or more points under his belt and is only 13 games away from 400. Unfortunately,
like Severson, it will be more difficult to be given prime offensive opportunities.
Contract Year: Anytime you‟re a bottom-dweller and faced with the prospect of having to re-sign an elite talent such as
Hall, you know you have your work cut out for you. Especially when that talent is in the prime of his career, wants to win
and, why not, looking for big bucks while he‟s at it. That‟s the specter Devils‟ general manager Ray Shero was already
dealing with these last few months, despite his
sayings that there was no rush to get a deal done.
When healthy and going, Hall is one of the league‟s Blocked Shots Hits
top forwards, it‟s as plain as that, and that comes Andy Greene 173 Blake Coleman 222
with a price that‟s not just monetary. Luckily, in
some ironic way, the Devils picked first overall during Sami Vatanen 105 Nathan Bastian 201
this summer‟s Entry Draft and now have Hughes, on P.K. Subban 92 John Hayden 163
top of UFA additions Subban and Simmonds, to join
Damon Severson 84 Wayne Simmonds 144
alongside Hischier, Palmieri, Severson, Butcher and
Blackwood as pieces to begin the organization‟s Will Butcher 82 Kevin Rooney 117
turnaround and help persuade Hall to stay. Team
Ty Smith 81 Miles Wood 117
captain Greene, Simmonds and Vatanen will also be
up for UFA status in 2020, while Hischier, Bratt, Mirco Mueller 66 Kyle Palmieri 105
Blackwood, Mueller, and Hayden will require Connor Carrick 64 Damon Severson 89
extensions as RFA.
Blake Coleman 51 P.K. Subban 84
PIM: You can do worse than the Jersey boys if you‟re Nico Hischier 49 Mirco Mueller 81
looking for some sin bin minutes. In fact, they‟ll
come with a few points, too. While Wood led the
team for the second year in a row with 91 in just 63 games, he also added 10 goals and 24 points. Just 24 when the
season starts, his 19 markers from one year earlier demonstrate that the potential for a 20-goal, 100-PIM season exists
for him. Veteran Simmonds, 17 goals and 99 PIM between Philadelphia and Nashville, will be out to prove that he‟s not
over the hill at 31, and the same can be said for Subban, who still managed 31 points and 60 PIM in the least productive
year of his career.
Plus-Minus: The entire roster was a negative plus-minus player, with 10 players at minus-10 or worse. That‟s about to
change. Schneider really turned things around in the final month and is finally over his hip surgery. Goaltending will be
stabilized (thus reducing the „minus‟) and more goals will be scored thanks to Hall, Gusev, Hughes and Subban (thus
increasing the „plus‟). Expect this roster to hover between minus-5 and plus-10.

Dobber Advanced… DEVILS
 Only the first line is getting offensive
zone starts. But the arrival of Hughes
changes that dynamic entirely. He‟s going
to get the full Hischier treatment here,
with a bubble past the 54% mark and
likely around the Y axis (0.0 Quality of
Competition).
 Between Hughes and Subban, next
year‟s graph will look a lot different. On
this one you see most players to the left of
the zone start line, which means the team
was taking far more draws in their own
end versus the opposition‟s. That ends
now. The ripple effect of that change is
more opportunity for more points for more
players.
 McLeod was heavily sheltered during his
brief stint, and he still struggled.
 Butcher was also sheltered and he did
well with it, driving possession and
creating chances. As the only returning
veteran with puck-moving skill, he is the
logical defense partner for Subban. That
helps his ES numbers (though it may hurt
Subban‟s).
 Zajac doesn‟t get enough Selke
recognition. That‟s a ton of defensive
minutes right there and he‟s coming away
smiling.
 Zajac, Wood, Coleman and Zacha were a little low for 5on5 S%, indicating a bit of a bump in puck luck is in store
ahead (below).
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
TAYLOR HALL L 33 54 991 0.893 9.8 52.89 64.1 77.1 75.8 80 3.4
JESPER BRATT L 51 44 994 0.913 8.1 48.2 43.6 80.5 83.3 72.7 2.6
NICO HISCHIER C 69 53.4 1006 0.92 8.6 49.3 52.4 58.8 65.5 45.8 2.3
KYLE PALMIERI C 74 51.6 1015 0.922 9.2 47.5 60.9 59.5 56.1 66.7 2.2
TRAVIS ZAJAC C 80 36.5 975 0.901 7.4 47.57 49.4 62.2 69.6 54.5 1.8
MILES WOOD L 63 39.1 986 0.921 6.5 48.7 21.8 61.5 70 33.3 1.7
BLAKE COLEMAN C 78 39 967 0.891 7.6 48.73 13.6 62.1 62.2 37.5 1.6
PAVEL ZACHA C 61 43.8 988 0.912 7.6 46.7 30.5 53.2 51.6 46.2 1.5
DAMON SEVERSON D 82 42.2 986 0.904 8.2 46.45 46.2 45.9 41.9 63.2 1.3
WILL BUTCHER D 78 54.3 990 0.908 8.2 49.8 52.5 36.6 28.1 56 1.2

New York ISLANDERS
A. Beauvillier 76 20 42 14 Mathew Barzal 82 20 75 40 Josh Bailey 80 17 57 20

Anders Lee 82 32 56 52 Brock Nelson 82 23 43 35 Jordan Eberle 80 21 47 18
Andrew Ladd 59 9 24 28 Derick Brassard 67 13 30 30 Michael Dal Colle 60 5 13 18
Matt Martin 66 4 15 67 Casey Cizikas 66 14 26 36 Cal Clutterbuck 72 9 20 36
Tom Kuhnhackl 35 2 6 6 Otto Koivula 23 3 5 10 Leo Komarov 79 7 22 34
Ross Johnston 14 0 3 23 Joshua Ho-Sang 40 3 18 18

Ryan Pulock 75 11 45 26 Adam Pelech 79 6 27 28 Semyon Varlamov 50 25 4
Johnny Boychuk 66 4 19 30 Nick Leddy 80 8 30 18 Thomas Greiss 40 22 4
Devon Toews 72 7 31 18 Scott Mayfield 77 5 21 86
Thomas Hickey 34 2 7 16 Noah Dobson 9 0 3 6
Sebastian Aho 12 0 3 2
Restricted Free Agents: Beauvillier, Dal Colle, Ho-Sang
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Ryan Pulock – The most talented defenseman on the roster and in the organization too. Noah
Dobson may have more upside, but he‟s not there yet and it will be years before he catches up to Pulock‟s complete
game. Right now, Pulock is the most dependable defenseman, which unfortunately means he logs all the defensive
minutes at even strength. It‟s holding his ES points down by 15 or 20 easily. On the power play, his IPP is 81.8%, which
is about as high as it gets. It means that the PP revolves around him when he‟s on it, but the PP minutes are being
wasted on Leddy (who had a PP IPP of 29.5%). Something will give soon – this year or next – but when it does, Pulock
will explode. Trust in him. John Carlson II here.
 Quarter-over-quarter, Leddy‟s ice time dropped Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %

bit by bit. Year-over-year, Leddy‟s ice time has Mathew Barzal 97 80 Joshua Ho-Sang CUT*
dropped bit by bit. In Dobber Advanced you can
see his possession metrics are pretty bad. The Josh Bailey 75 57 Otto Koivula CUT
only reason he‟s not a bottom-pairing defenseman Anders Lee 72 57 Noah Dobson 40%
getting 13 minutes per game and 10 points a
Oliver Wahlstrom 75 54 Sebastian Aho CUT
season is because he still has $16.5M left on his
contract. Stay away. Anthony Beauvillier 70 50 Oliver Wahlstrom CUT
 Nelson is coming off his best campaign by far… Ryan Pulock 62 50

to earn a massive contract, which he got. Eberle Jordan Eberle 70 47
had his worst campaign, but then had nine points
Joshua Ho-Sang 72 47
in eight playoff games… earning a massive
contract, which he got. Beware of these two. This Brock Nelson 62 45
is a big reason why their projections aren‟t great Otto Koivula 70 45
(though Eberle‟s is up 10 points because last
year‟s 37 was not his norm at all). Kieffer Bellows 70 43
Noah Dobson 65 43 Sleeper Pts %
 Toews has made a solid transition to the NHL.
His overall game has earned the coach‟s Bode Wilde 58 39 Ryan Pulock 52 20%
confidence and you can expect 19 minutes TOI this Devon Toews 48 35 Anthony Beauvillier 55 15%
year. But offensively he will be behind both Leddy
(undeserved, but it is what it is) and Pulock. Soon Sebastian Aho 55 35 Joshua Ho-Sang 45 15%
he will be behind Dobson. Overall, his ceiling is Nick Leddy 50 30 Oliver Wahlstrom 45 10%
limited because he will never be the best on this
Casey Cizikas 42 30 Ryan Pulock 52 20%
team‟s blueline. He‟ll be a good, but not great,
producer. Michael Dal Colle 65 30
 Barzal had 41 points in 42 games to start last Andrew Ladd 53 23

season before hitting a wall. He had just 21 in 40
after that. Look at it as a sign of what he can do with little in the way of a supporting cast.
 Anders Lee also dipped in the second half, even in the final quarter when Barzal was put on his line to get them both
going. It didn‟t work and arguably the two just got worse. The two have zero chemistry, making Beauvillier a solid
sleeper pick because he is undisputed as Barzal‟s linemate. Also going for Beauvillier (besides his Breakthrough Threshold
below, that is) – he can play center and is better at faceoffs than Barzal. That‟s handy insurance to have when that line is
out there.
 * Ho-Sang has to clear waivers and I suspect another team will claim him 10/01. Stay tuned…
Injury Alert: Ladd sustained his first major injury and was required to undergo knee (torn ACL) surgery late last season.
There was no official word regarding recovery status during the summer, so, while he most likely will be, we can‟t
confirm if he‟ll be ready for September‟s camp. In 2018-19, Ladd posted a paltry three goals and 11 points in 26 outings
… Elsewhere, Boychuk couldn‟t help out the Isles‟ in their second-round ousting against Carolina and missed the entire
series. He was injured blocking a shot in the opening round of the postseason versus Pittsburgh, requiring about a month
of down time, but should be ready to go … In general, the Isles didn‟t suffer too many bouts of extended time-off
because of the injury bug during 2018-19. Aside from the aforementioned Ladd and Boychuk, blueliner Hickey was hit
the hardest with an upper-body ailment that necessitated a 29-game absence from mid-December to early March.
Goaltending: Enter the reputed Barry Trotz and his long-time goalie coach, Mitch Korn. From the NHL‟s worst defensive
team in 2017-18 to the best last year, the Isles‟ night-day-like turnaround was evidently one of the year‟s top storylines.
Led by Robin Lehner, since departed to Chicago via the UFA highway, and holdover Greiss, the Islanders were the only
team in the league to allow less than 200 goals – 191 to be exact. Arriving to replace Lehner from another end of the
UFA spectrum is Varlamov, from Colorado, who signed a rich four-year contract at an average salary of $5 million per.
For the most part, he‟ll share the duties with Griess, who fashioned an excellent 23 wins, 2.28 goals-against average,
and .927 save percentage ledger over 43 matchups. As for Varlamov (2.87 GAA, .99 SV% in 49 GP), the Avs‟ go-to guy
in nets since arriving from Washington in 2011, he was essentially relegated to backup duties late last season due to the
resurgence of Philipp Grubauer. Over the Avalanche‟s final 23 games, postseason included, Varlamov took to the crease
in only three of them. Still, if you believe the „follow-the-money‟ theory, as we do, expect to see Varlamov receive the
majority of assignments this upcoming season, especially considering that Greiss may also opt to try his hand at
unrestricted free agency next summer once he‟ll be eligible … Jared Coreau was signed as a UFA over the summer to
provide some goalie depth. In the system, Ilya Sorokin remains the jewel. In 40 outings with CSKA Moscow, the 24-year-
old amassed startling numbers for any league: 28-6-4, with a miniscule 1.16 GAA and an absurd .940 SV%. His KHL
contract ends at the end of 2019-20. Dobber’s confidence in Varlamov being the starter: 75%
Breakout Threshold: Barzal (166 GP) had a disappointing second year under a new coach. He should cross 200 games
before the start of 2020 so whatever star level he can reach under Trotz should start to show itself around the mid-point
this season … Lee exceeded the 400-game BT for big forwards last year and unfortunately had a disappointing output. In
addition to losing John Tavares, he also had a weaker second half which included a reduction in ice time on the power
play. His 61-point effort in 2017-18 is likely the most we can expect from Lee moving forward … Beauvillier crossed the
200-game BT late last year and had a disappointing campaign. But he didn‟t hit the mark until March and the year ahead
should finally tell us what we have here.
Contract Year: „Sweet Lou‟ Lamoriello isn‟t always Blocked Shots Hits
so (sweet) when it comes to the negotiation table.
Scott Mayfield 137 Matt Martin 271
Therefore, you need to come prepared with solid
numbers and arguments right off the bat. As Adam Pelech 128 Cal Clutterbuck 221
mentioned above, Greiss is headed for a UFA payday
Ryan Pulock 122 Leo Komarov 196
next summer and circumstances outlined don‟t favor
a return to the Island despite his three (of thus far Thomas Hickey 101 Adam Pelech 166
four) excellent campaigns there. He‟ll either fetch a Johnny Boychuk 96 Ryan Pulock 141
nice return by this season‟s Trade Deadline, or be a
solid free agent acquisition for a team needing an Nick Leddy 87 Casey Cizikas 135
above-average starter-quality „tender. Aside from a Casey Cizikas 59 Scott Mayfield 130
two-year hiatus in Toronto, rugged Martin has been
an Islander for the rest of 10-year NHL career. He Mathew Barzal 56 Johnny Boychuk 116
brings veteran leadership but his role remains that of Devon Toews 54 Anders Lee 103
a fourth-line banger … Hence, Lamoriello‟s most
ardent contract dealings with members of his current Brock Nelson 52 Anthony Beauvillier 87
roster will prioritize the RFA situations of Barzal, most
especially, and those of d-men Pulock and Toews.
PIM: The NHL is far from the days that brawling played a leading role many a night. Nonetheless, when necessary, the
current version of the Islanders can bang with the best of them. Big 6-5 rearguard Mayfield earned full-time employment
last year and led the boys with 68 penalty minutes in 79 games. A former league-leader in PIM, Martin chipped in with
his second consecutive season in the 50s (a paltry number for him), while big, bad Johnston, initially believed to at least
play a semi-regular role on the fourth unit, dressed for only 17 outings en route to 23 minutes in the sin bin. Those three
aside, the most profitable Islander in this department has to be team captain Lee, who collected 58 PIM but also 51
points, which makes him pretty good points-plus-PIM value in this day and age of fantasy hockey.
Plus-Minus: A Barry Trotz team is usually a positive plus-minus team. This was no exception (and that will continue to
be the case). Eberle and Barzal were minus-6 and minus-5, respectively, but the rest of the team was firmly in the black,
with eight players at plus-18 or above. Defensemen and checking-line players are great for this stat. Expect more of the
same thing here.
Dobber Advanced… ISLANDERS
 Jumping out is Ho-Sang and the
way he killed it possession-wise despite
being given mainly defensive-zone
starts. The skill is legit.
 Toews was also very impressive in
terms of driving possession. He was
given offensive minutes against weaker
competition but he could have handled
more. If he does, then early on his
numbers will go down a little.
 Right now, coach Barry Trotz trusts
Pulock implicitly and until the other
young players gain that trust, Pulock
will get defensive minutes at even
strength. Pelech is coming along,
Toews is starting to show promise and
Hickey has been stable in a limited role
as long as he‟s not misused. Each year
I think we‟ll see Pulock‟s bubble shift
further to the right – with production
improving accordingly.
 That steady fourth line (Cizikas,
Martin and Clutterbuck) takes all the
defensive minutes as long as it is not
against top opposition. The third line,
featuring the departed Filppula,
handled the the more difficult lines.
Nelson was out there at center if it was
against the top line in their own zone.
 The young Barzal drives possession
and gets a ton of offensive zone starts.
But if the top line is out to defend him, Nelson comes in, regardless of zone. Eventually, perhaps this year, Barzal will
start to change that. But he‟ll need to improve his 41.6% face-off win rate first.
 Leddy has been getting worse with each passing year as far as possession metrics are concerned. Contract is king,
and it is the only reason he‟s getting any ice time at all.
 Nobody stands out with weird 5on5 S% numbers (below). Each were about where they should be.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
MATHEW BARZAL C 82 61.7 1003 0.923 8 51.66 61.6 82.7 84.6 78.3 2.5
JOSH BAILEY C 82 55.9 1025 0.929 9.6 47.88 51.4 72.7 71.9 73.7 2.4
ANDERS LEE C 82 50.2 1043 0.948 9.5 49.35 59.8 59.3 56.5 66.7 2.2
BROCK NELSON C 82 46.4 1032 0.945 8.7 47.65 50.4 71.6 77.2 50 2.2
CASEY CIZIKAS C 73 35 1033 0.946 8.7 46.83 1.4 75 73.2 0 1.9
JORDAN EBERLE C 78 52.3 1010 0.932 7.8 49.28 57.9 56.9 59.5 52.2 1.7
CAL CLUTTERBUCK R 73 35 1011 0.936 7.6 48.02 26.3 63.9 61.3 75 1.4
ANTHO. BEAUVILLIER L 81 58.3 1004 0.92 8.4 49.24 34.4 54.9 60.5 25 1.4
LEO KOMAROV C 82 43.8 1043 0.946 9.6 44.43 1.4 55.3 56.5 0 1.4
DEVON TOEWS D 48 59.2 1005 0.934 7.1 52.94 40.7 51.4 48.3 66.7 1.3

New York RANGERS
Artemi Panarin 81 30 87 26 Mika Zibanejad 75 31 73 40 Pavel Buchnevich 73 22 52 20

Chris Kreider 73 26 49 58 Ryan Strome 77 19 42 54 Kaapo Kakko 80 28 54 22
Vladislav Namestnikov 78 13 34 40 Brett Howden 72 10 33 18 Jesper Fast 70 9 27 26
Brendan Lemieux 68 13 22 97 Lias Andersson 72 6 19 34 Greg McKegg 58 7 15 14
Filip Chytil 60 12 24 10 Boo Nieves 35 4 11 6 Vitali Kravtsov 60 9 23 10
Vinni Lettieri 23 3 5 12

Brady Skjei 80 6 25 42 Jacob Trouba 74 11 50 58 Henrik Lundqvist 50 18 1
Marc Staal 74 2 11 30 Tony DeAngelo 64 6 34 69 Alexandar Georgiev 36 14 2
Brendan Smith 66 3 15 72 Adam Fox 74 6 28 22 Igor Shesterkin 2 1 0
Libor Hajek 35 1 7 16 Yegor Rykov 55 1 13 18
Restricted Free Agents: Lemieux, DeAngelo
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Pavel Buchnevich – The talent is there, we‟ve all seen it. The consistency is not. But that‟s the
sort of thing that gets ironed out in the fourth year (i.e. the Breakout Threshold). His production has improved, just too
slowly for impatient poolies. Now that superstar Panarin (and fellow Russian) is on the team, his right winger stands to
benefit in a huge way. In this case, by default, that‟s Buchnevich or possibly Kakko. But this favors Buchnevich because
he‟s more mature, is a proven 20-goal NHL goal scorer, and he‟s Panarin‟s countryman. There is some injury risk here,
but if healthy Buchnevich is in line for a big breakout season. But as a bigger forward (6-3), his best years are still
possibly two or three away.
 The Rangers really transformed their team Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
over the last 18 months, but last year‟s Trade Artemi Panarin 97 85 Kaapo Kakko 100%
Deadline saw them move key players Kevin Hayes
and Mats Zuccarello. It freed up lots of ice time Kaapo Kakko 95 78 Lias Andersson 90%
and changed the scoring dynamic. The top scorer Mika Zibanejad 78 73 Adam Fox 75%
on the Rangers after the Trade Deadline was
Pavel Buchnevich 75 55 Vinni Lettieri CUT
actually Strome (15 points in 20 games), followed
by Buchnevich (13 in 19) and Zibanejad (12 in Vitali Kravtsov 83 55 Vitali Kravtsov CUT
20). There is a sliver of a chance that Panarin Chris Kreider 72 53 Yegor Rykov 50%
lines up with Strome instead, in which case his
production would obviously go up. Jacob Trouba 65 53 Libor Hajek 35%
Tony DeAngelo 63 45 Filip Chytil CUT
 Another situation to watch – after the fire sale,
DeAngelo was moved to the top PP unit and Kevin Lias Andersson 70 45
Shattenkirk was moved to the second unit. Brett Howden 70 43
DeAngelo had 21 points in his last 36 games (48-
point pace). I suspect that was just to get a feel Filip Chytil 70 42
for DeAngelo‟s readiness, and they were obviously Adam Fox 57 42 Sleeper Pts %
impressed enough to feel comfortable buying
Ryan Strome 63 40 Pavel Buchnevich 65 25%
Shattenkirk‟s contract out (with severe cap
repercussions, particularly next year). Vlad. Namestnikov 65 38 Kaapo Kakko 70 20%
 Kreider had just five points in the last 17 K'Andre Miller 55 35 Vitali Kravtsov 40 15%
games – this was after the Trade Deadline when Morgan Barron 67 35 Lias Andersson 45 10%
he lost his linemate Mats Zuccarello.
Brady Skjei 48 33 Ryan Strome 52 10%
 Trouba had 32 points in his last 41 games, just Vinni Lettieri 60 30
to tease us with a glimpse of his potential. He had
a great season because Dustin Byfuglien was Brendan Lemieux 60 30
injured so there was PP time to be had and he
took full advantage. His PPPts jumped from three (yep – three) in 2017-18 to 18. Now the Golden Boy for the Rangers,
the PP time will be all his.
 Kreider has had a pretty tight production range over the last three seasons. He‟s been between 0.64 and 0.71, which
is a full-season pace of 52 to 58 points.

Injury Alert: Rangers‟ medical staff wasn‟t very busy this offseason. In fact, last regular season‟s injury ward in
Manhattan was one of the league‟s less frequented, too. Support-forward Fast required surgery in April to repair torn
ligaments and a fracture in his right thumb, while rookie defensive-minded rearguard Hajek, playing in just fifth career
NHL game, sustained a separated shoulder and was knocked out for the remainder of the year in March. Chytil
(undisclosed) also missed the campaign‟s last three outings but there‟s nothing serious in his case. Not that was
reported, anyway. During the season, Buchenvich‟s (thumb) and Howden‟s (knee) 13- and 15-game absences,
respectively, were the most notable of the young Rangers but not so much so that it affected their play in a major way.
Just 21, the speedy Howden (66 GP, 6-17-23) jumped right from the WHL to spend the entire year in New York. He‟ll
play a legit part in the bright future of the Blueshirts.
Goaltending: Agreed, he‟s not the Lundqvist of yesteryear but he‟s still King in New York and should see the bulk of
action in 2019-20. That is, unless one of Georgiev, for the interim, or Shesterkin, the heir, freshly-signed and now in
North America, claim the transition in goal earlier than expected due to whatever reason. An elite, workhorse puck-
stopper throughout his entire NHL and international career, Lundqvist enjoyed some good moments but nonetheless
capped 2018-19 with the highest goals-against average (3.07) and save percentage (.907) of his 14-year Rangers
career. As understudy, 23-year-old Georgiev, who also saw 11 contests with affiliate Hartford of the AHL, won 14 games
and sported a 2.91 GAA with a sound .914 SV% … The plan is (should be) to let Shesterkin get acclimated to the
differences of the game on this side of the planet and have him start in Hartford (for at least half a season, if not the
entire schedule – aside a look-see, of course). Thereafter, considering how young the NHL has become, and to what
extent the Rangers wish to fast-track their rebuild with the furious wave of young talent coming in, it‟s anybody‟s guess.
Just take a look at these numbers: 24 wins, just four losses, a 1.11 GAA and a .953 SV%. Wowza!! In 28 assignments
with St. Petersburg (KHL), Shesterkin allowed just 31 goals. Definitely a future keeper to roll the dice on and stash away
for a bit, eh. Dobber’s confidence in Lundqvist being the starter: 75%
Breakout Threshold: Trouba (408 GP) reached 400 games at the end of last year. Not only did he have a career year,
he also produced at a 64-point pace in the second half and increased deployment on the power play. Clearly, he is now at
his peak … While Buchnevich (6-3, 196) qualifies as a big forward, he is not heavy at all, so he is more of a hybrid. He
currently sits at 179 career games and this past year maintained a 55-point pace in the second half. This year could be
the breakout we‟ve been waiting for.
Contract Year: General manager Jeff Gorton has assembled quite the group of young, burgeoning talent. So, from our
viewpoint, he‟s probably not in any rush to sit down and settle expiring contract situations at least until later in 2019-20.
Even Kreider‟s, an excellent winger that could in the end just be fodder on the trade market to acquire more young
pieces for the future. Fast and Namestnikov will also be potential UFA next summer. The former is a sound, serviceable
support player that may be retained if the price is right, while the latter will need a big year to earn Gorton‟s
consideration, or possibly be traded just like Kreider
… Now 26, Strome, a fifth-overall pick in 2011, has Blocked Shots Hits
slowly been solidifying his status as a legit NHLer
over the last three years. His 19-goal output in 2018- Jacob Trouba 147 Brady Skjei 182
19 bodes well as he enters his prime. He, along with Brady Skjei 122 Brendan Lemieux 139
Georgiev and Nieves will be looking for extensions of
the RFA kind once the upcoming campaign is over Marc Staal 93 Chris Kreider 135
and done with. Kevin Shattenkirk 88 Vladislav Namestnikov 126
Tony DeAngelo 83 Mika Zibanejad 122
PIM: A chip off the old block. Acquired from
Winnipeg at the Trade Deadline last February in a Adam Fox 78 Jesper Fast 120
package-of-a-deal that saw Kevin Hayes head the
Mika Zibanejad 65 Jacob Trouba 114
other way, Lemieux was born to play in-your-face
hockey. He won‟t ever replicate his Father‟s (Claude) Vladislav Namestnikov 56 Lias Andersson 101
gaudy offensive numbers, but will aggravate and Brendan Smith 52 Brendan Smith 91
pester you until the cows come home – just like
Pops. Still, his 12 goals and 108 penalty minutes as a Brett Howden 51 Brett Howden 77
rookie playing just 9:03 of average ice time per game
are pretty good numbers. He‟s worth a later-round pick as a points-plus-PIM guy. DeAngelo is another pesky Ranger with
talent. In what was basically his first full season (amid some healthy scratches) as an NHLer, the smallish but spunky
blueliner amassed 30 points and 77 PIM in just 61 games as a 23-year-old. Keep an eye on his situation coming out of
camp, though, as New York‟s back end corps is crowded and can change overnight because of the numerous candidates
looking for a regular NHL paycheck. Kreider (28-24-52, 57 PIM), Strome (19 goals, 64 PIM) and Smith (71 PIM) also
provide decent value for deep, multicategory leagues. Same for newcomer Trouba, just 25 years old and the producer of
50 points and 58 sin bin minutes for a defenseman.
Plus-Minus: Other than Namestnikov (plus-3), the entire roster was between even and minus-10. With Jimmy Vesey
(minus-10) and Neal Pionk (minus-9) now off to Buffalo and Winnipeg, respectively, the lowest current Ranger last year
is Andersson at minus-6. While the goaltending won‟t improve (not until Shesterkin takes over in a couple of years), the
offense most definitely has. It should make the Rangers fairly safe in this category, hovering around even or just above.

Dobber Advanced… RANGERS
 Lemieux and Lettieri were sheltered
players who struggled with those
minutes. If that continues, they will
never forge a career in the NHL.
 Shattenkirk was given easier
minutes, which is a shame because he‟s
a veteran player getting paid a lot of
money (still getting paid a lot – after
the team bought him out!). But he did
drive possession well enough in that
environment. He‟s not what he once
was, but he is better and more
productive than he showed last year.
His 5on5 S% (below) supports that as
well.
 Namestnikov seems to be getting
molded into a defensive forward. So far
he‟s doing well with that.
 Kreider is a possession beast and
the Rangers would be crazy to move
him.
 Buchnevich is a good possession
player who so far is not being in a
position to thrive offensively. The
Rangers had far more defensive zone
faceoffs than offensive ones. That
should change with the influx of new
talent. Buchnevich will be a big
beneficiary of this.
 Chytil and Andersson were not put in
a position to thrive, again due to the inordinate number of D-zone faceoffs. But Chytil handled the tougher load better
than Andersson handled things against weaker opposition.
 Strome (6.8%) and Chytil (5.2%) each had low 5on5 S% numbers, indicating a production increase in the season
ahead (below). Kreider was a little high (indicates decrease).
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
MIKA ZIBANEJAD C 82 46.5 997 0.909 8.8 48.09 62.8 75.5 77.8 71.9 2.6
PAVEL BUCHNEVICH L 64 47.8 999 0.92 7.9 46.84 43.3 69.1 70.3 66.7 2.3
CHRIS KREIDER C 79 51.2 1023 0.916 10.7 49.68 58.2 53.1 58 41.4 2.3
RYAN STROME C 63 48.5 1003 0.935 6.8 46.81 30.2 63.6 62.2 70 2
JIMMY VESEY L 81 46.8 1001 0.92 8.1 45.97 37.1 61.4 70.5 33.3 1.6
VLAD. NAMESTNIKOV C 78 43.2 980 0.91 7 47.32 30.2 55.4 62.2 21.4 1.5
TONY DEANGELO D 61 44.7 1026 0.929 9.7 45.94 41 41.7 33.9 76.9 1.5
BRETT HOWDEN C 66 46.8 1000 0.912 8.8 42.16 31.6 57.5 61.8 33.3 1.4
FILIP CHYTIL C 75 47.8 971 0.919 5.2 45.92 31.4 60.5 64 53.8 1.3
JESPER FAST R 66 48.4 992 0.921 7.1 47.72 2.6 54.1 55.6 0 1.2

Ottawa SENATORS
Brady Tkachuk 76 23 47 86 Colin White 71 17 49 30 Drake Batherson 77 12 42 28

Mikkel Boedker 75 12 39 8 Chris Tierney 81 12 49 24 Connor Brown 82 14 33 18
Rudolfs Balcers 65 13 28 16 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 74 14 34 28 Bobby Ryan 67 15 35 34
Tyler Ennis 58 12 20 8 Artem Anisimov 71 17 32 23 Anthony Duclair 63 14 31 22
Alex Formenton 42 6 12 20 Filip Chlapik 35 3 12 6 Max Veronneau 21 3 10 4
Logan Brown 24 3 8 8

Thomas Chabot 74 13 58 34 Nikita Zaitsev 74 5 18 28 Craig Anderson 56 17 2
Erik Brannstrom 75 7 28 38 Ron Hainsey 77 3 15 20 Anders Nilsson 34 12 2
Dylan Demelo 76 3 27 34 Mark Borowiecki 54 2 8 78
Christian Jaros 45 1 7 22 Christian Wolanin 32 2 11 10
Maxime Lajoie 41 3 9 18
Restricted Free Agents: White
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Brady Tkachuk – When you look at Tkachuk in your fantasy hockey notes, your immediate
evaluation and forecast is probably correct. It was a fantastic rookie season, as great as can be expected on a weak
team. He was an immediate fantasy asset in goals (22), points (45) and PIM (75), as well as Hits (174), shots (214) and
PPPts (10). You figure he will build on that and you figure correctly. He can do everything brother Matthew can do, and
probably has more offensive upside – but because he has a weaker supporting cast it works out about equal in the end.
One key thing that puts Matthew ahead of Brady is health. It‟s too early to have assumptions, but Brady did have
groin/leg problems last season and the most important thing we need to see this early in his career is a healthy 75-plus
games season. Because of the weaker roster around him, it will take Brady an extra couple of years to start doing what
his brother is doing.
 There are a lot of prospects knocking on the Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
door and a lot of jobs that seem set in stone but Brady Tkachuk 80 65 Rudolfs Balcers INJ
actually aren‟t. Be careful. Young players who are
exempt from waivers still have to win a job – such Thomas Chabot 80 60 Erik Brannstrom 90%
as Balcers, Lajoie, Jaros and Wolanin. Even Duclair Colin White 72 55 Christian Wolanin INJ
isn‟t safe. Training camp is more important for
Chris Tierney 68 52 Drake Batherson 80%
Ottawa‟s roster than it is for most this year.
Drake Batherson 77 52 Max Veronneau CUT
 Once he joined the Sens, Duclair had 14 points
in 21 games. Don‟t be disillusioned by that though. Vitali Abramov 77 50 Alex Formenton CUT
He was given very easy minutes, the most optimal Logan Brown 70 50 Christian Jaros CUT
situation possible to score. He is a risky pick
Erik Brannstrom 60 50 Maxime Lajoie CUT
because if he starts falling deeper in the lineup and
getting tougher minutes, the points will dry up. Jean-Gabriel Pageau 63 43 Logan Brown CUT
 Chabot had 39 points in the first 39 games, Jonathan Davidsson 75 43 Filip Chlapik 70%
giving a hint of what he can do. As the roster Alex Formenton 68 43 J. Norris/J. Davidsson CUT
around him was traded away, his production fell
Rudolfs Balcers 67 43 Sleeper Pts %
and he had just 16 in 31 after that.
Filip Chlapik 72 42 Colin White 60 20%
 Lajoie had two points in the first game, three in
the fourth game and was quickly the darling of the Josh Norris 72 42 Brady Tkachuk 60 15%
fantasy hockey world. He had seven points in six Connor Brown 63 38 Chris Tierney 60 15%
games to start. That‟s way over his head – he had
Max Veronneau 70 38 Drake Batherson 55 15%
just eight points in 50 games after that (closer to
expectation). Bobby Ryan 62 37 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 50 15%
 Tierney has steadily increased his production Mikkel Boedker 55 37

each year, from 0.25 points-per-game in 2015-16, Anthony Duclair 55 32
followed by 0.29, 0.49 and 0.59 last year. He lead
the Sens in faceoffs taken last season (1043) and won 50.9% of them, second to Pageau‟s 53.8%. He started last season
with 18 points in 21 games, but much of that was in brief stints with Mark Stone. Put a quality winger with him and his
potential jumps quite a bit more than it would with most players. He‟s been chained to Ryan though, which will hold him
back for now.

Injury Alert: Aside for a couple of obvious burgeoning young talents like Tkachuk and Chabot, most fantasy hockey
leaguers don‟t flock for Senators‟ news these days. Even less so for the club‟s injury report in 2018-19 as the NHL‟s 31st
overall club enjoyed a pretty healthy campaign (for NHL standards) if you subtract the still-recorded IR stays of Marian
Gaborik and Clarke MacArthur. If required to outline a few ailments sustained during the regular season, let‟s point out
Pageau‟s MIA during the entire first half, as he was healing from a torn Achilles‟ tendon, and Borowiecki‟s total of 29
games on the sidelines due a spate of scattered-about injuries resulting in his usual reckless style of play. In five full
seasons as a Sen, he has never suited up for more than 70 outings. Also: he won‟t set the world on fire offensively, but
UFA newcomer Ennis (from Toronto) missed about a quarter‟s worth of games because of an ankle injury at midseason.
Wolanin has a torn labrum and is out for four months (January)…Balcers will be out until the end of October with a lower-
body injury.
Goaltending: As noted above, the Sens finished 31st overall in league standings last year. Not to be undone by
themselves, they also finished 31st overall in goals allowed. Five different goalies received game assignments in Ottawa
last year, but only veterans Anderson and Nilsson compiled any consequential numbers for fantasy purposes. Always the
workhorse, Anderson toiled in net for more than 50 games for the seventh time in the last 10 years. Unfortunately, he
also posted a 3.51 goals-against average, his highest since entering the NHL 16 years ago. Overall, it was the second-
highest among goalies that played more than 25 games – Cam Ward‟s 3.67 in 33 GP with Chicago was the highest. A
silver lining, his .903 save percentage, which was decent considering the team‟s woeful performance. Now 38, Anderson
should once again tow the team line as he enters the last year of his contract. Acquired from Vancouver just after last
New Year‟s Day, Nilsson showed some interesting numbers as a Sen the rest of the way. Over 24 outings, 11-11-0 with a
2.91 GAA and a .914 SV%. Late-bloomer? Can the big-sized, 29-year-old, who‟s now with his sixth NHL organization,
repeat? Anderson and Nilsson look set to start the season as the tandem in Ottawa. What happens thereafter is
anybody‟s guess, though. The Senators‟ penchant for startling the hockey world with the unexpected has now become a
thing … So, we were saying? Ah yes, Anderson and Nilsson will two the line until one of Filip Gustavsson and/or Marcus
Hogberg are ready to become a thing themselves. Just 21, blue-chip prospect Gustavsson has already played in parts of
two seasons down in the AHL. While 2018-19 can be described as a so-so showing in terms of numbers, one can also
argue that he showed great maturity by crossing the ocean from Sweden to learn the North American game quicker than
anticipated. In 31 matchups last year, the lanky goalie posted a 3.38 GAA and a .887 SV%. As for Hogberg, who can be
classified a deep fantasy hockey dark horse, his stats-line of 21 wins, a 2.32 GAA and a .917 SV% in 39 games with the
Belleville Senators is encouraging. Dobber’s confidence in Anderson being the starter: 90%
Breakout Threshold: There is nobody in the coming season who fits in with the criteria here but if you are in a keeper
league, you may want to consider making room for White. Currently at 94 career games, he is about a year and a half
away from the 200-game BT. If you can afford to be patient this could be an asset that grows significantly over the next
couple years. There is also the chance he breaks out early.
Contract Year: General manager Pierre Dorion (via Blocked Shots Hits
owner Eugene Melnyk, of course) has a veritable
batting lineup of players to deal with (or not) before Ron Hainsey 129 Mark Borowiecki 216
2020 UFA. While Anderson may be dealt for futures Dylan Demelo 128 Brady Tkachuk 205
by this season‟s Trade Deadline because of his
advancing age, Pageau and Borowiecki could (read Nikita Zaitsev 123 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 132
should) be offered deals just because a rebuilding Thomas Chabot 118 Dylan Demelo 119
team also needs true-blue veterans in place. But, as
Erik Brannstrom 97 Nikita Zaitsev 115
mentioned, who knows with Sens management.
Notwithstanding, the trio would fetch good returns Maxime Lajoie 89 Christian Jaros 92
through trade. DeMelo may find his niche on
Mark Borowiecki 82 Thomas Chabot 83
Ottawa‟s blue line this year and be retained (or, run
for the UFA money), while Boedker, Ennis and Christian Wolanin 77 Ron Hainsey 82
Hainsey would each need a spectacular season to Drake Batherson 69 Bobby Ryan 66
earn an offer from Ottawa … RFA-wise: Chabot,
Tierney, Brown, Duclair, Veronneau, and Jaros will be Christian Jaros 66 Drake Batherson 65
in line for extensions beyond 2019-20.
PIM: Former NHL penalty minutes leader in 2017, Borowiecki, led the club with 89 PIM in only 53 games. While an
encore and the possibility for 100-plus certainly exists, don‟t forget, he‟s totally a stay-at-home type of defender. In fact,
his three goals in 2017-18 can be considered an offensive outburst. On the other side of the spectrum is Tkachuk. Third
in team sin bin minutes behind Borowiecki and Zack Smith (now with Chicago), the 20-year-old in September was all
that was advertised heading into his rookie season last year. Irritating to play against, aggressive, skilled, and leaking
hockey IQ, the youngest of the Tkachuk family will be a points-plus-PIM stud for years to come. Last season‟s 22 goals,
45 points and 75 PIM in 71 outings was just getting his foot in the door. Draft him.
Plus-Minus: Ugh. That‟s to summarize last season, when the entire roster consisted of „minus‟ players, with 16 of them
at minus-10 or lower, bottoming out at Ryan‟s minus-29. To summarize the season ahead: Ugh. With these young kids
and no stud goalie between the pipes, it‟s going to get worse before it gets better.

Dobber Advanced… SENATORS
 Ouch. At a glance you can see
most players in the top left quadrant.
A lopsided number of defensive-zone
faceoffs (versus offensive zone), and
mostly against high quality of
competition (i.e. everyone else is
better than the players the Sens send
out there). Ottawa‟s season in a
nutshell.
 Bright lights: Pageau, White and
Tkachuk were excellent despite the
difficult situations. In fact, Pageau
overcomes some very long odds here
to get that bubble in the blue. An
underrated defensive gem.
 Batherson had a team-low relative
Corsi. He started off well, but then
seemed overwhelmed. He was sent
back down before it could start
impacting his confidence. He may not
yet ready to be an NHL regular (but
the Sens don‟t have a choice – they
need him).
 Lajoie started out hot and was the
darling of the fantasy world back in
October. But in the end, his
possession numbers were among the
worst on the team‟s blue line.
 Chabot is the only defenseman to
see more offensive zone starts than
defensive ones. As it should be. And
as you can see, he is a very strong
possession player.
 Duclair put up pretty good numbers upon arriving in Ottawa (below), but he was heavily sheltered (right) and there
are talented rookies who could use such treatment more than he does. Not a lot of offensive zone starts to spare,
hopefully he won‟t be taking as many from a youngster this year.
 Stone and Duchene were removed from below chart to fit Chabot in. I have been removing some players from these
charts if they are no longer with the team, but at times I leave them in if I think it will help gauge them on their new
teams. The Sens moved so many players out and brought so many in for partial seasons, this one was more difficult to
settle on the 10 players.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
ANTHONY DUCLAIR L 21 61.3 1016 0.924 9.2 47.28 38 67.3 65.8 72.7 2.9
RYAN DZINGEL C 57 54 1013 0.909 10.4 44.76 47.1 66.7 65.2 73.3 2.6
BRADY TKACHUK L 71 47.1 1000 0.905 9.5 49.18 50 67.2 70 58.8 2.4
MIKKEL BOEDKER L 71 50.3 1002 0.892 11 41.31 41.1 61.4 68.3 43.8 2.1
BOBBY RYAN R 78 48.7 983 0.901 8.2 45.1 52.2 66.7 65 69.6 2.1
COLIN WHITE C 71 46.8 989 0.902 8.7 47.67 45.1 66.1 76.7 42.1 2.1
CHRIS TIERNEY C 81 44.4 993 0.903 9 42.73 37.3 66.7 71.7 55.6 2.1
DRAKE BATHERSON C 20 49.6 1027 0.915 11.2 35.06 37.4 69.2 60 100 2
RUDOLFS BALCERS L 21 61.3 1016 0.924 9.2 47.28 38 67.3 65.8 72.7 2.9
THOMAS CHABOT C 57 54 1013 0.909 10.4 44.76 47.1 66.7 65.2 73.3 2.6

Philadelphia FLYERS
Travis Konecny 80 25 53 41 Sean Couturier 76 32 78 36 Claude Giroux 82 22 89 26

J. van Riemsdyk 76 34 60 24 Nolan Patrick 69 14 35 32 Jakub Voracek 81 21 74 42
Michael Raffl 65 8 18 27 Kevin Hayes 74 20 53 16 Oskar Lindblom 81 18 39 22
Carsen Twarynski 15 2 4 10 Scott Laughton 80 11 30 46 Nicolas Aube-Kubel 23 1 4 6
Joel Farabee 9 0 2 2 Mikhail Vorobyov 22 1 5 4 Andy Andreoff 30 2 7 47
Morgan Frost 12 1 5 2 Tyler Pitlick 63 10 19 20

S. Gostisbehere 77 13 55 26 Ivan Provorov 82 9 39 26 Carter Hart 55 32 5
Matt Niskanen 75 6 28 36 Travis Sanheim 79 9 39 23 Brian Elliott 32 14 1
Justin Braun 80 4 23 34 Robert Hagg 80 4 20 52
Philippe Myers 54 3 13 37 Samuel Morin 33 0 5 26
Restricted Free Agents: Konecny, Provorov signed
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Nolan Patrick – Patrick‟s production increased only slightly from his rookie campaign, but that‟s
an accomplishment considering his defensive zone starts increased (relative to his offensive zone starts – see Advanced).
He‟s still coming along fine, if a little slowly. He had 20 points in 38 games (0.53) to finish the season after starting with
11 in 34 (0.32). The acquisition of Hayes pushes Patrick down a notch on this season‟s depth chart, and although that
will slow his progress further in the long run this will actually help. Now Patrick is safely tucked away with no pressure.
He will continue his steady upwards trend as he prepares for that breakout year four or five. He still hasn‟t shown that he
can stay healthy for 75 games, so consider him a 74-game player until you see otherwise.
 Patrick‟s 51.9% faceoff efficiency would actually Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
be tops on a couple of teams but on this one it was Claude Giroux 100 87 Philippe Myers CUT
very low. Both Couturier and Giroux were above
57% and Laughton was at 54.2%. They added Sean Couturier 87 78 Samuel Morin 65%
Hayes, who was 49.2% last year. Jakub Voracek 90 73 Nicolas Aube-Kubel CUT
 Quarter-over-quarter, Sanheim‟s ice time went Joel Farabee 80 58 Mikhail Vorobyov CUT
from 16 minutes per game to 18, 21 and then Travis Konecny 77 57 Joel Farabee CUT
22:09 per contest in the final quarter. His
production went up accordingly (five points, eight, Nolan Patrick 75 57 Morgan Frost INJ
11 and 11). If Gostisbehere gets off to a slow start Shayne Gostisbehere 70 55 German Rubtsov CUT
it is possible that Sanheim elbows his way into the
Kevin Hayes 68 53 Carsen Twarynski 20%
mix and has an early breakthrough.
James van Riemsdyk 68 53
 It is highly unlikely that Hayes gets onto that
first PP unit. Last year he had a career high 11 Morgan Frost 87 53
PPPts before going to the Jets. On that team he Bobby Brink 80 50
was on the second PP unit and had zero PPPts in 20
Ivan Provorov 62 48 Sleeper Pts %
games. Be wary of Hayes, who is coming off a
contract year and is no longer playing a primary Travis Sanheim 58 45 Sean Couturier 87 20%
role. German Rubtsov 67 45 Travis Sanheim 55 20%
 van Riemsdyk returned from injury in November Oskar Lindblom 65 43 Joel Farabee 50 10%
to play with Giroux and Konecny. He didn‟t click
Cameron York 53 38
with them; Giroux was the center. But in the
second half Couturier took over at center, Giroux Mikhail Vorobyov 65 37
was on the other wing, and „JVR‟ took flight. He Tanner Laczynski 72 36
posted 34 points in his last 39 games. This comes
down to Konecny on the wing with Giroux at center Philippe Myers 50 32
or Couturier as the center and JVR on the wing.
Since they now have Hayes, this allows for Giroux to become a winger. That‟s gold for JVR owners.
 Important note: Lindblom averaged 11 minutes per game in the first half and had 11 points in 40 games. In the
second half his TOI was around 16 minutes and he had 22 points in 41 games. He is a player on the rise.
 Farabee getting a long look for that sweet top line job. Watch this situation carefully.

Injury Alert: Patrick, the NHL‟s second-overall pick in 2017, was the lone Flyer that didn‟t finish the season in uniform.
Fortunately, though, he was out only because of a minor upper body injury. He and the rest of the Flyers will be ready for
camp. Previously, veteran goalie Elliott missed quite a stretch of games that spanned three months, from November to
February, because of a lower body issue. Another ailment of significance was sustained by van Riemsdyk, MIA for 16
games early in the season. He returned in mid-November and proceeded to score a solid 27 goals nonetheless…Update:
Patrick is “week to week” with an undisclosed injury. He may miss the first couple of games of the season. UPDATE:
Patrick has a migraine that is probably costing him at least the first several regular season games.
Goaltending: Multiple onlookers were adamant that the Flyers were rushing Hart to the NHL last December, but the 20-
year-old „tender proved us all wrong by winning 16 of his 31 assignments and posting a 2.83 GAA with a .917 save
percentage. Earlier, as a rookie AHLer, Hart had won nine of his 18 Lehigh Valley outings. It‟s safe to say that Hart is
heading into the new season as the go-to guy. He will be spelled by Elliott, who was brought back to the fold a few days
before the July 1 free agency period began. Somewhat of a surprise since Elliott was one of three 2018-19 Flyers goalies,
with Cam Talbot (UFA now with Calgary) and Michal Neuvirth (PTO with Toronto), that failed to do the job in goal, which
resulted in Hart‟s earlier-than-expected promotion … The Flyers signed 28-year-old Jean-Francois Berube as an
unrestricted free agent this past summer for depth. While Berube has only played in 34 games as an NHLer, he‟s now
with his fourth organization after stops in Los Angeles, who drafted him in 2009, New York (Islanders) and Chicago. Alex
Lyon, a former ECAC All-Star that has enjoyed three solid seasons with the Flyers AHL affiliate in Lehigh Valley, saw his
first two games of NHL action last year and is in the mix. And finally, Felix Sandstrom, Philly‟s third-round pick in 2015,
has crossed the pond and should be in Lehigh Valley for 2019-20. He‟s a solid prospect and may one day soon form the
other half of the Flyers‟ goalie tandem alongside Hart. Dobber’s confidence in Hart being the starter: 99%
Breakout Threshold: Hayes (381 GP) is coming off a career year in a contract year. One may assume a drop is in the
works, he is also approaching the 400-game BT for big forwards. His contract assures he‟ll be featured plenty in
Philadelphia. He could surprise … Konecny sits at 233 career games and while he finished the year at 49 points, he was
slightly better in the second half where he had a 52-point pace. This could turn out to be his peak level … Pitlick was
showing good signs as a multi-cat winger in deeper leagues before having a down year mired with injuries. He has 185
games under his belt and a change of scenery could help him get back on track offensively.
Contract Year: The UFA contract situation in 2020 is not an alarming one for general manager Chuck Fletcher. Aside
from veteran Braun, acquired from San Jose to bring some stability to the right side of the blue line, Pitlick, Gabriel and
Elliott are now just role players extending their NHL time … On the RFA front, things are somewhat more tedious, as
Patrick, Lindblom, Hagg, and Myers can be considered team building blocks at varying degrees. After two uneventful
campaigns for the most part, Patrick goes into 2019-20 with lots to prove. Yes, he‟ll be only 21 when the puck drops in
October but that‟s the reality of today‟s modern, money-talks NHL – patience is „not always‟ a virtue.
PIM: After leading the Flyers in penalty minutes for Blocked Shots Hits
the last couple of seasons, Radko Gudas left for
Washington via the unrestricted free agency route. Ivan Provorov 161 Robert Hagg 258
Gabriel and Andreoff were in turn signed off the UFA Robert Hagg 154 Matt Niskanen 143
market but it‟s doubtful if they‟ll manage to earn any
significant time to rack up enough minutes to help Justin Braun 130 Scott Laughton 142
out your numbers. Definitely not the Flyers of old, Travis Sanheim 128 Ivan Provorov 127
eh. Hagg plays a standup game and put up 63 PIM
Matt Niskanen 108 Justin Braun 120
last year, so there‟s a few there if you‟re desperate.
Or else, if you like to project, hulking blueliners Shayne Gostisbehere 103 Tyler Pitlick 113
Myers (6-5) and Morin (6-6) will get their chance at
Sean Couturier 57 Philippe Myers 97
spots this year and have collected okay totals in their
hockey careers before. Oskar Lindblom 52 Samuel Morin 95
Travis Konecny 48 Michael Raffl 92
Plus-Minus: Gostisbehere was minus-20, seven
others were minus-8 or worse. Laughton was minus- Scott Laughton 45 Travis Konecny 87
15 in the second half alone. Giroux (plus-9) and
Couturier (plus-2) were the best. Everyone else was in between. The Flyers now have stable, healthy goaltending (surely
Elliott can stay healthy long enough to be a backup?). But more importantly, their defense received an offseason
upgrade. It says here that the players on this team are safely above the „even‟ threshold. Even Gostisbehere. Laughton
might be a bit of a risk though, as he is still learning the ropes as a defensive forward.

Dobber Advanced… FLYERS
 Couturier no longer could be the next
Patrice Bergeron. He‟s already there. He
gets the points, takes on the tough
minutes, and not only shuts down the
opposition‟s best, but turns defensive
situations into a chance for the Flyers.
Future Selke winner.
 Laughton was used as the defensive
zone forward against the checking lines. It
was his first full season doing this and
while he lost possession posting a negative
relative Corsi, it was a promising first
effort. As he gets stronger and gains
experience, watch him shoulder even
more. This will free up Couturier further,
for more offense.
 Myers and Gostisbehere were given
sheltered minutes but did very well
creating chances with them and could
handle tougher assignments. „Ghost‟ in
particular, with more trust, can be used in
offensive zone starts when the other team
has big lines out to defend. If that
happens, sure he‟ll cough up more scoring
chances, but he‟ll also get more points.
 Patrick is not yet being put in a position
to score and has not yet been trusted
against tougher lines.
 According to 5on5 S% indicators
(below), the „Ghost‟ is in for a rebound season. He missed out on a few assists as his teammates weren‟t putting the
puck in the net at the normal rate when he was on the ice.
 Voracek‟s production isn‟t necessarily down because he needs Giroux on his line. It‟s down because he doesn‟t get the
same minutes. Giroux sees 52.4% of his starts in the offensive zone verus 47.6% defensive (neutral zone ignored in
these stats). Voracek is opposite – 47.6% offensive zone, 52.4% defensive zone. It may not be much, but bottom line it
means plus five or six points one way, minus five or six points the other way when we‟re talking about this level of skill.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
CLAUDE GIROUX R 82 52.4 1010 0.911 9.9 52.05 69.7 69.7 70.1 69.7 2.9
JAKUB VORACEK R 78 47.6 985 0.902 8.3 48.47 64.2 69.5 72.7 62.1 2.7
SEAN COUTURIER C 80 45.5 984 0.892 9.2 52.92 61.4 63.9 66.7 54.8 2.6
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK L 66 52.9 1002 0.916 8.6 46.53 57.5 66.7 70 59.1 2.6
TRAVIS KONECNY C 82 50.3 1010 0.919 9.1 50.28 32.1 72.1 74.5 61.5 2.3
OSKAR LINDBLOM L 81 45.2 978 0.903 7.5 51.02 21.6 68.8 71.4 50 1.8
NOLAN PATRICK C 72 46.4 1008 0.927 8.1 46.76 32 66 72.5 28.6 1.7
SCOTT LAUGHTON L 82 37.1 989 0.902 8.7 44.31 3 66.7 65.2 0 1.6
MICHAEL RAFFL L 67 38.2 999 0.917 8.2 45.92 1.3 58.1 58.6 0 1.4
S. GOSTISBEHERE D 78 54.9 972 0.904 6.8 50.84 68.3 44.6 41.1 51.9 1.4

Pittsburgh PENGUINS
Jake Guentzel 82 38 80 30 Sidney Crosby 79 36 97 42 Jared McCann 75 24 48 36

Dominik Kahun 81 18 48 10 Evgeni Malkin 69 35 74 96 Alex Galchenyuk 73 20 52 32
Zach Aston-Reese 62 15 32 44 Nick Bjugstad 69 15 35 32 Patric Hornqvist 70 17 41 42
Bryan Rust 64 17 29 28 Teddy Blueger 73 13 23 33 Brandon Tanev 79 12 29 38
Joseph Blandisi 14 2 4 8 Dominik Simon 73 12 31 26

Kris Letang 71 15 55 52 Brian Dumoulin 75 4 25 18 Matt Murray 50 29 3
Justin Schultz 68 7 35 22 M. Pettersson 82 4 33 69 Casey DeSmith 6 2 0
Jack Johnson 78 2 13 36 Erik Gudbranson 59 2 8 58 Tristan Jarry 30 14 2
Juuso Riikola 64 4 14 14 Chad Ruhwedel 22 1 3 6
Restricted Free Agents: Pettersson
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Alex Galchenyuk – At 490 games in the NHL, Galchenyuk has exceeded even the most liberal
of prognosticator timelines to reach that breakout. But he has three things going for him: injuries have extended his
development timeline, he‟s only 25, and Malkin. Injuries are a big part of his history yet at the same time he has several
full seasons under his belt – showing that he actually can stay healthy. And in 2015-16 he scored 30 goals, so he‟s
shown us what he can do. The Penguins plan to play him with Malkin. It‟s a perfect fit because he can provide a backup
faceoff option that Phil Kessel never could (though admittedly both Malkin and Galchenyuk are below average at the
faceoff dot each had a 45.7% win rate). Look for Galchenyuk to approach or exceed his career-high points-per-game
average of 0.72. Health will be key – if he can stay healthy, he can reach 60 points. If he does that, then there is
something to build on and still become that future star.
 After the Pens acquired Pettersson, coach Mike Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
Sullivan was tentative with him. He took a few Sidney Crosby 115 97 Juuso Riikola 90%
games to get acclimated. After 11 games without a
point in Pittsburgh, he posted 19 in 46. What‟s Jake Guentzel 87 80 Tristan Jarry 90%
more, he racked up 69 Hits – that‟s something he Evgeni Malkin 102 74 Joseph Blandisi CUT
didn‟t show in Anaheim. The numbers pro-rate to
Alex Galchenyuk 80 62 Pierre-Olivier Joseph CUT
34 points and 123 Hits over a full season. Not bad
for a rookie castoff. Kris Letang 72 55 Kasper Bjorkqvist CUT
 Kahun had 13 points in his first 34 NHL Pierre-Olivier Joseph 60 50 Oula Palve CUT
contests, primarily playing with Jonathan Toews Dominik Kahun 68 48
and Alex DeBrincat. His linemates were mixed and
Jared McCann 67 48
matched after that but he tallied 24 points in 48
games, growing more comfortable against the Dominik Simon 67 43
competition. Nick Bjugstad 65 42
 Bjugstad had potential at one point, and as a Patric Hornqvist 62 42
bigger player he should be given more time to find
Zach Aston-Reese 67 40 Sleeper Pts %
that breakthrough year, but it doesn‟t look good.
Sullivan has shown little interest in using him as a Filip Hallander 67 39 Alex Galchenyuk 65 15%
winger on a scoring line, nor giving him decent PP Kasper Bjorkqvist 62 38 Dominik Simon 50 15%
time. He‟s a third-line center, and only an injury to
Crosby or Malkin can give him that one last chance. Bryan Rust 58 37 Zach Aston-Reese 50 15%
Justin Schultz 55 35 Dominik Kahun 55 15%
 McCann clicked seamlessly on the Crosby-
Guentzel line. And he did it near the end of the Marcus Pettersson 45 32 Jared McCann 57 10%
season, so your fellow poolies may not have caught Teddy Blueger 65 27
it. He had 14 points in the final 20 games. Not
great, so don‟t expect miracles, but enough to be Joseph Blandisi 57 25
fantasy-worthy with some sleeper potential.
 Aston-Reese tallied 37.5% of his ES points playing with Malkin and Kessel in just 32.2% of his shifts. He will be first
up for Malkin‟s line if Kahun or Galchenyuk don‟t work out (or are injured). Similar for Simon and the Crosby line – he
had 28% of his points on 24.4% of his shifts.
 Hornqvist had just 11 points in his last 39 regular season and playoff games after returning from a concussion. His
body is really wearing down and he is a significant risk for fantasy hockey owners.

Injury Alert: Despite consistent stays at the injury ward during the regular season, no Penguins players will be held
from hitting the ice once camp opens because of a reported ailment. Last year, of all Pens‟ ailments, the most serious
was sustained by Schultz, who was out of action for 53 games from mid-October to mid-February because of a fractured
leg. Fortunately, the smooth blueliner came back in tip-top form if we consider that he averaged 20:30 of ice time per
game, his highest mark in the last four years. Depth defender Ruhwedel (upper body) was on the shelf for the season‟s
last 19 contests, as well as the Pens‟ four playoff games, while rookie Aston-Reese missed a total of 26 games (lower
body, broken hand) following his recall from the AHL last November. Of note, blueliner Dumoulin returned for the
postseason‟s Round 1 confrontation versus the Islanders after missing the campaign‟s last three games, but not without
a knee brace because of a partially torn PCL…Rust has a hand injury and is out “longer term”.
Goaltending: After a rough start to the season, 25-year-old Murray righted the ship and provided fantasy leaguers with
roughly the same numbers he put up in his previous two full campaigns: 29 wins, a 2.69 goals-against average and a
.919 save percentage over his first 50-game effort. While the No.1 job remains his, the backup situation has changed
somewhat since the start of 2018-19 due to the emergence of DeSmith, who took to the crease for a total of 36 games.
While the latter seems firmly entrenched in the backup role, that‟s not to say Jarry, 24, isn‟t on the radar anymore. It‟s
just that goalies (should usually) take a bit more time to stake their place in the NHL, especially when one is considered a
potential starter himself. So, that‟s what happened. Projected to be the Pens‟ secondary by many onlookers at the start
of last year, Jarry instead spent most of it – aside from two games up in the big show – with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton of
the AHL, where he enjoyed a solid campaign: 23 wins, a 2.66 GAA and a .915 SV% in 47 games. As for the 28-year-old
DeSmith, he provided the Pens with dependable, backup-type numbers: 15 wins, 2.75 GAA, .916 Sv%. Dobber’s
confidence in Murray being the starter: 100%
Breakout Threshold: With 204 games under his belt, Guentzel crossed the BT in the final month of the season and also
posted a career-high 76 points. However, it should be noted that in the final quarter which coincided with crossing the
200 mark he actually scored at an 86-point pace. Now at his peak, there is room to improve upon last year‟s number …
Tanev (195 GP) had a career year before signing in Pittsburgh. The timing for a breakout could not be better given his
200th career game will take place in October and the talent down the middle in Pittsburgh. Line combinations will be key
… Bjugstad (426 GP) eclipsed the 400-game BT for big forwards last year and was a major flop. He has had an up-and-
down career. He is high-risk to own but there is enough talent in Pittsburgh to facilitate a breakout, with line
combinations once again being a major factor.
Contract Year: Two players that are aiming for bounce-back seasons resulting in big July 1 paydays as unrestricted free
agents in 2020, are summer acquisition Galchenyuk (from Arizona) and veteran rearguard Schultz. For Galchenyuk, a
return to the 20-goal plateau (and more) is of outmost importance if he hopes to hold onto the „potential goal-scorer‟
label that was placed on him entering the NHL. His opportunity to do so has never been better. The skilled but
inconsistent wing will surely see loads of ice time
alongside either Malkin (most likely) and/or Crosby Blocked Shots Hits
(on the power play possibly). Time flies – still just
25, Galchenyuk is now a seven-year NHL veteran. On Jack Johnson 135 Brandon Tanev 275
the other hand, Schultz‟ chances for a new offer from Brian Dumoulin 120 Zach Aston-Reese 203
general manager Jim Rutherford are reasonably good
if he continues his solid play since arriving to the Kris Letang 111 Juuso Riikola 148
Pens in 2016 and, most especially, if he avoids the Marcus Pettersson 104 Erik Gudbranson 140
injury bug, which has dogged him in the past …
Justin Schultz 101 Jack Johnson 139
Rutherford‟s planning will also need to include
extensions for Murray and McCann, RFA by the end of Erik Gudbranson 78 Teddy Blueger 136
2019-20, as well as potential offers (or not) to
Brandon Tanev 76 Patric Hornqvist 130
Kahun, Simon, and Rikula.
Juuso Riikola 72 Jake Guentzel 124
PIM: Ya gotta love the fantasy hockey value that Bryan Rust 56 Brian Dumoulin 118
Malkin provides. The only blemish is that he‟s often
seen at the infirmary for repairs. Had he played a full Jared McCann 54 Kris Letang 114
season in 2018-19, the elite pivot would have surely
recorded his second 100 penalty minutes effort – in just 68 games, he added 21 goals and 72 points to go along with his
team-leading 89 PIM. Aston-Reese is solidly built and may soon add some decent numbers in both points and PIM, while
Gudbranson (87 PIM) is the team‟s newest cop but far from the best candidate to venture deep into the offensive zone.
Rookie defenseman Pettersson‟s 66 sin bin minutes were intriguing.
Plus-Minus: Crosby line: good. Malkin line: bad. Other lines: average. That about sums it up. Malkin and Kessel were
minus-25 and minus-19 last year. I suspect that Kessel was a big part of that, so look for Malkin to be closer to minus-10
or better. Crosby was plus-18 and that shouldn‟t change, pulling his linemates along with him. Dumoulin led the team
with plus-31, which is too extreme. In general, other than the Crosby line and Dumoulin/Letang, look for between minus-
5 and plus-5 for these players.

Dobber Advanced… PENGUINS
 That‟s not a black hole in the upper
right quadrant. That‟s Schultz‟s bubble. He
really struggled upon returning from injury
in February. If a summer off to fully
recuperate can‟t get him back on track, he
needs the Gostisbehere treatment. He was
never a defensive stud to begin with, and
the broken leg sure didn‟t help.
 Kessel and Malkin were given sheltered
minutes and didn‟t dominate possession.
Looking at the numbers, you get the sense
that the fault was Kessel‟s and not
Malkin‟s, lending some further insight as
to why Kessel was traded. It will be
confirmed if we see Malkin‟s bubble turn a
darker blue this season.
 Cullen was removed from the chart
because his bubble was so far to the left
that is scrunched up all the other bubbles.
He was truly the defensive zone guy. After
him, Aston-Reese saw the most defensive
zone starts and handled himself
reasonably well for a first-year player.
 Gudbranson is not as bad as his
reputation leads us to believe. He‟s still
bad, but not „get out of the NHL‟ bad. He
can be a defensive zone guy as long as
the competition isn‟t strong. Last year he
was over his head against scoring lines. As
for Johnson, well, yes, he‟s as bad as his
reputation. He was this bad on the Usage Charts when he was patrolling the blue line with Columbus too, yet GM Jim
Rutherford saw fit to sign him.
 Simon is surprisingly strong in terms of driving possession. He could be a dark horse for a top-six spot and if he
continues this kind of play, he will beat out the others and hang onto the job. Really like what I see here, even though
the offensive zone starts were high. The quality of competition was rather high too, and usually first-year players don‟t
face that as often as he did.
 Bjugstad, and to a lesser extent McCann, Hornqvist and Simon, had low 5on5 S% (below), indicating a small increase
in production just from better puck luck is in store.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
SIDNEY CROSBY C 79 59.4 1035 0.928 10.7 54.6 71.9 71.9 73.4 67.4 3.6
EVGENI MALKIN C 68 63.1 999 0.914 8.5 50 71.8 79.1 90.2 65 3.4
PHIL KESSEL C 82 64.5 1020 0.934 8.6 46.7 71.3 82 82.1 81.8 3.3
JAKE GUENTZEL C 82 58.2 1024 0.925 9.9 53.12 46.8 69.1 74.4 50 2.9
JARED MCCANN C 32 48.7 988 0.914 7.4 49.41 10.6 67.3 68.3 50 2.1
PATRIC HORNQVIST R 69 42 1013 0.936 7.7 50.76 60.1 48.1 61 33.3 2.1
KRIS LETANG D 65 51.5 1021 0.927 9.4 53.83 75.2 47.5 43.2 59.4 2
DOMINIK SIMON C 71 56.2 1005 0.928 7.7 55.62 18 60.9 64.1 42.9 1.8
BRYAN RUST R 72 50 1011 0.925 8.6 50.37 2.8 62.5 60.8 0 1.8
NICK BJUGSTAD C 32 47.8 1011 0.951 6 51.9 27.7 61.9 64.5 54.5 1.7

San Jose SHARKS
Evander Kane 74 32 56 140 Logan Couture 78 28 65 26 Kevin Labanc 81 18 61 38

Timo Meier 79 27 64 52 Tomas Hertl 69 30 63 24 Melker Karlsson 73 11 18 24
Marcus Sorensen 80 16 34 22 Joe Thornton 68 14 44 30 Dylan Gambrell 59 10 26 10
Lukas Radil 57 10 23 10 Barclay Goodrow 82 7 23 68 Jonny Brodzinski 64 8 16 12
Antti Suomela 29 3 7 6

Erik Karlsson 67 10 63 26 Brent Burns 82 19 74 37 Martin Jones 61 33 3
M-Edouard Vlasic 76 4 29 16 Brenden Dillon 81 2 25 67 Aaron Dell 27 12 2
Radim Simek 67 3 17 20 Tim Heed 66 6 26 18
Dalton Prout 36 0 3 16 Mario Ferraro 40 1 7 12
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Kevin Labanc – A long-time „Dobber Darling‟, Labanc has done nothing but improve steadily
each month he‟s been in the league. He‟s a prognosticator‟s dream, with his production level rising steadily even if his ice
time hasn‟t. Last year‟s 56 points averaging just 14 minutes per game gives him 2.9 Pts/60, among the highest in the
entire league (tied for 34th, minimum 70 games played). He had 32 points in his last 37 games. The only thing missing
has been PP time. A very productive PP player (20 PPPts last year on the second unit), he now has the opportunity to
take on the minutes left behind by Joe Pavelski, who left for Dallas. His production will continue to rise quickly and his
upside in the chart below may need to be tweaked higher before he finally settles in. Very bullish on this guy.
 Thornton is not officially a Shark, but we all Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
know he will sign there as soon as the organization Erik Karlsson 88 75 Lukas Radil 90%
gets their roster and cap situation organized. It‟s
enough of a certainty that we can add him to the Tomas Hertl 82 75 Dylan Gambrell 65%
depth chart (we can always adjust if things go Brent Burns 87 70 Jonny Brodzinski 50%
sideways). Update: he is officially a Shark now.
Timo Meier 80 68 Mario Ferraro 40%
 Burns has played all 82 games in each of the Logan Couture 80 67 Antti Suomela CUT
last four seasons. But his shots on goal have
declined. He had 353 four years ago, followed by Kevin Labanc 80 65 Alexander True CUT
320, and then up slightly to 332, and then last Evander Kane 70 57 Sasha Chmelevski CUT
season he had a four-year low at 300. At 34, he
Sasha Chmelevski 82 49 Ivan Chekhovich CUT
may finally be slowing down – peaking last season
with 67 assists and 1.01 points-per-game average. Jonathan Dahlen 70 42
 E. Karlsson is not finished. Sure, injuries could Ivan Chekhovich 80 41

dog him and he may never be the same. Or Dylan Gambrell 70 40
perhaps a summer off has fixed up his ankle/foot
Noah Gregor 72 37 Sleeper Pts %
issues for good. Regardless, the pure talent is still
very much there. You could tell he was feeling close Alexander True 68 37 Tomas Hertl 80 20%
to his normal self in December and January when Ryan Merkley 63 36 Kevin Labanc 70 15%
he got 34 points in 25 games. He also had 16
points in 19 playoff games. If he‟s healthy, this is Maxim Letunov 65 35 Timo Meier 75 10%
what he can still do. If he plays 80 games this year, Lukas Radil 67 35
he‟s leading the Sharks in scoring. Period.
Joachim Blichfeld 70 34
 Too old at 40 for the rigors of a full season? Mario Ferraro 47 32
Thornton played every game from October 30
onward, and he tallied 33 points in his last 39 Antti Suomela 65 30
games.
 Meier started off with 21 points in 21 games before slowing to 45 in 57. At the time, he was given 2:17 of PP time per
game, but had only two PPPts to show for it. His PPTOI was cut to just over a minute. Labanc has been the superior PP
asset by a clear margin.

Injury Alert: E. Karlsson‟s groin issue throughout 2018-19 was an ongoing concern in an otherwise healthy campaign
for the Sharks. Limited to just 53 games during the regular season, he underwent surgery in late May and everything
kept pointing to a successful recovery during his summer rehab. While de did suit up for another 19 contests in the
postseason, it was obvious to any onlooker‟s eyes that the injury bothered him in various ways – less than 100% mobility
and strength being two of them. In total, the superstar blueliner still posted nearly a point-per-game average over the
course of 2018-19: 3-42-45 in 53 GP; 2-14-16 in 19 playoff matchups. In June, Karlsson agreed to an eight-year deal
that will pay $92 million. Elsewhere, depth defender Simek was knocked out of action for the season‟s final 12 games and
the entire postseason because of an injury to his right knee (ACL and MCL). He, too, needed surgery and „could‟ miss the
start of the regular season…Kane has been suspended for first three games. No adjustment, as I had already allotted him
to miss eight games this season.
Goaltending: Playoffs aside, the Sharks finished 21st overall in goals allowed last year, as both Jones and backup Dell
recorded save percentages of under .900. Oft-maligned for letting in weak, deflating goals, six-year NHLer Jones endured
his worst campaign in terms of numbers – on top of .896 SV% in 62 games, his 2.94 goals-against average was almost
half a goal more than his previous highest. Jones has a contract that runs until 2024-25 and will most likely receive the
benefit of the doubt, but rumors were persistent that San Jose wanted to move on from Dell. In 25 regular season
appearances, Dell posted a 3.17 GAA to go with a .886 SV%. Fortunately for the Sharks, he didn‟t see any action in the
postseason. The Sharks align two of the NHL‟s very best athletes on the back end, but neither Karlsson or Burns are
known for defensive stinginess. Vlasic, 32, was once known for the latter but he‟s advancing in age and 2018-19 was far
from his best showing on the blue line – in fact, his minus-6 marked the first time in his 13-year career that he finished
in the red. Justin Braun was okay but dealt to Philadelphia (mostly for some cap relief), while Dillon is not a second-
pairing d-man. So, how much of San Jose‟s sub-par goaltending is related to its defensive group? … If ever a move is
made to bolster the crease, it won‟t come from the system. Not right now, anyway. While serviceable and solid thus far
in his AHL career, Antoine Bibeau looks like a journeyman that may lend a hand for a couple of games but not more.
Otherwise, maybe the Sharks will ultimately reveal a dark horse in the form of either Josef Korenar, or Zachary Emond.
Just 21, Korenar enjoyed a strong rookie season in the AHL (23 wins, 2.54 GAA, .911 SV%), while Emond was lights out
with Rouyn-Noranda of the QMJHL, fashioning 24 wins and ZERO losses record to go a 1.73 GAA and .932 SV%.
Dobber’s confidence in Jones being the starter: 100%
Breakout Threshold: Hertl (405 GP) had a breakout year as he was approaching the 400-game BT for big forwards.
This included an 86-point pace in the second half, suggesting there may another level for Hertl to achieve … Meier took a
big step forward in his third year and ended at 193 career games. He will cross 200 in October so if there is another
breakout to come it should happen this year … Labanc also took a big step forward in year three and crossed 200 career
games during the final quarter. He had a 67-point pace in the second half so there is room for him to improve upon last
season‟s total.
Contract Year: GM Wilson may use the upcoming Blocked Shots Hits
season to measure the potential of rehauling his
support group. A slew of players is headed for Marc-Edouard Vlasic 144 Brenden Dillon 190
unrestricted free agency next summer. M. Karlsson, Brent Burns 115 Evander Kane 147
Dillon and Simek will lead the pack at the Sharks‟
next bargaining table and will be followed by Dell, Brenden Dillon 88 Barclay Goodrow 122
Radl, Heed, Brodzinski, and Prout, who will all need Erik Karlsson 87 Timo Meier 110
above-average years or be required to find work
Tim Heed 67 Radim Simek 109
elsewhere … RFA-wise, Labanc, who signed a one-
year, $1 million extension this past summer, will be Logan Couture 64 Jonny Brodzinski 81
back at it in 2020. We can guarantee that he‟ll be
Barclay Goodrow 62 Marcus Sorensen 79
looking for a much bigger payday, too, as he‟ll also
have arbitration rights on his side this time. Radim Simek 61 Brent Burns 79
Tomas Hertl 60 Melker Karlsson 72
PIM: Kane led the NHL in penalty minutes with 153.
Tack on his second-ever 30 goal performance, plus Melker Karlsson 56 Kevin Labanc 65
his 56 points, and there you have it, a top-notch
power forward that brings strong value to deep fantasy leagues. Next in line is Meier, a 22-year-old power forward in his
own right that has seemingly only scratched the surface in terms of offensive potential. Strong like an ox with silky-soft
hands, Meier also recorded his first 30-goal campaign amidst his 66 points in 78 games. He picked up just 55 PIM some
may say, but they bring value because of other peripherals like hits and (most especially) upside. Goodrow (76 PIM) is an
improving, reliable mucker that will contribute to this ledger and put up about 10 goals in a „good‟ year. And from the
blueline, Dillon, like clockwork, will contribute his 60 sin bin minutes. Going back the last five years, Dillon has recorded
61, 60, 60, 61, and 54 penalty minutes, respectively.
Plus-Minus: Justin Braun (minus-14) was traded to the Flyers in the summer, leaving Couture‟s minus-6 as the lowest
on the team tied with Braun‟s partner Vlasic. The latter was possibly dragged down a little with Braun. The loss of
Pavelski is tough and the team is riddled with question marks when it comes to the depth players. Things could get worse
in this category. Look for a minus-10 to plus-5 range for these players, with Burns, Dillon, Meier, Karlsson and the
sheltered players at the top end, with the rest of the team in the negative.

Dobber Advanced… SHARKS
 Burns and E. Karlsson were allowed
those sweet offensive-zone starts
because Vlasic and Braun shouldered
heavy, heavy defensive duties. Looking
at their possession numbers, it was too
much for Braun and Vlasic to handle,
likely due to lack of forward support.
The Sharks did not have a true
defensive checking line, leaning strictly
on that duo.
 But if this is the strategy going
forward, than Burns and Karlsson will
continue onward and upward. They are
in a position to seriously rack up the
points at even strength, and they will.
 Buried under the impressive
Thornton blue bubble is Sorensen‟s
orange one. Behind Goodrow‟s grey
bubble (lower-middle) is M. Karlsson‟s
orange one. Thornton does indeed look
like he still has a couple of good years
left in him.
 Couture was the center who faced
the opposition‟s toughest lines. With
Pavelski gone, the opportunity is there
for more offensive zone starts though.
That should help Couture‟s possession
numbers.
 Let me draw your attention to the
Pts/60 numbers for Hertl, Meier and
Labanc. The baton has been passed, and this year they should each get the ice time that this has earned. We have
waited a couple of years now for this to happen.
 The 5on5 S% numbers were a little for some players (Hertl, Couture), which may result in a slight decline. Pavelski‟s
was a little low at 7.7%, but if you look at his lopsided-low assist total in the first 20 games it makes sense.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
TOMAS HERTL C 77 49.4 986 0.876 11 53.95 59.3 64.9 74 44.1 3
TIMO MEIER R 78 50.6 994 0.895 9.9 56.27 37.7 74.2 76.1 58.8 3
KEVIN LABANC R 82 57.8 990 0.897 9.4 55.49 48.4 70.9 70.6 71.4 2.9
LOGAN COUTURE C 81 50.2 984 0.882 10.2 53.81 60.2 63.6 68.6 50 2.8
JOE PAVELSKI C 75 52.5 973 0.896 7.7 54.82 63.8 65.3 68.9 58.3 2.7
JOE THORNTON C 73 55.4 996 0.904 9.2 57 41.1 66.2 65.5 68.2 2.7
BRENT BURNS D 82 62.9 991 0.896 9.5 57.05 68.3 58.5 51 71.8 2.4
EVANDER KANE L 75 56.3 979 0.882 9.7 56.12 38.8 62.9 64.2 55 2.4
JOONAS DONSKOI R 80 55.6 996 0.903 9.3 54.55 12.3 63.8 64.2 60 2.1
ERIK KARLSSON D 53 59.2 982 0.891 9.1 59.2 67 47.9 39.1 71.4 2.1

St. Louis BLUES
Jaden Schwartz 70 18 50 20 Ryan O'Reilly 81 25 72 10 Vlad Tarasenko 79 39 70 16

Sammy Blais 56 10 19 52 Brayden Schenn 78 22 62 37 David Perron 69 19 54 50
Zach Sanford 67 10 27 30 Tyler Bozak 77 15 40 22 Robert Thomas 75 14 41 18
Ivan Barbashev 77 13 27 12 Oskar Sundqvist 75 11 35 20 Alexander Steen 71 13 33 20
Robby Fabbri 52 9 20 18 Jordan Kyrou 59 8 21 12
Mackenzie MacEachern 62 8 15 26 Jordan Nolan 20 0 3 16

Alex Pietrangelo 75 15 49 24 Colton Parayko 81 9 30 22 Jordan Binnington 53 31 5
Vince Dunn 78 11 38 42 Justin Faulk 78 14 42 39 Jake Allen 35 15 2
Jay Bouwmeester 65 2 14 28 Carl Gunnarsson 58 6 14 14
Robert Bortuzzo 65 2 13 48 Derrick Pouliot 30 2 9 17
Restricted Free Agents: Barbashev, Edmundson
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Robert Thomas – At first it looked as though Thomas was being kept with the big club because
he was ineligible for the AHL and was too good for junior. He‟s eligible this year, but the point is moot because Thomas
made great strides every quarter, culminating in 13 points in his last 19 games to go with 23 SOG. He did get scratched
for a few games in the Final, but chalk that up to still being wet behind the ears and possibly still struggling with a wrist
injury. Most promising is that he was productive when used on the power play in the second half, and that alone will add
10 points to his numbers this season. A future first-liner who should get there by Year 3 or 4.
 It‟s quite possible that by midseason Thomas Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
will have earned a spot on the top PP, knocking Ryan O'Reilly 82 73 Jordan Kyrou INJ
Schenn down to the second unit. As noted in
Advanced, Schwartz hasn‟t been strong on the PP Vladimir Tarasenko 92 72 Mackenzie MacEachern 65%
and will be knocked down to the second unit. Brayden Schenn 75 62 Mitch Reinke CUT
Bozak played as the fourth forward a lot last year,
Robert Thomas 80 62 Jake Walman CUT
but Dunn has earned the top unit spot. This is why
both Thomas and Dunn are strong sleeper options Jaden Schwartz 73 55
(right). David Perron 70 53
 You can add five points to Parayko if he can get Alex Pietrangelo 65 50
enough time away from being partnered with
Jordan Kyrou 85 50
Bouwmeester, who has been an anchor.
Klim Kostin 70 44
 Tarasenko had 44 points in the last 36 games.
He had 33 goals in his last 64 regular season and Vince Dunn 50 42
playoff contests – a 42-goal pace. Sammy Blais 67 40
 Sundqvist had 21 points in his last 41 games, Scott Perunovich 60 40 Sleeper Pts %
forming a bit of chemistry with the slumping Colton Parayko 52 38 Robert Thomas 55 20%
Schwartz and helping him to get going as well.
Schwartz was off Sundqvist‟s line in the postseason Tyler Bozak 55 38 Vince Dunn 45 20%
though. Oskar Sundqvist 62 38 Sammy Blais 35 15%
 Schwartz had 20 points in 26 playoff games, Justin Faulk 50 35 Jaden Schwartz 60 10%
giving hope to his fantasy owners who suffered Robby Fabbri 70 35 Oskar Sundqvist 45 10%
through a miserable season with him that had
ended with just 15 points in his last 33 games. As Ivan Barbashev 60 35
in the regular season though, his playoff production Zach Sanford 65 35
was not helped by his power-play performance. He
had just two of those 26 playoff points with the man advantage. Without the power play to help him, he is not the
fantasy asset he once was.

Injury Alert: For starters, Tarasenko played with a shoulder injury during most of the Final. Reports stated that the
sniper underwent successful arthroscopic procedure following the Cup win, so that‟s good news heading into camp.
Youngsters Thomas (wrist) and Dunn (upper body) also played through the pain of injury but had the summer to heal,
like their teammates. Naturally, Cup champions are a banged-up group. Fortunately, aside from Tarasenko going under
the knife, the Blues didn‟t require too much medical intervention in the offseason and, again according to reports, are
looking good heading into September. Update: Kyrou had offseason knee surgery and is still recovering. He is skating on
his own but not yet participating in camp drills. This could mean he begins the season in the AHL…Kyrou is still
recovering from offseason knee surgery and will hone his game in the AHL for a few weeks before getting recalled
Goaltending: Sorta like with Jim Carrey‟s character in The Truman Show, it seems, we all witnessed the Cinderella story
Binnington lived from last January on. Twenty-six-year-old at the pro hockey crossroads; recalled (out of desperation)
from minor-league San Antonio of the AHL; Blues in last place; literally nowhere to go but up. And up they did, all the
way to Lord Stanley‟s shiny mug … But, now what? Was Binnington just a one-hit wonder? Not as far as we‟re concerned
– we‟ll place our two cents on him continuing his road now that he‟s finally crossed it. A third-round pick in 2011,
Binnington was oddly slipping through the cracks all this time. How many goalies with a 2.48 goals-against average and a
.915 save percentage in 164 games at the AHL level receive but 13 measly minutes to strut their stuff in the NHL? Get it?
That was Binnington‟s AHL record at the time of his promotion last January 5. Need a refresher as to how he did the rest
of the way? In the 32 assignments he received to finish the regular season, Binnington won 24, allowed just 1.89 goals
per game, and posted a .927 save percentage. And you know the story in the playoffs. It‟s veteran Allen that will play
the support role, while Binnington predictably sits in the starter‟s seat for the Blues‟ next opener. A talented but
inconsistent lad, Allen is still only 28 and could still fetch a good return on the trade market if Binnington persists. In fact,
a potential transaction could come about even more so if-and-when Ville Husso, the prospect goalie that was ahead of St.
Louis‟ latest hero in all team prospect rankings before last January 5, shows he‟s finally ready. Curiously, if not for
Husso‟s sub-par performance with San Antonio in 2018-19, we may have never seen Binnington since the former would
have probably got the call instead. Dobber’s confidence in Binnington being the starter: 100%
Breakout Threshold: Barbashev (163 GP) has been showing steady improvement and even improved last year as the
season progressed before finishing with a 33-point pace in the final quarter. He will not reach 200 career games until
January, so there will likely be another year before we see Barbashev at his peak. However, keep an eye on him in the
second half as his is scheduled to heat up … Parayko (322 GP) should hit the 400-game BT for defensemen at the end of
this season. He has been a fantasy tease with multiple campaigns around 35 points but has not yet taken the big step
forward. If you can wait another year, next year might be his time. He is a good buy-low option because there‟s always
the possibility he breaks out early.
Contract Year: Blues general manager Doug Armstrong has his work cut out for him. On tap for unrestricted free agent
status next summer are core players Pietrangelo,
Schenn and Parayko. Needless to say, all three are Blocked Shots Hits
due for some pretty big paychecks in 2020, which will
also limit Blues‟ spending in the overall free agent Alex Pietrangelo 151 Sammy Blais 146
market for yet another year … As for them, Dunn, Colton Parayko 149 Colton Parayko 124
Fabbri, MacEachern, and Pouliot will require
extensions of the RFA kind. Joel Edmundson 111 Joel Edmundson 122
Jay Bouwmeester 99 Brayden Schenn 120
PIM: We found it! The only hockey thing O‟Reilly is
Robert Bortuzzo 89 Oskar Sundqvist 113
not good at is collect penalty minutes. In 10 years at
the NHL level, O‟Reilly has never garnered more than Derrick Pouliot 84 Robert Bortuzzo 112
18 PIM, and that was during his rookie season in
Vince Dunn 82 Mackenzie MacEachern 105
2009-10. In fact, he‟s regressed ever since – last
year‟s total of 12 is further proof of his decline. A Carl Gunnarsson 81 Ivan Barbashev 90
gritty lot, the 2019-20 Blues you‟d be looking for in Alexander Steen 58 Vladimir Tarasenko 90
terms of sin bin minutes are defenders Edmundson
(68 PIM in 64 last year) and Bortuzzo (47 in 59 GP). Ryan O'Reilly 45 Derrick Pouliot 71
Unfortunately, they won‟t give you any offense for
the love of God. Your best bet for a points-plus-PIM combo is veteran winger Perron (46 points and 46 PIM in only 57
GP). The in-your-face Blais is an exciting prospect and may one day develop into a contributor in this category. UFA
signees Jake Dotchin (D) and Evan Polei (LW) can rack them up but they‟ll have to show they can handle a regular shift
in the NHL first, or forever hold their peace in the minors. Veteran Nolan doesn‟t despise the rough‟n tumble but he‟s now
on the fringe as an NHLer.
Plus-Minus: Players on last year‟s roster ranged from minus-6 (Schwartz) to plus-22 (Selke winner O‟Reilly). Looking at
strictly the second half, when the Blues got rolling, Schwartz was still minus-6, but all of the other regulars in the lineup
were plus players, with Tarasenko leading the way at plus-23. That‟s in the second half alone. With stable goaltending,
the Blues‟ players will be very powerful in this stat category, ranging from plus-5 to as high as plus-30 from some of the
top players.

Dobber Advanced… BLUES
 Forwards were implemented well –
Selke winner O‟Reilly was a stud facing
tough competition, Tarasenko, Schwartz
and Schenn saw offensive zone starts
regardless of opposition and did well.
Steen also drove possession despite
handling more defensive starts. Fabbri
was in over his head (as was Kyrou, in
limited action). Those two need to be
sheltered the way Thomas and Maroon
were.
 On defense, Dunn was given the
Gostisbehere treatment – lighter
competition and mostly offensive zone
starts. Bouwmeester is that ugly orange
in that upper left quadrant. He was
clearly responsible for dragging partner
Parayko into the orange a bit. It‟s
obviously a big reason why Parayko‟s
offensive stats have not progressed yet.
 Schmaltz was sheltered…and was
brutal, despite that.
 Barbashev and Sundqvist were given
mostly defensive zone starts (not always
together) and this freed up the offensive
players. Steen was also a part of it, but
he also saw more time in the offensive
zone, dragging his overall bubble further
to the right than the other two.
 The biggest reason for Schwartz‟s
production decline was his PP production. His PP IPP (below) was just 35.7%, meaning he didn‟t touch the puck or wasn‟t
a part of most of the power-play goals scored while he was on the ice.
 On the plus side, Schwartz‟s 5on5 S% was low at 7.1%, indicating a rebound is in the cards. Barbashev was also low,
but with that defensive zone assignment a „rebound‟ wouldn‟t mean more than a couple of points.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
VLAD TARASENKO R 76 56.9 992 0.912 8 53.12 60.5 73.1 73 73.3 2.9
DAVID PERRON L 57 47.3 1020 0.928 9.2 49.96 47.8 79.3 82.1 73.7 2.8
RYAN O'REILLY C 82 49.2 1027 0.934 9.3 53.44 59.4 70 70.3 66.7 2.7
BRAYDEN SCHENN C 72 53 1000 0.916 8.4 53.12 50.3 65.9 68.9 57.1 2.4
ROBERT THOMAS C 70 56.7 1002 0.924 7.8 50.96 26.1 70.2 74.3 58.3 2.2
TYLER BOZAK C 72 49.8 998 0.916 8.2 50.26 48.1 65.5 76.9 42.1 1.9
OSKAR SUNDQVIST C 74 40.2 1009 0.923 8.6 50.47 8.4 79.5 82.4 33.3 1.8
IVAN BARBASHEV C 80 37.6 986 0.915 7.1 48.86 1 86.7 85.7 0 1.7
JADEN SCHWARTZ C 69 58 991 0.918 7.3 54.71 46.1 63.2 72.1 35.7 1.7
ZACH SANFORD L 60 46.9 1015 0.934 8.1 50.71 3.7 64.5 63.3 100 1.6

Tampa Bay LIGHTNING
Yanni Gourde 81 25 62 60 Steven Stamkos 78 37 89 49 Nikita Kucherov 80 41 119 56

Ondrej Palat 66 12 39 26 Brayden Point 69 29 77 24 Tyler Johnson 76 23 47 26
Alex Killorn 82 17 43 50 Anthony Cirelli 82 18 42 30 Mathieu Joseph 76 13 33 30
Patrick Maroon 76 15 32 74 Cedric Paquette 65 7 15 63 Gemel Smith 55 5 14 22
Danick Martel 13 2 4 8 Alex Barre-Boulet 24 3 7 4 Taylor Raddysh 17 2 5 2

Victor Hedman 75 16 61 47 Ryan McDonagh 77 8 37 35 Andrei Vasilevskiy 56 41 5
Mikhail Sergachev 76 8 40 34 Erik Cernak 69 6 21 62 Curtis McElhinney 26 16 1
Braydon Coburn 73 2 19 34 Kevin Shattenkirk 65 6 29 32
Luke Schenn 36 0 3 16 Jan Rutta 63 5 19 16 Louis Domingue 9 4 0
Cal Foote 25 1 5 10 ^waived, cleared

Restricted Free Agents: Point, Erne (traded to DET and signed)
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Mikhail Sergachev – The 21-year-old has the talent and potential of a No.1 defenseman and he
is moving towards that quickly. Not quickly enough for some poolies. Buried behind an elite defenseman in Hedman and
top-pairing guy McDonagh, Sergachev was at times a healthy scratch (five times, to be exact) which has his fantasy
owners worried. He is still learning the defensive side of the game, but is being coached accordingly. But you know that
the scratches were simply “lessons” and that the team does in fact need and value him – he averaged nearly 19 minutes
per game in the playoffs. Of his 32 points last year, 20 of them came in the last 38 games (12 in 37 before that).
Sergachev will produce steadily improving numbers over the next couple of seasons and by the time he‟s 24 he will be a
top-pairing guy.
 Gourde started last season with 20 points in 20 Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
games playing on a line with Point. Then Point was Nikita Kucherov 135 118 Gemel Smith 60%
taken off the line and Gourde‟s production tanked.
At the end of the season Gourde and Point were Steven Stamkos 98 88 Cal Foote CUT
reunited and Gourde finished with 11 points in 11 Brayden Point 100 87 Alex Barre-Boulet CUT
games. A lot depends on who he plays with, as his
Victor Hedman 75 60 Taylor Raddysh CUT
numbers could range from 45 to 80 points. That
wide range is bigger than with most players. Alex Barre-Boulet 85 55 Mitchell Stephens 15%
 When Hedman was sidelined in early November Yanni Gourde 75 53 Alex Volkov 20%
for seven games, McDonagh stepped up and tallied Boris Katchouk 70 52
eight points, two of them on the power play. When
Tyler Johnson 72 50
Hedman was out again in early April, McDonagh
had three points in four games. That‟s 11 in 11 in Mikhail Sergachev 60 47
games without Hedman, but 35 in 71 with Hedman Taylor Raddysh 77 47
there. A healthy Hedman would mean dropping
expectations for McDonagh. Anthony Cirelli 72 45
Mathieu Joseph 67 45 Sleeper Pts %
 Cirelli had 15 points in his last 20 games. That‟s
with no noticeable bump in ice time, PP time, or Nolan Foote 68 45 Yanni Gourde 67 20%
quality of linemates. He was also one of just seven Ondrej Palat 68 42 Mikhail Sergachev 47 20%
Lightning players to get at least two playoff points
(when they got swept). So far he seems to be Alex Killorn 65 42 Taylor Raddysh 40 10%
pretty clutch. He also had five GWG. Mitchell Stephens 67 41 Mathieu Joseph 43 10%
 After six goals and 17 points in 20 games to Ryan McDonagh 52 40
start the year, Stamkos surged. He posted 81 Alexander Volkov 70 40
points in 62 games after that, including 33 of his 40
PPPts. Stamkos is usually in the low-30s for PPPts Cal Foote 45 34
and this added bump is courtesy of Kucherov‟s
emergence into superstardom.
 Johnson had 34 points in 45 games. In Game 46 he left early with a lower-body injury. Well known as a player who
plays hurt (to the detriment of his fantasy owners), Johnson only missed one game and then the All-Star Break. After
that he had just 13 points in 33 games. Once again, an injury derails him when he starts putting something together.

Injury Alert: Yes, the Lightning couldn‟t finish the job with a Stanley Cup, but one of the best regular-season teams in
the history of the NHL is going into its „revenge‟ year with a clean bill of health. Aside from star d-man Hedman, who was
unable to take part in the last two games of the Bolts‟ disappointing first-round exit at the hands of Columbus because of
an upper body injury, nothing deemed serious was reported from the injury ward during the offseason. In fact, the
Lightning was relatively healthy „during‟ the entirety of the 2018-19 campaign, which certainly helped in posting truly
stellar team numbers across the entire board. As far as returnees are concerned, Palat endured the longest stint (16
games) on the IR because of a lower body injury, but that was early in the first half. As was Vasilevskiy‟s 14-game game
stay on the sidelines because of a foot injury. UPDATE: Apparently Point had double hip surgery in the spring and will
miss much of October as he still recovers. At least he finally signed a contract.
Goaltending: Winner of the Vezina Trophy, Vasilevskiy, 25, recorded career year numbers that would have been even
better if he wasn‟t knocked out of 14 games because of injury in the first half. Most particularly, let‟s point out his 2.40
goals-against average and .925 save percentage. His 39 wins (in just 53 games) were five short of the 44 he put up the
year prior but only because he played in 12 fewer games. For his efforts, the Lightning awarded the big Russian goalie a
whopping eight-year, $76 million extension this past July. An all-around, deep group of young and older blueliners will
spell Vasilevskiy and his backup. In fact, it‟s one of the league‟s best ensemble despite the lack of fanfare … So, about
that backup. Trade rumors regarding last year‟s backup, Domingue, were persistent in the summer, so backing Vas up
this season will most likely be unrestricted free agent signee, McElhinney, who should stave off the former, as well as
four other summer acquisitions at the goaltending position: Marek Mazanec, Scott Wedgewood, Spencer Martin, and Mike
Condon. In 2018-19, the 36-year-old McElhinney also enjoyed his best year to date in the NHL: 20-11-2, 2.58 GAA, .912
SV% with Carolina. As for Domingue, his basic numbers read as such: 21-5-0, 2.88 GAA, .908 SV%. Update: Domingue
cleared waivers and will be in the AHL this year barring a trade. Dobber’s confidence in Vasilevskiy being the
starter: 100%
Breakout Threshold: There is nobody in the coming season who fits in with the criteria here but keep an eye on Cirelli,
who sits at 100 career games and will not cross his 200-game BT until sometime next year. He is already fairly
productive despite not being used as a top-six forward. If you can wait a year there might be another gear for Cirelli,
especially if the team‟s annual salary cap gymnastics push him up the lineup.
Contract Year: The bulk of general manger Julien Brisebois‟ work at the bargaining table this upcoming year will center
around restricted free agents Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak, three emerging young stars in each of their own right.
Cirelli, a determined, two-way center; Sergachev, a high-skill, offensive d-man; and Cernak, an unyielding, defensive-
first type. While extending an RFA is usually not as difficult a dossier that an incoming or outgoing unrestricted free agent
case may bring, the proper handling of the matter is of outmost importance when it concerns future building blocks … On
the UFA side of things, Brisebois will turn his attention (or not) toward Domingue, if he‟s not dealt by then, Rutta,
Schenn, and Condon. Thanks to sound, dependable
play, Ruttu has an outside chance of renewing with Blocked Shots Hits
the Bolts as a depth defenseman.
Ryan McDonagh 151 Erik Cernak 235
PIM: Team penalty-minute leader Paquette scored a Victor Hedman 113 Cedric Paquette 182
career-high 13 goals to go along with his 80 sin bin
minutes but that‟s pretty much his offensive ceiling, Mikhail Sergachev 103 Luke Schenn 167
eh, so let‟s just applaud him and not expect another Erik Cernak 94
hike this upcoming season. With 48 points and 66
Luke Schenn 69 Mathieu Joseph 140
PIM, Gourde is developing into a fine contributor for
deeper leagues, especially since he possesses the Braydon Coburn 69 Ondrej Palat 110
potential to up both stats if he‟d just play more than
Jan Rutta 62 Mikhail Sergachev 108
his usual 15-16 minutes per game. And how about
Kucherov‟s combo of 128 points and surprising 62 Anthony Cirelli 54 Anthony Cirelli 103
PIM – nice, eh? On the back end, Cernak will never Cedric Paquette 47 Braydon Coburn 91
produce offensive numbers to help your points-only
format, but he does play with a firm and stern Cal Foote 47 Alex Killorn 90
disposition that produced 58 PIM in as many outings
as a rookie. Depth-wise, the Bolts‟ summer UFA shopping spree also included Schenn and Luke Witkowski, both known to
brawl and amass some minutes if given the chance.
Plus-Minus: The record-breaking Lightning team had every regular on the roster at plus-4 or above. McDonagh topped
the list at plus-38 (!) with six others at plus-22 or above. There will be more ridiculousness like this in the year ahead, as
this team has held much of the roster together.

Dobber Advanced… LIGHTNING
 It‟s amazing to see Palat lead this
team in offensive zone starts, when
at least four players have higher
offensive upside. He had 26 ES points
in 64 games last year. How terrible
would his numbers be without this
kind of usage? A little scary to own in
fantasy.
 Cernak has shown that he can
handle defensive responsibilities
better than a declining Stralman, and
he will replace him seamlessly. That
means you probably shouldn‟t expect
big points from Cernak in the near
future.
 Cirelli is proving to be a very
talented defensive forward, which will
stifle his offensive upside. As he
gradually sees tougher competition
as he gains experience, Point will get
freed up for easier minutes.
 Miller getting more defensive zone
starts than offensive ones says it all.
It was the second lowest zone start
of his career. His Pts/60 (below) was
the highest of his career at 2.6 and
fourth on the team. I was very bullish
on him last year and this backs that
up. All he needed was minutes and
optimal usage and the production is
there for the taking. Will he get that
in Vancouver? Yes, but without this kind of supporting cast it won‟t help as much as it could.
 I had always considered Joseph a better defensive, two-way potential guy than Cirelli. But the Usage chart says
different. Cirelli is clearly being leaned on defensively and doing well, whereas Joseph is actually getting, if anything,
more offensive zone starts. I‟ll be tweaking Joseph‟s upside a little higher as a result.
 Nobody had a low 5on5 S% and several players were a little high. Kucherov and Stamkos can be higher because they
are elite players. Is Point elite? He is when we‟re talking two-way and intangibles, but is he truly elite strictly in terms of
offense? If not, then his production will decline (my money is on this). Johnson and Joseph were also high in good puck
luck, but Joseph getting more ice time would make any decline a wash.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
NIKITA KUCHEROV R 82 56.4 1026 0.916 11 52.91 75 82.6 84.2 80 4.7
STEVEN STAMKOS C 82 54.9 1009 0.909 10 52.06 73 74.8 82.4 65.6 3.9
BRAYDEN POINT C 79 52.4 1036 0.929 10.7 52.06 67.4 65.7 71.3 58.3 3.7
J.T. MILLER C 75 48.3 1008 0.919 8.9 53.81 50.9 55.3 57.4 52.6 2.6
YANNI GOURDE C 80 50.6 1010 0.911 9.9 51.89 28.9 62.3 66.1 47.4 2.3
TYLER JOHNSON C 80 53.9 1023 0.921 10.2 50.72 32.1 52.2 54.3 42.1 2.2
ONDREJ PALAT L 64 59 1015 0.924 9 51.08 42 54 65 34.8 2.1
ALEX KILLORN C 82 46.1 1028 0.936 9.2 54.83 27.6 58 64.7 38.5 2
VICTOR HEDMAN D 70 51.9 1020 0.924 9.6 52.39 67 42.9 37.3 55.6 2
MATHIEU JOSEPH R 70 50.1 1021 0.918 10.3 52.09 4.3 65 64.9 0 2

Toronto MAPLE LEAFS
Zach Hyman 67 15 39 48 John Tavares 81 44 90 34 Mitchell Marner 82 25 93 24

Andreas Johnsson 77 21 53 30 Auston Matthews 72 39 81 14 William Nylander 80 21 63 24
Alexander Kerfoot 79 16 45 34 Nick Shore 68 6 21 22 Kasperi Kapanen 78 20 44 28
Ilya Mikheyev 70 16 34 10 Frederik Gauthier 67 3 15 16 Dmytro Timashov 65 6 14 39
Trevor Moore 58 6 19 10 Jason Spezza 64 7 19 21 Kenny Agostino 15 3 6 8
Nic Petan 10 0 3 0 Pontus Aberg 14 2 6 2

Morgan Rielly 80 17 68 16 Cody Ceci 78 5 29 22 Frederik Andersen 62 37 3
Jake Muzzin 79 10 41 43 Tyson Barrie 76 14 61 32 Michael Hutchinson 18 8 1
Martin Marincin 54 1 13 14 Rasmus Sandin 65 3 19 12 Kasimir Kaskisuo 8 4 0
Timothy Liljegren 12 0 2 2 Justin Holl 47 2 12 12
Travis Dermott 59 4 22 32 Ben Harpur 13 0 2 15 Kevin Gravel 0 0 0 0
Restricted Free Agents: Marner signed
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Andreas Johnsson – The 24-year-old was stuck on the fourth line and getting scratched a lot to
begin the last campaign. It wasn‟t until some line-juggling caused by Matthews‟ November injury (plus Nylander had not
yet joined the club) that allowed for that fateful November 24 game in which Johnsson scored a hat trick. It caught the
attention of coach Mike Babcock, who started playing him more and in better roles. Johnsson had 40 points in 55 games
to end the season, which is a 60-point pace. Don‟t underrate Johnsson, who is a future star. He starred in the SHL, was
one of the better rookies in the AHL, and then as a sophomore there followed up 54 points in 54 games with a stellar
MVP performance (24 points in 16 games) leading the Marlies to the title in 2018. He has done nothing to indicate he will
be anything but a star at the top level, and playing with Matthews should get him there awfully quick.
 Spezza has been strong at the faceoff dot for Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
over a decade. His other skills have eroded, but Mitchell Marner 107 93 Ilya Mikheyev 95%
not that one. And Shore has had improving
numbers each year in the NHL before spending John Tavares 102 90 Nic Petan CUT
last year in the KHL, though his faceoff numbers Auston Matthews 115 87 Kalle Kossila INJ
were merely average. The point is, both players
Morgan Rielly 82 68 Jordan Schmaltz CUT
deserve to center. Kerfoot was strong at the dot
last year, winning 56%, but he was only a part- William Nylander 85 65 Rasmus Sandin 60%
time center and was 42.1% in 2017-18. It‟s Tyson Barrie 70 60 Jeremy Bracco CUT
possible he gets moved to wing so both Spezza
and Shore get in the lineup. Gauthier could be the Andreas Johnsson 75 58 Justin Holl 15%
odd man out. Kasperi Kapanen 67 48 Mason Marchment INJ
 A lot of the sleepers here will need a lot of help Jeremy Bracco 80 48 Dmytro Timashov 40%
from injuries on the wing. Aberg can provide Nicholas Robertson 73 48 Yegor Korshkov CUT
spurts of value in the top nine with 13 minutes per
game and secondary PP time, but with a full Alexander Kerfoot 70 47
healthy roster he will never get that (making him Timothy Liljegren 63 47 Sleeper Pts %
no better than Tyler Ennis last year). He‟s 100%
Zach Hyman 55 43 William Nylander 70 20%
useless getting eight minutes on the fourth line.
He signed with the wrong team. Mikheyev is in the Travis Dermott 52 42 Andreas Johnsson 63 20%
same boat, but at least the team actively pursued Rasmus Sandin 58 42 Ilya Mikheyev 43 10%
him and to compete to sign him, giving him a bit
of an edge. Agostino got into a lot of NHL games Jake Muzzin 50 41 Pontus Aberg 45 10%
and has impressive metrics – but he‟s behind the Ilya Mikheyev 67 40 William Nylander 70 20%
eight ball in trying to beat out players who mean Cody Ceci 42 32
more to the organization. If only one of those
three players were signed it would be of fantasy Pontus Aberg 55 30
interest, but all three? The odds are just too great.
 Hit the hardest by Nylander‟s return to the lineup on December 6 was Kapanen. He had 19 points in 28 games (0.68)
at that juncture, and then just 25 in 50 (0.50).
 Matthews began the season with seven consecutive multi-point games. He even had debates going online about if he
was as good as McDavid! In the first 22 games he had 33 points (123-point pace).

 Marner played over 88% of his ES shifts with Tavares. He had 90% (62) of his 69 ES points with Tavares. Meaning
that his production rate stayed about the same even those rare times Tavares was not on his line.
Injury Alert: Still on the mend when camp opens will most likely be Dermott and possibly Hyman. While the former was
expected to require about six months to recover from shoulder surgery that he underwent last May, Hyman, who played
with a torn ACL during the first round of the postseason against Boston, wasn‟t committal about a date for his return
following MRI procedure at the conclusion of 2018-19. All in all, the Leafs can thank their lucky stars for generally
avoiding the infirmary in 2018-19. Outside of Matthews, who was sidelined for 14 matchups early in the first half, no
other returnee has reported ill effects from ailments sustained last year. As far as incoming acquisitions are concerned,
and cripes there‟s a whole slew of them, the main end-of-season concern in 2018-19 centered around Harpur, acquired
from Ottawa in the Ceci/Nikita Zaitsev transaction. The big, 6-6, 222-pound defender couldn‟t finish the schedule
because of concussion-like symptoms buts seems ready for camp.
Goaltending: Hard to complain when your team has one of the league‟s top goalies and he‟s a workhorse to boot.
Unfortunately, whether it‟s Toronto or Montreal, another hockey hotbed often known for the infraction, complaining is
part of the game, eh. Notwithstanding the latter, Andersen at 29 is at the top of his game and headed for his fourth
straight 60-plus game performance in 2019-20. In fact, the 6-4 „keeper will need to play big, especially since the Leafs
are introducing a few new members to their defensive blue line this fall: most notably, Barrie, Ceci and Harpur, who
should form half of the club‟s regular group. In 2018-19, Andersen fashioned a 36-16-7 wins-losses ledger to accompany
a 2.77 goals-against average and a .917 save percentage. But still, the doubters are numerous and Andersen will silence
them only when he‟ll have at least led Toronto through a solid run in the postseason, something which he has failed to do
in three campaigns as a Leaf … Back to 2019-20, who will play backup to Andersen? Good question. The inside track
among rostered goalies probably belongs to veteran Hutchinson, 29, who‟s played 111 games over six seasons in the
NHL, but he‟ll have to beat out Neuvirth, who was offered a camp tryout by the Leafs. A capable backup during his
career, the 31-year-old Neuvirth was last seen in a Philadelphia Flyers sweater and counts 257 career games in the NHL
… Kasimir Kaskisuo provides organizational depth on the farm with the AHL‟s Toronto Marlies, while Boston College (HE)
standout, Joseph Woll, who signed a three-year ELC las March, and Prince Albet (WHL) grad, Ian Scott, show future
promise. Dobber’s confidence in Andersen being the starter: 100%
Breakout Threshold: Nylander (239 GP) was supposed to have his breakout last year. Instead, a lengthy holdout and
struggles to get going made it a write-off. If he has it in him to break out and become an offensive star, this is the time
we will see it … Ceci (440 GP) crossed the 400-game BT for defensemen at the mid-point of last year. He stepped up in
the second half contributing at a 35-point pace with just one point on the power play. He does not need the man
advantage to contribute and the Leafs‟ offense will help him pick up points.
Contract Year: By all accounts, general manager Kyle Dubas seems to relish juggling his budget and personnel. Budget-
wise, the predicted signing of current restricted free
agent Marner will make the Leafs the first team in Blocked Shots Hits
NHL history to dress three players at an annual
Cody Ceci 165 Jake Muzzin 168
salary of $10 million or more, hence the juggling act
to fit the rest of the roster under the cap‟s ceiling, Jake Muzzin 127 Cody Ceci 126
while personnel-wise, no less than 33 player
Morgan Rielly 108 Zach Hyman 108
contracts (17 in, 16 out) were jettisoned during the
past offseason alone. Wowza! That said, let‟s look at Ben Harpur 85 Ben Harpur 108
what is upcoming on the restricted free agent front Tyson Barrie 81 Kenny Agostino 105
next summer if the roster manages to stay as is. Up
for new contracts before hitting unrestricted free Travis Dermott 72 Kasperi Kapanen 98
agency next summer will be half of the 2019-20 blue Auston Matthews 61 Travis Dermott 95
line corps – Barrie, Ceci, Muzzin – and three vets
already in tight for October roster spots: Spezza, Martin Marincin 55 Frederik Gauthier 90
Marincin, Hutchinson … On the restricted front, Kevin Gravel 54 Andreas Johnsson 61
Dermott, Aberg, Harpur, Gauthier, and Schmaltz will
be looking for extensions in Toronto. It goes without John Tavares 47 Nick Shore 57
saying, but we‟ll say it anyway, the year ahead will
be determining for the Leafs. Something‟s gotta give (at some point).
PIM: There‟s the argument to be made that it can‟t be all skill. If there‟s one area with the on-ice product that the Leafs
don‟t pass with flying colors, it‟s in the physicality aspect of the game. As the league‟s least penalized team, Toronto
rosters a group of forwards that can be considered soft, and even more so now following the trade of gritty Nazem Kadri
to Colorado. To a certain extent, offseason acquisition Harpur will help the blue line brigade in that department, but it
won‟t be enough to balance out the lack of it up front. So, all that to say you shouldn‟t be looking Toronto‟s way if you‟re
hoping to bolster your multicategory franchise in the sin bin.
Plus-Minus: Matthews was dead last on the team with minus-9. Next on the current roster was Dermott at minus-5. Ten
(10) players were at plus-11 or higher, mainly the Marner line and the key defensemen. Matthews was a minus-11 over
his last 19 games, bringing him well into the red there and skewing what would have been an acceptable category for
him. Draft Leafs players as if their plus-minus will help and not hinder – think plus-5 to plus-20 for all players except
perhaps Dermott, who may be lower, and the fringe players who go in and out of the roster.
Dobber Advanced… MAPLE LEAFS
 I had to remove Gauthier because he
was so far on the left that it squished
the other bubbles together on the right.
It‟s almost as if he had zero offensive
zone starts – only in his own zone. He
also saw the weakest quality of
competition. All the same, it was his
first full NHL season and it‟s no wonder
his relative CF% was so low…Seeing
Ennis, whose bread and butter was
always offense and not defense, getting
just 35% offensive zone starts.
 All the key forwards did well in
driving possession except for Marleau,
which we already knew was having a
rough go of it, and Brown. Both players
were traded by the fancy stats GM Kyle
Dubas.
 Dubas also let Ennis, Zaitsev and
Hainsey go – so every bubble that was
brown or dark orange except Moore
(and Gauthier). Curious to see if that‟s
going to happen every summer under
Dubas.
 Zaitsev and Muzzin shouldered much
of the defensive load on defense. With
Zaitsev gone, it could be Ceci who takes
his place.
 Bottom line is that the Leafs as a
team did well in driving possession and
forcing a lot more faceoffs in the opposition zone as opposed to their own zone. You can see this by the number of
bubbles in the right half.
 Both Kadri and Nylander had low 5on5 S% stats and you can expect both players to be more productive in the year
ahead. The Marner line was high, but as stars that can be expected. What isn‟t expected is Johnsson‟s 10.5%. He is
probably in for a slight decline in his Pts/60 number. Getting more minutes (i.e. ice time) would mitigate that.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
MITCHELL MARNER C 82 51.7 1039 0.924 11.5 51.8 59.6 74 76.7 61.8 3.5
AUSTON MATTHEWS C 68 57.6 991 0.9 9.1 52.82 59.9 79.3 81.5 74.1 3.5
JOHN TAVARES C 82 51.4 1036 0.923 11.3 53.27 59.7 68.2 72.6 55.9 3.4
ANDREAS JOHNSSON L 73 50 1034 0.929 10.5 53.75 35.8 71.7 74 60 2.6
MORGAN RIELLY D 82 54.8 1040 0.927 11.3 51.37 60 50.3 45.9 63.6 2.3
NAZEM KADRI C 73 51.6 1011 0.938 7.3 53.18 58.7 61.1 70.5 46.4 2.2
TYLER ENNIS C 51 35 1000 0.917 8.3 46.73 37 85.7 92.9 71.4 2.1
KASPERI KAPANEN R 78 55.1 1015 0.92 9.5 52.97 18.1 62 62.9 50 2
ZACH HYMAN C 71 52.9 1019 0.916 10.3 52.61 5.8 59.4 59.1 0 2
WILLIAM NYLANDER C 54 58 1001 0.926 7.5 56.02 41.6 62.8 63.6 60 1.9

Vancouver CANUCKS
Micheal Ferland 75 17 50 68 Elias Pettersson 73 30 72 16 Brock Boeser 71 28 63 24

J.T. Miller 80 19 61 36 Bo Horvat 76 22 58 19 Jake Virtanen 73 17 35 45
Tanner Pearson 81 20 41 27 Brandon Sutter 58 9 19 12 Josh Leivo 75 15 31 36
Tyler Motte 75 10 18 16 Jay Beagle 72 6 17 22 Loui Eriksson 65 10 24 18
Antoine Roussel 69 13 28 109 Adam Gaudette 71 12 29 28 Tim Schaller 36 2 9 10
Sven Baertschi 40 12 20 12 Nikolay Goldobin 54 7 26 14

Tyler Myers 79 9 41 53 Alexander Edler 65 9 37 48 Jacob Markstrom 56 28 2
Quinn Hughes 78 4 40 16 Christopher Tanev 56 2 15 18 Thatcher Demko 32 13 1
Troy Stecher 72 2 21 30 Jordie Benn 76 4 19 34
Oscar Fantenberg 70 3 14 20 Alex Biega 49 3 16 28
Olli Juolevi 12 0 3 0
Restricted Free Agents: Boeser, Goldobin
Dobber’s Lowdown on: J.T. Miller – Miller was fourth on the Lightning in Pts/60 with 2.6. He did this playing on the
third line. Miller started the year with Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos, starting out with 18 points in 21 games to
actually lead the Lightning at the time. He was moved to the third line at around the 15-game mark to spread the offense
around and he did okay. But with limited minutes and weaker linemates he was really held back. His 14:40 TOI was his
lowest since his first full NHL season in 2014-15. On the Canucks, the 26-year-old stands to get 17 or even 18 minutes of
ice time, which could mean 10 or 12 more points based on last year‟s Pts/60 number. He also recently crossed the 400-
game threshold and at 218 pounds he falls into our BT system for the year ahead. He hasn‟t seen his best season yet.
 Goldobin was receiving top-six minutes and Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
first-unit PP time last season and in the first half Elias Pettersson 110 82 Quinn Hughes 100%
he impressed with 23 points in 39 games, a 48-
point pace. Very solid for a young player in his Brock Boeser 85 72 Thatcher Demko 100%
first full season. But then he hit an unexplainable Bo Horvat 75 63 Olli Juolevi CUT
wall. He managed just four points in his last 24
Vasily Podkolzin 80 62 Zack MacEwen CUT
games with no noticeable reduction in his ice time
not his PP time. He started getting scratched from J.T. Miller 73 58 Francis Perron CUT
games and downward spiral never ended. It was a Tyler Madden 70 50
genuine head-scratcher and with the acquisitions
of Miller and Ferland, Goldobin owners could be in Micheal Ferland 63 47
trouble. Quinn Hughes 68 47
 After taking a few games to get used to yet Nikolay Goldobin 73 45
another new team last year in Vancouver, Pearson Olli Juolevi 53 45
ended the season with 11 points in 13 games,
forming nice chemistry with Horvat. With Goldobin Tanner Pearson 62 42
on a short leash Pearson could find his way back Adam Gaudette 73 42 Sleeper Pts %
on that Horvat line again.
Jett Woo 55 40 Quinn Hughes 48 20%
 Playing in Sweden, Pettersson was accustomed Sven Baertschi 65 38 Nikolay Goldobin 48 15%
to playing 45 or 50 games per season. He started
to slow at around that point in the NHL, posting Tyler Myers 50 38 Micheal Ferland 57 10%
54 points in 49 games before tiring and managing Jake Virtanen 60 38
12 in 22 to finish. Each season he‟ll push that
Alexander Edler 45 35
scoring pace later and later, until he‟s doing it for
82 games. Josh Leivo 62 32
 In the first quarter of his NHL career, Boeser Francis Perron 67 30

posted 17 points in 17 games. In his second
quarter, 22 in 21. That was the last time he posted a point-per-game or better in any quarter. His six quarters since
then: 12 in 19, 4 in 5, 11 in 13, 17 in 19, 13 in 17 and then 15 points in 20 games to finish 2018-19. Until his breakout
season, it would seem that he has settled into a sub-point-per-game rate.
 At press time it hasn‟t happened yet, but both Eriksson and Baertschi will probably be traded before the season
starts. Said trade would then see the above depth chart and projections make more sense.

Injury Alert: Having returned to action from a knee injury just two games prior, Tanev went down for the count once
more in mid-March after blocking a shot against New Jersey. Add both of those injuries to a hip problem earlier in the
season and the defensive pillar saw his campaign amount to only 55 games. Sutter, another defensive-minded veteran,
dressed for even fewer games than Tanev, 26 in total, because of a shoulder problem, as well as a sports hernia injury
that required surgery. Both are expected to be ready for camp but that can‟t be said for Roussel, who underwent ACL
surgery late in the season and was facing a six-month recovery plan. Be on the lookout for more about his situation as
camp approaches. Elsewhere, let‟s take note of Edler‟s concussion and knee ailments that limited him to 56 games, as
well as Baertschi‟s miserable, 26-game season marred by concussion. Fortunately, both Edler and Baertschi were back
with the team as the season closed. UPDATE: Boeser has suffered a concussion and is out indefinitely. May not be too
long and I already allotted for his missing games. For now, keep the projection as is but stay tuned.
Goaltending: It‟s all about timing. The crease situation in Vancouver has improved over the last couple of years. For
starters, Markstrom has finally staked his claim to the No.1 job after years of unfulfilled promise by registering two
consecutive seasons of 60 games played with identical .912 save percentages and quasi identical goals-against averages
(2.77 last year, 2.71 in 2017-18). At 6-6, the former 31st-overall pick and top goaltending prospect early in his career
with Florida, is a big presence in goal. Now 29 and flopping around in his peak years, his emergence and ability to
shoulder a big workload is another factor working to the club‟s advantage, as it‟s giving promising youngsters Demko and
Michael DiPietro the time needed to sharpen their games at the pro level. Just 23, Demko endured his own injury
problems (concussion, knee) until well into the second half of last year. Recalled by the Canucks from Utica of the AHL
shortly after Year‟s Day, when backup Anders Nilsson was dealt to Ottawa, he got his injury troubles squared away and
finished the season in the big show. In nine outings as a Canuck, Demko fashioned a 2.81 GAA and .913 SV%. Expect
the cerebral, hardworking 23-year-old to see his fair share of action this season, especially since Markstrom is potentially
eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2020. And last but not last, DiPietro. The decorated junior hockey All-Star may
have received his NHL baptism on the losing end of a miserable 7-2 drubbing at the hands of San Jose just last February,
but the best is yet to come. While he‟ll need a bit of time to reach the NHL, everything‟s in place for success: focus,
determination and natural ability. The only downside, albeit minor, is the lack of size compared to the modern-day goalie
– DiPietro is 6-0, 200 pounds. Dobber’s confidence in Markstrom being the starter: 100%
Breakout Threshold: Miller (6-1, 218) qualifies as a large forward and crossed 400 games around the middle of last
year but disappointed as he was stuck in a depth role in Tampa Bay. If there‟s a breakout in him, we‟ll see it now. At the
very least you should have increased hope he‟ll return to his normal totals in the high 50s … Horvat (6-0, 215) also
qualifies as a bigger forward and should cross 400 career games in December. If he has another level to reach, we might
have to wait until midseason to start seeing results.
Contract Year: The Canucks rebuild has been riding the hot track, as general manager Jim Benning is stockpiling an
impressive ensemble of young talent. Surrounding
those assets with quality veterans is yet another Blocked Shots Hits
ingredient required for winning clubs, hence the
reason he‟ll surely direct his attention toward Tanev Alexander Edler 170 Tyler Motte 203
and Markstrom, most particularly, when the next Jordie Benn 120 Micheal Ferland 160
round of contract talks begin. Also slated for potential
UFA status in 2020 are Leivo, Schaller, Fantenberg, Tyler Myers 109 Jake Virtanen 155
and Biega, so they‟ll be on the spot … Regarding RFA Christopher Tanev 106 Alex Biega 131
extensions to deal with by next July 1, Benning will
Troy Stecher 79 Tanner Pearson 123
first and foremost weigh his options with Virtanen
and Stecher, and then see where he thinks Gaudette, Quinn Hughes 78 Alexander Edler 118
Motte, Perron, and Bailey fit in the organization‟s
Oscar Fantenberg 73 J.T. Miller 114
grand scheme of things following their 2019-20
performances. Bo Horvat 59 Oscar Fantenberg 106
Tyler Motte 53 Jay Beagle 103
PIM: While we may not necessarily see it in the form
of generous penalty minute numbers, a good amount Elias Pettersson 53 Jordie Benn 93
of toughness was added to the Canucks‟ lineup over
the offseason. Ferland, signed as an unrestricted free agent from Carolina, is the same chap that rode roughshod over
the Canucks as a member of Calgary in the 2015 playoffs. He‟ll not only bring presence, but also a hearty and underrated
level of skill that may be placed alongside Pettersson and Boeser, making him an intriguing points-plus-PIM performer.
He just needs to avoid a certain level of inconsistency, which has plagued him before. Joining the husky winger as
summer additions are vets Miller, Myers and Benn, all big bodies that stand up for their teammates even if they don‟t
frequent the box on a regular basis. And last but not least, especially in this department, don‟t forget about Roussel‟s 118
PIM in 2018-19. One of hockey‟s most agitating players may miss the start of the season because of ACL surgery but
should be back shortly thereafter. Last year‟s total surpassed the 100-PIM mark for the sixth consecutive season.
Plus-Minus: Stecher, Roussel, Leivo, Tanev, Edler and Pettersson were in the positive last season with everyone else in
the negative. The worst culprits – Erik Gudbranson (minus-27) and Ben Hutton (minus-23) were let go or traded, leaving
the rest of the roster in that minus-9 to „even‟ range. The team has improved and become deeper and I would expect
most players to fall in that minus-5 to plus-10 range. The first line has potential to approach plus-20 here.

Dobber Advanced… CANUCKS
 First thing I noticed was that Leivo
was treated with kid gloves, heavily
sheltered and it doesn‟t look like it was
necessary. He can shoulder more than
this without being a burden and giving
up an inordinate amount of chances.
Boeser and Pettersson same thing, and
as they mature, they will see tougher
minutes.
 New Blue Pouliot may not be the
offensive dynamo we expected, but
last season possession-wise he wasn‟t
so bad. He was sheltered, but not too
much. He did face tougher opponents
on occasion and created more chances
than he gave up.
 Horvat is being used as this team‟s
Patrice Bergeron. He‟s not there yet, of
course, but he‟s getting there.
 Surprisingly, Virtanen is being used
as a defensive forward against tougher
opponents and he‟s not doing too bad.
It may not bode well for his offensive
upside down the road, but he‟s finding
his NHL niche.
 Tanev is seeing the tough minutes
that Edler is seeing, but is far less
effective with them.
 Pearson, Eriksson and Virtanen had
very low 5on5 S% numbers. And while
there is little hope for Eriksson who is
on the decline, the other two have some upside. Given Virtanen‟s role here, his trend is probably moving upwards
regardless, but not very quickly. It‟s Pearson who stands to bounce back the most, looking at everything here.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
ELIAS PETTERSSON C 71 69.4 1008 0.907 10.1 50.14 65.8 75.9 79.6 68.8 3.1
BROCK BOESER R 69 69.7 999 0.899 10 50.24 69.1 63.6 68.3 55.6 2.5
TANNER PEARSON L 19 46.3 985 0.926 5.9 47.4 35.4 69.2 71 62.5 2.3
SVEN BAERTSCHI L 26 65.6 977 0.891 8.6 45.03 59.2 70 63.6 77.8 2.1
ANTOINE ROUSSEL L 65 38 1008 0.924 8.4 49.47 1 77.5 76.9 0 2.1
BO HORVAT C 82 39.9 1001 0.921 8 49.03 65.6 61 63.5 52.9 2.1
NIKOLAY GOLDOBIN R 63 62.7 998 0.914 8.4 49.24 46.6 57.4 54.8 60 1.7
ALEXANDER EDLER D 56 41.5 990 0.912 7.8 47.43 65.8 45.9 32.7 70.8 1.5
LOUI ERIKSSON L 81 38.3 992 0.928 6.4 47.08 24.7 76.3 78.8 75 1.5
JAKE VIRTANEN R 70 44.4 994 0.927 6.8 47.37 24 61 65.7 33.3 1.4

Vegas GOLDEN KNIGHTS
Reilly Smith 74 21 53 22 William Karlsson 82 27 67 14 J. Marchessault 78 27 69 48

Max Pacioretty 71 25 49 36 Paul Stastny 66 15 54 30 Mark Stone 71 30 71 24
Brandon Pirri 62 18 34 18 Cody Glass 72 11 31 18 Alex Tuch 70 18 46 20
William Carrier 58 7 11 36 Cody Eakin 73 14 34 24 Ryan Reaves 76 5 16 80
Tomas Nosek 64 8 17 16 Valentin Zykov 37 7 10 4

Nate Schmidt 68 6 35 16 Shea Theodore 79 13 49 26 Marc-Andre Fleury 57 33 5
Brayden McNabb 77 6 17 55 Deryk Engelland 77 3 14 38 Garret Sparks 7 3 0
Jimmy Schuldt 75 4 26 26 Jon Merrill 58 3 14 55 Malcolm Subban 24 8 1
Nick Holden 70 4 18 26 Nic Hague 8 0 2 0 Oscar Dansk 1 1 0
Restricted Free Agents: Schuldt
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Alex Tuch – The 6-4, 222-pound power forward is a long ways away from the 400-game BT
(Breakout Threshold). But last season he looked as though he didn‟t care about our silly stats and analysis and was going
to break out anyway. The 23-year-old had 33 points in the first 37 games, almost unheard of from power forwards two
seasons in. But much of that was luck-driven – he was getting the bounces both for his own scoring (14 goals on just 88
shots) and with his linemates doing well. With the same ice time, PP time and linemates, Tuch managed just 19 points in
his last 37 games and there‟s your market correction. A 52-point season is still very impressive, but with Stone on the
team Tuch is now firmly entrenched on the third line. It‟s still one of the more talented third lines in the league, but it will
be tough for him to build on that 52-point season. I‟m putting him back on that 400-game BT plan, and will enjoy his 45-
to 55-point seasons until then.
 When Stone joined the team after the Trade Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
Deadline it wasn‟t his new linemates who received Mark Stone 92 75 Cody Glass 60%
a shot in the arm when it comes to production. It
was the other scoring line. Smith, Marchessault Jon. Marchessault 85 68 Brandon Pirri 60%
and Karlsson tallied 18, 17 and 17 points William Karlsson 82 65 Valentin Zykov 45%
respectively in those 18 games. Other teams now
Alex Tuch 75 62 Nicolas Hague CUT
have to focus on the most talented player, Stone,
which gives a bit of breathing room to the most Peyton Krebs 80 60 Oscar Dansk CUT
talented line. Max Pacioretty 75 55 Nicolas Roy CUT
 This is a bit of a longshot, because this player Reilly Smith 75 53 Jimmy Schuldt 90%
was heavily sheltered (see Advanced) and
Cody Glass 85 53
sometimes scratched – and if the coach doesn‟t
trust him, neither should we. But… in the last 33 Paul Stastny 60 50
games, Merrill had 13 points, was plus-10 with 49 Shea Theodore 58 48
Hits and 36 BLKS. That‟s a pace of 32 points, 122
Hits and 89 BLKS. Nicolas Roy 65 45
Nicolas Hague 52 40 Sleeper Pts %
 Although Stone had just 11 points in 18 games
after arriving in Vegas, he tallied 12 points in seven Nate Schmidt 45 37 Mark Stone 85 20%
playoff games after that. He, Pacioretty and Cody Eakin 55 35 Max Pacioretty 75 15%
Stastny finally figured each other out and it was
magical to see – Pacioretty had 11 points, Stastny Brandon Pirri 65 32 Cody Glass 45 15%
had eight. Lots of potential there. Valentin Zykov 58 28
 Pirri had eight goals and five assists in the first Jimmy Schuldt 52 28
11 games after he was called up in December. Tomas Nosek 40 25
After that he slowed to five points in 20 games.
Consistency has always been an issue with him – at
28 he‟s not going to change.
 When Colin Miller was injured from mid-December through mid-January, Schmidt‟s production shot up. He had 10
points in 13 games, with three of them on the power play. With Miller traded to Buffalo, Schmidt has an opportunity for a
few extra points.

Injury Alert: A relentless style of play as employed by the Golden Knights will often lead to injuries. Some years,
though, you knock on wood and the situation isn‟t as dire as it looks and/or could be. Aside from Stastny‟s lower body
injury that kept him out of action for 30 contests just three games into 2018-19, the Knights weren‟t faced with major
injuries to key players currently with the club. The most concerning, for a short spell anyway, was Fleury‟s nine-game
stint on the sidelines due to a lower body injury just before the postseason got underway. Luckily, all fell into place and
Fleury was back at it in games #81 and #82 before clashing with San Jose in Round 1…Reaves has an undisclosed injury
that will cause him to miss all of training camp…Tuch has an upper-body injury and is considered “week to week”…Lower-
body injury for Schmidt in Game 1, he is also “week to week”.
Goaltending: If there‟s one area of the team‟s picture that can be classified as cloudy, or possibly lacking depth, it has
to be in goal. Not if you consider team goals allowed, though, since Vegas was a top-10 team on the good side of that
department last year, and not if you consider Fleury, either, who‟s still one of the circuit‟s finest… but certainly if you
measure the combined experience and potential of the candidates vying for the role of Fleury‟s understudy. Subban,
Sparks, Dansk, and a few others deep in the roots of the organization, make your pick! Injury seasons aside, the soon-
to-be 35 (in November) Fleury can‟t keep playing about 60 games a year forever, we all know that. And his 35 wins, 2.51
goals-against average and .913 save percentage over 61 matchups are not easily replaced. So, either general manager
George McPhee knows something about his goalie depth that we don‟t know (let‟s give him the benefit of the doubt, eh
;), or we‟re simply not properly measuring the potential that resides in the aforementioned Subban, Sparks and Dansk. A
first-round pick by the Bruins in 2012, Subban, 25, has yet to firmly establish his niche in the NHL despite having spent
the last two years in Vegas. Is he now a career backup, or does he still have a chance at a starter‟s role, which was
envisioned by onlookers during his draft year? How about the 26-year-old Sparks, signed as an unrestricted free agent
this past summer – has the former AHL All-Star shown enough to be ultimately considered as Fleury‟s successor? And
then there‟s Dansk, 25, does he possess the potential required? Is he the sleeper of the troika? There are so many
unanswered questions emanating from Vegas‟ crease that the answers, or lack thereof, could sink the team if Fleury gets
seriously injured at the wrong time and/or starts to fade into his decline sooner than expected. McPhee isn‟t gun-shy
when it comes to trading for assets, so what‟s he waiting for here? Why hasn‟t the Knights‟ crease been fortified?
Dobber’s confidence in Fleury being the starter: 100%
Breakout Threshold: In Stone‟s breakout year, he actually slowed down significantly after the trade to Vegas. Prior to
the move, he was on pace for 86 points. At 6-4 and 219 pounds, he qualifies as a big forward and currently sits at 384
career games, increasing the likelihood of another points increase … McNabb (395 GP) is already quite good in multi-
category leagues. He will cross the 400-game BT for defensemen in October, which lines things up for improved offensive
numbers, which will further improve his multi-category value.
Contract Year: A slew of role players will visit with GM McPhee at various points over the next year to discuss contract
extensions. Slated for unrestricted free agency if no
new arrangement can be made will be Eakin, Reaves, Blocked Shots Hits
Nosek, Holden, Merrill, and Engelland. All honest
players but none that McPhee will lose ant sleep over Brayden McNabb 155 Ryan Reaves 286
… On the restricted side of things, Carrier will carry Deryk Engelland 144 William Carrier 282
the most weight and most likely receive a next-level
Nate Schmidt 119 Brayden McNabb 209
offer, while Subban and Zykov will need to step it up
in 2019-20 if they wish to remain Golden Knights. Jimmy Schuldt 94 Deryk Engelland 140
Shea Theodore 91 Nick Holden 119
PIM: In general, the Knights may play with the same
level of intensity that coach Gerard Gallant was Nick Holden 88 Max Pacioretty 102
known for when he made his NHL living more than Jon Merrill 73 Jonathan Marchessault 101
two decades ago, but it‟s mainly just three players
that lay down the law when required. And Mark Stone 56 Alex Tuch 94
unfortunately, while the city of Vegas surely is, the William Karlsson 55 Jimmy Schuldt 84
Knights‟ roster is not a fantasy pooler‟s dream
destination when it comes to penalty minutes. Alex Tuch 43 Cody Eakin 72
Reaves and Engelland, with 74 and 18 PIM,
respectively, are two of the league‟s best pugilists, but because of that fact, most NHLers are reluctant to try them on for
size. Hence the now-low sin bin totals. As for the third banger alluded to, Carrier will wear you down with his strength
and size, and even wow you at times with underrated skill, but he‟s not a PIM collector and will never be an offensive
contributor. A dark horse for penalty minutes is summer UFA signee Tyrell Goulbourne (Philadelphia) but he‟ll have to
make the team first.
Plus-Minus: Pacioretty was the low guy at minus-13 but his plum new spot on the Stone line should help right that ship.
Schmidt led all Knights with plus-22, and seven players were at plus-11, or better. This team should probably be similar
to last year‟s version, with the majority of players falling between minus-5 and plus-15, with the Karlsson line hovering
just above „even‟.

Dobber Advanced… GOLDEN KNIGHTS
 Interesting to see coach Gerard
Gallant shelter his checking lines and
use his top lines as checkers. That‟s
what is happening at even strength in
this chart: Haula, Carpenter, Nosek,
Bellemare and Reaves were seeing the
most offensive zone starts against the
weakest competition. While Karlsson,
Smith, Marchessault, Stone, Pacioretty
and Stastny saw the tougher opposition
and more defensive zone starts. Gallant
played not to lose last year, as opposed
to playing to win. He feared giving up a
few extra goals if his checking lines
were used to check. This handcuffs the
offensive players, actually holding them
back.
 The shutdown line was Karlsson,
Smith and „Marchy‟. More so, even,
than the prior year. And they didn‟t
handle it as well as they did in 2017-18.
Part of the reason why none of them
were able to reach 60 points.
 Schmidt was the lead shutdown
defenseman, with McNabb and
Engelland sharing secondary duties
there. At least this freed up Theodore
and Miller for offensive tasks. It‟s a
head-scratcher as to why Merrill is
taking minutes that Theodore and Miller
could effectively use. Merrill was
scratched two dozen times, and lack of
the coach‟s trust is the reason why.
 Pirri was an effective possession-driving forward who didn‟t have to be sheltered. It bodes well for his getting into the
lineup in the year ahead.
 Tuch‟s power-play IPP (below) is a little alarming. Competition for PP time will be fierce on this team and if he‟s not a
part of creating the goals, he‟s not going to win out. Especially when you see Pirri in on every single PP goal (so far)
when he‟s on the ice.
 Theodore had an obscenely-low 5on5 S% at 6.0% that just screams „rebound ahead‟. Pacioretty was also a little low
(below) and as long as he lines up alongside Stone then a rebound is a certainty regardless.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
PAUL STASTNY C 50 54.5 1014 0.93 8.4 55.94 46 71.2 73.5 50 2.8
ALEX TUCH R 74 55.1 1018 0.923 9.5 53.79 52.2 64.2 75.4 30 2.5
JON. MARCHESSAULT C 82 51.1 992 0.905 8.8 52.74 55.8 62.1 60 64 2.4
BRANDON PIRRI C 31 61.3 1045 0.954 9 56.69 41.9 66.7 60.9 100 2.4
REILLY SMITH R 74 51 996 0.91 8.6 54.13 52.5 63.9 62.5 60.9 2.4
WILLIAM KARLSSON C 82 50.2 986 0.901 8.5 53.34 50.5 65.9 63.9 70 2.2
MAX PACIORETTY L 66 53.6 979 0.907 7.2 52.29 53.5 69 78 47.1 2.1
MARK STONE R 18 49.8 1020 0.919 10.1 52.99 53.6 67.6 63.4 80 2.1
CODY EAKIN C 78 51.6 1036 0.936 10 49.65 23.2 67.2 65.4 80 2.1
SHEA THEODORE D 79 55.2 979 0.919 6 56.26 49.7 51.4 50.9 50 1.4

Washington CAPITALS
A. Ovechkin 82 46 86 42 Evgeny Kuznetsov 77 22 77 44 Tom Wilson 72 20 47 142

Jakub Vrana 78 25 52 26 N. Backstrom 80 21 74 34 T.J. Oshie 72 25 51 38
Carl Hagelin 67 8 24 30 Lars Eller 81 14 37 34 Richard Panik 76 15 37 46
Chandler Stephenson 66 3 17 6 Nic Dowd 63 7 16 24 Garnet Hathaway 75 8 20 74
Shane Gersich 8 0 2 2 Travis Boyd 62 5 21 10 Brendan Leipsic 66 8 27 26

John Carlson 78 12 68 34 Dmitry Orlov 82 5 33 30 Braden Holtby 59 33 3
Nick Jensen 80 2 20 24 Radko Gudas 76 5 21 82 Pheonix Copley 26 15 1
Jonas Siegenthaler 66 1 8 22 Michal Kempny 72 4 23 48 Ilya Samsonov 2 1 0
Christian Djoos 48 3 13 10
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Jakub Vrana – At 176 games he just slides in under our Breakout Threshold. Using that theory,
he should start to really pull away around midseason with a strong second half. His production has been rising steadily,
as has his usage. At this point he‟s exclusively playing with Backstrom which is obviously as ideal as it gets. His rise in
value has been meteoric and it won‟t stop now. In the long term he will be a first-liner. But until there is room on that
top PP unit, he won‟t hit his upside (give that one a few seasons yet).
 Wilson has not been injured in five years. But Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
has been suspended. Frequently. Four times in two Alex Ovechkin 95 85 Jonas Siegenthaler 90%
years, actually. His next suspension is going to be
at least 20 games, possibly a half-season. So, the Nicklas Backstrom 95 77 Shane Gersich CUT
bottom line is he is either going to play 82 Evgeny Kuznetsov 97 75 Ilya Samsonov 15%
games…or 62 games. There‟s no in-between here,
John Carlson 77 67 Axel Johnsson Fjallby CUT
unless…he gets his suspension in March with just a
few games left? In an informal Twitter poll Jakub Vrana 78 58
(@DobberHockey), about 75% of followers voted Tom Wilson 70 52
that he would get suspended and should be
counted on for only 62 games. The projection is for T.J. Oshie 62 50
the midpoint – 72 games. Alexander Alexeyev 62 45
 More on Wilson: It looks as though the Caps Connor McMichael 70 45
spent the entire summer trying to find a way to Shane Gersich 70 43
keep Wilson on the ice and playing. That means
keep him from getting suspended and try to have Axel Jonsson Fjallby 62 40
him dial back on the penalties. They added Gudas Richard Panik 57 37 Sleeper Pts %
and Hathaway and clearly the preference is to have
Lars Eller 50 37 Jakub Vrana 62 25%
one of them sit in the box instead of Wilson. It‟s
entirely possible that Wilson‟s PIM numbers Lucas Johansen 52 37 Tom Wilson 57 20%
plummet and his goals and assists increase. Dmitry Orlov 48 32
 In the last 15 games with Calgary, Hathaway Brendan Leipsic 65 32
accrued nine points and 46 Hits.
Travis Boyd 60 30
 After starting off the year with 16 points in 30 Carl Hagelin 45 27
games, Oshie picked up 38 points in 39 contests to
end the campaign. He was pretty much with Christian Djoos 50 25
Backstrom and Vrana throughout, so it was just a
matter of that line starting to gel.
 Oddly enough, while Oshie surged in the second half, his linemate Backstrom slipped. It‟s as if opponents covered
Oshie in the first half, and then shifted focus to Backstrom in the second half. Backstrom had 44 in 41 to start, and then
30 in 39 down the stretch. With Vrana on the rise, the Capitals are going to have two high-level scoring lines in the year
ahead.

Injury Alert: The Caps should be heading into training camp healthy for the most part. The lone exception being
Kempny, who underwent surgery in April to repair a torn left hamstring. He‟ll be cutting it close for training camp as
the timeline puts him back in action at the start of October … Djoos was the other player with a major ailment last
season, missing 24 contests from December to February with a left thigh injury … Oshie missed 11 games in the first
half last year, and he can generally be counted on to miss 10 or 12 games each season. UPDATE: Kuznetsov has been
suspended for the first three games of the regular season for improper conduct.
Goaltending: Samsonov is still an elite, highly-regarded goaltending prospect, while Holtby is still a highly-paid,
proven starting goaltender. The big change over the past year was the emergence of Copley as a legitimate backup. It
wasn‟t good enough to put himself in the mix as a possible starter (.905 SV% in 27 GP) but as a backup he‟s been
adequate. Holtby is entering the final year of his contract and Samsonov will need to get into a few games to show
brass that he is (or is not) capable of making the jump. It‟s a big year for the youngster … And 23-year-old Czech
goalie Vitek Vanecek had a real nice AHL campaign. He outplayed Samsonov and if he does it again, he could work
himself right into the mix … Dobber’s confidence in Holtby being the starter: 100%
Breakout Threshold: Vrana (176 GP) had a strong 47-point effort, which included a 52-point pace in the second half.
He is trending up and he should cross 200 games by December. Multicategory beast Gudas has 416 games under his
belt, meaning he exceeded 400 career games towards the end of last season. Around that time, he showed positive
signs, producing at a 30-point pace in the final quarter. On the goal-heavy Capitals, Gudas should have an easier time
making that happen.
Blocked Shots Hits
Contract Year: It‟s a huge contract year for the
Capitals and they will have trouble re-signing both John Carlson 144 Radko Gudas 249
Holtby and Backstrom. Holtby is a five-time 54-game Radko Gudas 135 Tom Wilson 222
player and 32-game winner and a big season would
mean millions more on his next contract. Backstrom Michal Kempny 123 Alex Ovechkin 193
is a former 101-point stud and consistent 70- to 80- Dmitry Orlov 104 Garnet Hathaway 191
point player who will also command big bucks. His
Nick Jensen 102 Richard Panik 140
wallet would swell up even further if he can put
together another strong year. Gudas is the UFA on Jonas Siegenthaler 100 Dmitry Orlov 129
tap. Elsewhere, players set to become RFAs next
Christian Djoos 58 T.J. Oshie 120
summer are support players: Stephenson, Boyd,
Leipsic, Djoos, and Siegenthaler. T.J. Oshie 55 Nic Dowd 93
Tom Wilson 53 Michal Kempny 89
PIM: This will be an interesting campaign for the
Capitals in this department. Wilson had 128 PIM in Lars Eller 49 Nick Jensen 79
just 63 games and Kempny had 60 in 71. The team
acquired two aggressive players in Hathaway and Gudas. Were those players added to act as a buffer between Wilson
and the penalty box (and, ahem, another suspension)? If Hathaway and Gudas are out there causing havoc, it would
certainly leave Wilson to focus on something he discovered last season – putting up points. Don‟t be surprised if Wilson‟s
PIM take a sharp dip – and if he avoids getting suspended again, so much the better. While this won‟t mean anything
drastic like dipping below 100 PIM (that would be crazy talk), a decline could be in the cards. And by the same token,
Hathaway and Gudas could see a healthy increase.
Plus-Minus: Other than Stephenson (minus-13) and the departed Dmitrij Jaskin, Devante Smith-Pelly and Matt
Niskanen, the lowest Caps player in this category was Eller at minus-1. Everyone else was above the „even‟ line and six
players were plus-10 or higher, led by Kempny‟s plus-24. This season, because Washington players‟ high 5on5 S% and
5on5 SV%, expect this their plus-minus ratings to slip by a couple of points versus 2018-19. Say between minus-5 and
plus-10.

Dobber Advanced… CAPITALS
 With Niskanen gone, Jensen could take over
as the defensive defenseman. Or perhaps
Orlov. Losing Niskanen could hit Carlson as
well, reducing his offensive zone starts and
therefore his production. Gudas was used by
the Flyers in that capacity, but against weaker
competition. Try him against top lines and it
could spell trouble.
 The underlying numbers for Djoos got a little
worse in his second season, but he was still
heavily sheltered. He hasn‟t really made his
mark in the NHL yet and I‟m losing confidence
that it will happen. This is a big year for him.
 Hagelin was a possession beast for the Caps.
Obviously, his speed was just what the doctor
ordered for this team. But the offensive zone
starts are too high for a 35-point player – 15
games of this data was when he was on the
Evgeni Malkin line with Pittsburgh, 20 games on
the Ilya Kovalchuk line with Los Angeles. With
the Caps he was on the Connolly line, which
had zone starts towards the middle.
 Ovechkin, Kuznetsov and Wilson losing
possession is a little concerning. But clearly
coach Todd Reirden takes the defensive hit for
the offense they provide.
 Interesting to see Wilson (below) was a
bigger part of the team‟s power play (IPP of 62.5%) than Ovechkin, Kuznetsov or Backstrom. It bodes well for him
getting more PP time, perhaps at the expense of Oshie.
 A lot of key players on this team had a 5on5 S% that was too high. Pucks were going in at a rate that was well above
the norm for the Ovechkin line. As stars in this league, a normal rate for them is about 10% (or for Carlson it is usually
closer to 9%). Ovechkin (11.8%), Kuznetsov (11.5%), Vrana (11.3%), Carlson (12.2%) are concerns in terms of
declining a few points just from „expected‟ puck luck. Carlson‟s 70-point days might be done.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
ALEX OVECHKIN L 81 56.9 1031 0.912 11.8 48.99 90.5 64.5 67 59.6 3.2
EVGENY KUZNETSOV C 76 58.6 1043 0.928 11.5 47.36 74 65.5 71 56.1 3
NICKLAS BACKSTROM C 80 51 1012 0.915 9.7 49.95 75.8 65.5 71 56.8 2.8
BRETT CONNOLLY R 81 50.8 1031 0.92 11 50.05 19.3 73 77.2 33.3 2.6
T.J. OSHIE R 69 54.3 1030 0.928 10.2 50.39 68.5 57.4 66.7 38.9 2.5
JAKUB VRANA L 82 52.6 1043 0.93 11.3 50.05 23.2 70.1 69.4 80 2.4
TRAVIS BOYD C 53 48.4 1041 0.927 11.4 48.46 5.7 71.4 69.2 100 2.3
CARL HAGELIN L 20 57.7 1006 0.916 9 54.24 1.2 51.4 52.8 0 2.2
TOM WILSON R 63 52.7 1021 0.915 10.6 48.93 28.7 59.7 57.9 62.5 2.1
JOHN CARLSON D 80 57.4 1033 0.911 12.2 51.03 83.7 45.5 35.2 71.7 2.1

Winnipeg JETS
Kyle Connor 82 35 67 20 Mark Scheifele 74 33 76 36 Blake Wheeler 82 25 88 56

Patrik Laine 79 31 60 34 Bryan Little 68 16 35 20 Nikolaj Ehlers 75 24 58 20
Kristian Vesalainen 46 10 20 10 Adam Lowry 78 14 31 38 Jack Roslovic 79 13 39 12
Mathieu Perreault 72 14 32 40 Andrew Copp 72 12 28 10 Mason Appleton 76 13 29 30
Joona Luoto 24 1 5 14 Andrei Chibisov 50 7 17 45

Dustin Byfuglien 59 8 41 92 Josh Morrissey 75 8 47 32 Connor Hellebuyck 62 35 3
Neal Pionk 75 7 33 36 Dmitry Kulikov 55 1 10 42 Laurent Brossoit 23 10 2
Nathan Beaulieu 66 3 18 42 Tucker Poolman 58 3 15 12
Carl Dahlstrom 44 1 8 10 Ville Heinola 9 0 2 4
Sami Niku 46 3 17 12 Anthony Bitetto 39 0 4 12
Restricted Free Agents: Laine, Connor, Comrie
Dobber’s Lowdown on: Jack Roslovic – Roslovic has made a habit of defying odds by taking slim opportunities given to
him and forcing open the door with stronger than expected results. But last season this was really put the test as the
then-21-year-old was given 7:00 ATOI for first quarter of the season and not much more than that the rest of the way.
The team struggled as a whole, so Coach Paul Maurice didn‟t have the comfort zone to play his youngsters freely. With a
couple of forwards now with new teams, the needle should finally move a little bit for Roslovic in terms of his ice time.
This doesn‟t mean 60 points. It just means he can do what we thought/expected/hoped he would have done last year.
Still on a four-year plan, possibly five, for fantasy hockey owners and entering the third year.
 From November 1 through December 16, Laine Long-term: Upside / 3YP Prospect %
had 25 points in 21 games including 20 goals! Mark Scheifele 105 85 Mason Appleton 99%
Think about that – 20 goals in 21 games, including
three hat tricks and a five-goal outburst. The rest Blake Wheeler 100 83 Eric Comrie CUT
of the season he had 10 goals, 25 points in 61 Kyle Connor 80 70 Tucker Poolman 80%
games. So, what was the reason? The only
Nikolaj Ehlers 90 70 Sami Niku CUT
deviation in terms of PP time, PP production ice
time and linemates was one thing – Connor. This Patrik Laine 88 67 Joona Luoto CUT
was the only timeframe in which Connor was Kristian Vesalainen 75 55 Andrei Chibisov CUT
Laine‟s regular linemate. Maybe having a sniper on
the other wing made goaltenders and opponents Josh Morrissey 65 50 Kristian Vesalainen CUT
hesitate. Who was going to shoot? Linemates will Jack Roslovic 72 47 Ville Heinola 50%
play a huge role in the output of several Winnipeg
Dustin Byfuglien 65 47
players, not the least of which is Laine.
Mason Appleton 73 42
 After returning from a lower-body injury in early
January, Pionk managed just six points in the final Bryan Little 62 40
32 games. Before that he had 20 in 41, including a Logan Stanley 50 37 Sleeper Pts %
highlight-reel beauty of a goal that made the
Sami Niku 57 36 Josh Morrissey 55 20%
rounds early on. His possession numbers weren‟t
great (see NYR Advanced section), but he faced Andrew Copp 58 35 Nikolaj Ehlers 70 15%
tough competition and was given defensive-zone Adam Lowry 57 35 Jack Roslovic 55 15%
minutes.
Neal Pionk 50 32 Mason Appleton 45 10%
 After he plays 49 NHL games, Niku will have to
Mathieu Perreault 62 32
clear waivers in order to be sent down. So if he‟s
not making it clearly obvious that he belongs as we Nathan Beaulieu 40 25
hit January, he is at risk of being demoted for at Andrei Chibisov 43 25
least a few games…Comrie and Tucker both need to
clear waivers in order to be sent down, increasing
their odds of making the team.
 With very minimal ice time, Appleton went on a run of eight points in 21 games leading up to the trade deadline. The
Jets acquired Kevin Hayes, there was no room for Appleton, and he was sent back down. That kind of Pts/60 production
was very impressive though. The 2017-18 AHL rookie-of-the-year has done nothing but impress since turning pro.
 Morrissey‟s production with Byfuglien in the lineup (0.51 points per game, 24 games) was remarkably similar to his
production with Big Buff out of the lineup (0.54 in 35 games).

Injury Alert: Byfuglien struggled all season long with issues in his ankle, missing 19 games in the final quarter as well
as 15 games in the middle of the season for what is believed to be the same thing (officially his leg). Big Buff really
needed this summer break … Ehlers missed 20 games with a shoulder injury, and then in Game 5 of the playoffs
against St. Louis he took a Colton Parayko shot off the leg, suffering a fracture. He played the next game, and the
fracture did not require surgery so he is expected to be fine for camp… Laine has been troubled by a bad back for the
past couple of seasons. Flare-ups are said to come and go. A long summer will certainly help, but the problem will crop
up again at some point … Morrissey missed the last 20 games of the season with an upper-body injury. He returned in
time for the playoffs, albeit not at 100%. But he will be fine for camp…UPDATE: Byfuglien has been granted a “personal
leave of absence” from the team with no further details given. So he could be back tomorrow, or a week or a month
or? For now, no adjustment to his projection. UPDATE II: Byfuglien could be mulling retirement. RISK!... Beaulieu has
an upper-body injury and is out indefinitely…Little (concussion) is out indefinitely.
Goaltending: Hellebuyck is the Golden Boy for the Jets. He has the big contract and the Vezina nomination (2017-18)
and the team will continue to ride him. Comrie has to clear waivers to be sent down this year, so the backup job will be
interesting. On one hand you have Brossoit who had a fantastic year, even better than Hellebuyck‟s though in one-
third of the game. On the other hand, you have the hotshot youngster Comrie, a former second-round draft pick who
has done very well at the AHL level and there is no way he would get through waivers. But Comrie‟s five games of NHL
experience have each been rather bad, to put it mildly. This will only end in a trade – one of Brossoit or Comrie will go,
and both goaltenders will get their share of NHL action… Dobber’s confidence in Hellebuyck being the starter:
100%
Breakout Threshold: In addition to Connor‟s career-best 66 points last year, he also had an even stronger second half
where he produced at a 74-point pace. With 178 games of experience, he will reach 200 in the early portion of the year,
make it likely we‟ll see him at his peak … Lowry (359
GP) is strong in deeper multi-category leagues and Blocked Shots Hits
will hit the 400-game BT for bigger forwards by
midseason. He might be in for a boost in offense Josh Morrissey 140 Adam Lowry 215
down the stretch to compliment his excellent Neal Pionk 104 Neal Pionk 139
peripheral stats.
Dustin Byfuglien 80 Dustin Byfuglien 127
Contract Year: Brossoit is likely the goalie who will Dmitry Kulikov 73 Mathieu Perreault 114
be moved. His value is high right now and he is
entering a contract year that would end with his Nathan Beaulieu 69 Joona Luoto 104
becoming an unrestricted free agent. A big season Sami Niku 69 Josh Morrissey 103
could be in the cards as he tries to solidify a long-
Blake Wheeler 57 Andrew Copp 86
term NHL contract. Kulikov, Beaulieu and Chibisov
each have expiring contracts this season and each Adam Lowry 51 Andrei Chibisov 85
would become UFA next summer. Morrissey is a huge
Mark Scheifele 49 Blake Wheeler 77
name entering a contract year (restricted). The
difference between him getting 40 points versus 50 Tucker Poolman 41 Patrik Laine 75
points is millions of dollars in potential earnings. Niku
is another of next summer‟s RFA to earn a better deal. UPDATE: Morrissey signed an 8-year deal.
PIM: Three of the top five PIM players from last year have gone bye-bye. All are defensemen. Two left as unrestricted
free agents (Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot) while one (Jacob Trouba) was traded. Byfuglien led the Jets last season with
69 PIM despite missing 40 games. He‟ll lead them again this year. Wheeler showed himself to be a solid multi-category
option last season by adding 60 PIM to his sweet 91-point total. Beaulieu had 39 PIM in 48 games. With more ice time he
could potentially get 60. Newcomer Chibisov has a bit of potential. But in general, the Jets lack that rough-and-tough
player beyond Byfuglien.
Plus-Minus: Ignoring Laine and his minus-24 for a moment, and his linemate Little‟s minus-12, the Jets had all players
hovering around „even‟. The entire roster was between minus-7 and plus-11, except for Copp at plus-20. This greatly
improves if Hellebuyck bounces back and if last year was just a sophomore slump for Laine. Everything just gets better
when the second line is humming. A lot will depend on Laine and if he can find his game on a consistent basis (which
should probably involve separating him from Little, but coach Paul Maurice probably doesn‟t read fantasy hockey Guides).
Understand the risk involving Laine in this category and go with the Jets hovering around „even‟ again – but with upside
for so much more.

Dobber Advanced… JETS
 Laine was sheltered and was the worst
possession player on the team. Despite
57.5% offensive zone starts, his CF% was
45.02. In the prior season, Laine‟s usage
was quite similar and although he had a
negative relative CF%, it was close to
even. And as a second-year player he can
be excused for that. But this year his
metrics are startling and not in a good
way.
 Tanev and Lowry handling defensive
minutes effectively allowed for the scoring
lines to see more offensive zone starts.
The Jets don‟t have a replacement for
Tanev, so either the scoring forwards lose
a few offensive zone starts (costing them
some points) or someone like Perreault or
prospect Joona Luoto takes it. Neither of
whom have the experience in that area to
pull it off.
 Ehlers was the only top sixer who
drove possession effectively. The top line
of Wheeler, Scheifele and Connor gave up
chances (relative to competition) as much
as they created them. Ehlers under-
produced and many signs point to this
changing.
 Roslovic was the most sheltered player
on the team, not trusted at all against the
other team‟s top lines. It was his first full season though.
 Not only is Little‟s production declining, but his ability to drive possession is also slipping. Perhaps it‟s playing with
Laine that is making Little look worse. Which one is the chicken and which is the egg? Whichever way you‟re leaning (I‟m
leaning Laine), it‟s clear that these two should not be linemates.
 Connor faced tougher opposition last season, seeing more responsibility. He lost possession more often than not. His
entire line (with Wheeler and Scheifele) was overmatched at times. The trio could benefit from the „Evgeni Malkin‟
treatment. That is to say – get those offensive zone starts, but against weaker opponents.
 Despite Laine‟s poor season, his 5on5 S% (below) is not low at 8.7%. So, it wasn‟t a result of just bad luck.
5on5 5on5
SV% S%
BLAKE WHEELER R 82 56.7 1003 0.915 8.8 49.06 71.1 74 73 73.3 3.2
MARK SCHEIFELE C 82 56.2 1011 0.924 8.8 48.76 71.2 65.1 72.2 50 2.8
KEVIN HAYES R 20 54.7 1005 0.912 9.3 50.59 24.3 76.4 80.4 61.1 2.6
KYLE CONNOR L 82 59.1 998 0.907 9.1 48.39 68.9 55 63 41.3 2.5
NIKOLAJ EHLERS L 62 57.7 1003 0.925 7.8 52.38 26.7 78.7 76.3 77.8 2.3
PATRIK LAINE R 82 57.5 999 0.912 8.7 45.02 69.4 52.1 54 50 2.1
MASON APPLETON C 36 53.9 1066 0.945 12.1 48.58 0.8 58.8 58.8 0 2
JACK ROSLOVIC C 77 59.4 1004 0.923 8.1 49.13 11.8 68.6 63 87.5 1.9
BRYAN LITTLE C 82 52.3 994 0.915 7.9 46.53 28 62.1 66.7 43.8 1.9
DUSTIN BYFUGLIEN D 42 54.3 1000 0.93 7 53.1 63.4 50.8 39.5 72.7 1.8

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents
(as of August 1)
Derick Brassard – At 31 years of age (32 in September), it looks as though Brassard‟s run as a fantasy
asset is over. Three different teams tried him out last season to no avail. Not only was he unable to get
going offensively but he was a huge liability. Undraftable and likely looking at a camp invite with no
contract. Update: Signed with NY Islanders
Jake Gardiner – Back injury is a question mark for NHL GMs and should be one for fantasy GMs as well.
Wherever he lands, cautiously expect 70 games at slightly below his usual production rate. Update:
Signed with Carolina (4x$4)
Patrick Maroon – Seems to be waiting for St. Louis to get their cap and roster situation sorted before
deciding on a contract. Expect similar production to last year. Update: Signed with Tampa Bay
Valeri Nichushkin – The Stars were so disappointed in the 24-year-old‟s play and his zero goals that
they bought out his contract. Not a great return to North America. A big risk to sign in the KHL.
Update: Signed with Colorado
Kevin Shattenkirk – We all know that Shattenkirk is not an $8 million player anymore (if he ever was).
But he has offensive talent as a second PP option and No.5 defenseman and is probably worth $2.5
million somewhere. Update: Signed with Tampa Bay for $1.5
Joe Thornton – Thornton will sign in San Jose just as soon as they figure out how much they can pay
him. He is already discussed and projected in the San Jose team section. Update: He did.
Justin Williams – Like Thornton, Williams almost certainly will be playing with last year‟s team
(Carolina). He‟ll be 38 in October, but he‟s still a safe 45-point player with upside to exceed 50.
Update: Has taken a break from hockey for a couple of months, leaning towards retirement.
Other Notables…
- Gabriel Bourque (WPG) - Marc Methot

- Brian Boyle - Joe Morrow
- Troy Brouwer (PTO – FLA - released) - Stefan Noesen (PTO - DAL - released)
- Fredrik Claesson (Signed - CAR) - Magnus Paajarvi
- Dan Girardi (Retired) - Dion Phaneuf
- Ben Hutton (Signed - LAK) - Jason Pominville
- Dmitrij Jaskin (Europe) - Tobias Rieder (PTO - CGY)
- Chad Johnson, G - Zac Rinaldo (PTO - CGY)
- Niklas Kronwall (Retired) - Riley Sheahan (Signed - EDM)
- Oscar Lindberg (Europe) - Devante Smith-Pelly (PTO - CGY)
- Andrew MacDonald (PTO - CGY) - Drew Stafford (PTO – MIN - released)
- Patrick Marleau - Michael Stone (signed - CGY)
- Jamie McGinn - Cam Ward, G (Retired)
- Cody McLeod - Thomas Vanek

Notable Training Camp Invites
- Alex Petrovic, D, Boston – signed two-way deal
- Kevin Porter, C, Buffalo - released
- Andrew MacDonald, D, Calgary - released
- Alexandre Grenier, RW, Calgary - released
- Zac Rinaldo, LW, Calgary – signed two-way deal
- Tobias Rieder, LW, Calgary – signed two-way deal
- Devante Smith-Pelly, RW, Calgary - released
- Eric Gryba, D, Calgary - released
- Fredrik Claesson, D, Carolina – signed two-way deal
- Kris Versteeg, LW, Chicago – signed AHL deal
- Erik Condra, W, Colorado - released
- Stefan Noesen, RW, Dallas - released
- Scottie Upshall, LW, Dallas - released
- Troy Brouwer, RW, Florida - released
- Lance Bouma, LW, Los Angeles
- Drew Stafford, RW, Minnesota - released
- Luca Sbisa, D, NY Islanders
- Michael Haley, LW, NY Rangers – signed two-way deal
- Chris Stewart, RW, Philadelphia
- Michael Neuvirth, G, Toronto - released
- Matt Read, RW, Toronto – signed AHL deal
- Landon Ferraro, C, Vancouver - released
- Tye McGinn, LW, Vegas
- Matt Moulson, LW, Washington - released

DOBBER’S 2019-20 CALDER TROPHY PICKS
Once again, I‟m back with an ordered ranking of where I feel the Calder Trophy odds are heading into the 2019-20
campaign. Last year I – and everyone else – whiffed on Jordan Binnington. But two of my top three (Rasmus
Dahlin and Elias Pettersson) finished in the actual top three. So, there‟s that.
RK ROOKIE POS TEAM DOBBER SAYS…
1 Jack Hughes C NJD Tops on everyone‟s list, only an injury could derail his Calder Trophy bid.
2 Cale Makar D COL Elite defenseman already showed us in the playoffs that he can dominate.
3 Kaapo Kakko RW NYR If Kakko gets on the first line, he could give Hughes a run for his money.
4 Quinn Hughes D VAN Feeding Pettersson pucks all year on the PP could embarrass opponents.
5 Elvis Merzlikins G CBJ The best unproven goalie to be handed starting role since King Henrik.
6 M. Blackwood G NJD Schneider‟s questionable hip all that‟s standing between him and lots of starts.
7 Erik Brannstrom D OTT Two career NHL games and he‟s already Ottawa‟s second-best defenseman.
8 Martin Necas RW CAR Almost seized a spot last year. Could work his way up the lineup quickly.
9 Max Comtois LW ANA Very productive in 10 games on an Anaheim team that needs it badly.
10 Jason Robertson LW DAL If he makes the team it will be because he‟s scoring too much to be demoted.
11 Cody Glass C VGK Cap situation may force Vegas to give him legitimate shot and quality ice time.
12 Dante Fabbro D NSH Fabbro‟s arrival allowed the Preds to move Subban‟s contract.
13 Dominik Kubalik LW CHI Penciled in on second line, has more upside than last year‟s Kahun.
14 Vitali Kravtsov RW NYR Still raw and may need time, but upside is through the roof.
15 Jordan Kyrou RW STL Deep St. Louis lineup will make ice time tough to come by, but he‟s ready.
16 Thatcher Demko G VAN Top prospect goalie is ready, he just needs Markstrom to stumble.
17 Eric Comrie G WPG As with Demko, Comrie needs his starter (Hellebuyck) to stumble or get hurt.
18 Drake Batherson RW OTT Took to the pro game immediately and has virtually no competition as top RW.
19 Igor Shesterkin G NYR Elite prospect would be a Top 5 pick, but Georgiev and King Henrik in the way.
20 Morgan Frost C PHI High-upside. Has too many proven scorers to leapfrog, but you never know.
21 Filip Zadina RW DET Could use another half-year of AHL time. Thrives when his linemates have skill.
22 Barrett Hayton C ARI Very close to NHL-ready, but top six already spoken for.
23 Sam Steel C ANA Could start on third line, and has upside to climb ladder quickly.
24 Nick Suzuki C MON Elite-scoring junior player needs to make big splash in camp.
25 Alex Nedeljkovic G CAR Looking very good as a pro. Injuries to Mrazek and Reimer would open door.

RK ROOKIE POS TEAM DOBBER SAYS…
26 Joe Veleno C DET Longshot to make the team, but if he does it would be due to offense.
27 Kirby Dach C CHI As with Veleno, if Dach makes the team he becomes Calder contender.
28 Emil Bemstrom RW CBJ Does any team need top SHL goal scorer‟s offense more than Columbus?
29 Alex Barre-Boulet C TBL Took to the pro game immediately last year. He‟s small, but rising quickly.
30 Cal Petersen G LAK As with any G on this list, he needs help from an injury to the starter.
31 Eeli Tolvanen RW NSH Steep learning curve last year. If he finds his mojo, he‟s among the best.
32 Nikolai Prokhorkin LW LAK Don‟t sleep on this high-scoring KHLer in his prime. Kings need his goals.
33 Taro Hirose LW DET College star had assists in five straight games to start NHL career. ‟Nuff said.
34 Victor Olofsson LW BUF Huge North American debut last year. Rising quickly in value.
35 Ty Smith D NJD Acquisition of Subban hurts chances of making team, but very high upside.
36 Ilya Mikheyev LW TOR Leafs hurting for cap space and he is a cheap option who can score.
37 Gabriel Vilardi C LAK Injuries probably require time in the minors, but you never know.
38 Sasha Chmelevski C SJS High-scoring junior star was huge at the WJC, but longshot to make team.
39 Joel Persson D EDM Oilers sat on him for year, giving him time. Now they need his right shot.
40 Adam Fox D NYR Adding Trouba makes Fox more of a depth option this season.
41 Ryan Poehling LW MON Huge debut game probably has poolies overrating him a little bit.
42 Oliver Wahlstrom RW NYI Coach Trotz not known for rushing prospects, but Wahlstrom a big talent.
43 Alex Nylander RW CHI Several unproven, skilled wingers are signed and vying for the same spot.
44 Alexandre Texier LW CBJ So far looking like a two-way player at NHL level.
45 Adam Boqvist D CHI Would have been much higher, but team added Maatta, De Haan.
46 Jimmy Schuldt D VGK Should be third-best offensive blueline option for Vegas this year.
47 Kristian Vesalainen LW WPG Team is deep and he needs more seasoning, but he‟ll be a good one.
48 Alex Formenton LW OTT The Sens love this speedy winger‟s all-around game.
49 Owen Tippett RW FLA Panthers are now a deep team and Tippett will have to earn the ice time.
50 Victor Soderstrom D ARI Yotes love this guy. Chychrun got into lineup at 18. Was that a good idea?

2019 Preseason Scoring Leaders
(Updated 9/29)
Name P Tm GP G A P PPP SOG Name P Tm GP G A P PPP SOG

MAX PACIORETTY L VGK 3 4 5 9 2 16 JAYSON MEGNA C COL 4 3 1 4 0 12
A MATTHEWS C TOR 4 5 3 8 4 13 NICK BONINO C NSH 3 2 2 4 1 5
KLIM KOSTIN C STL 4 3 3 6 0 11 ADAM GAUDETTE C VAN 4 2 2 4 0 7
JUSTIN SCHULTZ D PIT 3 0 6 6 1 8 C BROWN R OTT 4 2 2 4 1 12
JADEN SCHWARTZ L STL 4 2 4 6 1 10 NICK SUZUKI C MTL 5 1 3 4 1 13
BRAYDEN SCHENN C STL 3 1 5 6 1 3 PHILLIP DANAULT C MTL 3 2 2 4 2 4
DAVID PASTRNAK R BOS 2 3 3 6 3 5 CHARLIE COYLE C BOS 3 1 3 4 0 5
BRADY TKACHUK L OTT 4 3 3 6 2 21 DAN RENOUF D COL 3 0 4 4 0 2
MATHEW BARZAL C NYI 4 1 5 6 1 12 SVEN BAERTSCHI L VAN 4 2 2 4 1 5
JORDAN EBERLE R NYI 4 4 1 5 1 14 TARO HIROSE L DET 6 1 3 4 3 7
ETHAN BEAR D EDM 4 2 3 5 2 5 EV DADONOV R FLA 3 1 2 3 1 8
NICO HISCHIER C N.J 5 1 4 5 1 9 ZACK KASSIAN R EDM 4 2 1 3 2 7
WILL BUTCHER D N.J 4 2 3 5 2 7 VALENTIN ZYKOV L VGK 5 2 1 3 1 8
C VERHAEGHE C T.B 6 2 3 5 2 10 BRANDON PIRRI C VGK 3 2 1 3 2 6
JAKUB VRANA L WSH 3 3 2 5 1 7 ALEX OVECHKIN L WSH 2 0 3 3 0 13
TOMAS JURCO R EDM 4 3 2 5 2 12 ALEX VOLKOV R T.B 5 2 1 3 1 4
JESPER BRATT L N.J 5 1 4 5 2 14 SAM GAGNER C EDM 4 1 2 3 1 8
JAKE DEBRUSK L BOS 3 4 1 5 2 15 BRETT CONNOLLY R FLA 4 2 1 3 1 3
SAMMY BLAIS L STL 4 1 4 5 0 7 KEVIN HAYES R PHI 4 1 2 3 0 8
OSCAR KLEFBOM D EDM 4 0 5 5 1 10 JASON ZUCKER L MIN 4 2 1 3 0 7
JACK HUGHES C N.J 4 3 1 4 2 9 BRENDAN GUHLE D ANA 4 1 2 3 2 8
LARS ELLER C WSH 2 2 2 4 0 6 DAVID BACKES R BOS 3 1 2 3 0 7
BRENT BURNS D S.J 2 0 4 4 0 5 ANTHONY CIRELLI C T.B 5 1 2 3 0 9
JAKUB VORACEK R PHI 4 1 3 4 2 7 NIKOLAJ EHLERS L WPG 3 2 1 3 0 13
JOHN TAVARES C TOR 3 3 1 4 2 16 V HINOSTROZA R ARI 4 2 1 3 0 6
BLAKE LIZOTTE C L.A 5 1 3 4 1 1 MORGAN RIELLY D TOR 4 0 3 3 2 10
W NYLANDER R TOR 4 1 3 4 1 15 ARTEMI PANARIN L NYR 2 3 0 3 1 7
CODY EAKIN C VGK 4 1 3 4 1 10 SAM BENNETT C CGY 4 2 1 3 0 9
CLAYTON KELLER R ARI 4 2 2 4 0 10 JAMES NEAL L EDM 4 1 2 3 1 7
MARK BOROWIECKI D OTT 3 0 4 4 0 3 ANDREW COPP C WPG 4 1 2 3 0 10
JAKE GUENTZEL L PIT 3 1 3 4 1 10 RYAN HARTMAN R MIN 4 1 2 3 0 8
C STEPHENSON C WSH 4 1 3 4 0 6 JOSEPH VELENO C DET 5 0 3 3 2 8
TREVOR MOORE L TOR 3 3 1 4 0 5 RADKO GUDAS D WSH 3 1 2 3 0 7
JOHN CARLSON D WSH 3 1 3 4 2 6 C MARODY C EDM 2 1 2 3 0 6
NIKITA GUSEV L N.J 5 2 2 4 0 9 A BARKOV C FLA 2 2 1 3 0 2
JOHN GAUDREAU L CGY 4 2 2 4 1 13 TOREY KRUG D BOS 2 0 3 3 2 3
A JOHNSSON L TOR 4 2 2 4 1 8 JEFF PETRY D MTL 3 1 2 3 2 10
TAYLOR HALL L N.J 2 2 2 4 2 7 J VAN RIEMSDYK L PHI 4 2 1 3 1 12
J SILFVERBERG R ANA 3 3 1 4 2 8 JAKOB LILJA L CBJ 4 2 1 3 0 6
LEON DRAISAITL C EDM 4 1 3 4 1 11 J GREENWAY L MIN 4 1 2 3 0 8
CHRIS DVORAK C ARI 5 1 3 4 0 4 MATT DUCHENE C NSH 3 1 2 3 1 11
MADISON BOWEY D DET 4 1 3 4 0 3 T.J. OSHIE R WSH 3 2 1 3 1 4
SAMI VATANEN D N.J 3 0 4 4 1 4 ALEX NYLANDER L CHI 4 1 2 3 0 6
CLAUDE GIROUX C PHI 3 0 4 4 2 6 ANDERS LEE L NYI 4 1 2 3 1 20
JACK EICHEL C BUF 2 0 4 4 2 2 MARK SCHEIFELE C WPG 3 0 3 3 1 7
BLAKE WHEELER R WPG 2 2 2 4 1 8 M ZUCCARELLO R MIN 3 1 2 3 0 2
MATTIAS EKHOLM D NSH 3 2 2 4 0 13 TOBIAS RIEDER R EDM 4 2 1 3 0 9
B GALLAGHER R MTL 3 3 1 4 0 17 DAVID PERRON L STL 2 2 1 3 0 8
SAM REINHART C BUF 3 2 2 4 1 7 ALIAKSEI PROTAS C WSH 2 1 2 3 1 4
BTW: you can get these anytime you want - free - at dobberhockey.com/frozenpool

Upcoming in This Fantasy Guide
(content added over the summer)
1. Updated rosters and predictions (of course!)
2. All the latest cuts…
3. Training Camp Invites – check for updates
4. 2019 Preseason Scoring Leaders
5. Projected Team-by-Team Goals For
6. Dobber‟s Predicted Final Standings

PROJECTED TEAM GOALS FOR
By Dobber
Last year in this space I projected a 2.2% increase in scoring. From 2017-18 to 2018-19 goals were up a
whopping 7.4% due to the addition of Vegas and, more importantly (in my books) – the tightening up of goalie
equipment. I felt that because further equipment rules were in place (chest protectors), then scoring will continue
to rise. Scoring ended up increasing by another 1.3%. The well has finally run dry in terms of goalie equipment
changes, and none of the other rule changes for the year ahead will promote scoring. Goaltenders and coaches will
adapt to what‟s there. I don‟t think this means a decline in scoring overnight, but the 1.3% growth will continue to
shrink and scoring might even be flat for 2019-20.
Below, I have the second-biggest drop coming from the Sharks. Losing Joe Pavelski (and to a much lesser extent
Gustav Nyquist). That‟s a lot of nonreplaced goals. I also have drops from Tampa Bay (sure they only lost JT
Miller, but the real reason is that they were insane last year – tough to repeat). Biggest jumps in the season
ahead will go to New Jersey (even ignoring additions of Jack Hughes, PK Subban and Nikita Gusev – they get
Taylor Hall back), Dallas and the Rangers.
The honors for lowest-scoring team in the 2019-20 NHL season as well as the team with the biggest drop in goals
scored will be the Ottawa Senators. This team does not have Mark Stone nor Matt Duchene anymore. Nor will they
have a 60-point player. Mark it!
PROJ. TEAM GF GF (LY) LY INC/DEC PROJ. TEAM GF GF (LY) LY INC/DEC

RK (PROJ.) RK RK (PROJ.) RK
1 TBL 299 325 1 -26 17 VGK 250 249 14 1
2 TOR 285 286 4 -1 18 PHI 249 244 17 5
3 CGY 274 289 2 -15 19 NSH 248 240 19 8
4 PIT 271 273 6 -2 20 VAN 244 225 25 19
5 WPG 266 272 7 -6 21 DAL 242 210 29 32
6 FLA 265 267 9 -2 22 BUF 240 226 24 14
7 NJD 262 222 26 40 23 MTL 237 249 13 -12
8 STL 259 247 15 12 24 ARI 233 213 27 20
9 WAS 259 278 5 -19 25 CBJ 232 258 12 -26
10 BOS 256 259 11 -3 26 NYI 231 228 21 3
11 CAR 255 245 16 10 27 LAK 222 202 30 20
12 NYR 253 227 22 26 28 DET 221 227 23 -6
13 SJS 253 289 3 -36 29 ANA 217 199 31 18
14 COL 252 260 10 -8 30 MIN 215 211 28 4
15 CHI 251 270 8 -19 31 OTT 203 242 18 -39
16 EDM 250 232 20 18

PREDICTED STANDINGS
By Dobber
There will be a shift in the coming season in that the Eastern Conference won‟t be quite as
dominant and the Western Conference bounces back a little. The Lightning‟s 128 points was ridiculously high and
they‟ll be in tough to come close. The balance of power really starts to shift here as New Jersey is the NHL‟s most
improved team and Buffalo continues creeping closer to playoff contention (not quite there yet – maybe a year
away). The Panthers always improve dramatically, enough to be taken seriously as a contender. The Rangers are a
team in rebuild and will come out of the gates slowly, but slowly come together for a stronger second half to set
up a promising 2020-21. The Flyers improve by seven points, but in the East the race is once again just too deep
and too tough.
In the West, the Flames continue to dominate and the Blues carry their Cup win to a 100-point season. The
Coyotes actually make the Golden Knights sweat a little, pushing it to the last day. The Canucks also stay in it
right to the end, while the Oilers finally have more regulation wins than losses – and with that roster that‟s
actually a positive. With the right in-season moves this team‟s goal is to get themselves on track to get Connor
McDavid into the playoffs in 2021. In the end, no new teams in the West get into the dance, while Florida gets in
for the East (with Columbus out).
Note: wins below may not add up to goaltending projections above due to trades and/or injuries.
EASTERN CONFERENCE WESTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic W L OTL Pts Playoffs Central W L OTL Pts Playoffs
Tampa Bay 56 19 7 119 x St. Louis 46 27 9 101 x
Boston 48 25 9 105 x Nashville 46 29 7 99 x
Toronto 46 27 9 101 x Winnipeg 46 30 6 98 x
Florida 45 28 9 99 x Dallas 44 31 7 95 x
Montreal 44 30 8 96 x Colorado 40 30 12 92 x
Buffalo 37 35 10 84 Chicago 38 34 10 86
Detroit 32 40 10 74 Minnesota 35 37 10 80
Ottawa 26 49 7 59
Metropolitan W L OTL Pts Pacific W L OTL Pts
Washington 46 28 8 100 x Calgary 49 26 7 105 x
Carolina 45 29 8 98 x San Jose 45 28 9 99 x
NY Islanders 43 31 8 94 x Vegas 42 33 7 91 x
New Jersey 42 30 10 94 Arizona 41 33 8 90
Pittsburgh 41 31 10 92 Vancouver 39 33 10 88
Philadelphia 40 33 9 89 Edmonton 38 35 9 85
Columbus 38 36 8 84 Anaheim 29 41 12 70
New York 34 38 10 78 Los Angeles 30 43 9 69
Stanley Cup Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning over Calgary Flames
Norris Trophy Pick: Morgan Rielly
Hart Trophy Pick: Connor McDavid

ADDED / CHANGES
(since September 20, 2019)
Note: All training camp cuts are noted in the prospects chart for each team. I won’t be noting them here, as there
will be too many.
- Domingue note, adj (TBL)

- adj Veronneau, Formenton (OTT)
- adj Pouliot (STL)
- adj Sparks, Subban (VGK)
- Bear/Jones adj (EDM)
- adj Jaros/Lajoie (OTT)
- adjusted Garland (ARI)
- adj Gibbons (CAR)
- adj Frk (LAK)
- Point inj note, adj (TBL)
- Yelesin, Kylington adj (CGY)
- Neuvirth removed, Kaskisuo added (TOR)
- Faulk trade (STL and CAR) adjustments
- adjusted Tkachuk back to where he was (CGY)
- added Volkov to prospect chart (TBL)
- Dubinsky inj note, adj (CBJ)
- Persson inj note, adj (EDM)
- Patrick inj note, adj (PHI)
- Boeser inj note, no adjustment! (VAN)
- Maenalanen adj (CAR)
- Twarynski added to prospect and main chart, Aube-Kubel adj (PHI)
- adj Hakanpaa (ANA)
- Did you notice all prizes for the free game, the page before this one? Visit www.dobbernomics.com
- Dzingel inj note, adj (CAR)
- Balcers inj note, adj (OTT)
- Patrick inj note edit (PHI)
- Laine adj back to original projection (WPG)
- Sturm adj (MIN)
- Bastian adj (NJD)
- Prokhorkin note, adj (LAK)
- Forbort inj note, adj (LAK)
- Bjornfot added to prospect chart (LAK)
- Fleury added to charts (MTL)
- six MTL players adjusted (MTL)
- Kyrou inj note, adj (STL)
- Sandin, Timashov proj added (TOR)
- Korshkov added to prospect chart (TOR)
- adj several OTT players (OTT)
- adj several FLA players (FLA)
- Tuch inj note, adj (VGK)
- Ho-Sang note, several NYI projections adj
- several NYR projections adj
- adj Mittelstadt, Olofsson, other BUF players
- adj Baertschi, who was actually waived (VAN)
- adj Goldobin, who was actually waived (VAN)
- DeSmith waived, he and Jarry adj (PIT)
- Comrie waived, he and Brossoit adj (WPG)
- Djoos waived, adj (WSH)
- Gagner waived, EDM players adj
- Forsling adj (CAR)
- adj lots of TOR projections, shuffled lines (TOR)
- added Liljegren, Holl to chart (TOR)
- Cehlarik adj (BOS)
- Santini adj (NSH)
- adj Carr, Salomaki (NSH)
- Sprong waived by ANA, could be claimed, check update tomorrow (ANA)
- Dahlstrom waived, adj (CHI)
- Dobson added to chart (NYI)
- Ville Heinola added to chart (WPG)
- Luoto adj (WPG)
- Comrie to ARI, Raanta adj
- Dahlstrom to WPG
- Rust inj note, adj (PIT)
- Pateryn inj note, he and Hunt adj (MIN)
- Sheahan inj note, adj (EDM)
- Kane suspension note (SJS)
- Sprong adj (ANA)
- Ho-Sang adj (NYI)
- adj Poehling, other MTL players
- adj Niku, other WPG players
- Beaulieu, Little inj notes, adj (WPG)
- Timmins/Rosen note, adj (COL)
- Lilja proj added, CBJ players adj (CBJ)
- Dube adj (CGY)
- Steel, Kase inj note, adj (ANA)
- Olofsson note (BUF)
- big Smith adj (NJD)
- Montour further adj (BUF)
- Schmidt inj note, adj (VGK)
- Larsson inj note, adj (EDM)

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Dobber’s 2019-20 Fantasy Hockey Guide

Home of the Top Fantasy Hockey Player Rankings

Welcome to the 14th annual DobberHockey Fantasy Guide!

LAST UPDATE: October 03, 2019

DobberHockey’s 2019-20 Fantasy Hockey Guide

Founder, Editor-in-Chief: Darryl Dobbs

Cover photos: USA Today Sports Images

Understanding the 2019-20 Schedule Colorado

www.dobberhockey.com Rule Your Pool! Page 3

www.dobberhockey.com Rule Your Pool! Page 4

 Some goalies who may be undervalued in good opportunities:

www.dobberhockey.com Rule Your Pool! Page 5

www.dobberhockey.com Rule Your Pool! Page 6

Off-days / Mondays & Wednesdays

OFF- M/W OFF- M/W

Adam Daly-Frey pens ‘Looking Ahead’ every Friday on DobberHockey.com

www.dobberhockey.com Rule Your Pool! Page 7

www.dobberhockey.com Rule Your Pool! Page 8

(in alphabetical order)

Pavel Buchnevich, W, Rangers

Anthony Cirelli, C, Lightning

Brett Connolly, RW, Panthers

Jordan Eberle, RW, Islanders

Aaron Ekblad, D, Panthers

Alex Galchenyuk, C/W, Penguins

www.dobberhockey.com Rule Your Pool! Page 9

Kevin Hayes, C, Flyers

Filip Hronek, D, Red Wings

Anthony Mantha, RW, Red Wings

Victor Mete, D, Canadiens

Nino Niederreiter, W, Hurricanes

William Nylander, RW, Maple Leafs

Gustav Nyquist, W, Blue Jackets

www.dobberhockey.com Rule Your Pool! Page 10

Cory Schneider, G, Devils

Wayne Simmonds, RW, Devils

Brady Tkachuk, LW, Senators

Jimmy Vesey, W, Sabres

Jakub Vrana, LW, Capitals

Brennan DeSouza pens the ‘Eastern Edge’ every Tuesday on DobberHockey.com

www.dobberhockey.com Rule Your Pool! Page 11

(in alphabetical order)

Jamie Benn, LW, Stars

Jeff Carter, C, Kings

J.T. Compher, C, Avalanche

Joonas Donskoi, RW, Avalanche

Mikael Granlund, C, Predators

Jordan Greenway, LW, Wild

Roope Hintz, LW, Stars

www.dobberhockey.com Rule Your Pool! Page 12

Ondrej Kase, RW, Ducks

Clayton Keller, C, Coyotes

Kevin Labanc, RW, Sharks

Cale Makar, D, Avalanche

J.T. Miller, LW, Canucks

Max Pacioretty, LW, Golden Knights

Rickard Rakell, LW, Ducks

Jack Roslovic, C, Jets

Nick Schmaltz, C, Coyotes

www.dobberhockey.com Rule Your Pool! Page 13

Dylan Strome, C, Blackhawks

Cam Talbot, G, Flames

Robert Thomas, C, Blues