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EXAM 5
BASIC TECHNIQUES FOR RATEMAKING AND ESTIMATING CLAIM LIABILITIES
1
EXAM 5A – RATEMAKING
2
EXAM 5B – RESERVING
1. Overview (1-2)
Components of unpaid claim estimate (5) 14. Salvage & Subrogation
Development method
3. Understanding the data used Ratio method
Grouping & subdivision of data (4 considerations) Excess of loss and stop loss
Data aggregation (CY AY PY RY)
15. Evaluation of Technique
4. Meeting with Management
5. The Development Triangle 16. Estimation of ALAE Reserve
Development technique on reported/paid ALAE
6. Triangle as Diagnostic Tool Ratio method, additive or multiplicative
Look for trends in case O/S adequacy vs settlement
17. Estimation of ULAE Reserve
7. Development Technique Dollar-based techniques
Selection of experience period Classical
Selection of CDFs (5 considerations) Kittel adjustment
Tail factor selection (3 approaches) Conger & Nolibos – generalized Kittel
Mango Allen
8. Expected Claims Technique Count based techniques
Estimate initial ultimate losses Triangle based techniques
3
EXAM 5A – RATEMAKING
Combined Ratio
Underwriter’s manuals:
• Rules
• Rate pages Rating Manual
• Rating algorithm
• Underwriting guidelines UW Manual
Step 1 factor = 2011 Q4 Avg WP @ Current Rate Level / Cy 2011 Avg EP @ Current Rate Level
Step 2 factor = (1+2%) ^1.625
5. Limited Losses
• Comparability of historical losses.
• Apply limit adjustments where necessary
• Leverage effect on trends – inflation pressure may 1) falls solely on the portion above the limit or 2)
push losses to pierce through the limit, causing increased frequency in the upper layer
6. Development to ultimate (including audits)
7. Change in benefits or coverage – adjust in two-step trending 1 of 2
8. Treatment of extreme or cat losses
5
For any chosen method of aggregation,
• Earned Premium = written premium + Δ unearned premium reserve during this period
• Losses = paid losses + Δ loss reserve during this period
6
• All taxes & fees but NOT federal income tax
4. General Expenses - Countrywide
• Office overhead associated with insurance operation
Expenses in ratemaking:
1. All variable expense method
• Tends to under-charge risks with premium less than average; over-charge risks with premium
above average
• Insurer may combine this method with 1) premium discount 2) expense constant
2. Premium based projection
• Both fixed and variable expenses are expressed as ratio of premium
• Variable expense ratio with respect to EP or WP
• Potential distortions:
o Recent rate change – applying same ratio will over/under-state fixed expenses
o Distributional shifts – change in average premium
o Countrywide vs State/region – subjective allocation of expenses and could potentially
lead to inequitable rates between national and regional carriers.
o Allocate fixed VS variable proportion – subjective
3. Exposure/policy based projection method
• Variable expense treated as (2)
• Fixed expense is divided by historical exposure or policy count
• Some fixed expenses might vary, eg commission is different for new business vs renewal
7
Traditional Risk Classification – THREE approaches (+1 adapted)
1. Pure Premium Approach – Distributional bias of pure premium approach as it assumes uniform
distribution of exposures across all other variables. It ignores correlation between variables.
[𝐿+𝐸 ]
𝑅𝐼,𝑖 = [𝐿+𝐸 𝐿] 𝑖 , if all classes have the same expenses and profit provision
𝐿 𝐵
2. Loss Ratio Approach – requires on-level factors to trend premium
The LR method uses current premium to adjust for an uneven mix of business to the extent the
premium varies with risk, but only an approximation.
𝑅𝐼,𝑖 [𝐿+𝐸 ] /𝑃 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 𝑖
𝑅𝐶,𝑖
= [𝐿+𝐸 𝐿] 𝑖 /𝑃𝐶,𝑖 =
𝐿 𝐵 𝐵,𝑖 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 𝐵
3. Adjusted Pure Premium Approach
It multiplies exposures by the exposure-weighted average of all other rating variable’s relativities to
standardize the uneven mix of business, still only an approximation. Equivalent to LR method above.
4. Iterative minimum balance – see Multivariate chapter
Given detailed exposure by variables (t 1 , t 2 )x(g 1 , g 2 ) as well as Earned Premium. Solve four equations
with four unknows, eg with respect to t 1 :EP(t 1 ) = $100 x Exposure(t 1 , g 1 ) x t 1 g 1 + $100 x Exposure(t 1 ,
g2) x t1 g2
Substitute (t 1 , t 2 ) into original equation to get (g 1 , g 2 ); then substitute (g 1 , g 2 ) to get (t 1 , t 2 ); iterate.
Eventually converge to GLM model.
“Skimming the cream” – an insurer notices a positive characteristic that is not being used in their rating variable
or that of competitors. The insurer can market to the good risks and try to write more of them. This should lead
to lower loss rate and better profitability. Competitors may experience adverse selection if they do not adapt.
Benefits of multivariate
• Consideration of all rating variables simultaneously and adjusts for correlations between variables
• Raw data contains systemic effects and noise. Multivariate model seeks to remove noise and capture
signal
• Produces model diagnostics (certainty of results, goodness of fit)
• Allow interaction between two or more rating variables.
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Multivariate Classification – GLM diagnostics
1. Standard Errors : 2 SD 95% confidence, to gauge whether a variable has a systematic
effect…
“Standard Errors are an indicator of the speed with which the log likelihood falls from the
maximum given a change in parameters”…
2. Devian Tests: eg Chi-sq or F tests, indicates how much fitted values differ from observation
often used when company nested models – trade-off between gain in accuracy and loss of
parsimony
3. Consistency over time
4. Back testing
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total claims in layer $
• Iterative process for higher limits. Calculate LAS(L i to L i+1 ) = . This is a conditional
eligible (>Li)claim counts #
LAS, based policies with observed losses >L i only.
• Calculate breach probability P(X> L i ) based on claim counts
• LAS(L i+1 ) = LAS(L i ) + LAS(L i to L i+1 )* P(X> L i ), now unconditional
• When calculating LAS(L i to L i+1 ), only use data with limit> L i ; therefore when calculating P(X> L i ), only
use pol counts with limit> L i . Ignore small limit policies
• Careful whether data is ground-up or in layer only
• Instead of LAS method, could use Generalized Linear Model (GLM). GLM takes into account both the
limiting of losses and behavioral differences of insureds. This can sometimes lead to counter-intuitive
results (eg lower ILF for higher limits). GLM handles higher layers with thinner data better than LAS
method.
Complement of credibility
2. First dollar ratemaking – SIX methods using alternative data source and exposure group
Larger Larger Rate Change Trended
Group Group of a Larger Harwayne Present
Inclusive Related Group Method Rates Competitor
Accurate Depends on
ν
Different
Unbiased unless
UW
excluded
Independent ? ?
Data
?
availability
Easy to
compute
Logical
?
relationship
Harwayne Method
1. Objective: Calculate complement to state A Class 1. Adjust for distributional difference
2. Calculate ���
𝐿𝐴 average premium of state A,
3. Assuming the same class distribution, calculate 𝐿�𝚤 the hypothetical average losses for state i
����
𝐿𝐴
4. Calculate adjustment factor for each state = 𝐿�𝚤
5. Apply the factors to loss costs in state i and get adjusted los cost
6. Based on adjusted loss cost and exposure, calculate average class 1 pure premium
Trended Method
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐
Complement = 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 × × 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐
11
𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐴+𝐿 −𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐴
���
ILF Method C = 𝐿 𝐴× 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐴
𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐴+𝐿 −𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐴
Lower Limit ���
Method C = 𝐿 𝑑× 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝑑
𝐼𝐼𝐼min(𝑑,𝐴+𝐿) −𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐴
Higher Limit Method C =𝐿𝐿 × ∑𝑑>𝐴 𝑃𝑑 × 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝑑
Non-pricing solutions
• Reduce expenses
• Reduce average loss cost
12
o Change portfolio mix (through targeted marketing etc.)
o Reduce coverage provided
o Institute better loss control procedures
a. Experience rating
Note that “basic limit” is applied on indemnity only; Maximum Single Loss (MSL) is applied on
basic limit indemnity & ALAE combined.
Experience component, estimated based on expected loss rate (manual) and exposure.
Expected component, insured’s actual loss experience with adjustments
𝐴𝐴𝐴−𝐸𝐸𝐸 𝐴𝐴𝐴
𝐶𝐶 = × 𝑍 , equivalently (1 + 𝐶𝐶) = (1 − 𝑍) × 1 + 𝑍 ×
𝐸𝐸𝐸 𝐸𝐸𝐸
𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙 (𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜)+𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙 (𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 & 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟,𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑)
AER =
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙 (𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 & 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟,𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑)
Company Subject BL Losses & ALAE = Manual Prem * ELR * PAF 1 * PAF 2 * Detrend Factors,
• PAF 1 adjusts current company BL losses to an occurrence level…?? All10 1b p254
• PAF 2 adjusts for the experience period being CM, reflecting the CM year…??
Unreported Losses = Company Subject Losses *Detrend factor * EER * % Unreported.
Remember EER!
EER is the complement of an expected deviation of the company’s loss costs in the experience
rating plan from the loss costs underlying the manual rate.
“Ballast value (B) is the factor of experience rating formula that prevents the x-mod from
shifting too high or too low.” In practice, B is looked up in a table and it increases with expected
losses…
ALR/ELR are loss ratios. Numerators are same as AER/EER; denominator is subject premium.
ELR may be calculated as (ground-up LR * D-ratio)
D-ratio is the loss elimination ratio at primary loss limit
c. Schedule rating
Credit/debits based on characteristics are ADDITIVE; (1-x%-y%-z%)
If both schedule rating and experience rating are adopted, make sure that credits are not
double counted.
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2. Single name rating – “loss rated risks”
Used when the insured meets size requirement and its experience receives full credibility (100%)
Insurance Insurance
=( - ) x LR x LCF
= LR x (LCF -1) Charges Savings
Standard premium = manual premium ×M, see experience rating
Retro Dev Premium is used to smooth out back & forth payments
Min/max retro premium =mim/max ratio * standard premium
LCF is to adjust for LAE already included elsewhere; while Basic Premium contains broader
expense + profit & contingency
Appendix D – WC Indication
• Industry loss cost + payroll adjustment + experience adjustment = projected loss cost
• Industry loss cost needs to consider: benefit level change & wage inflation
• Medical benefit component is partially subject to schedule
• Overall indication = (indemnity LR + medical LR) x (1 +ALAE ratio +ULAE ratio)
1−𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
• For company proposed deviation =
1−% 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 & 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
• company change = × (1 + 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑) − 1
𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
15
1−𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝐿𝐿 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
• if no change in profit margin, = × (1 + 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑) − 1
1−𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝐿𝐿 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
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EXAM 5B – UNPAID CLAIM ESTIMATION
Unpaid Claim Estimate – estimate of future obligation resulting from claims due to past events.
1. case outstanding on known claims
2. future development on known claims
3. re-opened claims Broad IBNR
4. IBNR (including pure IBNR and IBNER)
5. claims in transit
Separate into components to test case O/S adequacy over time.
Aggregation of Claims
Aggregation Advantages Disadvantages
CY – All transactions • No future development after CY cut • Not suited for loss dev purpose
in period off • very few techniques based on CY
• Data readily available • Mismatch between premium & losses
AY – All accidents in • Industry standard • Subject to change at subsequent valuations
period • easy and intuitive • potential mismatch between exposure and claims
• reliable – AY is shorter PY • subject to distortion due to change in policy design
• AY claims valuable for tracking or underwriting
changes due to major events
PY – All policies • Valuable for tracking underwriting • Extended time to gather data, hence less reliable
written in period or pricing changes • difficult to isolate event impact
• particularly useful for self-insurers
RY – All losses • Particularly useful for claims made • Only works with known claims
reported in the period • no future development past YE • no IBNR by construction
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Common combinations:
• CY exposure (earned prem ≈≈ AY claims
• PY exposure – PY claims (EXACT match)
• for self-insurers, CY exposure – AY claims (EXACT match)
Before developing estimates of unpaid claims, the actuary needs to understand the following
• classes of business written
• geographic reach of underwriting activities
• reinsurance arrangements (attachment point, limit)
• claims management (processing time, lags, staffing changes)
• legal and social circumstances
• economic environment (rates & inflation)
Diagnostic Triangles
Reserve Adequacy Settlement Pattern
Paid / Reported Claims $$ Y Y
Closed / Reported Counts # Y
Paid Claims / EP Y
Reported Claims / EP Y
Average claims / Case O/S Y Y
“Actuarially Sound” – An actuarially sound loss reserve, for a defined group of claims as of a given valuation
date, is a provision, based on reasonable assumptions and appropriate actuarial methods, for the unpaid
amount required to settle all claims, reported or not, for which liability exists on a particular accounting date.
Typical procedure:
trend everything analyze and selectdetrend the selected
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******DEVELOPMENT TECHIQUE******
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******EXPECTED CLAIMS TECHNIQUE******
Assumption:
• A prior/initial assumption gives better estimate than claims experience.
• The prior can be based on more mature years or an industry benchmark. Prior loss ratio may also be
adjusted for regulatory or rate changes to the level of a particular AY (very complicated ah…)
22
******BORNHUETTER FERGUSON TECHNIQUE******
Benktander Method
• “Iterative BF Technique”, take ultimate claims from BF iteration 1 step 4 and use it as prior in iteration 2
step 1
• Benktander is considered a credibility weighted average of BF Technique
• Advantage: more responsive than BF, ye t more stable than Dev Technique
• Eventually converge to development method
If change in business mix, Benktander responds well to changing claim ratio but NOT responsive to changes in
the underlying development patterns.
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******CAPE COD TECHNIQUE******
24
******FREQUENCY-SEVERITY TECHNIQUE******
Over-arching assumptions:
• claim emergence
• claim settlement All occur & develop at
• payment growth an identifiable rate!!
• accuracy of individual case estimates
25
Frequency-Severity #3 – with Disposal Rate
X =
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Frequency Severity Technique Evaluation
• Advantages
1. When development methods can be unreliable for the less mature years, FS methods provide a
good alternative. Reported claim count is usually stable; severity is based on mature years.
2. Insight into claim process
3. Calculated based on paid claims not dependent on case O/S. Any changes in reserving strategy
will not distort FS method – more objective
4. FS allows inflation adjustment explicitly
• Disadvantages
1. highly sensitive to inflation assumption
2. requires more data than aggregate methods, which may not be available
3. data available may not be consistently defined or processed
4. FS may be distorted by change in business mix
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******CASE OUTSTANDING TECHNIQUE******
Assumption:
• IBNR is related to claims already reported in a consistent manner
• + all standard assumptions that apply to development technique
Comments
• Technique is most appropriate if most claims are reported during the first period, because claims for a
given AY is known at the end of an AY.
• Commonly used for claims made policies and report year analysis
• limitations:
◦ assumption on relation between IBNR & paid claims its use
◦ lack of benchmark
◦ lack of intuition
◦ challenge in selecting an ultimate ratio for case O/S
Self-insurers' case O/S Technique – given industry CDFs and case O/S only, find IBNR
• assumption:
◦ insurer's historical claims are not available
◦ but benchmark development patterns are available
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝐶𝐶𝐶 ×𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐶𝐶𝐶− 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐶𝐶𝐶
• 𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 = 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑂/𝑆 × memorize, but can be derived
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝐶𝐶𝐶−𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐶𝐶𝐶
• Limitations:
28
◦ Benchmark may be inaccurate for the specific risks
◦ Not suited to less mature years due to volatility
◦ Large claims can distort results
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******BERQUIST-SHERMAN TECHNIQUE******
Berquist-Sherman Techniques
1. Data selection, rearrangement
2. Data adjustment
Situation Solution
1 Change in #claim definition SUBSTITUTE: use earned exposure
2 Change in policy limits or deductibles SUBSTITUTE: PY data instead of AY
3 Change in how claims are reported SUBSTITUTE: RY data instead of AY
4 Significant growth in exposure SUB-DIVIDE: consider quarterly/monthly
5 Change in business mix SUB-DIVIDE: make homogeneous groups
6 Change in claim processing SUB-DIVIDE: separate by size of claim
Reported
Losses
Reported
Claims #
• DIAGNOSIS
Amounts $$
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◦ Detrend from diagonal entries to complete the average case O/S triangle
◦ adjusted reported claims = adj average case O/S * #claim + unadjusted paid claims
◦ Calculate CDF based on adjusted paid/reported claims. Apply CDF on original unadjusted
reported/paid losses.
• CAUTION
◦ rate selection very judgmental
◦ reserve estimate very sensitive to selected adjustment
• Assumption – higher % of closed claim accounts imply higher % of ultimate claims paid
• DIAGNOSIS
◦ compute triangle of closed-to-reported claims counts
◦ Look for trend down AY. If trend exists, paid claims data violates the assumption of most techniques
and therefore is not fit for reserving analysis
• ADJUSTMENT – adjust closed claims # and paid claims $$
◦ apply standard development technique on reported claims to project ultimate #claim
𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 #
◦ Calculate 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 = for the diagonal entries. Use these as
𝐴𝐴 𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 #
selected disposal rate for each maturity
◦ For non-diagonal entries, calculate adjusted closed #claim = ultimate * disposal rate.
◦ Fit a function to (closed #, paid $$) and interpolate to find (adjusted closed #, adjusted paid $$).
Typically pairwise linear in exam.
◦ Apply standard adjustment techniques on the adjusted triangles
• CAUTION
◦ BS technique does not recognize that change to settlement could be related to claim size
◦ Thorne demonstrated an example of faster settlement of
Amounts $$
Maturity
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Berquist-Sherman #3 – BOTH changes in case O/S and settlement rates
Ultimate
Claim #
Reported
Adj Closed Adj Paid
& Closed
Claims ## Claims $$
Claims #
Disposal Rates
Adj CDFs
Reported &
Paid Losses $$
Regress unadjusted paid $$ (y) on unadjusted
closed #. Interpolate to get adj paid $$
Salvage & Subrogation – Similar to ALAE, but doesn’t need to consider CNP
1. simple chain ladder on reported or paid recoveries
2. Ratio method
◦ Compute ratio triangle of (received S&S)/(paid claims)
◦ Apply chain ladder on the ratios. Obtain ultimate selected ratio
◦ Separately estimate ultimate claims gross of S&S
◦ Ultimate S&S for each AY = (ult claims gross of S&S) x (selected S&S ratio)
◦ Advantage: factors are less leveraged
1. Classical technique
• Assumptions:
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈 𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈 𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈
▪ Ratio is stable and same as
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶
▪ Future ULAE cost is proportional to IBNR (not yet reported claims) and Case O/S (not yet closed
claims)
▪ Assume that ½ of ULAE is sustained when opening a claim and the other ½ at closing a claim
• Mechanics
𝐶𝐶 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈
1. Calculate historical ratio of
𝐶𝐶 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐
2. Review and select a ratio
3. Apply 100% of this ratio to pure IBNR; apply 50% to (total reserve – pure IBNR)
Selected
ULAE Pure Case Total Pure
Reserve = ULAE x 100% x IBNR + 50% x O/S + IBNR + IBNR
Ratio %
• Comments
▪ Paying a claim is not the same as closing a claim
▪ This approach does not consider 1) claims closed & reopened in the same CY 2) claims opened
and remained open in same CY
▪ Challenge that Pure IBNR needs to be estimated
▪ Best suited to short tail coverages (Johnson)
▪ Subject to distortion by changing business volume due to the time lag in paid ULAE and paid
claims (Rahardjo)
▪ Subject to distortion by inflation
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2. Kittel’s Refinement
• Assumptions
▪ ULAE is sustained as claims are reported even if no claim payments are made
▪ ULAE payments for a specific CY are related to both the reporting and the payment of claims
▪ If come across IBNR in exam, consider it IBNER
• Mechanics
▪ 𝐶𝐶 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼 = 𝐶𝐶 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 + ∆ 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑂𝑂 + ∆𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼
𝐶𝐶 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈
▪ Estimate historical ratio of 1
(𝐶𝐶 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐+𝐶𝐶 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐)
2
5. Mango Allen…
34