Phase 8 - Present the results of the problems proposed in the final project

Jesus David Paez castro

CC.1045667865

GRUPO: 212066_24

TUTOR:
Paola Andrea Carvajal
TEORIA DE LAS DECISIONES

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA

PROGRAMA: INGENÍERIA INDUSTRIAL
CEAD: BARRANQUILLA
MAYO/2019
 INTRODUCTION
In the development of this activity, the first thing we had to do was to give an analytical
reading to the activities guide and the contents of unit , to learn and understand the concepts
of the different algorithms that allow or help decision making. After carrying out these
readings, we started the development and solution of the different problems that arise in the
activity guide.
These solutions were also possible because of prior knowledge about statistics and
probability and statistical inference. These are fundamental in the development of the
course of decision theory.
This activity, besides being done to meet the academic requirements, is an important part of
the professional development of the industrial engineer and I consider that in general of any
profession, because this gives us the basis to carry out a good selection in the different
options that we can to have some situation in general and to be able to make the most
convenient decisions for the company that we work with or in the best case for our own
company.
Problem 1. Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and Savage criteria (Profit Matrix):

In the company ABC several alternatives are presented to choose the best technology of four possible, whose perform
adaptation of the workers who will manipulate the equipments that comprise it. The expected benefits of each altern
adaptation of the workers are given in the table, in millions of pesos ($). For Hurwicz please assume an alpha of 0,6.

  Event
Fits
Does not Fits
Alternative successfull Fits well
fit acceptably
y
Technology
780 810 818 860
1
Technology
880 820 855 820
2
Technology
830 875 878 900
3
Technology
630 872 812 910
4

CRITERIA OF LAPLACE:

Resultado
1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4
p(j) s
  Event  
Fits
Does not Fits
Alternative successfull Fits well
fit acceptably
y  
Technology 1 780 810 818 860 817
Technology 2 880 820 855 820 843,75
Technology 3 830 875 878 900 870,75
Technology 4 630 872 812 910 806

CRITERIA WALD OR PESSIMISTIC:

  Event        
Fits
Does not Fits Resultado
Alternative successfull Fits well
fit acceptably s
y
Technology 1 780 810 818 860 780
Technology 2 880 820 855 820 820
Technology 3 830 875 878 900 830
Technology 4 630 872 812 910 630

CRITERIA OPTIMISTIC:

  Event        
Fits
Does not Fits Resultado
Alternative successfull Fits well
fit acceptably s
y
Technology 1 780 810 818 860 860
Technology 2 880 820 855 820 880
Technology 3 830 875 878 900 900
Technology 4 630 872 812 910 910

CRITERIA HURWICZ:

α= 0,7
  Event        
Fits
Does not Fits Resultado
Alternative successfull Fits well
fit acceptably s
y
Technology 1 780 810 818 860 836
Technology 2 880 820 855 820 862
Technology 3 830 875 878 900 879
Technology 4 630 872 812 910 826
 CRITERIA SAVAGE:

  Event
Fits
Does not Fits
Alternative successfull Fits well
fit acceptably
y
Technology 1 780 810 818 860
Technology 2 880 820 855 820
Technology 3 830 875 878 900
Technology 4 630 872 812 910

COST MATRIX:
  Event  
Fits
Does not Fits Resultado
Alternative successfull Fits well
fit acceptably s
y
(880-780) (875-810) (878-818) (910-860)
Technology 1 100
100 65 60 50
(880-880) (875-820) (878-855) (910-820)
Technology 2 90
0 55 23 90
(880-830) (875-875) (878-878) (910-900)
Technology 3 50
50 0 0 10
(880-630) (875-872) (878-812) (910-910)
Technology 4 250
250 3 66 0
 Table 2. Decision process for the commercialization of the product

Decision alternative States of nature

Demand low-utility Demand low average - utility

Demand High Medium - utility Demand High - utility

Manufacture 124 146 165 182

Subcontract 121 142 167 180

Buy 122 148 169 188

Lease 116 150 161 180

Leasing 119 148 167 183

Probabilities 0,32 0,28 0,15 0,25

a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate
of the demand.

PROBLEM 2 - DECISION TREE PROBABILITY

DEMAND TOTAL SUMMARY

Demand low-utility (0,32)

124 39,7

"Demand low average -

utility (0,28) " 146 40,88
MANUFACTURE

NODE 2 150,8

"Demand High Medium -

utility (0,15)" 165 24,75
 Demand High - utility (0,25) 182 45,5

Demand low-utility (0,32)

121 38,72 Table

2. Decision process for the commercialization of the product

Decision alternative States of nature

"Demand low average -
utility (0,28) " 142 39,76 Demand low-
utility Demand low average - utility Demand High Medium - utility
Demand High - utility
SUBCONTRACT

NODE 3 148,53
Manufacture 39,7 40,88 24,75 45,5
"Demand High Medium -
utility (0,15)" 167 25,05 Subcontract 38,72
39,76 25,05 45
Buy
39,04 41,44 25,35 47
Lease
37,12 42 24,15 45
Demand High - utility (0,25) 180 45
Outsource 38,08 41,44 25,05 45,75

Probabilities Ʃ = 1 0,32 0,28 0,15 0,25

Demand low-utility (0,32)

122 39,04

"Demand low average -

utility (0,28) " 148 41,44 153,5
NODE 1 BUY

NODE 4 152,83

"Demand High Medium -

utility (0,15)" 169 25,35
 Demand High - utility (0,25) 188 47

Demand low-utility (0,32)

116 37,1

"Demand low average -

utility (0,28) " 150 42
LEASE

NODE 5 148,27

"Demand High Medium -

utility (0,15)" 161 24,15

Demand High - utility (0,25) 180 45

Demand low-utility (0,32)

119 38,08

"Demand low average -

utility (0,28) " 148 41,44

LEASING NODE 6 150,32

"Demand High Medium -

utility (0,15)" 167 25,05

Demand High - utility (0,25) 183 45,75

 By expected value you get: VEsIP

NODE 2 150,81 millions

NODE 3 148,53 millions

NODE 4 152,83 millions

NODE 5 148,27 millions

NODE 6 150,32 millions

"Nodo 1 = (Max Node 2 Vs Node 3 Vs Node 4 Vs

Node 5 Vs Node 6) =" Node 4 = 152,83 millions

The recommended decision is to manufacture waiting for a payment of

152,830.000

VEIP = |VEcIP - VEsIP| VEsIP = 152,83

VEcIP = (0,32) 122 + (0,28) 148 + (0,15) 169 + (0,25) 188 =

VEcIP = 153,5
 VEIP = |153,5 - 152,83| = 0,64

b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a

favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:

THEORY OF BAYES

P(F/low) = 0,2 P(D/low) = 0,8

P(F/low average) = 0,36 P(D/ low average) = 0,64

P(F/high medium) = 0,33 P(D/ high medium) = 0,67

P(F/high) = 0,4 P(D/high) = 0,6

FAVORABLE

"State of
nature" "Odds
  previous" "Odds
conditional" "Odds
joint" "Odds
Subsequent"
P(F/low) 0,32 0,2 0,064 0,20

P(F/low average) 0,28 0,36 0,1008 0,32

P(F/high medium) 0,15 0,33 0,0495 0,16

P(F/high) 0,25 0,4 0,1 0,32

P(F) 0,31
 UNFAVORABLE

"State of
nature" "Odds
  previous" "Odds
conditional" "Odds
joint" "Odds
Subsequent"
P(F/low) 0,32 0,8 0,256 0,37

P(F/low average) 0,28 0,64 0,1792 0,26

P(F/high medium) 0,15 0,67 0,1005 0,15

P(F/high) 0,25 0,6 0,15 0,22

P(F) 0,69

Demand low-utility
(0,20)
124

"Demand low average -

utility (0,32) " 146
MANUFACTURE
156,16
NODE 4

"Demand High
Medium -
utility (0,16)" 165

Demand High - utility

(0,32) 182

Demand low-utility
(0,20)
121
 "Demand low average -
utility (0,32) " 142
SUBCONTRACT
162,45
NODE 5

"Demand High
Medium -
utility (0,16)" 167

Demand High - utility

(0,32) 180

Demand low-utility
(0,20)
122

FAVORABLE 0,31

NODE 2 BUY "Demand low average -

utility (0,32) " 148
NODE 6
167,44 167,44

"Demand High
Medium -
utility (0,16)" 169

Demand High - utility

(0,32) 188

Demand low-utility
(0,20)
116

"Demand low average -

utility (0,32) " 150
LEASE
160,88
NODE 7

"Demand High
Medium -
utility (0,16)" 161

Demand High - utility

(0,32) 180

Demand low-utility
(0,20)
119

"Demand low average -

utility (0,32) " 148
164,2

LEASING NODE 8

"Demand High
Medium -
utility (0,16)" 167

NODE 1

Demand High - utility

(0,32) 183

155,707673

Demand low-utility
(0,37)
124
 "Demand low average -
utility (0,26) " 146
MANUFACTURE
148,63
NODE 9

"Demand High
Medium -
utility (0,15)" 165

Demand High - utility

(0,22) 182

Demand low-utility
(0,37)
121

"Demand low average -

utility (0,26) " 142
SUBCONTRACT
146,34
NODE 10

"Demand High
Medium -
utility (0,15)" 167

Demand High - utility

(0,22) 180

Demand low-utility
(0,37)
122

UNFAVORABLE 0,69 NODE 3 BUY

"Demand low average -
utility (0,26) " 148
 NODE 11
150,33 150,33

"Demand High
Medium -
utility (0,15)" 169

Demand High - utility

(0,22) 188

Demand low-utility
(0,37)
116

"Demand low average -

utility (0,26) " 150
LEASE
145,67
NODE 12

"Demand High
Medium -
utility (0,15)" 161

Demand High - utility

(0,22) 180

Demand low-utility
(0,37)
119

"Demand low average -

utility (0,26) " 148

147,82
 LEASING NODE 13

"Demand High
Medium -
utility (0,15)" 167

Demand High - utility

(0,22) 183

c. What is the expected value of market research information?

VEcIM = 155,707673 VEIM = |VEcIM - VEsIM|

VEsIM = VEsIP = 152,83

VEIM = 2,88

d. What is the efficiency of the information?

E= VEIM X 100

VEIP

E= 2,88 X 100

0,64

E= 449,64
 EFICIENCIA : 450%

CONCLUDE

To conclude, every organization is a set of elements, especially

determined by the human resource, which allows interacting in front of a
organizational structure and that is legally regulated, to take
decisions is necessary to lean on different types of technical skills,
human and conceptual. The address is one of the dependencies that is most
aware of decision making, therefore it must be totally objective and logical
at the time of taking them, it is necessary to have clear goals and objectives, to carry
in a consistent manner to the selection of that alternative that maximizes the
company.
In addition it is important to rely on administrative functions such as planning
and control in the organization and perform as administrative processes
that support the achievement of objectives and maximum management; all this allows the
direction take the best decision.
The administrative process comprises the interrelated activities of.
Planning, organization, direction and control of all activities that
they involve human relationships and time.
 Bibliography
.
Ibe, O. (2013). Markov Processes for Stochastic Modeling: Massachusetts,USA:
University of Massachusetts Editorial. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=516132&lang=es&site=eds-live
.
Dynkin, E. (1982). Markov Processes and Related Problems of Analysis:Oxford, UK:
Mathematical Institute Editorial. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2048/login?
url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=e000xww&AN=552478&lang=es&site=ehost-live
.
Virtual Learning Object - Unit 3 - Markov decision processes:
.
This virtual learning object presents a series of digital resources for educational purposes,
we invite you to visit it to evaluate the information of unit 2 by developing the activities
contained therein.
.
Pineda, R. (2017). Virtual learning object Unit 3. Markov decision processes. [Video File].
Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10596/13271
.
Additional Educational resources - (complementary  Bibliography)

.
The following resources are complementary for the development of the activities of the
course, referring to the contents of Unit 3 - Markov decision processes.
.
Piunovskiy, A. (2012). Examples In Markov Decision Processes: Singapore: Imperial
College Press Optimization Series. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=545467&lang=es&site=eds-live