Logical thinking:

Solving problems in a
turbulent market
Learn-from-home (LFH)
month in April 2020

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WHY Learn-From-Home
month in April?
Alvin Leung

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 The level in approaching to problem
1. The person who is able to create new common (a new trend before anything happens).
2. The person who is able to standardize the solution of problem in order to let others apply
when crisis happens to them.
3. The person who is able to make own solution, execute and adjust flexibly when facing a
problem.
4. The person who is well aware that he/she is part of the reasons of a problem, when problem
happens around.
5. The person who can compare the current situation with the planned situation, also divide
and analyze the ‘fact’ from ‘comment, guess, sense’ .
6. The person who judges the phenomenon and result which is linked with a specific reason
only, then to blame or shame immediately.
7. The person who is not aware of a problem or who does not put any attention to anything.

What is yours? 4
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 1. When you find some water on the floor, you
wipe it.
2. When you find your staff is not able to meet
the deadline, try to offer support.
Handling 3. When you find client is complaining and ask
problem vs. for discount, you don’t respond to the
request immediately, but try to understand
Solving what is the reason client is not satisfied. And
try to have a thorough discussion with client
problem regarding the case.
4. When COVID-19 comes, try to make a shared
value project (e.g. LFH) to addressing the
social problem.

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Reactive vs. Proactive

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Ladder of Inference
Reflexive loop
Action Short circuits

Beliefs Original loop

Conclusions

Reflexive loop Assumptions

Short circuits Affixed meaning

Selected data & experience

Observation (reality, fact) & experience

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Example

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Exercise
• At the beginning of month, Sales Manager got the sales revenue report of last month. He
found out that the sales revenue of territory in-charged by Alan (the new coming Sales
Representative) was lower than the target. He believed that he took the wrong person
and believe that he is not up to the expected performance for fulfilling the job’s
requirement. Therefore, Sales Manager is intending to fire him.

• Probably, you might feel that there is logic jump… can you try
1. to use ladder of inference to illustrate how does Sales Manager conclude and made
decision on firing Alan?
2. to think of any possible and necessary information that you still need to gather?
3. to use another ladder of inference to try to find out another possibility?

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Sales Manager’s Ladder of Inference

Action “You are fired”

Beliefs Highest efficiency is the best

Conclusions I got one underperformer

Because of his lacking of experience, he is not able

Assumptions to manage the target achievement

Affixed meaning Unexpected, there would be something “wrong”

Selected data & experience Sales revenue report of last month, experience of Alan

Observation (reality, fact) & experience

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Possible and necessary
information needed

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Sales Manager’s Ladder of Inference

Action I will let XXX give you some help or I will help you.

Beliefs Highest efficiency or high effectiveness

Conclusions Alan needs my help

This sales could be suffered from bad result due to

Assumptions a lot of reasons

Affixed meaning Unexpected, it is not right

Sales revenue report of last month, experience of Alan

Selected data & experience and etc. mentioned

Observation (reality, fact) & experience

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Flow of problem-solving
in logical thinking
approach
Defining the problem

Cause Analysis

Solution Planning and Strategy Formation

Accomplishment of Plan (Execution)

Evaluation of result and process

Standard-ization

Learning by doing

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Everything is about
“information gathering”

• Without it, you can’t solve the problem. And if you are
just handling the problem, you are not only wasting
your time, but wasting your life.

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How to use the data?

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Using data to do root cause
analysis (step 2 in the flow)

• When you find you are not hitting company’s target, please think one specific problem
you are currently facing. (to be specific, when the enrolment of LFH is not as many as
expected and etc.)
• Let’s draw your logic tree (after demonstration, you would be having your own time for
exercising)

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Summary of logical framework
for cause analysis

1. We should prevent bias (subjective prejudice) by making multiple reasonable

hypothesis in MECE and causality.
2. We should validate our hypothesis via relevant information gathering

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 • Be specific (actionable items)

Solution • Be relevant to the purpose (but not just

following others)
• Be measurable in an agile way (especially in
the VUCA* world)

hints
(after knowing the root cause)
* volatile, uncertain, complex and
ambiguous
• Be reflective (i.e. it is okay to fail, but we
have to fail forwards)

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How to think future?
(what will happen next)
• When the COVID-19 be gone?
• Will there be any possible upcoming
outbreak?
• When I can do travel?
• When the business can be picked up?

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 SCQA
Situation
“I am blah blah blah…”
Start by telling yourself or your audience something they might already know. This helps
establishes relevance to form a common grounding.

Complication
“What if…”
What happened next? The Complication creates tension in the story you’re
telling. This triggers the Question you will ask. Typical complications: “what If something
stopping us performing the task”, “what if we don’t know the solution to the problem”

Question
“So what should we do?”
The Question arises logically from the Complication and leads into the Answer.
Typical questions: “what should we do?”, “how do we implement the solution?”, “is it the right
solution?” and “why didn’t the action work?”

Answer
“We need to…”
The Answer to the Question is the substance of your main point. Summarize it first,
completing your introduction – then break it down into details and write the main body of
your presentations.

Situation Complication Question Answer

• Story telling • What if • Then our • Give the

problem is solution

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 Situation (story telling)

COVID-19 specific
• What is our situation?
• What is happening horizontally, vertically or
chronologically

Economy specific
• What is and was happening in HK
• historical
• demographical (industrial)
• problematical (continuous basis)

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 Telling the
situation in
your
business (1)

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 Telling the
situation in
your
business (2)

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 • Let’s have a big shout out! (in business,
What can be in world, in your life, in your health, in
your finance, in your relationship and
happening? etc.)

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Risk • The fine line is between before and
management vs after it happens
Crisis • The key for both is all about not being
reactive but being proactive
management

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 • Importance in having a logical hypothesis and
riding on that, to gather relevant data
• Don’t handle but solve the problem
summary • Don’t be reactive but proactive in preparing both
risk and crisis management in any aspect
• Practice makes perfect!

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Thank you for
your comment

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