MODELOS DE PRONOSTICOS

𝐴_𝑡=𝛼∗𝐷_𝑡+(1−𝛼)∗(𝐴_(𝑡−1))
𝐴_𝑡=𝐴_(𝑡−1)+ 𝛼∗(𝐷_𝑡−𝐴_(𝑡−1))
Exponencial Simple
𝑦 ̂_(𝑡+1)=𝐴_𝑡

𝐴_𝑡=𝛼∗𝐷_𝑡+(1−𝛼)∗(𝐴_(𝑡−1)+𝑇_(𝑡−1))

Exponencial Doble Holt

𝑇_𝑡=𝛽∗(𝐴_𝑡−𝐴_(𝑡−1) )
+(1−𝛽)∗𝑇_(𝑡−1)
𝑦 ̂_(𝑡+1)=𝐴_𝑡+𝑇_𝑡

𝐴_𝑡=𝛼∗𝐷_𝑡/𝑆_(𝑡−𝑝) +(1−𝛼)∗(𝐴_(𝑡−1)+𝑇_(𝑡−1))
𝑆_𝑡=𝛾∗𝐷_𝑡/𝐴_𝑡 +(1−𝛾)∗𝑆

SUAV EXP TRIPLE (HOLT 𝑇_𝑡=𝛽∗(𝐴_𝑡−𝐴_(𝑡−1))+(1−𝛽)∗𝑇_(𝑡−1)𝑦 ̂_(𝑡+1)=(𝐴_𝑡+𝑇_𝑡)∗𝑆_(𝑡+1

WINTER)

CALCULO DE MAPE Y BIAS

=𝛾∗𝐷_𝑡/𝐴_𝑡 +(1−𝛾)∗𝑆_(𝑡−𝑝)

+1)=(𝐴_𝑡+𝑇_𝑡)∗𝑆_(𝑡+1−𝑝)