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    PVG Bao Cao Cap Nhat Tiem Nang Dai Han Tu Kinh Doanh CNG

    Uploaded by

    Trường Tùng Lý

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    BAOVIET & Securities Nganh Dau khi Ce Ay nog CTV) TOL Ta) THONG TIN CO PHAN ‘an lao ch HSx oosing od 52 un 7370- 16.120 Von néa 319 ng SLobphiéuuunén ——-27.719850¢P KLGD binh quin 10 gay 458.957 CP 86 has nse nga 400% Room nude ngos o% Ga cb tiled pin 700 dingicP Tyleeb ci gi 61% Beta 418 BIEN DONG GIA —r —Hoctnde ih. awl ll v yo om ost ot PVG “121% 49% t04% 9.4% HINindox 17.4% 63% -9,1% 172% Chuyén vién phan tich Nguyén Thu Ha (64 4) 3928 8080 ext 608 ‘nguyenthuhapt@baoviet.com vn Céng ty Cé phan Kinh doanh Khi hda long Mién Bac PVG.HN Ma giao dich: PVG Reuter Bloomberg: PVC Tiém nang dai han tiv kinh doanh CNG Tiém nding dai han tir kinh doanh CNG. Cudi nam 2013, PVG va PGD da ky hgp dng hyp tac kinh doanh phan phéi khi CNG tai Dw an Khi mé Ham Réng va mé Thai Binh 16 1028106, san Iveng khai thac én dinh khong 200 trigu ‘Smginam va cung cép lién tue trong 20 nam. Dy én nay c6 thé gip PVG cai thign kat qua hoat dng cling nhur kha nang sinh Ii trong trong lal. Hoat dong phan phéi LPG 4n dinh va cho bién igi nhudn thap: © Thi phan 1én tai khu vye mién Bac va mién Trung. Host dong phan ph6i LPG cla PVG trai dai tt céc tinh phia Bac cho t6i 88 Nang. Téng sén Iuong cla PVG nam 2013 dat 175.785 tin, chiém khodng 29% ‘t6ng nhu cau LPG tai min Bac va mién Trung. Dau vao phu thuée vao nguén nhap khau. Trude 2009, 75% ngubn LPG phuc vu hoat dong kinh doanh cla PVG duoc cung cAp tt trong nwée. Nam 2013, nguén sn xudt trong nude chi dap ting khodng 56% nhu cau kinh doanh ctia PVG va div bao tiép tye gidm trong nim 2014. Kha nang sinh ldi thap. Bién loi nhugn gdp va bién igi nhudn thudn clia PVG 6 mirc thap, chi dat lan lugt 6,7% va 0,7%. Trin vong 2014. Nam 2014, PVG dat ké hoach san lvgng LPG I 175.785 t4n, glam nhe so voi nam 2013, Gia ban LPG duge du bao sé giam knoang 1% so v6i nam 2013. Bin loi nhugn g6p du’ bao glém xuéng con 6% do PVG 6 phai sir dung ngudn LPG nhap khdu nhidu hon, Theo G6, doanh thu va LNTT dy bao dat 4.096 ty déng (+1%Y oY) va 35 ty dng (-3% YoY). Khuyén nghj. Tiém nang tang truéng cla PVG trong hai nam toi 2014 - 2015 1& khng cao do doanh thu tir mang kinh doanh LPG tang truéng cham va bién igi nhuan thap. Bién loi nhuan con cé kha nang gidm trong nam 2014 do PVG phai phy thugc nhiéu hon vao ngubn hang nhap khdu. Xét vé dai han, ké tir sau néim 2016, vige phan phdi khi CNG c6 thé giip PVG ting trudng mgnh vé Igi nhuan do bién Igi nhuan gp 46i v6i hoat dng kinh doanh CNG thuéng cao hon 2-3 lan so voi bién Igi nhuan gép hoat dong kinh doanh LPG. Hién tai, PVG dang duge giao dich & mic PE va PB lan luot [8 11,19 va 0,75 lan, Mae 4 ky vong cia PVG Ia 12.590 dénglcé phan. Mgt 36 chi tiéu tai chinh ca PVG. Gey 0 0 EEG Doanh thu (trigu dong) 2.764.314 3.998.494 4.314.777 4.074.541 4.095.565 EBITDA (vigu dng) e490 228.137 63583 79192 72.302 EBIT (trigu dng) 47.090 211.082 62.050 52.345 45.515 LUNST (triéu dng) 35.835 142.520 27.205 27.530 © 27.486 EPS (dang/cd phan) 1a stat wr esa me PIE (x) 8,59 216 11,31 11,18 11,19 PIB (x) 09s 073075 O75 OS ROA (%) ar 98 24 19-20 ROE (%) Wt 33,7 66 67 67 Bao cao lan dau CT am Remotes So luge vé cong ty ‘Cong ty Cé phan khi héa léng mi&n Bac duge thanh lap tir nam 2000 va niém yét tai sén giao dich ching khoan Ha NOi ngay 7/1/2009. Von diéu Ié tinh dén. 31/12/2013 ala PVG dat 277 ty ding, trong dé ty 18 sé’ hou Nha nurse (Téng cng ty khi Vigt Nam - GAS) lé 35,88%. Hoat dong phan phéi LPG Hoat dong phan phdi LPG hign 1a mang kinh doanh chinh cla PVG, déng 96 khong 95% téng doanh thu cla PVG. Mang kinh doanh nay bao gdm hoat d6ng phan phdi cac san phdm khi gas cho céc ho céng nghigp (binh 45 kg) vA phén phéi khi gas cho hé gia dinh (binh 12 kg), trong 46 doanh thu ban gas cho hd eng nghiép chiém khong 66% téng doanh thu kinh doanh LPG. Co cu doanh thu ciia PVG ‘Thi trong tigu thy cua PVG Ky quy ve binh gas. 1% Binh Phong 10% Thi phan [én va én dinh tai khu vyc mién Bac va mién Trung. Hoat dong phan phdi LPG ota PVG trai dai tir cdc tinh phia Bac cho 161 Ba Nang. Téng san wong cla PVG nam 2013 dat 175.785 tan, chim khong 29% tng nhu cau LPG tai mign Bac va mién Trung. Trong d6, nhiing thi truéng tiéu thy LPG 1én nhét cla PVG 18 Ha NOI (khoang 45%), Quang Nam - Da N&ng (15%), Nam Binh (12%), Hai Phong (10%), ‘Bau vao phy thude vao nguén nhap khau. Co’ cdu nguén cung cap LPG trong nuwc va nhap khau cia PVG 06 kha nhidu bién dong ké tty nam 2009 dén nay. True nam 2009, 75% nguén LPG phyc vw hoat dong kinh doanh cla PVG voc cung cp tir nguén san xuat trong nude tai Nna may xir ly khi Dinh Cé. ‘Sau 46, nguén sn xuat trong nuée chinh clla PVG Ia tir Nha may loc déu Dung Quét do ngudn tir nha may Dinh Cé ban theo hinh thire du gia va chi c6 cae khdch hang tai Tp. HOM m6i 6 kha ning mua durgs. Tuy nhién, ngudn hang tir Dung Quat khong &n dinh, thu@ng xuyén bj ct gidm san Iugng so wi ké 2 Bao cao lan dau CT am Remotes hoach. Nam 2013, ngudn san xudt LPG trong nu6c dap ting khoang 56% nhu cau kinh doanh cia PVG, 44% luong LPG cén Iai dugc nhap khdu tir £1 Corporation (Han Quéc), Sojitz Petroleum (Nhat Ban),.. Trong nam 2014, nha may loc dau Dung Quét dy kién sé tam dimg hoat déng trong théng 5-6 dé bao dung, do 46, ty trong hang nhgp khdu cla PVG sé tiép tye ting, dan t6i tang ‘chi phi dau vao va gidm bién loi nhugin, Nang lyc kho chira dy kién sé ting thém 25% ké tir cui 2015. Hign tai, PVG dang khai thdc 3 tng kho khi LPG v6i tng sire chira khozng 5.900 tn va tip tue tridn khal du én xy dung Téng kno san phdm dau khi Ba Nang voi 2 én chira LPG, m&i bin c6 dung tich 1.500 tén. Gial dogn 1 dy kién hoan thanh yao Quy 2/2015 vbi viee dira vo hoat déng 1 bin chira dung tich 1.500 tan. Dur ‘n nay cha yéu nhdm phyc vy thi trudng mi8n Trung, Ngoai ra, giai dogn 2 ota dy an Téng kho LPG mién Bac va Bac Trung B6 dy kién sé dugc khdi oéng nam 2018, dura téng céng suat kho chiza cla PVG lén 13.393 tan, gitlp PVG c6 thé quan ly t6t hon ké hoach nhap hang va chi phi du vao. So snh céng sudt kho chira cua mét s6 don vi phan phdi LPG en ee ASP MTG Pcc PGS PvG Céng suat cdc kho chira ela PVG TT Kho Coc 1 Téng kho LPG Hai Phong HaiPhong 1.108 ‘Bang st» dung 2 Téng kho LPG mién Bac Hai Phong 7.500 Giai doan 1 3.000 Bang sik dung Giai doan 2 4.500 Dy kién khdsi cong nim 2015 3 Téng kho LPG Bac Trung B6 HaTinh 3.285 Giai doan 1 1.785 Bang si? dung Giai doan 2 1.500 Dy kign khéi céng ném 2015 4 — Téng kho san pham dau khi Ba Nang DaNang 3.000 Giai doan 1 1.500 Dy kién dura vao sir dyng 02/2015 Giai doan 2 1.500 CT am Remotes Bao cao lan dau Hiéu qua kinh doanh ‘Tang treéng doanh thu giém dan trong 2 nam gan day. Trong giai doan 2009-2011, doanh thu ela PVG tang tnréng nhanh, binh quan 46%/ném, do sn luong va gid ban d&u tang tét (binh quan 30%iném va 11%inam). Tuy nhién, néim 2012 va 2013, sn lugng cia PVG lién tyc gidm do tinh hinh kinh t& suy thoai 43 &nh hudng dén nhu cau sén xudt cla cdc doanh nghigp la khach hang oda PVG, Nam 2013, c€ san lvgng va gia ban LPG déu c6 sy sut giém, 8n t6i doanh thu trong nam giam 6%/nam. ‘Tang truéng cia PVG giai doan 2009-2013 160% 120% 80% 40% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 40% ‘=Doanh thu thuén =CSéniuong —2=Gid ban Khd nang sinh Idi thép. Bién lol nhuan gop va bién loi nhugn thudn cla PVG & mic thap, chi dat lan lugt 6,7% va 0,7%. Bay fa tinh trang chung oiia cc doanh nghigp kinh doanh LPG do gia khi du vao va chi phi van chuyén cao. Trong khi 6, gia khi du ra gap phai su canh tranh gay gat trén thi tong, dan dén cac doanh nghiép phai dua ra co ché gid ban Ié hop ly nhém thu hut khéch hang, nang cao san Iu9ng va doanh thu. Ben canh dé, gid bén 16 gas cdn chiu sy kiém soat xia Cue quan ly gid thudc 89 Tal Chinh, ‘So sénh higu qua sinh li clia céc cong ty phan phdi LPG CER een oS Ee) ASP 816-228 22 16% 5.1% 85% 0.7% 530 11.143 MIG 370 120 15 06% 16% 42% 03% 196 12.484 PGC 2.039 503 21 39% 11.9% 13.8% 25% 1.547 13.207 PGS 3.070 380 24 7.7% 26,0% 15.9% 3.4% 4.711 24.040 PVG 1.46227 26 19% 67% 67% 07% 993 14.814 Khd nang thanh todn gidm nhe. Hé sé thanh ton nhanh va thanh todn hign hanh cia PVG duge git? én dinh trong giai doan 2009-2011 & mirc binh quan 1,08 va 1,18. Tuy nhién, trong nam 2013, do hang tén kho va cac khoan phai tra tang manh (lan lwot 73% va 43% YoY), hé s6 thanh toan nhanh va hién hanh Bu glam, dat 0,8 va 0,9 lan. Bao cao lan dau CT am Remotes Co’ héi cai thién két qua hoat dong va kha nang sinh Idi tly ké hoach kinh doanh CNG Cuéi nam 2013, PVG va PGD da ky hop d8ng hop téc kinh doanh phan ph6i khi CNG Thai Binh tai Dyn Khi md Ham Réng va mé Théi Binh 16 1028108 voi {éng misc dau tu 400 ty ding, trong dé ty 16 gép mBi bén Ia 50%. Téng tr wong cla 2 mé khi nay khong 4.342 ty Sm3, sn long khai thac én dinh khodng 200 trigu Sm3/ném va cung cp lién tue trong 20 nam. Dy an dy kién khdi cong vvao quy 1/2014 va hodn thanh, i vao host déng tir thang 6/2018. Khi 46, khi sé ‘duge dura tir mé Ham Réng va mé Thai Binh va dat lién va phan phéi theo hai he théng: G_-Phan phdi khi thép dp Khodng 50 - 70 trigu Sma/nzim (mét Khdi Khi th6u chun) cho Khu dng nghiép Tién H _Ché bién va phan ph6i CNG khoding 150 trigu Sm3/nam cho cc khach hang céng nghiép trong ban kinh 150 km quanh huyén Tién Hai-Thai Binh. ‘Tho danh gia cia BYSC, dy an nay 06 thé gidp PVG cai thign két qué hoat ‘66ng cfing nh khd nang sinh I6i cla minh do mbt sé nguyén nhan nhur sau: Xu hwéng chuyén sang sir dung CNG. CNG 1a mst loai khi sach, khi 6t chay khong thai ra céc loai Khé dc hai va than thién voi mobi treéng hon cdc logi nhién ligu khéc. CNG cn gitip nang cao higu suat, kéo dai cchu kj bao dung va tudi the may mde thiét bj. Ngodi ra, gié thanh oiia CNG ré hon so v6i gia cdc loai nhién ligu khéc nhu dau FO, DO va LPG tur 10-30%, Chi phi van chuyén CNG ciing thap hon nhiéu so véi LPG do CNG duc nén toi ap sudt 200 — 250 bars & nhiét 46 moi trudng 68 idm thé tich bén chiza, tang higu sudt va giém chi phf van chuyén bang cdc phurong tign van tai dung b6, duréng sat, dudng thay. Voi nhing uu Giém ota CNG, nhu c&u chuyén d6i sang loai nhién ligu nay trong tuong lai i kha lon. So sénh dinh mite tiéu hao cée logi nhién ligu (USD/MBTU) 24.30 2264 21.94 qna7 1808 ane2 581 Do LPG FO NG Khi Biomass Than CT am Remotes Bao cao lan dau Nhu cau str dung khi CNG Ia rt lon. Hign nay, trong ban kinh 150km quanh huyén Tign Hai - Thai Binh 06 khoang 62 khu eéng nghiép tai cao vung kinh té trong diém nhw Ha N6i, Hung Yen, Béc Ninh, Bac Giang, Hai Duong, Quang Ninh,.. Véi nhGng toi ich cla CNG, cae doanh inghiép, dc biét 18 trong nhGng linh vy tiéu thy mdt long dién va nhigt lon cho san xudt, 88 06 khd nang chuyén 46i sang si dung CNG. Cho én nay, PVG da gap 96 12-16 khach hang hign dang sir dung LPG 48 Idi thigu v8 CNG va ky két cdc Bian ban ghi nhé/Hgp déng nguyén tac cam k&t san lurong ki tiéu thy (Trip lweng khi lén, cho phép khai théc én dinh lién tuc trong 20 nam, Téng triv lveng cia mé Ham Réng va mé Thai Binh la 4.342 ty ‘Sm, cho phép san long khai thac én dinh khoang 200 trigu Sm3inam va cung cp lién tyc trong 20 nam. Hién nay, CNG méi chi duoc phan phéi va tidu thy tai mién Nam qua PGS va eéng ty con ctia PGS la CNG. Vigt Nam. Téng san Iurgng CNG nam 2013 cla PGS va CNG Viet Nam 1a 142 trigu Sms, U. PVG 1a don vi cung cép CNG duy nhat trén thi trudng mién Bac, do 6 khOng 06 ap lye canh tranh trong vide phan phdi khi CNG. _Bién Igi nhugn tix hoat dong kinh doanh CNG cao hon so véi LPG. Bién Igi nhuan gop ti hoat déng kinh doanh CNG cila PGS dat khong 35%, gdp hon 3 lan so véi bién loi nhuan ty LPG (khoang 10%). Rui ro kinh doanh CNG Ngoai ra, chiing t6i luu y mét sé ri ro di v6i oat déng kinh doanh CNG: Nhu cau st? dung khi CNG. Mac dil CNG of ni Uy diém so véi nhing foal 6 Bao cao lan dau CT am Remotes nnhién ligu khac, nhung vie khach hang chap nhan sir dung khi CNG nhur mot ngudn nhién ligu thay thé cho DO, FO, LPG, than... c6n gp nhibu khé khan, ‘Thur nhat, céc doanh nghiép mién Bac van sir dung nhién ligu chinh Ia than, loal nhién ligu 06 gia ré hon so v6i CNG. Ther hai, CNG phi hgp véi nhong nganh cing nghigp sir dyng m6t lurgng kén nhigt va dién trong sén xuét nhur vat lig xy dying, thép... Tuy nhién, cdc doanh nghigp van cb thé Iya chon st dung cae loai nguyén ligu khdc nhau cho cdc giai doan khac nhau trong sén xuat. Vi dy hu doanh nghiép san xuét gach men chi cn nhiét lugng én dinh trong lic nung xuong gach. Dén giai doan s4y, do khéng ddi héi nhiét Iuwong Ién, doanh ghigp of thé chon ding mét loal nhién ligu khéo, The ba, thdi gian dau tu trang bi may méc 48 phu hop vei CNG sé tin thai gian va chi phi. Do d6, nhu edu tiéu thy khi CNG c6 thé thdp hon va cham hon so voi ké hoach. Nhién figu canh tranh. Hign nay, Biomass la mét logi nhién ligu Sach dang duge ua chudng. OF mién Nam, rt nhigu khach hang ca PGS, CNG Viét Nam, PGD da ngung vige str dung khi CNG va thay thé bang biomass. Do dé, nhu ‘cu 661 véi kni CNG cla PVG cé thé gp phai sy canh tranh tir san phém biomass. Xu huréng tang gia dlu vao. PVG sé chiu nhiéu rUi ro khi gid khi du vo 06 xu huéng tng trong nhting néim ti. Vige phat tridn duge thi trrdng CNG sé phy thud nhidu vao sy tro gid tir GAS. Trong nhing nam gan day, ty sudt igi nhugn ‘ola PGS cing dang trong xu hung gidm d&n khi gid khi déu vao tang hang nam Viée phan phdi khi cé thé cham hon so véi ké hoach. Theo théng tin ti” PXS la don vi lam chan dé cho dy an CNG Thai Binh, hign tai tién 46 cho mé Ham Réng dang bj tri hon, anh hudng dén kha néng phn phdi khi vao thang 6/2015 theo nh ké hogch. Trién vong tang truéng ‘V6 tidm nang tang trudng dai han cia PVG: CO. Host dng kinh doanh LPG: PVG cé thé duy tri due thi phan tu thy 64n dinh tai mi8n Bac va mign Trung. Trong giai dogn 2014-2020, tng truéng san lueng LPG of thé dat binh quan 3-4%Indm va gia ban LPG dy bdo sé gidm trong 2014-2016 va ting tr lal tir 2017. Tuy nhién, host dong nay khéng 6 nhidu tiém nang ting tuéng do mite bi6A loi nhuén rdt thdp va canh tranh trong nganh khd gay gt. (O Hoat déng kinh doanh CNG: Ching t6i dénh gia cao tiém nang cla ‘ming hot dng nay so v6i hoat dng kinh doanh LPG nhu' 68 trinh bay 6 tr6n. Tuy nhién, ching t6i cho rang meng hoat dong nay sé chi bat au dem lai doanh thu va lgi nhugn cho PVG tir nam 2016, Bén canh 6, do chura cé théng tin vé phuong phap tinh gid CNG dau ra va dau vao 461 voi PVG nan ching 101 chua thé dua ra con $6 dur béo vé loi inhuin tte mang kinh doanh CNG. Bao cao lan dau CT am Remotes Trién vong 2014. Nam 2014, PVG dat ké hoach san ivong LPG la 175.786 tan, gidm nhe so véi nam 2013. Gia ban LPG duge dy bao sé gidm khong 1% so voi nam 2013. Ngoai ra, do nha may loc déu Dung Quat sé nging hoat déng trong thang §-6/2014, PVG sé phal sir dung nguén LPG nhép khéu niu hon Trong khi 46, gid LPG nhgp khdu thuéng cao hon gié LPG tir Nha may Igc du Dung Quat khodng 40-50S/4n, dain toi bién loi nhugn gép dy’ bao gidm xuéng con 6%, Theo dé, doanh thu va loi nhuan true thué dy bao dat 4.096 ty ddng (+1%YoY) va 35 tY ding (-3% YoY). Dinh gia ‘Ching t6i sir dung phuong phép P/E va P/B 48 dinh gid PVG. P/E va P/B binh quén eda nganh duge tinh dye trén sé ligu eta céc cong ty kinh doanh phan phdi kh dang niém yét trén thi trusng Vit Nam (ASP, SFC, PGC, PGS) va ola 22 o6ng ty cung nganh v6i PVG tei cc nuée dang phat trién trong khu vuc. Két qua cho ra P/E va P/B binh quan ola Viet Nam la 8,3 va 1,1 in, PIE va PB binh quéin cla cdc o8ng ty cing nganh trong khu vuc la 9.5 va 1,1 lan, Do a6, ching t6i sir dung mirc P/E va P/B binh quan nganh la 8.9 va 1.1 d8 dinh gid PVG Két qua dinh gia theo phuong phap so sénh ngang Eitea nar Crt Dit cca nen tars PIE 992 89 50% 8.850 PB 14.869 i 50% 16.330 Binh quan gia quyén 12.590 déngicé phan Khuyén nghi Tm nang tang tréng ella PVG trong hai ném 161 2014-2015 Ia khong cao do

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