Old Code Management

A.M.T

Decision making ,learning ,creativity ,

and Entrepreneurship

Ch 7 – part 1
Sheet 1

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 Decision Making
The process by which managers respond to opportunities and threats that confront them by
analyzing options and making determinations about specific organizational goals and
courses of action.
١ُ‫د اٖداف املٓظ‬ٜ‫ َٔ ادٌ حتد‬١‫اد٘ ايػسن‬ٛ‫دات اييت ت‬ٜ‫ايتٗد‬ٚ ‫ٕ يًفسص‬ٚ‫س‬ٜ‫ب بٗا املد‬ٝ‫طتذ‬ٝ‫ اييت ب‬١ًُٝ‫ ايع‬
١‫ش‬ٝ‫اختاذ االفعاٍ ايصش‬ٚ

 we Make Decisions in response to :

 Occurs when managers respond to ways to improve
organizational performance to benefit customers, employees.
and other Stakeholder groups.
(A) opportunities ‫ٖا َٔ ادٌ حتطني اداء‬ًٛ‫طتػ‬ٜ ٕ‫ٔ ا‬ٜ‫س‬ٜ‫ املد‬ًٞ‫ ايفسص اييت جيب ع‬ٖٞ 
‫ اصشاب املصاحل‬, ‫ظفني‬ٛ‫ امل‬, ‫ ايعُالء‬ًٞ‫ ع‬٠‫د بايفائد‬ٛ‫ع‬ٜ‫دا ٖا‬ٚ ١ُ‫املٓظ‬
ْٞ‫ ددا ا‬١‫ط‬ٜٛ‫ ن‬١‫ تعترب فسص‬ٟ‫م د‬ٛ‫٘ َٓافظ خسز َٔ ايط‬ٝ‫ ف‬ٛ‫ ي‬: ‫َجال‬
٘‫ع‬ٛ‫ ايعُالء بت‬ًٞ‫ ع‬ٞ‫ي‬ٛ‫اضت‬ٚ ‫م‬ٛ‫ب٘ َٔ ايط‬ٝ‫ْص‬ٚ ْ٘‫اخد َها‬
 Occurs when events inside of outside the organization are
adversely affecting Organizational performance
‫تؤثس‬ٚ ‫ا‬ٝ‫خازد‬/‫ا‬ًٝ‫ٕ داخ‬ٛ‫ قد ته‬١ُ‫اد٘ املٓظ‬ٛ‫ بت‬ًٞ‫دات اي‬ٜ‫ ايتٗد‬ٖٞ 
(B) threats ١‫ يًػسن‬ُٞٝ‫ االداء ايتٓظ‬ًٞ‫بايطًب ع‬
‫ِٗ َطايب‬ٝ‫ عاًَني اضساب عًػإ ي‬١‫ عُاٍ ايػسن‬: ًٞ‫د ايداخ‬ٜ‫ ايتٗد‬: ‫َجال‬
‫ مبٓع االضترياد‬١‫ي‬ٚ‫ قساز َٔ ايد‬: ٞ‫د خازد‬ٜ‫ٕ تٗد‬ٛ‫ه‬ٜ ‫قد‬

 Type of Decisions : ‫اع ايكـــسازات‬ٛ‫اْــ‬

 programmed Decisions :
Routine , Virtually automatic decision maxing the follows established rules Of guideline .
ٌ‫ قاَت بٗا َٔ قب‬١ُ‫ الٕ املٓظ‬١‫ف‬ٚ‫اتٗا َعس‬ٛ‫خط‬ٚ ١ٝٓٝ‫ت‬ٚ‫ قسازات ز‬: ١‫قسازات َربزت‬
 Managers have made the same decision many times before .
ٌ‫ا ْفظ ايكسازات َٔ قب‬ٚ‫ٔ اختر‬ٜ‫س‬ٜ‫ املد‬
 Little ambiguity involved.
١ًًٝ‫ض ق‬ُٛ‫ ايػ‬١‫ دزد‬
Ex : fulfilling order from supplier Hiring New employee

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Non-Programmed Decisions :
Non routine decision made in response to unusual or novel opportunities and threats.
١ُ‫اد٘ املٓظ‬ٛ‫دات اييت ت‬ٜ‫ايتٗد‬/‫ ايفسص‬ًٞ‫ٕ باالعتُاد ع‬ٛ‫بته‬ٚ ١ٝٓٝ‫ت‬ٚ‫ قسازات غري ز‬: ١‫قسازات غري َربزت‬
The are no rules to follow since the decision is new.
٠‫د‬ٜ‫ ميهٔ اتباعٗا الٕ ايكسازات دد‬١‫اعد ثابت‬ٛ‫دد ق‬ٜٛ‫ ال‬
 Decisions are made based on information, and a manager's intuition, and Judgment.
ٜٔ‫س‬ٜ‫اذتدع عٓد املد‬ٚ ١‫َات املتاس‬ًٛ‫ املع‬ًٞ‫ ايكسازات بتعتُد ع‬
Ex : Enter A new market
ِ‫ت‬ٜ ١‫ات ثابت‬ٛ‫خط‬/٠‫ؼ قاعد‬ٝ‫ٗا َف‬ًٝ‫ ع‬٠‫د‬ٜ‫ دد‬١‫ ساد‬ٟ‫ د‬ٞ‫ بايتاي‬.. ‫د‬ٜ‫م دد‬ٛ‫ّ بتدخٌ ض‬ٜٛ ٌ‫ َؼ ن‬١ُ‫املٓظ‬
‫اتباعٗا‬
 in the absence of Rules and Guidelines the decision makers can depend :
‫يف حالة غياب القواعد واالجزاءات املديزين (متخذي القزار ) هايعتمدوا علي ايه‬
 Intuition:
Feelings, beliefs, and hunches that come readily to mind, require little effort and information
gathering and result in on the spot decisions
( ‫عين‬ٜ ‫ يف اختاذ ايكسازات ( االسطاع‬ٞ‫ االضتدداّ اذتدض‬
ٞ‫ اي‬ٟ‫تؤد‬ٚ ‫د نبري‬ٛٗ‫َؼ بتشتاز َٓ٘ زت‬ٚ ‫ يف عكٌ َتدر ايكساز‬ٞ‫ذ‬ٝ‫ بت‬ًٞ‫االعتكادات اي‬/‫ املػاعس‬ًٞ‫االعتُاد ع‬
١ٜ‫ز‬ٛ‫اختاذ قسازات ف‬
١‫از االداب‬ٝ‫ اسطاض٘ يف اخت‬ًٞ‫عتُد ع‬ٜ ‫بدأ‬ٝ‫ ب‬١‫ االداب‬ٞ‫ ْط‬ٛ‫ ايطايب يف االَتشإ ي‬: ‫َجال‬

 Reasoned judgment:
Decisions that take time and effort to make and result from careful information gathering,
Generation of alternatives, and evaluation of alternatives.
ٌٜ‫ضع بدا‬ٚ ‫ َع‬١ٜ‫َات بعٓا‬ًٛ‫ع املع‬ُٝ‫جت‬ٚ ‫ادتٗد‬ٚ ‫قت‬ٛ‫ ايكسازت ٖٓا بتاخد بعض اي‬

Model of Decision making

 there are two Types of Decision making which are :
 classical Models ٞ‫ه‬ٝ‫ذز ايهالض‬ُٛٓ‫اي‬
 Administrative Models ٟ‫ذز االداز‬ُٛٓ‫اي‬

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 classical Model of Decision Making
 A Prescriptive model of decision making that assumes the decision maker can identify and
evaluate all possible alternatives and their consequences and rationally choose the most
appropriate course of action.
‫از‬ٝ‫ّ بعٌُ اخت‬ٛ‫ك‬ٜٚ ‫اقبٗا‬ٛ‫ع‬ٚ ١ٓ‫ع ايبدائٌ املُه‬ٝ‫ِ مج‬ٝٝ‫د تك‬ٜ‫ّ بتشد‬ٛ‫ك‬ٜ ) ‫س ( صاْع ايكساز‬ٜ‫فرتض إ املد‬ٜ 
ْٞ‫عكال‬
ِٗٓٝ‫ٌ خبتاز َاب‬ٜ‫ انرت َٔ بد‬ٟ‫ عٓد‬ٛ‫ ي‬ٞ‫ه‬ٝ‫ذز ايهالض‬ُٛٓ‫ بطتدداّ اي‬
 Optimum decision :
The most appropriate decision in light of what Managers believe to be the most desirable
future consequences for their organization.
‫ ْظس صاْع ايكساز‬١ٗ‫د‬ٚ َٔ ‫افطٌ ايٓتائر‬ٚ ٌ‫ ايكساز االَج‬ٖٛ 
 The classical Model of Decision Making
List the alternative courses of action Assumes all information about
possible and the consequences of alternatives is available to
the different alternatives managers

Rank each alternative from least Assumes managers possess the

preferred to most preferred mental facility to process this
according to personal preferences information

Assumes that managers know what

Select the alternatives that lead to
future course of action is best for
desired there consequences
organization

 The Administrative Model :

 An approach to decision making that explains why decision making is Inherently uncertain
and risky and why Managers can rarely make decisions In the Manner prescribed by the
classical model.
‫شتاطسٖا‬ٚ ‫ صٓع ايكساز‬١ًُٝ‫ح ع‬ٛ‫ض‬ٚ ّ‫ ايكسازات اييت تػسح ضبب عد‬١‫ َدخٌ صٓاع‬

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Administrative Model of Decision Making includes :

 Bounded rationality: ‫ د‬ٚ‫َدخٌ ايسغد احملد‬

There is a large number of alternatives and available information can be so extensive
that managers cannot consider It all.
Decisions are limited by peoples cognitive limitations.
ًِٗ‫ِ ن‬ٝ‫ٔ االخر ب‬ٜ‫س‬ٜ‫ع املد‬ٝ‫طتط‬ٜ‫ ال‬١‫َات املتاس‬ًٛ‫املع‬ٚ ٌ‫ ٖٓاى عدد نبري َٔ ايبدائ‬
ّ‫ عٔ ارتُظ اقطا‬١ٝ‫َات ايهاف‬ًٛ‫ٕ عٓدى نٌ املع‬ٛ‫ه‬ٜ‫ َؼ ٖا‬١ًٝ‫اْتا بتشدد ايكطِ بتاعو يف ايه‬ٚ : ‫َجال‬
‫اضح‬ٚ ٌ‫بػه‬
 Incomplete information: ١‫َات ايٓاقص‬ًٛ‫املع‬
Because of risk and uncertainty, ambiguity, and time constraints
‫قت‬ٛ‫ل اي‬ٝ‫ض‬ٚ ‫ض‬ُٛ‫ايػ‬ٚ ‫كني‬ٝ‫عدّ اي‬ٚ ‫ بطبب املداطس‬١‫َات ْاقص‬ًٛ‫ٕ املع‬ٛ‫ قد ته‬

 why information is incomplete

Uncertainly Ambiguous
And risk information

Incomplete
information

Time constraints and

information costs
 causes of incomplete information ‫َات‬ًٛ‫اضباب عدّ انتُاٍ املع‬

 Present when managers know the possible outcomes of a

particular course of action and can assign probabilities to
Risk them.
‫ارتطـــــس‬ ‫ ملطاز َعني‬١ًُ‫ا ايٓتائر احملت‬ٛ‫عسف‬ٝ‫ٔ ب‬ٜ‫س‬ٜ‫٘ خطس ملا املد‬ٝ‫ٕ ف‬ٛ‫ه‬ٝ‫ ب‬
ٟ‫ا االستُاالت د‬ٚ‫حيدد‬ٚ

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 Uncertainly  Probabilities cannot be given for outcomes and the future
‫عدّ ايتاند‬ is unknown.
‫ف‬ٚ‫ الميهٔ اعطاء االستُاالت ملطتكبٌ غري َعس‬
Ambiguous information  Information whose meaning is not clear allowing it to be
‫َات‬ًٛ‫ض املع‬ُٛ‫غ‬ interpreted In multiple or conflicting Ways.
٠‫طُح بتفطريٖا بطسم َتعدد‬ٜ ‫َات اييت الَعين هلا‬ًٛ‫ املع‬
 managers have neither the time nor money to search for all
possible alternatives and evaluate potential consequences
Time constraints and ِٝٝ‫تك‬ٚ ١ٓ‫ع ايبدائٌ املُه‬ٝ‫املاٍ يًبشح عٔ مج‬/‫قت‬ٛ‫ٕ اي‬ٚ‫س‬ٜ‫ الميًو املد‬
information costs ٟ‫ٕ عٓد‬ٛ‫ه‬ٜ‫ازات َؼ ٖا‬ٝ‫ازات ض‬ٛ‫ اْتا فتشت ستٌ انطط‬: ‫ َجال‬, ‫اقب‬ٛ‫ايع‬
‫ا ْفظ‬َٛ‫كد‬ٝ‫ ب‬ًٞ‫ ايٓاع اي‬ٞ‫ف باق‬ٛ‫ اغ‬ْٞ‫املاٍ ا‬/‫قت‬ٛ‫ح اي‬ٝ‫ َٔ س‬٠‫ايكدز‬
‫٘ ؟‬ٜ‫خدَات بتاعيت اضعازِٖ ا‬/‫املٓتذات‬
 searching for and choosing an acceptable or Satisfactory
response to problems and opportunities , rather than trying
to make the best decision.
Satisficing َٔ ‫ايفسص بدال‬/ٌ‫ يًُػان‬١ٝ‫ َسض‬ٚ‫ ا‬١‫ي‬ٛ‫ َكب‬١‫ ايبشح عٔ اضتذاب‬
ٌ‫ اختاذ ايكساز االفط‬١‫ي‬ٚ‫ستا‬
ٍٛ‫ا ايكساز املكب‬ٚ‫خيتاز‬ٚ ‫ازات‬ٝ‫د َٔ ارت‬ٚ‫ا عدد ستد‬ٛ‫طتهػف‬ٜ ٕٚ‫س‬ٜ‫ املد‬-
ٌ‫بدال َٔ ايكساز االَج‬
 Managers explore a limited number of options and choose an acceptable decision rather
than the optimum decision.
 This is the typical response of managers when dealing with incomplete information.

 six steps in Decision making

Step 1 . Recognize Need for a Decision

Step 2 . Generate Alternatives

Step 3 . Evaluate Alternatives

Step 4 . Choose Among Alternatives

Step 5 . Implement chosen Alternative

Step 6 . Learn from Feedback

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 step 1 .Recognize Need for a Decision: ‫از الختاذ ايكساز‬ٝ‫االست‬

 Sparked by an event such as environment changes.

 Managers must first realize that a decision must be made.
‫ال اْ٘ جيب اختاذ ايكساز‬ٚ‫ٕ ا‬ٚ‫س‬ٜ‫دزى املد‬ٜ ٕ‫ جيب ا‬

 Step 2. Generate Alternatives ٌ‫جتُع ايبدائ‬

 Managers must develop feasible alternative courses of action.
 lf good alternatives are missed, the resulting decision is poor.
It is hard to develop creative alternatives, so managers need to look for new ideas.
١‫ئ‬ٝ‫ٕ ض‬ٛ‫ ته‬١‫ذ‬ٝ‫ فإ ايٓت‬٠‫د‬ٝ‫ اذا ضاعت ايبدائٌ ادت‬

 Step 3. Evaluate Alternative ١‫ِ ايبدائٌ املتاس‬ٝٝ‫تك‬

 What are the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative ?
 Managers should specify criteria , then evaluate
‫ٌ َتاح‬ٜ‫ب نٌ بد‬ٛٝ‫ع‬ٚ ‫ا‬ٜ‫ َصا‬ٖٞ‫ َا‬

General criteria for Evaluating possible courses of Action

‫يوجد جمموعة من العوامل بنقيم علي اساسها كل بدي‬
 Is the alternative legal and will not violate any domestic
and international laws or government regulations?
legality ‫ ؟‬١ٝ‫ي‬ٚ‫ د‬ٚ‫ ا‬١ًٝ‫اْني ست‬ٛ‫ ق‬ٟ‫ٓتٗو ا‬ٜ ٔ‫ي‬ٚ ْْٞٛ‫ٌ قا‬ٜ‫ ٌٖ ايبد‬
١‫ُٓع ايبٓاء يف َٓطك‬ٝ‫ ب‬١‫ئ‬ٝ‫ ايب‬١ٜ‫ٕ محا‬ْٛ‫ب بظ قا‬ٛ‫ش ابين َصٓع ط‬ٚ‫ عا‬: ‫َجال‬
ْٕٛ‫ٓتٗو ايكا‬ٜ ٔ‫ ممه‬ٞ‫ٌ بتاع‬ٜ‫عين ايبد‬ٜ ١ٝٓ‫ضه‬
 Is the alternative ethical and will not bring harm
stakeholders unnecessarily?
‫ئ جيًب ايطسز السد‬ٚ ٞ‫ٌ اخالق‬ٜ‫ ٌٖ ايبد‬
Ethicalness ٕ‫٘ ضها‬ٝ‫د ف‬ٝ‫ ان‬١ٝٓ‫ ايطه‬١‫ يف املٓطك‬ٞ‫ت املصٓع بتاع‬ٝٓ‫ ب‬ٛ‫ ي‬: ‫مبعين‬
‫املدًفات‬ٚ ‫ دخإ املصٓع‬١‫ذ‬ٝ‫ٖاتطس ْت‬
 Can organization's performance goals sustain this
alternative?
ٌٜ‫ ٖرا ايبد‬ًٞ‫ اذتفاظ ع‬١ُ‫ ٌٖ ميهٔ يًُٓظ‬
Economic Feasibility ِ‫ت‬ٜ ‫املدًفات‬ٚ , ٔ‫ املداخ‬ًٞ‫زنبت َسغشات ع‬ٚ ‫ت املصٓع‬ٝٓ‫ ب‬ٛ‫ ي‬: ‫مبعين‬
‫يف‬ٚ ٞ‫ٌ بتاع‬ٜ‫ ايبد‬ًٞ‫ اْا ندا سافظت ع‬١ًُٝ‫ ض‬١‫ك‬ٜ‫ٍ بطس‬ٚ‫ٍ با‬ٚ‫اعداَٗا ا‬
‫قت َٓعت ايطسز‬ٛ‫ْفظ اي‬

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 Does the management have the capabilities and resources
required to implement the alternative?
practicality ٌٜ‫ر ايبد‬ٝ‫ تٓف‬ًٞ‫ازد ع‬ٛ‫امل‬ٚ ٠‫ ايكدز‬٠‫ االداز‬ٟ‫ ٌٖ يد‬
‫ َٔ ضسز‬١‫ئ‬ٝ‫ ايب‬ُٞ‫حي‬ٚ ‫سنب َسغشات‬ٜ ْٛ‫ ا‬٠‫ ايكدز‬ٚ‫ املصٓع عٓد‬: ‫مبعين‬
٘‫ٌ بتاع‬ٜ‫ٓفر ايبد‬ٝ‫ ب‬ٖٛٚ ‫املصٓع‬

 Step 4. Choose Among Alternatives ٌ‫از بني ايبدائ‬ٝ‫االخت‬

 Rank the various alternatives and make a decision

 Managers must be sure all the information available is brought to bear on the problem or
issue at hand.
١ً‫ املػه‬ًٞ‫ تطبل ع‬١‫َات املتاس‬ًٛ‫ٕ َٔ إ نٌ املع‬ٚ‫ٕ َتأند‬ٚ‫س‬ٜ‫ٕ املد‬ٛ‫ه‬ٜ ٕ‫ جيب ا‬

 step 5.implement chosen Alternative ٌٜ‫ر ايبد‬ٝ‫تٓف‬

 Managers must now carry out the alters ted
 Often a decision is made and not implemented
ٙ‫ر‬ٝ‫تِ تٓف‬ٜ ‫يهٔ مل‬ٚ ‫تِ اختاذ ايكساز‬ٜ ‫ غايبا‬
 Step 6. Learn From Feedback
 Managers should consider what went right and wrong with the decision and learn for the
future.
 Without feedback, managers do not learn from Experience and will repeat the same
mistake Over.
ٕ‫ ناْت غًط عًػا‬ٛ‫ي‬ٚ ) ‫ ناْت صح ( ٖٓاى االصح‬ٛ‫ سيت ي‬١‫ا َٔ قسازاتِٗ ايطابك‬ًُٛ‫تع‬ٜ ٕ‫ٔ ا‬ٜ‫س‬ٜ‫ املد‬ًٞ‫ جيب ع‬
١ًٝ‫ا يف قسازتِٗ املطتكب‬ٛٗ‫ٓتب‬ٜ
 feedback procedure
 Compare what actually happened to what was expected to happen as a result of the
decision
٘‫ث‬ٚ‫قع سد‬ٛ‫ قازٕ َاسدخ بايفعٌ مبا نإ َت‬
 Explore why any expectations for the decision were not met
‫قعات طًعت غًط ؟‬ٛ‫٘ ت‬ٝ‫ ي‬
 Derive guidelines that will help in future decision making
guidelines ‫ يف صٓع ايكساز يف املطتكبٌ اسدد ايـ‬ْٞ‫ ٖتطاعد‬ًٞ‫ اي‬

to be continue…..

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MCQ
1-An organization`s accounting department decides to send out a bill to a new customer
.what type of decisions does this represent ?
a)programmed decisions
b)Non-programmed decisions
c)intuitive decisions
d)Groupthink decisions
e)Bounded rationality decisions
2-which of the following is a programmed decisions ?
a)how much to invest in a new product
b)whether to expand into a new product
c)when to time a new advertising campaign
d)when to bill customers
3-the classical model of decision making specifies how decisions should be made by
mangers ; this is a way saying that this model of decision making is :
a)heuristic
b)perspective
c)incompetence
d)intuitive
e)satisficing
4-when a mangers know the possible outcomes of a decisions and can assign probabilities
to each of these outcomes in terms of their likelihood of occurrence in the future ,this is
known as :
a)uncertainty
b)certainty
c)risk
d)bounded rationality
e)dialectical inquiry
5-decisions that have been made many times in the past and for which mangers have rules
and guidelines about how to male similar decisions in the future are known as :
a)non-programmed decisions
b)programmed decisions
c)intuitive decisions
d)creative decisions
 Answer :
1 2 3 4 5
A D B C B

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T/ F
1-The second step in the decision-making process is identifying a problem
2-The fourth step of the decision-making process requires the decision maker to list viable
alternatives that could resolve the problem.
3-Once the alternatives have been identified, a decision maker must analyze each one
4-Programmed decisions tend to be repetitive and routine
5-Risk is a situation in which a decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable
probability estimates

 Answer :
1 2 3 4 5
F T T T f

Make ur check also:

Parts 1
studied

10 | P a g e
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