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Sun Pharma
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
39,750 11,929
CMP: INR413 TP: INR480(+16%) Buy
Bloomberg SUNP IN Impacted by distribution change; on path to build specialty portfolio
Equity Shares (m) 2,399 Change of distribution in India impacts earnings: On reported basis, sales at
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 990.7 / 14.2
INR70b, up 5% YoY, while, EBITDA/PAT at INR9.5b/INR6b is down 33%/51%
52-Week Range (INR) 679 / 350
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -13/-24/-30
YoY for the quarter. We note that SUNP’s financials were adversely impacted
12M Avg Val (INR M) 4663 by the change of its distribution in the domestic formulations (DF) business
Free float (%) 45.6 (sales down 44% YoY to INR11b; 16% of sales) from Aditya Medisales to its
wholly owned subsidiary. US sales grew 20% YoY to USD443m (44% of sales),
Financials & Valuations (INR b) led by a considerable order from a US-based customer for generic supply
Y/E Mar FY19 FY20E FY21E (which would be for a period six months starting 4QFY19). Excluding the
Net Sales 287.7 315.7 351.8 impact from the aforementioned factors (as shown in Exhibit 2),
EBITDA 57.6 73.1 86.6 sales/EBITDA/PAT would have been INR76b/INR14b/INR9b v/s our estimate
PAT 36.3 44.8 52.6 of INR74b/INR17b/INR10b.
EPS (INR) 15.1 18.6 21.9 FY19 performance: Sales/EBITDA/PAT stood at INR287b (+10%
Gr. (%) 12.2 23.3 17.4
YoY)/INR57.5b (+11% YoY)/INR36.3 (+12% YoY).
BV/Sh (INR) 172.1 186.6 204.4
ROW/API perform better than EM: ROW sales were up 32% YoY at
RoE (%) 9.1 10.4 11.2
RoCE (%) 9.1 11.1 12.6
USD153m, largely led by the integration of Pola Pharma. API sales, too,
P/E (x) 27.4 22.2 18.9 increased strongly by 46% YoY to INR4.8b. However, lower Africa sales led to
P/BV (x) 2.4 2.2 2.0 a 13% YoY decline in EM sales to USD173m.
Concall highlights: (a) SUNP guided for single-digit to low-mid-teen YoY
growth in FY20 over reported FY19 sales. (b) Profitability for FY20 would be
Estimate change restricted by an increase in promotional spend on the specialty portfolio. (c)
TP change The company has started direct to customer promotion of Illumya for 2.5
Rating change months now and would continue in FY20 as well. (d) With technical issue
being resolved, SUNP has taken salesforce on board to promote Cequa.
Valuation and view: We cut our FY20/21 estimate by 9%/8% to factor in
increased marketing spend toward the specialty portfolio in the US market.
We also reduce the P/E multiple to 22x (from 23x) 12M forward earnings
basis to factor in the delayed pick-up in the US generics business post
resolution of the regulatory issue at Halol. Accordingly, we arrive at a TP of
INR480. Maintain Buy.
Other highlights
No further update on the whistle blower-related aspect.
There has been no significant impact of Atlas-related unwinding of transaction
on P&L.
Sudhir Valia would step down from position of Whole-time Director to Non-
Executive director of the company with effect from today.
There is no insider trading case pending on any employee of SUNP.
In 4QFY19, the company filed 9 ANDAs and received approvals for 12.
As of end-FY19, total 118 ANDAs are pending for approval. 13 have tentative
approval status.
R&D spend for the quarter was INR5.3b (7.6% of sales). SUNP guided for R&D
spend at 8-9% of total sales for FY20.
RoW sales were up 32% YoY, largely on the back of integration of the recently
acquired Pola Pharma (Japan).
Emerging market sales declined YoY due to lower business in Africa.
Distribution-related impact has been completely absorbed in 4QFY19 and
normalized domestic formulation sales would happen going forward.
SUNP has slightly above 10.5% market share in Odomzo.
Effective tax rate would move upward, going forward.
Expansion capex would be USD200m for FY20.
Exhibit 1: Excluding the impact on India and US business, PAT would be INR9b for 4QFY19
Excluding impact change in distribution of DF
INRm Reported basis
sales and increased US sales
Sales 70,443 75,853
EBITDA 9,491 13,297
PAT 6,359 9,014
EPS (INR) 2.9 3.8
Source: MOFSL, Company
28 May 2019 2
Sun Pharma
Valuation and view: We cut our FY20/21 estimate by 9%/8% to factor in increased
marketing spend toward the specialty portfolio in the US market. We also reduce
the P/E multiple to 22x (from 23x) 12M forward earnings basis to factor in the
delayed pick-up in the US generics business post resolution of the regulatory issue at
Halol. Accordingly, we arrive at a TP of INR480. Maintain Buy.
28 May 2019 3
Sun Pharma
Story in charts
Exhibit 4: Revenues grew by ~5% YoY in 4QFY19… Exhibit 5: …led by US business which saw 20% YoY growth
Sales (INR b) Growth YoY (%) US sales (USD m) Growth YoY (%)
24.0 25 20
18.4 15.8 16.0 5.0 21
Thousands
13.0 9 8 11 10
8.5
3.9 -3
-1.7 -16 351 309
62
-10.6
-15.1-14.1 -36 -36
-42 -44
-23.0
76 80 78 77 68 66 66 67 71 68 77 70 592 609 554 510 381 328 368 380 342 362 443
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
Source: Company, MOFSL 4QFY19 Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 6: 44% YoY decline in India sales due to one-off Exhibit 7: Taro sales see subdued 2.7% YoY growth
Domestic formulations (INR b) Growth YoY (%) Taro Sales (USD m) Growth YoY (%)
13.5
22.2 8.6 8.6 7.9
15.1
Thousands
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
Source: Company, MOFSL Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 8: EBITDA margin contracted 760bp YoY Exhibit 9: R&D was lower on YoY basis at 7.6% of sales
EBITDA (INR b) EBITDA Margin (%) R&D cost (INR b) % of sales
11.1
33.0 33.5 34.3
28.9 9.1 8.8 8.5
8.0 7.8 7.2 7.6
21.2 21.1 21.3 21.0 23.1 7.1 7.0 6.6
20.0 6.5 6.1
18.1 17.1
13.5
25 27 27 22 12 11 13 14 14 15 14 18 9 6.7 5.2 5.5 6.1 6.0 5.2 5.1 4.7 7.4 5.0 4.5 4.7 5.3
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
28 May 2019 4
Sun Pharma
Exhibit 10: Expect revenue CAGR of 11% over FY19-21E Exhibit 11: US generics to see 8% YoY growth over FY19-21E
US Sales (USD m) Growth YoY (%)
Formulations (INR b) API (INR b)
55.0
42.9 39.3
23
16 21
11 15 19 12.5 9.5
15 8.0
-1.1
8 -7.7 1357
8
-33.9
265 265 286 247 266 295 329 1130 1615 2249 2076 2054 1526 1649 1805
106 154
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Source: Company, MOFSL Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 12: Expect India biz CAGR of 8% over FY19-21E Exhibit 13: EBITDA margin to improve gradually
India sales (INR b) Growth YoY (%) EBITDA (INR b) EBITDA Margin (%)
43.7 43.3
82% Thousands
Thousands
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20E
FY21E
28 May 2019 5
Sun Pharma
Profit after Tax 38,809 54,882 58,304 78,363 26,338 32,093 52,791 63,090
Change (%) 11.9 41.4 6.2 34.4 -66.4 21.9 64.5 19.5
Margin (%) 24 20 21 26 10 11 17 18
Less: Mionrity Interest 7375 9488 11145 8719 4722 5439 8000 10500
Reported PAT 31,434 45,394 47,159 69,644 21,616 26,654 44,791 52,590
Adjusted PAT (excl. Ex. Items) 52,813 47,415 47,069 62,890 32,362 36,318 44,791 52,590
28 May 2019 6
Sun Pharma
28 May 2019 7
Sun Pharma
Corporate profile
Exhibit 1: Sensex rebased
Company description
Sun Pharma is among the largest players in the
domestic formulations market and the most
profitable one. It makes and markets specialty
medicines and APIs for chronic therapy areas such
as cardiology, psychiatry, neurology, etc. Sun has
forayed into regulated markets by acquiring
majority stake in CaracoPharma and has
strengthened its presence in US by recent
acquisition of Taro. Source: MOFSL/Bloomberg
Source: Capitaline
28 May 2019 8
Sun Pharma
28 May 2019 9
Sun Pharma
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263;
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Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company
Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth
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a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt.
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* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
28 May 2019 10