Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)

Rating: ACCUMULATE | CMP: Rs3,196 | TP: Rs3,433

November 15, 2019 Story remains on track; Accumulate

Q2FY20 Result Update Quick Pointers:

☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target |  Reco  Volume growth at 3%, Market share gain continue

Change in Estimates  2Q Inflation at 3%, forward covers extended till February

Current Previous

Rating
FY20E
ACCUMULATE
FY21E FY20E FY21E
ACCUMULATE
 Croissants issue resolved, taking salted snacks to west India
Target Price 3,433 3,307
Sales (Rs. m) 113,423 128,071 114,152 128,887 We retain positive view on BRIT despite near term growth headwinds given
% Chng. (0.6) (0.6)
EBITDA (Rs. m) 17,897 20,,999 18,027 21,151
that the company remains on track with its strategic plans and milestones
% Chng. (0.7) (0.7) like 1) distribution expansion in Rural India and Hindi heartland 2) Innovation
EPS (Rs.) 58.8 66.1 56.5 66.5
% Chng. 4.1 (0.5) and renovation of Biscuits portfolio 3) Initial success in cream wafers,
Milkshakes and salted snacks and 4) Rs2.7bn from cost efficiency program
Key Financials - Standalone (Rs2.25bn in FY18 and FY19).
Y/e Mar FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Sales (Rs. m) 104,825 113,423 128,071 145,892 Volume growth has seen moderation from past few quarters and we expect
EBITDA (Rs. m) 16,621 17,897 20,999 24,923 slow recovery. We are increasing estimates by 4.1% for FY20 mainly led by
Margin (%) 15.9 15.8 16.4 17.1
lower tax rates while EPS estimates for FY21 are being cut by 0.5%
PAT (Rs. m) 11,222 14,134 15,889 18,973
EPS (Rs.) 46.7 58.8 66.1 79.0 respectively. We estimate 19.2% PAT CAGR over FY19-22 and value the stock
Gr. (%) 16.6 25.9 12.4 19.4 at 45x Sept21 EPS. We arrive at a SOTP based target price of Rs3433 (Rs.3307
DPS (Rs.) 15.0 17.8 21.5 26.0
Yield (%) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 earlier). Retain Accumulate.
RoE (%) 30.9 33.9 32.8 31.6
RoCE (%) 41.8 35.8 34.3 35.6
EV/Sales (x) 7.2 6.6 5.8 5.0
Concall Takeaways: 1) Stronger recovery only after 9 months from now. Market
EV/EBITDA (x) 45.1 42.0 35.4 29.4 share gains in hindi belt continues, despite slowdown 2) BRIT now has forward
PE (x) 68.4 54.3 48.3 40.5
covers for Raw Material till February, opportunist buying done in Q2 has lead to
P/BV (x) 19.0 17.9 14.3 11.6
increase in inventory 3) Increased direct reach by 30000 outlets in Q2 and focus is
now to get more SKU’s in existing outlets. 4) Salty snacks continue gaining market
Key Data BRIT.BO | BRIT IN share. Launch done in west as well which will be an acid test as it has many value
52-W High / Low Rs.3,584 / Rs.2,300
Sensex / Nifty 40,357 / 11,895 players. 5) In milk shakes it has 20%+ market share in less than a year (no. 2
Market Cap Rs.768bn/ $ 10,696m brand). 6) Croissant had some back end issues which are now resolved and within
Shares Outstanding 240m
3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.3718.68m 1 month will surpass Bauli in distribution 7) Some new launches have been
postponed on the back of slowdown however ad spends remain at same levels. 8)
Shareholding Pattern (%) Rural is still growing faster than urban but from industry stand point urban is growing
Promoter’s 50.66 faster than rural. 9) Ranjangaon plant has 12 operational lines now (capacity of ~
Foreign 15.22
140,000 TPA) 10) Capex also slowed down to Rs1.7 bn in 1H. 11) ICD to group
Domestic Institution 13.57
Public & Others 20.55 companies has not changed at Rs4.50bn at rate of 10%. 12) Biscuit is 75% of sales.
Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) -
In 2 years it may go down to 70%. 13) Middle East & Africa continues to be
challenging, America is growing in double digits. Nepal operations doing well and
Stock Performance (%)
market share is increasing.
1M 6M 12M
Absolute 0.5 18.9 9.8
Relative (4.2) 9.3 (4.0) Domestic Volume growth at 3%: Net sales increased by 7.1% YoY to Rs 28.96bn.
Gross profit increased 7.7% with 20bps margin expansion (60bps decline QoQ on

Amnish Aggarwal
increase in milk prices, wheat & palm oil prices). EBITDA increased 10.8% to
amnishaggarwal@plindia.com | 91-22-66322233 Rs4.7bn on 70 bps decline in other expenses even as staff cost increased 40bps.
Darsh Gada PBT from operation were up 6.8%. PAT increased 61% to Rs 4.6bn mainly on the
darshgada@plindia.com | 91-22-66322256 back of tax benefits and increase in other income by 230% because of dividend
payment of Rs 665 mn from subsidiary. There was exceptional profit of Rs 350 mn
for reversal of provision of diminution in value of investment.

November 15, 2019 1

 Britannia Industries

2QFY20 Result Overview: Sales up 7.1% led by 3% volume growth

Y/e March (Rs m) Q2FY20 Q2FY19 YoY gr. (%) Q1FY20 H1FY20 H1FY19 YoY gr. (%)
Net Sales 28,961 27,046 7.1 25,795 54,756 51,113 7.1
Gross Profit 11,412 10,600 7.7 10,307 21,720 20,022 8.5
Margins (%) 39.4 39.2 0.2 40.0 39.7 39.2 0.5
Other Expenses 6,709 6,354 5.6 6,425 13,134 12,098 8.6
% of Sales 23.2 23.5 -0.3 24.9 24.0 23.7 0.3
EBITDA 4,704 4,247 10.8 3,882 8,586 7,924 8.3
Margins (%) 16.2 15.7 0.5 15.0 15.7 15.5 0.2
Depreciation 367 315 16.4 373 739 619 19.5
Interest 140 4 83 224 8
Other Income 1,302 395 229.4 655 1,957 781 150.7
PBT 5,499 4,323 27.2 4,081 9,580 8,078 18.6
Tax 923 1,488 (38.0) 1,419 2,342 2,780 (15.7)
Tax Rate (%) 16.8 34.4 -17.6 34.8 24.4 34.4 -10.0
Adjusted PAT 4,576 2,836 61.4 2,662 7,238 5,298 36.6
Source: Company, PL

Volume growth at 3% in 2Q

14.0 13.0 13.0

12.0 12.0
12.0 11.0
10.0
10.0
8
8.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
6.0
6.0

4.0 3.0 3.0

2.5
2.0
1.5
2.0

0.0
Q4FY16

Q1FY17

Q2FY17

Q3FY17

Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q2FY20
Q3FY16

Q4FY17

Q4FY18

Q4FY19
Source: Company Data, PL Research Q1FY20

Overall inflation at 3% as BRIT took forward contracts and higher stock buying

Source: Company, PL

November 15, 2019 2

 Britannia Industries

BRIT continues to increase GAP with No2 player in biscuits category

Source: Company, PL

Hindi belt has been impacted by slowdown in rural India; Direct reach has increased to 2.13mn outlets

Source: Company, PL

November 15, 2019 3

 Britannia Industries

New launches firing with Croissant and Milk shakes leading the growth

Source: Company, PL

Continuous innovation and relaunches continue

Source: Company, PL

November 15, 2019 4

 Britannia Industries

Financials
Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e Mar FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Y/e Mar FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Net Revenues 104,825 113,423 128,071 145,892 Non-Current Assets

YoY gr. (%) 12.7 8.2 12.9 13.9
Cost of Goods Sold 62,776 68,142 76,704 87,345 Gross Block 21,961 26,501 30,546 34,096
Gross Profit 42,048 45,281 51,367 58,546 Tangibles 21,583 26,083 30,083 33,583
Margin (%) 40.1 39.9 40.1 40.1 Intangibles 378 418 463 513
Employee Cost 3,216 3,824 4,067 4,346
Other Expenses 5,985 6,587 7,391 8,252 Acc: Dep / Amortization 8,685 10,348 12,309 14,533
Tangibles 8,383 10,006 11,923 14,099
EBITDA 16,621 17,897 20,999 24,923 Intangibles 302 342 386 435
YoY gr. (%) 16.4 7.7 17.3 18.7
Margin (%) 15.9 15.8 16.4 17.1 Net fixed assets 13,276 16,153 18,237 19,563
Tangibles 13,200 16,076 18,160 19,484
Depreciation and Amortization 1,350 1,663 1,961 2,224 Intangibles 76 76 77 79

EBIT 15,271 16,234 19,038 22,699 Capital Work In Progress 649 1,399 1,899 2,399
Margin (%) 14.6 14.3 14.9 15.6 Goodwill - - - -
Non-Current Investments 11,607 11,583 11,709 11,860
Net Interest 15 647 557 557 Net Deferred tax assets (39) 18 (132) (311)
Other Income 1,905 3,226 2,953 3,453 Other Non-Current Assets 295 142 162 193

Profit Before Tax 17,161 18,813 21,434 25,595 Current Assets

Margin (%) 16.4 16.6 16.7 17.5 Investments 17,117 22,964 30,934 34,495
Inventories 7,189 7,873 9,023 10,286
Total Tax 5,939 4,679 5,545 6,621 Trade receivables 3,510 3,708 4,032 4,403
Effective tax rate (%) 34.6 24.9 25.9 25.9 Cash & Bank Balance 405 503 555 617
Other Current Assets 2,438 2,812 3,177 3,622
Profit after tax 11,222 14,134 15,889 18,973 Total Assets 56,491 67,266 79,723 87,272
Minority interest - - - -
Share Profit from Associate - - - - Equity
Equity Share Capital 240 240 240 240
Adjusted PAT 11,222 14,134 15,889 18,973 Other Equity 40,154 42,763 53,495 66,240
YoY gr. (%) 16.7 25.9 12.4 19.4 Total Networth 40,395 43,003 53,735 66,480
Margin (%) 10.7 12.5 12.4 13.0
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - - Non-Current Liabilities
Long Term borrowings 3 7,214 7,214 4
Reported PAT 11,222 14,134 15,889 18,973 Provisions - - - -
YoY gr. (%) 18.8 25.9 12.4 19.4 Other non current liabilities - - - -
Margin (%) 10.7 12.5 12.4 13.0
Current Liabilities
Other Comprehensive Income (21) - - - ST Debt / Current of LT Debt 19 - - -
Total Comprehensive Income 11,201 14,134 15,889 18,973 Trade payables 10,325 10,973 12,102 13,411
Equity Shares O/s (m) 240 240 240 240 Other current liabilities 5,480 5,793 6,373 7,063
EPS (Rs) 46.7 58.8 66.1 79.0 Total Equity & Liabilities 56,491 67,268 79,723 87,272
Source: Company Data, PL Research Source: Company Data, PL Research

November 15, 2019 5

 Britannia Industries

Cash Flow (Rs m) Key Financial Metrics

Y/e Mar FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Year
Y/e Mar FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

PBT 17,161 18,813 21,434 25,595 Per Share(Rs)

Add. Depreciation 1,350 1,663 1,961 2,224 EPS 46.7 58.8 66.1 79.0
Add. Interest 15 647 557 557 CEPS 52.3 65.7 74.3 88.2
Less Financial Other Income 1,905 3,226 2,953 3,453 BVPS 168.1 178.9 223.6 276.6
Add. Other (3,276) (4,500) (4,519) (5,336) FCF 21.5 1.9 5.2 36.3
Op. profit before WC changes 15,251 16,624 19,432 23,040 DPS 15.0 17.8 21.5 26.0
Net Changes-WC (1,185) (6,195) (8,102) (3,644) Return Ratio(%)
Direct tax (5,939) (4,679) (5,545) (6,621) RoCE 41.8 35.8 34.3 35.6
Net cash from Op. activities 8,126 5,749 5,786 12,775 ROIC 39.2 37.1 39.5 43.5
Capital expenditures (2,960) (5,290) (4,545) (4,050) RoE 30.9 33.9 32.8 31.6
Interest / Dividend Income 1,816 3,206 2,935 3,435 Balance Sheet
Others (5,243) - - - Net Debt : Equity (x) (0.4) (0.4) (0.5) (0.5)
Net Cash from Invt. activities (6,387) (2,084) (1,610) (615) Net Working Capital (Days) 1 2 3 3
Issue of share cap. / premium 1,560 (5,767) 1,589 1,897 Valuation(x)
Debt changes (204) 7,193 - (7,210) PER 68.4 54.3 48.3 40.5
Dividend paid (3,619) (4,346) (5,157) (6,229) P/B 19.0 17.9 14.3 11.6
Interest paid (15) (647) (557) (557) P/CEPS 61.1 48.6 43.0 36.2
Others - - - - EV/EBITDA 45.1 42.0 35.4 29.4
Net cash from Fin. activities (2,278) (3,567) (4,125) (12,098) EV/Sales 7.2 6.6 5.8 5.0
Net change in cash (539) 99 51 62 Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Free Cash Flow 5,167 459 1,241 8,725 Source: Company Data, PL Research
Source: Company Data, PL Research

Quarterly Financials (Rs m)

Y/e Mar Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
Net Revenue 27,032 26,681 25,795 28,961
YoY gr. (%) 12.1 11.7 7.2 7.1
Raw Material Expenses 15,915 15,770 15,487 17,549
Gross Profit 11,117 10,912 10,307 11,412
Margin (%) 41.1 40.9 40.0 39.4
EBITDA 4,463 4,222 3,882 4,704
YoY gr. (%) 19.1 14.2 5.6 10.8
Margin (%) 16.5 15.8 15.0 16.2
Depreciation / Depletion 369 363 373 367
EBIT 4,094 3,859 3,509 4,337
Margin (%) 15.1 14.5 13.6 15.0
Net Interest 4 3 83 140
Other Income 554 583 655 1,302
Profit before Tax 4,645 4,439 4,081 5,499
Margin (%) 17.2 16.6 15.8 19.0
Total Tax 1,618 1,542 1,419 923
Effective tax rate (%) 34.8 34.7 34.8 16.8
Profit after Tax 3,027 2,897 2,662 4,576
Minority interest - - - -
Share Profit from Associates - - - -
Adjusted PAT 3,027 2,897 2,662 4,576
YoY gr. (%) 21.5 18.4 8.1 61.4
Margin (%) 11.2 10.9 10.3 15.8
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - (161) 350
Reported PAT 3,027 2,897 2,501 4,926
YoY gr. (%) 21.5 18.4 1.6 73.7
Margin (%) 11.2 10.9 9.7 17.0
Other Comprehensive Income (1) (18) - -
Total Comprehensive Income 3,026 2,879 2,501 4,926
Avg. Shares O/s (m) 240 240 240 240
EPS (Rs) 12.6 12.1 11.1 19.1
Source: Company Data, PL Research

November 15, 2019 6

 Britannia Industries

Price Chart Recommendation History

(Rs)
No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)
3475
1 03-Oct-19 Accumulate 3,307 2,903

2957 2 09-Aug-19 Accumulate 3,068 2,602

3 04-Jul-19 Accumulate 3,145 2,841
2439
4 02-May-19 Accumulate 3,145 2,783
1921 5 05-Apr-19 Accumulate 3,142 2,994
6 11-Feb-19 Accumulate 3,159 3,108
1404
May - 17

May - 18

May - 19
Nov - 16

Nov - 17

Nov - 18

Nov - 19
7 07-Jan-19 Accumulate 3,231 3,144

Analyst Coverage Universe

Sr. No. Company Name Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs)
1 Asian Paints Accumulate 1,855 1,767
2 Avenue Supermarts Reduce 1,647 1,843
3 Britannia Industries Accumulate 3,307 2,903
4 Colgate Palmolive Reduce 1,267 1,564
5 Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals BUY 303 255
6 Dabur India Hold 484 481
7 Emami Accumulate 373 327
8 Future Retail BUY 477 381
9 GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare Hold 9,144 8,960
10 Havells India Reduce 580 670
11 Hindustan Unilever Accumulate 2,083 2,009
12 ITC BUY 344 249
13 Jubilant FoodWorks BUY 1,753 1,435
14 Kansai Nerolac Paints Accumulate 548 539
15 Marico Reduce 339 394
16 Nestle India Reduce 12,093 14,490
17 Pidilite Industries Hold 1,365 1,344
18 Titan Company Hold 1,189 1,282
19 Voltas Hold 662 667

PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance)

Buy : > 15%
Accumulate : 5% to 15%
Hold : +5% to -5%
Reduce : -5% to -15%
Sell : < -15%
Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock
Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly

November 15, 2019 7

 Britannia Industries

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(Indian Clients)
We/I, Mr. Amnish Aggarwal- MBA, CFA, Mr. Darsh Gada- MBA Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in
this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related
to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

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reflect his or her or their personal views about all of the issuers and their securities; and No part of his or her or their compensation was, is or will be directly related to the specific
recommendation or views expressed in this research report.

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November 15, 2019 AMNISH

Digitally signed by AMNISH AGGARWAL
DN: c=IN, o=Prabhudas Lilladher Private Limited, ou=organisation,
cn=AMNISH AGGARWAL,
serialNumber=7a6f13691881d5a8af6353865a61b48b7040e72f4a1bf531
8
AGGARWAL
82e368b3ca14a5e4, postalCode=400015,
2.5.4.20=c9b37ca6a8c78a11d6c42a4b6014e984fdf135dc1449611df0dc6
82d08443fc6, st=Maharashtra
Date: 2019.11.15 18:52:07 +05'30'