Effects of climate change on the

distribution of plant species

Sven Pompe1, Franz Badeck2, Jan Hanspach1, Stefan

Klotz1 & Ingolf Kühn1*
1) Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Dept. Community Ecology
2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
*) Email: Ingolf.Kuehn@ufz.de

www.ufz.de/klimawandel-flora/
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Possible impacts of climate change on the flora

ƒ Phenologische changes
ƒ Genetic adaptations
ƒ Change of biotic interactions
(e.g. competition, pollination, herbivory, …)
ƒ Change of distribution and dispersal patterns
ƒ Change in abundance, regional loss

¾ Impacts on society through altered ecosystem services

¾ New conservation strategies, risk management

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 Impacts on European plant species richness

Mean species loss in

Europe: 27–42%

(Thuiller et al., Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 2005)

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25 year of monitoring in Central German dry grasslands

mean April temperature

April-Mai rainfall
annual solar radiation

Matesanz, Brooker, Valladares, Klotz, Journal of Vegetation Science 2008

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Obeserved changes in the vegetation of Central
German dry grasslands
cover of perennials

cover of annuals
number of perennials

number of annulas

mean April temperature (°C) April-May precipitation (mm)

Matesanz, Brooker, Valladares, Klotz, Journal of Vegetation Science 2008

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Phenological changes in plants

Badeck et al. 2004, New Phytologist 162 (2), 295-309.

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Methodology

Land cover
European range

soil
Species
selection
climate

Modelling with
Risk analysis regional climate Model calibration
change scenarios

Climate data from Badeck, Pompe, Kühn, Glauer, 2008, Validation

Naturschutz & Landschaftspflege 40(10), 343-345

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Why European distribution data

Range loss

Beech (Fagus sylvatica),

Floraweb

Europe Germany
Æ Overestimation of range loss

Beech (Fagus sylvatica),

Atlas Florae Europaeae
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 Soil and land cover increases model fit
climate-soil-land cover models
fit,Klima-Boden-Landbedeckungs-Modelle

Explained variance
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Kappa
Model

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

climate soil land cover
Kappa Klima-Modelle
Model fit, climate only models

Pompe, Badeck, Hanspach, Klotz,

Thuiller & Kühn, 2008, Biology Letters 4, 564–567
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 Projections for selected species, +4°-scenario

Range changes,

Based on Daten from Pompe, Kühn et al., BfN final report

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 Projections for selected scenarios

Caltha palustris (marsh merrigold)

www.floraweb.de
+ 2° + 3° + 4°

Based on Daten from Pompe, Kühn et al., BfN final report

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Assumptions on dispersal ability

ƒ No dispersal kernel available for most species

ƒ Unknown influence of climate change on dispersal kernels
ƒ Two extreme assumptions:
1. Full dispersal
2. No dispersal

Two Hypothesis:
1. Human traffic facilitates dispersal
2. Fragmentation inhibits dispersal
Æ No. 1 is probably relevant for common species
Æ No. 2 is probably relevant for rare and specialist species

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 Changes in species richness in Germany
(per grid cell)

+ 2°C
+ 3°C
+ 4°C

Species ricness

Full dispersal No dispersal

Pompe, Badeck, Hanspach, Klotz,

Thuiller & Kühn, 2008, Biology Letters 4, 564–567
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Species gain and loss
Losses
+ 2°: 15 ± 5%
+ 3°: 20 ± 6%
+ 4°: 35 ± 10%

Gains
+ 2°: 14 ± 6%
+ 3°: 17 ± 7%
+ 4°: 21 ± 8%
Pompe, Badeck, Hanspach,
Klotz, Thuiller & Kühn, 2008,
Biology Letters 4, 564–567

2°C 3°C 4°C

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 Impact of climate change on the flora

Species loss [%] Species gain [%] Species turnover [%]

Modelled scenario 2080, +4°C

Æ n= 845 species
Æ 2995 grid cells (FLORKART).
Pompe, Badeck, Hanspach, Klotz,
Thuiller & Kühn, 2008, Biology Letters 4, 564–567
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Impacts on „red list species“ in Germany

Species loss

+ 2° + 3° + 4°
Æ red-list species (gey) are much more impacted
than not listed species (white)
Using data from:
Pompe, Berger, Walther, Badeck, Hanspach, Sattler, Klotz, Kühn, Natur & Landschaft 1/2009

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 Species turnover in Germany until 2080

+ 2° + 3° + 4°

Pompe, Badeck, Hanspach, Klotz,

Thuiller & Kühn, 2008, Biology Letters 4, 564–567
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 Biological interactions and climate change

• Butterfly Boloria titania (Titania‘s

fritillary) feeds monophagously as
larvae on Bistorta officinalis
(Adderwort)

© Walter Schön
© Thomas Muer

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Current niche spaces of Boloria titania
and Ploygonum bistorta

P. bistorta
B. titania
Overlap

Two separate ecological niche

models for the butterfly and its
host plant based on climate, land
use and soil characteristics.
AUC‘s > 0.93

¾ Niche spaces of Boloria titania and Polygonum bistorta show today only
small areas of overlap.

Schweiger, Settele, Kudrna, Klotz, Kühn, Ecology, in press

Projected changes in the host plant Ploygonum bistorta
for 2080

SEDG GRAS

Remaining niche space

New niche space
Lost niche space

¾ Future climate change leads to reduction and fragmentation of original

distribution and a shift of climate space to the north.

Schweiger, Settele, Kudrna, Klotz, Kühn, Ecology, in press

Projected changes in niche space of Boloria titania and
Ploygonum bistorta for 2080
¾ Niche space of B. titania
SEDG SEDG
would increase
¾ But mismatch of both
niche spaces increases, too

¾ Serious decrease of
overlap in the butterfly’s
original distribution (Alps
and Baltic States).
GRAS GRAS
¾ Potentially new areas in
the north could only be
colonised in the unlikely
case of high dispersal ability
of P. bistorta.

¾ Climate change can

disrupt trophic interactions.
P. bistorta
B. titania
Overlap Schweiger, Settele, Kudrna, Klotz, Kühn, Ecology, in press
Summary

• Species respond idiosyncratically

• Æ no migrating habitats or communities!
• Moderate climate change (2°C)
– 60% of the species lose more range than they gain.
– 7% of the species lose >2/3 of their range.
• Strong climate change(4°C)
– 68 % of the species lose more range than they gain.
– 20% of the species lose >2/3 of their range.
• Trees and dwarfs shrub, insect pollinated species and
species with high moisture requirements are at high risk.
• Biological interactions have substantial influence on
species‘ sensitivity to climate change.
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Ackowledgements

0
Federal Agency for Natur Conservation, Projects
ƒ „Modellierung der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf
die Flora„ (FKZ 805 81 001)
ƒ „Schutzgebiete Deutschlands im Klimawandel – Risiken

0
und Handlungsoptionen“ (FKZ 806 82 270 - K1)
Network Phytodiversity in Germany for coordinating mapping
and providing data,
Thousands of volunteers for floristic field work,

60
provided via FLORKART/FLORAWEB
EU-Projects ALARM: Assessing LArge-scale environmental
risks for biodiversity with tested methods
www.alarmproject.net, for providing scenarios

80
& MACIS: Minimization of and Adaptation to Climate change
Impacts on biodiverSity www.macis-project.net

Thank you for your attention!

www.ufz.de/klimawandel-flora/
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