Climate change and ecosystems :

threats, opportunities and

solutions

Dr. Pam Berry, Environmental Change

Institute (retired), University of Oxford.
pam.berry@eci.ox.ac.uk
 Outline
1. What are the drivers of biodiversity change?
2. Threats and opportunities of climate change
- observed
- projected
3. What are the interactions between climate
and ecosystems?
4. What solutions are available for the
challenge of climate change?
 Current state of global biodiversity

Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, 2019

2. Threats and opportunities of climate
change: observed

© WWF
Climate change and ecological processes

Scheffers et al,
2016 Science,
354, 719
 Observed impacts on species
morphology, physiology and behaviour
• painted turtles grow larger in warmer years, and during
warm sets of years and turtles can reach sexual maturity
faster

• Spring and summer

temperatures linked to
variations in the size
of eggs of the Pied
Flycatcher
from Jarvinen, 1994

• Temperature can determine sex while reptiles are still in

the egg.
 Observed impacts on phenology
• mostly spring arriving earlier,
autumn later, increase in growing
season

• earlier breeding of some birds in

Europe, North America, and Latin
America birds arriving earlier,
departing later or not at all Arrival dates of house martins
in Oxon, (Cotton, 2003)
Date of leaf unfolding
• multiple generations

• winter chilling requirements of

species may not be met, so leafing or
germination may be delayed
Fu et al Nature 526, 2015
 Observed impacts on distributions
• species moving polewards and
upwards in response to increased
temperatures.
This can lead to
- increase in warmth-loving
species
- open vegetation being replaced
by trees and shrubs

• at poleward range margin habitat

requirements of species may
change
Hill et al, 1999 Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 266, 1197-1206
Shifting elevation of native and non-native
plants in the Alps

Dainese, M., et al. (2017). Nature Climate Change

Observed changes in tundra ecosystem
productivity

Hudson and Henry 2009 Ecology,

90: 2657-2663.
Confidence in detection and attribution
of observed changes

IPCC, AR5, 2014, Chapter 4 WGII

2. Threats and opportunities of climate
change: projected

© WWF
Framework for understanding effects
of global change drivers

Franklin et al., 2016, PNAS, 113, 3725-3734

Modelling future responses

SPECIES model
 Red-tipped cudweed

Observed distribution

Simulated suitable current

climate space
Red-tipped
cudweed

(Filago
lutescens)

MONARCH 3, Berry
et al., 2007
Song
thrush
(Turdus
philomelos)

MONARCH 3
Tower
mustard
(Arabis
glabra

MONARCH 3
 Potential range loss with and without dispersal

(A) Invertebrates
(B) Chordata
(C) Plantae​
(D) Insecta
(E) Mammalia
(F) Aves (birds)
(G) Reptilia
(H) Amphibia

The proportion of modelled species losing more than half their climatically determined range by
2100 at specific levels of global warming. Warren et al. Science 2018;360:791-795
Published by AAAS
Proportion of species in Great Britain likely to be at
risk or have an opportunity for expansion from
climate change

Pearce-Higgins et al. (2017) Biol. Cons., 213, 124-134

Uncertainty in species range projections

Ecological versus Algorithmic

• Biotic interactions
• Model-based uncertainty
• Population dynamics • Thresholding
• Dispersal • Climate projections
• In situ adaptation
• Existing adaptation
• Direct impacts of CO2
(based on Pearson and Dawson, Global Ecol.Biogeog., 2003; 2004)
 Model-based uncertainty
Modelling technique
A A C C C G G G G
200
N N E G T A A A L
N N R M A M R M
1 2 P

100
Diastella divaricata

Predicted -100

percentage
300
range gain/loss by
2030 200 Leucospemum
hypophyllocarpodendron
100

-100

(Pearson et al., 2006.; Thuiller et al. Nature, 2004; see also Beaumont et al., 2016,
Ecological Modelling 342, 135–146)
Extreme events July/August 2003 headlines
 Limitations and assumptions
• species are in equilibrium with mean climate
• difficult to model range margins and patchy
distributions
• only certain species are selected – do they
adequately represent habitat response?
• outputs are of potential suitable climate space -
fundamental vs realised niche
• no migration or habitat availability - will species
fulfil their range?
• do not reflect response of other factors to climate
change - these cannot easily be included need
other models
What is modelling not projecting?

i) Land cover change (Habitat)

ii) Dispersal
iii) Species and trophic interactions
iv) Demography
v) Physiology
vi) Adaptive potential
vii)Multiple drivers
Based on Urban et al., 2017, Science 353, 1113
 LPJ-GUESS a dynamic global
vegetation model

Hickler et al. 2012 Global Ecology & Biogeography 21: 50-63

Level of ecosystem transformation under 1.5 degC
of warming

Gerten et al., 2013 in IPCC 1.5 report, Chapter 3, 2018

Current and future net primary productivity with
and without CO2 increases

Yu et a., 2021 Frontiers in Environmental Science DOI=10.3389/fenvs.2021.640530

Projected climate impacts and risks

IPCC 1.5 report – Summary for

Policy Makers (2018)
 3. What are the interactions between
climate and ecosystems?
UN Convention on Climate Change COP26, Glasgow 2021
Humanity faces the twin threats of climate change and
biodiversity loss which, together, are undermining nature’s
capacity to sustain healthy life, nutritious diets and national
economies. The two are inextricably linked and need to be
tackled together urgently, with equal ambition. 
UN Convention on Biological Biodiversity COP, Kunming 2021 -

Climate change and biodiversity loss – two side of the same coin
 The interactions between climate and
ecosystems?

Species/ecosystem distributions
and ecological processes

Climate Biodiversity
(change) (change)

Climate parameters and processes

32
Le Quéré et al., 2018 https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/10/2141/2018/
Impacts of biodiversity on climate change -
the global carbon budget (1900-2018)

Le Quéré et al., 2018

https://
essd.copernicus.org/
articles/10/2141/2018/
 Global and regional fluxes of carbon from
land use and land cover change 1850–2015

Houghton and Nassikas (2017) Global Biogeochemical Cycles 31, 456-472

Carbon content of different natural land
cover types (excluding peat layers)

Houghton and Nassikas (2017) Global Biogeochemical Cycles 31, 456-472

4. What solutions are available to the
challenge of climate change?

Mitigation - Technological change and substitution

that reduce resource inputs and emissions ……
mitigation means implementing policies to reduce
GHG emissions and enhance sinks.

Adaptation - Initiatives and measures to reduce the

vulnerability of natural and human systems
- autonomous
- planned

IPCC AR4 glossary

 Mitigation Adaptation

• Seek to maintain • Reduce exposure e.g

existing stocks of refugia;
• Reduce other pressures on
GHG; biodiversity e.g. invasive
• Decrease GHG species, pollution;
emissions through • Reduce sensitivity and
demand reduction; increase adaptive capability
• Decrease GHG e.g. size of protected areas;
emissions through • Increase adaptation
opportunity e.g. habitat
supply reduction; heterogeneity, landscape
• Increase carbon and connectivity
other GHG storage • …..
• …..    

(Morecroft et al J.Appl.Ecol, 2012)

What do we need to know for adaptation?

 Which species/habitats are vulnerable

(sensitivity/exposure)?

 What is their adaptive capacity

(capability)?

 What are their adaptation options

(opportunities)?
 Ecological components of vulnerability

Berry et al., 2013, http://www.mdpi.com/2079-7737/2/3/872

 Adaptation Adaptive capability
opportunity
  High Low

(iii) capability restricted

(i) climate resilient
modify microclimate; minimise
monitor the species; monitor
High habitat and other ecological
habitat condition and
changes; ensure availability of
availability of habitat for
food/habitat for specialists;
migration
increase population numbers

(ii) opportunity restricted

increase habitat area; increase
connectivity; remove barriers to
Low movement; reduce current
pressures; ensure availability of
food e.g. Asian elephants, African
rhinos
Berry et al., 2013 op cit
(iv) climate threatened
consider all actions for opportunity
and capability restricted species;
translocation, ex situ conservation
e.g. Sumatran rhino
Nature-based Solutions
“actions to protect, sustainably manage, and restore natural or
modified ecosystems, that address societal challenges
effectively and adaptively, simultaneously providing human
well-being and biodiversity benefits”.
(IUCN)

“
The three elements of nature-based solutions

address societal challenges

effectively and Societal
adaptively challenges

actions to Ecosystem-
NbS simultaneously
HWB &
protect, based Biodiversity providing
sustainably action human well-
manage, and being and
restore natural biodiversity
or modified benefits
ecosystems
Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) – or NbS for
climate change

Natural climate solutions are “options to mitigate climate change

by increasing carbon sequestration and reducing emissions of
carbon and other greenhouse gases through conservation,
restoration, and improved management practices in forest,
wetland, and grassland biomes”

(Griscom et al. 2017, PNAS)

Climate mitigation potential of natural climate
solutions

Griscom et al. (2019)

Climate mitigation potential of 20 “natural
climate solutions”

Griscom et al., PNAS, 2017, 114, 11645 - 11650

 National mitigation potential from
natural climate solutions in the tropics,

Griscom et al., 2020 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375, Issue: 1794, DOI: (10.1098/rstb.2019.0126)
 Systematic map of the 6 most reported climate
impacts addressed by 6 broad intervention types

Chausson et al., Glob Change Biol. 2020;26:6134–6155

 NbS – multi-functional urban green
infrastructure
Climate regulation Air quality regulation Biodiversity
• Lower summer temperatures • Remove 0.2 to 2 kg • ↑ insects, soil invertebrates
• Increased winter temperatures dust/m2 • habitat for ground nesting
(c 2oC) • Increase in pollen / birds
• Reduce wind chill - 75% allergens • ↑ movement of species
• Heating demand - 25%
• Sequester carbon (375g/m2)

Water quality provision Water flow regulation

Recreation and aesthetic services
• Improved human health and
Remove pollutants Lower runoff – ↑ 100% summer
well-being _ ↑ 50% winter
 Synergies and trade-offs in NbS for climate
NBS for climate Climate change adaptation
intervention
  Benefits
Wetland/coastal Increased water storage,
habitat decreases flood risk; increase
(re)creation habitat and associated species
Managed Increased water storage,
realignment decreased flood risk; increased
habitat and associated species,
increased urban protection
Afforestation Reduced (peak) river flow;
groundwater recharge; increased
woodland habitat, species
dependent on nature of planting
Green roofs Increased stormwater infiltration, Challenging environment for some
water flow reduction, habitat
provision, increased connectivity
Climate change mitigation
Trade-offs/Unintended Benefits Trade-offs/Unintended
consequences consequences
Change of land use; disease Increased C sequestration Increased CH4 and N2O
emissions
Loss of land, possible decreased Increased C sequestration Increased CH4 and N2O
urban protection emissions
Change of land use, increased water Increased C sequestration  
demand from trees, drainage
ditches increased peak flows in early
stages of plantations, which can
lead to pollution
Carbon sequestration,  
species reduced energy demand
through decreasing
temperatures.
Adapted from Berry et al., 2015 Climatic Change, 128:381-393
50
Climate change and biodiversity policy coming
together
UN Convention on Biological Biodiversity COP, Kunming 2021 -
Post 2020 biodiversity targets include:
Contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation and
disaster risk reduction through nature-based solutions providing
by 2030 X% of the mitigation effort needed to achieve the goals
of the Paris Agreement, complementing stringent emission
reductions, and avoiding negative impacts on biodiversity and
food security.

UN Convention on Climate Change COP26, Glasgow 2021

Humanity faces the twin threats of climate change and
biodiversity loss which, together, are undermining nature’s
capacity to sustain healthy life, nutritious diets and national
economies. The two are inextricably linked and need to be
tackled together urgently, with equal ambition. 
 Conclusions
• Climate change is and will lead to threats and
opportunities for the biosphere

• It is possible to address climate change and

biodiversity loss together

• Nature-based solutions provide one way of doing this

• They represent on opportunity for a more integrated

systems approach to climate change and biodiversity
loss 52
Thank you
Risk of terrestrial birds and mammals being
affected by climate change and habitat loss

Mantyka-Pringle et al. (2015) Biol. Conserv. 187, 103

Integrate adaptation and mitigation in
other sectors