Fuzzy Sets and Systems 62 (1994) 1-8
North-Holland
Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time
series- part II
Qiang Song
Department of Electrical Engineering, Collegeof
Engineering, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL,
USA
Brad S. Chissorn
Area of Behavioral Studies, Collegeof Education, The
University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA
Received January 1993
Revised July 1993
Abstract: This paper is the continuation of Forecasting
enrollments with fuzzy time series- Part I (Fuzzy Sets and
Systems 54 (1993) 1-10), the development of a first-order
time-invariant fuzzy time series model with application to
forecasting the enrollment of The University of Alabama. In
this paper, we are interested in applying first-order
time-variant models in forecasting the enrollment of the
same university. In doing so, the difference between
time-invariant and time-variant models is discussed. An
approach to developing time-variant models is proposed
together with a formula to calculate the model. A
step-by-step procedure is presented to develop and utilize the
time-variant model. To convert the output of the model, a
3-layer backpropagation neural network is applied. Three
different defuzzification methods are compared using the
same data. Results show that the neural network
defuzzification method yields the smallest average forecasting
error, and the less complex the model, the better the
forecasting results.
Keywords: Fuzzy time series; time-variant models; enroll-
ment forecasting; fuzzy logic; neural networks;
defuzzification.
1. Introduction
The motivation of proposing the concept of
fuzzy time series was to find ways of modeling a
special dynamic process whose observations are
linguistic values instead of numerical ones. In
this case, no traditional methodologies can be
Correspondence to: Prof. B.S. Chissom, College of
Education, The University of Alabama, PO Box 870231,
Tuscaloosa AL 35487-0231, USA.
0165-0114/94/$07.00 © 1994--Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved
SSDI: 0165-0114(93) E0211-A
1
applied. Since linguistic values can easily be
defined into fuzzy sets [18, 19], fuzzy sets theory
[17] was naturally considered to deal with this
situation and therefore the concept of fuzzy time
series was proposed [10].
One of the possible applications of fuzzy time
series is the forecasting problem in a fuzzy
environment in which historical data are
linguistic instead of numerical. In [11], a
first-order time-invariant fuzzy time series model
was developed and applied to forecast the
enrollment of The University of Alabama.
Satisfactory results were achieved. Conceptually,
the development of a time-invariant model relies
on the assumption that at any different time t,
the possible values of the fuzzy time series are
the same. In practice, this assumption can be
satisfied easily if one defines only a finite number
of fuzzy sets and applies these fuzzy sets at all
different times. In spite of this, in this paper, we
will investigate and try to develop a first-order
time-variant model. To check the feasibility of
the model, it will be used to forecast the
enrollment of the same university. To interpret
the output of the model, instead of the method
applied in [11] (called the combined method
hereafter), a three layer backpropagation neural
network is trained and applied. Finally, the
combined method, the centroid method [5] and
the neural network method are compared with
different model structures.
2. The development of a time-variant model
2.1. General description of the model
If at any time t, a fuzzy time series has the
same possible values, then we can develop a
time-invariant model to describe the evolution of
the fuzzy time series. Otherwise, we have to
develop a time-variant model. In both cases, a
 Q. Song, B.S. Chissom / Forecastingenrollments with fuzzy time series
first-order model can be expressed as follows
[101:
F(t) = t ( t - 1) o g(t, t - 1)
where o is the m i n - m a x operator and R(t, t - 1)
is the union of all the fuzzy relations between
any value fii(t - 1 ) o f F(t - 1) and any value fj(t)
of F(t). When applying a fuzzy time series model
in forecasting, it is assumed that the variable
being forecast is F(t), and thus it can be seen
that the role of R(t, t - 1) is to extrapolate from
F ( t - 1) to F(t) and hence it will be called the
extrapolation operator. If at any given time t we
can obtain only one observation, to build a
time-invariant model, we have to use all the
observations and their fuzzy relationships. In this
case it is actually assumed that F(t) has the same
possible values at any t. Therefore, the model is
independent of time t. There is the possibility
that a fuzzy time series may not have the same
possible values at different times. If this is the
case, the method to develop time-invariant
models is no longer applicable and we need to
consider alternate approaches.
It is our belief that there are many different
approaches to developing time-variant models.
Unfortunately, the definition of fuzzy time series
in [10] gives no guide as to how to develop
time-variant models. In fact, how to develop a
time-variant model with reasonably good ac-
curacy is still an unanswered problem. In this
paper, we will present one approach and verify
its feasibility through an example. In the
development of the model, the determination of
the extrapolation operator R(t, t - 1) is the key
issue. To determine R(t, t - 1), let us suppose
that we are to forecast the value of a fuzzy time
series at t with the values at t - 1, t - 2 . . . . . and
t - w ( w > l ) known. Since R(t, t - l ) is the
union of fuzzy relations, it is acceptable to
consider all the fuzzy relations hidden within the
known values and let the union of all the fuzzy
relations be R(t, t - 1). This can be expressed as
follows:
RW(t, t - 1) = f T ( t - 2) x f ( t - 1 ) u f T ( t - 3)
x f ( t -- 2)U. • • u f T ( t -- W)
x f ( t - - W + 1)
where w > 1 is a parameter of the model, f ( u ) is
the value of the fuzzy time series at time u, x
the Cartesian product, and T the transpose
operator.
In developing RW(t, t - 1), w, the number of
years before t, is an important factor. We will
(1) refer to w as the model basis. The larger the
number of years, the more observed values there
are to be obtained. It is assumed that different
values for the basis of the model will lead to
different model structures. Later in this paper,
we will consider the effect of the model basis on
forecasting precision.
Since we are dealing with time-variant models,
the procedure proposed in [11] should be
modified. For clarity, we simply describe the
overall procedure, and then provide details of
each step of the forecasting process by means of
an example. Generally, the procedure can be
stated as follows:
Step 1. Specify the universe of discourse U
within which fuzzy sets will be defined;
Step 2. Partition U into several even length
intervals;
Step 3. Define fuzzy sets on U;
Step 4. If the historical data are linguistic
values, go to Step 5; otherwise fuzzily the data
using the method in [11];
Step 5. Choose a model basis w and at a given
time t, use (2) to calculate RW(t, t - 1) and apply
(1) to forecast F(t); and
Step 6. If the output of the model in forms of
fuzzy sets in Step 5 is satisfactory, then stop,
otherwise interpret or defuzzify the output and
stop.
It can be seen that Step 5 is different from that
of [11] in that [11] considers all the historical
data to develop the model while here only some
of the data are considered. In addition, Step 6 of
[11] is now included into Step 5 for convenience
of calculation later on. Step 7 of [11] has become
Step 6 here now.
In the following example, we will implement
the above procedure through the forecasting
process.
2. 2. Specification o f the universe o f discourse U
(Step 1)
Generally, to define the universe of discourse
(2) U, find the m i n i m u m enrollment Dmi, and the
maximum enrollment Dmax from the known
historical data. Based on Dmi, and D . . . . define
U as [Dmi,- D1, Dmax+ De] where D1 and D2
are two proper positive numbers. So far, we
 Q. Song, B.S. Chissom / Forecastingenrollments withfuzzy time series

have collected historical enrollment data from 2. 5. Fuzzification of the input data (Step 4)
1971 to 1992. The minimum enrollment Drain and
the maximum enrollment Dmax are 13055 and To fuzzify the historical data, we can apply the
19 337 respectively. Therefore, we choose same method as employed in [11]. Except for the
D1=55 and D z = 6 6 3 to make U = [ 1 3 0 0 0 , enrollment data of 1991 and 1992 which were not
20 000 I. covered in [11], the rest are the same. For 1991
and 1992, the enrollments are 19 337 and 18 876
2. 3. Partitioning U into several even length respectively, which are almost equal to those of
intervals (Step 2) 1990 and 1989 respectively and therefore the
The process is the same as in [11]. We have fuzzified enrollments for 1991 and 1992 are A7
seven intervals which are and A6 (please refer to [11] for details of the
fuzzification process). All the fuzzified historical
u, = [13 000, 14 000], u2 = [14 000, 15 000],
data are listed in Table 1 where Ai (i = 1 to 7)
u3 = [15 000, 16 000], u4 = [16 000, 17 000], are defined in Section 2.4.
u5 = [17 000, 18 000], u6 = [18 000, 19 000],
u7 = [19 000, 20 000].
2. 6. Choosing a model basis w, calculating
2. 4. Defining fuzzy sets on U (Step 3) extrapolation operator RW(t, t - I) and
forecasting (Step 5)
Like [11], we will only consider seven fuzzy
sets which are A1 = (not many), A2 = (not too In this section w is set to be 4. It seems there
many), A3 = (many), A 4 = (many many), A5 = is no need of explaining why w is chosen to be 4.
(very many), A6 = (tOO many), and A7 = (too It is simply for the purpose of demonstration.
many many). To define these fuzzy sets, we can Later in this paper, we will consider the effects
use the same process as in [11]. Thus all the of different values of w on the forecasting errors.
fuzzy sets A~ ( i = 1 to 7) can be defined as Since w = 4 , we can begin with t = 1 9 7 5 so
follows: that we have 4 years' data available. To calculate
Aj = {ul/1, u2]0.5, u3/O, R4(75, 74), according to (2), we need to
determine the fuzzy relations hidden in the data.
u4/O, u5[O, u6/O, U7/0), Generally, to determine the fuzzy relations, we
Az = { U l / 0 . 5 , u2/1, u3[0.5, need to find two consecutive years' data, say, t
u4/O, u5/O, u6/O, UT/0}, and t - 1 . If the data for t is A, and At-l for
t - 1, then the fuzzy logical relationship will be
A3 = {ul/O, u2/0.5, u3/1, At_I---~A, and the fuzzy relation between A t : l
U4/0-5, US/0, U6/0, U7/0), and At will be A,Xl x A,. To apply (1) to forecast
A4 = {Ul/0, u2/O, u3/0.5, the value at t + 1, the value at t will be selected
from Ai (i = 1 to 7). This is different from [11]
U4/1, U5/0.5, u6/O, UT/0},
where the value at t was the fuzzified data in
A5 = {uJO, u2/O, U3/0, Table 1 of [11]. Here, A/ ( i = 1 to 7) is
U4/0.5, U5/1, U6/0.5, U7/0}, pre-defined in Section 2.4. The advantage of
doing so will be discussed later.
A6 = {ul/0, u2/O, u3/O, Table 1 will be used to induce fuzzy
u4/O, u5]0.5, u6/1, u7/0.5), relationships at each time t in the following
A7 = {ul/0, u2/O, u3/O, process.
To demonstrate the calculation process, only
u4/O, Us/O, U6/0.5 , U7/1}. the forecasting for 1975 will be shown below.
where u~ ( i = l to 7) is the element and the The same procedure applies to the remaining
number below / is the membership of u,- to Aj years.
(j = 1 to 7). For 1975, the fuzzy logical relationships are as
For simplicity, we will also use A1, A2 . . . . . follows (the repeated relationships are omitted)
anda 7 as row vectors whose elements are the
memberships of the corresponding fuzzy sets. A1---~AI, and AI---~ A2.
4 Q. Song, B.S. Chissom / Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series

Table 1. The fuzzifiedhistorical enrollments Table 2. Output results from 1975 to 1993

Year Actualenrollment Fuzzifiedenrollment Year Fuzzyoutput

1971 13055 At 1975 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0

1972 13 563 A1 1976 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 0
1973 13867 AI 1977 0.5 0.5 1 0.5 0 0 0
1974 14 696 Az 1978 0 0.5 1 0.5 0 0 0
1975 15460 A3 1979 0 0.5 1 0.5 0 0 0
1976 15 311 A3 1980 0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0
1977 15603 A3 1981 0 0.5 0.5 1 0.5 0 0
1978 15 861 A3 1982 0 0 0.5 1 0.5 0 0
1979 16807 A4 1983 0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0
1980 16919 A4 1984 0 0.5 1 0.5 0.5 0 O,
1981 16 388 A4 1985 0 0.5 1 0.5 0 0 0
1982 15 433 A3 1986 0 0.5 1 0.5 0 0 0
1983 15 497 A3 1987 0 0.5 1 0.5 0 0 0
1984 15 145 A3 1988 0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0
1985 15 163 A3 1989 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 0.5
1986 15 984 A3 1990 0 0 0 0 0.5 1 0.5
1987 16 859 A4 1991 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 0.5
1988 18 150 m6 1992 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 1
1989 18 970 A6 1993 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 1
1990 19 328 A7
1991 19337 A7
1992 18 876 m6 defuzzified. Unlike [11] where the fuzzy output
of the model was defuzzified or interpreted with
the combined method, in this paper, a 3-layer
Therefore, backpropagation neural network will be applied
R4(75, 74) = A 1r x A1 UA1"r x A2 to defuzzify the output of the model.
In the literature, a few research studies can be
1 1 0.50000 found which use neural networks as defuzzifiers.
0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0 In [6], Lin and Lee proposed a neural-network-
0 0 0 0 0 O0 based fuzzy control and decision system in which
0 0 0 0 0 O0 the defuzzification of the fuzzy controller is
0 0 0 0 0 O0 implemented via neural networks. Song and
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Smith [12] also proposed a scheme to defuzzify
0 0 0 0 0 O0 fuzzy sets by means of neural networks. In
Applying (1), the forecasted enrollment of 1975 addition, Yager [16] developed a framework to
is obtained as follows: implement fuzzy controllers using neural net-
works, and the defuzzification was naturally
f(75) = A2 o R4(75, 74) implemented with neural networks. Since defuz-
= (0.5, 0.5, 0.5, o, o, o, 0). zification can be treated as a mapping from a
high-dimensional space to a lower-dimensional
Following the same process, the outputs for
space, and a 3-layer backpropagation neural
the remaining years can be calculated and all the
network can learn this mapping if good samples
results are listed in Table 2.
of this mapping are provided, in theory this
approach is feasible. In [13], some properties of
2. 7. Defuzzification o f the output (Step 6)
defuzzification neural networks are discussed.
The outputs of the model from 1975 to 1993 For more details about neural networks, please
are all fuzzy sets. If the results in the form of refer to [2, 5].
fuzzy sets are satisfactory for the forecasting There are mainly two steps in applying neural
task, no further work is needed, but a numerical networks as defuzzifiers. The first one is to find
value for each forecasted enrollment is desirable good exemplars which can stand for the
in most cases. Hence, the outputs need to be relationship between the fuzzy quantities and the
 Q. Song, B.S. Chissom / Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series

Table 3. Training data for the network divided by 105 to scale them. The training data
are listed in Table 3. The second step is to feed
Input Desired some fuzzy quantities into the trained network to
output
produce outputs. Generally, the output will be
0 0 0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1 0.19328 the defuzzified values.
0 0 0 0.25 0.55 1 0.8 0.18970 Following the above principle, we trained a
0 0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1 0.7 0.18150 3-layer backpropagation network of 7 input
0 0.1 0.5 1 0.8 0.1 0 0.16859
nodes, 4 hidden nodes and 1 output node to
0 0.2 0.8 1 0.5 0 0 0.16388
0 0.1 0.5 1 0.9 0.2 0 0.16807
defuzzify the output of the model obtained in
0 0.1 0.5 1 0.9 0.2 0 0.16919 Section 2.6. The network was simulated on the
0.2 0.8 1 0.2 0 0 0 0.15311 PlaNet neural network simulation software [7].
0 0.2 1 0.7 0.2 0 0 0.15984 The learning rate was set to be 1.0 and the
0.2 0.8 l 0.2 0 0 0 0.15433
momentum 0.9. The training process halted
0 0.5 1 0.7 0.2 0 0 0.15861
0 0.6 1 0.6 0.1 0 0 0.15603 when learning epoch--7000 and learning
0.2 0.8 1 0.2 0 0 0 0.15460 error=10 -6. After the network had been
0.8 1 0.8 0.1 0 0 0 0.14696 trained, the output data obtained in Section 2.6
1 0.8 0.1 0 0 0 0 0.13563 were fed into the network and the output data of
l 0.9 0.2 0 0 0 0 0.13867
the network were taken as the defuzzified values
after multiplying by 105. In this case, the
defuzzified values are the forecasted enroll-
defuzzified values. To find good exemplars, we ments. Table 4 lists all the fuzzy outputs, their
are going to use some data in Table 1 of [11], corresponding defuzzified values and actual
i.e., the memberships will be taken as the input values. All the defuzzified values were rounded
to and the corresponding actual enrollments will to hundreds due to the limited precision of the
be taken as the desired output from the network. neural network simulation software. Note that
Note that if the output of the network is within when defuzzifying the output of the model, if the
[0, 1], then the desired output needs scaling. In maximum of the membership is less than 1, all
this paper, all the actual enrollments used are the memberships are divided by the maximum

Table 4. Output of the model and the defuzzified values

Year Output of model with w = 4 Defuzzified values Actual enrollments

by neural network

1975 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0 14 700 15 460

1976 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 14 800 15 311
1977 0.5 0.5 1 0.5 0 0 0 15 400 15 603
1978 0 0.5 1 0.5 0 0 0 15 500 15 861
1979 0 0.5 1 0.5 0 0 0 15 500 16 807
1980 0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 16 800 16 919
1981 0 0.5 0.5 1 0.5 0 0 16 200 16 388
1982 0 0 0.5 1 0.5 0 0 16 400 15 433
1983 0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 16 800 15 497
1984 0 0.5 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 16400 15 145
1985 0 0.5 1 0.5 0 0 0 15 500 15 163
1986 0 0.5 1 0.5 0 0 0 15 500 15 984
1987 0 0.5 1 0.5 0 0 0 15 500 16 859
1988 0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 16 800 18 150
1989 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 0.5 19 300 18 970
1990 0 0 0 0 0.5 1 0.5 17 800 19 328
1991 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 0.5 19 300 19 337
1992 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 1 19 600 18 876
1993 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 1 19 600
 Q. Song, B.S. Chissom Forecastingenrollments with fuzzy time series

2
lo' Table 5. Average forecasting errors in percent with different
w's and methods
Actual enrollment r, / - ~ _ ~-
w Neural net Combined method Centroid method
1.9 .... Forecastedenrollment,w=2 ~ ~ /
method [11]
I.~ . . . . Forecastedenrollment,w=4 // \1i` t
2 3.15 3.76 3.44
I--
3 3.89 4.47 4.47
zm 1.7
4 4.37 4.25 4.46
--' ',. I.
5 4.41 4.34 4.55
O1.6 " - j" 6 4.49 4.50 4.69
It/
7 4.35 5.10 4.82
1.5 8 4.45 5.00 5.20
9 4.23 5.10 5.29
1.4 /

t.3 19'8o '

1985 '
1990 3. Effects of the model basis w
YEARS

Fig. 1. Curves of the actual enrollment and the forecasted To see the relationship between w and the
enrollment. average forecasting errors, w was increased by 1
from 2 to 9 and the corresponding average
membership. In Table 4, the maximum member- forecasting errors were computed with three
ships for some outputs are less than 1. Before different defuzzification methods. Table 5 lists
feeding the output memberships into the the results.
network, they were divided by their maximum It can be seen from Table 5 that almost the
membership. The reason for doing so is that same relationship exists between w and the
when used as defuzzifiers the network works as a average forecasting errors for these three
pattern recognizer. That is, it attempts to match different defuzzification methods. It can be seen
the input with the trained samples. Since all the that generally when w increases, the average
training samples have 1 as their maximum, forecasting error also increases. When w = 2, the
better defuzzification results could be obtained error reaches its minimum, implying that less
when each output of the model has 1 as the complex fuzzy time series models may be more
maximum. The trained network was also used to appropriate than more complex ones. It can also
defuzzify the outputs of models with different be seen that, on the average, the neural network
model basis values, which will be discussed in defuzzification method yields the best forecasting
Section 3. results, and the combined method is slightly
To evaluate the forecasting model and the more effective than the centroid method.
defuzzification effect, the average forecasting
error I was computed. The model and the
defuzzification procedure yielded an average 4. Concluding remarks and discussions
forecasting error of 4.37% with an error range
from 0.2% to 8.28%. When compared to the In this paper, we proposed an approach to
average forecasting error in [11], this forecasting developing time-variant fuzzy time series mod-
error is somewhat larger. But compared to the els, and as an example presented the process of
forecasting errors reported in [1, 3, 4, 8, 9, 14, forecasting the enrollment for The University of
15], the results indicate that the model Alabama with the model developed. To
developed here is acceptable. Figure 1 shows the defuzzify the output of the model, a 3-layer back
curves of the actual enrollment and the propagation neural network was trained and
forecasted enrollments with w = 4 and w = 2 used as the defuzzifier. It was found that of the
respectively. three different defuzzification methods, the
Average Forecasting Error = (sum of forecasting
neural network method yielded the best result.
errors)/(total # of errors), Forecasting Error = (lIorecasted But there are some conditions for applying
value-actual valuel/actual value) x 100%. neural networks as defuzzifiers. Since neural
 Q. Song, B.S. Chissom / Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series
networks function as pattern recognizers in this
case, they attempt to match the input patterns
with those of the learned samples. The more
similar the inputs and the samples, the more
likely good defuzzification effects will result. Our
experience tells us that if good samples cannot
be obtained, one must be cautious when using
neural networks as defuzzifiers.
The difference between the time-invariant and
the time-variant models is that the development
of time-invariant models assumes that all the
possible values of the fuzzy time series are the
same at any time, while that of the time-variant
models does not. Therefore, it is possible that at
different times, the time-variant model can be
different for the same fuzzy time series. In the
case of time-variant fuzzy time series, how to
develop a model with reasonably good accuracy
is still an unanswered problem. We believe there
exist many different methods to solve this
problem. Although the approach proposed here
is workable, it is not the ultimate one we are
looking for. There is still a lot of work to do on
this aspect.
One application area of fuzzy time series
models is the forecasting problem in a fuzzy
environment in which numerical historical data
cannot be obtained and only linguistic data are
available. The results of this paper and [11] show
that the fuzzy time series model is a good tool to
deal with such a forecasting problem. Unfortun-
ately, the historical data in our study were
numerical, which cannot be applied directly with
fuzzy time series models. In order to utilize the
fuzzy time series model, we had to first fuzzily
the data and then use the fuzzified data to
develop the model. In practice, if the historical
data are linguistic ones, we suggest application
of the following procedure:
(1) estimate the universe of discourse U;
(2) on U, define fuzzy sets using the linguistic
values;
(3) if a first-order time-invariant model is
needed, determine all the fuzzy logic relations
hidden in the data; otherwise choose a proper
model basis w and use Step 5 to calculate the
extrapolation operator RW(t, t - 1) as described
in this paper. Use the fuzzy sets to forecast; and
(4) defuzzify the output of the models if
needed.
In Section 2.6 of this paper, we mentioned
7
that the pre-defined membership functions A i
(i = 1 to 7) were used for forecasting. The
advantage of doing so is that since Ai is
pre-defined, the procedure is equivalent to using
the historical linguistic values both for modelling
and forecasting. So, using Ai is more realistic
than [11].
We have been using enrollment data to
indicate how to apply the concepts and methods
of fuzzy time series. Since all the proposed
procedures and models are universal, it is our
belief that the fuzzy time series can be applied
wherever there are dynamic processes with
linguistic values as their observations. Even if
the processes have numerical values as their
observations, as the results in this paper and in
[11] have shown, fuzzy time series is still a
competitive method. We are expecting to see
more applications and theoretical refinements of
fuzzy time series in the future.
Acknowledgement
The authors wish to thank the referees for
their constructive comments and suggestions
which helped to revise this paper.
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