COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS REPORT FOR GDP

FY 20 FY 19 FY 18

Quarter Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1

Growth Rate 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.6 5.83 6.6 7.0 8.0 8.13 7.69 6.77 5.99
% (estimate
)

REPORT
Forecast changes in GDP FY 21 Q1:

COMPARITIVE ANALYSIS PREVIOUS YEAR

FY 20 – Q4 vs Q3: Contrary to the expectations, December quarter FY 20 was not the one
that saw end of slowdown. The centre accounts GDP projections for the FY 2019-20, Q4 to
further slip to 4.6%. India’s GDP for Q3 was 4.7%. This is because of the pandemic, corona
virus outbreak. Analysts warned against the impact of coronavirus on global and Indian
economy. While the impact of coronavirus on global markets has worried economists around
the globe, no one is sure about how much damage it could cause to the global economy.

FY 20 - Q4 vs FY 19 - Q4: The lockdown situation in Q4 of FY-20 made the economic

activity to slow down which affected tax collections, the possibility that the government may
not achieve even the revised target is very much. On the other hand, expenditures kept rising
due to various costs arising from the virus containment efforts and enforcing the lockdown.
Government made predictions on the GDP for Q4 of FY-20 to be at 4.6%. And the GDP
growth rate in Q4 of FY-19 was 5.83%. Clearly there is a decline in the growth rate of GDP.
However in spite of the global lockdown and decline in GDP, Q4 of FY-20 saw growth in
sectors like mining and manufacturing activity for some time. IIP saw growth rate of 3.2 per
cent in February 2020 compared to a contraction of 0.3 per cent in February 2019. On the
other hand, the industry group 'Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers' has
shown the highest negative growth of (-)15.6 per cent followed by (-)14.8 per cent in
‘Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products', and (-)9.9 per cent in
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment.

FY 20 – Q3 vs Q2: The Indian economy continued to remain sluggish in the three months
ended December 2019. The pace of growth fell sharply in the third quarter when compared to
the revised growth during the second quarter. India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.7
percent in the October-December quarter of 2019-20. GDP growth in the previous quarter has
been revised to 5.1 percent. The official Q3 GDP data showed that the impact of a global
slowdown and weak manufacturing continued to weigh on the economy. According to the
estimates, farm sector grew at 3.5 percent compared to 4.3 percent in the previous quarter.
The CSO projected that the manufacturing sector saw contraction of 0.2 percent in 2019-20
against -0.1 percent in Q2 while mining and quarrying grew at 3.2 percent against 0.1 percent
in Q3. In gross value added terms, the economy grew at 4.5 percent in Q3, compared to a
revised 4.8 percent in Q2.
In comparison with Q2, Private consumption reflected in private final consumption
expenditure, rose by 5.86 percent in Q3. Investments, as measured by gross fixed capital
formation, fell 5.16 percent in Q3. Government final consumption expenditure rose by 11.8
percent in Q3. The agriculture sector grew at 3.5 percent in Q3, compared to 3.1 percent in
Q2. Mining sector growth stood at 3.2 percent in Q3 compared to 0.2 percent in the previous
quarter. Manufacturing contracted at 0.2 percent in Q3, compared to a contraction of 0.4
percent in Q2. Electricity and other public utilities contracted by 0.7 percent in Q3, as against
3.9 percent in Q2. The financial services sector grew at 7.3 percent in Q3 compared to 7.1
percent in the previous quarter.
The sharp contraction in gross fixed capital formation in Q3 FY20 underscores the tepid
investment sentiment, as well as the decline in capital spending by the state governments, a
fallout of their fiscal constraints.

FY 20 – Q3 vs FY 19 – Q3: The growth rate of GDP kept declining from Q3 of FY 19.

During the quarter the GDP rate declined to 6.6% from 7% and 8% in Q2 and Q1 of FY 19
respectively. However the economy saw further decline in the growth rate of GDP in FY 20.
In Q3 of FY 20, the growth rate had declined to 4.7%. In gross value added terms, the
economy grew at 4.5 percent in Q3 of FY 20 compared to 6.8% in Q3 of FY 19.
The agriculture sector grew at 3.5 percent in Q3 of FY 20, while the growth in this sector was
2.7% in FY 19. The growth in the GVA at Basic Prices for FY 19, Q3 from ‘Mining and
Quarrying’ sector was 1.2 percent compared to 3.2% in FY 20. The growth in the GVA at
Basic Prices for FY 19 Q3 from ‘Manufacturing’ sector was 6.7 percent with IIP from
manufacturing sector registering a growth rate of 4.7 percent. While in FY 20, manufacturing
sector contracted at 0.2 percent in Q3.
Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q3 FY 19 from ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other
Utility Services’ sector grew by 8.2% as compared to growth of 0.7% in Q3 of FY 20.
Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q3 FY 19 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 9.6% as
compared to growth of 0.3% in Q3 of FY20. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q3 FY 19
from ‘Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services’ sector grew by 7.3% as same as in Q3
FY 20. Government final consumption expenditure rose by 11.8 percent in Q3 FY 20, while
the consumption expenditure rose by 10.6% in Q3 FY 19.
The decline in economic growth came on the back of dwindling consumer demand, slowing
private investment and global slowdown.

FY 20 – Q2 vs Q1: The economy saw further deterioration in the growth of India's GDP to
5.1 per cent in Q2 from 5.6 per cent in Q1 of FY2020, due to weakening momentum in
industry. With subdued domestic demand, investment activity, and non-oil merchandise
exports weighing upon volume expansion, manufacturing growth decelerated further from the
marginal 0.6 percent in Q1 of FY2020 to 0.4 per cent in Q2. Heavy rainfall in August-
September of 2019 along with the delayed withdrawal of the monsoon and constrained
activities in the mining and construction sectors also contributed to a lower demand for
electricity from the agricultural and household sectors. In addition to that, muted industrial
activity reduced the demand for electricity generation.
Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 from ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector grew
by 2.0 percent as compared to growth of 3.1 per cent in Q2. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices
for Q1 from ‘Mining and Quarrying’ sector grew by 2.7 percent as compared to growth of 0.2
percent in Q2. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 5.7
percent as compared to growth of 2.9 percent in Q2. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1
from Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services Related to Broadcasting sector
grew by 7.1 percent as compared to growth of 5.8 percent in Q2. Quarterly GVA at Basic
Prices for Q1 from Public Administration, Defence and Other Services sector grew by 8.5
percent as compared to growth of 10.1 percent in Q2.
Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 from Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services
sector grew by 5.9 percent as compared to growth of 7.1 percent in Q2. Quarterly GVA at
Basic Prices for Q1 from ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ sector
grew by 8.6 percent as compared to growth of 3.9 percent in Q2.

FY 20 – Q2 vs FY 19 – Q2: The National Statistical Office (NSO) estimated the growth rate
of GDP for Q2 of FY 19 to be 7% and the GDP growth rate for Q2 FY 20 to be 5.1%. Weak
domestic demand and sentiment, regulatory uncertainty and concerns about the health of the
non-banking financial sector were some of the reasons fuelling this downward spiral.
Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 FY 20 from ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector
grew by 2.1 percent as compared to growth of 4.9 percent in Q2 FY 19.
Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 FY 20 from ‘Mining and Quarrying’ sector grew by
0.1 percent as compared to growth of -2.2 percent in Q2 FY 19. The key indicators of Mining
sector, namely, production of Coal, Crude Oil and Natural Gas and IIP Mining registered
growth rates of (-) 10.3 percent, (-) 5.1 percent, (-) 2.6 percent and (-) 1.2 percent, during Q2
of FY 20 as compared to 6.2 percent, (-) 4.4 percent, (-) 2.0 percent and 0.9 percent
respectively, during Q2 of FY 19. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 FY 20 from
‘Manufacturing’ sector grew by (-)1 percent as compared to growth of 6.9 percent in Q2 FY
19.
Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 FY 20 from ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other
Utility Services’ sector grew by 3.6 percent as compared to growth of 8.7 percent in Q2 FY
19. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered growth rate of 0.4
percent during Q2 of FY 20 as compared to 7.5 percent in Q2 of FY 19. Quarterly GVA at
Basic Prices for Q2 FY 20 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 3.3 percent as compared to
growth of 8.5 percent in Q2 FY 19. Key indicators of Construction sector, namely,
production of Cement and Consumption of finished Steel registered growth rates of 0.3
percent and 3.3 percent respectively, during Q2 of FY 20 as compared to 12.5 percent, 9.9
percent respectively, in Q2 of FY 19. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 FY 20 from
Public Administration, Defence and Other Services sector grew by 11.6 percent as compared
to growth of 8.6 percent in Q2 FY 19. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union
Government Revenue Expenditure net of Interest Payments excluding Subsidies, grew by
33.9 percent during Q2 of FY 20 as compared to 22.2 percent in Q2 of FY 19.

FY 20 – Q1 vs FY 19 – Q4: The Indian economy continued to slow down in the April-June

quarter (Q1) of FY 20, as private consumption in the economy weakened further. Gross
domestic product rose by 5.6 percent in the first quarter of 2019-20 compared to 5.83 percent
in the previous quarter. In gross value added terms, the economy grew at 4.9 percent in the
Q1 of FY 20 compared to 5.7 percent in Q4 of FY 19. With inflation and real growth
remaining low, nominal GDP growth fell to 8 percent in the first quarter of FY20, the lowest
in nearly a decade.
Industrial growth was dragged down by manufacturing, mining and construction.
Manufacturing growth, which also has a bearing on employment, saw growth fall to 0.6
percent. Among the services sectors, financial services saw a sharp slowdown in growth,
while the trade and transport segment saw stronger growth compared to the preceding
quarter. Agriculture grew at 2 percent in Q1 of FY 20 compared to a contraction of 0.1
percent in the fourth quarter of FY 19. The mining and quarrying sector growth stood at 2.7
percent in FY 20 Q1 compared to 4.2 percent in FY 19 Q4. Manufacturing grew at 0.6
percent in Q1 of FY 20 compared to 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter of FY 19.
Electricity and other public utilities grew by 8.6 percent in Q1 FY 20 as against 4.3 percent
last quarter FY 19. Construction grew at 5.7 percent in Q1 FY 20 compared to 7.1 percent in
Q4 FY 19. Trade, hotel, transport, communication growth stood at 7.1 percent in Q1 FY 20
compared to 6 percent in the last quarter of FY 19. The financial services sector grew at 5.9
percent in Q1 FY 20 compared to 9.5 percent in the fourth quarter of FY 19. The public
administration segment grew at 8.5 percent in Q1 FY 20 as against a growth of 10.7 percent
in Q4 FY 19.
Private consumption, reflected in private final consumption expenditure grew by 3.1 percent
in Q1 FY 20 compared to 7.2 percent in Q4 FY 19. Investments, as reflected by gross fixed
capital formation, grew at 4.4 percent in Q1 FY 20 as against 3.6 percent in Q4 FY 19.
Government final consumption expenditure, grew by 8.8 percent in Q1 FY 20, compared to a
growth of 13.1 percent in Q4 FY 19.

FY 20 – Q1 vs FY 19 – Q1: The growth of GDP has declined largely due to low growth in
manufacturing and construction sector. The slowdown of Indian economy has been triggered
by a mix of both internal as well as external factors such as synchronised global slowdown,
demonetisation, poor implementation of GST, plummeting domestic automobile sales,
flattening of core sector growth and declining investment in construction and infrastructure.
Also High inflation, fuelled by rising crude prices, had stoked the slowdown.
Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 FY 20 from ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector
grew by 2.0 percent as compared to growth of 5.1 percent in Q1 FY 19. Quarterly GVA at
Basic Prices for Q1 FY 20 from ‘Mining and Quarrying’ sector grew by 2.7 percent as
compared to growth of 0.4 percent in Q1 FY 19. The key indicators of Mining sector,
namely, Production of Coal, Crude Oil & Natural Gas and IIP Mining registered growth rates
of 2.7 percent, (-) 6.8 percent, (-)0.5 percent and 3.0 percent respectively, during Q1 of FY 20
as compared to 12.9 percent, (-) 2.4 percent, 0.1 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, during
Q1 of FY 19. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 FY 20 from ‘Manufacturing’ sector grew
by 0.6 percent as compared to growth of 12.1 percent in Q1 FY 19.
Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 FY 20 from ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other
Utility Services’ sector grew by 8.6 percent as compared to growth of 6.7 percent in Q1 FY
19. The key indicator of this sector, namely IIP of Electricity, registered growth rate of 7.2
percent during Q1 FY 20 as compared to 4.9 percent in Q1 FY 19. Quarterly GVA at Basic
Prices for Q1 FY 20 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 5.7 percent as compared to growth
of 9.6 percent in Q1 FY 19. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 FY 20 from Financial,
Real Estate and Professional Services sector grew by 5.9 percent as compared to growth of
6.5 percent in Q1 FY 19. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 FY 20 from this sector grew
by 8.5 percent as compared to growth of 7.5 percent in Q1 FY 1