THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON WATER RESOURCES IN

NASARAWA LGA NASARAWA STATE, NIGERIA.

BY

ALIYU HARUNA AWAISU

09060608191
aliyuharunaawaisu@gmail.com
Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of general Studies, Federal
Polytechnic Nasarawa

BEING A PAPER PRESENTED AT THE 8TH NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF SCHOOL

OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES, FEDERAL POLYTECHNIC, NASARAWA.
 ABSTRACT

Climate variability manifests itself through the medium of water by influencing rainfall,
temperature and evaporation characteristics. This will lead to changes in the rainfall pattern
which will affect the human development by decreasing the water for crop and livestock,
pasture, soil quality and water content and variably reduction in economic activities. The
research, therefore, focuses on the impact of climate variability on water resources in order to
re-strategize the water resources sector for economic prospects in the local government area.
The data used for the research findings are mostly from primary and secondary sources. The
data obtained are for temperature and rainfall of over a period of 30 years. The result obtained
clearly shows 2% variation in rainfall which means there is reduction in rainfall variation in the
area under study. The temperature variation is increasing at 8% per annum. Therefore, the
study concludes that increase in rivers flows increases the water level resulting in low water
quality, weed infestation as a result of human activities. Temperature and precipitation influence
the hydrological cycle which affects evaporation pattern, low water storage due to evaporation.
The recommendation from the study includes providing early warnings on rainfall onset and
cessation should be made for planning purposes by the Nigerian meteorological services.

KEY: climate, Precipitation, Temperature, Rainfall, IPCC, Variability, NIMET

1.0 Introduction

Fluctuation in the rainfall pattern have affected the human development in Africa by decreasing

the water for crop and animal, pasture, soil fertility and water content and socio - economic

activities. According to Enete (2008), Nigeria has a relative abundance of water; however, the

water is not evenly distributed across the country, and water availability varies both between

years and with the changing seasons. As a result, most regions of the country have experienced

water-related problems, such as shortages (droughts), excess (floods) and associated water

quality issues as climate variability increasingly threatens the supply of portable water through

artificial infrastructure, as well as water-related ecosystem services.

Despite the abundance of both surface and underground water in most communities, Nasarawa

L.G.A, the residents still suffer scarcity and the commodity is in short supplied in most parts of

the state (Adebayo etal, 1999). It is as a result of the above mentioned problems that the research

will focus on the impact of climate variability on water resources in Nasarawa L.G.A as this will

help in checking the rate of rainfall and temperature variations within the study area and how it

affects water resources.

Advance weather condition such as strong winds and climate variability affect agriculture in a

number of ways, which includes uncertainties in the begining of the farming season, due to

changes in rainfall characteristics which can lead to an usual sequence of crop plants and

replanting which may also result in food shortages due to harvest failure, and that is a major

problem in the study area. Therefore, there is the need to re-strategize on ways of improving the

stated problems so that adequate food production can be maximized with less stress.
1.1 Statement of the Problem

Climate variability has been one of the most engaging environmental issues of debate in recent

times. Indeed, the environmental problems associated with the potential impacts may prove to be

among the major environmental problems facing many countries. Assessments reported in IPCC-

WGII (2007), shows that the population at risk of increased water stress across Africa for the full

range of SRES scenarios is projected to be 75-250 million and 300-600 million 2020s and 2050s,

respectively. This current population trends and pattern of water used shows that more African

countries will exceed the limits of their economically usable land based water resources before

2025.

Precipitation extremes such as heavy rain condition have become more intense in Nigeria for
the past 50 years and are projected to become more frequent and severe (Adefolalu, 2000).
Available records show that droughts and water shortages are longer and more severe in
drought prone regions. Climate change is projected to cause major changes in yearly and
seasonal precipitation and water flow, flooding and coastal erosion risks, water quality, and the
distribution of species and ecosystems (Adefolalu, 2000; WHO Europe, 2008).

In Nigeria, it is well known that climate varies in time and space, and it will continue to vary in

future (Ojo et al., 2003). Variations in rainfall for different climatic regions and individual

locations in Nigeria have occurred, In Nasarawa State, which is the study area, while observed

rainfall pattern appears to be increasing and this also include the temperature pattern.

Therefore, understanding of climate variability and its impact on water resources within

Nasarawa L.G.A. is important as it will provide a better understanding of water resources

available for agriculture and domestic purposes within the study area.
This study attempts to fill this gap with the use of available data to assess the extent of variability

of mean annual temperature and rainfall within a period of thirty (30) years (1981-2011) and in

order to identify adaptation measures that can be adopted to reduce these impacts.

1.3 The study Area

The study area is Nasarawa local government of Nasarawa state is situated on the southern fringe
approximately between latitude 8-9o north and longitude 7-8oeast. The town is situated thirty-
eight kilometres from Keffi and is about 150km from Lafia. Agriculture is the main stay of the
economy as different varieties of agricultural produce are planted and harvested during the rainy
season such as vegetables, onions, maize, Shea butter, yams, etc. the major source of water for
agricultural activities is rainfall ( Rain fed Agriculture).

1.4 Climate of the Study Area

The tropical climate is dominant within the study area; precipitation varies ranging from

1200mm in the rainy season with about 90% of it falling from day to October. The dry season

occurs when easterly winds blow from Sahara desert across Nigeria in south westerly direction

which brings in the cold harmattan winds with little or no rainfall. The annual temperature in the

region is 24.4OC. It is hot during the day and moderately warm at night which creates a high rate

of evaporation and increases the demand for water. The two seasons are influenced by the

movement of air masses namely the tropical maritime air masses which is moist and warm and

move across the country from the Atlantic Ocean in the southwesterly direction that leads to

rainfall. The tropical continental air masses originate in the Sahara deserts and move from the

northeasterly direction across the study area and it leads to dry season.

1.3.6 Hydrology and Water Resources in Nasarawa State

Nasarawa State is well endowed with enormous water resources both surface and underground

are drained by many rivers whose sources are mostly from the north central Plateau. The regime
of the rivers is characterized by seasonal variations. The smaller streams are seasonal and

intermittent while the larger streams are perennial in nature. Flooding is common because of

torrential rain falls, which tend to seal up soil pores and reduce infiltration capacity, thus causing

accelerated runoff. The rivers transport a lot of materials in suspension, which affect colour and

turbidity (Adebayo etal, 1999).

Surface water abounds in the study area in the form of streams and rivers. The northern part of

the state has a greater distribution network of this, partly because most of the rivers and streams

take their source from area. The rainfall occurring in the study area is adequate to sustain the

production of a variety of crops of which the state is reckoned for. The slight variation in rainfall

between north and southern parts of the state does not affect the types of crops grown in the zone.

The research, therefore, seeks answers to the following assumptions:

i. Climatic variability affects the trends of rainfall and temperature distribution in

Nasarawa L.G.A of Nasarawa State.

ii. Effective adaptation options can mitigate the impact of climate variability on water

resources in Nasarawa L.G.A of Nasarawa State.

1.3 Aim and Objective of the Study

The aim of this study is to examine the implication of climate variability on the area under study

in terms of rainfall and temperature characteristics. The specific objectives of the study is to

assess the extent of Climate Variability within the study area using mean monthly and annual

rainfall and temperature data covering a period of 30 years (1981-2011).

2.0 Literature Review

Climate variability occurs as a result of variations to components of the climatic systems.

Processes in the atmosphere interact strongly with those on land, and in the oceans, as well as

with the cryosphere (those parts of the earth covered with ice) and biosphere. In this respect, the

increases of atmospheric concentrations of trace gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous

oxide, tropospheric ozone, the CFCs and others due to human activities enhance the earth’s

natural greenhouse effect and lead to global warming.

The most dominant climate drivers for water availability are precipitation, temperature and

evaporative demand (determined by net radiation at the ground, atmospheric humidity and

temperature). As the temperature of the atmosphere rises in response to global warming, the

saturation deficit increases, and therefore the warmer atmosphere can contain more moisture. As

a consequence, the main greenhouse gases and water vapour will increase, and will result in a

positive feedback in global warming.

2.1 Changes in Precipitation and Atmospheric Moisture

Temperature change causes alteration in relative humidity, vapor pressure and evaporation from

land and water bodies and this relation is largely nonlinear (FAO, 1998, p.40). Increasing

temperatures generally result in an increase in the water holding capacity of the atmosphere that

leads to change in precipitation pattern and increase in atmospheric moisture (IPCC, 2001b).

Warmer temperatures could lead to more active hydrological cycle and changes in atmospheric

circulation (IPCC, 2001c).

Generally, most floods are caused by a torrential downpour i.e. high intensity rainfall (ibid).

Therefore, it is difficult to get a real picture of changes in flood frequency from the GCM studies

without having a real picture of precipitation.

Inability to predict and manage rainfall, and consequent runoff, variability is a major factor to

food insecurity, poverty and low economic development, and is likely to be exacerbated by

climate change in most parts of Africa. Under these situations, relatively small volume of water

storage can safeguard domestic supply and support crops and livestock during dry season;

significantly raise agricultural and economic productivity and enhance people’s standard of

leaving. However, in African countries, the climate and socio-economic situation vary

significantly and will be affected by climate variability in a many ways. Hence, storage options

need to be carefully observed to suit exact needs (McCartney et al. 2011).

According to Okali (2004), Nigeria’s vulnerability to climate variability was attributed to its

location on the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends which

limited its capacity to adapt to change. Therefore, Nigeria’s high vulnerability to climate

variability is due to its geographical location – on the tropics and along coastline, and her low

levels of awareness, human and financial resources; institutional and technological capabilities.

3.0 Research Methodology

This section discusses the materials used for the study as well as data collection method, their

source and length of records. Also problems encountered in the process of sourcing for data for

the research work will be discussed. Appropriate statistical techniques used in solving problems

will also be discussed.

3.1 Climatic Data

The data collected for the purpose of the research are mainly obtained from secondary sources.

Data obtained for the research work is from the Lower Benue River basin Makurdi, in Benue

State. The river basin has a record of data collected for daily minimum and maximum

temperature, amount of rainfall were collected, covering a period of 30 years (1981- 2011) and

the respective month and mean annual were calculated. Four main stations were established in

the zone which were recognized as areas that were within the lower Benue basin.

The Akwanga meteorological station provided information for areas covering Keffi, Akwanga,

and Nasarawa L.G.A. The temperature and precipitation records were collected and analyzed in

order to identify the changes in rainfall and temperature characteristics over the study area.

4.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The analyses of mean annual climate data and mean monthly climatic data for Nasarawa L.G.A

are presented in this subsection.

The two most important, most variable and fastest changing climatic elements which influence

other elements and have the greatest impacts on water resources are rainfall and temperature. The

mean annual maximum rainfall trend of Nasarawa from 1981 – 2011 (a thirty-year period)

reveals that rainfall within the area and its environs has been very variable from year to year as

shown in Figure 4.1.

 160
RAINFALL (MM) 140
120
100 f(x) = 0.24 x − 371.23
80 R² = 0.02
60
40
20
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

YEARS

Figure 4.1: Mean Annual Rainfall Trend of Nasarawa Area (1981 – 2011)

Source: field survey,(2014)

The trend and variability is clearly at 2% which means that the variation in rainfall for the period

of study is minimal and has less impact of the rainfall characteristics of the area under study. The

variations are two extremely high peaks of 1458mm and 1812mm in 1993 and 2006 respectively.

The rainfall trend from the graph shows that the variation for the years with low rainfall

characteristics is more pronounced in 1985, 1990, 2003 and 2004 with mean values of 74.22mm,

81.25mm, 86.13mm and 84.58mm respectively.

This is supported by Buba (2009) whose work revealed downward trends in rainfall in most of

the weather stations distributed over northern Nigeria, where Nasarawa State is located, and that

the rainfall is characterized by irregular variations in both time and space.

4.2: Deviation From Mean Maximum Rainfall Trend of Nasarawa (1981-2011)

The trend analysis of the rainfall of Nasarawa from 1981 – 2011 (a thirty year period) shows

marked deviations from the mean of the study period. The deviations are shown graphically in

Figure 4.2. The trend and variability of Nasarawa shows marked deviations from the mean of

(1229.7mm) the study period. The deviations are shown graphically in Figure 4.2.

The rainfall deviations of Nasarawa area from 1981 – 2011 (figure 4.2) computed from the mean

annual (1229.7mm) reveal that within the 30 year period, rainfall was lower than the mean

annual (negative deviations) in 19 years with the greatest deviations recorded in 1985 (-

339.1mm), 1990 (-260.7mm) 1992 (-314.7 mm) and 2003 (-196.1mm) while 12 years had above

mean annual rainfall (positive deviations) with the greatest deviations recorded in 1987

(108.1mm), 1993 (228.3mm), 1994 (213.3 mm), and 2006 (582.3 mm).

800

600
RAINFALL (MM)

400

200

0 f(x) = 2.85 x − 5690.19

R² = 0.02

YEARS

Figure 4.2: Deviation From Mean Annual Maximum Rainfall Trend of Nasarawa

Source: field work, (2014)

4.3 Mean Annual Maximum Temperature of Nasarawa (1981-2011)

The trend analysis of mean annual maximum temperature of Nasarawa and environs from 1981

to 2011 (a thirty year period) shows that temperature is not only variable but also generally

rising. The trend is graphically represented by the Figure 4.3.

Trend analysis of mean annual maximum temperature of Nasarawa and its environs from 1981 to

2011 (a thirty-year period) shows that temperature is not only variable but also generally rising at

8% per annum. Figure 4.3 graphically reveals that the temperature in Nasarawa during the

period under review has been more or less on the increase with more annual average

temperatures above the mean annual (33.0°C) in recent years than the earlier years. It shows that

temperature of the area never fell below 31°C. High positive temperatures deviations were

recorded in 1983, 1984, 1990, 1993, 2000 and 2011 with mean deviation values of 1.31, 1.14,

1.04, 1.46, 1.1 and 1.63 respectively.

Buba (2009), found out that at the beginning of 1970s, there has been a general temperature

change in Northern Nigeria, with temperatures showing an increase (significant at the 95%

confidence level) everywhere in northern Nigeria and agreeing with IPCC’s fourth assessment

report (2007a) which stated that from the 1970s to the present day, all decades have been hotter

than the average of the previous 100 years with records showing that global linear warming trend

over the last 50 years of 0.13°C (0.10°C to 0.16°C) per decade is nearly twice than that of the last

100 years.
 35

TEMPERATURE (0c)
34

33 f(x) = − 0.03 x + 96.59

R² = 0.08
32

31

30

29
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

YEARS

Figure 4.3: Mean Annual Maximum Temperature of Nasarawa (1981-2011)

Source: field survey (2018).

4.4: Deviation from Mean Annual Maximum Temperature Nasarawa (1981-2011)

The trend analysis of the deviation from mean annual maximum temperature trend of Nasarawa

from 1981 – 2011 (a thirty year period) shows marked positive and negative deviations from the

mean of the study period; with more consecutive positive deviations (temperature increase) being

recorded in recent years. The deviations are shown graphically in Figure 4.5.
 2
1.5
TEMPERATURE (0c) 1
0.5
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
-0.5
-1

-1.5
-2

YEARS

Figure 4.5: Deviation From Mean Annual Maximum Temperature of Nasarawa( 1981-2011)

Source: field work. (2018)

The trend and deviation from mean annual maximum temperature of Nasarawa is graphically

shown in figure 4.5 showing marked positive and negative deviations from the mean annual

(33.0°C) of the study period. The deviations are shown graphically with more consecutive

positive deviations (temperature increase) being recorded in recent years.

The temperature records of Nasarawa from 1981 – 2011 (Thirty -years) were also analyzed on

decade basis. The average mean annual maximum temperature from 1981 -1990 (10 years) was

33.52°C. From 1991 – 2000; the average maximum temperature decrease to 32.67°C, implying

that the decade was 0.85°C hotter than the previous decade. Between 2001 and 2011, average

maximum temperature increased to 32.88°C, which implies that the decade was 0.21°C hotter

than the previous decade.

From the analyses above, it can been said that temperatures increase in the rivers and reservoirs

coupled with increased in sediment and nutrient inputs and increased in atmospheric carbon

dioxide levels may raise the likelihood of nuisance algae blooms, weeds, pest fish or other

unwanted organisms in the future. This may result to possible effect on the quality of water

distributed throughout the zone. Serious weed infestations or algae blooms may probably lead to

increase in pH and dissolved oxygen regimes, with possible impact on domestic water resources

in the zone (Quinn et al, 1990).

5.0 Conclusion and Recommendations

Conclusion

Water is one of the most in important resources in Nigeria, but changes in climatic variables,

such as temperature and precipitation, have greatly influenced the hydrological cycle, and

changes in the variables will affect runoff and evaporation patterns, as well as the amount of

water stored in lakes, rivers, wetlands, soil moisture and groundwater in the study area. Observed

climatic trends in the local government area includes rising temperature, reduced precipitation,

shortened duration of wet season, late onset and early cessation of rainfall.

The general consequences of the climatic variability in the water sector in Nasarawa L.G.A. as

revealed by the study include: early drying up of wells and also streams, more frequent tap

failures due to excessive demand for water, dwindling income to purchase sachet water and

water from vendors, emergence of water borne infections in wells.

Recommendations

On the basis of these findings, the following recommendations are made:

1. Water pollution though not a serious problem in Nasarawa State should be guided against

domestic discharge and urban runoff which contribute towards lowering water quality in

the local government area.

2. Alternative water disposal medium should be established instead of the usual disposal of

domestic waste water into open rivers which eventually find their way into the drainage

system.

3. Sensitization, education and awareness campaigns on the actual causes of climate change

must be vigorously carried out especially in communities to keep the residents well

informed and aware of how their activities can contribute to climate change and how they

can adapt to/and cope with a changing climate.

4. Forecasts and early warnings on rainfall onset and cessation by the Nigerian

Meteorological Agency (NIMET) or other sister agencies should be well communicated

and made available, particularly to the communities, who need such information to take

decisions on when to begin their farming operations in a given cropping season.

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