Professional Documents
Culture Documents
M O D U L E
11 Analyzing and
Valuing Equity
Securities
11-1
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Chris Hondros
J&J is currently riding high while many other pharmaceutical companies are struggling. Says Mason
Tenaglia, a drug-industry consultant, J&J is “casting a broader net for innovation—it’s not just blockbuster
drugs. They’ve held their value or grown, and the pure pharma plays that everyone thought could grow for-
ever are the companies that have lost their luster.” (TWSJ, December 2004).
Supported by its more diversified operations and fueled by a steady increase in operating profits, J&J’s
stock price has climbed steadily since late 2003, as shown here:
$64
$62
Johnson & Johnson Stock Price
$60
$58
$56
$54
$52
$50
$48
Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2005
Despite the run-up in stock price, however, analysts remain bullish, continuing to rate the J&J stock a “BUY.”
This raises several questions. What factors drive the J&J stock price? Why do analysts expect its price to
continue to rise? How do accounting measures of performance and financial condition impact this price? This
module provides insights and answers to these questions. It explains how we can use forecasts of operating
profits and cash flows in pricing equity securities such as that of J&J’s stock.
Sources: Johnson & Johnson 2004 and 2003 10-K Reports; Johnson & Johnson 2004 and 2003 Annual Reports; The Wall Street Journal,
December 2004.
11-2
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The expected free cash flows to the firm do not include the cash flows from financing activities. Instead,
the free cash flows to the firm (FCFF) are typically defined as net cash flows from operations net cash
1
The future stock price is, itself, also assumed to be related to the expected dividends that the new investor expects to receive. As a
result, the expected receipt of dividends is the sole driver of stock price under this type of valuation model.
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flows from investing activities. That is, FCFF reflects increases and decreases in net operating working
capital and in long-term operating assets.2 Using the terminology of Module 3
where
NOPAT Net operating profit after tax
NOA Net operating assets
Stated differently, free cash flows to the firm equal net operating profit that is not used to grow net oper-
ating assets.
Net operating profit after tax is normally positive and net cash flows from investments (increases) in
net operating assets are normally negative. The sum of the two (positive or negative) represents the net
cash flows available to financiers of the firm, both creditors and shareholders. Positive FCFF imply funds
available for distribution to creditors and shareholders either in the form of debt repayments, dividends, or
stock repurchases (treasury stock). Negative FCFF imply funds are required from creditors and share-
holders in the form of new loans or equity investments to support its business activities.
The DCF valuation model requires forecasts of all future free cash flows; that is, free cash flows for
the remainder of the company’s life. Generating such forecasts is not realistic. Consequently, practicing
analysts typically estimate FCFF over a horizon period, often 4 to 10 years, and then make simplifying as-
sumptions about the behavior of those FCFFs subsequent to that horizon period.
Application of the DCF model to equity valuation involves five steps:
1. Forecast and discount FCFF for the horizon period.3
2. Forecast and discount FCFF for the post-horizon period, called terminal period.4
3. Sum the present values of the horizon and terminal periods to yield firm (enterprise) value.
4. Subtract net financial obligations (NFO) from firm value to yield firm equity value.
5. Divide firm equity value by the number of shares outstanding to yield stock value per share.
To illustrate, we apply DCF to our focus company, Johnson & Johnson. J&J’s recent financial
statements are reproduced in Appendix 11A. Forecasted financials for J&J (forecast horizon 2004–2007
and terminal period 2008) are in Exhibit 11.1. These forecasts are based on analysts’ expectations re-
garding J&J’s future operating results and balance sheet for the next four years.5 The forecasts (in bold)
are for sales, NOPAT, and NOA. These forecasts assume an annual 8% (analysts’ consensus) sales
growth during the horizon period, a terminal period sales growth of 2%, and a continuation of the cur-
rent period’s 17.24% net operating profit margin (NOPM) and its 1.57 net operating asset turnover
(NOAT).6,7
2
FCFF is sometimes approximated by net cash flows from operating activities less capital expenditures.
3
When discounting FCFF, the appropriate discount rate (r) is the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), where the weights
are the relative percentages of debt (d ) and equity (e) in the capital structure that are applied to the expected returns on debt (rd )
and equity (re), respectively: WACC rw (rd % of debt) (re % of equity).
4
For an assumed growth, g, the terminal period (T) present value of FCFF in perpetuity (beyond the horizon period) is given by,
FCFFT
, where FCFFT is the free cash flow to the firm for the terminal period, rw is WACC, and g is the assumed growth rate of
rw g
those cash flows. The resulting amount is then discounted back to the present using the horizon period discount factor.
5
We use a four-period horizon in the text and assignments to simplify the exposition and to reduce the computational burden. In
practice, we perform the forecasting and valuation process using a spreadsheet, and the number of periods in the forecast horizon
is increased to typically 7 to 9 periods.
6
NOPAT equals revenues less operating expenses such as cost of goods sold, selling, general, and administrative expenses, and
taxes; it excludes any interest revenue and interest expense and any gains or losses from financial investments. NOPAT reflects the
operating side of the firm as opposed to nonoperating activities such as borrowing and security investment activities. NOA equals
operating assets less operating liabilities. (See Module 3.)
7
NOPAT and NOA are typically forecasted using the detailed forecasting procedures discussed in Module 10. This module uses the
parsimonious method to multiyear forecasting (see Module 10) to focus attention on the valuation process.
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Horizon Period
(In millions, except per share Terminal
values and discount factors) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Period
*2003 computations: NOPAT ($41,862 $12,176 $14,131 $4,684 $918 $385) (1-[$3,111/$10,308]) $7,216;
NOA $48,263 $4,146 $84 ($13,448 $1,139) $780 $2,262 $1,949 $26,733
†
NFO is negative when investments exceed borrowings (such as for J&J); in this case NFO is added, not subtracted (see footnote
10 for the NFO computation).
The bottom line of Exhibit 11.1 is the estimated J&J equity value of $193,893 million, or a per share
stock value of $65.33. Present value computations use a 6.24% WACC(rw) as the discount rate.8 Specifi-
cally, we obtain this stock valuation as follows:
1. Compute present value of horizon period FCFF. The forecasted 2004 FCFF of $5,654 million is
computed from the forecasted 2004 NOPAT less the forecasted increase in 2004 NOA. The present
value of this $5,654 million as of 2003 is $5,322 million, computed as $5,654 million 0.94127
(the present value factor for one year discounted at 6.24%).9 Similarly, the present value of 2005
FCFF (2 years from the current date) is $5,412 million, computed as $6,108 million 0.88598, and
so on through 2007. The sum of these present values (cumulative present value) is $21,825 million.
2. Compute present value of terminal period FCFF. The present value of the terminal period FCFF
a b
$9,287 million
0.0624 0.02
is $171,932 million, computed as
(1.0624)4
8
The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for J&J is computed as follows:
a. The cost of equity capital is given by the capital asset pricing model (CAPM): re rf (rm rf), where is the beta of
the stock (an estimate of its variability that is reported by several services such as Standard and Poors), rf is the risk free rate
(commonly assumed as the 10-year government bond rate), and rm is the expected return to the entire market. The expression
(rm rf) is the “spread” of equities over the risk free rate, often assumed to be around 5%. For J&J, given its beta of 0.476
and a 10-year treasury bond rate of 4.15% (rf) as of January 2004, re is estimated as 6.53%, computed as 4.15%
(0.476 5%).
b. The cost of debt capital is the 3.66% after-tax weighted average rate on J&J borrowings as disclosed in its footnotes (5.23%
pretax rate [1 30% effective tax rate of J&J]).
c. WACC is the weighted average of the two returns. For J&J, 90% is weighted on equity and 10% on debt, which reflects the
relative proportions of the two financing sources in J&J’s capital structure: (90% 6.53%) (10% 3.66%) 6.24%.
9
Horizon period discount factors follow: 1/(1.0624)1 0.94127; 1/(1.0624)2 0.88598; 1/(1.0624)3 0.83394; 1/(1.0624)4
0.78496.
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3. Compute firm equity value. Sum present values from the horizon and terminal period FCFF to get
firm (enterprise) value of $193,757 million. Subtract (add) the value of its net financial obligations
(investments) of $(136) million to get firm equity value of $193,893.10 Dividing firm equity value
by the 2,968 million shares outstanding yields the estimated per share valuation of $65.33.
This valuation would be performed in early 2004 (when J&J’s 10-K is released in mid-March 2004). J&J’s
stock closed at $51.66 at year-end 2003. Our valuation estimate of $65.33 indicates that its stock is un-
dervalued. In January 2005 (roughly one year later) J&J stock traded at near $63 and analysts continued
to recommend it as a BUY with a price target in the high $60s to low $70s per share.
The mean (consensus) EPS estimate for 2005 (one year ahead) is $3.40 per share, with a high of $3.43
and a low of $3.30. For 2006, the mean (consensus) EPS estimate is $3.72, with a high of $3.81 and a
low of $3.57. The estimated long-term growth rate for EPS (similar to our terminal year growth rate)
ranges from 9.4% to 15%, with a mean (consensus) estimate of 11%. Since the terminal year valuation
is such a large proportion of total firm valuation, especially for the DCF model, the variability in stock price
estimates across analysts covering JNJ is due more to variation in estimates for long-term growth rates
than to 1- and 2-year-ahead earnings forecasts.
■ MID-MODULE REVIEW ■
Following are forecasts of Procter & Gamble’s sales, net operating profit after tax (NOPAT), and net operating as-
sets (NOA)—these are taken from our forecasting process in Module 10 and now include a terminal year forecast:
Horizon Period
Terminal
(In millions) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Period
Drawing on these forecasts, compute P&G’s free cash flows to the firm (FCFF) and an estimate of its stock value
using the DCF model and assuming the following: discount rate (WACC) of 7.5%, shares outstanding of 2,543 mil-
lion, and net financial obligations (NFO) of $20,841 million.
10
J&J’s net financial obligation (NFO) is equal to $(136), computed as its debt ($1,139 $2,955) less its investments
($4,146 $84). J&J is in a net investment position (more investments than debt) rather than a net debt position.
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Solution
The following DCF results yield a P&G stock value estimate of $58.98 as of December 31, 2003. P&G’s stock closed
at a split-adjusted price of $49.94 on that date. This estimate suggests that P&G’s stock is undervalued on that date.
P&G stock traded at $55.08 one year later.
Horizon Period
(In millions, except per share Terminal
values and discount factors) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Period
a
NOA increases are viewed as a cash outflow.
$12,210 million
q r
0.075 0.02
b
Computed as , where 7.5% is WACC and 2% is the long-term growth rate subsequent to the horizon period
(1.075)4
(used to estimate terminal period FCFF).
where
NOA Net operating assets
ROPI Residual operating income
Net operating assets (NOA) are the foundation of firm value under the ROPI model. The measure of
NOA using the balance sheet is the outcome of accounting procedures, which are unlikely to fully and
contemporaneously capture the true (or intrinsic) value of these assets.11 However, the ROPI model adds
an adjustment that corrects for the usual undervaluation (but sometimes overvaluation) of NOA. This
amount is the present value of expected residual operating income and is defined as follows:
Expected NOPAT
where
NOABeg Net operating assets at beginning (Beg) of period
rw Weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
11
For example, R&D and advertising are not fully and contemporaneously reflected on the balance sheet as assets though they
likely produce future cash inflows. Likewise, internally generated goodwill is not fully reflected on the balance sheet as an asset.
Also, companies can delay or accelerate the write-down of impaired assets and, thus, overstate their book values. Similarly, assets
are generally not written up to reflect unrealized gains. These examples, and a host of others, can yield reported book values of
NOA that differs from its market value.
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The ROPI model’s use of the balance sheet (NOABeg), in addition to the income statement (NOPAT),
is informative because book values of net operating assets incorporate estimates (of varying relevance) of
their future cash flows. Understanding this model also helps us reap the benefits from disaggregation of
return on net operating assets (DuPont analysis) in Module 3. Finally, the ROPI model is the foundation
for many internal and external performance evaluation and compensation systems marketed by manage-
ment consulting and accounting services firms.12
Application of the ROPI model to equity valuation involves five steps:
1. Forecast and discount ROPI for the horizon period.13
2. Forecast and discount ROPI for the terminal period.14
3. Sum the present values of the horizon and terminal periods; then add this sum to current NOA to get
firm (enterprise) value.
4. Subtract net financial obligations (NFO) from firm value to yield firm equity value.
5. Divide firm equity value by the number of shares outstanding to yield stock value per share.
To illustrate application of the ROPI model, we again use Johnson & Johnson. Forecasted financials
for J&J (forecast horizon 2004–2007 and terminal period 2008) are in Exhibit 11.2. The forecasts (in bold)
are for sales, NOPAT, and NOA, and are the same forecasts from the illustration of the DCF model.
Horizon Period
(In millions, except per share Terminal
values and discount factors) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Period
*NFO is negative when investments exceed borrowings (such as for J&J); in this case NFO is added, not subtracted.
The bottom line of Exhibit 11.2 is the estimated J&J equity value of $193,894 million, or a per share
stock value of $65.33. As before, present value computations use a 6.24% WACC as the discount rate.
Specifically, we obtain this stock valuation as follows:
1. Compute present value of horizon period ROPI. The forecasted 2004 ROPI of $6,125 million is
computed from the forecasted 2004 NOPAT less the product of beginning period NOA and WACC.
12
Examples are economic value added (EVA™) from Stern Stewart & Company, the economic profit model from McKinsey &
Co., the cash flow return on investment (CFROI) from Holt Value Associates, the economic value management from KPMG, and
the value builder from PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).
13
The present value of expected ROPI uses the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) as its discount rate—same as with the
DCF model.
14
As with the DCF model, for an assumed growth, g, the present value of the perpetuity of ROPI beyond the horizon period is
ROPIT
given by , where ROPIT is the residual operating income for the terminal period, rw is WACC for the firm, and g is the
rw g
assumed growth rate of ROPI following the horizon period. The resulting amount is then discounted back to the present at the
horizon period discount factor.
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The present value of this ROPI as of 2003 is $5,765 million, computed as $6,125 million 0.94127
(the present value 1 year hence discounted at 6.24%). Similarly, the present value of 2005 ROPI
(2 years hence) is $5,861 million, computed as $6,615 million 0.88598, and so on through 2007.
The sum of these present values (cumulative present value) is $23,641 million.
2. Compute present value of terminal period ROPI. The present value of the terminal period ROPI
a b
$7,745 million
0.0624 0.02
is $143,385 million, computed as
(1.0624)4
3. Compute firm equity value. We must sum the present values from the horizon period ($23,641
million) and terminal period ($143,385 million), plus NOA ($26,733 million), to get firm
(enterprise) value of $193,758 million. Subtract (add) the value of its net financial obligations
(investments) of $(136) million to get firm equity value of $193,894 (the $1 difference from the
DCF value of $193,893 is from rounding). Dividing firm equity value by the 2,968 million shares
outstanding yields the estimated per share valuation of $65.33.
J&J’s stock closed at $51.66 at year-end 2003. The ROPI model estimate of $65.33 indicates that its stock
is undervalued. In January 2005 (roughly one year later) J&J stock traded at near $63.
The ROPI model estimate is equal to that computed using the DCF model. This is the case so long as
the firm is in a steady state, that is, NOPAT and NOA are growing at the same rate (for example, when
RNOA is constant).
ROPI
Increasing ROPI, therefore, increases firm value. This can be accomplished in two ways:
1. Decrease the NOA required to generate a given level of NOPAT
2. Increase NOPAT with the same level of NOA investment (improve profitability)
These are two very important observations. It means that achieving better performance requires
effective management of both the income statement and balance sheet. Most operating managers are ac-
customed to working with income statements. Further, they are often evaluated on profitability measures,
such as achieving desired levels of gross profit or efficiently managing operating expenses. The ROPI
model focuses management attention on the balance sheet as well.
The two points above highlight two paths to increase ROPI and, accordingly, firm value. First, let’s
consider how management can reduce the level of NOA while maintaining a given level of NOPAT. Many
managers begin by implementing procedures that reduce net operating working capital, such as:
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EXHIBIT 11. 3 ■ Advantages and Disadvantages of DCF and ROPI Valuation Models
• Popular and widely accepted • Cash investments in plant assets are treated as cash outflows, • When the firm reports
model even when creating shareholder value positive FCFF
• No recognition of value unless evidenced by cash flows
• Cash flows are unaffected by • Computing FCFF can be difficult as operating cash flows are • When FCFF grows at a
accrual accounting affected by relatively constant rate
DCF —Cutbacks on investments (receivables, inventories, plant
• FCFF is intuitive assets); can yield short-run benefits at long-run costs
—Tax benefits of stock option exercise; but likely are
transitory as they depend on maintenance of current
stock price
—GAAP treats securitization as an operating cash flow
when many view it as a financing activity
• Focuses on value drivers such • Financial statements do not reflect all company assets, • When financial
as profit margins and asset especially for knowledge-based industries (for example, R&D statements reflect all
turnovers assets and goodwill) assets and liabilities;
• Uses both balance sheet and including items often
ROPI
income statement, including • Requires some knowledge of accrual accounting reported off-balance-
accrual accounting sheet
information
• Reduces weight placed on
terminal period value
There are numerous other equity valuation models in practice. Many require forecasting, but several
others do not. A quick review of selected models follows:
The method of comparables (often called multiples) model predicts equity valuation or stock value
using price multiples. Price multiples are defined as stock price divided by some key financial statement
number. That financial number varies across investors but is usually one of the following: net income, net
sales, book value of equity, total assets, or cash flow. Companies are then compared with competitors on
their price multiples to assign value.
The net asset valuation model draws on the financial reporting system to assign value. That is, eq-
uity is valued as reported assets less reported liabilities. Some investors adjust reported assets and liabili-
ties for several perceived shortcomings in GAAP prior to computing net asset value. This method is also
commonly applied by privately held companies.
The dividend discount model predicts that equity valuation or stock values equal the present value
of expected cash dividends. This model is founded on the dividend discount formula and depends on the
reliability of forecasted cash dividends.
There are additional models applied in practice that involve dividends, cash flows, research and de-
velopment outlays, accounting rates of return, cash recovery rates, and real option models. Further, some
practitioners, called chartists and technicians, chart price behavior over time and use it to predict equity
value.
■ MODULE-END REVIEW ■
Following are forecasts of Procter & Gamble’s sales, net operating profit after tax (NOPAT), and net operating as-
sets (NOA). These are taken from our forecasting process in Module 10 and now include a terminal year forecast:
Horizon Period
Terminal
(In millions) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Period
Drawing on these forecasts, compute P&G’s residual operating income (ROPI) and an estimate of its stock value using
the ROPI model. Assume the following: discount rate (WACC) of 7.5%, shares outstanding of 2,543 million, and net
financial obligations (NFO) of $20,841 million.
Solution
Results from the ROPI model below yield a P&G stock value estimate of $58.98 as of December 31, 2003. P&G’s
stock closed at a split-adjusted price of $49.94 on that date. This estimate suggests that P&G’s stock is undervalued
on that date. P&G stock traded at $55.08 one year later as shown in the stock price chart below.
Horizon Period
(In millions, except per share Terminal
values and discount factors) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Period
$8,111 million
q r
0.075 0.02
a
Computed as .
(1.075)4
The P&G stock price chart, extending from year-end 2003 through early 2005, follows:
$57
$56
P&G Stock Price
$55
$54
$53
$52
$51
$50
$49
2004 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2005
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A P P E N D I X 11A
Johnson & Johnson Financial Statements
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Assets
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents $ 5,377 $ 2,894
Marketable securities 4,146 4,581
Accounts receivable trade, less allowances for doubtful accounts $192 (2002, $191) 6,574 5,399
Inventories 3,588 3,303
Deferred taxes on income 1,526 1,419
Prepaid expenses and other receivables 1,784 1,670
Shareholders’ equity
Preferred stock—without par value (authorized and unissued 2,000,000 shares) — —
Common stock—par value $1.00 per share (authorized 4,320,000,000 shares;
issued 3,119,842,000 shares) 3,120 3,120
Note receivable from employee stock ownership plan (18) (25)
Accumulated other comprehensive income (590) (842)
Retained earnings 30,503 26,571
33,015 28,824
Less: common stock held in treasury, at cost (151,869,000 and 151,547,000) 6,146 6,127
G U I D A N C E A N S W E R S
MANAGERIAL DECISION You Are the Division Manager
Cash flow is increased with asset reductions. For example, receivables are reduced by the following:
■ DISCUSSION QUESTIONS
Q11-1. Explain how information contained in financial statements is useful in pricing securities. Are there some
components of earnings that are more useful than others in this regard? What nonfinancial information
might also be useful?
Q11-2. In general, what role do expectations play in pricing equity securities? What is the relation between
security prices and expected returns (the discount rate, or WACC, in this case)?
Q11-3. What are free cash flows to the firm (FCFF) and how are they used in the pricing of equity securities?