Monday, January 17, 2011

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Individuals in three North African countries committed self-immolation on Monday, as Arab governments
across the wider region sought to stem the potential for contagion generated by the recent popular uprising in
Tunisia, which itself began with an act of self-immolation on Dec. 17. From Syria to Kuwait to Egypt and
beyond, ruling regimes are looking inward and trying to pre-empt their discontented masses from coalescing
into a threat to their rule.

As STRATFOR has noted, the larger significance of the Tunisian coup lies in its potential to be replicated
elsewhere in the Arab world, and in how various governments choose to respond in an effort to prevent it from
happening again. Opposition groups in every Arab country have now seen that it is possible to topple regimes
that have been in place for decades, and that it does not take an Islamist uprising to do it. Tunisia, in short, has
inspired them.

For sitting governments in the region, a particularly concerning side effect of all the media attention devoted to
the Tunisian unrest in recent weeks is the new-found affinity among Arab males for a protest tactic historically
confined primarily to East Asia. In less than a month, the act of self-immolation, which is the technical term
for lighting oneself on fire, has gone from something virtually unheard of in the Arab world to a regularly
occurring event. It was the spark for the Tunisian protests last December, and since a copycat in the same
country on Jan. 5, there have been at least seven additional cases of self-immolation recorded in Algeria,
Mauritania and Egypt.

Governments in the region fear that such a dramatic act of suicide attempted in so public a fashion ² with
³new media´ forums such as blogs, Twitter, Facebook and YouTube ready to spread the word in a way that
can¶t be done when state media is all that exists ² could trigger a similar event in another country. These
governments are searching for ways to pre-emptively appease their constituencies by offering economic aid
packages and modest openings of political space. In the three days since the fall of former Tunisian President
Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, there have been multiple examples of such concessions. ?

In Kuwait, Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah decreed that every Kuwaiti citizen receive a one-time
payment of KD 1,000 (roughly $3,558), plus free food rations for 13 months beginning in February. Officially,
the gifts are being made in coordination with the fifth anniversary of al-Sabah¶s rule.

In Syria, state media reported a government plan worth $250 million to help 420,000 impoverished families.
Cash loans will be distributed to Syrian citizens who qualify for the aid beginning in February.

In Egypt, the managing editor of the ruling National Democratic Party¶s (NDP) website wrote an article
declaring that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak does not want poor people to pay new taxes or carry any
additional burdens, and NDP officials have been tasked with determining a way to implement this directive
throughout the year. In addition, the Egyptian Cabinet announced that it has drafted a law that sets 2017 as the
deadline for political parties represented in parliament to field presidential candidates.

In Sudan (the northern, Arab region), the governor of Khartoum state announced measures designed to soften
the blow of recent price hikes on commodities such as cooking oil and sugar. Free school meals and health
insurance cards will be distributed to 30,000 students and their families.

This is a trend that will likely continue in the coming weeks and months, as world food prices remain high and
global economic growth tepid. Arab countries that don¶t have the oil wealth of the Persian Gulf states are
constrained economically from being able to spend much on social development, but they will seek ways to do
so nonetheless, in efforts to garner good faith among those they see as most likely to revolt. Granting
additional freedoms to populations used to living under an autocratic society is historically much more
dangerous for the ruling regime, but depending on each country¶s circumstances, these various Arab
governments may one day not have much of a choice. One thing is certain: No Arab ruler wants a citizen to
light himself on fire on a busy city street, for fear of the possible side effects.
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