Lightning Flash Density Map of Pakistan
on ARC-GIS® Software – An Empirical Approach
H.M.S. Adnan Ali
Department of Electrical Engineering
NED University of Engineering & Technology, Pakistan
adnanali@neduet.edu.pk
Syed Jowaid Ahmed
Department of Geography
University of Karachi, Pakistan
syedjowaidahmed@gmail.com
Abdullah Munir
Department of Electrical Engineering
NED University of Engineering & Technology, Pakistan
abdullah.munir@neduet.edu.pk
Abstract— Lightning is a natural hazard that can have severe
effects both on electrical power system and in general. In order to
plan for lightning protection it is necessary to map out the likely
occurrence of lightning at any location across the country. In this
paper lightning density map of Pakistan has been developed
using Pakistan Metrology Department (PMD) data over the
period 1960-1990 on Arc-GIS software® platform. Such map is
helpful in planning protection system for utility company’s
network and in general for lightning risk assessment at country
level. Further lightning map also helps in predicting aviation
hazards, severe storm and in understanding the weather in any
country. The developed lightning map shows that Pakistan
lightning flash density is highest in region around Murree
reaching a maximum of 9.4 flashes per km2 per year and most of
the areas of Pakistan have lowest density reaching a minimum
value of hardly single flash/km2/yr.
Keywords— Lightning Map; Lightning Density; Thunderstorm
Days; Arc-GIS®; Kernel Analysis.
I. INTRODUCTION
Lightning, a natural phenomenon, occurs due to
charged clouds and is defined as an electric discharge in the
form of a spark or flash originating in a charged cloud [1]. The
negative cloud to ground lightning is the most common form
of lightning and forms around 80% of the total lightning
activity [2]. Clouds are formed by the physical process of
condensation, convection and mixing. Every day about 40000
thunders occur around the world [3] and as many as 1.4 billion
flashes occur annually over the whole earth [4] this number
count translates to an average of 44 + 5 lightning flashes
occurring every second around the world. But this count is not
fixed and there is variation in both distribution and frequency
of lightning activity from year to year due to El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon.
978-1-5386-5186-5/18/$31.00 ©2018 IEEE
M.M. Aman
Department of Electrical Engineering
NED University of Engineering & Technology, Pakistan
mohsinaman@gmail.com
Shariq Shaikh
Department of Electrical Engineering
NED University of Engineering & Technology, Pakistan
shariq.shaikh@hotmail.com
Systematic research on lightning has produced a greater
understanding of this natural phenomenon and many of the
characteristics, typical values and formation process of
lightning are discussed and listed in [1, 2, 5-7]. The charge
acquiring process in clouds during thunderstorm primarily
involves collisions between graupel (soft hail) and small
crystals of ice in the presence of unfrozen super cooled water
droplets at altitudes where temperature is generally around -10
0
C to -20 0C. Once the charge is transferred, two main charge
centers are created within the cloud with negative charge
center at the bottom and positive charge center at the top of
the cloud. The potential difference between charge centers can
range from 100 MV to 1000 MV. Usually lightning consists of
multiple strokes and mean stroke occurrence is five to six. The
effects of lightning are not localized but can be felt as far as
1.2 to 12.5 miles away from the lightning stroke site due to
higher currents flowing through the ground. Similarly, in
Japan using rocket triggered lightning experiments totaling
212 successful experiments up till 2009 and resulting in more
than 200 research papers has helped in understanding the
characteristics of lightning at large such as the speed,
magnitude and time characteristics of negative and positive
leader discharges. Energy dissipated by the lightning flash is
of the order of the 1000 to 10000 MJ, but it appears to be
impractical to utilize this energy.
II. LIGHTNING --- A NATURAL HAZARD
Lightning is associated with severe weather conditions,
which may result in loss of the property or human life; hence it
is classified as natural hazard that requires risk analysis both on
spatial and temporal basis [8]. Each year around 20,000 people
are affected by lightning [9] and the majority forms the
villagers working in open fields. Similarly lightning presents a
problem for utility companies due to its high cost of repair and
loss of profit when it strikes the equipment directly or
indirectly and is a major cause for interference in the
telecommunication exchange stations and mobile
communications [10]. In fact in electric power systems the
transmission line outage frequency is in proportion to lightning
flash density value in that particular area [11] and especially in
areas with high specific soil resistivity and high lightning flash
value, the main attribution for low power quality is lightning
[12] In [13] it has been shown that with best lightning
protection system the SAIFI (system average interruption
frequency) was reduced from 34.2 int./ yr. to 13.2 int./yr.
Lightning also acts as a major ignition mechanism in wildfires
thus affecting the human society and ecosystems [8].
Many economic advantages are obtained from accurate
lightning location data both in space and time basis and such
data is in high demand in industries such as power utilities,
aviation, insurance companies in checking claims, sporting
groups and for weather prediction agencies [14]. The lightning
risk assessment for transmission lines is fairly accurate and
estimation for outage rates of transmission lines can be done
using computer programs and the calculation agree well with
field experiences [15].
Quantitative assessment of lightning hazard shows South
Asia has higher lightning hazards compared with other parts of
the world. And particularly in Pakistan’s northern parts
mountainous regions i.e. Himalayas have one of the greatest
flash densities in the world. Optical Transient Detector (OTD)
mean annual flash density registered for Murree Pakistan is as
high as 33.3 flashes/Km2/yr [4]. There is very little information
available about lightning incidents in Pakistan [16] and based
on data available in [9] there were 38 deaths in 2007in Ushari
Dara in Dir district and 47 deaths in 2010 in Gilgit-Baltistan of
Diamer.
III. QUANTIFICATION OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
The evaluation of severity of storm and lightning activity in
a given region is done using the three parameters given as [17]
• Annual number of thunderstorm days (Keraunic
Level)
• Annual number of thunder storm hours (Crono-
Keraunic Level)
• Lightning flash density (Specifically Ground flash
density)
From protection and safety point of view distribution of
third parameter over a territory is important for use of lightning
protection methods. Flash density is main descriptor of
lightning occurrence in system protection studies such as the
IEC 62305-2 international standard. In fact cloud to ground
lightning frequency is the most important factor in the
insulation design of transmission systems [18]. Damage to the
people and property in any given region is directly proportional
to the lightning flash density [10, 16]. Lightning flash density
is defined as the number of flashes over unit area in unit time
and is given in flashes per square kilometer per year
(fl/km2/year) and specifically for protection of systems at
ground level, ground flash density (Ng) is used and is defined
as the number of flashes striking a unit area of the ground per
unit time [19]. In order to quantify risk assessment and proper
planning of protection system the lightning density maps are
developed for an area based on Ng levels. However, Ng can’t
be measured easily and without the aid of sophisticated
equipment. If available lightning detection network such as
lightning flash counters or lightning location system provide a
superior measure of lightning activity in a given region [9, 10,
20-22]. However in absence of such network as in Pakistan,
there is no other way but to use the thunder day data and
estimate Ng levels using empirically derived equations [10, 16,
19, 20]. Lightning is a stochastic event [23] that is highly
variable is space and time. The derivation of reliable estimates
of its activity, therefore, requires statistical averaging over a
large area and a considerable a number of years (more than ten
years) of observation [19].
IV. LIGHTNING DETECTION TECHNIQUES AND NETWORKS
Passive lightning location methods rely upon the energy
released in lightning phenomenon acoustically, optically and in
the radio frequency waves [24]. Lightning discharge emits
electromagnetic pulses in a frequency range of below 1 Hz to
around 300 MHz with peak in the range of 5-10 KHz [25].
Depending upon the portion of frequency spectrum utilized
different information can be gathered about lightning activity.
Using the VHF (very high frequency) range f = 30 to 300MHz
the complete lightning channel can be mapped while on the
other side using the LF (low frequency) range f = 30 to 300
KHz and VLF (very low frequency) range f= 3 to 30 KHz the
location of lightning strike can be found. In general networks
utilizing the VHF/LF generate more precise data as compared
to networks based on VLF signals. But the advantage of VLF
signals is that they can be monitored over very large distances
due to low attenuation of these signals in earth-ionospheric
waveguide (EIWG) [25]. Modern lightning techniques have the
capability to determine various parameters during thunderstorm
activity such as polarity, location, strength. The instruments
used to measure lightning activity are Lightning Flash counters
(LFC), Lightning Location systems, Satellite based detectors
[19] and World Wide lightning Location Network (WWLLN)
[26].
A. Lightning flash counter (LFC)
Many types of lightning flash counters have been
developed but the most important ones are 500 Hz CIGRE
(International Conference on Large Electric Systems), CIGRE
10 kHz counter and CGR3 (Cloud-Ground Ratio #3). These
counters have been used at many locations around the world to
give estimates of lightning ground flash density. Every LFC
will record both ground and cloud lightning discharges, but for
ground flash density maps only ground discharges are needed
(Ng) therefore a correction factor is required to extract the
desired lightning strokes. In order to arrive at meaningful
average value of flash density, measurements over many years
are required [5].
B. Lightning location system (LLS)
Many ground based lightning detection networks are in
operation around the world [25] such as the Australian
lightning detection and information system (ALDIS), the
central European lightning detection network (CELDN), in
America national lightning detection network (NLDN), Japan
lightning detection network (JLDN) and many more. These
networks operate on the magnetic direction finding, principle
of interferometry and time of arrival methods. Each location
network has different detection efficiency, location accuracy
and false alarm rate depending upon the unique sensor
configuration and their spatial distribution in the area of
interest. However ground based networks have an aggregate
efficiency at best between 70% to 80% after taking into
account various factors such as misclassification of events,
location accuracy and further lightning discharges with currents
less than 5 KA are hardly recorded and also lightning flash
density estimates do not take into account multiple channel
terminations on earth [27]. The LLS is improving in terms of
sensor configuration such as the modern IMPACT version of
LLS implemented by the power utilities in Japan [18]. The
ground based lightning location networks has the advantage of
providing real time observations of lightning activity but the
cost of implementation is high that makes them unlikely to be
implemented over oceans and in areas of low population
density.
C. Satellite based detectors
Another way to observe lightning is through satellites
orbiting the earth. NASA sent a space-based sensor named
optical transient detector (OTD) to determine the distribution
pattern of lightning around the world. OTD was launched in
low earth orbit in April 1995 on the Orbview-1 spacecraft.
OTD has solid state optical sensor at the heart of the system.
OTD detects the momentary changes in an optical scene which
indicates the occurrence of lightning. It can detect such
changes both during day and night time. Using the
observations of OTD the average number of flashes occurring
in a year and their spatial distribution can be determined.
Satellite lightning detection system observes each point on
earth for 15 hours each year and hence lag the continuous and
real time observations. Further satellite detectors cannot
differentiate between cloud to ground lightning and cloud to
cloud lightning so in order to determine Ng the fraction of
discharges to ground must be known relative to the total
number of discharges [28].
In [29] a comparison is made of the lightning detected by
the OTD and by the NLDN. It has been found that the OTD
detection efficiency for ground flashes is in the range 46 to 69
percent and is likely to be slightly higher for cloud flashes. The
average values of the detection efficiency is estimated to be 49
percent for OTD, spatial errors are, on average, about 20-40
Km and its temporal errors are less than 100 ms [5]. This
mission ended on 23 March 2000. An advanced version of
space based lightning sensor was sent on 28 November 1997
into orbit named as LIS (lightning imaging sensor). LIS is three
times more sensitive compared to OTD and allows observing
each point on earth or cloud for about 80 seconds. This time is
sufficient to estimate flashing rate and tells whether a storm is
growing or decaying [30]. The average value of the detection
efficiency is estimated to be 82 percent for LIS [5]. This
mission generated data and remained operational for 17 years.
D. Worldwide lightning location network (WWLLN)
Low Frequency Electromagnetic Research Ltd. has created
experimental VLF based Worldwide Lightning Location
Network (WWLLN) in collaborations with research institutions
around the world. The purpose of this network is to provide
real time locations of lightning discharges around the globe and
it works based on electromagnetic power radiated by lightning
as “sferics” present in the VLF (3 – 30 KHz) range [14]. The
VLF band has the tendency to be received thousands of
kilometers away from the source. WWLLN favors the
detection of strong lightning around the world [27] and recent
research indicates detection efficiency of 30% globally for
strokes about 30 kA [26]. New stations are continuously being
added as part of this network to increase the efficiency and
there were over 60 stations as in 2012. The detection efficiency
of WWLLN varies from place to place around the world due to
variable station coverage and it does depend on the changing
nature of the ionospheric D-region. The detection efficiency of
WWLLN has been compared with regional lightning location
networks in Australia, Brazil and America and these studies
indicated that the WWLLN has low detection efficiency of
only a few percent of global lightning activity [14]. As of 2004
WWLLN detected around only 1.5% of the global lightning
activity and provided good locations for 2.3% of global cloud
to ground lightning activity. The ultimate aim of WWLLN
(after expansion) is to provide real time locations for cloud to
ground lightning discharges with more than 50% detection
efficiency and with a location accuracy of < 10 Km [14].
V. EMPIRICAL EQUATIONS & THEIR LIMITATIONS
As discussed, the LLS provides the accurate data of
lightning activity in a given region but such network is not in
operation in Pakistan hence the estimation of lightning activity
depends on the thunderstorm day data. In countries where no
lightning location system is installed lightning protection
standards propose to estimate Ng form thunder day data [20].
Thunder storm day or thunder day is defined as “an
observational day (any 24-hour period selected as the basis for
climatological or hydrological observations) during which
thunder is heard at the station. Precipitation need not occur”
[28]. The total days in a year on which thunder is heard is
known as the Keraunic level of the area. It has been found by
experience that lightning density is proportional to Keraunic
level of the area [1, 10]. The equation relating ground flash
density (Ng) to thunder days (Td) takes the mathematical form
of
N g = a(Td )
b
(1)
Where ‘a’ and ‘b’ are empirically derived constants that
vary with geographic location and climate of the region. Over
a period of time many equations have been derived that relate
thunder day and ground flash density. These equations are
presented in tabular form in Table 1.
TABLE 1: Empirical Equations [9]
Ground Flash Density (Ng) Country of Observation Equation
No.
Ng= 0.01 (Td)1.4 Australia 2
Ng= 0.012 (Td)1.4 Australia 3
Ng= 0.023 (Td)1.3 South Africa 4
Ng= 0.04 (Td)1.25 South Africa 5
Ng= 0.1 (Td)1 Not specified 6
 From Table 1, it is to be noted that there is no universal
equation relating Ng to Td and these constants are a function
of the geographic location and its climate. These five
equations are plotted on MATLAB for 300 thunder days with
an increment of 0.1 and the obtained graph is shown in Fig. 1.
Thunder Storm day over there during monsoon and pre-
monsoon seasons respectively [3].
VI. LIGHTNING FLASH DENSITY MAPPING OF PAKISTAN
Geographic information systems (GIS) are widely used to
study variation of different atmospheric processes on spatial
basis in a region. Density maps are one of the most powerful
lightning data tool used for visual interpretation and
quantitative analysis. Density maps give first order analysis
that is how information varies in space. When estimating
density, errors are reduced when using kernel analysis [17]. In
this paper Arc-GIS software® [30] has been used for plotting
the ground flash density map of Pakistan using Kernel density
tool. The map as per procedure shown in Fig. 2 is developed
and is shown in Fig. 3.

STEP 1:
Conversion of Td values to Ng

STEP 2:
Plotting of 48 Ng values on map

Fig: 1: Variation of Ng with Keraunic Level STEP 3:

Selection of Kernel radius

Fig. 1 shows that highest Ng is obtained by Eqn. (5) and

lowest is obtained by Eqn. (2) while for the three remaining STEP 4:
equations the values lie between these two extremes. For Estimation of values in surrounding region of stations
protection and lightning risk assessment point of view any
protection system designed to cater the requirement of Eqn. Fig: 2: Steps of Mapping
(5) will ultimately fulfill the requirements of all equations.
Hence all the calculations and mapping is done based on Eqn.
(5).
Eqns. (2) to (6) provide good estimation of the lightning
activity in a given region but they have their limitations as
discussed in [9]. These limitations occur due to several mis-
interpretation in data at the time of collection. These errors are
as period and intensity of the thunder day is not taken into
consideration, thunder day is defined for a region and not per
km square basis further “a” and “b” constants are a function of
the geographic region.

V. METROLOGICAL DATA OF PAKISTAN

Pakistan Meteorological Department continuously
monitors and records the thunder day data in country on a 24-
hour basis. Such data is useful to determine the frequency of
thunderstorm days and in identifying areas that are at high risk
of thunderstorm or lightning. Thunder-day data is available in
Pakistan meteorology journal [29] and the same data has been
shown in Table A-1. The plot of thunder day values is shown
in Fig. 4. Fig 3: Pakistan Lightning Flash Density Map on Arc
GIS® Software
All flash density values are based on Eqn. (5). In
Pakistan, the areas of higher thunderstorm frequency lay
above 300 N. there is no region beyond 300 N or south having
such higher Thunder Storm activity. On the average possibly
every 2nd or 3rd day and every 3rd or 4th day could be a
 Fig: 4: Annual Mean “No. of Thunderstorm Days” of 48 Stations of Pakistan (1961-1990)

TABLE A-1: PAKISTAN METEOROLOGY STATIONS DATA

Name of Station Latitude Longitude Td Ng Name of Latitude Longitude Td Ng
(using EQ:5) Station (using EQ:5)
Bahawal Nagar 29.333 73.85 23.25 2.0422 Chilas 35.416 74.1 18.63 1.5482
Bahawal Pur 29.333 71.783 11.97 0.8906 Gupis 36.166 73.4 3.33 0.1799
Faisalabad 31.433 73.133 32.03 3.0479 Chhor 29.883 69.716 11.83 0.8776
Jhelum 32.933 73.733 78.83 9.3956 Hyderabad 25.383 68.416 6.2 0.3913
Khanpur 28.65 70.683 12.67 0.9562 Jiwani 25.066 61.8 4.8 0.2842
Lahore 31.55 74.333 46.27 4.8271 Jacobabad 28.3 68.466 10.67 0.7714
Multan 32.2 71.433 35 3.4052 Nawabshah 26.25 68.366 8.18 0.5534
Sialkot 32.516 74.533 56.83 6.2414 Panjgur 26.966 64.1 5.13 0.3088
Balakot 34.55 72.35 58.93 6.5310 Pasni 25.266 63.483 1.83 0.0851
Cherat 33.816 71.55 13.83 1.0668 Badin 24.633 68.9 5.33 0.3239
Chitral 35.85 71.833 21.85 1.8896 Lasbella 26.233 66.166 2.43 0.1214
D.I.Khan 31.816 70.933 28.37 2.6190 Padidan 26.85 68.133 7.87 0.5273
Dir 35.2 71.85 81.96 9.8642 Rohri 27.666 68.9 3.47 0.1894
Drosh 35.566 71.783 56.43 6.1865 Karachi 24.9 66.933 6.4 0.4072
Kakul 34.183 73.25 106.57 13.6963 Quetta 30.183 66.95 21.03 1.8014
Parachinar 33.866 70.083 107.17 13.7928 Kalat 29.033 66.583 4 0.2263
RMC Peshawar 34.02 71.56 59.4 6.5962 Khuzdar 27.833 66.633 23 2.0147
Garhi Dupatta 34.216 73.616 97.73 12.2912 Sibbi 29.55 67.883 6.1 0.3835
Kotli 33.516 73.9 76.73 9.0838 Zhob 31.35 69.466 32.57 3.1123
Muzaffarabad 34.366 73.483 86.47 10.5473 Barkhan 29.883 69.716 44.25 4.5651
Skardu 35.3 75.683 7.88 0.5281 Dalbandin 28.883 64.4 8.97 0.6209
Bunji 35.666 74.633 19.17 1.6045 Nokkundi 28.816 62.75 3.2 0.1712
Gilgit 35.916 74.333 14.87 1.1680 Islamabad 33.7294 73.0931 89.47 11.0067
Astore 35.333 74.9 8.07 0.5441 Murree 33.9078 73.3915 80.27 9.6106

The map shows the lightning hazard level in different
areas of Pakistan. Most of the region of Pakistan is a low
lightning hazard area having value less than 1 flash/km2/yr
while the region near Murree has high occurrence level of
lightning reaching a maximum value of 9.4 flash/km2/yr. This
lightning map has many advantages in the power system,
aviation, metrological, forest and telecommunication
industries. All these industries may improve their performance
by incorporating weather related data. Such as in power system
this map is helpful in determining the level of earthing
requirements, selection of optimal route for transmission and
distribution lines as this have a prominent effect on the
lightning performance of the line [12] and also in selection of
appropriate lightning protection system in accordance with the
flash density value in that particular area.
Moreover, there is an increasing trend towards
automatization in electric power industry in the form of smart
grid. This can help in reducing the outages due to weather
related events including lightning [31] but at the same time
there is need for more efficient lightning protection system for
smart grid due to deployment of sensitive electronic equipment
[32]. The current trend in smart grids is to use weather data
including lightning frequency along with GIS based asset
management to forecast the usage pattern of consumers and in
outage management of power system [33].
VII. CONCLUSION
Using the Pakistan Metrology Department (PMD)
thunderstorm data, the ground flash density map has been
developed for Pakistan using Arc-GIS® kernel density tools.
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