WHY NON-CONDENSABLE GREENHOUSE GASES CANNOT HAVE AN

APPRECIABLE AFFECT on WEATHER and CLIMATE CHANGE

28 ADDITIONAL Weather-Change mechanisms that are
NOT RADIATION-Greenhouse GAS interactions
Geoffrey G Duffy FRSNZ

It is widely claimed that the MAIN CAUSE of CLIMATE CHANGE results from
‘GREENHOUSE GASES and RADIATION’.
HERE IT IS SHOWN THAT THERE IS FAR MORE!!
WE CERTAINLY MUST ADD ….

DIRECT RADIATION to >>> LIQUID WATER [71% of the planet is ocean + cloud water droplets]

DIRECT RADIATION to >>> SOLID MATTER [29% of the planet is land and solid matter]
The 28 additional operating radiation mechanisms listed here show clearly that there are
many more powerful mechanisms than just radiation and greenhouse-GASES that can affect
the weather and climate, and thus heat the world. Some even amplify the greenhouse GAS-
radiation mechanisms; especially with the only phase-change gas, water vapour.

1. EVAPORATION:
(a) 71% of the Earth is ocean. Incoming solar radiation directly impacts LIQUID water as
oceans, lakes, and rivers. 423 trillion tonnes of water evaporate/year (13 million
tonnes/second). This evaporation is caused mainly by direct solar energy absorption
to liquid surface water [NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(b) Liquid water can evaporate without external solar radiation (energy can come from
within the liquid itself causing evaporative cooling) [NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(c) Liquid water can evaporate into the atmosphere when there is NO temperature
difference between the water layer and atmosphere (with or without solar radiation-
water absorption) (Reason: when the atmosphere is not saturated with water vapour
ie partial pressure lower than the vapour pressure) [NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(d) Liquid water can evaporate into the atmosphere in certain cases when the air near
the interface is at a lower temperature (no external solar radiation needed) (partial
pressure lower than the vapour pressure) [NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(e) Liquid water can evaporate into the atmosphere when the air flowing across the
interface is not already saturated with water vapour (a concentration driving force:
not a temperature driving force) [NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(f) Liquid water evaporation into the atmosphere can be augmented just by an increase
in interfacial surface area: waves, winds, impacting raindrops, and other surface flow
disturbances [NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(g) Temperature gradients immediately below the liquid ocean surface can cause
convective liquid mixing and thermal gradients, augmenting evaporation and thus the
production of water vapour [NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
2. ATMOSPHERIC HUMIDIFICATION – WATER VAPOUR CHANGES
(a) Water vapour can move in air (diffuse) without radiation due to difference in
pressure, humidity (concentration), and/or density (non-thermal driving forces)
[NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(b) Water vapour concentrations in the atmosphere can change due to the interactions
of adjacent moving air having a different level of moisture-vapour content (humidity
difference). Examples: gales, winds, thermals
[NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(c) Water vapour concentrations can change in the air due to the local presence of
water; water droplets, mists, rain, fogs, ice crystals etc
[NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(d) Water vapour concentrations in the atmosphere can change when water vapour
sublimates and goes directly to ice, ice crystals, or snowflakes
[NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(e) Water vapour concentrations can change in the air when the water vapour-liquid
water equilibrium (dew point) is exceeded
[NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(f) Water vapour concentrations can change in the air when that moist air comes into
contact with cooler solid surfaces e.g. condensing as dew
[NOT a greenhouse gas effect]

3. CONDENSATION in the ATMOSPHERE

(a) Gaseous water vapour and/or existing liquid water molecules can combine to
form small liquid droplets in clouds, mists or fogs
[NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(b) When atmospheric water vapour condenses to form fogs, mists, or clouds (phase
changes) it gives up large amounts of thermal energy as latent heat
[NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(c) Liquid water in clouds, mists and fogs can evaporate back again to form water
vapour (gas) if the air is not saturated
[NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(d) Liquid water in clouds, mists and fogs can evaporate to form water vapour (gas)
with or without a temperature change (concentration-difference driving forces)
[NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(e) Gaseous water vapour can condense and amalgamate with either, other water
vapour molecules and/or other liquid water molecules to grow clouds, mists or
fogs
[NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(f) Gaseous water vapour can transform straight to ice crystals or snow particles
without going through the liquid phase (sublimation: latent heat transfer)
[NOT a greenhouse gas effect]

4. PRECIPITATION
(a) Miniscule water droplets can amalgamate to form larger, less buoyant water
droplets and then fall by gravity as rain
(b) [NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
 (c) Water droplets can freeze and amalgamate to form larger, less buoyant ice and
snow particles and precipitate towards the planet’s surface
[NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(d) Large falling rain droplets can pass through a cold atmospheric layer and freeze
to form ice crystals or snow particles
[NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(e) Snow particles or ice crystals can melt and produce liquid cold rain by energy
absorption, or transfer straight to water vapour
[NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(f) Raining water droplets can vaporise to form water vapour either by thermal
energy transfer and/or by mass transfer driving forces (unsaturated local
atmosphere) {termed ‘virga’: visible rainfall does not reach the ground}
[NOT a greenhouse gas effect]
(g) Falling ice and snow particles can, by sublimation, transfer directly to gaseous
water vapour
[NOT a greenhouse gas effect]

OTHER FACTORS

• Water vapour can increase or decrease in concentration without any temperature change, or
even when the temperature is lowered. These mechanisms are not widely understood and do
not require solar radiation directly, and are therefore NOT greenhouse effects
• Massive convective mixing operations worldwide in rain, winds, gales, storms, hurricanes,
tornadoes and more, must all be factored in. Either thermal driving forces caused by
temperature difference AND/OR mass transfer driving forces caused by concentration or
humidity differences, can cause large weather-change effects: NOT greenhouse effects
• It must also be pointed out that solar radiation can also DIRECTLY heat planet Earth and all
solid materials on it, and ‘excite’ various molecules so that they re-radiate long-wave thermal
energy (in addition to direct reflection of incoming solar radiation, and scattering of radiant
energy): NOT a greenhouse effect

Most importantly overall, it must be seen that there are not just temperature-gradient driving forces
(heat transfer) but also concentration-humidity driving forces (mass transfer). [Of course, there are also
momentum driving forces in convective mixing, and of course, pressure and density difference driving
forces]. These additional mechanisms cut right across the false notion that water vapour concentration
depends only on temperature rise which could possibly be caused by other greenhouse gases. Even
NASA misses this point (in some published web articles), as the water / water vapour system is seen
only to be a passive feedback greenhouse gas system (not a non-forcing action), caused by the earth
heating up. In some cases (Wikipedia), water vapour is wrongly excluded as an active and controlling
greenhouse gas altogether. In reality, it is by far the strongest GHG (water vapour is 96% of all
greenhouse gases in New Zealand; 25 times higher than carbon dioxide).

It is scientifically inaccurate and dishonest to isolate “radiation - low concentration/non-

condensable greenhouse GASES” without fully endorsing: {direct radiation - LIQUID water
interactions), {direct radiation – SOLID matter exchanges}, {radiation - water vapour
excitations}, as well as all the other thermal and non-thermal humidity driving forces in winds,
thermals, gales, rain, storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, Trade Winds, Jet streams, El Nino’s, La
Nina’s, atmospheric pollution, and incomplete combustion particulates. All are significant! The
impacting effects of ocean currents, ocean conveyors, cloud dynamics and sun spot activity,
must also be considered.
It is no wonder that simplified mathematical models fail to predict and grapple with all these
additional mechanisms in a climate change scenario. This is made worse by phase change
as well (liquid water >>> water vapour> liquid water >>> solid ice crystals >> liquid water or
vapour).
APPENDIX: ATMOSPHERIC GASES
SUMMARY of IMPORTANT TRUTHS and MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT GREENHOUSE GASES and
THE RADIATION MECHANISMS
We know that ALL the energy on earth originates from the SUN as solar energy and comes to earth as short-
wavelength radiation. Only 56% of ALL incoming solar radiation ever reaches the earth’s atmosphere. The
atmosphere now consists of: Nitrogen number 1; then Oxygen number 2; then Water Vapour number 3; then
Argon number 4. These four make up 99.8% of the entire atmosphere.

The atmosphere is never-ever dry as stated in textbooks or on the internet. Water vapour* (about 1%, 10,000
ppm in New Zealand), is the only greenhouse gas in the top 4 atmospheric gases (99.8%), and the only one in all
the atmosphere that condenses (phase changes). Number 5 atmospheric gas is carbon dioxide at a very low
concentration (0.04%) (410 ppm): man-made carbon dioxide even less (about 1/20, ~ 0.002%, <25 ppm). Water
vapour is 2 to 100 times higher in concentration (location dependent) than carbon dioxide, 5,500 times greater in
concentration than methane, and 33,000 times greater than nitrous oxide.

Not only is condensable water vapour at a far higher concentration than ALL other greenhouse gases combined, it
is about twelve times more effective in radiation absorption/emission. But water vapour does much more than just
interact with radiation! It is the only gas that changes phase: liquid to gas; gas to liquid or ice crystals! This
powerful mechanism dominates in many-more effects in evaporation, humidification, condensation and
precipitation processes; as well storms, gales, tornadoes and more.

In contrast, the non-condensable greenhouse gases {carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide} are very low in
concentration (less than 0.05% of the atmosphere combined), very poor in radiation absorption/emission, and
have virtually no effect on the 28 other heat transfer processes outlined above.

INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION [0.2 to 3 m]

1. Water Vapour: (0.5 to 4% atmospheric concentration) – 7 radiant energy absorption bands ... 5
strong. THREE times more effective than carbon dioxide with incoming solar radiation.
2. Carbon Dioxide: (0.04%) (0.038% natural: 0.002% man-made) – only 2 radiant energy
absorption bands; only 1 of these at 100% absorption, coinciding with water vapour
3. Methane: (0.00018% atmospheric concentration) - 1 miniscule radiant energy absorption band
(absorbs <10%)
4. Nitrous Oxide: (0.00003% atmospheric concentration) – 1 miniscule radiant energy absorption
band (absorbs <10%)

OUTGOING RE-RADIATION FROM EARTH [3 to 70 m]

1. Water Vapour: (0.5 to 4% atmospheric concentration) – radiant energy absorption bands cover
85% of the entire span. At least TWELVE times more effective that carbon dioxide with long-
wavelength re-radiation back from Earth (At the 100% absorption level, water vapour is 16 time
more effective)
2. Carbon Dioxide: (0.04%; man-made <0.002% atmospheric concentration) – only 2 additional
narrow radiant energy absorption bands in the long wavelength range
3. Methane: (0.00018% atmospheric concentration) - 2 small radiant energy absorption bands (All
far less than 100%)
4. Nitrous Oxide: (0.00003% atmospheric concentration) – 3 small radiant energy absorption
bands (All far less than 100%)

Dr Geoffrey G Duffy DEng, PhD, BSc, ASTC Dip., FRSNZ, FIChem E

Professor Emeritus: Chemical Engineering, University of Auckland June 2019