Equity Research

Result Update
Indofood CBP
Hold on for the ride
ICBP to acquire 100% stakes of Pinehill Company Limited (PCL) HOLD
ICBP has entered into CSPA to acquire 100% stakes of Pinehill Company Limited (PCL) with
a total value of USD2,998 mn (IDR44.4 tn). The first payment amounts is USD2,348 mn (to Current Price 8,950
be paid on completion date), while USD650 mn is to be retained by the buyer (to be paid on Price Target 9,700
April 2022), if the PCL meets the guaranteed earnings of USD128.5 mn (IDR1.9 tn), that has Upside/Downside +8.4%
been agreed.
BUY
26 May 2020
However, if the actual profit is less than the guaranteed profit, ‘an amount of 23 (PE target) x
difference in actual and guaranteed profit’ is deducted from the retained payment. Note that a
5% deviation from the guaranteed profit is acceptable. To fund the acquisition, USD300 mn
INDONESIA
(IDR4.4 tn) will be obtained from ICBP’s internal cash and the rest will be from bank loans.
Note that ICBP’s cash stood at IDR8.9 tn in 1Q20. Consumer
09 May 2018

Assessing the plan: Is the acquisition earnings accretive?

We believe that in the short-term this acquisition could be a negative sentiment for ICBP, Stock Data
given the relatively deemed high target PE of 23x, compared to ICBP’s current PE of 18.1x. Bloomberg Ticker ICBP IJ Equity
The key on whether the acquisition is earnings accretive or not lies on both Pinehill’s Outs. Share (bn) 11.66
earnings (whether the guaranteed profit can be fully achieved) as well as the debt structure Mkt Cap (Rp bn) 97,085
and interest rate, in our view. According to our rough calculations, this acquisition might be 52 Week Range (Rp) 8,125-12,550
potentially earnings accretive, where if guaranteed profit is achieved by 100%, ICBP’s post 6M Avg Val (Rp bn) 59.2
acquisition earnings can be higher by 10.2% (assuming 4% interest rate). Nevertheless, this YTD Returns (%) -25.3
acquisition could raise ICBP’s debt-to-equity ratio to 1.1x (currently: 0.1x). Beta (x) 0.8

ICBP 1Q20’s results - core earnings came in-line

ICBP posted IDR1.9 tn of 1Q20 earnings (+48.3% yoy, +71.9% qoq), accounting to 37% of
ours and street’s estimates, respectively. This earnings jump was primarily attributable to the
forex gain ICBP recorded, which amounted to IDR584 bn (under other operating income) and
Share Price Performance
also on lower tax rate. If we exclude the forex gain, ICBP’s core-earnings was up by 14.9% (IDR/Share)
yoy, relatively in-line with our estimate (29% achievement). On the other hand, ICBP booked
solid revenue of IDR12 tn (+6.7% yoy, +26.3% qoq) in 1Q20, in-line with ours and streets’
estimates with 26% achievements, respectively.

Downgrade to HOLD with TP of IDR9,700/share

Following ICBP’s in-line result, we only make adjustment for lower income tax rate, which
leads to 6.4% and 9.3% increase in our 2020F/2021F earnings estimates. At this stage, we
have not adjusted our model to fully capture in the impact of the acquisition plan. In the
medium-term, however, we believe that ICBP’s performance will remain solid, given its strong
brand equity and pricing power of its noodle products, despite the fear of declining consumer
purchasing power, especially in the mass-market segment. However, as we think that the
acquisition plan could result in short-term headwinds for ICBP, we decided to downgrade our
rating for ICBP to HOLD from BUY, with a lower TP of IDR9,700/share (pegged at 19.9x or at
-1.5 std. deviation of its five-year mean).

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS
Share Performance (%)
(IDR bn) 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Month Absolute Relative
Revenue 38.413 42.297 45.338 49.271 53.750 3M -17.3 -5.4
6M -21.3 -4.6
EBITDA 7.152 8.281 8.315 9.164 9.973 12M -6.5 12.5
Net income 4.576 5.039 5.700 6.412 7.146
EPS grow th (%) 20,5 10,1 13,1 12,5 11,4
PER (x) 22,8 20,7 18,3 16,3 14,6
JENNIFER WIDJAJA
PBV (x) 4,6 3,9 3,5 3,1 2,8
jennifer.widjaja@sucorsekuritas.com
EV/EBITDA (x) 14,3 12,0 11,7 10,3 10,5 +62 21 8067 3130
Dividend yield (%) 2,2 1,5 2,5 3,0 3,4
Net gearing (x) (0,1) (0,2) (0,3) (0,3) (0,4)
 Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020

ICBP to purchase 100% stakes of Pinehill Company Limited (PCL)

On 22 May 2020, ICBP has entered into CSPA with Pinehill Corpora Limited (affiliated
company) and Steel Lake Limited (non-affiliated company) to acquire 100% stakes of Pinehill
Company Limited (PCL).

Transaction value & terms: A total value of USD2,998 mn (IDR44.4 tn), divided into two
payment phases. The first payment amounts to USD2,348 mn (to be paid on completion date),
while USD650 mn is to be retained by the buyer (to be paid on April 30, 2022), if the PCL
meets the guaranteed earnings (USD128.5 mn or IDR1.9 tn) that has been agreed. This also
means that PCL’s earnings should grow by 66% yoy from its 2019’s earnings figure. If the
actual profit in 2020-2021 is less than the guaranteed profit, ‘an amount of 23 (PE target) x
difference in actual and guaranteed profit’ is deducted from the retained payment. Note that a
5% deviation from the guaranteed profit is still acceptable and that there is no upward
adjustment if the actual profit exceeds the guaranteed profit.

Funding source: To fund the acquisition, USD300 mn (IDR4.4 tn) will be obtained from
ICBP’s internal cash and the rest will be from bank loans. Note that in 1Q20, ICBP’s cash
stood at IDR8.9 tn.

Pre-conditions: ICBP will conduct an Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders (EGMS)

no later than August 28, 2020, in order to seek the shareholders’ approval. Meanwhile, as the
acquisition is deemed not to have conflict of interest, approval from independent shareholders
is not needed. INDF’s parent company, First Pacific Company Limited also needs to seek
approval from its shareholders’ approval at the EGMS.

A brief information about Pinehill Company Limited (PCL)

Pinehill Company Limited (PCL) produces and sells instant noodle under the ‘Indomie’
trademark under the licensing agreement with INDF, in 8 countries (Saudi Arabia, Nigeria,
Turkey, Serbia, Ghana, Morocco, Kenya and Egypt). Currently, PCL has 12 plants with a total
production capacity of 10 billion packs/year. As of 2019, PCL’s revenue/profit before tax/core
profit reached USD533.5 mn/USD125.0 mn/USD77.6 mn. PCL’s book value was at USD246.3
mn, while it was in a net cash position of USD67.5 mn with zero bank debt.

Assessing the plan: Is the acquisition earnings accretive?

We believe that in the short-term this acquisition could be a negative sentiment for ICBP, given
the relatively deemed high target PE of 23x, compared to ICBP’s current PE of 18.1x.
However, the key on whether the acquisition is earnings accretive or not lies on the (1)
Pinehill’s earnings (whether it can achieve the guaranteed profit or not) (2) the debt structure
and interest rate. According to our rough calculations, if the guaranteed profit is fully achieved,
this acquisition might be potentially earnings accretive and ICBP’s post acquisition earnings
can be higher by 10.2% (assuming 4% interest rate). Nevertheless, what concerns us is that,
this acquisition could raise ICBP’s debt-to-equity ratio to 1.1x (1Q20: 0.1x).

However, on a longer time-frame, we believe that this acquisition is positive for ICBP’s, given
the fact that PCL operates in countries where instant noodle consumption/capita is still very
low, at only 12 packs/person/ year on average. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, instant noodle market
has been considered as saturated. Moreover, we believe that PCL’s market share dominance,
well-established business and knowledge on local market should offer ICBP benefits and that
execution risks should be lower. PCL’s target market size is also a lot larger than Indonesia,
where the total population in those 8 countries amounts to 550 mn people.

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 Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020

Fig 1: Rough calculation if PCL managed to fulfill the guaranteed earnings target by 100%
(in IDR bn) ICBP - 2020F forecasts Pinehill only Combined - Post acquisition Assumptions

Revenue 45.338 15.405 58.409 Assuming net margin of 8,1% (from earnings target)
Operating profit 7.310 3.235 10.806 Assuming operating margin of 21%

Other operating income (expense) - net 159 - 159

Finance income (expense) - net 327 - (1.273) Assuming interest rate of 4% for USD bank loan
Others (114) - (334) Assuming interest income drop by 5%

Profit before tax 7.681 3.235 9.358

Income tax (1.920) (890) (2.573) Assuming tax rate of 27,5%
Minority interest 61 444 505

Net income 5.700 1.902 6.279 Pinehill guaranteed earnings target if achieved by 100%

Impact to earnings 10,2%

Source: Sucor Research

Fig 2: Rough calculation if PCL managed to fulfill the guaranteed earnings target by 95%
(in IDR bn) ICBP - 2020F forecasts Pinehill only Combined - Post acquisition Assumptions

Revenue 45.338 14.637 57.641 Assuming net margin of 8,1% (from earnings target)
Operating profit 7.310 3.074 10.664 Assuming operating margin of 21%

Other operating income (expense) - net 159 - 159

Finance income (expense) - net 327 - (1.273) Assuming interest rate of 4% for USD bank loan
Others (114) - (334) Assuming interest income drop by 5%

Profit before tax 7.681 3.074 9.216

Income tax (1.920) (845) (2.534) Assuming tax rate of 27,5%
Minority interest 61 421 483

Net income 5.700 1.807 6.199 Pinehill earnings target if achieved by 95%

Impact to earnings 8,8%

Source: Sucor Research

Fig 3: Rough calculation if PCL managed to fulfill the guaranteed earnings target by 80%
(in IDR bn) ICBP - 2020F forecasts Pinehill only Combined - Post acquisition Assumptions

Revenue 45.338 12.328 55.332 Assuming net margin of 8,1% (from earnings target)
Operating profit 7.310 2.589 10.236 Assuming operating margin of 21%

Other operating income (expense) - net 159 - 159

Finance income (expense) - net 327 - (922) Assuming interest rate of 4% for USD bank loan
Others (114) - (334) Assuming interest income drop by 5%

Profit before tax 7.681 2.589 9.139

Income tax (1.920) (712) (2.513) Assuming tax rate of 27,5%
Minority interest 61 355 416

Net income 5.700 1.522 6.210 Pinehill earnings target if achieved by 80%

Impact to earnings 8,9%

Source: Sucor Research

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 Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020

ICBP 1Q20’s results - core earnings came in-line

ICBP posted IDR1.9 tn earnings (+48.3% yoy, +71.9% qoq), accounting to 37% of ours and
street’s estimates, respectively. This earnings jump was primarily attributable to the forex gain
ICBP recorded, which amounted to IDR584 bn (under other operating income) and also on lower
tax rate. If we exclude the forex gain, ICBP’s earnings was up by 14.9% yoy. Thus, ICBP’s core
earnings was still relatively in-line with our estimate (29% achievement).

Revenue remains solid, in-line with estimate

On the other hand, ICBP booked solid revenue of IDR12 tn (+6.7% yoy, +26.3% qoq) in 1Q20,
relatively in-line with ours and streets’ estimates with 26% achievements, respectively. All of
ICBP’s divisions booked positive revenue growth in 1Q20, except its beverage division, which
revenue declined by 9.2 % yoy.

Food seasoning & snack division’s volume growth jumped, while noodle’s decelerated
The strongest revenue growth came from its food seasoning division (27.0% yoy), followed by
nutrition & special food (+14.9% yoy), dairy (+9.1% yoy), snack food (+7.8% yoy) and noodle
(+6.5% yoy). Meanwhile, volume wise, volume growths were strong for both food seasoning and
snack food, up by 26% yoy and 20% yoy, respectively, which we think was benefited from the
work-from-home scheme. Volume for dairy remained stable, up by 6% yoy, while noodle volume
growth decelerated to 3% yoy, given higher base effect from last year, in our view. On the other
hand, both nutrition and beverage divisions saw 7% yoy and 4% yoy volume decline.

Margins expanded across the board, supporting overall profitability

Margin wise, margins were all seen expanding with its gross margin, reaching its all-time high,
recorded at 34.8% in 1Q20 (FY19: 34.1%, 1Q19: 33.7%). Meanwhile, operating margin expanded
by 120 bps. We believe that this is attributable to price adjustments, favorable raw material prices
combined with operational leverage. Meanwhile, NPM was seen at 16.5%, up by 460 bps yoy.

Segment wise, noodle division’s EBIT margin decelerated to 20.5% in 1Q (vs. 1Q19: 21.3%,
4Q19: 21.3%), despite ASP adjustments that occurred in early of the year. Meanwhile, dairy’s
EBIT margin was recorded at 17.0%. On the other hand, both beverage and snack division posted
their positive EBIT margins for the two consecutive quarters.

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 Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020

Fig 4: ICBP’s 1Q20 results

IDR (bn) 1Q20 1Q19 yoy 1Q20 4Q19 qoq 2020F Achv.
Net sales 12.007 11.256 6,7% 12.007 9.506 26,3% 45.338 26%
COGS (7.824) (7.468) 4,8% (7.824) (6.361) 23,0%
Gross profit 4.183 3.788 10,4% 4.183 3.145 33,0% 14.847 28%
GPM (%) 34,8 33,7 1,2 34,8 33,1 1,8

Selling expenses (1.389) (1.322) 5,1% (1.389) (1.054) 31,8%

G&A expenses (599) (538) 11,3% (599) (485) 23,4%
Operating expenses (1.988) (1.860) 6,9% (1.988) (1.539) 29,2%

Operating profit 2.195 1.928 13,8% 2.195 1.606 36,7% 7.310 30%
OPM (%) 18,3 17,1 1,2 18,3 16,9 1,4

Other operating income 667 104 542,8% 667 145 359,2%

Other operating expenses (62) (77) -18,9% (62) (158) -60,6%
Finance income 88 55 59,5% 88 153 -42,7%
Finance expenses (91) (45) 102,8% (91) (43) 112,5%
Final tax on interest income (18) (9) 108,2% (18) (15) 17,5%
Share result of associates (24) 1 N.A (24) (3) 623,2%
Total other income (exp.) 560 29 1809,3% 560 79 612,5%

Pre-tax profit 2.755 1.957 40,7% 2.755 1.685 63,5% 7.681 36%
Tax (650) (538) 20,9% (650) (445) 46,2%
-23,6% -27,5% 51,2% -23,6% -26,4% 72,8%
Profit before tax 2.104 1.419 48,3% 2.104 1.240 69,7%
Minority interest 122 82 48,6% 122 87 40,9%
Net profit 1.982 1.337 48,3% 1.982 1.153 71,9% 5.356 37%
NPM (%) 16,5 11,9 4,6 16,5 12,1 4,4

Source: Bloomberg, Sucor Research

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 Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020

Fig 5: ICBP’s operating data

Operating Data 1Q20 1Q19 yoy 1Q20 4Q19 qoq
Noodle
Revenue (Rp bn) 7.939 7.452 6,5% 7.939 6.047 31,3%
EBIT (Rp bn) 1.625 1.586 2,4% 1.625 1.289 26,0%
EBIT margin (%) 20,5 21,3 (0,8) 20,5 21,3 (0,9)

Dairy
Revenue (Rp bn) 2.240 2.054 9,1% 2.240 2.052 9,1%
EBIT (Rp bn) 381 335 13,5% 381 260 46,4%
EBIT Margin (%) 17,0 16,3 0,7 17,0 12,7 4,3

Food Seasoning
Revenue (Rp bn) 855 673 27,0% 855 475 80,0%
EBIT (Rp bn) 63 75 -16,6% 63 13 397,9%
EBIT margin (%) 7,3 11,2 (3,8) 7,3 2,6 4,7

Snack
Revenue (Rp bn) 769 714 7,8% 769 559 37,5%
EBIT (Rp bn) 97 (29) N.A 97 22 342,2%
EBIT margin (%) 12,6 (4,0) 16,6 12,6 3,9 8,6

Nutrition
Revenue (Rp bn) 256 223 14,9% 256 282 -9,1%
EBIT 14 9 54,5% 14 14 -3,5%
EBIT margin (%) 5,4 4,0 34,4% 5,4 5,1 0,3

Beverages
Revenue (Rp bn) 412 454 -9,2% 412 422 -2,3%
EBIT (Rp bn) 17 (47) N.A 17 7 139,7%
EBIT margin (%) 4,1 (10,3) 14,4 4,1 1,7 2,4

Source: Bloomberg, Sucor Research

Downgrade to HOLD with TP of IDR9,700/share

Following ICBP’s in-line result, we only make adjustment for lower income tax rate, which
leads to 6.4% and 9.3% increase in 2020F/2021F earnings. At this stage, we have not
adjusted our model to fully capture in the impact of the acquisition plan. In the medium-term,
however, we believe that ICBP’s performance will remain solid, given its strong brand equity
and pricing power of its noodle products, despite the fear of declining consumer purchasing
power, especially in the mass-market segment. However, as we think that the acquisition plan
could result in short-term headwinds for ICBP, we decided to downgrade our rating for ICBP to
HOLD from BUY, with a lower TP of IDR9,700/share (pegged at 19.9x or at -1.5 std. deviation
of its five-year mean).

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 Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020

Fig 6: ICBP’s revenue breakdown (1Q20) Fig 7: ICBP’s revenue growth

Source : Company Source : Sucor Research, Company

Fig 8: ICBP noodle divisions’ revenue & EBIT margin Fig 9: ICBP’s margins trend

Source : Sucor Research, Company Source : Sucor Research, Company

Figure 10: ICBP’s net profit and growth Figure 11: ICBP’s PE band – trading below -2 std. deviation

Source : Sucor Research, Company Source : Bloomberg, Sucor Research

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 Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020

Fig 12: PCL’s market shares in countries it operates Fig 13: Population in countries PCL operates

Source : Company Source : Company

Fig 14: PCL’s sales volume in countries it operates Fig 15: Consumption/capita in countries PCL operates (packs)

Source : Company Source : Company

Fig 16: PCL’s ownership structure Fig 17: ICBP’s share price movement on previous affiliated transactions

March 2019 – ICBP acquire land worth IDR1.8 tn

(share price fell 13%, rebounded in June)

June 2017 – ICBP paid IDR1 tn for land acquisition

(share price fell by 3%, rebounded in 7 days)

Source : Company Source : Bloomberg, Company

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 Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020

Appendix
Fig 18: Income statement and balance sheet
Profit & Loss (IDR bn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F Balance Sheet (IDR bn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F
Revenue 38.413 42.297 45.338 49.271 53.750 Cash and equivalents 4.727 8.359 9.696 12.367 15.340
Cost of revenue (26.148) (27.893) (30.491) (33.102) (35.994) Trade receivables 4.271 4.132 4.223 4.600 5.012
Gross profit 12.266 14.404 14.847 16.168 17.757 Inventories 4.001 3.841 4.260 4.625 5.029
Operating expenses (6.494) (7.126) (7.538) (8.224) (9.110) Net- Fixed assets 10.742 11.342 12.085 12.841 13.667
Operating profit 5.772 7.278 7.310 7.945 8.647 Other assets 10.626 11.035 11.919 12.260 12.585
EBITDA 7.152 8.281 8.315 9.164 9.973 Total Assets 34.367 38.709 42.184 46.694 51.634
Other op. income/exp 647 74 108 193 207 Trade payables 3.706 3.258 3.843 4.172 4.536
Finance income 313 289 419 415 423 Short-term debt + CMLTD 1.107 654 511 477 445
Final tax on interest income (59) (43) (63) (62) (63) Long-term debt 667 1.695 557 609 518
Finance expenses (226) (161) (92) (74) (72) Other liabilties 6.180 6.432 7.525 8.293 9.300
Pre-tax profit 6.447 7.437 7.681 8.416 9.142 Total Liabilities 11.660 12.038 12.436 13.549 14.799
Tax expense (1.788) (2.077) (1.920) (1.936) (1.920) Minority interest 1.088 1.370 1.431 1.500 1.577
Minority interest 83 321 61 69 77 Paid capital 6.569 6.569 6.569 6.569 6.569
Net profit 4.576 5.039 5.700 6.412 7.146 Retained earnings 15.030 18.495 21.565 24.895 28.510
EPS (IDR) 392 432 489 550 613 Other equities 21 237 183 180 180
Total Equity 22.707 26.671 29.749 33.144 36.835

Source: Company, Sucor Research

Fig 19: Cash flow and key ratios

Cash Flow (IDR bn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F Key Ratios (%) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F
Net income 4.576 5.039 5.700 6.412 7.146 Revenue growth 7,9 10,1 7,2 8,7 9,1
Depreciation & amortization 734 929 897 1.026 1.119 EBIT growth 7,3 26,1 0,4 8,7 8,8
Change in working capital (848) 521 1.032 334 542 EBITDA growth 26,4 15,8 0,4 10,2 8,8
Cash flow from operations 4.461 6.489 7.629 7.772 8.807 Net profit growth 20,5 10,1 13,1 12,5 11,4
Capex (3.355) (1.530) (1.640) (1.782) (1.944) Gross margin 31,9 34,1 32,7 32,8 33,0
Others (2.889) (903) (854) (319) (312) EBIT margin 15,0 17,2 16,1 16,1 16,1
Cash flow from investments (6.244) (2.433) (2.494) (2.102) (2.256) EBITDA margin 18,6 19,6 18,3 18,6 18,6
Changes in debt (94) 651 (1.175) 17 (123) Net margin 11,9 11,9 12,6 13,0 13,3
Changes in equity 152 498 7 66 77 ROA 13,3 13,0 13,5 13,7 13,8
Dividends paid (2.345) (1.573) (2.630) (3.082) (3.531) ROE 20,2 18,9 19,2 19,3 19,4
Others - - - - - Net gearing (x) (0,1) (0,2) (0,3) (0,3) (0,4)
Cash flow from financing (2.287) (424) (3.798) (2.999) (3.577) Net debt/EBITDA (x) (0,4) (0,7) (1,0) (1,2) (1,4)
Net Cash Flow (4.070) 3.632 1.337 2.671 2.973 Interest coverage ratio (x) 25,6 45,1 79,2 107,2 120,2

Source: Company, Sucor Research

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 Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020

Sucor Sekuritas rating definition, analysts certification, and important disclosure

Ratings for Sectors

Overweight : We expect the industry to perform better than the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
Neutral : We expect the industry to perform in line with the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
Underweight : We expect the industry to underperform the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months

Ratings for Stocks

Buy : We expect this stock to give return (excluding dividend) of above 10% over the next 12 months.
Hold : We expect this stock to give return of between -10% and 10% over the next 12 months.
Sell : We expect this stock to give return of -10% or lower over the next 12 months

Analyst Certification

The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report hereby certify that all of the views
expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or
issuers. The research analyst(s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

Disclaimers

This document has been prepared for general circulation based on information obtained from sources believed to be
reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. PT SucorSekuritasaccepts no liability
whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or any solicitations of an offer to buy
or sell any securities. PT SucorSekuritas and its directors, officials and/or employees may have positions in, and may
affect transactions in securities mentioned herein from time to time in the open market or otherwise, and may receive
brokerage fees or act as principal or agent in dealings with respect to these companies. PT SucorSekuritas may also seek
investment banking business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as
only a single factor in making their investment decision.

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 Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
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