VALUATION

FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20
EPS 21.29 26.53 30.93 34.78
PE 32.00 55.00 50.00 57.00
TGT 681.43 1459.21 1546.55 1982.36
Current Fair value 659.01 1342.15 1422.48 1982.36
MOS @
0.20 549.18 1118.46 1185.401271 1651.97049

Assumptions from FY 19 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20
Sales- Breakup
Home care 33% 33% 33%
Beauty & Personal Care 47% 47% 47%
Food & Refreshment 18% 18% 18%
Others 2% 2% 2%
Revenue Growth 11% 11%
Total Revenue Growth

Expense Breakup as a % of sales

Raw material expense 46% 46% 45%
Employee Benefit Expenses 5% 5% 5%
Advertising & Promotion 12% 13% 12%
Other operating expenses 13% 14% 13%
Operating margins 24.00% 23.00% 24.38%
Depreciation 1% 1% 1%
Finance cost 0.11% 0.11% 0.11%
Taxes 28% 28% 28%

STATEMENT FORECASTING FY 18 FY 19 FY 20
Revenue Breakup
Home care 11629 12874 14826.93
Beauty & Personal Care 16464 17800 21117.15
Food & Refreshment 6487 7131 8087.418
Others 624 1505 898.602
TOTAL OPERATING REVENUE 34511 39310 44930.1
Other revenue 1168 0 0
TOTAL REVENUE 35679 39310.00 44930.1

Expenses
Raw material expense 16303 17948 20272.46
Employee Benefit Expenses 1745 1747 2291.435
Advertising & Promotion 4105 4552 5391.612
Other operating expenses 5167 5328 6020.633
TOTA EXPENSE 27320 29575 33976.14
OPERATING PROFIT 8359 9735.00 10953.96
Depreciation 345.11 393.1 449.301
EBIT 8013.89 9341.9 10504.66
Finance Cost 37.9621 43.241 49.42311
EBT 7975.9279 9298.659 10455.23
Taxes 2233.2598 2603.6245 2927.466
EAT/PAT 5742.6681 6695.0345 7527.769
No Of Shares 216.45 216.45 216.45
EPS 26.531153 30.93109 34.77833

HUL Quarterly Numbers

Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19
SALES BREAKUP
Home care 3146.00 3080.00 3148.00 2.21%
 % of Total revenue 33.16% 33.35%
Beauty & Personal Care 4407.00 4316.00 4539.00 5.2%
% of Total revenue 46.5% 46.7%
Food & Refreshment 1785.00 1704.00 1728.00 1.4%
% of Total revenue 19% 18%
Others 149.00 134.00 143.00 6.72%
% of Total revenue 1.6% 1.5%
Revenues 9487.00 9234.00 9558.00 0.00
Segment EBT
Home care 602.00 492.00 404.00
% of Total revenue 6% 5%
Beauty & Personal Care 1162.00 1115.00 1162.00
% of Total revenue 12% 12%
Food & Refreshment 334.00 288.00 244.00
% of Total revenue 3.5% 3.1%
Others -2.00 2.00 -3.00
% of Total revenue -0.02% 0.02%
Total EBT 2096.22 1897.21 1807.00

EBITDA 1230.00 2324.00 2152.00

25.17% 22.52%
Depreciation 35.00 130.00 133.00
EBIT 1195.00 2194.00 2019.00
Interest 9.49 6.28 7.00
PBT 1291.51 2187.72 2012.00
Tax 276.00 627.00 506.00
PAT 1015.51 1560.72 1506.00
No of shares 216.45 216.45 216.45
EPS 4.69 7.21 6.96 #DIV/0!

SENSITIVITY SALES AND MARGINS

1982.36 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16%

18% 1930.3326 1947.6766 1965.021 1982.364585 1999.70858 2017.0526 2034.39658 2051.7406 2069.0846
19% 1930.3326 1947.6766 1965.021 1982.364585 1999.70858 2017.0526 2034.39658 2051.7406 2069.0846
20% 1930.3326 1947.6766 1965.021 1982.364585 1999.70858 2017.0526 2034.39658 2051.7406 2069.0846
21% 1930.3326 1947.6766 1965.021 1982.364585 1999.70858 2017.0526 2034.39658 2051.7406 2069.0846
22% 1930.3326 1947.6766 1965.021 1982.364585 1999.70858 2017.0526 2034.39658 2051.7406 2069.0846
23% 1930.3326 1947.6766 1965.021 1982.364585 1999.70858 2017.0526 2034.39658 2051.7406 2069.0846
24% 1930.3326 1947.6766 1965.021 1982.364585 1999.70858 2017.0526 2034.39658 2051.7406 2069.0846
25% 1930.3326 1947.6766 1965.021 1982.364585 1999.70858 2017.0526 2034.39658 2051.7406 2069.0846
26% 1930.3326 1947.6766 1965.021 1982.364585 1999.70858 2017.0526 2034.39658 2051.7406 2069.0846

Q3 FY 19 Q2 FY19 Q3 FY17 % Change % Change

Revenue 9357 9138 8323 2.40% 12.42%
Other operating revenue 201 96 267 109.38% -24.72%
Other Income 106 305 152 -65.25% -30.26%
Total 9664 9539 8742 1.31% 10.55%
Cost of raw material 3199 3343 3188 -4.31% 0.35%
Change in Inventory -118 -90 -51 31.11% 131.37%
Purchase of stock in trade 1337 1182 768 13.11% 74.09%
Employee Benefit 465 438 491 6.16% -5.30%
Advertising 1186 1106 1107 7.23% 7.14%
Other Expense 1443 1236 1407 16.75% 2.56%
Excise duty
Total Expense 7512 7215 6910 4.12% 8.71%
EBITDA 2152 2324 1832
Margin 22.27% 24.36% 20.96% -2.09% 1.31%
Depreciation 133 130 121 2%
 EBIT 2019 2194 1711
Finance Cost 7 7 5
EBT 2012 2187 1706
20.82% 22.93% 19.51%
Taxes 506 627 359
Net Profit 1506 1560 1347 12%
Margin 15.58% 16.35% 15.41% 0.18%
 Er(e) 10.80%
Cost of capital 10.56%