IADC/SPE 62796
Time-Dependent Wellbore (In) Stability Predictions: Theory and Case Study
Y. Abousleiman, SPE, The University of Oklahoma, (On leave from the Lebanese American University, Byblos, Lebanon),
S. Ekbote, The University of Oklahoma, U. Tare, SPE, Halliburton Energy Services Inc.
Copyright 2000, IADC/SPE Asia Pacific Drilling Technology
This paper was prepared for presentation at the 2000 IADC/SPE Asia Pacific Drilling
Technology held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 11–13 September 2000.
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review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents of the
paper, as presented, have not been reviewed by the International Association of Drilling
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Abstract
Time-dependent wellbore (in)stability during oil and gas
drilling account for a significant amount of lost rig time and
substantially increased drilling costs ($700 million annually
according to conservative estimates). Coupled time-dependent
processes have been previously described in the realm of the
poroelasticity theory. This wellbore (in)stability modeling
approach allows the drilling engineer to systematically include
the stress variation around the wellbore and the associated
rock deformation and pore pressure changes. In this paper, in
addition to the analyses conducted on the previously derived
solutions for thermal and pore fluid diffusion, the time-
dependent solution for stresses and pore pressures considering
the mud and formation shale activities are presented. These
solutions are the basis of the software, PBORE-3D, which
utilizes contemporary programming techniques and can
perform analyses of stress/pore pressure, formation failure,
mud weight, and mud-salinity design for drilling shale
formations. The model is especially useful in the prediction
and visualization of time-dependent break-outs created due to
inadequate mud weights; as well as time-dependent alteration
of the near wellbore stress concentration caused by excessive
mud weights leading to lost circulation problems. A case study
is presented in this work which demonstrates the
straightforward application of the model to challenging
drilling conditions.
Introduction
It is well established that time-dependent processes are
responsible for instability and failures in wellbore drilling.
Time-dependency in wellbore stability analysis is a result of
the coupled phenomena of pore fluid diffusion and formation
stress variation. This coupled diffusion-deformation
phenomenon is explained on the basis of the theory of
poroelasticity.1
Cost effective and successful drilling requires that the
drilling fluid pressure be maintained within a tight mud-
weight window dictated by the stress and pressure analyses
around the wellbore. The time-dependent nature of the stress
and pore pressure variation around the wellbore results in the
mud-weight window varying with time. The gradient of
temperature between the drilling mud and the rock formation
is also an important issue in wellbore stability analyses. The
temperature gradient will significantly affect the time-
dependent stresses and pore pressure distributions around the
wellbore. In addition, mud salinity and formation exposure
time need to be considered while drilling in chemically
reactive formations such as shale, using a water based mud
(WBM).
Analytical solutions for inclined boreholes in a general
three-dimensional in-situ state of stress, accounting for time-
dependent fluid diffusion, thermal and chemical effects, have
been published and extensively applied in evaluating potential
time-dependent effects on wellbore stability.2, 3 These
solutions are implemented in software, PBORE-3D, developed
for industry application. The solutions can perform analyses of
stress/pore pressure, formation failure, mud weight and mud
salinity design for drilling in shale formations.3, 4 The software
also treats the thermal and viscous effects.5, 6
In this paper, the poromechanics approach used in
obtaining solutions for the inclined borehole problem, which
form a basis for the models in PBORE-3D, is described.
Further, PBORE-3D is used for evaluating time-dependent
effects on wellbore stability for a field case study.
Poromechanics Approach to the Inclined Wellbore
Problem:
The effects of coupled diffusion-deformation (poroelasticity),
temperature gradients (porothermoelasticity), chemical
activity (porochemoelasticity), viscous mass rheology
(poroviscoelasticity), and combinations of these can be
brought under the umbrella of poromechanics.7
2 Y. ABOUSLEIMAN, S. EKBOTE, U.TARE
In poromechanics, the coupling of solid matrix/grain
deformation and pore fluid flow is governed by the following
constitutive equations:
σ ij = Dijkl ε kl − α ij p − β ij T ..................................(1)
p = M (ζ − α ij ε ij + β m T ) ....................................(2)
Eq. (1) describes how the overall strains of the porous rock
rely on the applied total stresses, the pore pressure weighted
by Biot's effective stress parameter αij, and the temperature
gradient weighted by the thermic coefficient βij. Eq. (2), on the
other hand, indicates that the pore pressure is not only related
to the pore fluid content variation, ζ, but is also affected by the
deformation of the porous body and the change in
temperature. It should be noted that under isothermal
conditions the terms βijT and βmT do not contribute.
The chemical effects are incorporated via the concept of a
chemical potential.8 The chemical potential, which is a
function of the activity and temperature, is obtained using the
following equation:
µ w = pVw + RT ln(a w ) ……...................................(3)
As indicated,8, 9 µw/Vw plays the role of a modified
pressure. The constitutive equations incorporating chemical
effects can therefore be written in terms of the chemical
potential.
Eqs.(1)-(3) are combined with balance and conduction
laws to yield field equations. The governing equations for the
poromechanics models are then given as follows:
• Equilibrium Equations (Momentum Balance):
σ ij , j = 0 ………………………………...……………(4)
• Continuity Equation (Mass balance):
∂ζ
+ q i, i = 0 ………………………………...………(5)
∂t
• Thermal Energy Balance:
 ∂T 
Ch  + h i, i = 0 ………………………...………(6)
 ∂t 
• Darcy’s law:
q i = − κ ij p , j ………………………………...………(7)
• Fourier’s Law:
h i = − λ ij T , j ………………………………...………(8)
The foregoing equations, (1)-(8), are written using the
Einstein summation convention for a general anisotropic
case.10, 11
The inclined wellbore problem assumes that the well is
deviated with respect to the directions of the in-situ stresses
IADC/SPE 62796
Sx’, Sy’ and Sz’. The formation pore pressure, temperature and
chemical potential are denoted by po, To and µo. Likewise, the
wellbore fluid pressure, temperature and chemical potential
are denoted by pw, Tw and µw.
The solution for an inclined borehole in an isotropic elastic
medium, was first presented by Bradley.12 The analytical
solution for the inclined wellbore problem in an isotropic
poroelastic medium was presented by Cui et al.2 The effect of
viscous mass rheology (poroviscoelastic)13, temperature
gradient, (porothermoelastic),6 chemical potential gradient
(porochemoelastic),3 and a combination of both these
(porochemothermoelastic)7 have also been incorporated in
subsequent formulations. All the aforementioned solutions
were developed for inclined boreholes under both penetrating
(permeable) and impermeable conditions at the borehole
wall.14, 15, 16 These two pressure/flow boundary conditions are
the most commonly used in wellbore stability analyses. These
solutions have also been extended to account for the
transversely isotropic nature of rock formations.10, 16
The magnitudes of stresses and pore pressure predicted by
the poromechanics models, were significantly different
compared to those from the conventional elastic models.
Time-delayed failures as observed in the field could be
predicted by the poromechanics models. In addition, these
models could also predict initiation of failures close to the
borehole wall, which contribute to wellbore breakouts.
The aforementioned solutions have been incorporated in
PBORE-3D. The software allows the design of a wellbore-
drilling program for mud-weight pressure windows, mud
salinity, and wellbore depth-gradient analysis. All these
analyses are a function of time. The extension of the solutions
to chemically active shale formations, and the analysis of mud
weight and salinity in an inclined borehole, renders PBORE-
3D a unique tool for wellbore drilling programs. The solutions
of theories of poroelasticity, porochemoelasticity,
porothermoelasticity, and poroviscoelasticity, as well as their
elastic, chemoelastic, thermoelastic, and viscoelastic
counterparts, are all included in PBORE-3D.3 These recently-
developed solutions corresponding to the poromechanics
aspect of the rock formation and drilling fluid, with their solid
mechanics equivalents, allow drilling engineers to make the
necessary decisions on potential critical time effects in drilling
as well as completions, (e.g., time of casing placement and/or
cementing).
Time-dependent Wellbore Stability: A Field Case
Study
An extended reach drilling (ERD) well was being drilled in
the North Sea with an oil based drilling fluid. The 17-½” in.
shoe was set at 4,900 ft true vertical depth (TVD) at an angle
of 75 degrees. From there a 12-¼” in. hole was drilled
smoothly to 14,924 ft measured depth (MD) (5,826 ft TVD),
with no real problems. At this point, hole pack-off incidents
IADC/SPE 62796 TIME-DEPENDENT WELLBORE (IN) STABILITY PREDICTIONS: THEORY AND CASE STUDY
were observed; and a decision was made to make a trip in
order to appropriately condition the hole. The pack-off and
tight spot problems continued henceforth throughout the
drilling and tripping operations for the 12-¼ in. open hole
section till 16,008 ft MD (5,997 ft TVD). A wiper trip out of
the hole proved difficult with continuing packing-off
problems. While attempting to re-enter the original hole a
ledge was encountered at 7,350 ft MD. Attempts were made to
drill through this ledge; however, despite drilling several
stands, the original wellbore was not found. At this point,
drilling was halted and borehole stability modeling was
performed. It was felt that a borehole stability analysis would
improve planning the mud program for the upcoming side-
track.
Because the formations drilled were mostly shales and
considering that borehole (in)stability problems were seen in
the 12 - ¼” in. wellbore, it was felt necessary to perform a
borehole stability analysis for the upcoming side-track. Its
purpose was to optimize the mud weight in the shale intervals.
A poromechanics approach was used for the borehole stability
analysis. The analysis performed incorporated various
considerations like mud pressure penetration effects and
chemical potential or osmotic effects. Three scenarios were
modeled:
• Neglecting chemical and mud penetration effects – This
case involved the traditional impermeable elastic type of
modeling approach and would predict mud weights that
are required to initially drill the formation.
• Including chemical effects – Here the mud system chosen
for the analysis invert emulsion oil based mud (IEOBM);
and the internal water phase salinity was optimized. This
optimization was followed by, incorporating the time-
dependent osmotic effects, which would tend to change
the mud weight requirements to drill the 12 - ¼” in.
interval.
• Including Mud Pressure Penetration Effects - In this type
of analysis, the effect of the hydraulic conductivity of a
oil based mud with a microfractured shale and the
influence of this phenomenon on the mud weight
requirements were modeled.
The shale pore fluid water activities were predicted from
a proprietary company model. Based on existing information,
the internal water phase salinity of the IEOBM was optimized.
The optimized salinity of the 80/20 oil water ratio (OWR) was
calculated to be 20% w/w CaCl2 (corresponding to a water
activity of 0.83) for this shale and drilling conditions. Having
obtained this information, a borehole stability analysis was
performed. The input parameters used are given in Table 1,
and a graphical presentation of the results is shown in Figures
1 – 12.
3
Modeling was done for 4,995 ft TVD. The majority of
hole problems were encountered at this depth, which is also
the depth at which the shales were thought to be weak in
compressive strength and naturally micro-fractured.
Figure 1 shows the upper and lower limit of the safe mud
weight for the modeled depths, without osmotic effects, as a
function of hole inclination angle. The upper limit in this case
is the mud weight above which extension fracturing or fracture
propagation could occur and result in excessive drilling fluid
losses. The lower limit is set by the formation pore pressure or
the minimum mud weight required to prevent borehole
collapse, whichever is greater.
Low permeability shales (i.e., 10-9 to 10-6 Darcy) lack the
protection of a filter cake because they do not experience
normal fluid loss from water-based muds at overbalance.
Instead, slow fluid filtrate invasion gradually (typically on the
order of days) equilibrates the mud pressure and the near
wellbore pore pressure, whereby effective mud pressure
support is lost. An identical phenomenon (but at a faster rate)
can be observed in microfractured shales. Shale material may
yield in shear or tensile mode due to this pore pressure
elevation. The elevation reduces the near-wellbore effective
stresses that hold the material together, thus resulting in
delayed failure.
For the case where mud pressure penetration effects are
considered, based on an equivalent mud weight of 13.8 ppg,
analysis shows that the critical region at the wellbore walls
progressively increases in size over time (Figs. 2-5). The
critical region shown in this modeling can be obtained from a
permeable poroelastic analysis. Figs. 6-9 show the surface of
the near wellbore tangential stress as a function of time for
two equivalent mud weights. At any point within the critical
region the effective stresses are very close to the peak strength
of the rock. At this point subsequent excessive swab would
cause the rock in the critical region to fail in circumferential
tensile mode. This failure will then result in fill on bottom and
would be the primary cause for severe hole pack-off
symptoms. As the near-wellbore pore pressure elevates, part
of the effective stress distribution nearly exceeds the
compressive strength of the rock and some other parts of the
wellbore may have a negative (tensile) effective stress
concentration. This concentration of negative stress could then
cause the wellbore to be susceptible to fail in compressive
shear mode (collapse) in one portion of the wellbore and
simultaneously fail in tensile mode (fracturing) at other
regions (Fig. 10). This distribution of stresses will have the
effect of compounding the time-delayed near-wellbore
deterioration.
An important point to note here is that the modeling for
mud pressure penetration considered an equivalent mud
weight of 13.8 ppg. If a mud weight of 11.7 ppg is utilized in
the analysis, lower tendencies for tensile failure are observed
for the same time intervals. Thus, the use of lighter mud would
4 Y. ABOUSLEIMAN, S. EKBOTE, U.TARE IADC/SPE 62796

result in minimal time dependent hole deterioration, which can

be observed in the time-dependent change of the near- p= pore pressure, m/LT2, MPa
wellbore effective tangential stress (see Figs. 11 and 12). The T= temperature deg C
distribution of the effective tangential stress around the M= Biot’s modulus, m/LT2, MPa
wellbore shows that higher static mud weight (13.8 ppg) puts ζ= pore fluid content variation
some portion of the effective tangential stress in tension. εij = overall strain tensor components
β m= thermic coefficient related to change in pore
It is very important to note, however, that when the pressure due to change in temperature /deg C
formation has just been drilled, a mud weight window that µw = chemical potential, ML2/T2, N.m
incorporates no mud pressure penetration effects will have to Vw = partial molar volume of water, L3, m3
be used for mud weight selection. The mud pressure R= universal Gas Constant
penetration effects are time dependent effects, which come aw = activity
into play when the drilling fluid has been in contact with the qi = specific discharge L/T, m/sec
shales for an extended period of time. Based on the above Ch= heat capacity of the bulk material cal/kg deg C
analysis, the subsequent side-track was drilled with a 12 ppg κij= permeability tensor components
static mud weight. This section was successfully drilled to
λij= thermal conductivity tensor components
target depth (TD) with very few borehole instability problems.
E= drained Young’s modulus, m/LT2, MPa
ν= drained Poisson’s ratio
Conclusions
The time-dependent nature of the wellbore instability problem νu = undrained Poisson’s ratio
was investigated using various poromechanics models. These Β= Skempton’s pore pressure coefficient
models which incorporate effects of thermal gradients, qi = specific discharge L/T, m/sec
chemical activity, and viscous rheology of rock formations, in κ= permeability, L2, md
the coupled diffusion-deformation analyses, are formulated as Sx’ ,Sy’ ,Sz’ = far-field stresses in x’y’z’ coordinate system,
extensions of Biot’s theory of poroelasticity. The time- m/LT2, MPa
dependent nature of the stress and pore pressure distributions
around the wellbore manifest as time-dependent wellbore Acknowledgments
stability. The inclined wellbore solutions, based on This work is supported by a National Science Foundation
poromechanics models, along with their conventional solid grant to the Rock Mechanics Research Center, the Oklahoma
mechanics counterparts, have been incorporated in the Center for the Advancement of Science and Technology, and
software, PBORE-3D. The solutions are all in analytical forms the Rock Mechanics Consortium at the University of
making PBORE-3D an efficient software for drilling engineers Oklahoma. The authors would like to acknowledge
to simulate “real time” analyses. Halliburton Energy Services for granting permission to
publish these results.
Application of PBORE-3D for a field case study for a well
in the North Sea has been demonstrated. Drilling operations
were successfully completed following a borehole stability
analysis using PBORE-3D. Time-dependency was observed in References
the failure analysis, in estimations of critical regions around 1. Biot, M.A.: “General theory of three-dimensional
the wellbore, and mudweight-window analyses. The study consolidation,” J. Appl. Phys., (1941), 12, 155.
2. Cui, L., Cheng, A. H-D., and Abousleiman, Y.: “Poroelastic
shows that time-dependency in wellbore stability can be solution of an inclined borehole,” ASME J. Appl. Mech., (1997),
critically examined adopting a poromechanics approach. 64, 32.
3. Abousleiman, Y., Ekbote, S., Cui, L., Mody, F., Roegiers, J.-C.,
and Zaman, M., “Time-dependent coupled processes in
wellbore design and stability: PBORE-3D, ” paper SPE 56759
presented at the 1999 SPE Annual Technical Conference and
Nomenclature Exhibition, Houston, October 3-6.
2
σij = total stress tensor components, m/Lt , MPa 4. Abousleiman, Y., Cui., L., Ekbote, S., Zaman, M., Roegiers, J.-
C., and Cheng, A.H-D., “Applications of time-dependent
Dijkl = drained elastic modulus tensor components,
pseudo-3D stress analysis in evaluating wellbore stability,” Int.
m/LT2, MPa J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. (1997) 34, No. 3-4, Paper No. 00001.
αij = Biot’s effective stress coefficient tensor 5. Abousleiman, Y. et al.: “Poroviscoelastic Analysis of Borehole
components and Cylinder Problems,” Acta Mechanica, (1996), 119, 199.
βij = Thermic coefficient tensor components related 6. Li, X., Cui, L., and Roegiers, J.-C., “Thermoporoelastic
to thermal expansion of solid skeleton modeling of wellbore stability in a non-hydrostatic stress field,”
Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sc. & Geomech. Abstr., (1998) 35, 4/5,
paper No. 829.
IADC/SPE 62796 TIME-DEPENDENT WELLBORE (IN) STABILITY PREDICTIONS: THEORY AND CASE STUDY 5

7. Ekbote, S., “Time-dependency in Poromechanics: Applications Table 1. List of input parameters for the borehole stability
to the borehole problem”, Ph.D Dissertation in preparation, The analysis.
University of Oklahoma. Parameter Value
8. Sherwood, J.D., “Biot poroelasticity of a chemically active Hole Size (inch) 12 ¼
shale,” Proc. R.. Soc. Lond. A, (1993), 440, 365. Modeled TVD-SS (ft) 4995
9. Sherwood, J.D., and Bailey, L., “Swelling of shale around a Overburden Stress Gradient, Sv (psi/ft) 0.78
cylindrical wellbore,” Proc. R. Soc. London A, (1994), 444, 161.
10. Abousleiman, Y. and Cui, L., “Poroelastic solutions in
Horizontal Stress Gradient, SH = Sh (psi/ft) 0.659
transversely isotropic media for wellbore and cylinder,” Int. J. Pore Pressure, Po (psi/ft) 0.452
Solids Structures, (1998), 35, 4905. Mohr-Coulomb Cohesion (psi) 124
11. Abousleiman, Y. and Ekbote, S. “Porothermoelasticity in Mohr-Coulomb Friction Angle (degrees) 25
transversely isotropic porous materials,” The IUTAM Young’s Elastic Modulus (psi) 890,000
Symposium on Theoretical and Numerical Methods in Poisson’s Ratio 0.32
Continuum Mechanics of Porous Materials, Stuttgart, Germany
Skempton’s Coefficient* 0.95
September 5-10, 1999.
12. Bradley, W.B.: “Failure of inclined boreholes,” ASME J. Energy Undrained Poisson’s Ratio* 0.43
Resour. Tech., (1979), 101, 232. Effective Permeability (mD)* 10-04
13. Ekbote, S., Cui, L. and Abousleiman, Y., “Poroviscoelastic Filtrate Viscosity (Poise)* 0.01
analysis of an inclined borehole,” Rock Mechanics Consortium Time Intervals 1 (days) 10-04
Report: RMC-98-03, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, Time Interval 2 (days) 0.1
May, 1998.
Time Interval 3 (days) 4
14. Cui, L., Abousleiman, Y., Cheng, A.H-D., and Roegiers, J.-C.,
“Time-dependent failure analysis of inclined boreholes in fluid- Time Interval 4 (days) 12
saturated formations,” ASME J. Energy Resour. Tech., (1999), * Estimated Value
121.
15. Cui, L., Ekbote, S., Abousleiman, Y., Zaman, M., and Roegiers,
J.-C., “Borehole stability analyses in fluid Saturated formations
with non-penetrating walls,” Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci.,
(1998), 35, No. 4/5, Paper No. 061.
16. Ekbote, S., Cui, L., and Abousleiman, Y., “Poroelastic solution
for inclined boreholes with arbitrary pore fluid conditions at the
borehole walls,” Rock Mechanics Consortium Report: RMC-98-
08, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, (November 1998).
17. Cui, L. Ekbote, S., and Abousleiman, Y., “Effect of the pore
fluid conditions at the borehole wall on borehole stability,”
Proc. of The 37th, U.S. Symposium on Rock Mechanics, Amadei
et al (eds.), Balkema, Rotterdam, (1999), 187.
18. Ekbote, S. Abousleiman, Y., and Zaman, M.,
“Porothermoelastic solution for an inclined borehole in
transversely isotropic porous media,” Paper accepted for
presentation at the Fourth NARMS, Seattle, Washington, July
30- August 2, 2000.

SI Metric Conversion Factors

cp × 1.0* E – 03 = Pa.s
ft × 3.048* E – 01 = m
ft2 × 9.290 304 E – 02 = m2
ft3 × 2.831 685 E – 03 = m3
in × 2.54 E + 00 = cm
Fig. 1 – Mud weight window as a function of the hole angle.
lbf × 4.448 333 E + 00 = N
md × 9.869 233 E – 04 = µ m2
psi × 6.894 757 E + 00 = kPa
6 Y. ABOUSLEIMAN, S. EKBOTE, U.TARE IADC/SPE 62796

Fig. 2 - Wellbore cross-section showing the critical region Fig. 4 - Wellbore cross-section showing the critical region
sensitive To collapse (compressive shear failure mode) after 10-04 sensitive To collapse (compressive shear failure mode) after4
days of drilling (mud weight = 13.8 ppg). days of drilling (mud weight = 13.8 ppg).

Fig. 3 - Wellbore cross-section showing the critical region Fig. 5 - Wellbore cross-section showing the critical region
sensitive to collapse (compressive shear failure mode) after 10-01 sensitive to collapse (compressive shear failure mode) after12
days of drilling (mud weight = 13.8 ppg). days of drilling (mud weight = 13.8 ppg).
IADC/SPE 62796 TIME-DEPENDENT WELLBORE (IN) STABILITY PREDICTIONS: THEORY AND CASE STUDY 7

Fig. 6 – Near-wellbore effective tangential stress surface for an Fig. 8 – Near-wellbore effective tangential stress surface for an
equivalent mud weight of 13.8 lb/gal after 10-04 days of drilling. equivalent mud weight of 11.7 lb/gal after 10-04 days of drilling.

Fig. 7 – Near-wellbore effective tangential stress surface for an Fig. 9 – Near-wellbore effective tangential stress surface for an
equivalent mud weight of 13.8 lb/gal after 12 days of drilling. equivalent mud weight of 11.7 lb/gal after 12 days of drilling.
8 Y. ABOUSLEIMAN, S. EKBOTE, U.TARE IADC/SPE 62796

Fig. 10 – Stress map showing the distribution of near-wellbore
tangential (hoop) stress for a mud weight of 13.8 lb/gal (note:
regions marked in red indicate susceptibility to failure in
compressive shear mode (collapse) and regions marked in light
green indicate susceptibility to failure in tensile mode (fracturing).
Fig. 12 - Effective tangential stress near the wellbore varying with
time for mud weight of 13.8 lb/gal. (Note: Portions of the curve
below the x-axis will fail in tensile (fracturing) mode).

Fig. 11 - Effective tangential stress near the wellbore varying with

time for mud weight of 11.7 lb/gal.