ZEMEN POSTGRADUATE COLLEGE

Department of Management
Program of Project Management

Project identification, analysis and appraisal Home Take

exercise

Prepared by Azanaw Tsegaw ID=ZPGC/049/2012

Dessie Amhara Ethiopia

June 2020
1. Assume you to write a project proposal for soybean oil refinery plant. Forecast the local raw
material availability for the plant? Below you are provided with Past 6-year Production of
soybean

Year Fat production in Fat production in using Fat production in tons

using Excel formula excel method linear using manual formula
l exponential a
method
2014 1,215.54 1,215.54 1,215.54
2015 1,368.09 1,368.09 1,368.09
2016 1,387.24 1,387.24 1,387.24
2017 1,542.19 1,542.19 1,542.19
2018 1,580.78 1,580.78 1,580.78
2019 1,740.58 1,740.58 1,740.58
2020 1767.53 1814.23 1824.24
2021 1929.41 1905.11 1924.77
2022 1962.64 2018.22 2025.3
2023 2119.45 2109.53 2125.83
2024 2150.27 2218.16 2226.36

Step1 ➔8,834.42=6a+b21 Step2 ➔32629.6=a21+b91

91b=32629.-21a=21b=8834.42-6a

(1553.79-a)21 = (1472.42-a)6=

91 21

➔a=118,708.01/105➔=11200.53

➔b=32629.6-21(a)/888.05➔=97.67 Y=a+bx=1130.55+100.53X

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 Demand
Y-Values

2226.36
2125.83
2025.3
1924.77
1824.24
1,740.58
1,542.19 1,580.78
1,368.09 1,387.24
1,215.54

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2014 1,215.54

2015 1,368.09

2016 1,387.24

2017 1,542.19

2018 1,580.78

2019 1,740.58

2020 1824.24

2021 1924.77

2022 2025.3

2023 2125.83

2024 2226.36

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 b=32629.58-6(3.5)*(1472.4)=➔-1.32
91-6((15.16*15.16)

a=1472.40-(-1.32*3.5)=➔1476.55

y=1472.4-1.32T

2. Assume you to write a project proposal for soybean oil refinery plant. Forecast the local
soybean oil production? Below you are provided with Past 6-year local Production of
soybean oil

Year Production (ton) Production (ton) Production (ton)

Excel formula l Excel formula manually
exponential a liner method
method

2014 52,458 52,458 52,458

2015 58,250 58,250 58,250
2016 52,879 52,879 52,879
2017 144,867 144,867 144,867
2018 132,345 132,345 132,345
2019 213,208 213,208 213,208
2020 219118 220,803 226406
2021 264059 265,182 258349
2022 307031 308,566 290293
2023 334625 336,622 322236
2024 378845 381,305 354180

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 Y=a+bx➔Y=2801.133+31943.51 T

Demand
Y-Values

354180
322236
290293
258349
226406
213,208

144,867
132,345

52,458 58,250 52,879

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2014 52,458
2015 58,250
2016 52,879
2017 144,867
2018 132,345
2019 213,208
2020 226406
2021 258349
2022 290293
2023 322236
2024 354180

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3. Assume you to write a project proposal for soybean oil refinery plant. Forecast the import
soybean oil? Below you are provided with Past 6-year imported soybean oil

Year Volume Excel Volume Excel Production (ton)

formula l formula liner manually
exponential a method
method

2014 42,410 42,410 52,458

2015 39,595 39,595 58,250

2016 31,930 31,930 52,879

2017 40,208 40,208 144,867

2018 59,053 59,053 132,345

2019 72,146 72,146 213,208

2020 80953.5 69,090 226406

2021 90495.3 80,701 258349

2022 100037 93,214 290293

2023 109579 101,760 322236

2024 119121 108,162 354180

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 y=14160.58+9441.84X

Demand
Y-Values

119120.82
109578.98
100037.14
90495.3
80953.46
72,146
59,053

42,410 39,595 40,208

31,930

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2014 42,410
2015 39,595
2016 31,930
2017 40,208
2018 59,053
2019 72,146
2020 80953.46
2021 90495.3
2022 100037.14
2023 109578.98
2024 119120.82

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4. Considering the local production and import soybean oil, you are required to do a total supply
projection of soybean oil in Ethiopia?

For simplistic and easier I use the excel linear formula

Year Local Production imported Volume Total

(ton) Excel formula Excel formula production
liner method liner method

2014 52,458 42,410 94,868

2015 58,250 39,595 97,845

2016 52,879 31,930 84,809

2017 144,867 40,208 185,075

2018 132,345 59,053 191,398

2019 213,208 72,146 285,354

2020 220,803 69,090 289,893

2021 265,182 80,701 345,883

2022 308,566 93,214 401,780

2023 336,622 101,760 438,382

2024 381,305 108,162 489,467

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5. Assume that the determinate of soybean oil demand is the population growth. Currently the
population size of our country is about 110,000,000 with a growth rate of 2.4 per annum. how
will be the next five-year demand projection of soybean oil in Ethiopia.

Soybean oil in
Year Population growth rate Population Year Ethiopia Demand
2020 110,000,000 2.4 2014 94,868
2021 112,640,000 2015 97,845
2022 115,343,360 2016 84,809
2023 118,111,601 2017 185,075
2024 120,946,279 2018 191,398
2025 123,848,990 2019 285,354
110000000 2020 289,893
112640000 2021 327,989
115343360 2022 380,463
118111601 2023 430,895
120946279 2024 464,185
123848990 2025 510,027

Y-Values

510,027
464,185
430,895
380,463
327,989

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

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6. Determine the next five-year demand-supply gap which will be available for the current
project?

Local
Production (ton) next five-
Excel formula year
liner method Soybean oil demand-
in Ethiopia supply
Population Year Demand gap
2014 52,458 94,868 42,410
2015 58,250 97,845 39,595
2016 52,879 84,809 31,930
2017 144,867 185,075 40,208
2018 132,345 191,398 59,053
2019 213,208 285,354 72,146
110000000 2020 220,803 289,893 69,090
112640000 2021 265,182 327,989 62,807
115343360 2022 308,566 380,463 71,897
118111601 2023 336,622 430,895 94,273
120946279 2024 381,305 464,185 82,880
123848990 2025 407164 510027 102,863

Summary
I have been observed different forecasting method from this above method
They do have advantage and limitation
It is better to use linear method of forecasting for the above assignment because population growth
and demand need of the oil increasing

Graphical Method: It is the simplest statistical method in which the annual sales data
are plotted on a graph, and a line is drawn through these plotted points.
Under this method a graph of historical data on the variable under forecasting is drawn, it is then
extrapolated visually up to the forecast period, and finally the value of the variable in the forecast
period is read out from the graph to yield the requisite forecast.

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Under this method, it is assumed that future sales will assume the same trend as followed by the
past sales records. Although the graphical method is simple and inexpensive, it is not considered
to be reliable. This is because the extension of the trend line may involve subjectivity and personal
bias of the researcher
The exponential trend is used when the data reveal that the total sales have increased over the
past years either at an increasing rate or at a constant rate per unit time.

• Many time series data concerning with business and economic activities showing constant
initial growth and not approaching certain upper limit can best be described by exponential
function.
The exponential form of equation may be of the following forms

• Assumes that the past rate of changes in variables will remain same in future too, which is
not applicable in the practical situations.
• 2. Fails to be applied for short-term estimates and where trend is cyclical with lot of
fluctuations
• 3. Fails to measure relationship between dependent and independent variables.
Moving average method
• According to this method, the forecast for the next period represents a simple arithmetic
average or a weighted arithmetic average of the last few observations.

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