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Problems and Perspectives in Management, Volume 6, Issue 1, 2008

SECTION 2. Management in firms and organizations


Tönu Puu (Sweden), Manuel Ruiz (Spain)

Investment decisions reconsidered: the case of imperfect capital


markets
Abstract
This paper reconsiders the theory of investment choice. Fisher (1907, 1930) and Hirshleifer (1958) suggested to base
the maximum present value criterion on general microeconomics (multi-period consumption theory). Only if invest-
ment decisions are separable from the decisions to choose consumption profiles over time, they argued whether in-
vestment calculations can be possible at all. Fisher and Hirshleifer considered them possible only if there was a perfect
capital market with one single rate of interest. Hirshleifer explicitly considered market imperfections where borrowing
and lending rates differed, and concluded that the maximum present value criterion did not work. In the present discus-
sion it is shown how one, while keeping their philosophy, can extend the discussion to such imperfect markets. Maxi-
mum capital value can still be applied as a criterion, but it is different for each permutation of borrowing and lending
rates over the lifetime of the investment, and separability only exists when the present values under all permutations
give the same ranking.
Keywords: investment decisions, capital value, imperfect markets.
JEL Classification: D92, G10.

Introduction perfect capital market. Hirshleifer (1958) makes


these issues very clear. Whenever the capital market
Criteria for investment choice remain a rather con-
is not perfect, as in the case of lending and borrow-
fused area of financial economics. First, there are
ing rates being different, separability would no
several criteria suggested: (i) Ranking by IRR (the
expected rate of return), also the “marginal effi- longer exist, and the capital value criterion loses its
ciency of capital” as suggested in Lord Keynes’s microeconomic foundation.
“General Theory” in 1936, (Keynes 1936); or (ii) Despite this, there has remained a lot of confusion
capital values, final or initial values, calculated as- about the proper rate of calculation to use in the case
suming some calculation interest rate. of imperfect capital markets. Some average of lend-
It has been recognized that ranking according to the ing and borrowing rates has been proposed, as has
internal rate may become problematic, as the poly- the use of some subjective “desired” rate of return
nomial equation defining its value may have several (See Schneider, 1944; Sir John Hicks, 1946; or
solutions (See, for instance, Boulding, 1934). Rank- Lutz, 1945, 1951). According to Hirshleifer, “solu-
ing of several different investment projects accord- tions to the problem ... proposed by Boulding,
ing to the internal rate criterion may further come in Samuelson, Scitovsky, and the Lutzes are ... at least
conflict with the maximum capital value criterion. in part erroneous. Their common error lies in
Whenever there is a conflict between the different searching for a rule or formula which would indi-
criteria, it is the capital value criterion that has prior- cate optimal investment decisions independently of
ity. This is because it alone can be put on a solid consumption decisions. No such search can suc-
microeconomic basis. This basis was described most ceed if Fisher's analysis is sound which regards
clearly by Irving Fisher (Fisher, 1907; Fisher, 1930) investment as not an end in itself but rather a proc-
in terms of multi-period consumption theory.11If ess for distributing consumption over time.”
investments are made to the end of redistributing Puu (1964, 1967) suggested that capital value calcu-
consumption expenditures over time, and the inves- lations could still be applied in imperfect capital
tors in addition to investment options have access to markets, though there were different permutations of
a perfect capital market, then the capital value crite- the lending and borrowing rates to use in the calcu-
rion establishes conditions for separability of the
lations, and only when one project dominated in
investment decision and any additional decision to
terms of all capital values did separability and ob-
borrow and lend in a perfect capital market so as to
jective investment decisions exist.
satisfy individual time preferences.
The calculation rate to use in those cases is quite obvi- This argument was presented in Sweden in 1964,
ous: it is the actual rate of interest of the assumed and, as the original proof was so messy, only part of
it was translated by Puu (1967) a few years later.
Like Fisher (1907, 1930) and Hirshleifer (1958),
© Tönu Puu, Manuel Ruiz, 2008. Puu (1964, 1967), left no trace at all, so the current
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Problems and Perspectives in Management, Volume 6, Issue 1, 2008

textbooks on financial economics appear as they did constant in all alternatives, we can absorb it in the
decades before, with almost nonexistent reference to xi to be compared, or suppress it altogether. We
Fisher’s argument about investment as not an end in can also reduce the comparison of two investments
itself but a means of redistributing consumption to an evaluation of the difference investment
expenditures over time.
x 2 − x1 = ⎡⎢⎣ x12 − x11 ,…, xm2 − x1m ⎤⎥⎦ .
To be quite precise, Puu (1964, 1967) considered
investment opportunities as single fixed options, In addition to choosing an investment, the consumer
whereas Fisher (1907, 1930) and Hirshleifer (1958) can also as a rule further transform the consumption
had considered smooth transformation curves repre- profile through choosing deposits and withdrawals
senting frontiers of multiple production possibilities. in a bank account. Denote such a sequence of trans-
There is, however no difference between consider- actions z = ⎡⎣⎢ z1 ,…, zm ⎤⎦⎥ , assuming payments only at
ing isolated options, single or multiple, or some
compact set, with or without a smooth boundary, as the ends of periods. Again there are negative ele-
long as just the separation theorem is at issue. ments (deposits) and positive ones (withdrawals), in
this case without any special structure such as posi-
1. Definitions and notation tive first and negative later. Unlike the case of in-
Consider m time periods, separated by m + 1 time vestments, which represent fixed options that one
points. Period t starts with time point t − 1 , and can take or leave, the bank transformations are rep-
ends with time point t . An investment is a sequence resented by a set of possible vectors z ∈ T , among
which the customer can choose. We call z a trans-
of payments xt , accruing at time points t . Hence, a
formation vector, and T the transformation set.
vector x = ⎡⎣⎢ x1 ,…, xm ⎤⎦⎥ represents an investment. It is
Let irt denote the applicable rate of interest during
understood that payments are made at the end of
each period. As a rule, the first payments for an time period t . Suppose we have two different rates
investment are negative (cost items) and the last are of interest, iS , the saving rate, applied when the
positive (revenue items). If we compare different
customer has a positive deposit, and iL , the loan
investments, we denote them by xi = ⎡⎢⎣ x1i ,…, xmi ⎤⎥⎦ .
rate, applied when the customer owes a loan to the
bank. Obviously iS < iL . For each period t , the
In addition to different investment options xi , the
consumer has a series of expected incomes applicable rate of interest rt can take either of these
y = ⎡⎢⎣ y1 ,…, ym ⎤⎥⎦ , given independently of the invest- values, rt ∈ {S , L} .
ment activity chosen, paid at time points t = 1,…, m .
We denote a sequence of applicable interest rates by
We assume that incomes are paid at the end of each
period, and that the period’s consumption expenditures r = ⎡⎣⎢ r2 ,…, rm ⎤⎦⎥ . As payments are made at the ends of
also occur at the same point of time. the periods, there is no payment at the beginning of
Investments provide a means of transforming the the first period to which we might want to apply r1 ,
expected incomes into different consumption pro- so we suppress this first element. (For instance, the
files over time c = y + x , where ct = yt + xt . Con- two period consumption model only uses one inter-
sumers value consumption profiles according to est rate.) As each period’s index rt can take two
some utility function U ( c ) , such that they always values S and L , the vector r denotes the whole
prefer more rather than less for each period. sequence of interest rates applied. Obviously,
r ∈ M = {S , L}
m −1
2 , and we will use r as an index
Remark 1. Obviously, a consumption profile c is
to specify how different capital values are calcu-
preferred to another one c c1 , formally c 2 f c1 ,
lated. There are 2m −1 different interest rate se-
whenever ct2 > ct1 , for some t , whereas ct2 < ct1 for
quences that can be applied.
no t . This is the case of Paretian dominance. As y
is the same in both cases, the inequalities could be Corresponding to an interest rate irt , we define an
⎛ ⎞
written in terms of xt2 xt1 . Paretian dominance sel- interest factor I rt = ⎜⎜1 + irt ⎟⎟ . Further we define the
⎝ ⎠

dom holds for one investment compared to another. multi-period interest factors, from period t to period
As a rule, large negative initial costs are compen- τ by X rt ,τ = I rt ⋅…⋅ I rτ . For the special case t = τ ,
sated by large later revenues, or modest intermedi-
ate revenues by very large final ones. As y is a we have X rτ ,τ = I rτ , and it is also convenient to
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Problems and Perspectives in Management, Volume 6, Issue 1, 2008

define X rτ +1,τ = 1 . Note that we specified the whole can be expressed by the condition:
sequence of interest rates r for identification, K r ( z ) = ∑ t =1 zt X rt +1,m ≤ 0 .
t =m
(4)
though some information is redundant whenever
t > 2 or τ < m . The set of transformation vectors z , which fulfil
Using the interest factors we can define the final this last condition will be denoted by Cr
capital values (calculated to the end of the last pe-
riod) of any transformation vector z: {
Cr = z ∈ R m K r ( z ) ≤ 0 . } (5)

K r ( z ) = ∑ t =1 zt X rt +1, m .
t =m
Accordingly, given a sequence of interest rates r , it
must hold that:
We can likewise define intermediate capital values
of the transformation vector z , including transac- z ∈ Br ∩ Cr .
tions only up to period τ :
But, we can choose any r ∈ M , so the full defini-
K rτ ( z ) = ∑ t =1 zt X rt +1,τ
t =τ
τ = 1,…, m − 1 . (1) tion of the admissible transformation set is:

Note that these are formal combinations of any T= U (B r ∩ Cr ) , (6)


r∈M
transformation vector z with any sequence of ap-
plied interest rates r ∈ M . It may be the case that a where any z ∈ T is admissible.
certain z does not go with an assumed r .
2. Derivation of T
The whole point of the capital value definitions is that
we want to use them to define the set of admissible The transformation set T = U (B r ∩ Cr ) is not
z , which we will call T , the transformation set. r∈M
very useful as stated, because it cannot be trans-
In order for a z to be feasible for a given r , we
formed to any simple criterion in terms of capital
require that:
values. To achieve this we prove the following theo-
⎪⎧ S if K r ( z ) ≤ 0
τ rem.
rτ +1 = ⎨ τ = 1,…, m − 1 . (2)
⎪⎩ L if K r ( z ) > 0
τ
Theorem 1.
T= U (B ∩ Cr ) = IC .
The rationale for this is that K rτ ( z ) denotes the r∈M
r
r∈M
r

negative of the customer’s balance with the bank.


The sign is reversed because positive zt are additions Proof. First we prove that IC r ⊆ U (B r ∩ Cr ) .
r∈M r∈M
to consumption and must hence be withdrawn from
Let z ∈ IC . Since from definition, the feasible
the bank account. So, when K rτ ( z ) is non-positive, r∈M
r

the saving rate is applied the following period, and transformation vectors Br together exhaust all pos-
when it is positive, the lending rate is applied. sibilities of saving and taking loans over the periods
A set of transformation vectors z which fulfils the considered, for any z there exist r 0 ∈ M such that
just stated conditions is feasible for the particular z ∈ Br0 and therefore z ∈ Br0 ∩ Cr0 , as desired.
interest rate vector r . We denote the set of feasible
transformation vectors Br ∩ Cr ) ⊆
Now we prove that U (B
r∈M
r IC
r∈M
r . Let

⎪⎧ ⎪⎧ S if K r ( z ) ≤ 0 ⎪⎫ ⎪⎫ .(3)
τ
Br = ⎨z ∈ R m rτ +1 = ⎨ ⎬ τ = 1,…, m − 1⎬ z ∈ U ( Br ∩ Cr ) . There exists r1 ∈ M such that
⎩⎪ L if K r ( z ) > 0 ⎭⎪
τ
⎩⎪ ⎭⎪ r∈M

In this way we are sure that always the correct rate


z ∈ Br1 ∩ Cr1 , i.e., with K r1 ( z ) ≤ 0 . For a proof by
of interest is applied depending on the sign of the contradiction, assume there exists r 2 ∈ M such that
bank account balance. z∈/ Cr 2 , i.e., K r 2 ( z ) > 0 . Then we have
However, in addition to the stated conditions, which
constrain recursively the zt from t = 1 to t = m − 1 K r 2 ( z ) − K r1 ( z ) > 0. (1)
that may be combined with a given r , there is also a
constraint which must be fulfilled by the last ele- On the other hand, since X rτ +1,τ = 1 it follows that
ment zt . It must at least clear the account, which K r 2 ( z ) − K r1 ( z ) is equal to:
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Problems and Perspectives in Management, Volume 6, Issue 1, 2008

m −1 m −1
K rτ1 ( z ) ≤ 0 , and rτ1+1 = L whenever K rτ1 ( z ) > 0 .
∑ z τ X rτ 2+1,m − ∑ zt X rt 1+1,m = z1 X r21,1 X r22,m +
τ =1 t =1
(2) We do not know anything about rτ2+1 , it can equal S
m −1 m −1
or L , but we know that iS < iL , so the same holds for
+ ∑z X τ
τ +1,τ τ +1,m
r1
Xr2 − ∑z X t
t +1,m
r1
.
τ =2 t =1 the interest factors (which are just 1 + iS and 1 + iL ).
Since
Accordingly, all the products K rτ1 ( z ) ⎜⎜⎜ I r 2 − I r1
⎛ ⎞

⎟ ≤0
⎝ τ +1 τ +1 ⎟⎠
m −1 m −1 τ


τ
zτ X τ
=2
r1
+1,τ
X rτ 2+1, m = ∑∑ z X
τ = 2 t =1
t
t +1,τ
r1
X rτ 2+1, m − for τ = 1,…, m − 1 , provided z ∈ Br1 . Hence

m −1 τ −1
(3) K r 2 ( z ) − K r1 ( z ) ≤ 0 yielding a contradiction with
− ∑∑
τ = 2 t =1
zt X rt 1+1,τ Xr2τ +1, m
, (1). This finishes the proof of the theorem.
Instead of the messy union of intersections (6),
substituting (3) in (2), and again using the fact that which could not be intellegiably explained in plain
X rm2 +1, m = 1 , we have words, we obtained a simple intersection through
Theorem 1, which can be explained in terms of sim-
K r 2 ( z ) − K r1 ( z ) ple capital value conditions. The transformation set
is defined as:
equal to:
m −1 τ
{
T = z ∈ R n K r (z ) = ∑ t =m t +1, m
t =1 zt X r ≤ 0, ∀r ∈ M },
z1 X r21,1 X r22, m + ∑∑
τ =2 t =1
zt X rt 1+1,τ Xr2τ +1, m

which means that it is the set of vectors z for which
m −1 τ −1 m −1 all capital values, calculated in all the n = 2m −1 pos-
− ∑∑ zt X rt 1+1,τ +1 X rτ 2+ 2, m − ∑ zt X rt 1+1, m X rm2+1, m . sible ways, by choosing the saving or the loan rent
τ=2 t =1 t =1 for each of the m − 1 periods, are non-positive.
Reorganizing and changing the summation index Note that, in a perfect capital market, the saving and
from τ − 1 to τ in the second double summand we loan rates coincide, and the conditions become iden-
obtain that tical. Then T is a linear half-space in R n , contain-
K r 2 ( z ) − K r1 ( z ) ing the origin, and there is just one capital value
condition. Otherwise T is a convex pyramid in R n
equals: pointed at the origin.
m −1 τ m−2 τ 3. The investment choice problem

τ

=1 t =1
zt X rt 1+1,τ X rτ 2+1, m − ∑
τ

=1 t =1
zt X rt 1+1,τ +1 X rτ 2+ 2, m −
In this section we propose a new perspective for
m −1 m −1 τ dealing with the problem of investment choice. Re-
− ∑
t =1
zt X rt 1+1, m X rm2 +1, m = ∑
τ
∑=1 t =1
zt X rt 1+1,τ X rτ 2+1, m − call that an investment was represented by a vector,
and if there is a choice between two investments
m −1 τ
represented by x1 and x 2 , then the second is to be
− ∑
τ

=1 t =1
zt X rt 1+1,τ +1 X rτ 2+ 2, m =
preferred, without regard to the income vector y ,
m −1 ⎛ τ ⎞
and without regard to the form of the utility function
= ∑ ∑ ⎜

zt X rt 1+1,τ ⎟( I r 2 − I r 1 ) X rτ 2+ 2, m =
⎟ τ +1 τ +1
U ( c ) = U ( y + x + z ) , if and only if
τ =1 ⎝ t =1 ⎠
m −1
K r ⎛⎜⎝ x 2 ⎞⎟⎠ > K r ⎛⎜⎝ x1 ⎞⎟⎠ ∀r∈M
= ∑
τ =1
K rτ1 ( z )( I r 2 − I r 1 ) X rτ 2+ 2, m .
τ +1 τ +1

holds. All the capital value functions are linear, and


Now, the interest factors X τ + 2, m
> 0 (provided in- y is the same constant vector whatever the choice,
r2
so we can restrict the comparison to the composite
terest rates are not lower than -100 percent, which
would be absurd). Therefore the sign of x + z , i.e., x 2 + z 2 versus x1 + z1 .
K r 2 ( z ) − K r1 ( z ) depends on the signs of the products Now the investment choice problem can be restated
as follows.
K rτ1 ( z ) I r 2 − I
⎛ ⎞
⎜ ⎟

⎜ 1 ⎟⎟
rτ +1 ⎠
alone. However, we noted that in
⎝ τ +1 Theorem 1 (the investment choice problem). In-
order that z ∈ Br1 , we must have rτ1+1 = S whenever vestment x 2 is to be preferred to investment x1 if

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Problems and Perspectives in Management, Volume 6, Issue 1, 2008

and only if for any z1 ∈ T we choose along with x1 , Note that due to the construction of z 2 , the linearity
there exists at least one z 2 ∈ T , such that the sum of the capital value function, and, in particular, that
x 2 + z 2 has at least one element larger than the last coefficient is X rm +1, m = 1 , we have
x1 + z1 , at the same time as no element is smaller. K r (z 2 ) = K r (x1 ) − K r (x 2 ) + K r (z1 ) + δ ∀ r ∈ M .
Proof. We will prove the condition in two steps,
necessity and sufficiency. So, assume that for any But z1 ∈ T , so K r ⎛⎜⎝ z1 ⎞⎟⎠ ≤ 0 and from (2) we have
z1 ∈ T we can choose a z 2 ∈ T , such that x 2 + z 2 that K r ⎛⎜⎝ x1 ⎞⎟⎠ − K r ⎛⎜⎝ x 2 ⎞⎟⎠ + δ ≤ 0 . Therefore
has at least one element larger and no element
smaller than x1 + z1 . As this holds for all z1 ∈ T , it K r ⎛⎜⎝ z 2 ⎞⎟⎠ ≤ 0 ∀r∈M ,
also holds for the vector of zeros, which we know
belongs to T . But then K r ⎛⎜⎝ z1 ⎞⎟⎠ = 0 for any r ∈ M . which means that z 2 ∈ T . This proves sufficiency
and finishes the proof of the theorem.
From the fact that x 2 + z 2 compared to x1 + z1 has at
We have thus proved that
least one larger element and no smaller one, combined
with the fact that the capital value functions are linear K r ⎛⎜⎝ x 2 ⎞⎟⎠ > K r ⎛⎜⎝ x1 ⎞⎟⎠ ∀r∈M
with positive coefficients, we obviously have
is a necessary and sufficient condition for all inves-
K r ⎛⎜⎝ x 2 + z 2 − x1 − z1 ⎞⎟⎠ > 0 tors, without regard to time preferences or incomes,
for all r ∈ M . Due to the linearity and the fact that to choose x 2 rather than x1 . In other words, there is
an objective investment decision for all which can
K r ⎛⎜⎝ z1 ⎞⎟⎠ = 0 one deduces that be separated from the consumption decision, and it
can be stated in terms of some maximum capital
K r ⎛⎜⎝ x 2 ⎞⎟⎠ + K r ⎛⎜⎝ z 2 ⎞⎟⎠ > K r ⎛⎜⎝ x1 ⎞⎟⎠ . value principle.
In this general case we have n = 2m −1 different capi-
But, as z 2 ∈ T then K r ⎛⎜⎝ z 2 ⎞⎟⎠ ≤ 0 and hence it fol-
tal values to calculate, and if they all result in the
lows that same ordering, separability is possible. Hirshleifer
(1958) considered the case of a perfect capital mar-
K r ⎛⎜⎝ x 2 ⎞⎟⎠ > K r ⎛⎜⎝ x1 ⎞⎟⎠ ∀r∈M , ket where the rates of interest for saving and for
loans are equal, and claimed that investment deci-
which finishes the proof of the necessity. sions based on capital values are meaningful only in
Finally we prove sufficiency. To this end assume a perfect capital market. The present discourse
that shows that this may also be possible in an imperfect
capital market where rates of interest differ.
K r ⎛⎜⎝ x 2 ⎞⎟⎠ > K r ⎛⎜⎝ x1 ⎞⎟⎠ ∀ r∈M. (1) Remark 2. We could also easily rephrase the theorem
in the following way: Defining the difference invest-
As (1) is a strong inequality, there exists a suffi-
ciently small δ > 0 , such that ment x = ⎛⎜⎝ x 2 − x1 ⎞⎟⎠ , and due to the linearity of the
capital value functions, all decisions could be reduced
K r ⎛⎜⎝ x 2 ⎞⎟⎠ ≥ K r ⎛⎜⎝ x1 ⎞⎟⎠ + δ ∀r∈M (2) to the following: Investment x is profitable for all,
irrespective of incomes and time preferences iff
still holds.
K r ( x ) > 0,∀ r ∈ M
Then start from any z1 ∈ T , and construct a z 2 ,
such that and it is unprofitable for all if
⎧ xi1 − xi2 + zi1 if i<m K r ( x ) < 0,∀ r ∈ M .

zi = ⎨
2

⎪ x1 − x 2 + z1 + δ As there are a lot of cases where the n = 2m −1 capi-


⎩ m m m if i = m. tal values yield different orderings, the investments
It is obvious that x 2 + z 2 constructed in this way has remain incomparable. The ultimate decision de-
at least one element larger and no element smaller pends on incomes and time preferences. This per-
spective is also applicable when we are not compar-
than x1 + z1 . It only remains to prove that this ing different investments, but want to decide
z 2 ∈ T . To this end K r ⎛⎜⎝ z 2 ⎞⎟⎠ ≤ 0 must be fulfilled. whether or not to make a single investment decision.
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Problems and Perspectives in Management, Volume 6, Issue 1, 2008

Remark 3. It should be noted that we chose to com-


pare final values. This is, however, an arbitrary
choice. We could have chosen any other time point
for comparing capital values, for instance the be-
ginning of the first period, time point 0 . The deriva-
tions and proofs work with any such choice, because
all capital values would just be divided by the same
positive discount factors, which does not change the
ordering. Note also that we can include an initial
cost at the beginning of the first period if we wish, at
time point 0 , as we will do in the following numeri-
cal cases.
4. Examples
Fig. 2. Illustrative case where the non-investment point y
We will give a graphical illustration to the applica- should be chosen by everybody as its possibility area domi-
bility of the investment choice theorem by means of nates that belonging to the investment y + x. The the saving
numerical examples for the two-period case, the rate is assumed to be 75% and the loan rate 100%. (The
simplest one that can be illustrated graphically. rates are exaggerated for increased visibility)
Then we also deal with just the interest rate for one The possibility set for ⎡⎣⎢ c1 , c2 ⎤⎦⎥ when not choosing
single time period. In order to make things visible
we assume an internal rate of return as high as 50 the investment, combined with a suitable transfor-
percent, i.e., by the end of the second period the mation vector ⎡⎣⎢ z1 , z2 ⎤⎦⎥ ∈ T , now dominates com-
investor receives one and a half times the money pletely. The investment should therefore not be cho-
invested in the first. sen by anybody, independently of the time prefer-
ences and the location of the income vector.
To the same end, we also assume the interest rates for
bank transformations to have drastic differences as
well, rS = 0.0 , rL = 0.25 in the case on display in
Figure 1, and rS = 0.75, rL = 1.0 in the case in Figure
2. It will be seen that separability exists in both cases,
and objective choices for both, despite the imperfec-
tion of the capital market. In the first case the invest-
ment decision is optimal for all and in the second for
none, irrespective of incomes and time preferences.
In both figures we find two dots with the same loca-
tions, ⎡⎣⎢ y1 , y2 ⎤⎦⎥ (right dot) representing just incomes,
Fig. 1. Illustrative case where the investment point y + x and ⎡⎣⎢ y1 + x1 , y2 + x2 ⎤⎦⎥ (left dot), representing choos-
should be chosen by everybody as its possibility area domi-
ing the fixed investment option. The possibility sets
nates that belonging to the non-investment point y. The
saving rate is assumed to be 0% and the loan rate 25%. for consumption are
(The rates are exaggerated for increased visibility)
⎢y + z ⎥
⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤
c
⎢ 1⎥
Possibilities for choice, consumption out of just ⎢ ⎥= ⎢ 1 1⎥
c
⎢ ⎥ ⎢ y +z ⎥
⎣ 2⎦ ⎣ 2 2 ⎦
income ⎡⎢⎣ y1 , y2 ⎤⎥⎦ (right dot), or from choosing the
in the first case, and
investment ⎡⎢⎣ y1 + x1 , y2 + x2 ⎤⎥⎦ (left dot)
⎡ ⎤
c
⎢ 1⎥

⎢ 1 y + x1 + z1 ⎤⎥
The possibility set for ⎡⎣⎢ c1 , c2 ⎤⎦⎥ when choosing the ⎢ ⎥ =⎢ ⎥
c
⎢ ⎥
⎣ 2⎦


y2 + x2 + z2 ⎥

investment combined with a suitable transformation
vector ⎡⎢⎣ z1 , z2 ⎤⎥⎦ ∈ T dominates completely. The in the second, where in both cases:
investment should therefore be chosen by all, inde- z= [ ]∈ T = {z ∈ R
z1
z2
2
}
z1 (1 + rs ) + z 2 ≤ 0 ∩
pendently of the time preferences and the location of
the income vector. {
∩ z ∈ R 2 z1 (1 + rL ) + z 2 ≤ 0 . }
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Problems and Perspectives in Management, Volume 6, Issue 1, 2008

As we see, in Figure 1, with low interest rates, over time, which they regarded as the only reason-
rS = 0.0 , rL = 0.25 , the possibility set opened up able rationale for the theory of investment choice.
when choosing the investment dominates com- Their conclusion was rather distressing: only in the
pletely, so the investment and intertemporal con- case of a perfect capital market where the rates of
sumption decisions are separable, and everybody interest for saving and for loans are equal, and were
should choose the investment. This is signified by investment decisions based on capital values mean-
ingful. The present discussion attempts to revive
K rS (x) > 0 and K rL (x) > 0 some argument proposed by Puu (1964, 1967) which
shows that this may also be possible in an imperfect
according to the general theorem above. The reader capital market where the rates of interest differ.
can easily verify this by using rS = 0.0 , rL = 0.25
The issue, raised by Fisher, may seem old, but it has
along with x 2 = −1.5 x1 (i.e., a 50 percent rate of been largely forgotten. In the “Web of Science”
return). database there are but few references to Hirshleifer
As for the case displayed in Figure 2, with high (1958) and none at all to Puu (1964, 1967).
interest rates, rS = 0.75, rL = 1.0 , the possibility set In his entry in the New Palgrave, Hirshleifer (1987)
opened when the investment is not chosen domi- repeats his former argument. The remaining impres-
nates in the same way, and nobody should choose sion from reading this is that the argument had no
the investment. In this case impact at all on later literature. Investors need to
choose criteria, and it is uncomfortable to do with-
K rS (x) < 0 and K rL (x) < 0
out a cherished method, even if it has been shown to
work only in the unrealistic case of perfect capital
Again it can be verified using rS = 0.75, rL = 1.0
markets (See Schall, Sundem, Geijsbeek (1974) for
along with x 2 = −1.5 x1 . an accurate survey of investment calculation meth-
ods actually used in 424 large US firms).
So, we see how Hisrshleifer’s (1958) results are
extended to an imperfect capital market. However, The argument presented here extends the
assuming for instance rS = 0.4, rL = 0.6 , we find Fisher/Hirshleifer analysis to imperfect capital mar-
that the possibility areas intersect, so the decisions kets where borrowing and lending rates differ, and
are not separable, and the potential investor’s time proposes modified criteria still in terms of capital
preferences and other incomes do matter. values. These modified criteria guarantee separabil-
ity in imperfect markets.
The general point is that the Fisher-Hirshleifer ar-
gument is the only way of putting traditional capital Of course, these considerations apply only to cases
value calculations on a firm theoretic basis. It has where all future cash flows associated with invest-
been shown, as in (Puu, 1964) and (Puu, 1967), that ments, and all future interest rates, are foreseen with
an extension of the argument is possible for imper- certainty. Considering uncertainty, only brings in
fect capital markets, though the criteria may be re- new problematic issues, such as replacing expected
strictive, so the extension does not always work. probability distributions with certainty equivalents,
which cannot be considered as possible choices for
Conclusion
individual time periods, the uncertain investment
Fisher (1907, 1930) and Hirshleifer (1958) consid- project being a unique combined option. There is no
ered separability of the decisions to invest from the need to enter these further (though essential) prob-
decisions to distribute consumption expenditures lems in this context.

References
1. Boulding KE (1934). The theory of a single investment, The Quarterly Journal of Economics 49: 475.
2. Fisher I. (1930). The Theory of Investment, As Determined by Impatience to Spend Income and Opportunity to
Invest It. New York.
3. Hicks, J.R. (1946). Value and Capital. Oxford.
4. Hirshleifer J. (1958). On the theory of optimal investment decision, The Journal of Political Economy 66: 329.
5. Hirshleifer J. (1987). Investment decision criteria, in Eatwell J, Milgate M, Newman P. The New Palgrave: A
Dictionary of Economics. London.
6. Keynes J.M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. MacMillan, London.
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ics 60: 56.
8. Lutz F.A. (Lutz V), 1951. The Theory of Investment of the Firm. Princeton.
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Problems and Perspectives in Management, Volume 6, Issue 1, 2008

10. Puu T. (1967). Some reflections on the theories of choice between alternative investment opportunities, Welt-
wirtschaftliches Archiv 99: 107.
11. Schall L.D., Sundem G.L., Geijsbeek W.R., (1974). Survey and analyses of capital budgeting methods, The Jour-
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Theorie der Investition. Tübingen.

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