ARTICLE IN PRESS

Global Environmental Change 18 (2008) 564–574

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Global Environmental Change

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/gloenvcha

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and water stress in

Uttarakhand State, India
Ulka Kelkar a,, Kapil Kumar Narula b,1, Ved Prakash Sharma b,1, Usha Chandna b,1
a
TERI (The Energy and Resources Institute), 4th Main, 2nd Cross, Domlur 2nd Stage, Bangalore 560071, India
b
TERI (The Energy and Resources Institute), Darbari Seth Block, India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110003, India

a r t i c l e in f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: This paper presents a participatory approach to investigate vulnerability and adaptive capacity to
Received 29 May 2007 climate variability and water stress in the Lakhwar watershed in Uttarakhand State, India. Highly water
Received in revised form stressed microwatersheds were identified by modelling surface runoff, soil moisture development,
1 September 2008
lateral runoff, and groundwater recharge. The modelling results were shared with communities in two
Accepted 3 September 2008
villages, and timeline exercises were carried out to allow them to trace past developments that have
impacted their lives and livelihoods, and stimulate discussion about future changes and possible
Keywords: adaptation interventions.
Climate change & 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Water stress
Agriculture

1. Introduction drawals in the country, using both surface and groundwater

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) points out that freshwater
availability in Asia is projected to decrease due to climate
change. By the middle of the 21st century, annual average river
runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10–30%
relative to 1900–70 over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in
the dry tropics. Further, reduced water availability is projected for
regions supplied by melt water from glaciers and snow (IPCC,
2007).
India receives an average annual precipitation of about 4000
billion cubic metres (BCM). Of this, utilizable surface water and
groundwater resources are estimated to be only 690 and 432 BCM,
respectively (CWC, 2005). As a result of wide fluctuations in the
availability of water, spatially and temporally, water shortage is
virtually an annual feature in several parts of the country.
Moreover, acceleration in the rate of consumption due to an
increasing population and changing lifestyles is a cause for
concern for effective sustainable management and utilization of
this resource. Per capita annual water availability in India has
steadily declined from 1820 m3 in 2001 to 1703.6 m3 in 2005,
coming close to the water stress threshold of 1700 m3 (CWC,
2005). Agriculture accounts for more than 80% of water with-
 Corresponding author. Tel.: +9180 2535 6590; fax: +9180 2535 6589.
E-mail address: ulkak@teri.res.in (U. Kelkar).
1
Tel.: +9111 2468 2100; fax: +9111 2468 2144.
resources. Water demand for irrigation is projected to rise from
541 BCM in 2000 to 910 BCM in 2025, and to 1072 BCM in 2050
(CWC, 2005).
Specifically for the Lakhwar sub-basin, part of the Upper
Yamuna sub-basin in Uttarakhand state, Narula and Bhadwal
(2003) found that about 1500 km2 of the 4000 km2 sub-basin
receives an annual runoff of less than 1250 mm, and as a result is
highly sensitive to increased water stress due to climate change.
The study projected a decrease of 20–30% in total flows due to
climate change alone by 2041–60 relative to 1961–90, with
monsoon rainfall likely to become less intense and more sporadic.
The potential impacts of such changes could include the
following.
 Reduced groundwater availability—Under the changed climate
scenario, since the total water availability will go down by
about 30% relative to the reference period of 1961–90, the
groundwater recharge will also be reduced, translating into a
fall in groundwater tables. This will also lead to an increase in
the extraction costs because higher capacity equipment has to
be installed to maintain yields.
 Reduced surface water availability—Decrease in total runoff
levels would reduce the availability of drinking water for
humans and livestock. This would specifically have seasonal
patterns worth studying. In conjunction with reduced ground-
water availability, this could lead to increased conflicts over
water, and would certainly increase the burden of water
collection on women.

0959-3780/$ - see front matter & 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.09.003
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
U. Kelkar et al. / Global Environmental Change 18 (2008) 564–574
 Declining crop yields—Since the changes in the rainfall pattern
will have a direct impact on the groundwater recharge
volumes, intensity of irrigation in the region will be affected.
Crops like sugarcane, rice, and wheat that are water-intensive
and are grown extensively in the region will be most severely
affected. Restrictions in growth of sugarcane and rice can occur
due to changes in mean temperatures and rainfall patterns
(Venkataraman and Krishnan, 1992). The start of the monsoon
season is an important factor in rice production. In some cases,
the sowing and harvesting time of these crops may also have to
be shifted as temperatures and humidity levels vary, and any
change in these conditions may affect the growth of these
crops and reduce yields.
 Reduced water quality—Areas located in the north and north-
east parts of the sub-basin are more vulnerable to climate
change impacts since total water availability is already
less compared to other regions of the sub-basin. Such areas
are also susceptible to pollution as economic activities grow
and water flows decline, which would have significant health
impacts.
In light of the predicted impacts of climate change outlined
above, this study aims to assess the vulnerability and adaptive
capacity of households engaged in agriculture in Lakhwar sub-
basin to climate variability and water stress. Recognizing that
vulnerability needs to be understood at the local level, and that
households engaged in agriculture employ a variety of measures
in response to changing stresses and incentives, the study
complements watershed modelling with a participatory approach
to gain insights through mutual learning and exchange with the
affected communities. It attempts to address the following
specific research questions:
1. What is the capacity of households in the study region to cope
with current climatic variability and water stress?
2. Are their responses only temporary coping measures, or would
these responses help households adapt in the long run?
3. What are the possible scenarios of interventions (at different
levels—policy, institutional, technological, community, indivi-
dual) that can help build adaptive capacity?
2. Case study area
The Yamuna river flows through the Punjab-Kumaon Hima-
layas from Shimla in the north-west to Mussoorie in the south-
east. It rises from the Yamunotri springs in the Himalayas. After
flowing in the south-westerly direction for about 120 km, the
Yamuna is joined by its principal tributary, the Tons, near
Dakpathar. The Lakhwar sub-basin constitutes the Himayalan
reach of the Upper Yamuna basin and stretches to Dehradun
district in Uttarakhand State. This sub-basin constitutes about
4000 km2, out of the total catchment area of 12,000 km2 (Fig. 1). In
the upper reach, the Yamuna has a steep bed slope of 1/16 in the
first 30 km and flattens out with a bed slope of 1/500 at Tajewala.
Since in the upper catchment, the river courses are well defined
and confined between high banks, they present no flood problem.
Rainfall spells in the Yamuna basin are generally associated
with monsoon or late-monsoon depressions either from the Bay of
Bengal or the Arabian Sea. Normally, monsoon sets in over the
upper catchment by about the end of the third week of June and
withdraws by about the middle or third week of September. Late-
monsoon depressions may form till the end of September or even
up to the middle of October. The Yamuna catchment receives
around 120 cm of rainfall throughout the year, of which 75% is
received during the monsoon months (CWC, 1998).
565
Dehradun is the state capital of the north Indian state of
Uttarakhand (earlier called Uttaranchal). Located at an altitude of
640 m above sea level, the district is spread over 3088 km2,
nestled among mountain ranges. About 51% of the district is
covered by forests (FSI, 2008) with the mountain slopes
dominated by sal (Shorea robusta). Agriculture2 is practiced in
the valley, along with agroforestry, orchard cultivation, and tea
gardening.
Dehradun district has two sub-divisions—Dehradun and
Chakrata. The lower part of Chakrata is called Jaunsar and the
upper part (at higher elevation) is called Bawar. This is difficult
terrain, poorly connected by transportation facilities, and gen-
erally neglected when Uttarakhand was part of the large Uttar
Pradesh state. The inhabitants of Jaunsar claim descent from the
Pandavas of the Mahabharata, and traditionally practiced
polyandry.3
Cultivation takes place mainly in narrow patches of terraced
fields cut into the hill slopes. About half of all landholdings are
less than 0.5 ha in size, and 70% are less than a hectare. Tenant
farming and sharecropping are not common. As pointed out by
Sati (2005), geography and culture (i.e. the way of life in the hills)
have created a relatively equitable, if impoverished, land distribu-
tion in Uttarakhand.
The total water requirement for Uttarakhand state (including
human consumption, animal consumption, agriculture, and
industry) is estimated as only 3% of the annual precipitation
received. However, rainfall is available for only 100 days, and
flows out swiftly from the steep slopes constituting the major part
of the state. The cultivable command area (excluding forestland,
populated land, and non-irrigable land) of the state is 1.14 million
ha, of which 0.55 million ha remains unirrigated and lies primarily
in the hilly areas of the state. In the hill districts, the irrigated area
is merely 14%, compared with 46% in the foothills and plains
(Government of Uttaranchal, 2004). The State’s draft water policy
(Government of Uttaranchal, 2004, p. 1) notes that ‘‘It is a paradox
that the local people of the state and their lands are facing
shortage of water for domestic consumptive uses in the remaining
period of the year.’’
Uttarakhand (and its neighbouring state Himachal Pradesh)
have had a tradition of water harvesting (Table 1). Water for
household use was obtained from springs, mountain streams, or
man-made rainwater harvesting structures. Open ponds and tanks
provided water for animals, irrigation, and washing. For human
consumption, water was tapped from underground seepages (in
baoris/naulas) or springs (dharas). Terraced fields were irrigated
by diverting water (using boulders and branches) from nearby
mountain streams through small gravity flow channels known as
guhls. Typically a farmer floods his field and then removes a stone
plug at the outside edge of the field so that water can flow to the
next terrace below. Some channels also provide hydropower for
gharats (water mills). All these structures were usually common
property resources, which were largely owned, used, and main-
tained by local communities. However, an increasing number of
guhls have been taken over by state government agencies, and
fallen into disrepair due to lack of a sense of ownership (PSI,
2003). At the national level, there has been a significant shift in
thinking with water being increasingly viewed as a commodity,
rather than a natural resource. This is reflected in the National
2
North India has two agricultural seasons. Rabi is the winter season and the
rabi crop is harvested in April. Kharif coincides with the monsoon or the rainy
season. Wheat is an important rabi crop while paddy is an important kharif crop.
3
Polyandry is the practice of having more than one husband at one time.
Majumdar (1962) termed the practice, observed in this region, of fraternal
polyandry with multiple wives as ‘‘polygynandry’’.
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566 U. Kelkar et al. / Global Environmental Change 18 (2008) 564–574

SHIMLA
# UTTARKASHI
Simla #

2 Yamunotri
1
3
Solan # SOLAN
# #
Chakrata 4
YashwantNagar ##
# # Damta
SIRMAUR 5 6
DEHRADUN
##
Dadahu Koti
# #
8
# 7
##
9
# TEHRI GARHWAL

Lakhwar #
Mussoorie
Outlets
# Linking stream added Outlet YAMUNANAGAR
Streams Tajewala
# # Dehradun
Subbasins 0 20 40 Kilometres
Digitized streams

Fig. 1. Location of Lakhwar watershed within Upper Yamuna basin.

Water Policy (2002), which formalizes the concept of the rights of
water users, and allows trading in entitlements.
The mid-Himalayan ranges are dry, with small streams fed by
winter snow. Agriculture in Jaunsar-Bawar is characterized by
natural irrigation i.e. no lift irrigation, tubewells/borewells, but
only guhls. Sati (2005) cites a 1996 study which found that in
about half of Uttarakhand’s villages, springs had either ceased to
yield water, or did so only during the rainy season, calling this the
‘‘too little—too much syndrome’’. There has been a decrease in
spring discharge ranging from 25% to 75%, and this has resulted in
a considerable decrease in water flow; estimated to be around
30–40% in the last decade or two.
Against this background, the draft water policy for the state
notes that production of food grains has increased from around
0.5 million tonnes in the 1950s to about 1.79 million tonnes in
1999/2000, but stipulates that this will have to be raised to
around 2.5 million tonnes by the year 2025.
3. Framework
This study adopts a place-specific approach to understand
vulnerability and adaptive capacity through mutual learning and
exchange with the affected communities. While choosing a
specific watershed as the case study area, the stresses acting on
the exposure unit were studied as part of a larger context, with
external forces acting as both constraints to, and opportunities for,
coping responses.
The working definition of vulnerability adopted for this study
is that defined by Turner et al. (2003, p. 8074) as ‘‘the degree to
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U. Kelkar et al. / Global Environmental Change 18 (2008) 564–574
Table 1
Traditional water harvesting structures in central western Himalayas
Structure Use
Chaal/khal/ Animal consumption
chuptyaula
Naula/baori Domestic water use
Dhara Drinking water, occasionally irrigation from
large dharas
Guhl Irrigation and operating gharats (watermills)
Hauzi Irrigation
Gharat Milling
Chappri/talaai/ Water for livestock and irrigation
talaab
Baori/khatri Domestic water use
Naun Bathing and washing clothes
Chharedu/panihar/ Bathing and drinking water
nahun
Kuhl Irrigation and operating gharats
Gharat Milling
Source: PSI (2003).
which a system, subsystem, or system component is likely to
experience harm due to exposure to a hazard, either a perturba-
tion or stress’’. Various factors shape the differences in vulner-
ability of individuals or groups: entitlements, personal
heterogeneity, variations in social obligations, environmental
location, livelihood diversification strategies, support networks,
empowerment or power relations, access to knowledge, informa-
tion, and technology (Noronha, 2003). A combination of factors
may increase vulnerability or enhance resilience to stresses
(i.e. the capacity to cope or respond to stress in different ways).
Within the context of climate studies, the most vulnerable are
considered to be those who are most exposed to perturbations,
who possess a limited capacity for adaptation, and who are least
resilient to recovery (Bohle et al., 1994).
4. Methods
Schröter et al. (2005) propose a set of five criteria for global
change vulnerability assessments to inform adaptation decision
making by stakeholders: they should have a knowledge base from
various disciplines and stakeholder participation, be place based,
consider multiple interacting stresses, examine differential adap-
tive capacity, and be prospective as well as historical. On the basis
of these criteria, they suggest eight methodological steps. Fig. 2
outlines the various steps taken and methods used in this study
correspond to the Schröter et al. (2005) framework.
The study combined watershed modelling with a participatory
approach to investigate vulnerability and adaptive capacity to
climate variability and water stress in the Lakhwar watershed.
Water balance modelling for Lakhwar watershed was carried out
using SWAT (Neitsch et al., 2002) and MODFLOW (McDonald and
Harbaugh, 1988) models. Areas that would be most affected due to
changes in flows and water stresses were identified, and two
villages were selected for community-level interactions. This
paper does not go into the details of the watershed modelling
component, which is summarized below, but focuses more on the
participatory assessment.
4.1. Water balance modelling for Lakhwar watershed
Two widely used models viz. SWAT and MODFLOW were used
to evaluate water resources for the Lakhwar watershed. While
567
SWAT models the land and water phase of the hydrological cycle
that includes surface runoff, soil moisture development and
lateral runoff, and groundwater recharge or baseflows, MODFLOW
State
models the groundwater movement.
Uttarakhand The input database for the model analysis was built from
climatic, pedological, geological, topographical, hydrological, and
Uttarakhand demographic data listed in Table 2. The modelling, analysis and
Uttarakhand
cartographic representation were carried out in the Arc/Info
Uttarakhand and ARCVIEW geographic information system (GIS). The model
Uttarakhand results were validated by comparing the calculated runoff values
Uttarakhand with actual flows for the sub-basins measured at runoff gauges
Himachal
maintained by the Central Water Commission, Ministry of Water
Pradesh
Himachal Resources, Government of India.
Pradesh The hydrological model results for the Lakhwar watershed
Himachal show that the average daily surface runoff (water yield) is very
Pradesh high. The peak flows are in the range of 600 to 41000 cubic
Himachal
Pradesh
metres per second (cumecs). The average daily flows are in the
Himachal range of 80–120 cumecs. Surface runoff was found to be the most
Pradesh important component of the overall water balance for this
Himachal watershed (Table 3). This implies that useful interventions for
Pradesh
this watershed could include:
 capturing surface runoff through catchment level rainwater
harvesting and local check dams,
 enhancing gravity schemes for water supply to villages, and
 desilting and management of local ponds at the village level.
4.2. Site selection
Based on the water balance modelling, the five microwater-
sheds in the Lakhwar watershed were ranked in terms of relative
water stress. The southernmost part of the watershed was
identified as the most water stressed with total annual water
availability estimated to be 995 mm, followed by the microwa-
tershed immediately to its north where total annual water
availability was estimated to be 1030 mm.
The modelling results were shared with a local NGO partner,
the Society for Motivational Training and Action (SMTA), to
ground-truth the analysis and to identify one village each in the
two most water stressed areas. We wanted to select villages that
were typical in terms of the economic importance of agriculture
and the type of cultivation practiced in the region. While
population density in the hills is often low, we attempted to
select villages with at least 30–40 households to get a reasonable
sample size. Lakhwar village, identified in the most water stressed
microwatershed, is characterized by purely rainfed farming, and
Chhotau village in the second most water stressed microwa-
tershed has a mix of irrigated and rainfed farming.
4.3. Participatory methods
Participatory learning and action research has evolved as an
approach that utilizes the knowledge of poor, rural, natural
resource users-recognizing them as ‘‘crucial agents of change and
development, and not merely targets of technological advice’’
(Tyler, 2006, p. 20). This ‘‘lay knowledge’’ as opposed to ‘‘expert
knowledge’’ (Kasemir et al., 2003) is being increasingly considered
relevant to environmental decision making. The two publications
cited above demonstrate with respect to community-based
natural resource management and global climate change respec-
tively, that understanding the complexity of social and ecological
systems and knowing current perceptions of problems and values
is essential to effect sustained changes. Further, this approach
attempts to conduct field-based social science research in a less
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568 U. Kelkar et al. / Global Environmental Change 18 (2008) 564–574

Step in Schroter et al (2005) Methods used in study

methodological framework

1. Define study area with Interviews with district officials and NGOs working in the
stakeholders region; collection and analysis of secondary data and
literature

Time spent in field with community members and NGO

2. Get to know place over time
workers; oral history of village elders

Water balance modelling carried out to identify highly

water-stressed areas
Vulnerability profiling of households to understand
3. Hypothesize who is
patterns of livelihood strategies, socioeconomic and
vulnerable to what
environmental stresses, and risk perceptions
Focus on smallholder farmers and water stress in context
of economic pressures
4. Develop a causal model of
vulnerability
Semi-structured interviews to elicit information on impacts,
coping capacity, and factors affecting vulnerability; time
5. Find indicators for the
budgeting exercises with women
elements of vulnerability
Analysis of questionnaire data combined with results from
6. Operationalise model of water balance modelling to assess water stress and
vulnerability vulnerability of the community
7. Project future vulnerability Timeline exercises with vulnerable community to discuss
past developments and identify future scenarios of water
8. Communicate vulnerability stress; sharing of modelling results and brainstorming on
creatively adaptation options

Fig. 2. Outline of study methodology.

Table 2 model outputs were shared with citizen focus groups. Evans et al.
Input data sets of the water-balance models for the river basin (2006) also describe how natural resource dependent commu-
nities can discuss today’s concerns as a starting point for arriving
Subject area Data basis Source
at a vision for the future. ‘‘The way that the public understands
Basic data Boundaries of the river basin, Survey of India (SoI), and defines the issues then becomes a complementary input to
administrative boundaries, Central Pollution the scientific assessment and ultimately the policy making
flowing waters Control Board process’’ (Kasemir et al., 2003, p. 7).
Climatic data Daily precipitation, daily Indian Meteorological Group discussions were held in each village during May–July
temperatures (mean, minimum Department 2005 to elicit community perceptions about climatic changes and
and maximum), mean annual learn about factors impacting agricultural livelihoods over time.
precipitation in the hydrological
winter months, mean annual
Stratified random sampling was undertaken (details in Section
precipitation in the hydrological 5.1) and semi-structured interviews were conducted with differ-
summer months, mean annual ent types of households to elicit information on their agricultural
potential evaporation practices and non-agricultural responses in the face of water
Soil-physical data Soil characteristics (% silt, National Bureau of
scarcity. Key person interviews were carried out with village
sand and clay), effective root Soil Survey and Land
penetration depth, useful Use Planning elders and leaders. Time budgeting exercises were carried out
field capacity, capillary elevation, with women. The community in each of the two villages was
influence on groundwater brought together for group discussions and timeline exercises,
or perched aquifer separately with men and women. Water availability maps
Land use data Ground cover SoI, Satellite developed in the watershed modelling exercise were shared with
imageries, State the community to stimulate brainstorming on a possible pool of
Agricultural Board options that would enhance the adaptive capacity of vulnerable
Hydrogeological data Groundwater-bearing Geological Survey of
households in the long run. A timeline was developed by the
lithologic units India (GSI)
Topographical data Mean slope; mean slope SoI community of key developments in the village, including the
exposure changing water stress situation, extending into future scenarios
Gauge data Mean flows and mean Central Water for water stress and possible interventions.
minimum flows (monthly, annual Commission, Ministry
for 30 years) of Water Resources,
Government of India
5. A tale of two villages: preliminary observations
from case studies
extractive manner, i.e. instead of taking information from
respondents, researchers should facilitate the identification, Amartya Sen’s entitlements and capabilities approach gives
understanding, and addressing of issues by the local community. emphasis to differential access, or ‘‘entitlement’’ to resources, as a
The authors drew inspiration from the methods described in determinant of household/individual vulnerability (Sen, 1981,
Kasemir et al. (2003) where climate change integrated assessment 1999). To explore factors influencing vulnerability of agricultural
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
U. Kelkar et al. / Global Environmental Change 18 (2008) 564–574
Table 3
Water balance of Lakhwar watershed
Period of simulation 5 years As % of precipitation
Average precipitation (mm) 1848
Actual evapotranspiration loss (mm) 663 36%
Recharge (mm) 144 8%
Surface runoff (mm) 1041 56%
Source: TERI analysis (2005).
households over time, and coping measures employed by different
types of households, case studies were carried out in Lakhwar and
Chhotau villages. This section reports insights gained through
group discussions and individual interviews in the two villages.
5.1. Lakhwar and Chhotau: socio-economic profiles
Lakhwar is part of a dense cluster of villages comprising
Lakhwar, Dhanpau, Bisnau, Mistau, Jakhnau, and Sawda, about
60 km from Dehradun. The total cultivated and uncultivated area
of Lakhwar village specifically is 72 ha. The patwari (local revenue
official) had a record of 47 households (5 with medium land-
holdings, 15 with small landholdings, and 27 with marginal
landholdings), of which we surveyed 30 (5 with medium land
holdings, 9 with small land holdings, and 16 with marginal land
holdings). Many of the farmers lost irrigated fields during the
construction of the Lakhwar dam,4 and received compensation
from the government.
Chhotau village is about 100 km from Dehradun and 10 km
from Chakrata town, and is at a height of about 1500 m above
mean sea level. The total number of households is 38, of which we
interviewed 32. Chhotau can be accessed only by a 1.5 km steep
downhill walk. It lacks basic amenities such as electricity,
drinking water, toilets, health centre, road connectivity, tele-
phones, and education beyond the primary school level. Houses
are made of mud, stone, and wood, and indoor air quality is poor
due to the use of traditional cookstoves. Only one house in the
village has a toilet. The nearest primary health care centre is in
Chakrata and the nearest hospital is in Dehradun. After the fifth
grade, students have to walk 6–7 km to the school in Puroli or
Nagau. There is no collective or cooperative society5 in the village,
which could help reduce vulnerability, for instance by enabling
farmers to effectively market their produce or women to engage in
off-farm income earning activities.
Perhaps the defining trend for this region is the massive
migration to cities. The entire Jaunsar-Bawar area was designated
as a tribal area in 1968, making its inhabitants eligible for the
Government’s promotional schemes for tribals. However, Jaunsari
society is caste stratified, with Brahmin and Rajput families
holding most of the land (Fig. 3). It is the upper caste Brahmin and
Rajput ‘‘tribals’’ who have gained the most from these policies,
while the lower caste Harijans have been unable to get either
education or employment benefits and continue to live in
marginalized and even ghettoized conditions.
As mentioned before, these communities have traditionally
had a polyandrous patriarchal system, but the practice has
4
Work on Lakhwar dam on the Yamuna river started in 1976, but was halted
due to the high cost of production.
5
A cooperative society is a collectively owned enterprise, for instance farmers
organizing themselves to market their produce collectively. Agricultural credit
cooperatives have existed in India for more than a hundred years. Successful
examples in sugar production in Maharashtra state and dairy marketing in Gujarat
state have shown how cooperatives can be vehicles of self-empowerment and rural
development.
569
declined over time. The general trend towards break-up of the
joint family system is observed here also, and has impacted upon
landholdings, particularly the irrigated patches of fields. The
average household size was found to be 7.5 in Lakhwar and 8.3 in
Chhotau.
Basu (1993) estimated that Jaunsar-Bawar has a literacy rate of
46% for men and 15% for women. While many households
interviewed in Lakhwar and Chhotau had members who had
bachelor’s or even master’s degrees, these were all from upper
caste families. No Harijan had a college education; only 1 person
of this caste in each village had actually completed high school,
while the majority dropped out at the primary and middle school
levels.
5.2. Climate variability and water stress: community perceptions
Almost all the households interviewed in the two villages felt
that rainfall has declined in quantity and that they could no longer
rely on the timely onset of the monsoon (Table 4).
Respondents noted a decrease in scattered light rainfall useful
for percolation, and an increase in intense rainfall which destroys
crops and runs off. Some of the indicators mentioned by Lakhwar
community members were:
 Earlier one could not see the stars throughout the month of
shravana (July/August).
 A few days ago temperature reached 38 1C which was
unthinkable earlier. Fans were never needed till 2–3 years ago.
 Mosquitoes have become a problem in the last 10 years,
although this is not just because of temperature rise but also
due to poor drainage and sanitation.
 It used to rain a lot when I came to the village as a young bride.
These days the sunshine has more heat.
 Around 1984, rainfall would come in the second week of May,
but now it tends to be delayed by a month.
 Maize should have been planted by the beginning of June but
the rains have been coming late every year.
 We remember lush yields when we would get tired harvesting
the crop. Now it does not rain on time—what will grow in the
fields?
 Groundwater has been declining. There is acute lack of water in
streams in the lean season.
In Chhotau the more obvious indicator was the decline in
snowfall:
 When we were children the December snow would stay on the
roofs till March, forming layers of frost and ice.
 During the annual fair in April in Chakrata Bazaar, the army
would have to push the snow to the sides of the road. Now you
don’t find snow even on Deoban (at a higher elevation).
 For many years there has been no snowfall in December. There
is late snow in January–February when temperatures are
already rising—it melts away and does not feed into the
streams.
 As children, as soon as we saw rain, we would bring down the
livestock from the hilly slopes, to save them from being
drowned. Now the streams are all dry.
 35–40 years ago it used to snow for stretches of 2–4 days when
livestock were kept in the house and men would stay indoors
and play cards. The snow was like manure—knee deep snow
that covered the ground and retained soil moisture under-
neath.
 It should rain in vaisakha–jyaishtha (i.e. April/May) but the
rains are delayed by 2 months. This year the gagli and ginger
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Vaishya, 0.8 Harijan, 8.8
Harijan, 5.3
Rajput, 68.7
Average landholding size 2.5 ha
Fig. 3. Distribution of landholdings (ha) by caste in (a) Lakhwar and (b) Chhotau villages.
Table 4
Community perceptions about rainfall variability
% of respondents Lakhwar Chhotau
Rainfall has declined over the last 10–15 years (%) 90 87.5
Onset of rainfall has become late (%) 65 25
Onset of rainfall has become erratic (%) 32 69
crop have all dried up because of poor monsoon rain, otherwise
they would have been waist high by the beginning of July.
There was concern that rainfall is lost to surface runoff, streams
and springs are drying up, and soil moisture has declined.
Many people linked these climatic changes to deforestation
and forest fires. A farmer remembered collecting wood from thick
forests as a young boy in the 1960s. Now there are eucalyptus
plantations that soak up water excessively. Deforestation in
Uttarakhand has its roots in the expansion of the British empire
in India—the growing demand for sleepers by the railways, timber
and fuel for new emerging cantonments and hill stations—and
reached a peak during the Second World War (Dangwal, 2005).
The traditional forests in the hills were replaced by commercial
monoculture plantations of pine trees for railway sleepers and
turpentine, which had a negative impact on the soil texture
(Furtado, pers comm). However, at present the tendency is to cut
trees indiscriminately for timber and firewood, and to start forest
fires to encourage regrowth for cattle fodder. There are no joint
forest management programmes or awareness initiatives in this
region. Without collective ownership, there is no incentive to
protect common lands.
5.3. Changes in cropping patterns and agricultural practices
The traditional cropping pattern in the region was called
‘‘barahnaj’’, literally ‘‘twelve seeds’’6 that were grown together to
optimize productivity and soil fertility, ensure food security, meet
diverse household needs, and minimize expenses on agricultural
inputs like seeds and manure (Sati, 2005). However, farmers have
responded to migratory stresses and price incentives by changing
the cropping pattern towards maize and cash crops that require
less effort and yield higher returns. But they continue to depend
heavily on rainfall, and hence the challenges they face are two-
6 7
Mandua (finger millets), ramdana/chua (amaranthus), rajma (common
kidney beans), ogal (buckwheat), urad (green gram), moong (black gram), naurangi
(mix of pulses), gahath (horsegram), bhat (soybean), lobiya (French beans), kheera
(cucumber), bhang (cannabis) and other crops.
Hindu, 1.0
Joshi, 19.6
Average landholding size 0.8 ha
fold. On the one hand there are climatic and ecological stresses,
while on the other, newly emerging economic and societal
structures—and these two kinds of stresses must be studied in
conjunction to get the true picture of vulnerability (O’Brien and
Leichenko, 2004).
1. Economic pressures: The fragmentation of land holdings in the
hills prevents economies of scale and creates challenges for
irrigation and pest management. With poor road connectivity
and frequent landslides during the rains, the lack of transpor-
tation, storage, and marketing facilities is obviously a prohi-
bitive barrier. Farmers do not consider it worthwhile to
transport their small quantities of produce to distant markets
where the price may be higher. As more and more land is
brought under vegetable cultivation, oversupply combined
with the absence of cold storage facilities and the high price of
seeds means that farmers become price takers. A Lakhwar
village elder remembered that in the 1960s, Lakhwar had a
self-sufficient agriculture-based economy, with only one
person in the village working in the service sector. But now
aspirations for city living standards and the lack of other
economic opportunities in the villages have meant that the
younger generation no longer considers agriculture as a viable
livelihood.
2. Climatic and ecological stresses: Although Chhotau has some
irrigated fields,7 the river dries up in the summer. Crops like
potatoes, peas, gagli, and ginger have all been damaged in the
last 5–10 years due to late rains. The availability of fodder goes
down in the summer, livestock ownership is also reduced, and
with it milk production and manure availability declines. It is
no longer possible to cultivate millets like mundhwa and todiya,
and pulses like urad that grew on residual soil moisture after
the maize crop had been harvested.8 The winter rains are also
delayed, and the wheat crop has been very poor for the last
10–15 years. About 15–20% of the agricultural land is left
barren.
5.4. Women’s role in agriculture
Women bear the major burden of performing agricultural
operations and gathering supplies for household needs. Time
accounting exercises showed that they spend 14 h a day working
in the fields, and gathering fodder and firewood, preparing
manure, collecting drinking water, ropemaking, haymaking, etc.
About 10–15% of the cultivated land is river irrigated, while fields on higher
slopes are rainfed.
8
Chopra and Pasi (2002) have highlighted the impact of this trend on protein
intake and food security.
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U. Kelkar et al. / Global Environmental Change 18 (2008) 564–574
Agrawal (2002) points out that men tend to perform agricultural
operations where they have a dominant role involving animals or
tools, whereas women’s jobs depend on manual labour, and hence
have a lower status. Often women are the only family members
remaining in the village to tend to the fields while the men look
for city jobs. The result is an acute shortage of manpower, and
rising cost of agricultural labour. Several girls are enrolled in city
schools and colleges but go to the city only to appear for
examinations, while working on the fields the rest of the year.
But there is also some awareness of the successful examples of
nearby villages: in Dhanpau village, women made and sold
organic manure, while in Luhan village, farmers formed a
cooperative society and were able to command good prices for
chillies and gagli.
5.5. Coping measures
Households engaged in agriculture can employ a range of
strategies in responding to water scarcity (Narain, 2003):
 by improving their access to available water (e.g. makeshift
storages, digging deeper tubewells, exchanging irrigation
timeshares, buying groundwater, and engaging in water theft),
 by reducing their demand for water (e.g. switching to less
water consumptive crops, adopting more efficient irrigation
practices, and altering dates for agricultural operations),
 by coping with the adverse impacts of periodic drought
(e.g. credit, sale of valuables and livestock, use of stored seeds
and foodgrains) and
 by diversifying their sources of livelihood (e.g. alternative
employment opportunities, migration).
Fig. 4 shows coping options employed in Lakhwar village. Many
households report that in poor rainfall years they shift to less
water-intensive crops or look for other sources of employment.
Other options include obtaining loans or selling assets during
low income periods. However, closer analysis reveals that it is
the higher-caste Rajput families who report that they take
loans, in addition to ‘‘other’’ options such as ‘‘son sends cash’’,
‘‘help from brother’’, or ‘‘buying food from market’’. The lower
caste farmers have no option but to find other labour related
jobs. The average annual income reported by Harijan house-
holds was about USD 428, while that by Rajput households
was about USD 1621 with agricultural income supplemented
by income from service, pension, and money sent by family
members.
In Chhotau the picture is more ‘‘equitable, if impoverished’’
with Joshi (Brahmin) families reporting an average annual income
of USD 408 and Harijan families reporting USD 380. When
the river starts drying up in the summer, farmers take turns to
Plant less
water-
Take loans,
10 intensive
crops, 10
Leave village,
0 Irrigate fields, 2
Sell land, 1
Find other Sell
Sell livestock,
jobs, 17 valuables, 0
1
Fig. 4. Coping measures reported by farming households in Lakhwar village.
571
flood their fields and stay up all night till the fields slowly
fill up. People keep fewer livestock, and the quantity of milk is
reduced.
Traditional money lenders charge interest of 5 Rupees per
month per 100 Rupees, i.e. 60% per annum. Commercial banks
charge 10–12 or 18% but there is cumbersome paperwork involved
and distrust due to poor understanding of terms and conditions.
Reciprocal exchange of cash, produce, and most importantly,
labour is a common coping strategy in the hills, particularly in the
face of manpower shortages (Agrawal, 2002).
5.6. Scenarios and interventions
In group discussions carried out separately with men and
women in the two villages, the results of the watershed modelling
exercise were shared through a series of coloured charts (Fig. 5).
The participants expressed keen interest in the exercise and
related it to the water stress they were currently facing. They were
requested to recall and prepare a timeline of key developments
that have taken place in the village over the last fifty years, and
have impacted their lives and livelihoods (Fig. 6). They were asked
to reflect on the watershed modelling results and brainstorm
about future scenarios. This helped stimulate discussion about
possible adaptation interventions, which are summarized in
Table 5.
6. Discussion
The survey in Lakhwar and Chhotau villages revealed that
current coping capacity of people in the region to climate
variability and water stress is quite low. Households are
considerably dependent on low-value rainfed agriculture. Institu-
tional capacity is also poor, particularly in terms of connectivity
and the availability of formal credit, which constrains their ability
to use their agricultural skills and assets more effectively. They
also have limited human resources in terms of formal education or
vocational skills, which limits their options in seeking off-farm
employment opportunities.
The types of responses to poor rainfall reported by households
are only temporary coping measures, some of which, like selling
assets or taking loans from traditional moneylenders, may
actually increase their vulnerability over time by worsening
impoverishment or indebtedness. As they move towards non-
agricultural jobs in the city, they appear to be making a more
lasting adaptation to climate stresses, but in so doing many are
becoming more vulnerable due to dislocation and disruption of
their familiar way of life.
In general, the richer and more detailed scenario discussions in
Lakhwar reflect the higher education levels and relatively more
comfortable economic status of this community. Both villages,
however, were similar in their belief that agriculture in its present
form is simply not a viable livelihood for future generations. There
was concern about unemployment (‘‘crime will rise and we will
get the same atmosphere as in the plains’’), and the discussions
focused less on interventions related to water resources and more
on alternative livelihood opportunities. There was a sense that one
cannot go back to the old way of life due to changing economic
structures, tastes, and aspirations.
Many of the desired interventions are highly ambitious and
require not just technical inputs but demand surveys and a
reliable raw material sourcing and marketing chain. However,
water harvesting interventions are clearly feasible, and are being
promoted by the Government of Uttarakhand, albeit in a top-
down manner without always understanding the ground situa-
tion. One of the success stories reported by the Watershed
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572 U. Kelkar et al. / Global Environmental Change 18 (2008) 564–574

Fig. 5. Sharing of watershed modelling results with women in Lakhwar village.

Fig. 6. Timeline exercise in Lakhwar village.

Management Directorate of Uttarakhand is water harvesting in 7. Conclusions

village Kui in Nir microwatershed. The village, with 31 house-
holds, had only a pipeline with scanty and irregular flow, 1 km
below the habitation. Twenty-eight roof harvesting tanks
were constructed, with the villagers being responsible for the
purchase of collection pipes. There was a positive impact on
agriculture, hygiene, and women’s daily burden. While earlier the
villagers grew few vegetables (potato, garlic, coriander) in the
rainy season in their homestead to meet their household needs,
they could now grow onion, green pea, and carrot, and increase
the production of potato, garlic, and coriander, making a profit of
Rs 587–1030 per household. Hygiene too improved with avail-
ability of water allowing regular bathing, washing of clothes and
of animals. Time spent by women on collecting water also
reduced considerably (Watershed Management Directorate Uttar-
anchal, 2004).
The study was formulated as a pilot case for the application of
a participatory approach, whereby insights can be gained into
vulnerability and adaptive capacity through mutual learning and
exchange with the affected communities. The interactions with
communities acutely highlighted the mismatch between top-
down policy recommendations and ground-level needs and
aspirations. It is difficult to reconcile a situation where there is
severe lack of water and near abandonment of farming as a
livelihood, with the National Water Policy (2002) which lays
emphasis on the sale of water, and the right of the government or
gram sabhas to sell excess water.
The sharing of modelling results with the community, however,
can benefit through the presentation of more dynamic information.
The replication and refinement of the study methodology can help
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U. Kelkar et al. / Global Environmental Change 18 (2008) 564–574 573

Table 5 funded by the David and Lucille Packard Foundation and

Adaptation interventions identified by village communities coordinated by START in partnership with IIASA. The authors
would like to thank the Institute’s faculty, mentors, and super-
Adaptation interventions identified by Adaptation interventions identified by
agricultural households in Lakhwar agricultural households in Chhotau visors, especially Ms. Barbara Huddleston, retd FAO; Ms. Preety
Bhandari, TERI; Dr. Frank Biermann, Potsdam Institute; and Dr.
Coping with current water levels Joanne Linerooth-Bayer, IIASA, for their valuable comments at
Individual Community/individual different stages of the study. We would like to express our
Grow pulses for self-consumption and Cultivation of medicinal/aromatic
enhancement of soil nitrogen plants, horticulture on barren patches
appreciation to SMTA staff and advisors, and particularly to its
Resume cultivation of mundhwa which Director Mr. Ruben Furtado for facilitating our interactions with
can be used in baby food and wine, the communities of Jaunsar-Bawar. Our deepest gratitude is to the
and jhangura which is used in people of Lakhwar and Chhotau villages for sharing their time and
pillows
thoughts with us.
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