Waste Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Waste Management
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/wasman

Forecasting municipal solid waste generation using artificial intelligence

modelling approaches
Maryam Abbasi ⇑, Ali El Hanandeh
Griffith School of Engineering, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD, Australia

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Municipal solid waste (MSW) management is a major concern to local governments to protect human
Received 23 May 2015 health, the environment and to preserve natural resources. The design and operation of an effective
Revised 16 April 2016 MSW management system requires accurate estimation of future waste generation quantities. The main
Accepted 18 May 2016
objective of this study was to develop a model for accurate forecasting of MSW generation that helps
Available online xxxx
waste related organizations to better design and operate effective MSW management systems. Four intel-
ligent system algorithms including support vector machine (SVM), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference sys-
Keywords:
tem (ANFIS), artificial neural network (ANN) and k-nearest neighbours (kNN) were tested for their
Municipal solid waste
Artificial intelligence
ability to predict monthly waste generation in the Logan City Council region in Queensland, Australia.
Support vector machine Results showed artificial intelligence models have good prediction performance and could be successfully
Artificial neural network applied to establish municipal solid waste forecasting models. Using machine learning algorithms can
k-nearest neighbours reliably predict monthly MSW generation by training with waste generation time series. In addition,
Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system results suggest that ANFIS system produced the most accurate forecasts of the peaks while kNN was suc-
cessful in predicting the monthly averages of waste quantities. Based on the results, the total annual
MSW generated in Logan City will reach 9.4
107 kg by 2020 while the peak monthly waste will reach
9.37
106 kg.
Ó 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Accurate projection of municipal solid waste quantities is
important for the successful planning of efficient waste manage-
ment system. Future estimations of municipal solid waste genera-
tion serve as a basis in the development of existing waste
management infrastructures as well as their further sustainable
development and optimization. Imprecise forecasts may lead to
widespread problems, such as inadequate or excessive waste dis-
posal infrastructure (collection, incineration, landfilling or process-
ing) (Buenrostro et al., 2001). Therefore, the demand for reliable
data concerning waste generation is implicitly included in the
majority of national waste management laws (Antanasijević
et al., 2013). However, the process of forecasting MSW generation
is often challenging and compound by rapidly changing and
uncontrollable parameters (Beigl et al., 2008).
There is a growing body of literature on forecasting municipal
solid waste (MSW) generation which includes a high heterogeneity
of applied models from purely application-oriented to highly
sophisticated academically inclined tools (Chung, 2010). Over the
⇑ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: m.abbasi@griffith.edu.au (M. Abbasi).
period from 1970 to 2014, more than 80 studies addressing the
topic of forecasting of MSW generation have been published.
MSW forecasting methods can be broadly classified into five main
categories: descriptive statistical methods (Bider and Franklin,
1980; Even et al., 1981; Sha’Ato et al., 2007); regression analysis
(Denafas et al., 2014; Franchetti, 2012; Vivekananda and Nema,
2014; Wei et al., 2013); material flow model (Liu et al., 2014;
Schiller et al., 2010; Tonjes and Greene, 2012; Zhang et al.,
2012); time series analysis (Katsamaki et al., 1998; Navarro-Esbrí
et al., 2002; Xu et al., 2013); and artificial intelligence models
(Abbasi et al., 2014; Antanasijević et al., 2013; Kumar et al.,
2011; Noori et al., 2010). However, all modelling approaches have
their own strengths and weaknesses.
Conventional and descriptive statistical methods of forecasting
MSW generation usually use population growth and average per-
capita waste generation as the main predictor (Abdoli et al.,
2012). However, this method is no longer effective due to the
dynamic characteristics of MSW generation process (Abbasi et al.,
2013). Regression analysis is a widely used modelling technique
because of the simplicity of underlying mathematics and well-
developed statistical theory. In regression analysis, MSW genera-
tions are associated with economic and demographic variables
(Abdoli et al., 2011). In order to conform with the theoretical

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2016.05.018
0956-053X/Ó 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article in press as: Abbasi, M., El Hanandeh, A. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation using artificial intelligence modelling
approaches. Waste Management (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2016.05.018
2 M. Abbasi, A. El Hanandeh / Waste Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx
assumptions of regression, input variables must meet stringent
requirements such as independence, constant variance and nor-
mality of errors (Hockett et al., 1995). All of these requirements
place limitations on the suitability of regression for predicting
MSW generation as a complex real-world problem. The material
flow model can fully characterize the dynamic properties in the
process of solid waste generation. However, this modelling
approach can be used for predicting total waste rather than col-
lected waste (Beigl et al., 2008). Nevertheless, collected waste
may still be estimated where recycling and littering rates are
known. However, Hockett et al. (1995), after analysing results
obtained from input-output models like material flow analysis,
highlighted that comparisons of the results with real observed
waste data on the highest aggregation levels were questionable
due to the presence of different aggregations or because of low
consistency within the studies. Hekkert et al. (2000) further sug-
gested that comparison may even prove to be impossible because
studies on final consumption are almost completely lacking. In
contrast with the previously mentioned methods, time series anal-
ysis does not rely on the estimation of social and economic factors;
thus it has the advantage of overcoming the lack of social parame-
ters and other predictors. Time series data of waste generation are
dynamic in nature, and it is possible to employ non-linear tools in
order to discern relationships within the time series.
In recent years, artificial intelligence models and machine
learning such as support vector machine (SVM), adaptive neuro-
fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and artificial neural network
(ANN) have been gaining popularity because of their high flexibil-
ity and proven prediction abilities (Abbasi et al., 2013, 2014;
Antanasijević et al., 2013). Intelligent models are shown to be cap-
able of predicting MSW generation on long, medium and short
term scales (Abbasi et al., 2014; Abdoli et al., 2012; Jalili Ghazi
Zade and Noori, 2008). However, there is limited information about
monthly prediction of MSW generation as well as optimal algo-
rithm for this purpose. This paper will review the state of the art
of the intelligent modelling approaches for MSW generation fore-
cast and then apply them to a real case scenario in order to identify
the most suitable algorithm to predict MSW collected by kerbside
service on a medium-term scale.
2. Application of artificial intelligence in forecasting MSW
generation
Advanced artificial intelligence forecast systems have shown
superiority to conventional models in engineering problems as
well as in waste management research (Abdoli et al., 2012). Recent
research in this topic focused on using artificial intelligence models
to deal with the non-linearity of the historical data. In this section,
application of the techniques including ANN, ANFIS, SVM and k-
nearest neighbours (kNN) will be reviewed in the field of MSW
generation.
2.1. Artificial neural network
Artificial neural networks are cellular information processing
systems designed and developed on the basis of the perceived
notion of the human brain and its neural system (Firat et al.,
2010). One of the most beneficial and significant features of ANN
in forecasting is its learning ability. ANN can construct a complex
nonlinear system through a set of input/output examples. Conse-
quently, ANN has been successfully employed in nonlinear system
modelling (Firat et al., 2010). Accordingly, the nonlinear structure
of MSW generation makes the ANN an ideal candidate for forecast-
ing waste generation. Literature survey returned applications of
ANN to forecast MSW generation in short, medium and long-
Please cite this article in press as: Abbasi, M., El Hanandeh, A. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation using artificial intelligence modelling
approaches. Waste Management (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2016.05.018
term periods (Abbasi et al., 2013; Abdoli et al., 2012; Noori et al.,
2010).
Ordóñez-Ponce et al. (2006) employed multi-layer perceptron
neural network to predict long-term generation rate of MSW in
Chile. Using a range of variables which covered socio-
demographic, economic, geographic and waste-related factors,
ANN was able to predict waste generation with great accuracy
(R2 = 0.819). Ordóñez-Ponce et al. (2006) concluded that popula-
tion, percentage of urban population, years of education, number
of libraries and number of indigents were the most important fac-
tors which affected waste generation in Chile.
The ability of ANN to predict short-term MSW generation was
also examined by other researchers (Noori et al., 2009a,b). These
studies focused on forecasting MSW generation by analysing time
series of waste generation rather than analysing effective factors in
waste generation. Results showed that feed-forward ANN with one
hidden layer and 16 neurons was the best structure to forecast
short-term waste generation rates (Noori et al., 2009a,b). However,
ANN accuracy may suffer when faced with large database due to
the effect of irrelevant, redundant and noise in the data. Therefore,
different input selection methods such as principal component
analysis, wavelet transform and gamma test were introduced to
deal with accuracy loss (Noori et al., 2009a,c). Although ANN model
has good ability to forecast MSW generation, its performance suf-
fers because of its tendency to over-fitting training, local mini-
mum, and poor generalization.
2.2. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems
Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) are a well-
known data driven modelling technique that combines ANN and
fuzzy logic. ANFIS is composed of two parts, antecedent and con-
clusion, which are connected to each other by fuzzy rules based
on the network form. Limited attempts, 3 studies, to predict waste
generation using ANFIS were found in the literature. The studies
compared the performance of ANN and ANFIS models ability to
predict MSW generation (Chen and Chang, 2000; Noori et al.,
2009c; Tiwari et al., 2012). Tiwari et al. (2012) suggested that
ANFIS is a more reliable model than ANN for forecasting the aggre-
gate impact of economic trend, population changes, and recycling
on solid waste generation. Chen and Chang (2000), on the other
hand, demonstrated the ability of ANFIS to forecast waste genera-
tion with limited input data. Chen and Chang (2000) and later
Noori et al. (2009c) applied fuzzy goal regression method to
improve the overall prediction accuracy of ANFIS.
2.3. Support vector machine
Support vector machine (SVM), a novel neural network algo-
rithm, was developed by Vapnik and colleagues (Vapnik, 1995).
SVMs are a type of maximum margin classifiers which seek to find
a maximum margin hyperplane to the best line across data. The
hyperplane thus obtained is called the optimal separating hyper-
plane and the training examples that are closest to the maximum
margin hyperplane are called support vectors. While most of con-
ventional neural network models implement the empirical risk
minimization principle, SVM implements the structural risk mini-
mization principle. Neural network model seeks to minimize the
misclassification error or deviation from correct solution of the
training data but the SVM searches to minimize an upper bound
of generalization error. Therefore, the solution of SVM may be glo-
bal optimum while other neural network models may tend to fall
into a local optimal solution. Thus, SVM is unlikely to result in
overfitting (Kim, 2003).
SVM model was used to forecast weekly MSW generation in
Tehran city, Iran by Abbasi et al. (2013). They concluded that
 M. Abbasi, A. El Hanandeh / Waste Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx
SVM could predict MSW generation in a short term scale with rea-
sonable accuracy. Further, Abbasi et al. (2014) found that pre-
processing of input variables by wavelet transform method can
improve the accuracy and robustness of the model.
2.4. k-nearest neighbours
Due to its simplicity and intuitiveness, k-nearest neighbours
algorithm is widely adopted for regression and classification (Wu
et al., 2008a). The application of kNN to time series forecasting
under nonparametric locally weighted regression condition was
presented independently by Yakowitz (1987) and Cleveland
(1979). kNN has also drawn attention in the field of time series
forecasting because of work presented by Meade (2002). The
underlying intuition to apply kNN to univariate time series is that
consistent data-generating processes often produce observations
of repeated patterns of behaviour. Therefore, if a previous pattern
can be identified as similar to the current behaviour of the time
series, the subsequent behaviour of previous pattern can provide
valuable information to predict the behaviour in the immediate
future. In the kNN regression algorithm introduced by Meade
(2002), the target variable of a time series forecasting problem is
presented as a sequence of interval scaled values. Given a pattern
whose future value is to be predicted, the algorithm identifies
the k most similar past patterns and combines them. So far, no
attempt has been made to evaluate the ability of kNN to forecast
MSW generation.
2.5. Summary of present studies
Forecasting of MSW generation can be classified into 3 different
groups according to how far in the future the forecast period is:
short-term forecasting (usually ranging from days to few months);
mid-term forecasting (usually range from few months to 3–
5 years); and long-term forecasting (usually attempting to forecast
many years ahead). Table 1 summarises the work which applied
intelligent modelling approach to forecasting MSW generation.
Choosing the best modelling approach for waste generation
depends on waste stream type, economic factors, purpose of the
modelling, and availability of data (Beigl et al., 2008). However,
aside from ANN and ANFIS, no attempt has been made to compare
the ability of different artificial models to predict MSW generation,
especially in midterm period with monthly time step. The follow-
ing section will compare the ability of artificial intelligence models
including ANFIS, SVM, ANN and kNN for monthly prediction of
MSW collected by kerbside service. To the best of the authors’
knowledge, this study is the first to apply kNN for forecasting
MSW generation as well as evaluate prediction ability of SVM,
ANN and ANFIS models for estimating monthly waste generation.
Table 1
Summary of MSW generation classified by forecast period and algorithm.
Forecast Reference Algorithm
period
Short-term Noori et al. (2009c) ANFIS and ANN
Jalili Ghazi Zade and Noori (2008), Noori ANN
et al. (2009a,b, 2010)
Abbasi et al. (2013, 2014), Noori et al. SVM
(2009d)
Medium-term Lupu et al. (2008) ANN
Long-term Chen and Chang (2000), Tiwari et al. ANFIS and ANN
(2012)
Abdoli et al. (2012), Antanasijević et al. ANN
(2013), Jahandideh et al. (2009), Kumar
et al. (2011), Ordóñez-Ponce et al. (2006)
Please cite this article in press as: Abbasi, M., El Hanandeh, A. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation using artificial intelligence modelling
approaches. Waste Management (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2016.05.018
3
3. Material and method
Time series analysis comprises methods that attempt to under-
stand the nature of the series and is often useful for future forecast-
ing and simulation. In time series forecasting, past observations are
collected and analysed to develop a suitable mathematical model
which captures the underlying data generating process for the ser-
ies. The future events are then predicted using the model. This
approach is particularly useful when there is not much knowledge
about the statistical pattern followed by the successive observa-
tions or when there is a lack of a satisfactory explanatory model.
Here a model was built to predict one step ahead and the vari-
able which is used as an input is the waste generation, where Wt is
the waste generation at time instance t. A simple time series pre-
diction performs the following functional mapping:
W tþ1 ¼ f ðW t ; W t1 ; . . . ; W tp1 Þ ð1Þ
In Eq. (1), the waste generation at time (t + 1) is a function of the
waste generations at previous time. Therefore, at time t, a one step
ahead forecast Wt+1 is computed using p number of the past obser-
vations Wt, Wt1, . . . , Wtp1. While, p was 12 in this study, Wt+1
was forecasted by waste generation in past twelve month equiva-
lent to a year. To compare forecasting ability of artificial intelli-
gence models to predict MSW generation, real data on waste
generation obtained from the city of Logan, Australia was used.
3.1. Theory and development of ANFIS
The most basic and common Sugeno method of fuzzy inference
structure system which has validation capability by training data
was used in this study (Rezaee and Zarandi, 2010). Fig. 1 shows
an ANFIS system with two inputs, one output and two rules. This
system has two inputs x and y and one output, where its rules are:
If x is A1 and y is B1 ; then f 1 ¼ p1 x þ q1 y þ r1 ð2Þ
If x is A2 and y is B2 ; then f 2 ¼ p2 x þ q2 y þ r2 ð3Þ
Ai and Bi are fuzzy sets, fi is the output within the fuzzy region
specified by the fuzzy rule, pi, qi and ri are the design parameters
that are determined during the training process.
Every node computes the degree of activation of any rules in the
second layer. The membership functions are then multiplied in this
layer:
wi ¼ lAi ðxÞ
lBi ðyÞ i ¼ 1; 2 ð4Þ
where lAi (x) is membership degree of x in Ai set, lBi (y) is the mem-
bership degree of y in Bi set.
The ith node computes (third layer) the ratio of activity degree
of i rule to the sum of activation degrees of all rules. wi is normal-
ized membership degree of i rule.
wi
 ¼
w i ¼ 1; 2 ð5Þ
w1 þ w2
The output of any node is calculated in the fourth layer:
wi f i ¼ wi ðpi x þ qi y þ r i Þ ð6Þ
where p, q and r are changeable consequent parameters. The final
network output f is produced by the node of the fifth layer as a sum-
mation of all incoming signals. The final outputs (number of nodes
equals to output parameters) of all nodes are derived in the fifth layer.
X P
wi f i
Ov erall Output ¼ wi f i ¼ Pi ð7Þ
i wi
i
In the ANFIS system, each input parameter might be clustered
into several class values to build up fuzzy rules, and each fuzzy rule
would be constructed using two or more membership functions
4 M. Abbasi, A. El Hanandeh / Waste Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx

Fig. 1. Structure of the ANFIS network.

(Abraham, 2001). Several methods have been proposed to classify X

N

the input data and to make the rules. In this study, the one-pass ðai  ai Þ ¼ 0
i¼1
subtractive clustering algorithm is used for data classification. It ð11Þ
is a fast algorithm for estimating the number of clusters and the 0 6 ai 6 C
cluster centres in a set of data by getting the cluster radius (r).
0 6 ai 6 C ; i ¼ 1; 2; . . . ; N
The radius (r) of each data cluster should be optimized and may
vary between 0.1 and 0.95 (Noori et al., 2009c). The above objective function in Eq. (10) is a convex function,
and the solution to Eq. (10) is unique and optimal. Subsequent to
3.2. Theory and development of SVM the determination of Lagrange multipliers in Eq. (10), the parame-
ters w and b in support vector regression function can be calculated
For forecasting purpose, e-type support vector regression under Karush-Kuhn-Tucker complementarities conditions (Wu,
method was employed in this study (Clarke et al., 2005). The e- P
2009), where W ¼ Ni¼1 ðai  ai Þ/ðxi Þ. Consequently, the support
insensitive sparse solution saves CPU time during prediction vector regression function can be written as
because it does not take into account small residual errors. In a
SVM regression model, the functional dependence of the depen- X
N

dent variable y on a set of independent variables x should be esti- f ðxÞ ¼ ðai  ai ÞKðxi ; xÞ þ b ð12Þ
i¼1
mate by a deterministic function f(x) (f(x) = wT  K(x) + b) plus the
addition of some noise (y = f(x) + noise). The noise can be usually the kernel function K corresponding to
defined by error term (e).
To find a functional form for f(x) the SVM model should be cal- Kðxi ; xÞ ¼ /ðxi ÞT  /ðxÞ ð13Þ
ibrated on a sample set, a process that involves the sequential opti-
Kernels can be any symmetric function satisfying the Mercer’s
mization of an error function. Then, w and b are derived by
condition. Different kernels can be selected to construct different
minimizing the error function (Eq. (8)) subject to Eq. (9):
types of SVM. Typical examples include (Noori et al., 2009d):
1 T XN XN
w  w þ C ni þ C ni ð8Þ 1. Polynomial kernels K(x, xi) = [x  xi + 1]a
2 i¼1 i¼1
2. Radial basis function (RBF) kernels K(x, xi)=exp(c||x  xi||2)
3. Linear kernels K(x, xi) = x  xi
wT  /ðxi Þ þ b  yi 6 e þ ni
yi  wT  /ðxi Þ  b 6 e þ ni ð9Þ where x and xi is the unlabeled input and each of the training
ni ; ni P 0 ; i ¼ 1; . . . ; N inputs respectively. Where c and a are constants and the parame-
ters of the kernels. Gaussian radial basis function due to its popu-
where C indicates a positive constant, u denotes a set of nonlinear larity and accuracy was used as a kernel function in this study
transformations, N is the sample size, and ni and ni are slack vari- (Kumar et al., 2011).
ables specifying the upper and lower training error subject to an It is well known that SVM generalization performance depends
error term e. In the regression problem, most data examples are on a good setting of meta-parameters, especially: regularization
expected to be within the e-tube. If a data example falls outside parameter (C); precision parameter (e) and kernel parameter (c).
the tube, then an error ni and ni will exist. SVM reduces under- The regularization parameter (C) determines penalties to estima-
fitting and over-fitting problem by minimizing both the regulariza- tion errors, e. The parameter e represents the radius of the tube
P
tion term wT  w/2 and the training error term C Ni¼1 ðni þ ni Þ in Eq. located around the regression function. In other words, choice of
(8). Therefore, introducing a dual set of Lagrange multiplier i.e. ai e defines the magnitude of errors that can be neglected. Improper
and ai allows the optimization problem to be solved by maximizing selection of these parameters can cause over-fitting or under-
the quadratic programming algorithm (Eq. (10)) subjected to Eq. fitting problems. In data mining and machine learning 10-fold
(11). cross-validation is the most common (Refaeilzadeh et al., 2009).
This method has been employed to obtain optimal SVM parame-
X
N X
N X
N
yi ðai  ai Þ  e ðai þ ai Þ  0:5 ðai  ai Þ ters in two step grid search method. In the first step, a coarse grid
i¼1 i¼1 i;j¼1 search is taken using sets of values for C, c and e. In the second step,
a finer grid search is conducted around the optimal values obtained
ðaj  aj Þ/ðxi ÞT  /ðxj Þ ð10Þ
in the first step.

Please cite this article in press as: Abbasi, M., El Hanandeh, A. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation using artificial intelligence modelling
approaches. Waste Management (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2016.05.018
 M. Abbasi, A. El Hanandeh / Waste Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx 5

 ðkÞ
3.3. Theory and development of k-nearest neighbours ðkþ1Þ ðkÞ @E
wij ¼ wij  k ð20Þ
@wij
k-nearest neighbours (kNN) regression is an instance based lazy
learning algorithm (Wu et al., 2008b). It is a nonparametric where k is the learning rate. The training mode begins with random
method, where a new observation is placed into the class of the numbers of the weights and proceeds iteratively. The crucial prob-
observation from the learning set that is closest to the new obser- lem in the model is how to determine the numbers of hidden units.
vation, with respect to the covariates used. The determination of An optimal network topology from the number of inputs and out-
this similarity is based on distance measures. Formally this simple puts depends critically on the number of training cases, the amount
fact can be described as follows: Let of noise and the complexity of the function or classification. The
optimal number of neurons in hidden layer is determined by trial
L ¼ fðyi ; xi Þ; i ¼ 1; . . . ; nL g ð14Þ and error in this analysis.
be a training or learning set of observed data, where yi 2 {1, . . . , c}
denotes class membership and the vector xi = (xi1, . . . , xip) represents 3.5. Evaluation metrics
the predictor values. The determination of the nearest neighbours is
based on an arbitrary distance function D (x,xi). Then for a new There are many criteria that can be used to evaluate the perfor-
observation (y, x) the nearest neighbour (y(1), x(1)) within the learn- mances of forecasting models in the numerical study. In this paper,
ing set is determined by: the prediction performance of the proposed forecasting models is
evaluated through statistical metrics: coefficient of determination
Dðx; xð1Þ Þ ¼ minðDðx; xi ÞÞ ð15Þ (R2), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage
Error (MAPE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE).
and y^ ¼ yð1Þ , the class of the nearest neighbour, is selected as predic-
Pn
ðW i  W i Þ
2
tion for y. R2 ¼ 1  Pi¼1 ð21Þ
2
The notation x(j) and y(j) here describes the jth nearest neigh- n
i¼1 ðW i  W i Þ
bour of x and its class membership, respectively. rffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
1 Xn
The weighted kNN learning has two user-specific parameters to RMSE ¼ jW i  W i j2 ð22Þ
be determined including the number of nearest neighbours, k, and n i¼1
n   
the weights assigned to the selected neighbours. Specially, the per- 1X W i  W i 
MAPE ¼  ð23Þ
formance of kNN learning mainly depends on the locality control n i¼1 Wi 
parameter, k, which is usually chosen by empirical cross-
1X n
validation. The weights are specified by kernel methods using a MAE ¼ jW i  W i j ð24Þ
n i¼1
density function. In the implementation of kNN regression used
in this study, Gaussian kernel method is used with Gaussian den- where W, W⁄ and n is actual weight of generated waste, model out-
sity function. put and number of observation, respectively. All computations were
run on Windows XP operating system and MATLAB (Version
3.4. Theory and development of artificial neural network R2009a, Mathwork Inc.).

Multi-layer feedforward neural network is the most popular
ANN method. It has been applied widely in many fields because
of its superior ability to approximate non-linear functions with
high accuracy. Most applications of feedforward neural network
use some variation of the gradient technique, back propagation
algorithm, to optimize neural networks (He et al., 2005). A feedfor-
ward network is made up of several layers of processing elements.
The three layer feed forward neural network constructed in this
study with input layer, one hidden layer and output layer. Each
neuron in a certain layer is connected with all neurons in the next
layer. The connection between the ith and jth neuron is character-
ized by the weight coefficient wij. The output value of xi is deter-
mined by Eqs. (16) and (17).
X i ¼ f ðni Þ
X received and managed by the council is classified as MSW. The
ni ¼ wij xj
where ni is the potential of the ith neuron and function f (ni) is called
the transfer function.
f ðnÞ ¼ 1=ð1 þ expðnÞÞ
The weight coefficients wij is revised to minimize the sum of the
squared differences between the computed and required output
values. This is accomplished by minimization of the object function
E:
E ¼ 1=2ðx0  x0r Þ2
where x0 and x0r are the computed and required activities of the
output neuron. A back-propagation training algorithm is used to
vary the weight coefficients. It holds that
3.6. Case study and data
Logan City Council is one of the fastest growing regions in south
east Queensland, Australia. It is situated between the City of Bris-
bane to the north and Gold Coast to the south as shown in Fig. 2.
Logan city has a population of more than 280,000 inhabitants.
The city is divided into 63 suburbs and 12 divisions with one Coun-
cil. Logan has a subtropical climate, typical of the eastern coastal
locations of the high pressure belt of the southern hemisphere
(Mollasalehi, 2015).
Logan Council manages a range of waste services and facilities,
across residential and commercial waste streams. In addition, it
operates all waste facilities in the City and manages contracts with
private companies for collection services. The majority of waste
ð16Þ
ð17Þ monthly average MSW generation was 6,400,000 kg in 2014. Based
on Council audits of domestic waste bins, Council’s MSW is com-
posed of 25% food waste, 27% garden waste, 15% paper and card-
board (recyclable), 4% textiles, 4% nappies, 6% recyclable glass,
metal, and plastics, and 19% ‘others’ (including wood, rubber,
ð18Þ
leather, non-recyclable paper, cardboard, metal, and glass) (Logan
city council, 2014). In this study, monthly time series of MSW gen-
eration were collected over a eighteen-year period from July 1996
to June 2014.
4. Result and discussion
ð19Þ
This study simulated monthly MSW generation by 4 different
artificial intelligence models, SVM, ANN, ANFIS and kNN, to find
the best predictive model. Before starting the modelling process,

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approaches. Waste Management (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2016.05.018
6 M. Abbasi, A. El Hanandeh / Waste Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx

Fig. 2. Location of Logan city in Australia.

we needed to determine the best model structure for each algo-
rithm by determining model parameters. These parameters are dif-
ferent according to each model theory as discussed above.
One-pass subtractive clustering algorithm was used for data
classification in ANFIS, radius, r, was determined by trial and error
method. The cluster radius indicates the range of influence of a
cluster and consequently number of rules. In general, as the num-
ber of rules is increased, the difference between the predicted and
the obtained values decreases and more complex relations can be
modelled with a large number of rules. In this study, ANFIS model
was developed with different cluster radius to determine the num-
ber of clusters by results obtained from the model. Results showed
the best fuzzy structure in neural-fuzzy network for estimating
MSW generation was at radius of 0.14 where R2, MAE, RMSE, and
MAPE values were 0.98, 52.16, 175.88, and 0.008 respectively.
Fig. 3 demonstrates the model performance with different r values
with the optimum value marked by an arrow.
For SVM model, optimization using grid search method showed
that optimum values for C, c and e were 100, 41 and 0.001, respec-
tively. Optimal values were obtained by R2 and MAPE estimators as
shown in Fig. 4(a), and (b) respectively. Fig. 4 visually illustrates
parameter interdependencies, as expected, of C and c. In SVM,
the trade-off between complexity of decision rule and frequency
of error is controlled by changing the parameter C. the c parameter
defines the influence of a single training input. The bulge in Fig. 4
suggest that increasing C and c lead to better results but no longer
after the optimum value. Moreover, same results were obtained
using MAE and RMSE.
In kNN method, a large k value produces more precise predic-
tions as it reduces the overall noise; however, the compromise is

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approaches. Waste Management (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2016.05.018
 M. Abbasi, A. El Hanandeh / Waste Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx 7

Fig. 5. Determining k variable in kNN method.

Fig. 3. Optimal r to construct the best structure for ANFIS model.

that the distinct boundaries within the feature space are blurred.
Fig. 5 provides optimization information. As it can be seen, opti-
mum k was 6 with R2 = 0.51, MAE = 250.26, RMSE = 308.19 and
MAPE = 0.4.
As mentioned above, ANN includes the interconnections of a
number of neurons. The information received by the input layer
is processed by neurons in hidden layer with appropriate non-
linear transfer functions. The number of hidden neurons affects
the network complexity. If the network is too small, it will not
completely solve the problem or parts of it, and a too complex net-
work has the tendency to memorize the data. It concentrates too
much on the data presented for learning and tends toward mod-
elling the noise which may lead to underfitting or overfitting.
Number of neurons needs to be optimized by trial and error
method. The Optimal number of neurons in hidden layer was
determined to be 8 where R2 is 0.46 as shown in Fig. 6. As expected,
performance of the model was improved as number of neurons
increased to 8 and then performance decreased due to overfitting
problem.

Fig. 4. SVM parameter optimization by grid search method.

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approaches. Waste Management (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2016.05.018
8 M. Abbasi, A. El Hanandeh / Waste Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx

Fig. 8. Comparison of models’ performance by R2 and RMSE.

Fig. 6. Determining optimal neuron number in ANN method.

for forecasting monthly waste generation. Although kNN was less

4.1. Forecasting monthly MSW generation by artificial intelligence
accurate than ANFIS, it could predict average value of waste gener-
models
ation accurately. This can be explained according to the fundamen-
tal of kNN theory which estimates future values based on nearest
In order to get an effective evaluation of kNN, ANN, ANFIS and
data. In addition, results revealed ANN had the lowest performance
SVM models performance, the best model structures were used.
in comparison with the other models.
85% of the data was used for training, 15% for testing and 10% of
Estimating maximum and average quantities of waste produced
the training dataset for validation. Monthly MSW generation in
by household in a region is critical for designing and operating the
Logan city was predicted by ANFIS, ANN, SVM and kNN as shown
waste management system. Understanding maximum waste gen-
in Figs. 7 and 8. Moreover, Table 2 summarises accuracy of each
erated in a city allows managers to estimate required facilities
model during training and testing stages.
related to waste collection and disposal accurately at the highest
As evident from Figs. 7 and 8 and Table 2, the results indicated
demand. In addition, regular operation of a waste management
that all models performed well during the training stage with a
system depends on estimating an average generation rate in a year.
high R2, more than 0.8. However, during the test stage, there were
As shown in Fig. 6, ANFIS could produce accurate estimates at
substantial differences between the models. ANFIS performed the
peaks, while results obtained from kNN model were close to the
best (R2 = 0.98). It showed good agreement with the observed data,
average value of waste generated in Logan City Council region.
and close predictions of the observed peaks. SVM ranked second in
Therefore, in the next section, ANFIS and kNN were employed to
terms of its accuracy in matching the observed data (R2 = 0.71).
determine maximum and average of monthly waste generation
However, it tended to underestimate the peaks and generated vol-
for the future period 2015–2020.
umes. Prediction ability of kNN was in middle. Nevertheless, it was
the closest in estimating monthly average values of generated
waste. ANN was the least accurate in matching the observed data 4.2. Projection of monthly MSW generation in Logan city
(R2 = 0.46).
ANFIS is a class of adaptive networks that provides nonlinear As demonstrated in the previous section, ANFIS accurately esti-
ability, capacity for fast learning, and adaptation capability mated waste generation at peaks while kNN was successful in esti-
(Tiwari et al., 2012). Earlier studies demonstrated good ability of mating monthly average values. Fig. 9 shows projections of
SVM and ANFIS for forecasting MSW generation (Abbasi et al., monthly MSW generation in Logan city for the coming five years
2014; Noori et al., 2009c). Results obtained from this study support period (2015–2020). Results predict that 1,270,000 kg will be
these findings, but also shows the superiority of ANFIS algorithm added to the monthly average value of generated waste by 2020.

Fig. 7. Modelling results produced by ANFIS, ANN, SVM and kNN.

Please cite this article in press as: Abbasi, M., El Hanandeh, A. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation using artificial intelligence modelling
approaches. Waste Management (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2016.05.018
 M. Abbasi, A. El Hanandeh / Waste Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx 9

Table 2
Accuracy of SVM, ANFIS, ANN and kNN models to forecast monthly MSW generation in Logan city.

Train Test
2
MAE RMSE MAPE R MAE RMSE MAPE R2
ANFIS 0.001 0.002 3.39E06 0.99 52.16 175.18 0.008 0.98
SVM 203.03 300.70 0.05 0.93 206.42 231.99 0.033 0.71
ANN 335.03 498.43 0.07 0.83 226.50 290.55 0.037 0.46
kNN 251.80 387.21 0.06 0.88 250 308.19 0.040 0.51

Fig. 9. Monthly MSW generation predicted by ANFIS, SVM and kNN.

Moreover, peak waste flow is forecast to grow by 2.7% in compar- is also the first to apply kNN modelling to waste generation fore-
ison to year 2014 peak value. Therefore, Logan Council may need casting. kNN was able to estimate average monthly waste genera-
more facilities to deal with the peak demand over the next 5 years tion rates with good accuracy.
period.

5. Conclusion
To ensure suitable MSW management in a town, the problem
must be addressed from its roots. Forecasting solid waste genera-
tion is a fundamental step in planning and operation of a waste
management system. Therefore, it is necessary for MSW managers
and decision makers to develop a tool for accurate predictions of
solid waste quantities generated.
Due to limitation of conventional methods of waste generation
estimation, choosing one statistical model may limit the ability to
find the best predictive model for waste generation data. In artifi-
cial intelligence models, the data inform the choice of model rather
than imposing a specific model a priori. In this study, four algo-
rithms of artificial intelligence were compared for their accuracy
of predicting waste generation rates. They were then employed
to forecast monthly MSW generation in Logan city, Australia. Our
results showed that artificial intelligence models provide promis-
ing tools that may allow decision makers to successfully forecast
future trends in MSW generation for planning and design of
MSW management purposes.
Based on the results obtained from the study, it can be con-
cluded that kNN, ANFIS and SVM models can give good prediction
performance and may be applied to establish the forecasting mod-
els that could provide accurate and reliable monthly MSW genera-
tion prediction. In addition, results suggest that ANFIS model
produced more accurate forecasts than kNN and SVM. This study
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge Logan Council for pro-
viding municipal waste generation data. The authors would also
like to thank Mr Brett Lee from Logan Council for his co-
operation. The authors would also like to thank Ms Siti Amri for
preparing the study area map.
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