Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Journal of Cleaner Production

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jclepro

An agent-based model approach for urban demolition waste

quantification and a management framework for stakeholders
Zhikun Ding a, b, c, Rongsheng Liu a, Yifei Wang d, Vivian WY. Tam e, *, Mingxue Ma e
a
Department of Construction Management and Real Estate, College of Civil Engineering, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, 518060, China
b
Sino-Australia Joint Research Center in BIM and Smart Construction, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China
c
Key Laboratory of Coastal Urban Resilient Infrastructures (MOE), Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China
d
Shenzhen Construction Science and Technology Promotion Center, Shenzhen, China
e
Western Sydney University, School of Built Environment, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Along with the rapid growth in construction industry, quantity of construction and demolition (C&D)
Received 17 May 2020 waste has increased significantly in recent decades. Demolition waste (DW) is identified as one signifi-
Received in revised form cant stream of C&D waste and it is vital to obtain reliable information of the waste quantity. However, the
15 September 2020
data of C&D waste generation in China is still insufficient. In this study, an agent-based model is
Accepted 29 October 2020
Available online xxx
developed to estimate the total volume of DW and the amount of DW generated at each stage of waste
disposal in Shenzhen, China. The findings present the greater capacity of deconstruction method in
Handling Editor: Zhifu Mi reduction of DW generation than conventional demolition method. In addition, the change from con-
ventional demolition to deconstruction method could bring about a dramatic difference in the amount of
Keywords: construction material saving. However, the results present that change of attitude towards the demo-
Construction and demolition waste lition method is a slow process, which explains the unsatisfactory performance of demolition waste
Demolition waste management (DWM) in Shenzhen. Relying on the attitude change of demolition companies is not
Demolition waste management enough to improve the performance of DWM. Related stakeholders should pay additional attention on
Agent-based modelling
DWM. Furthermore, an optimized management framework with involvement of related stakeholders is
developed in this study.
© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Construction and demolition (C&D) waste is identified as one of
the most significant solid waste streams (Rodriguez-Robles et al.,
2015). Along with the rapid growth in construction industry, the
quantity of C&D waste has increased significantly in last decades
(Nagapan et al., 2012), with global generation of approximately 3.0
billion tonnes annually (Akhtar and Sarmah, 2018). C&D waste can
be classified into three categories: construction waste, renovation
waste and demolition waste (Wu et al., 2014). Specifically, in some
countries, such as China (Wang et al., 2014), United States (Epa,
2009) and Norway (Bergsdal et al., 2007), demolition waste (DW)
usually accounts for more than 50% of the C&D waste generated.
However, without a proper management of waste, demolition
* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: ddzk@szu.edu.cn (Z. Ding), wangyyyfei@163.com (Y. Wang),
vivianwytam@gmail.com (V.WY. Tam).
activity can be wasteful (Chen and Lu, 2017), because demolition
approaches influence the amount of waste for reuse or recycling
heavily (Yeheyis et al., 2013). In addition, dependence on landfilling
has inevitably imposed adverse impacts on environment, including
occupation of useful land and waste of natural resources (Wang
et al., 2014). Therefore, as DW has great recycling potential
(Sormunen and K€ arki, 2019), measures for proper disposal of DW is
required (Ding et al., 2016b; Ortiz et al., 2010; Santos et al., 2019).
It is vital to obtain reliable information of the DW quantity
(Guerra et al., 2019; Wu et al., 2014) for the establishment of an
integrated and effective waste management system (Kofoworola
and Gheewala, 2009). Accurate estimation of C&D waste genera-
tion could contribute to the issue of realistic policies, and reason-
able resource arrangement (Wu et al., 2014). However, the data of
C&D waste generation in China is absent, because of the unavailable
system for annual data collection (Akhtar and Sarmah, 2018).
Effective estimation of C&D waste is a challenging problem in many
Chinese cities. Shenzhen, a city located in South China, plays a
leading role in China for C&D waste management (Wu et al., 2016a).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124897
0959-6526/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article as: Z. Ding, R. Liu, Y. Wang et al., An agent-based model approach for urban demolition waste quantification and a
management framework for stakeholders, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124897
Z. Ding, R. Liu, Y. Wang et al.
This city has experienced a rapid urbanization, with production of a
massive amount of DW (Wu et al., 2016a). However, the official data
of annual production of DW is not documented. This study in-
vestigates the volume of DW in Shenzhen.
Various quantification methods have been proposed in past
studies to quantify the DW volume, including site visit method
(Ansari and Ehrampoush, 2018; Malia et al., 2013; Vaz Lafayette
et al., 2018), generation rate calculation (GRC) (Tamraz et al.,
2012; Wu et al., 2017a; Zheng et al., 2017), lifetime analysis
(Bergsdal et al., 2007), classification system accumulation (CSA)
method (Coelho and de Brito, 2011a; Solis-Guzman et al., 2009),
variables modelling (VM) method (Cha et al., 2017b; Song et al.,
2017; Ye et al., 2010), and quantification method based on geog-
raphy information system (GIS) (Wu et al., 2016b). However, most
of these methods mainly focused on objective factors, but they
failed to consider the complex nature of demolition industry. De-
molition industry is featured as a dynamic, interactive, and com-
plex adaptive system (Hao et al., 2007; Jaillon et al., 2009; Wang
et al., 2014), because waste generation results are influenced by
stakeholders’ decision. For example, contractors can averagely
reduce 50% of waste generation by adopting prefabrication tech-
nique (Jaillon et al., 2009). Therefore, waste generation in demoli-
tion industry cannot be analyzed linearly and independently. In
order to adopt an appropriate quantification method, following
aspects should be considered: (1) the heterogeneity, autonomy,
adaptability of stakeholders, (2) dynamic interaction among
stakeholders with internal agents and external environment, (3)
complexity and adaptivity of the demolition waste management
system (DWMS).
In this study, an agent-based model is developed to estimate the
generation of DW in Shenzhen, China. This study aims to estimate
generation of DW under different demolition scenarios. The results
of this study reveal the dynamic evolution and interactions among
demolition stakeholders. An optimized management framework
with involvement of related stakeholders is developed. Table 1
presents the techniques, modelling and simulations used in this
paper.
2. Agent-based modelling approach
2.1. Introduction of agent-based modelling
Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a modelling methods pro-
moted by computer science. ABM is widely used in various fields,
including social sciences (Tong et al., 2018), ecology (Akopov et al.,
2017), economics (Akopov et al., 2017; Bert et al., 2015), political
science (Bonabeau, 2002) and construction project management
(Knoeri et al., 2011a,
2014,bib_Knoeri_et_al_2011a,bib_Knoeri_et_al_2014; Song et al.,
2019; Taghaddos et al., 2008). Compared with other modelling
techniques, such as discrete event simulation and system dy-
namics, this model emphasizes agents’ heterogeneity and the
emergence of self-organization (Macal and North, 2005). In
Table 1
Modelling and simulation techniques used in this research.
Description
Basic method Agent-based This model emphasizes heterogeneousness of different agents and dynamic interactions among related stakeholders, which is close
modelling to reality. In addition, the unique behavior rules of related stakeholders and dynamic interaction with other agents could be
considered under this model.
Modelling Five-step It is one of the specific methods that describe modelling procedures, and therefore helps users to systematically construct an agent-
modelling based model.
Simulation Repast software Repast, as a computer software, provides a platform to creating, running, displaying, and collecting agent-based simulation data.
Techniques Moreover, it has libraries and packages to construct complex and advanced model.
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addition, the unique behavior rules of related stakeholders and
dynamic interaction with other agents are considered under this
model (Hamill et al., 2016).
2.2. Characteristics of agent-based modelling
As described in the introduction chapter, the demolition in-
dustry is featured as a complex adaptive system. ABM considers
heterogeneousness of different agents and dynamic interactions
among related stakeholders, which is close to reality (Sajjadi
et al., 2019). Different from system dynamics method that
cannot curve characterizes and behaviors of each agent, each
stakeholder is considered as an independent agent and the
definition of the behavior rule is provided in ABM. In ABM, a
phenomenon can be generated dynamically from agent specifi-
cations (Yin et al., 2019). As the green management is not widely
adopted (Pantini and Rigamonti, 2020), it takes time for related
stakeholders to make a decision to participate in green man-
agement, which makes this process full of dynamics and con-
tingencies. Consequently, there is possibility that green
management might be widely applied or eliminated, which
might cause different quantity of DW generated. Besides, ABM
can investigate the micro behavior of agents and the subsequent
influences (Macy and Willer, 2002). In the DW industry, gov-
ernment regulation largely shapes the behaviors of related
stakeholders (Chen et al., 2019). ABM can explore differences in
contractor’s management strategies when related policies are
changed. Therefore, as a method developed for complex system
analysis (Holland, 1995; Kauffman, 1993), ABM is applicable to
estimate the DW generation in Shenzhen.
2.3. Applications of agent-based modelling
A typical ABM includes three components: (1) agent’s states,
attributes, and behaviors; (2) agent rules which defines how agents
interact with each other; (3) the interaction environment (Van Dam
et al., 2012).
Previous studies have developed different modelling frame-
works to conduct ABM. A standard protocol (overview, design
concepts, and details (ODD)) was proposed by (Grimm et al. (2006);
Grimm et al. (2010)). Van Dam et al. (2012) introduced ten steps to
apply ABM in socio-technical system studies. Teo (2014) presented
a standardized process which consists of a sequence of steps to
develop ABM in researches related to social science. In this study, a
five-step ABM approach is established (Fig. 1), the details of
modelling method would be further discussed in Section 3:
Repast (Recursive Porous Agent Simulation Toolkit), which was
developed by the University of Chicago, is used for model devel-
opment and simulation in this study. This platform is a widely-
used, ABM and simulation toolkit, which supports the program-
ming of models, visualization and data analysis (Chu, 2010).
Z. Ding, R. Liu, Y. Wang et al.
Fig. 1. Main steps to build an agent-based model.
3. Model construction and simulation
Based on Section 2, the model for analyzing the waste genera-
tion in different phases and the cost-benefit of DWM throughout
the waste chain is built.
3.1. Research question
3.1.1. Problem formulation and actor identification
Demolition methods can be classified into two categories (Ding
et al., 2016a; Pantini and Rigamonti, 2020; Silva et al., 2014). (1)
Conventional demolition method is featured for a top-down de-
molition procedure. Explosives are used, resulting in the waste of
large amount of construction materials. (2) Deconstruction (also
named as selective demolition) means selective dismantlement of
building components for reuse, recycling, and landfill. For instance,
concrete waste can be sent to recycling plants and steels can be sold
back to market directly. Deconstruction of buildings emerges as an
alternative to conventional demolition. It promotes recycling and
reuse of building materials, because of the reduced dependence on
landfilling (Coelho and de Brito, 2011b; Silva et al., 2014). Different
demolition methods might affect the composition and character-
istics of the generated waste materials. The selection of demolition
methods gradually received wide attention in the demolition
market, for environmental (material recovery, reuse, recycling) and
economic considerations (Tamraz et al., 2012).
Demolition companies play a vital role in the selection of de-
molition methods. Despite the availability of deconstruction tech-
nology and its potential advantages, many demolition companies
prefer conventional demolition method, because of high expense
for deconstruction (Coelho and de Brito, 2011b) and influences
from other related stakeholders (Knoeri et al., 2011b,
2014,bib_Knoeri_et_al_2011b,bib_Knoeri_et_al_2014; Mak et al.,
2019). Demolition companies could be classified as conventional
or green managers based on their selection of demolition method.
While conventional managers refer to demolition companies who
use conventional method in the demolition process, green man-
agers refer to demolition companies who select deconstruction
technology and therefore contribute to the decreased reliance on
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landfilling. In addition, demolition companies are the holders of
DW, and therefore are the most suitable stakeholders to implement
effective DWM. How does the dynamic interactions among de-
molition companies and the selected demolition method affect the
quantity of DW generation requires additional attention. Govern-
ment is the main problem owner in this paper.
3.2. Specification-formalization
3.2.1. System identification and decomposition
The DWMS framework covers five subsystems: subsystem of
DW generation, subsystem of DW disposal, subsystem of DW
market, subsystem of DWM policy, subsystem of DWM assessment
(Fig. 2).
The system identification and decomposition are further refined
based on three aspects: 1). properties, actions, and interactions of
agents, 2). the specification of agents’ actions and its subsequent
impacts on their own state or communication with other actors; 3).
model environment.
In the model, demolition companies are identified as a primary
type of agents, which are represented by demolition manager
agents in simulation. Firstly, as described before, demolition com-
panies could be classified as conventional or green managers, based
on their selection of demolition methods. Secondly, from the
perspective of waste chain, the demolition phase covers a series of
waste management activities (Wu et al., 2017a). A conceptual
model illustrating the waste chain is shown in Fig. 3. Based on an
extensive review on past studies and official documents
(Abdelhamid, 2014; Coelho and de Brito, 2011b; Housing and
Construction Bureau, 2011; Shenzhen, 2012; Yuan, 2013; Yuan
and Shen, 2011; Yuan and Wang, 2014), some important factors
affecting waste management activities are also shown in the model
(Fig. 3). Thirdly, there is a threshold on the attitudes of each man-
ager agent toward different demolition methods, which defines the
rules for a transformation from a conventional manager into a
green manager or vice versa. In addition, manager agents’ attitude
is affected by mutual interaction among related stakeholders.
Fourthly, social space is represented by a two-dimensional grid,
which is the environment for all manager agents.
Z. Ding, R. Liu, Y. Wang et al. Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx

Fig. 2. The framework of demolition waste management system.

Fig. 3. A conceptual model of the DW chain and life cycle cost.

3.2.2. Concept formalization C DW generation/collecting/sorting/reusing/(recycling)/land-

The step of concept formalization proposes a detailed descrip-
tion of vital concepts in the system, including agents, their states
and properties. The conceptual representation of the data structure
in the model is depicted as follows:
Conventional Managers (conventional demolition method)/
Green Managers (deconstruction/selective demolition method)
have:
fill/illegal dumping/transportation: double
C Total waste materials saving: double
C Instigation probability (conventional manager)/Education
probability (green manager): double
0 and1
C Initial ratio of conventional manager/green manager: dou-
ble
0 and1
C Vision of neighbors: integer >0

4
Z. Ding, R. Liu, Y. Wang et al.
3.2.3. Model formalization
After identifying the model environment and agents, this step
defines the behavior of agent. In addition, this chapter presents the
model narrative, the vital considerations for modelling and the
expression of model narrative with pseudo-code.
Narrative [Conventional Managers/Green Managers do]:
C Daily demolition activities can lead to the DW generation.
However, different amounts of DW are generated corre-
sponding to the demolition methods adopted by different
managers. Meanwhile, because of differences in company
size, technical capability and many other factors, different
green managers will have different waste reduction rate.
C Waste collection is the first activity in DWM. It imposes
positive effects on the quantity of sorted waste. The more
waste materials are collected, the more materials can be
sorted. However, waste collection could reduce illegal
dumping efficiently. The percentage of waste collecting is
influenced by laws, policies, and other regulations on waste
management.
C Illegal dumping means that waste is disposed of in non-
designated areas. This is commonly found in rural areas,
undeveloped vacant ground or roadside. Most illegal
dumping is conducted to save time and fees for landfill. The
percentage of illegal dumping is affected by regulations and
landfill costs.
C Waste sorting is a process by which waste materials are
separated into different categories. Therefore, some recy-
clable materials can be sent to recycling plants directly. The
percentage of waste sorting depends on the regulations of
waste management.
C Waste reuse means the repeated use of the entire or part of
the waste for the same function. Recycling and reuse are two
important activities for waste minimization, but waste reuse
is a different process from recycling of recoverable materials
generated from demolition activities. The percentage of
waste recycling is affected by landfill costs.
C Landfilling should be considered as the last option for DW
disposal when recycling or reuse are unavailable, because
landfilling imposes adverse impacts on environment.
C Managers in the grid space can interact with other managers
through project collaboration, project bidding or related in-
dustry conferences. These interactions and communications
can greatly influence the attitude and decisions of managers.
3.3. Pseudo-code
According to above narrative and formalized concepts, the cor-
responding pseudo-codes are programmed. In fact, the narrative
and the pseudo-code are two different descriptions for the same
model. The difference is that the former is in a written format and
the latter consists of equations and computer code. Pseudo-code
can help to simulate the model and conduct quantitative analysis
(Yuan et al., 2011). For example, the pseudo-code of demolition
waste collection activities is presented in Table 2. Other model
narratives could be turned into pseudo-code in a similar pattern.
3.4. Modelling-verification-experimentation
3.4.1. Software implementation
After the formulation of model narrative and pseudo-code, an
appropriate modelling or programming environment should be
implemented. Empirical data in the model were collected from
previous literatures, official interviews and official documents from
the environmental department.
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Table 2
Model pseudo-code example.
Algorithm 3.2.3 Model pseudo-code example e demolition waste collection
activity
1 Each manager (State ¼ 0, Conventional Manager; State ¼ 1, Green Manager)
2 set demolition waste collection quantity to 0.0
3 get demolition waste collection quantity from Conventional Manager or
Green manager
4 if Incentive To Manage Waste < threshold (between 0 and 0.9)
5 set waste collection quantity to waste generation * percentage
6 else if Incentive To Manage Waste ¼ 1.0
7 set waste collection quantity to waste generation
8 end if
3.4.2. Model verification
The model verification is conducted before the execution of
simulation. The purpose of verification is to ensure that the model is
error-free. Four steps are performed to verify the model (Van Dam
et al., 2012). Firstly, relevant variables are identified and recorded,
and agents’ behaviors are traced. Secondly, a single-agent test is
conducted to verify the behaviors of each agent. Thirdly, as interac-
tion verification is limited to a minimal model, interactions among
agents are tested. Fourthly, multi-agent verification of the emergent
behaviors of various agents is conducted. A typical example which
examines the interactions among the agents in a minimal model is
illustrated in Fig. 4 (a). The minimal model includes two agents (i.e. a
conventional manager and a green manager), who interact with each
other over time under the predefined environment. The amount of
DW generation and agents’ interactions over time are presented in
Fig. 4 (a). Red and green lines present the volume of waste generated
from the conventional manager and the green manager respectively,
while the blue line presents the total amount of DW generated.
Green line has been below the red line for 1286 days, which means
that demolition method used by the green manager may have better
capacity in reduction of DW generation than the method used by
conventional managers. According to Fig. 4 (b), interactions between
the two agents turned the conventional manager into the green
manager in the 12856th day. Therefore, agents and relationships
from the conceptual model have been correctly translated into the
computational model, based on a certain number of ABM considers
heterogeneousness of different agents and dynamic interactions
among related stakeholders, which is close to reality.
3.4.3. Experimentation
After determination of variables and model verification, simulation
experiments are designed and performed. In terms of the experi-
mental design, implementers should be clear about the running time
of the experiment. Parameter space studies in this paper should be
defined. In addition, the number of simulations should be determined.
Experiment setup should be discussed. GM ratio refers to the initial
proportion of green managers in the demolition market. It can influ-
ence the interactions among related stakeholders and further affect
the generation and following treatment of DW.
In this paper, all the parameters (except GM ratio) are figured
out to explore the quantity of DW generation in Shenzhen. The
model simulation was repeated for 1000 times and the results from
simulation are shown in Fig. 5.
Experiment design e Explore the Amount of DW generation.
C General setup
- Ticks [6120]: Each tick ¼ 1 day. So, 6120 days is equivalent
to 17 years covering the period of year 2010e2026. Ac-
cording to the results of model verification, it is enough to
study both the transition and the equilibrium phase and
explore the quantity of DW generation.
Z. Ding, R. Liu, Y. Wang et al.
Fig. 4. An example of model verification (amount of DW generation when Default Random Seed ¼ 1,583,841,387; Educate Probability ¼ Instigate Probability ¼ 0.5; Manager
Count ¼ 2; Unit Landfill Charge ¼ 6; Vision Range ¼ 4.).
- Repetitions [100]: Enough to get a good sample of results,
not unfeasible for the hardware setup.
C Parameter settings
- Number of Manager (or Number of Demolition Com-
panies): [100].
- Degree of Neighbors [4]: With 100 agents in total, a degree
of neighbors of 4 means each agent knows about 1/4 of the
agents.
- Instigate Probability [0.5]: It is the probability of the con-
ventional manager to influence the green manager when
they interact with each other.
- Educate Probability [0.5]: It is the probability of the green
manager to influence the conventional manager when they
interact with each other.
- Unit Landfill Charge [30]: A landfill charge of 5.88 yuan is
imposed.
- Ratio of Green Manager [0e1, Interval 0.1]: The initial
percentage of green manager in the market.
C Output at each tick
- The tick.
- Random seed used (to reproduce the results).
- Total amount of DW generated.
- Total amount of DW collecting/sorting/reusing/recycling/
landfill/illegal dumping/transportation.
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- Total DW materials saving.
- Number of Conventional Manager and Green Manager.
3.4.4. Data analysis
Based on the results from simulation, two aspects are focused in
this chapter: (1) the amount of DW generation and (2) the time
required for the managers to change their attitude to deconstruc-
tion method. Excel and MATLAB are used for data analysis.
3.5. Explore the amount of DW generation
The total amount of DW generation is shown in Fig. 6. During 17
years (from 2010 to 2026), along with the variation of DW amount,
there is a change of GM ratio. The amount of DW generation pre-
sents a significant decrease in the growth of GM ratio. As shown in
Fig. 6 (b), when GM ratio is 0.1 and all the demolition companies
utilize the conventional demolition methods, 188.56 million tons of
DW will be generated during the period from 2010 to 2026 in
Shenzhen. When the GM ratio is 1 and all the demolition com-
panies use the deconstruction methods, 136.5 million tons of DW
will be generated from 2010 to 2026. The amount of DW generated
in the 17 years will decrease by 52.06 million tons if all demolition
companies use deconstruction techniques. Moreover, interactions
Z. Ding, R. Liu, Y. Wang et al.
Fig. 5. Model simulation interface.
among demolition companies impose great impact on the reduc-
tion of DW generation. Hence, efforts should be made to promote
the implementation of green management and deconstruction
technologies.
The analysis of DW generated at different stages can help to
identify that at which stage the DW are appropriately processed
and at which stage further improvement is needed. The findings
can facilitate a proper design for waste management plans at each
stage. Fig. 7 presents the amount of waste at seven stages in DWM.
The seven stages are transportation, collecting, sorting, reusing,
recycling, landfill, and illegal dumping. With the increase of GM
ratio, the amount of DW at transportation, landfill, collecting, and
sorting stage shows a significant downward trend. The DW gener-
ated at landfill stage shows the most significant decreasing trend,
with a decreasing amount from 160.73 million tons to 87.54 million
tons. In contrast, the amount of DW generated at reusing and
recycling stages showed a dramatic upward trend and reached
81.82 million tons and 24.98 million tons separately. The amount of
DW generated at illegal dumping stage is minimal and shows a
downward trend. The amount is decreased from 962,100 tons to
669,000 tons with an increasing GM ratio. Moreover, when the GM
ratio is 1, the amount of DW generated at collecting, sorting, landfill
and reusing stages are substantially equal. Therefore, the change of
demolition companies’ attitude and the application of decon-
struction technology have significant impacts on land conservation
and the promotion of waste recycling.
The saved construction materials during the demolition process
are mainly from reuse and recycling stages. The results of total
amount of construction materials saving is shown in Fig. 8. During
the 17 years, the amount of construction materials saving varies in a
certain range, with the change of GM ratio. The amount of con-
struction materials saving showed a significant upward trend,
along with the increase of GM ratio. In Fig. 8 (b), the top curve with
the GM ratio of value 1 denotes the maximum construction ma-
terial saving on average. It forms a clear contrast with the bottom
curve, which delineates the minimum construction material saving
on average. Besides, the change from conventional demolition to
deconstruction could bring about a dramatic difference in the
amount of construction material saving. Therefore, the trans-
formation from conventional demolition to deconstruction is
imperative.
The X-axis, Y-axis or Z-axis in Fig. 9 are the total amount of DW
7
Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
generation, the total amount of construction materials saving and
GM ratio. As described in Fig. 9 (a), the total amount of DW gen-
eration is gradually reduced along with the increase of GM ratio.
The increase of total amount of construction materials saving is
presented by the stair-step in Fig. 9 (b). In addition, the change of
demolition companies’ attitude towards the demolition method
has positive effects on the DWM. Therefore, related regulations
should be issued to promote the deconstruction technology.
3.5.1. Explore the time required for the companies to change the
attitude
The change of demolition companies’ attitude towards demo-
lition methods impose great impact on the performance of DWM.
Therefore, it is necessary to explore the time for demolition com-
panies to change their attitude toward the deconstruction tech-
nology. Fig. 10 shows the time required to change demolition
companies’ attitude under nine GM ratios (from 0.1 to 0.9). Spe-
cifically, when the GM ratio is 0.1 and 90% of the demolition com-
panies use the conventional demolition methods, it takes 8 years
for all demolition companies turning to the conventional demoli-
tion. However, it takes 15 years for all demolition companies
turning to the deconstruction methods averagely. Moreover, only
one of 100 simulations presents the situation that all demolition
companies turn to the deconstruction demolition methods, while
the probability of all demolition companies turning to the con-
ventional demolition methods is approximately 79%. Thus, the
change of attitude towards the demolition method is a slow pro-
cess, which explains the current situation of DWM in Shenzhen. In
most cases, when the GM ratio is between 0.3 and 0.7, demolition
companies using the conventional demolition methods and the
companies using the deconstruction methods coexist in the simu-
lation process with an average value of 44 among the total 100
simulations. Therefore, relying on the attitude change of demolition
companies is not enough to improve the performance of DWM. The
External intervention, including government legislations and reg-
ulations, is needed.
3.6. Calibration-validation and model use
3.6.1. Model validation
Model validation is to ensure the applicability of the model in
the targeted domain and helps to understand existing problems. In
Z. Ding, R. Liu, Y. Wang et al.
Fig. 6. Total amount of DW generation. ((a). GM Ratio ¼ 0e1, N ¼ 0e1000; (b). GM Ratio ¼ 0e1, Simulation Times ¼ 100, Mean).
this study, model validation was carried out in two systematical
ways and examined by industry experts. Firstly, the validity of the
decomposed system and the defined agent behaviours was
confirmed by industry experts and literature review. This validation
process intends to ensure that the model can accurately present the
essential aspects of the real-world system. Secondly, results from
different models and experiment designs have been improved by
industry experts. Therefore, the model is proven to be sufficiently
accurate to reflect the real world and simultaneously includes the
essential ingredients to serve its intended use.
3.6.2. Model application
From the perspective of government, understanding the amount
8
Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
of DW generation is useful and necessary to promote appropriate
DWM. The total amount of DW generation, and the amount of DW
generated at each stage could be obtained from the simulation. In
other words, if the floor area of buildings under demolition is
known, the amount of DW generation in the next few years could
be estimated by the model. For example, when the GM ratio is 0.1,
the model could be used to estimate the amount of DW generated
in 2024 (20.62 million tonnes), 2025 (27.81 million tonnes), and
2026 (37.51 million tonnes), based on data of floor area of buildings
under demolition from 2020 to 2023. Few demolition companies
adopt deconstruction technology, with the DW generation saving of
0.71, 0.91, 1.19 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the model can be used to
explore how long the new demolition technology could be
Z. Ding, R. Liu, Y. Wang et al.
Fig. 7. Total amount of DW generated at each stage (GM Ratio ¼ 0e1, Simulation Times ¼ 100, 2000e2016 accumulated generation).
accepted by all demolition companies under different scenarios. For
instance, when the GM ratio is 0.1, it takes about 15 years for all
demolition companies to adopt the deconstruction technology.
4. Discussions
Following the rigorous modelling procedures, it can be proved
that the agent-based model is valid and able to reveal the waste
generation considering the dynamic change of stakeholders. Based
on analysis result, there are two parameters which significantly
influence DW generation in the agent-based model including (as
shown on Table 3): the ratio of GM and the time required for
managers to change their mind towards green management.
GM ratio is the initial proportion of green managers, who adopt
selective demolition/deconstruction in the demolition industry.
The result indicates that the higher proportion of GM can lead to
lower total demolition waste generation. Xia et al. (2015) has also
mentioned that the increasement of Chinese enterprises that
reduce emissions leads to better level of environmental perfor-
mance, which in turn improve the performance of enterprise.
Because of that, economic factor, as the most important driver of
contractor’s strategies (Wu et al., 2017c), is worth of exploring in
order to promote the ratio of GM and reduce demolition waste
generation.
In addition, the result also indicates that the change of con-
tractors’ attitude toward demolition techniques is a slow process,
which requires external intervene. The similar conclusion can also
be found in the research of Chen et al. (2021) that the adoption of
green building technique (GBT) would be under-developed without
government promotion. Furthermore, they point out that the
government would greatly influence the adoption of GBT through
providing financial incentives and making mandatory regulation. In
the other hand, Volk et al. (2019) mentioned that employees, de-
signers and engineers impose great impact on the contractors’
attitude towards green management. Therefore, the adoption of
green management cannot only be promoted by the evolution of
the contractor, but should be considered from a multi-stakeholder
perspective (Tian et al., 2014).
Considering the importance of afore-presented two parameters,
how to systematically promote the adoption and proportion of
green management is worth of exploring, and therefore a man-
agement framework is proposed based on these two parameters
and try to provide some management suggestions.
9
Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
4.1. Management framework
The demolition management system is a complex system that
involves various of stakeholders (Wang et al., 2019). The develop-
ment of stakeholders in the green management system can
improve the economic performance of the enterprise (Yin et al.,
2020; Zhu et al., 2017). Therefore, suggestions are mainly pro-
posed from the perspectives of different stakeholders. Table 4
presents the management framework based on the aspects of
contractors, employees, designers, engineers and government.
The term ‘employees’ refers to onsite workers who follow the
demolition plan and conduct demolition work. However, some
employees lack of the waste reduction awareness and have limited
knowledge about how to reduce waste generation (Wang et al.,
2008). Therefore, provision of training and education programs
may help employees to have a basic understanding of C&D waste
reduction (Li et al., 2018). Meanwhile, adoptions of company reg-
ulations and mutual supervision system can raise the awareness of
employees of environmental protection (Liu et al., 2019). On-site
supervision can be adopted as an effective way to promote the
application of waste reduction (Cha et al., 2017a).
Although waste reduction design can promote the imple-
mentation of green management (Tingley and Davison, 2011), a
great number of designers and engineers are still lack of environ-
mental awareness and experience in waste reduction (Ekanayake
and Ofori). Government requirement for waste reduction design
can be considered as an influential tool to enhance the designers’
awareness (Li et al., 2015). In addition, enacting technique regula-
tion and regularly trainings on waste reduction for designers can
enrich their related knowledge (Osmani et al., 2008). Advanced
technique kit, such as building information model (BIM) (Ge et al.,
2017), prefabrication technologies (Jaillon et al., 2009), can be
applied to reduce the DW generation. Green management design
database can provide references for designers to make green
management design.
Contractors are more concerned with financial returns and long-
term operation (Jim Wu et al., 2013), and profits brought by
adoption of deconstruction technologies can determine the be-
haviours taken by contractors (Wu et al., 2017c). According to
previous researches (Rios et al., 2015), this study provides some
suggestions. (1). Provision of financial incentives, such as waiving
permit fees or low disposal fee, could efficiently promote green
management (Bohne and Wærner, 2014; Milani, 2005). In addition,
indirect benefits could be obtained by companies who apply green
Z. Ding, R. Liu, Y. Wang et al.
Fig. 8. Total amount of DW Materials Saving. ((a). GM Ratio ¼ 0e1, N ¼ 0e1000; (b).
GM Ratio ¼ 0e1, Simulation Times ¼ 100, Mean).
management in its operation, because of the increased popularity
of this company in the demolition industry. As profits and costs
from green management are heavily influenced by the selection of
infrastructure for following waste treatment (Pantini and
10
Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
Rigamonti, 2020), improvement of infrastructure is vital to reduce
the costs (Milani, 2005). For example, the far distance from de-
molition sites and recycling facilities will increase the trans-
portation cost and the waste recyclability (Ghisellini et al., 2018).
(2). Advanced technique should be implemented (Wu et al., 2019).
As mentioned before, techniques such as BIM (Won and Cheng,
2017), prefabrication (Lu and Yuan, 2013), RFID (Cheng and Ma,
2011) can effectively reduce the waste generation. Cooperation
among research institutes and universities should be conducted to
apply those technique in practice (Bektaş and Tayauova, 2014). In
addition, local governments could take steps to implement pilot
projects in order to apply green management to the whole city.
(Bektaş and Tayauova, 2014). Therefore, contractors can learn from
those pilot projects, avoid making the same mistake and imple-
ment best practice of green management in a short time.
Supervision from government could enforce the mandatory
adoption of green management (Cha et al., 2017a; Chen et al., 2019;
Wu et al., 2017b). There are some suggestions worthy of further
consideration to ensure the applicability and effectiveness of reg-
ulations and laws. Government should clarify the responsibility on
different stakeholders in green management and simultaneously
enhance the follow-up supervision (Chen et al., 2019). Because of
limited manpower to conduct supervision, government can
encourage the participation of public to assist the supervision on
contractors (Joseph et al., 2012). Public can report contractors’
violence through official website, phone calls, emails, or mails
(Chen et al., 2019). Government can require contractors to regularly
record the generation of waste and its following treatment to
enhance the supervision. Besides, an appropriate scheme on waste
charge should be adopted to increase the cost of waste landfilling,
and therefore change the preferences of contractors (Li et al., 2020).
5. Conclusion
Along with the rapid growth in construction industry, the
quantity of C&D waste has increased significantly in last decades.
DW is identified as one significant stream of C&D waste and usually
accounts for more than 50% of C&D waste generation. It is vital to
obtain reliable information of the demolition waste quantity to
promote an effective waste management system, but the data of
C&D waste generation in China is absent. Various quantification
methods have been proposed in past studies to quantify the de-
molition waste volume, but most of these methods mainly focused
on objective factors, without considering the complex nature of DW
industry. This paper developed an agent-based model to estimate
the generation of DW and the amount of DW generated at each
stage in Shenzhen, China. It identified critical parameters during
quantification and formed a management framework for policy
makers to develop an efficient DWMS.
The findings showed the greater capacity of deconstruction
methods in reduction of DW generation than conventional demo-
lition method. When the GM ratio is 0.1 and all the demolition
companies utilize the conventional demolition methods, 188.56
million tons of DW would be generated during the period from
2010 to 2026 in Shenzhen. If all the demolition companies adopt
the deconstruction methods, 136.5 million tons of DW will be
generated during this period. It showed that the transformation
from conventional demolition to deconstruction could bring about
a dramatic difference in the amount of construction material
saving. However, the results presented that change of attitude to-
wards the demolition method is a slow process, which explains the
current DWM in Shenzhen. Therefore, relying on the attitude
change of demolition companies is not enough to improve the
performance of DWM. Government should pay additional attention
on DWM. In the aspect of contractor, economic tool will be the
Z. Ding, R. Liu, Y. Wang et al.
Fig. 9. The three-dimension diagram of triple indicators.
effective way to driven stakeholders.
The model used in this study is appropriate and suitable to be
used in the estimation of DW generation at regional level, because
it considers the complex nature of demolition industry. Compared
with other qualification methods, ABM emphasizes heteroge-
neousness of different agents and dynamic interactions among
related stakeholders, which is close to reality. The unique behaviour
rules of related stakeholders and dynamic interaction with other
agents could be considered under this model. In addition, this
11
Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
model could help to predict the waste generation in the following
few years and how long the new demolition technology could be
accepted by all demolition companies, which could help policy
makers in China to formulate suitable C&D waste management
strategies. Based on the findings of this study, a management
framework towards different stakeholders are suggested. For de-
molition workers and engineers, training and enacting behaviour
rule would be the powerful tools to implement waste reduction.
Contractors are benefit-oriented; therefore economic policies are
Z. Ding, R. Liu, Y. Wang et al. Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx

Fig. 10. Time for the demolition companies’ change in their attitude.

Table 3
Description of two critical parameters.

Model Parameter Description

Time required to change This parameter refers to the time required for contractors turning to green management. Less demolition waste would be generated if
attitude contractor adopts the green management in a shorter time.
GM ratio GM ratio refers to the initial proportion of green management in the demolition market. It can influence the interactions among related
stakeholders and further affect the generation and following treatment of DW.

effective to shape their strategy. Government should guarantee the Further improvement of the model in this study is in need.
enforcement of waste related regulations, take steps to improve the Firstly, the collection of real-world data on DWM could further
supply chain of demolition waste. improve the accuracy of the model. For example, through close

12
Z. Ding, R. Liu, Y. Wang et al. Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx

Table 4
A management framework based on simulation results.

Target Strategy References Examples and suggestions

Stakeholders

Employees 1. Company regulations to guide workers’ Liu et al. (2019)
behaviors.
2. Training and education programs
3.On-site supervision to promote
employees’ waste reduction behaviors.
Designers and 1.Appication of advanced technologies.
engineers
2.Training and education programs.
Contractors 1.Enhancement of financial incentives
(Deconstruction).
2. Promotion of advanced technique.
Government 1.Improvement of related laws and
regulations.
2.Continuous and effective supervision.
1. Provision of a guidance to specify the process for waste reduction.
2. Take waste reduction behavior as one of the key performance indicators.
Li et al. (2018) 1. Arrangement of waste reduction knowledge quiz.
2. Increase the awareness of environmental protection.
Cha et al. (2017a) 1. On-site supervision from government or third parties.
2. Establishment of intelligent monitor system to achieve real-time monitoring, and
remote warning.
Li et al. (2015) 1. Clarification of specific information, including the amount of waste generated, the
amount of recyclable waste, the design used in the building information model.
Osmani et al. (2008) 1. Regular training on advanced technologies, such as BIM, prefabrication.
2. Establishment of the database for green management design.
(Bohne and Eirik Rudi, 1. Improvement of infrastructure.
2014; Milani, 2005a) 2. Provision of financial incentives, such as subsidy to contractors who apply green
management, and conduction of punishment on violations.
3. Official publication of companies who apply green management.
Wu et al. (2019) 1. Regular industry summit hosted by government or industry associations.
2. Cooperation among research institutes and industries.
3. Support the green management showcase projects.
Chen et al. (2019) 1. Improvement of charging schemes on waste disposal.
2. Clarify responsibilities and obligations of related stakeholders
Chen et al. (2019) 1. Appoint specific governmental departments (Environment protect department) to
lead the C&D waste management.
2. Regular records on waste generation form contractors.
3. Encourage the public involvement to enhance the supervision of violence.

collaboration with Shenzhen government, the data of DW disposed References

in landfill sites, the amount of DW recycled could be collected to
improve the accuracy. Secondly, agent decision rules in the model
could be enhanced. Agents’ decision making can be improved with
machine learning methods through introduction of genetic algo-
rithms, neural networks, and other related methods.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Zhikun Ding: Supervision, Conceptualization, Writing - original
draft, preparation, Writing- Reviewing and Editing. Rongsheng
Liu: Methodology, Validation, Writing - original draft, preparation,
Writing- Reviewing and Editing. Yifei Wang: Methodology, Vali-
dation, Writing - original draft, preparation, Writing- Reviewing
and Editing. Vivian WY. Tam: Supervision, Conceptualization,
Writing - original draft, preparation, Writing- Reviewing and
Editing. Mingxue Ma: Methodology, Writing - original draft,
preparation, Writing- Reviewing and Editing.
Declaration of competing interest
There is no conflict of interest for this paper.
Acknowledgments
This research was conducted with the support of the National
Nature Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71974132), the
Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province, China (Grant
No. 2018A0303130037), Shenzhen Government Nature Science
Foundation (Grant No. JCYJ20190808115809385) and Australian
Research Council (Grant No. DP190100559).
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124897.
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