Topic : Politics

Subtopic : Predicting the : Indian general election, 2019

Will the “13 keys” open the door to the

ABSTRACT :

The 13 Keys to the Parliament of India, is a system for predicting the

popular-vote result of Indian General Elections, 2019, based upon the
theory of pragmatic voting. India’s electorate, according to this theory,
chooses a Prime Minister, not according to events of the campaign, but
according to how well the party in control of the Country has governed it.
If the voters are content with the party in power, it gains four more years
in the Assembly; if not, the challenging party prevails. Thus, the choice of
a Prime Minister does not turn on debates, advertising, speeches,
endorsements, rallies, platforms, promises, or campaign tactics. Rather,
General Elections are primarily referenda on the performance of the
party currently in Power.
Unlike many alternative models, the Keys include no polling data, but
are based on the big picture of how well the party in power and the
country are faring prior to an upcoming election. In addition, the Keys
do not presume that voters are driven by economic concerns alone.
Voters are less narrow-minded and more sophisticated than that; they
decide presidential elections on a wide-ranging assessment of the
performance of incumbent parties, all of which are reflected in one or
more Keys.
The 13 questions ,each with a “yes” or “no” answer. “Yes”
answers favour the incumbent party. If five or fewer answers are “no,”
the incumbent party retains the presidency; if six or more are “no,” the
challenger wins.

References

http://analytics-magazine.org/quantitative-historians-perspective-predicting-the-presidential-
election/

https://pollyvote.com/en/components/index-models/keys-to-the-white-house/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

GROUP –

1) Debeshi Sadhukhan – 18020841100

2) Saurabh Singh –
3) Ajay Rawat
4) Vatsal Chaturvedi
5) Siddharth Gaikward-