Increasing Self-sustainability in Micro Grids using
Load Prioritization and Forecasting Mechanisms
Rafael Silva1, Adriano Ferreira1, Ângela Ferreira1,2, Paulo Leitão1,3
1
Polytechnic Institute of Bragança, Campus Sta Apolónia, Apartado 1134, 5301-857 Bragança, Portugal
{a.ferreira, apf, pleitao}@ipb.pt
2
CISE - Electromechatronic Systems Research Centre, University of Beira Interior, Covilhã, Portugal
3
LIACC - Artificial Intelligence and Computer Science Laboratory, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200- 465 Porto, Portugal
Abstract— Self-sustainability of micro grids is an important
challenge to be addressed, particularly when they operate
disconnected from the utility grid. The multi-agent systems
paradigm allows implementing intelligent and predictive
strategies towards an efficient management of the power flow. In
this paper, an agent-based model is introduced, optimizing the
load demand, through load prioritization, by shedding and re-
scheduling, and using forecasting mechanisms to improve the
micro grids self-sustainability. The designed agent-based model
and strategies were implemented and tested in the Repast agent-
based modelling and simulation framework. Experimental
results show improvements in the self-sustainability of the micro
grid under analysis when operating in critical mode.
Keywords- Micro grids, Multi-agent systems, Self-sustainability.
I. INTRODUCTION
The liberalization of the electricity markets and the
upcoming large-scale integration of distributed energy
production units, usually based on renewable energy sources
(RES), have led to a significant transformation of the electric
power grid topology. In fact, the traditional centralized and
unidirectional producer-consumer relationship was evolved
into a decentralized structure where consumers have an active
role becoming also producers, designated as prosumers. Smart
grids provide intelligent collaboration between prosumers,
creating a secure and economic-sustainable electric power grid
[1], while promoting the integration of distributed RES and
electric vehicles. Smart grids aim to achieve a more sustainable
way of functioning and a better control over the grid, thereby
raising the levels of quality of service and energy efficiency. In
fact, smart grids will improve the system reliability, resilience
and stability and will also provide a new way to manage
Distributed Generation (DG) [2].
Smart grids, as a large-scale network, can be composed of a
network of multiple autonomous but coordinated micro grids.
A micro grid consists of a low-voltage distribution grid
integrating small power generation units, e.g., photovoltaic
panels (PV) and wind micro-turbines (WT), energy storage
devices and controllable loads [3]. A micro-grid can operate in
two distinct modes: interconnected to the low (LV) or medium-
voltage (MV) grid or detached from the utility grid, running in
island mode.
978-1-4799-8389-6/15/$31.00 2015
c IEEE
In island operating mode, it is necessary to manage the
internal energy resources to face the energy demand increasing
the system control complexity. Particularly, one challenge is to
increase the self-sustainability of these electrical networks,
especially when implemented in remote areas or when the
connection to the distribution grid is (or becomes) unavailable,
to avoid fossil fuel generator sets.
The diffusion of micro grids depends on the resolution of a
number of technical issues, mainly related to operation, control
and security problems. Therefore, R&D projects in micro grids
have been focused in integrating new micro sources, specially
RES, in developing strategies and mechanisms to control the
elements of the grid (ensuring the appropriate voltage and
frequency quality levels), and in studying strategies for the
efficient charging/discharging processes and rational utilization
of the storage devices.
The use of information and communication technologies
(ICT) constitutes a crucial piece to build electrical smart grids
by providing intelligence, interconnection, efficiency and
adaptation. In fact, the use of ICT in conventional electrical
infrastructures allows automating its operation and increasing
the level of monitoring and control of the network, as well as
the higher interaction among participants (producers and
consumers) in the operation of the power system. The use of
intelligent energy management systems allows prosumers to
control both the consumption and the production of energy
through micro generation technologies, e.g., photovoltaic
panels or wind micro-turbines. In particular, Multi-agent
systems (MAS) [4-5] seem to be a suitable approach to face the
challenges imposed by smart grids since they provide
flexibility and robustness in the design of such distributed
complex control systems.
The objective of this paper is the development of a MAS
approach that allows the implementation of intelligent control
strategies aiming to increase the self-sustainability of micro
grids, particularly when they operate in islanded mode due to
planned or unplanned events (e.g., maintenance programs or
faults in the utility grid, respectively). The designed agent-
based model considers techniques for the prioritization of
controllable loads and for forecasting of the energy demand
and generation. For these purposes, intelligent strategies are
designed to optimize the efficient management of loads and
resources, including storage devices, and simulated for a case
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study using the Repast (Recursive Porous Agent Simulation
Toolkit) agent-based modelling and simulation platform.
The remaining paper is organized as follows: Section II
discusses the applicability of ICT technologies, and
particularly MAS, to improve the intelligence, efficiency and
self-adaptation of automation functions in electrical grids.
Section III introduces the agent-based model to handle self-
sustained micro grids using load prioritization and forecasting.
Section IV describes the experimental tests and analyses the
results from the simulation of the proposed agent-based
approach using the Repast framework. At last, Section V
rounds up the paper with the conclusions.
II. ICT TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE AUTOMATION OF ELECTRICAL
SMART GRIDS
ICT technologies are crucial to establish the
communication infrastructure and to develop the intelligent and
collaborative control system, allowing to move from the
conventional grid into a smart grid.
A. Automation functions
A smart grid integrates, in a flexible manner, advanced
power electronics components and systems, and distributed
automation functions. The automated control functionalities
able to face the challenges posed by the smart grid
implementation are mainly related with distributed monitoring
and control, self-healing, self-diagnosis, active control,
network reconfiguration, Demand Side Management (DSM)
and Demand Response (DR), and self-optimization.
The distributed monitoring and control is related to the real-
time data acquisition and real-time monitoring and control of
the electrical devices which are disposed along the grid. Self-
healing leads to a more stable and efficient system by
constantly adjusting and recovering from faults in order to
operate at optimum condition [6]. Self-diagnosis uses a wide
range of measurement technology and advanced techniques to
identify possible problem sources through the analysis of
symptoms. Active control aims to ensure the power quality of
the grid, e.g., by addressing issues introduced by the
penetration of DG based on RES, which causes significant
voltage and frequency stability problems [7]. The network
reconfiguration aims to minimize power supply interruptions in
the distribution network due to the capability of remotely re-
route the power by opening/closing switching devices. DSM
and DR functionalities are related with energy consumption
management in response to supply conditions, through the use
of several methods, such as financial incentive (e.g., shifting
non-essential loads to off-peak hours) and real-time forecasting
(e.g., using weather data to estimate the expected production of
RES). Self-optimization aims to determine a grid optimal
operating condition, by sensing and acting on the controllable
variables (e.g. Volt/VAR optimization or losses minimization).
The implementation of these automation functions in smart
grids strongly benefit from using ICT technologies, which
provide the good basis for establishing a communication
infrastructure as well as the intelligent and collaborative
control system that is able to cope with the increasing
complexity, volume of data and non-linearity [8].
1070 2015 IEEE 10th Conference on Industrial Electronics and Applications (ICIEA)
B. Multi-agent systems
A MAS system can be defined as a society of “agents that
represent the objects of a system, capable of interacting to
achieve their individual goals when they have not enough
knowledge and/or skills to achieve individually their
objectives” [5]. Taking advantage of its intrinsic features, such
as modularity, flexibility, robustness, intelligence and
adaptation, MAS offers an alternative way to design complex
systems based on the decentralization of control functions,
being suitable to realize the smart grid concepts.
Several projects using MAS principles and technologies in
smart grids (some of them in micro grids) can be found in the
literature. For instance, EcoGrid uses MAS to implement a
real-time energy market [9] and More Microgrids uses MAS
(and particularly the JADE platform) to implement intelligent
control of micro grid loads, in order to keep the balance
between the energy demand and supply through a selective
shedding of non-priority loads [10]. Intelligent Distributed
Autonomous Power Systems (IDAPS) aims to supply the
critical loads when a failure with the utility grid connection is
detected (through monitoring the grid voltage and frequency)
[11] and Multi-Agent Smart Grid Management System
implements an electronic energy market based on forecasting
the energy generation and demand through historical records
and weather data acquisition [12].
As previously referred, one of the most important
challenges in the micro grids area is the sustainability,
especially when they operate in critical mode, i.e. in islanded
operation. MAS principles can provide significant benefits in
this field since the different players into a micro grid can be
easily modelled as autonomous, intelligent and distributed
objects that interact with each other to achieve their own goals.
III. AGENT-BASED MODEL FOR THE AUTOMATION OF SELF-
SUSTAINED MICRO GRIDS
The increase of self-sustainability in electrical micro grids
can be achieved by using a proper agent-based model that
applies intelligent and forecasting techniques embedded in
distributed agents to manage some automation functions in an
optimized manner.
A. Individual Behaviour of Agents
The proposed agent-based collaborative model considers a
society of agents managing different entities. Particularly, three
types of agents were considered: producer (PA), consumer
(CA) and storage (SA) agents.
Producer agents represent the distributed energy production
units, including those from renewable and conventional
sources. Briefly, they are responsible to manage the power
production by micro generation units, supplying energy to
consumers according to the demand or asking the possibility to
store the energy surplus to storage resources. These agents
must be capable to forecast their future production capabilities,
based on the historical record of energy generation and on the
weather forecasting, in order to achieve more predictable
production management.
 Consumer agents represent electrical loads, e.g., a domestic
consumer or an electric appliance depending on the granularity
level, being responsible to manage the energy demand in the
most economically and energetically advantageous way. In
severe situations, e.g., in case of problems with the connection
to the utility grid, these agents should be capable to prioritize
controllable loads, taking into consideration their pre-defined
categorization, by performing their shedding and/or re-
scheduling.
Storage agents represent the devices able to store energy,
such as batteries (including the ones of electric vehicles), fuel
cells and flywheels, and they are responsible to manage the
charging and supplying processes. The optimization of the
storage operation is ensured by this agent, imposing the desired
boundaries of the storage element state of charge and also
restricting the maximum amount of energy chargeable and
dischargeable in a certain period. It should be noted that micro
storage is crucial for technical and economical operation of
micro grids, by managing the surplus of energy produced by
renewable energy resources at off-peak hours and supply
energy to the grid during on-peak hours, when its price is
usually higher. Micro storage allows increasing the self-
sustainability and reducing the dependency from the utility
grid.
The behaviour of individual agents was specified using the
Petri nets formalism [13] due to its powerful mathematical
background, which ensures a formal way to model, analyse and
validate these complex systems. As example, Fig. 1 illustrates
the Petri net model for the behaviour of the storage agent.
Fig. 1 Petri nets model for the dynamic behaviour of storage agents.
Briefly, the storage agent, after the initialization
procedures, manages continuously the storage of the surplus of
generated energy and the supply of the stored energy. For
instance, when the agent receives a request to supply energy,
represented by the transition t4, it executes a sequence of
actions to verify its availability to provide the requested
energy, mainly analysing if the requested one is lower than the
available stored energy and also if it is compliant with the
maximum power that can be provided in a time period
(maximum dischargeable power). For this purpose, the supply
energy process in a time span obeys to:
2015 IEEE 10th Conference on Industrial Electronics and Applications (ICIEA)
­ Pd , if Pd  min ^Wa 't , Pd max `
®
¯ min ^Pa , Pd max ` , if Pd ! min ^Wa 't , Pd max `
where Pd is the demanded power, Wa is the available energy
stored in the storage resource, and Pdmax is the maximum power
that can be supplied in the required time span.
B. Global System Behaviour
The global system behaviour emerges from the interaction
among the distributed individual agents, combining the
individual knowledge and skills to achieve the global goals.
The adoption of cooperation strategies depends on how the
micro grid is operating: normal mode (i.e. the micro grid is
connected to the utility grid) or critical mode (i.e. islanded
operation).
As illustrated in Fig. 2, the previously identified agents
interact with each other to accomplish their individual goals,
being involved in several different cooperation patterns
according to the main objective. Structural cooperation
mechanisms are related to the interaction between consumers,
producers and storage agents in order to manage the power
flow between them, restricted to load demand and self-
optimization processes (see [8] for more details about these
cooperation patterns).
Fig. 2 Interactions among agents.
For instance, batteries self-optimization strategies to be
implemented may include charging them at off-peak hours
(when the price is lower) or whenever an energy surplus into
the micro grid is detected and discharging them during on-peak
hours. An important issue to be considered is the Nash
equilibrium in the storage process since if all storage agents are
charging at the same time, this may cause some problem to the
utility grid.
C. Intelligent Strategy in Critical Mode
The agent-based model approach described in [8] aims to
handle the self-sustainability in micro grids by introducing
intelligent mechanisms that consider the smart management of
lowest price periods and proper storage strategies. The
operation in critical mode implies that the option to purchase or
sell energy to the utility grid is not anymore available. In this
situation, when DG and storage resources are not able anymore
to provide energy, consumers will have no possibility to satisfy
their needs. Having this in mind, the previous agent-based
model was extended to consider the management of the load
demand to improve the micro-grid self-sustainability,
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implementing intelligent strategies that involve loads
prioritization by shedding and re-scheduling.
When a fault/anomaly is detected leading the micro grid to
operate in critical mode, the consumer agents initiate a series of
cooperative interactions with the other agents, namely producer
and storage agents, to promote the best possible management
of the loads they represent.
1) Estimation of fault parameters: Initially, consumer
agents calculate the expected duration of the anomaly of the
utility grid based on historical data of such events, and using
statistical techniques, namely the moving average of historical
records, as follows:
1 n
Tf ¦T( d i )1, n d d
ni1
where d is the number of data events, T represents the data
value of each event and n is the number of previous data events
considered for the moving average.
Each consumer agent also evaluates the expected
consumption of their critical loads for the estimated time
period of the anomaly, through a process of loads
prioritization. The expected consumption of each consumer
agent during the grid anomaly is obtained through a moving
average of the consumption in the last n events, for the same
period estimated for the fault.
2) Calculation of the expected energy supply: After
estimating the critical load demand for the estimated time
period of the failure, the consumer agents interact with
producer agents to get information about the expected
production for that period. Producer agents estimate the power
generation using statistical techniques to analyse the known
historical data and considering forecasting mechanisms, e.g.,
using forecasting meteorological weather.
In a similar way, consumer agents will request information
about the available stored power to the storage agents, who
return the value depending on the current state of charge of the
storage element, and taking into account the minimum
allowable state of charge. The available energy stored in the
storage resources will be used to complement the energy
produced by the micro sources, in order to fulfil the energy
demand. It should be noted that during the critical mode, it is
acceptable that batteries temporarily overtake the minimum
state of charge.
After getting information of the expected available energy,
consumer agents will interact with each other in order to rectify
the critical load demand, limiting the operation to the restricted
available energy.
3) Prioritization of loads: At this stage, consumer agents
start the process of management and optimization of theirs
controllable loads by applying shedding and re-scheduling
procedures.
The shedding process of a load implies a decrease in the
rated power of operation and/or a decrease in the functioning
time. In this process, the first step is the identification of the
critical loads for the estimated duration of the anomaly and
those that can be shed according to the consumers’
1072 2015 IEEE 10th Conference on Industrial Electronics and Applications (ICIEA)
requirements. The selection of the critical loads depends on the
user profile, their role and the time of the day, week or season.
The load shedding, illustrated in Fig. 3, follows an iterative
process: for each iteration (i.e. time slot) the applied load
shedding corresponds to level 0, i.e., no restrictions are applied
to the operation of the critical loads.
Fig. 3 Algorithm for the shedding process.
When the estimated production is lower than the overall
demand of critical loads, the load shedding will be incremented
and it is verified if the expected energy generation will be
enough to satisfy the demand obtained by the load shedding. In
positive case, the analysis continues to the next iteration,
otherwise the process will be consecutively repeated by adding
more restrictive levels of load shedding. If the load shedding
reaches the maximum level and the expected generated power
is not enough to satisfy the critical load demand, the available
energy in storage elements will be considered by repeating the
previously described procedure from the beginning.
Whenever the expected demand cannot be fulfilled by the
generated energy complemented by the storage elements, even
for the maximum shedding level, an alternative load shedding
process should be started. In this one, rather than being applied
iteratively individual levels of load shedding, the same level of
load shedding will be adopted for all time slots. In this case, the
level of load shedding will be iteratively incremented until the
generated energy fulfils the demand for all time slots or the
maximum level is reached. In this particular case, if some
periods remain with the demand of critical loads exceeding the
generated energy, the available energy of storage elements will
be used.
The re-scheduling of loads involves the re-allocation of
pre-defined loads for a different period of time, preferable after
the recovery from the failure. This approach is suitable to be
used in refrigeration devices, thermal loads or water heating
systems.
IV. EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS
The designed agent-based model, considering the proposed
intelligent strategies, was applied to a micro grid case study
and simulated using the Repast platform.
A. Description of the Case study
The micro grid under analysis, illustrated in Fig. 4, is a
small low-voltage micro grid comprising three consumers
(households), two micro sources and three storage devices.
LV
C1 C2 C3
PV WT
BB1 BB2 EV
Fig. 4 Micro grid architecture, comprising loads, micro sources and storage
devices.
Fig. 5 represents the load profiles in a typical winter day for
the three consumers.
Fig. 5 Load profile for the winter season.
Micro sources are a PV unit with 3,68 kWp located at bus
of consumer 1, and a WT unit with 3 kW of rated power
located at bus of consumer 2. Fig. 6 shows the production
profile of PV and WT units.
Fig. 6 Production profile for the winter season.
The grid also includes two fixed battery banks with rated
capacity of 450 Ah, located at the bus bars of consumers 1 and
2. Consumer 3, despites not having any DG unit or any fixed
battery bank, has the possibility to connect an electric vehicle
to the micro grid, with 66 Ah of rated capacity.
B. Development of the Agent-based Model in Repast
Agent-based modelling (ABM) tools are computational
frameworks suitable to model, experiment and compare
complex systems populated by cooperative agents, reproducing
a diversity of patterns observed in reality. In this work, the
2015 IEEE 10th Conference on Industrial Electronics and Applications (ICIEA)
Repast platform [14] was used to simulate the designed agent-
based model for the micro grid under analysis. In Repast, each
agent is designated as a turtle and operates on a grid of patches
(passive agents) that represents the application world. The
agent-based model, implemented in Repast for the described
micro grid architecture, comprises the following agents: i) 3
consumer agents, each one representing a household, ii) 3
producer agents, namely one representing the PV unit, the
second one the wind unit and the third one the utility grid, and
iii) 3 storage agents, representing the two battery banks and the
electric vehicle.
The implementation of the agent-based model requires the
codification of the individual behaviours of the different agents
and the designed cooperation strategies described in the
previous section. Particularly, the intelligent coordination
mechanisms to regulate the balance between the energy
demand and production, considering micro-storage,
prioritization of loads and prediction capabilities, were
properly implemented.
The forecasting mechanisms embedded in consumer and
producer agents consider the meteorological forecasts data
provided by the web tool “OpenWeatherMap” [15].
C. Results and Discussion
The agent-based model codified in Repast was simulated
under different scenarios, allowing to observe the system
operation according to different alternative control strategies.
The first scenario analyses the micro grid operating in
normal mode using the basic and advanced strategies (e.g.,
storage of energy at time periods with reduced energy costs).
The achieved results are illustrated in TABLE I.
TABLE I. RESULTS FOR THE NORMAL OPERATION MODE
Operating Mode
Energy, W (kWh) Basic, B Advanced, A WB-WA
Demand 20.747,7 20.747,7 0
Provided by Grid 10.571,0 10.988,0 417,0
Provided to Grid 0,6 913,2 912,6
Balance 10.570,4 10.074,6 - 498,8
CostsB-CostsA
Costs (€) 1.560,53 1.298,37 - 262,16
From the obtained results, it is possible to verify that the
integration of the proposed advanced strategies leads to an
increase of the energy exchanges with the utility grid, resulting
in a positive balance of 498,8 kWh. This positive balance
implies a reduction of 17% in energy costs. Note that for the
calculation of the costs it was considered a two-rate tariff:
normal tariff with 0,1785 €/kWh and off-peak tariff with
0,0946 €/kWh.
The second scenario explores the micro grid operating in
critical mode (considering a failure period with an average
duration of 5 hours), for three different control strategies
(basic, advanced and a third one, including forecasting
mechanisms).
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 From the implementation of the basic strategy, Fig. 7
depicts the evolution of the supplied power to the consumers,
for a simulated fault in the utility grid occurring between 18h
and 23h of the second day (represented by the second dashed
area). The system sustainability is limited to the first 3 h, where
energy demand is accomplished through storage devices till
they achieve the discharge state, from which critical demand of
Consumer 3 cannot be fulfilled (the available energy in the
micro grid is provided only from the wind turbine, has depicted
in Fig. 6).
Fig. 7 Evolution of power provided to consumers during the critical mode for
the basic mode.
The implementation of the advanced strategy allows a
better management of the available power based on the demand
control mechanisms, leading to an improvement of the
sustainability of the micro grid (from 3h to 5h). This strategy
integrates intelligent approaches, restricting the energy
supplied to the loads in the early time intervals until the agents
predict that the remaining available energy is enough for the
remaining part of the islanding period.
Finally, adding forecasting mechanisms to the advanced
strategy, the restriction in the load demand is higher because a
more realistic estimation of production is elaborated taking into
consideration the weather meteorological forecasts for the
failure period. In this case, the imposed load shedding favours
the overall operation of the micro grid by storing more energy.
The results obtained for critical operation mode, under the
implementation of the different strategies, namely
sustainability, total demand and the remaining stored energy,
are synthesized in TABLE II.
TABLE II. RESULTS FOR THE CRITICAL OPERATION MODE
Remaining
Sustainability Demand
Strategy stored energy
(h) (kWh)
(kWh)
Basic 3 13,19 0 Conference and Exposition (PSCE’09), pp. 1-8, 2009.
Advanced 5 9,18 12,34
Advanced + Forecasting 5 5,60 13,58
From these results, it should be noted that the model, under
advanced and forecasting strategies, should be improved in
order to explore better the stored energy, given that the
remaining one is considerable.
1074 2015 IEEE 10th Conference on Industrial Electronics and Applications (ICIEA)
V. CONCLUSIONS
Micro grids operating in island mode require an efficient
management of their internal energy resources to face the
energy demand. A particular challenge is to manage their self-
sustainability, especially in remote areas or when the
connection to the utility grid is unavailable.
The proposed agent-based model considers the loads
prioritization, based on shedding and re-scheduling procedures,
complemented with forecasting mechanisms, to increase the
self-sustainability of micro grids, particularly operating in
island mode. The agent-based model, incorporating these
intelligent mechanisms, was simulated in the Repast platform
and the experimental results are promising regarding the self-
sustainability.
Future work is related to the use of more sophisticated
learning techniques to implement the prioritization and
forecasting mechanisms, and the application of the agent-based
model to more complex micro grids.
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