Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia

Vicerrectoría Académica y de Investigación

Syllabus of the Course Theory of Decisions, Code 212066

Activity guide and evaluation rubric - Task 1 – Pre knowledge

1. Description of the activity

Activity type: Individual

Time of assessment: Initial
Maximum activity score: 25 points
The activity starts on: Activity ends on: Tuesday,
Wednesday, August 26, 2020 September 8, 2020
This activity is expected to achieve the following learning
outcomes:

1. Recognize the methods of solving decision problems in different

environments, risk, uncertainty and Markov.

The activity consists of:

In the Learning environment, consult the bibliographic reference Sharma,

J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 347-378),
New Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition of the Unit 1.
Decision models under risks, to review the topic related to probabilities,
graphical solution of equations and operations with matrices.

The student in a first exercise must remember thematic of probabilities to

identify the conditions of the events that will later allow you to make
decisions with the use of different models applied in later units of the
course.

In a second exercise they must understand from a graph of solutions that

satisfy the restrictions and conditions of the problem and their behavior
according to events that determine the game success of certain players
conditioned by others that intervene in the system.

In a third exercise we will remember elementary operations of matrices,

such as multiplication of vector by a matrix or matrices by matrices in
order to facilitate the development of finite or infinite state decision
problems with application of Markov labels.

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Exercise 1. Probabilities of a given event:

Suppose you have three dice which are not altered, this assumes fair play
and the odds of any one of their heads coming out are equal. When rolling
the three dice, you must determine that:

1. Exit number 6 on all dice.

2. The sum of the three dice adds up to 7.

Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations:

Using the algebraic graphical method, determine the cut-off point and
solution that satisfies the following systems of equations:

1. Y = -3X + 5
2. Y = -3X + 2

For values of 1 and 0 of the variable x in each of the equations. That is,
replacing in each equation first if x takes value of 1 and if it takes the value
of zero to graph its lines.

Exercise 3. Matrix operations:

The Markov chains use probabilities of previous states, from there that the
matrix multiplication is very important to solve this type of problems.
Given the following matrices of size (n * m) or (m * m) solve the product
of them.
0.3 0.4 0.3
1. A= [0.1 0.3 0.6] B= 0.5 0.3 0.2
0.3 0.3 0.4

0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2

2. A= 0.1 0.4 0.5 B= 0.1 0.3 0.6
0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5

In the previous exercises, solve the matrix operation (A * B)

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Finally, individually, evidence in a xls (Excel) or pdf format document the
report to be delivered, present it in the general forum of the course
(Learning environment) to demonstrate its development and deliver it in
the Evaluation environment for its qualification.

For the development of the activity, keep in mind that:

In the Learning environment, you should: Consult and review the agenda
of the course, consult the reference proposed in the required educational
resources of Unit 1. Decision models under risks, present in the general
forum of the course, the contributions and progress on development and
solving the problems raised above.

In the Evaluation environment, you must: Deliver the report individually

according to its specifications and availability scheduled in the Course
Agenda.

Individual evidence:
The individual evidences to deliver are:

Document in xls (Excel) or pdf format, entitled Solution of recognition

problems, which must contain the following information and presentation:

Cover page. Identifying the activity, the title, the author, the tutor, the
course, the institution, the school, the program and the year.

Content:

Exercise 1. Probability exercises.

a. Answer to question 1 of the problem.

b. Answer to question 2 of the problem.

Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations.

a. Request the system of equations for equalization to 0 and 1.

b. Graph the equations on the Cartesian plane.
c. Find the solution of the system of equations.

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Exercise 3. Operations with matrices.

a. Solve according to the matrix solution methods in Exercise 3.1.

b. Solve the matrix solution methods in Exercise 3.2.

Bibliography (with APA standard).

File Extension: xls or pdf

Identification: Task 1. Name of the student.

Group evidence:
Group evidence is not required in this activity.

2. General guidelines for the preparation of the evidence to be

delivered.

For individually produced evidence, consider the following guidelines:

1. You must present the progress of the activity in the general forum
of the course during the time allocated for the activity.

2. Before delivering the requested product, you must check that it

meets all the requirements indicated in this activity guide.

Please note that all individual or group written products must comply with
the spelling standards and the defined presentation conditions. Regarding
the use of references, consider that the product of this activity must
comply with APA standards. In any case, comply with the reference
standards and avoid academic plagiarism, for this you can support
yourself by reviewing your written products using the Turnitin tool found
on the virtual campus.

Consider that in agreement 029 of December 13, 2013, article 99, the
following are considered as offenses that violate the academic order,
among others: literal e) “Plagiarism, that is, presenting as your own
authorship the all or part of a work, work, document or invention made
by another person. It also implies the use of missing citations or
references, or proposing citations where there is no coincidence between
it and the reference ”and liberal f)“ Reproducing, or copying for profit,
educational materials or results of research products, which have
intellectual rights reserved for the University ”

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The academic sanctions that the student will face are the following:
a) In cases of academic fraud demonstrated in the academic work or
respective evaluation, the grade to be imposed will be zero points without
prejudice to the corresponding disciplinary sanction.
b) In cases related to plagiarism demonstrated in academic work,
whatever its nature, the grade to be imposed will be zero points, without
prejudice to the corresponding disciplinary sanction.

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 3. Evaluation Rubric Format

Activity type: Individual

Time of assessment: Initial
The maximum possible score is 25 points
High level: The student develops and presents all the
First evaluation activities proposed in the general forum of the course.
criterion: If your work is at this level you can get between 4
points and 5 points
Use the general
forum of the course Medium Level: The student develops and presents some
to develop and activities proposed in the general forum of the course.
present Task 1. If your work is at this level you can get between 2
points and 3 points
This criterion
represents 5 points Low level: The student does not develop and present the
out of the total 25 activities proposed in the general forum of the course.
points of the If your work is at this level you can get between 0
activity. points and 1 points
High level: The student correctly applies the solution
Second evaluation
methods according to the probability theory in the
criterion:
development and solution of the problem posed, correctly
determining all the requested aspects.
Recognizes the
If your work is at this level you can get between 4
theories of
points and 5 points
probability,
combinations, and
Medium Level: The student applies some solution
permutations that
methods according to the probability theory in the
lead you to solve a
development and solution of the problem posed, partially
problem as part of
determining the requested aspects.
the course
If your work is at this level you can get between 2
preservers.
points and 3 points
This criterion
Low level: The student does not correctly apply any of
represents 5 points
the solution methods in the development and solution of
out of the total 25
the probability problem.
points of the
If your work is at this level you can get between 0
activity.
points and 1 points

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 High level: The student correctly analyzes the graphical
Third evaluation
method in the development and solution of the equation
criterion:
problem, correctly determining all the requested aspects.
If your work is at this level you can get between 4
Recognizes the
points and 5 points
approach and
solution of a system
Medium Level: The student partially analyzes the graphic
of equations
method in the development and solution of the equation
according to the
problem, partially determining the requested aspects.
conditions set as part
If your work is at this level you can get between 2
of the preschool
points and 3 points
activity of the course.
This criterion
Low level: The student does not apply the graphical
represents 5 points
method in the development and solution of the problem of
out of the total 25
equations.
points of the
If your work is at this level you can get between 0
activity.
points and 1 points

Fourth evaluation
High level: The student correctly applies the matrix
criteria:
solution methods, correctly determining all the requested
aspects.
Recognizes the
If your work is at this level you can get between 4
methods of solution
points and 5 points
in matrices,
according to
Medium Level: The student partially applies the matrix
multiplication vector
solution methods, determining some of the requested
- matrix and matrix
aspects.
as part of the
If your work is at this level you can get between 2
presaberes of the
points and 3 points
course.
This criterion
Low level: The student does not apply the matrix solution
represents 5 points
methods in the development and solution of the problem.
out of the total 25
If your work is at this level you can get between 0
points of the
points and 1 points
activity.

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 High level: The student presents the report with the
development and correct solution of the problems posed,
with excellent writing, spelling, citations and bibliographic
references in accordance with the APA standard in its
content.
Fifth evaluation
If your work is at this level you can get between 4
criterion:
points and 5 points
Report Solving
Medium Level: The student presents the report with the
Probability, Equation,
development and partial solution of the problems posed,
and Matrix Problems.
with writing, spelling, citations and / or bibliographic
references in accordance with the APA standard in its
This criterion
content.
represents 5 points
If your work is at this level you can get between 2
out of the total 25
points and 3 points
points of the
activity.
Low level: The student does not present the report with
the development and solution of the problems posed.
If your work is at this level you can get between 0
points and 1 points