Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Fundamentals of Hypothesis
Testing
population mean
Example: The mean monthly cell phone bill
of this city is μ = $42
H0 : μ 3 H0 : X 3
Claim: the
population
mean age is 50.
(Null Hypothesis:
Population
H0: μ = 50 )
Now select a
random sample
Is X 20 likely if μ = 50?
If not likely, Suppose
the sample
REJECT mean age Sample
Null Hypothesis is 20: X = 20
© 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc
Level of Significance,
H0: μ ≥ 3
H1: μ < 3
Lower-tail test 0
© 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc
Hypothesis Tests for the Mean
Hypothesis
Tests for
Known Unknown
(Z test) (t test)
σKnown
Known
(Z test)
The test statistic is:
X μ
Z
σ
n
© 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc
Critical Value
Approach to Testing
For a two-tail test for the mean, σ known:
Convert sample statistic ( X ) to test statistic (Z
statistic )
Determine the critical Z values for a specified
level of significance from a table or
computer
Decision Rule: If the test statistic falls in the
rejection region, reject H0 ; otherwise do not
reject H0
© 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc
Two-Tail Tests
H0: μ = 3
There are two
H1: μ 3
cutoff values
(critical values),
defining the
regions of /2 /2
rejection
3 X
Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0
-Z 0 +Z Z
Lower Upper
critical critical
value value
© 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc
6 Steps in
Hypothesis Testing
1. State the null hypothesis, H0 and the
alternative hypothesis, H1
2. Choose the level of significance, , and the
sample size, n
3. Determine the appropriate test statistic and
sampling distribution
4. Determine the critical values that divide the
rejection and nonrejection regions
= 0.05/2 = 0.05/2
= 0.05/2 = 0.05/2
X = 2.84 is translated
to a Z score of Z = -2.0
/2 = 0.025 /2 = 0.025
P(Z 2.0) 0.0228
0.0228 0.0228
P(Z 2.0) 0.0228
p-value
= 0.0228 + 0.0228 = 0.0456
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
-2.0 2.0
© 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc
p-Value Example
(continued)
Compare the p-value with
If p-value < , reject H0
If p-value , do not reject H0
2.6832 ≤ μ ≤ 2.9968
μ X
Critical value
H0: μ ≤ 3
There is only one
critical value, since H1: μ > 3
the rejection area is
in only one tail
Critical value
= 0.10
Standardized Normal
What is Z given = 0.10? Distribution Table (Portion)
0.90 0.10
Z .07 .08 .09
= 0.10
1.1 .8790 .8810 .8830
0.90
1.2 .8980 .8997 .9015
z 0 1.28
1.3 .9147 .9162 .9177
Critical Value
= 1.28
Xμ 53.1 52
Z 0.88
σ 10
n 64
© 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc
Example: Decision
(continued)
Reach a decision and interpret the result:
Reject H0
= 0.10
Reject H0 P( X 53.1)
= 0.10
53.1 52.0
P Z
0 10/ 64
P(Z 0.88) 1 0.8106
Do not reject H0 Reject H0
1.28
Z = 0.88
0.1894
Type I Error
Reject a true null hypothesis
Considered a serious type of error
Type II Error
Fail to reject a false null hypothesis
β when
β when σ
β when n