PROJECT PLAN

Analysis of the global pandemic :

COVID -19 in the U.S.

Submitted by : Team 2
Rakshit Varma, Aviral Sahu and Parag Pise
Introduction
COVID-19 outbreak was first reported in Wuhan, China and has spread to
more than 200 countries. WHO declared COVID-19 as a Public Health
Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020. Naturally, a
rising infectious disease involves fast spreading, endangering the health
of large numbers of people, and thus requires immediate actions to prevent
the disease at the community level.

The virus has been observed to have an exponential trend and grows through
multiple transition stages. The current COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented,
but the global response draws on the lessons learned from other disease
outbreaks over the past several decades.

According to the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering,
as of July 8, 2020, there have been over 11.8 million confirmed cases of
COVID-19 and 544,949 deaths worldwide – but these numbers are still
growing steadily. Globally, the confirmed case fatality rate is above 5 percent
– that is, one in every 20 people with a confirmed positive COVID-19 test has
died of the disease.

The project aims to track and visualize the impact of COVID-19 in the
different states of the U.S. overtime. The focus is on how the virus has spread
over time and what severely affected states can and should do to control the
massive spread of virus.

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Problems to be
Addressed
Assessing the data collected through multiple sources and gathering relevant
information to recommend key strategies for states in the U.S. that have been
severely affected by the pandemic.

The project aims to analyse the impact of corona virus outbreak in the U.S.
and provide strategic ways to curb the rapid expanse of the virus. A
breakdown of the daily update in total number of cases, deaths and recoveries
is to be observed and the rate of change in daily situation will be analysed.
Lastly, the insights obtained will be transformed into recommendations
backed by data for controlling the outbreak.

Goals/Objectives
The project covers the following basic outlines and delves further into the
data to identify patterns in the data :

 What are the key attributes / Identify trends in number of cases,

metrics available in the given
datasets?
Identify the worst and least hit
states in the month of March,
April, May, and June.
Which states are likely to be
the worst-hit in the month of
August and Why?
deaths and recoveries in different
states of the U.S.
What should be done to minimize
the number of cases in the month
of August in the worst-hit states?
Derive key strategic insights to
help worst hit states to tackle the
outbreak.

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Scope of Work
This project entails research,
collecting data, cleaning data,
analysis and recommending
strategies to control the
widespread of COVID-19.
There might be anomalies in the
data which will be reduced to a
minimum in the data preparation
part. The data is majorly obtained
from the data repository for the
2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual
Dashboard operated by the Johns
Hopkins University Center for
Systems Science and Engineering
(JHU CSSE).
The study is based on the U.S. data
and recommendations developed
are purely based on the pattern that
has been observed till now. There
are many other factors that are
responsible for the expansion of the
outbreak which are beyond the
scope of the project.
To develop projections for August
we will be analysing the growth rate
among different states and
assuming identical conditions
among all states such as restricted 
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movements, following of social
distancing norms, uniform
regulatory measures. The real
situation might differ from this
scenario which can cause slight bias
in the results. 
It is possible that new data sources
may be referred to during the
project which will be described
whenever used and analysis may be
done apart from the goals
introduced earlier to get better
insights and results.
A more detailed analysis or
extension of the project is feasible
to be studied upon where state wise
policy actions regarding coronavirus
can be attributed to the projections
for future.
Assessing the situation in states that
have been able to tackle the
outbreak and developing
recommendations for the worst hit
states based on data from the
former.
4
Timetable
DESCRIPTION OF WORK START DATE END DATE

PHASE 1 8 July 2020 10 July 2020

Data Profiling
Data Preparation

PHASE 2 11 July 2020 12 July 2020

Data Analysis

PHASE 3 13 July 2020 14 July 2020

Recommendation

PHASE 1 :
Identifying the key attributes, looking for missing values and data anomalies.
Profiling the data collected and summarizing key information obtained.

PHASE 2 :
Aggregating the numbers for different states, analyzing the daily and monthly 
trend, observing the states which have been the least and most affected
during the time period. Identifying the rate of increment in different states,
considering the number of cases with respect to the population of the state,
analyzing the information and predicting the case for the upcoming month.

PHASE 3 : Singling out the differences in the adopted strategies for different
states, deriving optimal strategies from states that have been successful in
curbing the expansion of the virus. Presenting the results and
recommendations.

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Our Next 5 Prediction for
future
Steps: Identifying the spread of
virus in different states for
The following action steps would be the upcoming month
followed for the project :

5 Results and
1 Data Key
Collection Strategies
Gathering relevant data
Derive strategic insights to
from different sources
tackle the outbreak in the
worst hit states.

2 Data
Preparation
Removing anomalies in the
collected data and
transforming it for analysis.

3 Data
Analysis
Observing the spread of
virus in different states
over different months

4 Data
Visualization
Reporting insights in a
visually apppealing format

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