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POT LIFE PREDICTION OF ALUMINIUM SODERBERG CELLS

Article  in  TMS Light Metals · February 2001

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 POT LIFE PREDICTION OF ALUMINIUM SODERBERG CELLS
M. A. Doheim (1), S. M. El-Raghy
(1) Faculty of Engineering, Assiut University, Dept of Petroleum, Mining &Metallurgy
(2) Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Dept of Petroleum, Mining &Metallurgy
(3) The Aluminium Company of Egypt (Egyptalum), Nage-Hammadi, Egypt, Research Engineer
Abstract
Factors affecting pot life have been identified as: thermal
design, construction materials, construction practices, and
cathode shell design, preheating, start-up and general operation
of the cell. The actual pot life statistics records at Aluminium
Company of Egypt (Soderberg cells), for the period 1980 till
2000 are analyzed. Though the average Soderberg pot life over
this period was 58 months, yet; there were cells with few only
a months’ life. More than one cell over 100 months.
An empirical correlation for pot life prediction was
developed using the three-parameter Weibull cumulative
distribution. The statistical model was tested for different carbon
lining suppliers. Good agreement was found between the model
and actual life after excluding the early and accidental failures.
This paper indicates the relative weight of parameters to be
considered for longer pot life.
Introduction
The aluminium reduction cells in operation in the
Aluminium Company of Egypt (Egyptalum) are of Soderberg
type. The line current of a cell is 155 kA, and the annual
production is about 180,000 tonnes. The present plant is arranged
in ten potrooms (five pot lines); each pot room consists of 46
cells, in an end-to-end arrangement.
In the aluminium industry, the pot life is an economic
value. Measures are always taken to increase potlife and to avoid
cell failure if possible. Efficient cathode design and proper
operation are essential to achieve maximum pot life[1-5]. Hale[4]
illustrated that ‘good’ or ‘world class’ pot life is relative. Each
plant has an ultimate pot life that can be achieved. The average
pot life ranges from 1000-3650 days, but with considerable
variation among the smelters and even among individual cells of
the same design and construction. Some pot lines today may
reach an average pot life close to 2500 days, while some cells
(2)
, and Mohamed M. Ali (3)
can be in operation for more than 4000 days [1]. Factors
influencing pot lives have been discussed elsewhere [6].
Many techniques have been used in cathode life estimation
such as normal, lognormal, binomial and two or three parameters
Weibull function. Three parameters Weibull function is
frequently used for life prediction due to its versatility resulting
from its parameters, particularly its shape parameter.
In this paper, a statistical analysis for failed cells during the
last twenty years was made. Also an empirical correlation for
cell life prediction based on three parameters Weibull method
was developed.
Analysis of the failure data
Many data were collected from the capital repair
management of Egyptalum such as the number and life of failed
cells, lining sources, ... etc. These data were arranged and many
kinds of statistics were made. The average pot life of Egyptalum
cells during the period from 1980 to 2000 is shown in Table 1.
This table also includes the number of failed cells in each year
[7]. The decrease in pot life in years 1983/84 and1984/85 was
mostly due to the following: after 36 months of start-up of potline
number 4, some of the cells were terminated for relining and
maintenance although they were working properly. This was
according to the imposed schedule and regulation of the
production sector of the company. The increase in the number of
pots failed in years1990/91 &1994/95 was mostly due to the use
of unsuitable materials source in lining of some cells [7]. The
reasons for lower numbers of failed cells in the last four years
were due to the lower number of working cells from 453 to 361
in this period.
During the period from 1980 to 2000, Egyptalum purchased
the cathode carbon blocks from eleven different sources. The
available properties of cathode carbon blocks from four sources
are shown in Table 2.
 Table 1- Average real pot life and number of failed cells during the period from 1980 to 2000.

S. Year Number of Average pot life S. Year Number of Average pot life
failed cells (Months) failed cells (Months)
1 80/81 83* 53.1 11 90/91 102** 54.7
2 81/82 75* 58.3 12 91/92 107** 59.9
3 82/83 67* 53.6 13 92/93 88** 61.2
4 83/84 75* 46.4 14 93/94 93** 64.1
5 84/85 92* 48.3 15 94/95 101** 63.4
6 85/86 83* 52.5 16 95/96 75** 58.8
7 86/87 82* 53.4 17 96/97 49*** 55.6
8 87/88 94* 57.6 18 97/98 46*** 61.5
9 88/89 81* 60.3 19 98/99 51*** 61.4
10 89/90 81* 60.7 20 99/2000 60*** 70.9
* Total number of working cells = 460. ** Total number of working cells = 453.
*** Total number of working cells = 361.

Table 2- Cathode carbon materials properties for different sources.

Sources A C D G
Property
Apparent. density, gm/cm3 1.53 1.60 1.52 1.53
Specific electrical resistivity, µ ohm.m 45 37.8 40 45
Compressive strength, kg/cm2 275 275 - 300
Total porosity, % 20 10 20 22
Apparent porosity, % 16 14 16 19
Thermal conductivity, W/m. K 6-10 8 6 22
Ash content, % 5 3.4 3 5
Graphite content, % 20 26 43 30

The average pot life and numbers of failed cells for
different sources (A, B, C, D, E, G, H, I, J, K and L) of cathode
blocks that have been used in the period from 1980 to 2000 are
shown in Figure 1. The letter F represents the cells lined from
two or three cathode carbon sources in each cell The average
pot life was found to be the highest with sources K, D, C, A, B
and H respectively, while sources E, G, J and I gave the lowest
pot life. Sources C, D and A gave the largest numbers of failed
cells, while sources L, I, E,J, G and H gave the smallest numbers
of failed cells.
These cells are shutdown at different ages. The percentage
of failed cells and average pot life during the period years 1980-
2000 are illustrated in Figures 2 and 3. Four groups were
selected, according to its pot lives, as follows: first group (lower
than 1 year), second group (more than one year and lower than
42 month {project value}), third group (more than 42 month and
lower than the maximum average pot life during the first 15
years {65 months}) and fourth group, more than 65 month.
Figure 2 indicates the following:
1- The percentage of failed cells during the first year from start-
up is low except for the years 1989 to 1992. The probable
reasons for this are the use of unsuitable materials in the bottom
carbon lining and use of a new method for cell preheating with
this material. Also the reason for some increasing in percentage
of the failed cells in years1996-1997 and 1998-1999 is due to
use of unsuitable materials in the bottom carbon lining [7].
2- The percentage of failed cells of the second group decreased
with years due to the efforts achieved by worker’s experience.
During the last four years the shutdown cells program was
changed, so some changes take place during this period.
3- The percentage of failed cells of third group shows a
decrease, but on the other hand the percentage of failed cells of
fourth group increases annually.
Figure 3 indicates that the average pot life of failed cells for
the different groups were calculated as 5.2, 29.7, 54.1 and 77.5
months respectively.
Using an improved lining material, decreasing tolerance
between bottom carbon blocks and improving the operational
procedures may obtain the improvement in cell life.
Development of an empirical correlation for pot life
prediction
A popular method for cell life prediction is the three-parameter
Weibull techniques [3,8-10]. The real benefit of using the three
parameter Weibull distribution is to obtain fitting quality, the
ability to predict failures and the average and the median failure
age of a group based on a limited number of early failures from
that group. The advantage of using this method is described correlates the cell ages and cumulative percent failure according
by Brown [8] as follows: the calculations are easy adaptable to to equation (1). A location parameter for the calculations in this
a personal computer. This enables a convenient routine work will be chosen of 150 days less than the youngest cell in
calculation of predicted average failure ages based on the latest the group. The use of the three-parameter Weibull function was
data updated monthly, progressively censored data can be used. made for the failed cells during the years from 1989/90 to
That is, not all cells have to be started at the same time and some 1994/95. The comparison of actual failure data with predicted
operating ages may be younger than the failure ages, versatility data during this period is illustrated in Figures 4,5 for two cases.
of the Weibull shape parameter allows the data to be skewed to The first case includes all cells failed (569 cells), and the second
the left or right of the normal distribution and the third case (532 cells) excluding cells below one year. The shape
parameter of the Weibull distribution, the location parameter parameter values were used to indicate the state of failed cells
gives increased flexibility in fitting data over the two parameter whether young or old -aged. Shape parameter of case 1 (2.77) is
Weibull distribution. The three-parameter Weibull cumulative indicative of early failure problems not observed in case 2 (with
distribution is given as: shape parameter equals 4.15). Also the relationship between
actual and predicted failure pattern based on all cells failed (101)
é t − θ βù and excluding cells less than one year (96) in years 1994/95 are
æ ö ú shown in Figures 6 & 7 respectively.
F(t) =1-expê−ç ÷ (1)
ê α ø ú
è The results of Figures 4-7 show that a good agreement
ë û between predicted and actual failure pattern exists when we
The effects of these parameters on the failure distribution exclude failures less than one year. We may conclude that in
future work failures less than one year should be excluded.
are described by Brown [53]. An increase in β tends to flatten
the distribution as well as increase its mean value. When the Weibull parameters were fitted to complete failure data for
value of β equals one, the Weibull is simple exponential. For β four case studies (different material suppliers of carbon lining).
The groups A, B, C and D consisted of 34, 34, 62 and 24 cells
equals two, early failure distribution. When β is between three respectively, which were started at different dates. Figures 8-11
and four, the resultant shape approximates the normal show the relationship between the actual and predicted failure
distribution. The location parameter has the effect of shifting the pattern for these groups. The failure rate decreases with the older
origin of the distribution. For long-lived cells, a group of cells cells when equal 2.54, 3.39 and 3.8, but the failure rate increases
can operate for several hundred days, then fail within a relatively with the older cells when equals 5.57. The shape parameter of
short time period. Typing the origin to the start-up data group A is indicative of early failure but this problem is not
unnecessarily flattens the distribution. This causes the shape observed in groups B, C & D. The agreement between the actual
parameter to account for the leading skew. and predicted failure pattern is not always good in these cases.
The statistical data and Weibull parameters of the complete
The three parameters values can be estimated by using the failure data for these groups are summarized in Table 3.
individual failure ages to date and the remaining operating ages
for a group of cells [8]. Very good results are obtainable by From this table and Figures 8-11, we conclude that the
choosing a reasonable estimate of the location parameter [8]. cathode carbon material from sources D for group A is not
The value of the shape parameter, β , is determined by solving suitable because of the early failure problem. This is clear from
equation (2) using an iterative trial and error technique for β . the low value of shape parameter. The properties of supplier D
have been improved for failed cells in 1994/95. This means that
the material properties are not adequate to obtain good pot life
1 but the other items affecting pot life (operation and design) are
β= (2) also included. Similar behaviour was observed for the average
n+m
å w β lnw n
å ln Yi
and median of failed cells. The results show an increase in the
i i average pot life of group D than other groups. This gives us a
i=1 − i=1 significant economic impact upon reline costs
n+m n
å w β
i Life prediction
i =1
The value of the scale parameter, α , is determined by
Based on the operating and failed cells data available at the
equation (3) as follows: -
time, the Weibull parameters were used to predict the failure
− 1
pattern. Figure 12 shows the predicted failure pattern when
æ ö β
ç ÷ 30,50 and 90 % of cells had failed during 1994/95 as compared
n (3) with actual failure data. The figure shows that the predicted
α = çç n + m ÷
÷ failure improves with the addition of a few more failures. Table
ç å w β ÷ 4 gives the predicted average failure ages based on different
è i= 1 i ø percentages of failure. The predicted average, median of failed
cells and shape parameter show an improvement as the percent
Application of the equations failure increases.

A computer program[6] calculates the values of the shape The prediction ability of the average failed cells is
and scale parameters according to equations (2) and (3), then necessary to compare the economics and effects of design
changes, construction materials, and changes in operating 3 - M. Sorlie and H.A. Oye, “ Cathodes in Aluminium
conditions. At the same time the prediction of the number of Electrolysis “, Aluminium- Verlag GmbH , Dusseldorf (1994).
failed cells in the future is very useful for inventory and cost 4 - W.R. Hale,” Improving the useful life of aluminium industry
planning purposes. cathodes “, JOM, 41(11), PP. 20-25 (1989).
5 - M. Sorlie and H.A. Oye, “ Cathodes in Aluminium
Conclusion Electrolysis,“ Aluminium- Verlag GmbH, Dusseldorf (1989).
6- Mohamed M. Ali, “ Study of some factors affecting
An empirical equation for cell life prediction was aluminium cell life particularly thermal design aspects”, M.Sc.,
developed, based on materials from different suppliers and Assiut University, 1997.
various design and operating aspects. This should be of great 7 - Egyptalum data and annual reports, 1980-2000.
help in Egyptalum economics. A complete record for each cell 8 - C.A.Brown,“ Using the Three Parameter Weibull distribution
from its start-up to shutdown is essentially required. for aluminium reduction cell life prediction “, Light Metals, pp.
705-710 (1985).
Acknowledgments 9 - A. Weatherly,“ Cathode service life estimation through
maximum likelihood techniques” , Light Metals, pp. 711-718
The authors would like to thank Eng. Zaki A. Bassiouny (1985).
the Chairman of Egyptalum for support during this study. 10 - C. Chatfield, “ Statistics for technology. A course in applied
Also,the authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of statistics “, John Wiley & Sons: New York (1987).
heads of the various sectors of Egyptalum in data collection and
fruitful discussions. This paper is extracted from the M.Sc. Symbols
Thesis in Metallurgical Engineering prepared by one of the
authors (Mohamed M. Ali) to Assiut University. F (t) Fraction of units failing by time t. _
w Individual failure or operating ages. Days
References
y Individual failure age Days
1 - K. Grjotheim and H. Kvande,” Introduction to Aluminium _
α Weibull scale parameter.
Electrolysis “, Aluminium-Verlag GmbH, Dusseldorf (1993).
_
2 - W.E. Haupin, “ Principles of aluminium electrolysis“, The β Weibull shape parameter.
international course on process metallurgy of aluminium, _
θ Weibull location parameter.
Trondheim, Chapter 2 , pp. 1-16 ( 1995 ) .

100
Predicted data
Cumulative failure percent, %

90
Actual data
80
70
60 β=2.77
50 α=1250
θ=−141
40
30
20
10
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Time units, days

Figure 4: Actual vs. predicted failure pattern based on complete failure data in year’s 1989/90 to 1994/95.

5
 8 500
70 Average potlife Failed Cells

Numbers of failed cells

Average pot life, Months 400
60
50 300
40
30 200

20
100
10
0 0

A B C D E F G H I J K L

Material source
Figure 1: Average pot life and numbers of failed cells for different sources of bottom carbon blocks in the years
1980-2000.

90

80 < 12 months
Percentage of failed cells, %

> 12 , < 42 months

70 > 42 , < 65 months
60 > 65 months

50

40

30

20

10

0
80- 81 81- 82 82- 83 83- 84 84- 85 85- 86 86- 87 87- 88 88- 89 89- 90 90- 91 91- 92 92- 93 93- 94 94- 95 95- 96 96- 97 97- 98 98- 99 99-
2000

Years
Figure 2: Percentage of failed cells during the period 1980-2000 for different pot life groups.

100
90 < 12 months >12 , < 42 months
> 42 , < 65 months > 65 months
80
Average potlife, Months

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
80 -81 81 -82 82 -83 83 -84 84 -85 85 -86 86 -87 87 -88 88 -89 89 -90 90 -91 91 -92 92 -93 93 -94 94 -95 95 -96 96 -97 97 -98 98 -99 99 -
2000

Years
Figure 3 : Average potlife of failed cells during the period 1980-2000 for different pot life groups.
 100
Predicted data
90

Cumulative failure percent, %

Actual data
80
70
β=4.15
60 α=1605
50 θ=222
40
30
20
10
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Time units, days
Figure 5: Actual vs. predicted failure pattern based on complete failure data in year’s 1989/90 to
1994/95 excluding failures less than one years.

100
Predicted-data
90
Cumulative failure percent, %

Acutual-data
80
70
60
50 β=3.33
40 α=1524
30 θ=−108
20
10
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Time units, days

Figure 6: Actual vs. predicted failure pattern based on complete failure data (101 cells) in year 1994/95.

100
Predicted-data
90
Cumulative failure percent, %

Acutual-data
80
70
β=4.98
60
α=1757
50
θ=459
40
30
20
10
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Time units, days

Figure 7: Actual vs. predicted failure pattern based on complete failure data(96 cells) in year
1994/95 with excluding failures less than one years.
 Table 3 - Statistical data on failed cells for different material sources .
Group/source A/D B/C C/C D/D
Parameter year 1991/92 1991-92 1994-95 1994-95
Shape parameter 2.54 3.39 3.8 5.57
Scale parameter 1291 1378 1358 1659
Location parameter 249 360 459 1200
Total No. of cells failed 34 34 24 62
Average potlife of failed cells, day 1774 1906 1825 2027
Median of cells failed 1967 1858 1785 2026
Standard Deviation 774 657 557 376
Correlation Coefficient 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.82

100
Cumulative failure percent, %

Predicted-data
90
Acutual-data
80
70
60
50 β=2.54
40 α=1291
30 θ=249
20
10
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Time unite, days

Figure 8: Predicted vs. actual failure data for group A (34 cells).

100
Predicted data
90
Cumulative failure percent, %

Acutal data
80
70
60
50
40
β=3.39
α=1378
30
θ=360
20
10
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Time units, days
Figure 9: Predicted vs. actual failure data for group B (34 cells).
100
Predicted data
Cumulative failure percent, %

90
Actual data
80
70
60
50
β=3.8
40
α=1358
30
θ=459
20
10
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Time units, days

Figure 10: Predicted vs. actual failure data for group C (24 cells).
 100
Predicted data

Cumulative failure percent, %

90
Actual data
80
70
60
50
40
30 β=5.57
α=1659
20
θ=1200
10
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

Time units, days

Figure 11: Predicted vs. actual failure data for group D (62 cells).

100
30%
Cumulative failure percent, %

90 50%
90%
80 Actual
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

Time units, days

Figure 12: Comparison between cumulative failure distribution at different percentages of failed cells with
actual failure data in years 1994/95 excluding cells below than one years

Table 4 - Predicted average pot life at different failure levels for failed cells at year 1994/95.
Failure percentage 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Parameter
Shape parameter 4.48 4.62 4.67 4.77 4.87 4.91 5 5.03 5.04
Scale parameter 1470 1535 1515 1545 1589 1616 1604 1646 1626
Location parameter 300 338 374 410 458 468 468 468 468
Working cells 87 77 68 58 48 39 29 20 10
Total No. of cells failed 9 19 28 38 48 57 67 76 86
Average of failure life of cells, day 1856 1890 1917 1944 1970 1983 2007 2016 2023
Median of cells failed 1798 1820 1872 1919 1950 1966 2009 2030 2043
Standard Deviation 465 463 460 458 455 455 455 455 457
Correlation Coefficient 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96

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