ref2018.

d121317a 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Report Annual Energy Outlook 2018

Scenario ref2018 Reference case
Datekey d121317a
Release Date February 2018

13. Natural Gas Supply, Disposition, and Prices

(trillion cubic feet, unless otherwise noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Production
Dry Gas Production 1/ 26.94 27.10 28.96 31.19 32.66 33.09
Supplemental Natural Gas 2/ 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

Net Imports 0.69 -0.09 -0.73 -2.10 -3.55 -3.83

Pipeline 3/ 0.79 0.50 0.31 -0.23 -0.59 -0.75
Liquefied Natural Gas -0.10 -0.59 -1.03 -1.87 -2.96 -3.08

Total Supply 27.69 27.06 28.29 29.15 29.17 29.31

Consumption by Sector 27.50 26.68 28.18 29.03 29.03 29.16

Residential 4.35 4.38 4.74 4.62 4.60 4.59
Commercial 3.11 3.15 3.32 3.27 3.26 3.24
Industrial 4/ 9.33 9.45 9.81 10.20 10.66 10.86
Other Industrial 4/ 7.72 7.77 7.98 8.19 8.48 8.64
Lease and Plant Fuel 5/ 1.59 1.61 1.72 1.82 1.87 1.90
Fuel Used to Liquefy Gas for Export 6/ 0.02 0.07 0.11 0.19 0.30 0.32
Natural Gas-to-Liquids Heat and Power 7/ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Natural Gas to Liquids Production 8/ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Transportation 0.75 0.69 0.73 0.76 0.77 0.81
Motor Vehicles, Trains, and Ships 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.15
Pipeline and Distribution Fuel 0.68 0.61 0.64 0.66 0.66 0.66
Electric Power 9/ 9.97 9.02 9.57 10.18 9.75 9.66

Discrepancy 10/ 0.18 0.38 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15

Natural Gas Prices

Natural Gas Spot Price at Henry Hub

 (2017 dollars per million Btu) 2.57 3.05 3.06 3.40 3.69 3.66

Delivered Prices
(2017 dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Residential 10.30 11.17 10.77 11.19 11.47 11.59
Commercial 7.50 8.11 7.96 8.33 8.69 8.88
Industrial 11/ 3.60 4.10 4.16 4.50 4.76 4.72
Transportation 12/ 14.81 14.99 14.67 14.62 14.64 13.99
Electric Power 7/ 3.03 3.58 3.69 4.05 4.30 4.24
Average 13/ 5.04 5.73 5.74 6.02 6.30 6.31
Natural Gas Spot Price at Henry Hub
(nominal dollars per million Btu) 2.53 3.05 3.13 3.55 3.96 4.02

Delivered Prices
(nominal dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Residential 10.12 11.17 11.01 11.70 12.32 12.74
Commercial 7.37 8.11 8.14 8.72 9.33 9.77
Industrial 11/ 3.54 4.10 4.26 4.71 5.11 5.19
Transportation 12/ 14.55 14.99 15.00 15.29 15.72 15.39
Electric Power 7/ 2.98 3.58 3.78 4.24 4.61 4.66
Average 13/ 4.96 5.73 5.86 6.29 6.76 6.94

1/ Marketed production (wet) minus extraction losses.

2/ Synthetic natural gas, propane air, coke oven gas, refinery gas, biomass gas, air injected for Btu stabilization, and manufactured
gas commingled and distributed with natural gas.
3/ Natural gas imported from Canada and Mexico.
4/ Includes energy for combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems.
5/ Represents natural gas used in well, field, and lease operations, and in natural gas processing plant machinery.
6/ Fuel used in facilities that liquefy natural gas for export.
7/ Includes any natural gas used in the process of converting natural gas to liquid fuel that is not actually converted.
8/ Includes any natural gas converted into liquid fuel.
9/ Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status.
10/ Balancing item. Natural gas lost as a result of converting flow data measured at varying temperatures and pressures to a
standard temperature and pressure and the merger of different data reporting systems which vary in scope, format, definition, and
respondent type. In addition, 2016 values include net storage injections.
11/ Excludes use for lease and plant fuel and fuel used for liquefaction in export facilities.
12/ Natural gas used as fuel in motor vehicles, trains, and ships. Price includes estimated motor vehicle fuel taxes
and estimated dispensing costs or charges.
13/ Weighted average prices. Weights used are the sectoral consumption values excluding lease, plant, pipeline and
distribution fuel, and fuel used for liquefaction in export facilities.
- - = Not applicable.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016
are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports.
 Sources: 2016 supply values; lease, plant, and pipeline fuel consumption; and residential and commercial
delivered prices: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Natural Gas Annual 2016. 2016 industrial
delivered prices derived from: EIA, Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, 2002-2014. Other 2016
consumption based on: EIA, Monthly Energy Review, September 2017. 2016 natural gas spot price at Henry Hub: Thomson
Reuters. 2016 electric power prices derived from: EIA, Electric Power Monthly, July 2017, Table 4.13.B.
2016 transportation sector delivered prices derived from: U.S. Department of Energy, Clean Cities Alternative
Fuel Price Report. 2017: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2017 and EIA, AEO2018 National Energy Modeling
System run ref2018.d121317a. Projections: EIA, AEO2018 National Energy Modeling System run ref2018.d121317a.
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

33.84 34.61 35.18 35.79 36.24 36.82 37.35 37.66 37.83 38.00 38.12
0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

-4.27 -4.75 -5.43 -5.89 -6.25 -6.59 -6.79 -6.93 -6.99 -7.01 -7.03
-0.99 -1.07 -1.28 -1.34 -1.43 -1.50 -1.58 -1.65 -1.71 -1.73 -1.75
-3.28 -3.68 -4.15 -4.55 -4.81 -5.08 -5.21 -5.28 -5.28 -5.28 -5.28

29.63 29.91 29.81 29.96 30.05 30.29 30.61 30.79 30.89 31.05 31.14

29.47 29.74 29.63 29.78 29.87 30.11 30.43 30.62 30.72 30.87 30.96
4.59 4.59 4.58 4.58 4.57 4.57 4.57 4.57 4.57 4.57 4.57
3.23 3.22 3.22 3.22 3.23 3.24 3.26 3.28 3.30 3.33 3.35
11.03 11.18 11.23 11.29 11.37 11.47 11.58 11.65 11.72 11.78 11.86
8.76 8.86 8.84 8.84 8.87 8.93 9.00 9.06 9.12 9.17 9.25
1.93 1.95 1.97 1.99 2.01 2.03 2.05 2.06 2.06 2.07 2.07
0.34 0.38 0.42 0.46 0.49 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.83 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.99
0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.29 0.31
0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68
9.79 9.90 9.74 9.82 9.81 9.92 10.09 10.17 10.17 10.22 10.20

0.16 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18
3.69 3.83 3.94 4.07 4.12 4.17 4.19 4.26 4.26 4.27 4.27

11.69 11.94 12.30 12.46 12.49 12.57 12.58 12.74 12.74 12.78 12.82
9.08 9.41 9.69 9.81 9.82 9.88 9.86 9.99 9.96 9.98 10.00
4.75 4.88 4.97 5.10 5.14 5.19 5.19 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.26
13.81 13.76 14.41 14.32 14.12 13.96 13.79 13.80 13.65 13.53 13.44
4.28 4.40 4.50 4.63 4.67 4.71 4.72 4.78 4.78 4.77 4.79
6.36 6.52 6.70 6.83 6.86 6.91 6.90 6.98 6.98 6.98 7.00

4.16 4.42 4.66 4.93 5.10 5.28 5.42 5.62 5.75 5.88 6.02

13.17 13.79 14.54 15.08 15.47 15.92 16.27 16.83 17.19 17.62 18.07
10.23 10.86 11.45 11.88 12.16 12.51 12.75 13.20 13.45 13.76 14.09
5.35 5.64 5.88 6.18 6.36 6.57 6.71 6.94 7.09 7.24 7.42
15.55 15.89 17.04 17.34 17.48 17.68 17.84 18.23 18.43 18.66 18.94
4.82 5.08 5.32 5.60 5.78 5.97 6.10 6.32 6.45 6.58 6.75
7.17 7.53 7.92 8.27 8.50 8.75 8.92 9.22 9.41 9.62 9.86
2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043

2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043

38.25 38.55 38.72 39.02 39.38 39.57 39.82 40.15 40.40 40.72 40.99
0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

-7.06 -7.14 -7.19 -7.29 -7.40 -7.43 -7.49 -7.57 -7.60 -7.66 -7.72
-1.78 -1.86 -1.91 -2.01 -2.12 -2.15 -2.21 -2.29 -2.32 -2.38 -2.44
-5.28 -5.28 -5.28 -5.28 -5.28 -5.28 -5.28 -5.28 -5.28 -5.28 -5.28

31.25 31.46 31.59 31.79 32.04 32.20 32.38 32.64 32.87 33.12 33.33

31.07 31.29 31.42 31.60 31.86 32.03 32.21 32.47 32.70 32.95 33.16
4.56 4.55 4.55 4.54 4.53 4.53 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52
3.38 3.41 3.44 3.46 3.49 3.51 3.54 3.58 3.61 3.64 3.67
11.93 12.01 12.09 12.15 12.26 12.37 12.46 12.55 12.63 12.70 12.77
9.31 9.38 9.46 9.51 9.61 9.71 9.79 9.86 9.93 9.99 10.05
2.08 2.09 2.09 2.10 2.12 2.13 2.14 2.16 2.17 2.18 2.18
0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.20
0.32 0.34 0.35 0.37 0.39 0.41 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.50
0.68 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70
10.20 10.30 10.30 10.39 10.49 10.52 10.57 10.69 10.78 10.92 11.00

0.19 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
4.27 4.27 4.26 4.35 4.36 4.43 4.47 4.50 4.53 4.58 4.62

12.86 12.90 12.94 13.05 13.12 13.19 13.24 13.28 13.34 13.45 13.48
10.02 10.03 10.04 10.13 10.17 10.22 10.25 10.27 10.31 10.40 10.42
5.26 5.27 5.26 5.36 5.37 5.44 5.48 5.51 5.54 5.61 5.65
13.35 13.27 13.20 13.22 13.19 13.20 13.20 13.18 13.19 13.23 13.23
4.77 4.78 4.77 4.88 4.88 4.95 5.00 5.03 5.06 5.12 5.16
7.00 7.01 7.01 7.11 7.12 7.18 7.22 7.24 7.28 7.34 7.37

6.15 6.29 6.41 6.70 6.87 7.14 7.38 7.59 7.82 8.10 8.36

18.53 19.00 19.49 20.11 20.67 21.26 21.83 22.40 23.04 23.77 24.39
14.43 14.78 15.13 15.61 16.03 16.47 16.90 17.32 17.81 18.38 18.85
7.58 7.76 7.93 8.26 8.47 8.77 9.04 9.29 9.57 9.91 10.22
19.23 19.55 19.88 20.38 20.80 21.28 21.77 22.24 22.77 23.38 23.95
6.88 7.04 7.19 7.52 7.70 7.98 8.25 8.49 8.73 9.04 9.34
10.09 10.32 10.56 10.95 11.22 11.57 11.91 12.22 12.57 12.97 13.34
2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050

2017-
2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2050

41.26 41.46 41.76 42.08 42.40 42.60 42.98 1.4%

0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.2%

-7.90 -7.95 -8.07 -8.18 -8.27 -8.31 -8.40 14.7%

-2.62 -2.67 -2.79 -2.90 -2.99 -3.03 -3.12 --
-5.28 -5.28 -5.28 -5.28 -5.28 -5.28 -5.28 6.9%

33.41 33.57 33.75 33.95 34.19 34.35 34.64 0.8%

33.25 33.40 33.59 33.79 34.03 34.18 34.48 0.8%

4.52 4.52 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.54 0.1%
3.71 3.75 3.79 3.83 3.87 3.91 3.94 0.7%
12.83 12.90 12.94 13.00 13.06 13.12 13.18 1.0%
10.11 10.17 10.21 10.25 10.31 10.36 10.41 0.9%
2.19 2.19 2.19 2.21 2.22 2.22 2.23 1.0%
0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 6.5%
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 --
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 --
1.22 1.25 1.27 1.29 1.32 1.35 1.38 2.1%
0.52 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.61 0.63 0.66 6.6%
0.70 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.5%
10.96 10.98 11.06 11.14 11.25 11.28 11.44 0.7%

0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 --

4.67 4.71 4.75 4.79 4.87 4.94 5.01 1.5%

13.52 13.61 13.68 13.75 13.81 13.91 13.99 0.7%

10.45 10.53 10.58 10.64 10.69 10.77 10.84 0.9%
5.70 5.75 5.80 5.85 5.94 6.01 6.09 1.2%
13.26 13.29 13.33 13.37 13.45 13.51 13.59 -0.3%
5.21 5.25 5.30 5.35 5.44 5.51 5.60 1.4%
7.43 7.49 7.54 7.60 7.67 7.75 7.83 0.9%

8.65 8.94 9.24 9.56 9.97 10.34 10.78 3.9%

25.07 25.85 26.62 27.42 28.24 29.14 30.06 3.0%

19.37 19.99 20.59 21.21 21.85 22.57 23.29 3.2%
10.56 10.92 11.29 11.67 12.14 12.59 13.10 3.6%
24.57 25.25 25.94 26.66 27.49 28.31 29.21 2.0%
9.67 9.97 10.31 10.67 11.13 11.54 12.04 3.7%
13.78 14.22 14.67 15.15 15.69 16.24 16.83 3.3%