Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Innovations
Liuren Wu
1 Lévy processes
2 Lévy characteristics
3 Examples
4 Generation
5 Evidence
6 Jump design
8 Economic implications
9 Conclusion
Innovation distribution
↔ characteristic exponent ψ(u)
↔ Lévy triplet (µ, σ, π(x))
R1 2
I Constraint:
0
x π(x)dx < ∞.
I “Tractable:” if the integral can be carried out explicitly.
Under Q, µ = r − q.
The characteristic exponent of the convexity adjusted Lévy process
(Xt − κX (1)t) is: ψX (u) + iuκX (1) = 12 u 2 σ 2 + iu 21 σ 2 = 21 σ 2 (u 2 + iu).
Other examples:
I The normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) process of Barndorff-Nielsen (1998)
I The generalized hyperbolic process (Eberlein, Keller, Prause (1998))
I The Meixner process (Schoutens (2003))
I ...
Bottom line:
I All tractable in terms of analytical characteristic exponents ψ(u).
I We can use FFT to generate the density function of the innovation (for
model estimation).
I We can also use FFT to compute option values.
Starting with Bachelier (1900), diffusion processes have been the most
widely used class of stochastic processes used to describe the evolution of
asset prices over time.
The sample paths of diffusion processes show infinite variation.
I If one tried to accurately draw a diffusion sample path, your pen would
run out of ink before one second had elapsed.
I If we model an asset price process using a diffusion, then over any finite
time interval, there is zero probability that the price does not change.
I Furthermore, the absolute values of price changes over a day (or any
other period) sum to infinity.
In even the most active markets, one can find small enough time periods
over which there is positive probability of no price change.
Furthermore, if we sum the absolute values of price changes over a day, we
get a finite number.
The failure of diffusions to describe the microscopic behavior of sample paths
would not be troubling if financial theory took a more macroscopic view.
The problem is that the foundations of standard financial theories such as
Black Scholes and the intertemporal CAPM rest on the ability of investors
to continuously rebalance their portfolios.
Nobody seriously believes that anyone can trade continuously and even if
they could, no one seriously believes that trade sizes can be kept so small
that price impact is infinitesimal.
At present, there are two types of clocks used to model business time:
1 Continuous clocks have the property that business time is always
strictly increasing over calendar time.
2 Clocks based on increasing jump processes have staircase like paths.
The first type of clock can be used to describe stochastic volatility models
— next chapter.
The second type of clock has the capability of slowing a diffusion process
down to market speeds.
I A subordinator is a pure jump increasing process with stationary
independent increments.
0.7
0.65
Short−term smile
Implied Volatility
0.6
0.55
0.45
0.2
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
−3 −2.5 −2 −1.5 −1 −0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Moneyness= ln(K/F
√
σ τ
)
JPYUSD GBPUSD
14 9.8
9.6
13.5
9.4
Average implied volatility
12.5 9
8.8
12
8.6
11.5
8.4
11 8.2
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Put delta Put delta
−0.4 40
35
−0.6
30
−0.8
Skewness
Kurtosis
25
−1
20
−1.2
15
−1.4
10
−1.6 5
−1.8 0
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Time Aggregation, Days Time Aggregation, Days
Q
To break CLT under Q, set γ = β− so that β− = 0.
Reconciling P with Q: Investors charge maximum allowed market price on
down jumps.
Negative skew
CDS spread
4
−1
02 03 04 05 06
Carr & Wu, Stock Options and Credit Default Swaps: A Joint Framework for Valuation and Estimation, wp.
Different types of jumps affect option pricing at both short and long
maturities.
I Implied volatility smiles at very short maturities can only be
accommodated by a jump component.
I Implied volatility skews at very long maturities ask for a jump process
that generates infinite variance.
I Credit risk exposure may also help explain the long-term skew on single
name stock options.
The presence of jumps of random sizes creates value for the options markets
...