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Application of ANOVA method to study solar


energy for hydrogen production

M.S. Hossain a,*, N.A. Rahim a,b, M.M. Aman c, Jeyraj Selvaraj a,**
a
UM Power Energy Dedicated Advanced Center (UMPEDAC), Level 4, Wisma R&D, University of Malaya, 59990
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
b
Renewable Energy Research Group, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
c
Department of Electrical Engineering, NED University of Engineering and Technology, 75270, Karachi Pakistan

article info abstract

Article history: This study is directed to specifically clear on the data's parametric effect on the hydrogen
Received 7 February 2019 production utilizing the sun based energy through the water electrolysis. The Analysis of
Received in revised form Variance (ANOVA) technique is used to check and verify on the potentials of other factual
19 March 2019 demonstrative devices with respect to the real and anticipated quality, the reaction in the
Accepted 5 April 2019 middle of residuals and the anticipated 3-D surface and shape plot investigation. The
Available online 3 May 2019 database of the created model was created in view of the profound study to be carried out.
A factual model was produced and an exploratory acceptance of the investigation of
Keywords: polynomials was set up by applying the Response Surface Methodology (RSM). The factual
Statistical model investigation of the informative parameters and the resulting reactions demonstrated that
ANOVA method the proposed model and the analytical results would appropriately indicate an anticipated
Hydrogen production predominant fit.
Solar energy © 2019 Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

as poly-crystalline, mono-crystalline, copper indium disulfide


Introduction thin-film, amorphous silicon, heterojunction incorporating
thin film etc. to do outdoor experiment to produce energy and
The ever progressive demands for renewable energies and supply to the grid around 20 kW per annual in Nkrumah
their applications are increasing by leaps and bounds in the University Science and Technology, Ghana [4,5]. Solar PV,
scientific search for the alternative clean renewable and wind turbine and energy storage batteries based systems are
abundant everlasting supply of energies for global use in the producing energy and supply of the smart microgrid using
near and distant future in which the solar energy is the biggest Non-dominated Sorting-based Hybrid Cuckoo Search Opti-
available source of the abundantly free energy supply in the mization (NSHCSO) technology [6]. Solar PV energy used to
renewable-energy sector [1]. To increase the reliability of more produce hydrogen can tremendously improve and greatly
sufficient energy supply, combined energy sources are used. contribute to our energy sector for which the principal mate-
Nowadays, facilities of research area interests have been rial of this production is water which, incidentally, is freely
vigorously set up to work with hybrid renewable clean energy available [7,8], hence, the need to use the proper equipment to
sources [2,3]. Researchers are using different solar cells, such produce hydrogen which is a strong molecule and is a very

* Corresponding author.
** Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: shouquat64@gmail.com, engi.shouquat@um.edu.my (M.S. Hossain), jeyraj@um.edu.my (J. Selvaraj).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2019.04.028
0360-3199/© 2019 Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
14572 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 4 4 ( 2 0 1 9 ) 1 4 5 7 1 e1 4 5 7 9

hydrogen system which was called the proton exchange


Nomenclature membrane (PEM) fuel cell [13]. They investigated the output
voltage and current by utilizing the acquired model for
A ideal factor of PV cell
different loads of energy. Another solar hydrogen simulation
ANOVA analysis of variance
was done by Abdulhamid El-sharif (2013) [14]. He constructed a
CV coefficients of variation
model utilizing the IPSEpro software for a solar hydrogen
DgFmodel degree of freedom of model
generation system effect on a commercial scale. The main
DgFresidual degree of freedom of residual
components of his studies are renewed hydrogen system,
F-value F-statistic
climate and energy data. Another researcher (Jinsheng et al.,
I current (A)
2013) presented a geometric model for the hydrogen storage
ID diode current (A)
system [15]. His model was based on the Matlab and compu-
IL photovoltaic generated current (A)
tational fluid dynamics (CFD) software. He analyzed the effect
I0 diode saturation current (A)
of variable specific heat and mass transfer and the fluid flow in
ISH shunt leakage current (A)
a cryo-adsorptive hydrogen storage system. Storing hydrogen
K constant (Boltzmann's)
as a fuel or gas can then be used to generate electricity for grid
Mn2RG mean of square regression
connection, power generation for car which all are the available
Mn2RD mean of square residual
alternatives as renewable hydrogen power application [16].
Mn2er Mean square error
In this investigation, it is clear that the concept of hydrogen
n number of experiments
production is made available through the use of these two
Nm3 normal meter cube
variables, namely time and PV power in which this statistical
P model parameters
model would help to identify the necessary crucial steps in the
p-value the p-value
experimental setup. This kind of model is mostly related to
q electronic charge (c)
chemical engineering which involves kinetics, physical prop-
R2 determination coefficient
erties, mass and energy balances in processing the differential
R2adj adjusted coefficient of determination
algebraic equations, and the algebraic steady-state equations
RS cell series resistance (U)
for both the dynamic and the steady state processes [17,18]. It
SRG sum of squares
is also quite excitingly challenging to generate the precise
SRD sum of residual
mathematical models to perform all the necessary operations
SD standard deviation
to represent a suitable design aspect for consideration in such
ƩS2 sum of squares
a complex polymerization process [19].
ƩS2model sum of squares of model
Another feasible model ANOVA approach is executed by
ƩS2resideal sum of squares of residual
statistical techniques that can be applied by interested re-
TC cells working temperature (K)
searchers for the purpose of predicting the optimum condition
V solar cell terminal voltage (V)
of chemical processes to identify the highest glow value of a
desired product [20]. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a com-
suitable option to be used as a fuel to generate a reliable bined of statistical model, which is associated estimated
source of energy for almost every application that fossil fuel procedures used to analyze the differences among group
can generate [9]. Furthermore, hydrogen can also be converted means in a sample. Basically, ANOVA method is used to
into other types of energy more efficiently than all the fossil compares a continued response across levels of a factor [21].
fuels put together. In fact, the response surface methodology (RSM) is a func-
Recently, many studies have been conducted to use tional statistical tool for determining the optimum processing
renewable energy as an alternative source of hydrogen pro- parametric calibration from a laboratory scale to an industrial
duction. For example; Ghenai et al. (2018), did a technico- scale as pointed out by various workers in the solar energy
economic analysis of off grid solar PV/Fuel cell energy supply sphere. The design of experiment (DoE) is considered as very
system for the residential community. Authors designed the vital for a fruitful experimental study [22]. As a result, some
hybrid system to meet the energy demand of 4500 kWh/day in classical factors and central responses from the tools can
150 houses and found 52% energy coming from the solar PV and produce a composite unique design that can be utilized to
48% from the fuel cell, which is economically low cost of energy investigate the interactions of process factors depending on
of 145 $/MWh with zero carbon dioxide emission [10]. Kha- the polynomial models obtained by this method.
lilnejad and Riahy (2014) used a hybrid wind and solar energy It is to be intrinsically noted that the objective of this work
for hydrogen production. The study investigated the perfor- is predominantly to investigate the production of hydrogen
mance of maximum hydrogen production and storage using an relationship between the PV power and the time involved as
advanced alkaline electrolyzer. The study showed that the well as to find out the optimum process parameters for the
wind turbine was most effective for hydrogen production due hydrogen polymerization in a solar photovoltaic process using
to the availability of free wind resources [2,3,11]. Ghridi et al. the RSM modeling and the Central Composite Design (CCD)
(2013), has been introduced a technique for producing technique. This statistical model will contain all the basic
hydrogen from the solar PV/proton exchange membrane (PEM) models for producing hydrogen by using any solar photovol-
electrolyzer system, wherein the total annual production of taic panel or solar hybrid system, hence, it will be more ad-
hydrogen is estimated around 20e29 m3 by using 60 W solar PV vantageous to predict the result before the experiment is
modules [12]. Zehar and Muhsin, (2013), modeled a solar performed, thus, in one way or another, saving on time and
i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 4 4 ( 2 0 1 9 ) 1 4 5 7 1 e1 4 5 7 9 14573

cost should not be overlooked. We can also compare the


actual and predicted values from the results.

Experimental overview

This is an example of a 2-D model for the solar PV power using


the water electrolyzer system which is as shown in Fig. 1. The
specifications of the PV module maximum components are:
voltage is 24.5 V, power is 200 Watts and the current is 8.16 A.
The PV module is a 50-call design specification for large and
small PV systems. The total area selected for the PV module is
1.406 m2. The range of the power and radiation data is from Fig. 2 e Equivalent circuit diagram of PV model.
low to high because this is the period to measure the inter-
phase of the water electrolysis points. The experimental
period is from 24 h to 8,760 h, which means from one day to
V is the solar cell terminal voltage (V).
356 days. The PV modules circuit diagram and all the related
RS is the cell series resistance (U).
equations are not affected. The PV power output range is
A is the ideal factor of PV cell.
500e6000 W and the voltage is from 61.28 to 735.30 V. The
k is the constant (Boltzmann's) and.
solar radiation is calculated on a 200 W/m2 as the minimum
TC is the cells working temperature (K)
value and 1200 W/m2 as the maximum value The PV panel
average slope from the three sites, namely, Novi Sad city,
The shunt leakage current can be obtained by the following
Belgrade city and national park Kopaonik, was found to be
expression:
above 20 [16].
To determine the equivalent circuit through the PV cell and V þ IRs
ISH ¼ (3)
electrolyzer system. The PV cell has one diode model, as RSH
shown in Fig. 2. This is a simple way to depict, based on the An Electrolyzer is a machine that uses electrical energy and
Kirchhoff's current law. The voltage and current generated water to generate hydrogen and oxygen through the process
from the cell are directly proportional to the solar irradiation. of electrolysis. This hydrogen so obtained is stored in a tank at
The purposed characteristic of the cell by diode is given by the a high pressure. The PV panel positive terminal is connected
following expression [2]: across the anode, and the negative terminal is connected to
I ¼ IL  ID  ISH (1) the cathode after which, water (H2O) particles will be sepa-
rated into hydrogen (H2) and Oxygen (O2) as shows in Fig. 3.
The total (output) current is equal to the difference of the
photovoltaic generated current IL, from the diode current ID
and the shunt leakage current ISH. ID and is defined by this Eq.
(2):
 qðVþIRs Þ 
ID ¼ I0 e AkTc  1 (2)

where I0 is the diode saturation current (A)

q is the electronic charge (c)

Fig. 1 e 2-D diagram of the PV panel and Electrolyzer.


Fig. 3 e Water electrolysis system [23].
14574 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 4 4 ( 2 0 1 9 ) 1 4 5 7 1 e1 4 5 7 9

Design and optimization of the model


SD
CV ¼  100 (8)
In this study, the statistical model of the solar PV water mean
electrolysis can produce the required results by using the
Stat-Ease software, where the CCD will help to analyze the If this coefficient of variation (CV) result does not exceed
interactive processes between the variables and to point 10% of any model, the model will be reproducible.
out the optimum process condition [24]. After computing
the experimental data of the total the PV power and the
radiation with the design procedures, an idealistic model Result and discussion
has been completed according to the RSM methods. During
this material time, the polynomial function has been Statement of statistical models
adjusted with the statistical data at the initial stage after
which the factor values will then identify the optimization The model variables are used to consider the experimental
of the real objective formula. The exactness of the poly- importance of the dispute between the time (A) and the PV
nomial model will be determined by the coefficient values power (B). The main variable will always be the PV power used
of R2 and R2adj as given by Eqs. (4)e(6) respectively in the water electrolysis system during the experimental
[21,25e29]: period, because this system uses a combination of the PV
Eqs. (4) and (5): power and the hydrogen electrolyzer. Table 1 shows the range
of the low and the high coded values (1, þ1), the actual low
P
S2residual and high values, and the type of experiment (Numeric) as well
R2 ¼ 1  P P (4)
S2model þ S2residual as the unit used.
Depending on the CCD, the experiment runs about 13
 P number of times. Table 2 shows, the factor's values and re-
S2residual D F
R adj ¼ 1   P 2
2
P 
g residual
 (5) sponses of the hydrogen represented in Nm3. The polynomial
Smodel þ S2residual Dg Fmodel þ Dg Fresidual method of equation has been used for plotting the three
The composite model of the system has now been created dimensional (3-D) surface and the two-dimensional (2-D)
by analyzing the response of the Nm3 of the hydrogen con- contours to identify individual factors, their points of inter-
version per mass given by the following Eq. (6). section, reactions and responses respectively. This model
means square error (Mn2er) value is 0.0075 which is very
X
k X
k k1 X
X k
negligible and which also shows that the model accuracy
YResponse 1 ¼ b þ b i ci þ bii c2i þ bij ci cj þ ε (6)
i¼1 i¼1 i¼1 j¼iþ1
justifies the taking of data points to obtain the model symbi-
otic data as in Eq. (9).
In Eq. (6), Y is the total response vector and taking the The result of response 1 showed that the hydrogen pro-
model into the Linear, two-factor, Quadratic and Cubic ductions ranged from 20 to 75 Nm3 in which the maximum
interactive effects, where ε is the error vector. These exper- response of 75 Nm3 has been found on the condition that A is
imental data, design, evaluation statistical model and 8760 h and B is 6000 Watts. It is very clear that the experi-
various equations have been carried out by the regression mental parameters for the hydrogen electrolysis system can
and graphical analyses. The ideal preparatory condition has achieve an optimum process condition.
evaluated the three-dimensional plot surface and regression
analysis of the independent variables with each dependent Fitting test
variable. These independent variables are level controlled by
p-value. At the same time it signifies the interaction intensity The model fitting analysis uses the ANOVA method, where the
between all the independent variables interface for small p- F-value and p-value analyses have been utilized. Table 3
value where it points out the higher level of significance of shows the results of using the Linear, 2FI (2-Factor Interac-
the related variable. The second-order models have been tion), Quadratic and Cubic models as well as the final results of
tested by using the ANOVA and F-value methods analyses using the Sum of Squares, Linear (A, B), 2FI (AB, BA), Quadratic
[21]. This F-value equation can be obtained by the following (A2, B2) and Cubic (A3, B3) models. It is seen that the linear and
expression: cubic models are the best for this significance and experi-
mental design. The small p-value (Prob > F) indicates (as in
Mn2RG
F¼ (7) Table 4) that the selected model can improve its performance
Mn2RD
significantly.
To find out the particular points of F-values, it is The large F-values also indicate that the small variance of
necessary to complete the residual and regression steps the experiment and the lesser number may be less to be
with the help of the application of the Degree of Freedom harmonic [30,31]. The ratio between the mean square and the
(DOF) based on the F distribution method from which sum of square as shown in Table 4 is called F-value. The
regression coefficients have been displaced with the help of mathematical model shows that when the response of
the p-values. hydrogen is established, the F-values will be distributed nor-
This model error will represent the variation which in- mally [21]. The proposed model quadratic equation is impor-
dicates the coefficient as formulated by this Eq. (8): tant for identifying the independent variations which are
i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 4 4 ( 2 0 1 9 ) 1 4 5 7 1 e1 4 5 7 9 14575

Table 1 e Coded levels for experimental design.


Factor Name Units Type Low Coded High Coded Low Actual High Actual
A Time hr Numeric 1.000 1.000 24 8760
B PV power W Numeric 1.000 1.000 500 6000

accidental. Another coefficient value of R2adj is 0.9962, which


Table 2 e CCD experimental design and results of the
shows a relationship with the independent variables. The
response surface.
coefficient of variation (CV) in this model is very low at 1.88%,
Run Factor A Factor B Response 1 which indicates a high performance and excellent model from
Time hr PV Power Hydrogen
the experimental results. The model results are shown in
Watt Nm3
Table 4 indicating the evidence of all linear and quadratic
1 4392 3250 45
terms due to their small p-values.
2 1056.3 3250 59
The polynomial equation is used with the help of multiple
3 1785.28 3250 44
4 24 500 20 regression and squares methods which are a second order
5 4392 3250 46.5 equation. From the study of the variation data, the following
6 6392 7139.09 70.5 equation can be created:
7 4392 639.087 40.5
8 3392 2250 39.8 Hydrogen (Y) ¼ (40.24  A)-(19.55  B) þ (4.23  A  B) þ (17.37
9 5392 4250 47
 A2)- (19.35  B2) þ (25.93  A2  B) þ (51.46  A  B2)-(77.44
10 4392 3250 45
11 8760 500 40
 A3) þ (6.87  B3) þ 45.21 (9)
12 8760 6000 75
13 24 6000 38 where Y is the response of hydrogen production in Nm3 and
A, B are independent coded variations.

tested to fit. This fitted model outcome and numerous results Ideography for the model quality
are shown in Table 4. For more appropriate model, the R-
Squared (R2), the R-Squared adj (R2adj), the CV and F-value have The graphical representation of this model will contain more
been used [32]. From Table 4, it is also shown that the model F- identifications of the experimental results which come out
value is 350.92 which is significant for this model with respect with the probability of residual points, actual and predicted
to its negligible p-value (0.0002) and it indicates that the model values on this statistical experimental model. In this model,
terms chosen are important. The coefficient of the model can several ideographic tools have been used to check the ade-
be utilized to identify the precision and accuracy of perfor- quacy of the parameters. The appropriate model is very
mance. The model accepted value of 0.9991 which is 99.91% important because not only has the influence line to be plotted
validity and 1.5% overall cannot be accepted as purely but also the residual effects as well the difference between the

Table 3 e Statistical values for sequential models (Fit tests).


Source Sum of Squares Degrees of freedom Mean Square F- Value p-value
Linear 679.79 8 84.97 113.30 0.0088
2FI 608.71 7 86.96 115.94 0.0086
Quadratic 573.55 5 114.71 152.95 0.0065
Cubic 0.83 1 0.83 1.10 0.4042

Table 4 e Resultant vales of the sequential and experimental models.


Source Sum of Squares df Mean Square F-Value p-value (Prob > F)
Model 2448.23 9 272.03 350.92 0.0002
A-Time 50.07 1 50.07 64.59 0.0040
B-PV power 19.14 1 19.14 24.69 0.0157
AB 71.73 1 71.73 92.54 0.0024
A2 48.46 1 48.46 62.51 0.0042
B2 55.28 1 55.28 71.31 0.0035
A2B 143.06 1 143.06 184.56 0.0009
AB2 329.16 1 329.16 424.63 0.0002
A3 100.93 1 100.93 130.20 0.0014
B3 6.21 1 6.21 8.02 0.0661

Lack of Fit 0.83; R-Squared 0.9991; Adj R-Squared 0.9962; C.V. % 1.88.
14576 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 4 4 ( 2 0 1 9 ) 1 4 5 7 1 e1 4 5 7 9

response and the actual values should be portrayed. These


Table 5 e t-test result for testing the significance of
residual effects are considered as a component of variations
individual parameters.
which exactly fit in this model [33e35]. The normal distribu-
One-Sample Test (Individual Parameter)
tion of residuals is indicated in Fig. 4, which is plotted with
respect to the predicted values. The straight line is rationally Factor t DgF p-value
closed and the square points are tacking of the overlooks and Factor, A 92.466 19 0.00001
the data is supported by the normal path as shown by the Factor, B 90.822 19 0.00001
straight line. However, this drift model has been applied to
calculate the prediction results of the hydrogen production
and is compared with the actual experimental results as
shown in Fig. 5. It further clearly shows the magnitude of the
difference between the actual and the predicted values. These
results are suitable because the output results are

Fig. 6 e Residuals vs. predicted hydrogen production.

comparatively close to the straight trend line. Fig. 5 proves


more confidently that the equations and data used for fitting
have been quite appropriate. The CCD method has been
conducted with the experimental output design which func-
tions in converting the hydrogen response in Nm3.
In order to show the fitness of significant data towards the
Fig. 4 e Normal plot of residuals. normality line, t-test is an effective statistical tool. The t-test
can show the validity of the parameter selected for analysis.

Fig. 5 e Predicted vs. actual hydrogen production in Nm3.


Fig. 7 e Residuals vs. number of test run.
i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 4 4 ( 2 0 1 9 ) 1 4 5 7 1 e1 4 5 7 9 14577

any time to disrupt the data arrangement [36]. The amount of


hydrogen production rate in Nm3 shown in the t plot outlier is
as shown in Fig. 7. The plot represents the outlier of t which
calculates the degree of intensity, and the intentional devia-
tion of actual value comes from the predicted values. From
Fig. 6, two side lines are the standard maximum residuals with
a range of ±3 and the values inside are totally related to the
experimental responses [37]. It is seen that the fitted model is
created based upon the response values without unknown
error.
Fig. 8 shows the hydrogen production rate with the help of
two factors in the perturbation plot. This is a process for
starting and ending points on the restricted variables, in
which the method shows that the responses (Hydrogen)
display only single variables. While at the same time, the
additional process indicates that all the variables go through a
centre point, which has a constant value. It is observed that
the slope line is a factor, which represents the response
(hydrogen production) and the flat line shows irresponsibility
for the response. From the diagram, it is clear that the PV
Fig. 8 e Deviation plot for perturbation parameters. power (B) is more effective for the output response. The
perturbation diagram also shows all factors of parameters and
their response coefficients (Y), which is indicated in Eq. (9).
From Table 5, it can be noticed that the p-value obtained from
the t-test analysis is much lower than 0.05 for every individual Model response in 3-D outlook analysis
factor A (time) and B (PV power) taken into consideration is a
highly correlated factor to hydrogen production. The output result of this model has been involved in a 3-D
Fig. 6 shows the reaction between the residuals vs the form which will make a clearer identification for the factors
predicted data optimization for the hydrogen response. This is and the responses. The benefits of the RSM method is that it is
the stage for observing the low to high production levels with capable of observing the interactions between the indepen-
the production of hydrogen being shown in different colors. dent parameters, and their effects which look like a secondary
The output results show that the variables used for this model combination of the factors. In this study, the factors and their
are quite appropriate, hence, there is no need for any modi- graphical presentation are important for understanding the
fication until the results show a big error from the experi- interactive activities between the responses and the inde-
mental side. Further details can be obtained from Table 2. pendent values [38]. In Fig. 9, two 3-D plots are indicated. With
During the experimental period, the outliers are tested for the help of Eq. (9), these 3-D responses (hydrogen production
the occurrence of errors because a severe error can occur at rate) are created. The first one is a high time power factors and

Fig. 9 e 3-D plotted for hydrogen production (Nm3). PV power vs. Time.
14578 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 4 4 ( 2 0 1 9 ) 1 4 5 7 1 e1 4 5 7 9

the hydrogen production. Another plot is approximately PV the nature of the compound, monomer, and response con-
power, time and hydrogen production. Graphical lines and ditions can likewise essentially influence the hydrogen with
colors show which levels are integrating during the period of less impact [40,41]. For future studies, a hybrid photovoltaic
the production of hydrogen. The interaction level between thermal and photovoltaic wind system with an optimized
two parameters has been explained by the response surface water flow cooling system for reducing cell temperature can
and other response which are constantly at their middle be added to get more electrical power from the conventional
points. system.
From the 3-D plot of Fig. 9, it can be conveniently observed
that hydrogen production is 77 Nm3, where the PV power is
6000 Watts and the time consumed is 8760 h. However, at
Acknowledgments
24 h, the two production can be viewed 20 Nm3 and 38 Nm3
respectively. Because production is dependent on PV power
The authors are thankful to the UM Power Energy Dedicated
and time. Those differences show that even the power is
Advanced Centre (UMPEDAC) and the Higher Institution
high, but because of less time spend the production will be
Centre of Excellence (HICoE) Program Research Grant, UMPE-
low. It is very clear that, at the starting point, the production
DAC - 2018 (MOHE HICOE - UMPEDAC) and RU007-2018 for
was of a low amount but when the time increased up to
supporting this research project
that level, the production of hydrogen also increased
correspondingly.
The two plots are the combination of the factors and references
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