Probability When the events are not equally likely, the

frequency approach is used, where the

The probability of something happening is the
likely‐ hood or chance of it happening. Values of
probability lie between 0 and 1, where 0
represents an absolute impossibility and 1
represents an absolute certainty. The probability
of an event happening usually lies somewhere
between these two extreme values and is
expressed as either a proper or decimal fraction.
Expectation
The expectation, 𝐸, of an event happening is defined in
general terms as the product of the probability 𝑝 of an
event happening and the number of attempts made, 𝑛;
i.e., 𝐸 = 𝑝𝑛.
Types of Events
Complementary Event
Complementary event Ec got the event E. it consists of all
outcomes not in E but in S. For example,
E= {Even numbers} = {2, 4, 6} the Ec would be {odd
numbers} = {1, 3, 5}
Equally likely events
Two events E and F are equally likely if,
p (A) =p (B)
A= {1, 2, 3}
B= {4, 5, 6}
And, p (A) =p (B) =
1 P(B)=p(B/A)
2
Mutually Exclusice Events
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive, if A∩ 𝐵=S, i.e.
together A and B include all possible outcomes, P (A∪ 𝐵)
=p(S) =1
Independent Events
Two events E and F are independent if
P (A ∩ 𝐵)= p (A) ×p (B)
P (A |𝐵)= p (A) and p (A|𝐵) = 𝑝(𝑓)
Whenever A and B are independent i.e. when two events
A and Bare independent, the conditional probability
becomes same as marginal probability.
probability is defined as the relative frequency
of occurrence of E. Here N, is the number of
times event is performed and n(E) is the
number of times the event E occurs.
Rules of probability
We will read six rules of probability using which
probability of any compound event involving arbitrary
events A and B, can be computed
Rules 1. The inclusion –exclusion principle of
probability
P(A∪ 𝐵) = p(A) + p(B) – p(A∩ 𝐵)
This equation can be reduced to
P(A∪ 𝐵) = p(A) + p(B)
If A and B are mutually exclusive, since p(A∩ 𝐵)=0
Rule 2: Conditional probability
𝐵 𝐴
P(A∩ 𝐵) = p(A) ×p(𝐴)= p(B) ×p(𝐵)
𝐴
Where p( ) represents the conditional probability of A
𝐵
given B and vice versa for the p(B/A)
P(A∩ 𝐵) is called the joint probability
A and B are the independent events
The respective formula can be reduced to
P(A∩ 𝐵) = p(A) ×p(B)
Where, p(A)= p(A/B)
Bayes’ theorem
Bayes theorem is the most common used probability
based on conditional probability.
An event A can be explained by a given set of exhaustive
and mutually exclusive events B1,B2,…….Bn. The
probability of P(Bi) and p(A|𝐵i) with i=1,2,3….n are
known are the corresponding to the total absence of
knowledge of the occurrence or non-occurrence of A.
𝑝(𝐵𝑖 ) 𝑝(𝐴|𝐵𝑖 )
P(Bi|𝐴) =
∑𝑛
,
𝑘=1 𝑝(𝐵𝑘 )𝑝(𝐴|𝐵𝑘 )
𝑛
Where ∑𝑘=1 𝑝(𝐵𝑘 ) 𝑝(𝐴|𝐵𝑘 ) ≠0
i=1,2,3,4…..n

Approaches to probability Statistics

There are 2 approaches to quantifying probability of an
Event E Arithmetic Mean
1. Classical Approach: Arithmetic Mean for Raw Data
𝑛(𝐸) |𝐸|
P(E) =
𝑛(𝑆)
= |𝑆|
The formula for calculation the arithmetic
mean for the raw data is:
The ratio of the number of ways an event can ∑𝑥
happen to the number of ways sample space 𝑥̅ = 𝑛
can happen, is the probability of the event. 𝑥̅ = arithmetic mean
Classical approach assumes that all outcomes X= refers to the value of an observation
are equally likely. N= number of observation

2. Frequency Approach: The arithmetic mean for grouped data (Frequency

𝑛(𝐸) distribution)
P(E)= lim
𝑁→∞ 𝑁

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The formula for the arithmetic mean calculated from a 𝜎
CV% = × 100
frequency distribution has to be amended to include the 𝜇
frequency. It becomes
∑ 𝑓(𝑥)
𝑋̅= ∑ 𝑓

Median Probability Distribution

Median is the central value of the distribution in the
sense that the number of values less than the median is Random variable
equal to the number of values greater than the median.
So, median is a positional average. It is the frequently the case when an experiment is
performed that we are mainly interested in some
Median for the raw data function of the outcome as opposed to the actual
In general, if we have n values of x, they can be arranged outcome itself.
in ascending order as:
x1<x2<…..<xn Random variable can be continuous or discrete
(𝑛+1)
if n is odd then , median = Discrete random variable is that variable which can take
2
if n is even then , the middle point one value from a discrete set of values.
𝑛 𝑛
+( +1)
median = 2 2
Continuous random variable is that which can take one
2
value from a continuous range of values.

Mode for Grouped Data:

Mode= L+
𝑓0 −𝑓1
×ℎ Distribution
2𝑓0 −𝑓1 −𝑓2
We can divide the distribution into discrete distribution
L= lower limit of the modal class or continuous distribution.
F0=largest frequency (frequency of modal Properties of Discrete distribution
class)
∑ 𝑝(𝑥) = 1
f1= Frequency in the class preceding the modal class E(x) = ∑ 𝑥𝑃(𝑥)
f2=Frequency in the class next to the modal class
V(x) = E(x2)-(E(x)) 2 = ∑ 𝑥 2 𝑃(𝑥) – [∑ 𝑥𝑃(𝑥)] 2
h = width of the modal class
E(x) denotes expected value or average value of the
random variable x, while V(x) denotes the variance of
the random variable x.
Variance
Types of distributions
The square of the standard deviation (𝜎) is called as the
variance (𝜎 2 ) Discrete Distribution:

Coefficient of Variance 1. Binomial Distribution

2. Hypergeometric Distribution
The standard deviation is an absolute measure of 3. Poisson Distribution
dispersion and hence cannot be used for comparing
variability of 2 data sets with different means. Binomial Distribution

Therefore, such comparison are done by using a relative In a binomial distribution, a discrete random
measure of dispersion called coefficient of variation variable X takes up pints 0, 1, 2, 3….n and the
(CV). probability mass at the point X= I is
𝜎
CV=𝜇 , Fi = P(X=i)= (𝑛𝑖) pi(1-p)n-I

Where 𝜎 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑖𝑡𝑜𝑛 and for I = 0,1,2,3,4 ..n

𝜇 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝑠𝑒𝑡
CV is often represented as a percentage,
Now , I = 0,1,2,3..n is called the spectrum of
binomial distribution and number of trials n and the
probability of success p are called the parameters
of the distribution.

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 Also, ∑𝑛𝑖=0 𝑓𝑖 =1 Exponential Distribution

A continuous random variable whose probability density

function is given for some 𝜆 > 0 by
Poisson distribution
−𝜆𝑥 𝑖𝑓 𝑥≥0
In a Poisson distribution, a discrete random variable f(x)={𝜆𝑒
0 𝑖𝑓 𝑥<0
X takes up points 0,1,2,3,….∞ and the probability
mass at the point X = I, is
is said to be exponential random variable with
𝑒 −𝜇 𝜇𝑖 parameter 𝜆. The cumulative distributive function F(a) of
fi= p (X=i)= for i=0,1,2,…∞,
𝑖! an exponential random variable is given by:
Where i=0, 1, 2, 3….∞ is called the spectrum of 1
f(a)=p(x≤ 𝑎)=∫0 𝜆𝑒 −𝜆𝑥 .dx = (−𝑒 −𝜆𝑥 )𝑎0 = 1-𝑒 −𝜆𝑎 , a≥ 0
Poisson and 𝜇 is called the parameter of
distribution. For exponential
distribution
Poisson distribution is popularly used to study the
performance of various engineering systems such
as job printing queue for a networking computer Mean = e(X) =
1

system and various queueing systems for 𝛾

processing hobs by one or more machines in case 1

Variance = V(x) =
of mechanical production engineering unit. 𝜆2

Hypergeometric distribution Normal distribution

If the probability changes from trial to trial, one of If X is a normal random variable, or simply that X is
the assumption of the binomial distribution gets normally distributed, with parameters 𝜇 and𝜎 2 , then the
violated and hence binomial distribution cannot be probability density function is given by:
used. In such cases hypergeometric distribution is (𝑥−𝜇)2
1
used. This is particularly used in cases of sampling f(x)= 𝑒− 2𝜎2 , −∞ < 𝑋 < ∞
√2𝜋𝜎
without replacement from an infinite population.
The density function is bell shaped curve that is
symmetric about𝜇.

Continuous Distribution: For normal distribution

1. General continuous Distribution Mean = E(x) = 𝜇

2. Uniform Distribution
3. Exponential Distribution Variance = V(x) = 𝜎 2
4. Normal Distribution
Standard normal distribution
5. Standard Normal Distribution
Since the N (𝜇, 𝜎 2 ) varies with 𝜇 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝜎 2 and the integral
General continuous distribution
can only be evaluated numerically, it is more reasonable
A continuous distribution of X can be defined by a to reduce this distribution to another distribution called
probability density function f(x) which is such a function standard normal distribution for which , the shape and
such that hence the integral values remain constant.

∞
P (−∞ ≤ Χ ≤ ∞) = ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥). 𝑑𝑥 =1 The conversion from N (𝜇, 𝜎 2 ) to N(0,1) is effected by
the following transformation
The expected value of x is given by 𝑋−𝜇
Z=
∞ 𝜎
𝜇x= E(x) = ∫−∞ 𝑥𝑓(𝑥). 𝑑𝑥
Where Z is called the standard normal variate

For standard normal distribution

Uniform distribution
Mean = E(X)= 0
𝛽+𝛼
Mean = E(x)=
2 Variance = V(x)=1
(𝛽+𝛼)2
Variance= V(x)=
12

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Hence the standard normal distribution is also referred 8. Consider the continuous random variable with
to as the N(0,1) distribution. probability density function 𝑓(𝑡) = 1 + 𝑡 for—l ≤
𝑡≤0
Chebyshev’s Inequality = 1 − 𝑡 for 0 ≤ 𝑡 ≤ 1

This inequality guarantees that in any probability The standard deviation of the random variable
distribution, nearly all values are close to the mean the is
1
precise statement being that no more than of
𝐾2 1 1 1 1
distributions. Values can be more than K standard (A) (B) (C) (D)
√3 √6 3 6
deviation away from the mean.
9. A box contains 20 defective items and 80 non‐
Let X be a random variable with finite expected values 𝜇 defective items. If two items are selected at
and finite non-zero variance𝜎 2 . Then for any real random without replacement, what will be the
number k>0 probability that both items are defective?
1 1 20 19
(A) (B) (C) (D)
1 5 25 99 495
P(|𝑋 − 𝜇|3 K𝜎) ≤ for k> 0
𝐾2
10. Let 𝑋 and 𝑌 be two independent random variables.
1
Which leads to P(|𝑋 − 𝜇| <K𝜎) ≥1- Which one of the relations between expectation
𝐾2
(E), variance (Var) and covariance (Cov) given below
is FALSE?
(A) 𝐸(𝑋𝑌) = 𝐸(𝑋)𝐸(𝑌)
QUESTIONS
(B) Cov (𝑋, 𝑌) = 0
1. An unbiased coin is tossed three times. The
probability that the head turns up in exactly two (C) Var (𝑋 + 𝑌) = Var (𝑋) + Var (Y)
cases is
1 1 2 3 (D) 𝐸(𝑋 2 𝑌 2 ) = (𝐸(𝑋))2 (𝐸(𝑌))2
(A) (B) (C) (D)
9 8 3 8
11. A coin is tossed 4 times. What is the probability of
2. Manish has to travel from 𝐴 to 𝐷 changing buses at getting heads exactly 3 times?
stops 𝐵 and 𝐶 enroute. The maximum waiting time 1 3 1 3
(A) (B) (C) (D)
at either stop can be 8 min each but any time of 4 8 2 4
waiting up to 8 min is equally, likely at both places.
12. The standard deviation of a uniformly distributed
He can afford up to 13 min oftotal waiting time ifhe
random variable between 0 and 1 is
is to arrive at 𝐷 on time. What is the probability 1 1 5 7
that Manish will arrive late at ? (A) (𝐵) (C) (𝐷)
√12 √3 √12 √12
8 13 119 9
(A) (B) (C) (D)
13 64 128 128 13. If three coins are tossed simultaneously, the
probability of getting at least one head is
3. Two dice are thrown. What is the probability that
(A) 1/8 (B) 3/8
the sum of the numbers on the two dice is eight?
5 5 1 1
(A) (B) (C) (D) (C) 1/2 (D) 7/8
36 18 4 3

4. A box contains 5 black and 5 red balls. Two balls are 14. A box contains 2 washers, 3 nuts and 4 bolts. Items
randomly picked one after another form the box, are drawn 𝑓𝑖: 𝑜𝑚 the box at random one at a time
without replacement. The probability for balls without replacement. The probability of drawing 2
being red is washers first followed by 3 nuts and subsequently
(A) 1/90 (B) 1/2 the 4 bolts is
(A) 2/315 (B) 1/630(C) 1/1260 (D) 1/252
(C) 19/90 (D) 2/9
15. An unbiased coin is tossed five times. The outcome
5. From a pack of regular playing cards, two cards are of each toss is either a head or a tail. The
drawn at random. What is the probability that both probability of getting at least one head is
cards will be Kings, if first card in NOT replaced? 1 13 16 31
1 1 1 1
(A) (𝐵) (C) (D)
32 32 32 32
(A) (B) (C) (D)
26 52 169 221
16. Consider the differential equation 𝑥 2 (𝑑2 𝑦𝑙𝑑𝑥 2 ) +
6. A single die is thrown twice. What is the probability 𝑥(𝑑𝑦𝑙𝑑𝑥) − 4𝑦 = 0 with the boundary conditions
that the sum is neither 8 nor 9? of 𝑦(𝑂) = 0 and 𝑦(1) = 1. The complete solution
(A) 1/9 (B) 5/36 (C) 1/4 (D) 3/4 ofthe differential equation is
𝜋𝑥
(A) 𝑥 2 (B) sin ( )
7. A lot has 10% defective items. Ten items are chosen 2
randomly 𝑓𝑖: 𝑜𝑚 this lot. The probability that 𝜋𝑥 𝜋𝑥
(C) 𝑒 𝑥 sin ( ) (D) 𝑒 −𝑥 sin ( )
exactly 2 of the chosen items are defective is 2 2
(A) 0.0036 (B) 0.1937 (C) 0.2234 (D) 0.3874

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17. A box contains 4 red balls and 6 black balls. Three
balls are selected randomly from the box one after
another, without replacement. The probability that
the selected set contains one red ball and two black
balls is
(A) 1/20 (B) 1/12

(C) 3/10 (D) 1/2

ANSWERS

1 D
2 B
3 A
4 D
5 D
6 D
7 B
8 B
9 D
10 D
11 A
12 A
13 D
14 C
15 D
16 A
17 D

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