RESIDUAL INCOME MODEL (MAX)

MYOR
*yang diganti cell warna abu abu saja
Net Income
Net Income (annualised)
INPUT Equity
DATA + Listed Shares
TAHAP 1 HITUNG
BOOK BI Repo Rate
VALUE Beta Pefindo
Equity Risk Premium
Book Value

HITUNG Cost of Equity =

TAHAP 2 COST OF Hasil Perhitungan
EQUITY

HITUNG Equity Charge

TAHAP 3 EQUITY Hasil Perhitungan
CHARGE

HITUNG Nilai Residu

PENDAPA Hasil Perhitungan
TAHAP 4
TAN Pendapatan Residu Per Lembar
RESIDU

Book Value Residu

HITUNG Hasil Perhitungan
TAHAP 4 HARGA
WAJAR Nilai Wajar
Hasil Perhitungan

value-price/value (%)
TAHAP 5 MOS MOS

BENJAMIN GRAHAM MODEL (MAX)

MYOR
EPS ANN
G
TAHAP 1 DATA
BI REPO RATE
OBLIGASI RI 10 TAHUN

KOEF Graham
TAHAP 2 STANDAR
Hasil Perhitungan

Koef Bi Repo/Obligasi
HARGA
TAHAP 3
WAJAR
 HARGA Harga Wajar
TAHAP 3
WAJAR Hasil Perhitungan

value-price/value (%)
TAHAP 4 MOS
MOS

ENTERPRISE VALUE (MAX)

MYOR
*yang diganti cell warna abu abu saja
Listed Shares
Debt
Total Liabilities
Trade Payables
Other Payables
INPUT
TAHAP 1 Taxes Payable
DATA
Deviden Payable
Accrued Expenses
Bonds Payable
Cash
EBIT Annual

HITUNG Market Cap

TAHAP 2 MARKET Hasil Perhitungan
CAP

Enterprise Value
ENTERPRI
TAHAP 3 Hasil Perhitungan
SE VALUE

HITUNG EV/EBIT
TAHAP 4
RATIO Hasil Perhitungan Ratio

EV TO EBIT MAX
HITUNG Enterprise Value Adjusted
TAHAP 5 HARGA
WAJAR Market Cap
Fair Value Per Share

value-price/value (%)
TAHAP 6 MOS
MOS

DEVIDEN DISCOUNTED MODEL (MAX)

MYOR
 Deviden
Deviden 2015
PROYEKSI Deviden 2016
KAN Deviden 2017
TAHAP 1 DEVIDEN
TAHUN Deviden 2018
DEPAN Deviden 2019

Deviden 2020

Cost of equity =
BI Repo Rate
Beta
HITUNG Equity Risk Premium
TAHAP 2 COST OF
EQUITY Hasil perhitungan
WAJAR
BI REPO RATE + SBR

Harapan Kita

TAHAP 1 Tahap 1/ Tahap 2

TAHAP 3 DIBAGI
TAHAP 2

value-price/value (%)
TAHAP 4 MOS MOS

TRAILING PEG RATIO

MYOR
*yang diganti cell warna abu abu saja
Net Income
Net Income (annualised)
Listed Shares
INPUT
TAHAP 1 EPS ann
DATA
EPS 2015
Devidend 2019
Deviden Yield

PER =
TAHAP 2 HITUNG Hasil Perhitungan
PER

Pertumbuhan EPS 5 tahun =

Hasil Perhitungan
HITUNG PEG Ratio =
TAHAP 3 RATIO
PEG
 HITUNG
TAHAP 3 RATIO Hasil Perhitungan
PEG

PER adjusted =
EPS
TAHAP 4 Adjusted Hasil Perhitungan

HITUNG Harga Wajar =

TAHAP 4 HARGA
WAJAR Hasil Perhitungan

value-price/value (%)
TAHAP 5 MOS MOS

FCFF sederhana (MAX)

MYOR
*yang diganti cell warna abu abu saja
Cash From Operating
CFO (annualised) 2019
Capital Expanditure
Capital expanditure (annualised) 2019
Listed Shares
Equity
Debt
Equity + Debt
INPUT Income Before Tax
TAHAP 1
DATA Income Tax Expenses
Tax Rate (%)
Interest Expense
Interest Expense (Annialised)
Interest Rate (%)
Inflasi Des 2019 (%)
Beta
Risk Free Rate/Obligasi 10 Yr (%)
Equity Risk Premium (%)

HITUNG FCF
TAHAP 2 FREE
CASH Hasil Perhitungan
FLOW

Equity Cost of Equity (%)

Compone Hasil Perhitungan
TAHAP 3
nts of E - WACC (%)
WACC
Hasil Perhitungan
 Debt Cost of Debt (%)
Compone Hasil Perhitungan
TAHAP 4
nts of D - WACC (%)
WACC
Hasil Perhitungan

WACC
Hitung
TAHAP 5 Hasil Perhitungan
WACC

HITUNG Harga Wajar =

TAHAP 6 HARGA
WAJAR Hasil Perhitungan

value-price/value (%)
TAHAP 7 MOS MOS

PER RELATIVE (MAX)

MYOR
PER ANNUAL MAKS
HARGA
TAHAP 1 EPS x PER
WAJAR

value-price/value (%)
TAHAP 4 MOS MOS

PBV RELATIVE (MAX)

MYOR
PBV MAKS
HARGA
TAHAP 1 PBV x BOOK VALUE
WAJAR

value-price/value (%)
TAHAP 4 MOS MOS

52 WEEK RANGE (MAX)

MYOR
WEEK RANGE MAX 52 MINGGU
 FOOTBALL FIELD
MYOR
MAX MIN
RESIDUAL INCOME Rp 1,320.95 Rp 900.87
GRAHAM MODEL Rp 1,850.14 Rp 1,129.31
ENTERPRISE VALUE Rp 3,615.12 Rp 1,475.69
DDM Rp 498.29 Rp 376.02
PER RELATIVE Rp 3,445.00 Rp 1,300.00
PBV RELATIVE Rp 2,750.00 Rp 1,375.00
52 WEEK RANGE Rp 2,750.00 Rp 1,950.00
PEG Ratio Rp 2,744.16 Rp 2,644.76
FCFF Rp 553.15 Rp 351.27

Football Field
Rp4,000.00

Rp3,500.00

Rp3,000.00

Rp2,500.00

Rp2,000.00 Rp1,970.00 Harga Pasar

Rp1,723.87 Harga Wajar

Rp1,500.00
 Rp1,723.87 Harga Wajar

Rp1,500.00

Rp1,000.00

Rp500.00

Rp-
ODEL (MAX)
1970
Rp 1,132,273,000,000
Rp 1,509,697,333,333
Rp 9,012,163,000,000
22358699725
5.00% atau Obligasi RI 10 tahun
Rp 0.352
7.08%
Rp 403.07

Bi Repo Rate + Beta (CAGR IHSG-BI REPO RATE)

5.11%
Bi repo rate bisa disubtitusi
dengan obligasi RI 10
total equity x cost of equity tahun, saya prefere repo
karena hasilnya lebih
Rp 460,664,281,961.92 moderat (dengan obligasi
lebih optimis)

Net Income - Equity Charge

Rp 1,049,033,051,371.41
Rp 46.92

Tahap 4/Cost of Equity

Rp 917.88
Book Value + Book Value Residu
Rp 1,320.95

-49.13%

MODEL (MAX)
1970
Rp 65
Rp 15
5.00%
6.76%

EPSx(8,5+2g)
2502.50

0.74
 Tahap 1 x Koef BI REPO/Obligasi
Rp 1,850.14

-6.48%

E (MAX)
1970
Rp 22,358,699,725
Rp 5,374,372,101,567
Rp 9,185,959,336,242
Rp 1,134,227,611,771
Rp 71,925,983,421
Rp 50,700,623,596
Rp -
Rp 1,008,370,734,910
Rp 1,546,362,280,977
Rp 2,102,563,344,591
Rp 2,585,668,000,000

Listed Shares x Price

Rp 44,046,638,458,250.00

Market Cap + Debt - Cash

Rp 47,318,447,215,226.00

Tahap 3/EBIT
18.30

34.00
Rp 87,912,712,000,000
Rp 80,829,316,008,349.00
Rp 3,615.12

45.51%

MODEL (MAX)
1970
 Deviden Pertumbuhan Dev
Rp 6
Rp 12 47%
Rp 21 43%
Rp 27 22%
Rp 29 7%
30%
Rp 38

Bi Repo Rate + Beta (CAGR IHSG-BI REPO RATE)

5.00%
Rp 0.352
7.08%
7.55%

12.45%

10 - 15 %

Rp 498.29

-295.35%

ATIO
1970
Rp 1,132,273,000,000
Rp 1,509,697,333,333
Rp 22,358,699,725
Rp 67.52
Rp 18.00
Rp 29.00
1.47%

Price/EPS
29.18

((EPS ann 2019/eps 2015)^1/4)-1

39.17%
PER/(EPS Growth+Dev Yield)
 0.72
MURAH <1
WAJAR = 1
MAHAL > 1

EPS Growth + Dev Yield

40.64

EPS ann x PER Adjusted

Rp 2,744.16

28.21%

(MAX)
1970
Rp 1,769,706,000,000
Rp 2,359,608,000,000
Rp 1,410,046,000,000
Rp 1,880,061,333,333
Rp 22,358,699,725
Rp 9,012,163,000,000
Rp 9,185,959,336,242
Rp 18,198,122,336,242
Rp 1,506,233,000,000
Rp 377,294,000,000
25.05%
Rp 366,750,000,000
Rp 489,000,000,000
5.32%
2.72%
Rp 0.352
6.76%
7.08%

CFO - Capital Expanditure

Rp 479,546,666,667

Risk Free Rate + Beta * Equity Risk Premium

9.26%
Equity/Total Equity+total debt * Cost of equity
4.58%
 Interest expense/Total Debt * (1-tax rate)
3.99%
Debt/Total Equity+total debt * Cost of Debt
2.01%

Tahap 3 + Tahap 4
6.60%

FCFF/(1+WACC)/Listed Shares
Rp 553.15

-256.14%

MAX)
1970
53
Rp 3,445.00

42.82%

MAX)
1970
10
Rp 2,750.00

28.36%

(MAX)
1970
Rp 2,750
ELD
1970
Range Price
Rp 420.08 Rp 1,970.00
Rp 720.83 Rp 1,970.00
Rp 2,139.43 Rp 1,970.00
Rp 122.28 Rp 1,970.00
Rp 2,145.00 Rp 1,970.00
Rp 1,375.00 Rp 1,970.00
Rp 800.00 Rp 1,970.00
Rp 99.40 Rp 1,970.00
Rp 201.88 Rp 1,970.00

ll Field

Rp1,970.00

Rp1,723.87
Rp1,970.00

Rp1,723.87

X
Nizar Imam Hanafi
https://w w w .youtube.com/nizarimam
 RESIDUAL INCOME MODEL
MYOR
*yang diganti cell warna abu abu saja

INPUT
DATA +
TAHAP 1 HITUNG
6.76% BOOK
VALUE

HITUNG
TAHAP 2 COST OF
EQUITY

HITUNG
TAHAP 3 EQUITY
CHARGE

HITUNG
PENDAPA
TAHAP 4
TAN
RESIDU

HITUNG
TAHAP 4 HARGA
WAJAR

TAHAP 5 MOS

BENJAMIN GRAHAM MODEL

MYOR

TAHAP 1 DATA

KOEF
TAHAP 2 STANDAR

HARGA
TAHAP 3
WAJAR
 HARGA
TAHAP 3
WAJAR

TAHAP 4 MOS

ENTERPRISE VALUE (MI

MYOR
*yang diganti cell warna abu abu saja

INPUT
TAHAP 1
DATA

HITUNG
TAHAP 2 MARKET
CAP

ENTERPRI
TAHAP 3
SE VALUE

HITUNG
TAHAP 4
RATIO

HITUNG
TAHAP 5 HARGA
WAJAR

TAHAP 6 MOS

DEVIDEN DISCOUNTED MODE

MYOR
 PROYEKSI
KAN
TAHAP 1 DEVIDEN
TAHUN
DEPAN

HITUNG
TAHAP 2 COST OF
EQUITY
WAJAR

TAHAP 1
TAHAP 3 DIBAGI
TAHAP 2

TAHAP 4 MOS

TRAILING PEG RATIO

MYOR
*yang diganti cell warna abu abu saja

INPUT
TAHAP 1
DATA

HITUNG
TAHAP 2
PER

HITUNG
TAHAP 3 RATIO
PEG
 HITUNG
TAHAP 3 RATIO
PEG

EPS
TAHAP 4 Adjusted

HITUNG
TAHAP 4 HARGA
WAJAR

TAHAP 5 MOS

FCFF sederhana (MIN)

MYOR
*yang diganti cell warna abu abu saja

INPUT
TAHAP 1
DATA

HITUNG
TAHAP 2 FREE
CASH
FLOW

Equity
Compone
TAHAP 3
nts of
WACC
 Debt
Compone
TAHAP 4
nts of
WACC

Hitung
TAHAP 5
WACC

HITUNG
TAHAP 6 HARGA
WAJAR

TAHAP 7 MOS

PER RELATIVE (MIN)

MYOR

HARGA
TAHAP 1
WAJAR

TAHAP 4 MOS

PBV RELATIVE (MIN)

MYOR

HARGA
TAHAP 1
WAJAR

TAHAP 4 MOS

52 WEEK RANGE (MIN

MYOR
WEEK RANGE MIN 52 MINGGU
 Median Avg Median
Rp 1,723.87 Rp 1,110.91
Rp 1,723.87 Rp 1,489.72
Rp 1,723.87 Rp 2,545.40
Rp 1,723.87 Rp 437.16
Rp 1,723.87 Rp 2,372.50
Rp 1,723.87 Rp 2,062.50
Rp 1,723.87 Rp 2,350.00
Rp 1,723.87 Rp 2,694.46
Rp 1,723.87 Rp 452.21
Rp 1,723.87
X
Nizar Imam Hanafi
https://w w w .youtube.com/nizarimam
RESIDUAL INCOME MODEL (MIN)
OR 1970
Net Income Rp 1,132,273,000,000
Net Income (annualised) Rp 1,509,697,333,333
Equity Rp 9,012,163,000,000
Listed Shares Rp 22,358,699,725
BI Repo Rate 5.00%
Beta Pefindo Rp 0.352
Equity Risk Premium 7.08%
Book Value Rp 403.07

Cost of Equity = Bi Repo Rate + Beta (CAGR IHSG-BI REPO RATE)

Hasil Perhitungan 7.50%

Equity Charge total equity x cost of equity

Hasil Perhitungan Rp 675,476,036,310.80

Nilai Residu Net Income - Equity Charge

Hasil Perhitungan Rp 834,221,297,022.53
Pendapatan Residu Per Lembar Rp 37.31

Book Value Residu Tahap 4/Cost of Equity

Hasil Perhitungan Rp 497.80
Nilai Wajar Book Value + Book Value Residu
Hasil Perhitungan Rp 900.87

value-price/value (%)
MOS -118.68%

BENJAMIN GRAHAM MODEL (MIN)

OR 1970
EPS ANN Rp 65
G Rp 15
BI REPO RATE 5.00%
OBLIGASI RI 10 TAHUN 6.76%

Graham EPSx(8,5+g)
Hasil Perhitungan 1527.50

Koef Bi Repo/Obligasi 0.74

 Harga Wajar Tahap 1 x Koef BI REPO/Obligasi
Hasil Perhitungan Rp 1,129.31

value-price/value (%)
MOS -74.44%

ENTERPRISE VALUE (MIN)

OR 1970
Listed Shares Rp 22,358,699,725
Debt Rp 5,374,372,101,567
Total Liabilities Rp 9,185,959,336,242
Trade Payables Rp 1,134,227,611,771
Other Payables Rp 71,925,983,421
Taxes Payable Rp 50,700,623,596
Deviden Payable Rp -
Accrued Expenses Rp 1,008,370,734,910
Bonds Payable Rp 1,546,362,280,977
Cash Rp 2,102,563,344,591
EBIT ANNUAL Rp 2,585,668,000,000

Market Cap Listed Shares x Price

Hasil Perhitungan Rp 44,046,638,458,250.00

Enterprise Value Market Cap + Debt - Cash

Hasil Perhitungan Rp 47,318,447,215,226.00

EV/EBIT Tahap 3/EBIT

Hasil Perhitungan Ratio 18.30

EV TO EBIT MIN 15.50

Enterprise Value Adjusted Rp 40,077,854,000,000
Market Cap Rp 32,994,458,008,349.00
Fair Value Per Share Rp 1,475.69

value-price/value (%)
MOS -33.50%

EVIDEN DISCOUNTED MODEL (MIN)

OR 1970
 Deviden Pertumbuhan Dev
Deviden 2015 Rp 6
Deviden 2016 Rp 12 47%
Deviden 2017 Rp 21 43%
Deviden 2018 Rp 27 22%
Deviden 2019 Rp 29 7%
30%
Deviden 2020 Rp 38

Cost of equity = Bi Repo Rate + Beta (CAGR IHSG-BI REPO RATE)

BI Repo Rate 5.00%
Beta Rp 0.352
Equity Risk Premium 7.08%
Hasil perhitungan 7.55%

BI REPO RATE + SBR 12.45%

Harapan Kita 10 - 15 %

Tahap 1/ Tahap 2 Rp 376.02

value-price/value (%)
MOS -423.91%

TRAILING PEG RATIO

OR 1970
Net Income Rp 1,132,273,000,000
Net Income (annualised) Rp 1,509,697,333,333
Listed Shares Rp 22,358,699,725
EPS ann Rp 67.52
EPS 2015 Rp 18.00
Devidend 2019 Rp 29.00
Deviden Yield 1.47%

PER = Price/EPS
Hasil Perhitungan 29.18

Pertumbuhan EPS 5 tahun = ((EPS ann 2019/eps 2015)^1/4)-1

Hasil Perhitungan 39.17%
PEG Ratio = PER/(EPS Growth+Dev Yield)
 Hasil Perhitungan 0.72
MURAH <1
WAJAR = 1
MAHAL > 1

PER adjusted = EPS Growth + Dev Yield

Hasil Perhitungan 39.17

Harga Wajar = EPS ann x PER Adjusted

Hasil Perhitungan Rp 2,644.76

value-price/value (%)
MOS 25.51%

FCFF sederhana (MIN)

OR 1970
Cash From Operating Rp 1,769,706,000,000
CFO (annualised) 2019 Rp 2,359,608,000,000
Capital Expanditure Rp 1,410,046,000,000
Capital expanditure (annualised) 20 Rp 1,880,061,333,333
Listed Shares Rp 22,358,699,725
Equity Rp 9,012,163,000,000
Debt Rp 9,185,959,336,242
Equity + Debt Rp 18,198,122,336,242
Income Before Tax Rp 1,506,233,000,000
Income Tax Expenses Rp 377,294,000,000
Tax Rate (%) 25.05%
Interest Expense Rp 366,750,000,000
Interest Expense (Annialised) Rp 489,000,000,000
Interest Rate (%) 5.32%
Inflasi Des 2019 (%) 2.72%
Beta 1.345
Risk Free Rate/Obligasi 10 Yr (%) 7.03%
BI REPO RATE 5.00%

FCF CFO - Capital Expanditure

Hasil Perhitungan Rp 479,546,666,667

Cost of Equity (%) Risk Free Rate + Beta * Equity Risk Premium
Hasil Perhitungan 13.76%
E - WACC (%) Equity/Total Equity+total debt * Cost of equity
Hasil Perhitungan 6.81%
 Cost of Debt (%) Interest expense/Total Debt * (1-tax rate)
Hasil Perhitungan 3.99%
D - WACC (%) Debt/Total Equity+total debt * Cost of Debt
Hasil Perhitungan 2.01%

WACC Tahap 3 + Tahap 4

Hasil Perhitungan 8.83%

Harga Wajar = FCFF/(1+WACC)/Listed Shares

Hasil Perhitungan Rp 351.27

value-price/value (%)
MOS -460.82%

PER RELATIVE (MIN)

OR 1970
PER ANNUAL MIN 20
EPS x PER Rp 1,300.00

value-price/value (%)
MOS -51.54%

PBV RELATIVE (MIN)

OR 1970
PBV MIN 5
PBV x BOOK VALUE Rp 1,375.00

value-price/value (%)
MOS -43.27%

52 WEEK RANGE (MIN)

OR 1970
52 MINGGU Rp 1,950
Pertumbuhan Dev