Nama : Yusriani Syam

NIM : A021181033

TUGAS 1

TEORI PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN

Soal

2.14. A student taking Management Science 301 at East Haven University will receive one of the
five possible grades for the course: A, B, C, D, or F. The distribution of grades over the past two
years is as follows:

If this past distribution is a good indicator of future grades, what is the probability of a student
receiving a C in the course?

Answer :

The probability that a student will receive a C in the course is 30%.

2.15. A silver dollar is flipped twice. Calculate the proba- bility of each of the following
occurring:
 a. a head on the first flip
b. a tail on the second flip given that the first toss

Answer :

P (kepala) = P (H) = ½ P (ekor) = P (T) = ½

a. kepala pada lemparan pertama

P (H) = ½
b. ekor pada lemparan kedua mengingat lemparan pertama adalah kepala Karena kedua
kejadian tidak saling terkait
P (T | H) = P (T) = ½
c. dua ekor
P (TT) = P (T) * P (T) = ½ * ½ = ¼
d. satu ekor pada ekor pertama dan satu kepala pada ekor kedua
P (TH) = P (T) * P (H) = ½ * ½ = ¼
e. ekor di pertama dan kepala di kedua atau kepala di pertama dan ekor di kedua
P (HT) = P (H) * P (T) = ½ * ½ = ¼ P (TH atau HT) = P (TH) + P (HT) = ¼ + ¼ = 2/4
=½
f. setidaknya satu kepala pada dua flips
P (TH atau HT atau HH ) = P (TH) + P (HT) + P (HH) = ¼ + ¼ + ¼ = ¾

2.16. An urn contains 8 red chips, 10 green chips, and 2 white chips. A chip is drawn and
replaced, and then a second chip drawn. What is the probability of

a. a white chip on the first draw?

b. a white chip on the first draw and a red on the second?
c. two green chips being drawn?
d. a red chip on the second, given that a white chip was drawn on the first?

Answer :

8+10+2=20

There are 20 total chips.

a. 2/20=1/10=0.1
b. Probability of white chip on first draw: 2/20
Probability of red chip on second draw: 8/20
(2/20)*(8/20)=(1/25)
c. Probability of green chip: 10/20
(10/20)*(10/20)=(1/4)
 d. Probability of white chip: 2/20
Probability of red chip: 8/20
(2/20)*(8/20)=(1/25)

2.17. Evertight, a leading manufacturer of quality nails, produces 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5inch nails
for various uses. In the production process, if there is an overrun or the nails are slightly
defective, they are placed in a common bin. Yesterday, 651 of the 1-inch nails, 243 of the 2-inch
nails, 41 of the 3-inch nails, 451 of the 4-inch nails, and 333 of the 5-inch nails were placed in
the bin.

a. What is the probability of reaching into the bin and getting a 4-inch nail?
b. What is the probability of getting a 5-inch nail?
c. If a particular application requires a nail that is 3 inches or shorter, what is the probability
of getting a nail that will satisfy the requirements of the application?

Answer :

Total number of nails = 651 + 243 + 41 + 451 + 333 = 1719

P(4 inch) = 451 / 1719 = .2624 or 26.24%

P(5 inch) = 333 / 1719 = .1937 or 19.37%

P(3 or shorter) = P(1) + P(2) + P(3) = ( 651 + 243 + 41 ) / 1719 = 54.39%

2.18. Last year, at Northern Manufacturing Company, 200 people had colds during the year. One
hundred fifty-five people who did no exercising had colds, and the remainder of the people with
colds were involved in a weekly exercise program. Half of the 1,000 employees were involved in
some type of exercise.

a. What is the probability that an employee will have a cold next year?
b. Given that an employee is involved in an exercise program, what is the probability that
he or she will get a cold next year?
 c. What is the probability that an employee who is not involved in an exercise program will
get a cold next year?
d. Are exercising and getting a cold independent events? Explain your answer.

Answer :

a. the probability that an employee will have a cold: 200 / 1000 = 0.2
b. the probability is (200-155) / (1000/2) = 0.09
c. the probability is 155 / (1000/2) = 0.31
d. They are not independent events. Since the probability of those who have cold and
exercise is 0.09, it is not a product of probability of having exercise (0.5) and probability
of having cold (0.2).