Name: Talha Ahmad Iqbal Roll # BBHM-S18-045

BBA 5 Subject: Supply Chain Management

Final Exam
Question # 1: Answer:

Introduction:
Coronaviruses are found in avian and mammalian species. They resemble each other in morphology and chemical
structure, for example the coronaviruses of humans and cattle are antigenic ally related. There is no evidence that
human coronaviruses can be transmitted by animals. In animals various coronaviruses invade many different
tissues and causes a verity of diseases, but in humans they are only proved to cause mild upper respiratory
infections, common colds. On rare occasion gastrointestinal coronaviruses infection has been associated without
breaks of diarrhea in children, but these viruses are not well characterized and are not discussed in this chapter.

Bullwhip effect:
It is that process in which the qualities of product reduce in case of damage, the solution of this problem is to
become a good communication system from customer to manufacture.

As we know that the Pakistan is lockdown because of corona viruses. A person is go tend he get the groceries of
one or two months because he didn’t know that he will buy groceries after sometime. Customer when demand the
whole product then shopkeeper think that his stock is limited than he ordered to his retailer in a large quantity.
Retailers also need a large quantity of items because he has many shopkeepers to give his item. He gives order to
distributer in a large quantity that he can easily manage his customer. Now distribution also thinks that he hasn’t
much stock that’s why he places his order to manufacture in a very large quantity. In this condition everybody can
take groceries according to his need.

Due to lockdown markets of Pakistan is highly affected. Some retailers and distributers also worried because he
didn’t save items in large quantity. They save as much they need but now that every person needs products. Some
manufacture companies didn’t stock their products because they made just as much order.

Conclusion:
Bullwhip effect due to coronaviruses. Coronaviruses are highly effect due to market and industry. Every business
are highly effected due to coronaviruses everything are short in market demand is too much higher in market so its
create inflection.

Question # 2: Answer:
Several times over the last few weeks, I have heard of 2020 being referred to as a bad movie with a particularly
grim storyline. The repercussions of COVID-19 outbreak are being felt more strongly with every passing day, and
despite the unprecedented steps and cumulative efforts undertaken by governments, businesses and individuals to
stem its growth, the virus continues to rampage unchecked across the globe, causing loss of life and hitting
businesses across industries and verticals. The fact that the origins of the virus lie in Pakistan, the de-facto ‘factory
of the world’, has only served to accentuate the damage from an economic perspective with a significant
percentage of supply chains reeling in shock and crumbling with each passing day.

As per a March survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Chain Management, nearly 75 per cent of companies
reported supply chain disruptions in one form or the other due to coronavirus-related transportation restrictions,
and the figure is expected to rise further over the next few weeks. Other interesting figures that emerged from the
survey included the lack of any semblance of a contingency plan for almost half the companies in case of a supply
chain disruption leading back to China, and well over 50 per cent of the companies also reported experiencing
sudden, unexpected delays in receiving orders, a problem compounded by supply chain information blackout from
Pakistan.

The figures above serve to bring out the vulnerable state of global supply chains, the lifeblood of our towering
economies in sharp relief. However, the writing had been on the wall for quite some time. Consolidation of
suppliers by geos, where efficiency has historically been the key strategy driver and limited focus on de-risking
procurement and supply chains over the last several years, has contributed to the current state of affairs with
shortages of key items.

Distribution:

 Distribution of products is going through some unique challenges such as staffing of warehouses, a need
for direct distribution and more intelligent and responsive allocation across channels.
 Retailing is also been impacted in a peculiar way. The lockdown and curfew scenarios across the world
have led to a unique situation where there is demand as far as essentials are concerned, subdued demand in
some niche areas, and big challenges in the luxury items segment, and we are likely to see several retailers
down their shutters while many others will be severely challenged on operating margins and models.
 On the consumer side, hoarding/stocking of essential commodities and over-the-counter medicines has led
to unusual stress on the supply chains. It is not unusual for consumers to panic stock food and other
essential commodities during times of crisis. While this leads to stress if the stockpiling goes beyond a few
weeks, it is natural for consumers to be anxious about availability and resort to this kind of behavior. These
unnatural spikes in demand and the required supply fluctuations are extremely difficult to handle and
together create a bullwhip effect in the entire supply chain often leading to artificial shortages.

Some key elements, that will prove crucial in the supply chains of tomorrow include: 

 Intelligent retrieval: To help organizations understand where and when to source using advanced machine
learning algorithms based on past purchases, commodity pricing, agro and industrial trends, among others.
 Supply chain control tower: A single source of truth from sourcing to delivery for all trading partners to
see and adapt to changing demand and supply scenarios across the world.
 Supply chain data management with intelligent automation and analytics: End-to-end information
management, taking the form of a data vault of sorts to capture supply chain transactions accurately with
high consistency and minimum redundancy. This will help supply chain organizations gather insights
around supplier performance, supply chain diagnostics, market intelligence and risk management.
 Supplier risk management: N tier risk management helping organizations model cost structures, trend
performance data and visibility in to extended value chain to keep abreast of any supply disruptions and
secure capacity. This could help companies avoid sudden disruptions in supply chain and deal with lack of
information, something that many major global companies including Sony, are facing today.
  Supply chain simulation: Modeling new supply chain strategies based on business/operating model
change, current and/or future supply/demand/logistics constraints. Helps to validate and identify the best
cost-efficient network to achieve the necessary service level across the value chain.

To conclude, the one thing that humans are better at than any other sentient life-form is our ability to learn from
our cumulative experiences and implement those learning’s to come back stronger. From a purely business
perspective, COVID-19 presents a slew of serious and sometimes unprecedented challenges for organizations
cutting across the business environment, including a possible liquidity crunch, disruptions, increase in trade
barriers, and a shifting consumer mindset. However, the post-COVID world will see digital technologies playing a
critical enabling-role in delivering improvements throughout the breadth of businesses, including more resilient
supply chains, significantly enhanced user-experiences, and intelligent optimized processes to deliver business
outcomes.

Factories that can modularize production and shift/adapt lines due to demand changes will be the norm of the
future. They would be backed by supply networks capable of communicating intelligently with one another,
compounding their effectiveness and agility. Businesses are going to pay a lot of attention to making critical
systems available on the cloud so that they can be remotely accessed by employees as they work from home. We
should also see some of the fence-sitters on cloud migration get that final nudge to the other side—and finally
move to the cloud to enable business continuity. Safety will also be a key factor and supplier risk management will
be at the core to all planning initiatives. One of the few positives of the COVID-19 scenario has been exposing us
to the possibilities of remote working across industries, domains and businesses, and if sustained in the post-
COVID world, this trend will lead to a renewed focus on environment-friendly operating principles.

Question # 3: Answer:
What started as a small viral outbreak in Wuhan city of China has now engulfed the whole planet. All those who
had any false hope and blunder of containing this are now in shock. The world has come to a standstill. The
COVID 19 outbreak is now a global event that is affecting every human being alive as of today. China suffered to
contain the virus from December and has been declared cleared of the virus after 5 long months. South Korea and
Singapore have also been competent enough to control the spread, but many other countries like Italy, France,
Spain and the United States have not been so fortunate. This incident is more catastrophic than the Second World
War. As the developed nations of the world are facing the full brunt of the disease, developing countries are yet to
arrive at the point where they are over helmed. Pakistan is on the border and there is a tight rope in front of a weak
economy. The year ahead is perhaps the most formidable challenge the country has faced, and one that will require
resilience, competence and discipline, the other side of the equation, if we fail, is worse than our darkest
nightmares.

The implications for the financial system from COVID 19 can be bifurcated into two broad areas. First is the
International and external impact. Movement of goods and cargo is also blocked making it extremely difficult to
maintain the flow of business. Conversely, imports cannot be completed as lockdowns have shut down every
major city in the world. People are not coming to offices and Governments have ordered to work from home. This
model can work for IT and service-based companies but trade involves tangible goods, which cannot be handled
without human presence. There are a huge number of private companies in Pakistan that heavily rely on imports
for running successfully. Commercial importers will suffer from delays or complete stoppage of the value chain
while industrial importers will have to stop production because of non-availability of raw material. After the initial
grace period, the shortfalls in revenue will result in salary cuts and then finally, job losses. According to PIDE
(Pakistan Institute of Development Economics), there will losses of jobs in the millions, particularly for semi-
skilled and daily wage earners. Around 2.4% of the Annual GDP will be lost due to COVID-19, which is enough
to send the country into a spiraling recession.

Secondly, on the internal side, the closure of schools, offices, factories and markets will hit the small and medium
businesses. There is a possibility of mass defalcation. As the middle and lower-income groups struggle to earn
enough income to feed them and pay for basic necessities, which can result in hyper-inflation, joblessness and
complete collapse of the economy. The Prime Minister of Pakistan realized this scenario and has taken
considerable criticism for not implementing a complete lockdown of the whole country. In his words, we are faced
with two challenges, Corona Virus and its economic impact on the poor segments of the society.

In the analysis of the matter at hand, there is a need to comprehend the fact that there is no treatment available for
the virus COVID 19. It is highly contagious that spreads from person to person through droplets in the air or when
a person comes into contact with surfaces that have been touched by a Corona patient. As of today, over 1.4
Million have been infected and there have been over 85 thousand deaths worldwide. Pakistan was introduced to
the virus through travelers coming in from countries like Iran initially, and then there have been reports of migrant
workers and personnel coming to Pakistan from the Middle East and Europe. Pakistan as of now has over 4
thousand cases and under one hundred deaths which are increasing daily. According to experts, this is just the
incubation period of the spread of the virus and the full blow of the infection is yet to felt. The only way to limit
the spread of the virus is through social distancing, which can only be achieved from the lockdown of cities and
villages alike. If a lockdown is not initiated, there is a risk of massive infection rates which can overwhelm the
health infrastructure resulting in huge loss of lives.

The Prime Minister has announced a tiger force as a volunteer body for supplying food and basic necessities to
poor families. Approximately 7 hundred thousand have already enrolled. A national relief fund for donations has
been created to cater to extra expenses that are being incurred by the Government to fight the COVID outbreak.
The Government of China has been engaged to assist in financial as well as technical matters. 500 ventilators have
been delivered to hospitals across Pakistan and more are on their way. Extra facilities like expo centers are being
converted into quarantine centers for corona patients. As per section 245, the Army has been called to take part in
the fight against Corona and controlling its spread across Pakistan.  A national command and control center has
been created to coordinate the response to COVID-19 cases in their quarantine and contact tracing. It is similar to
preparing a wall before the flood, with the hope that it is able to withstand the impact.

According to the World Bank, Pakistan is among the highest charity giving nations in the world and with one of
the youngest populations, Pakistan and its economy needs both of these to rise above the onslaught of this deadly
virus. Our lives and our livelihood are at stake during this time of global challenge, perhaps the most arduous
challenge ever. Everyone needs to pitch in to rescue each other from this ordeal. As said by a Pakistani guard in an
interview to an International TV Channel, “we are not rich but we have big hearts and with it, we will defeat
Corona Virus”.