Managing

tomorrow’s people*
The future of work to 2020

*connectedthinking
Contents

Introduction 02 Small is beautiful:

welcome to the Orange World 18
2020: where three worlds co-exist 04 The journey to Orange 18
Life in the Orange World: the main themes 19
Corporate is king:
welcome to the Blue World 06 Work in the Orange World:
the people challenges 21
The journey to Blue 06
The Orange HR business model 22
Life in the Blue World: the main themes 07
Work in the Blue World: the people challenges 09 Are you ready for tomorrow’s world? 25
The Blue HR business model 10
Appendix 27
Companies care: Definitions: Scenarios, Millenials 27
welcome to the Green World 12 Our methodology 28
The journey to Green 12 Global forces 29
Life in the Green World: the main themes 13 PwC Graduate Survey findings 30
Work in the Green World:
the people challenges 15 Contacts 32
The Green HR business model 16
Foreword 01

The journey to 2020 about the future of people

management. Our team has
At the beginning of 2007, a team from
identified three possible ‘worlds’
PricewaterhouseCoopers gathered to explore the
– plausible futures to provide a
future of people management. Our thinking was
context in which to examine the
sparked by the rising profile of people issues on
way organisations might operate
the business agenda – the talent crisis, an ageing
in the future. In addition we surveyed almost 3,000
workforce in the western world, the increase in

Managing tomorrow’s people Foreword

MillennialsA1 – new graduates from the US, China
global worker mobility and the organisational and
and the UK who represent a generation just joining
cultural issues emerging from the dramatic pace of
the workforce, to test their views and expectations
business change in the past decade. We wanted
on the future of work.
to explore how these issues might evolve and how
organisations need to adapt to stay successful. We hope you will help us to encourage debate
Many studies have attempted to capture a vision around this critical topic. It is said that the future is
of the workplace of the future, but we set out to not a place we go to, but one which we create. And
understand the people challenges that will impact while things happen that we cannot predict, we can
organisations and consequently the implications still be prepared.
this will have on the HR function as we know it.
Few business thinkers have proposed that the
marketing or finance functions might cease to exist
in their present forms, but some are starting to say
this about HR.
Michael Rendell
With the help of the James Martin Institute for Partner and leader of Human Resource Services
Science and Civilisation at the Said Business PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
School in Oxford, we used ScenariosA1 to think

A1 – Appendix 1, see appendix page 27

02
Introduction

2,739 When we started our research we had some

In July 2007, 2,739 graduates
from China, the US and the UK
told us about their
expectations of work. They had
all been offered jobs with PwC
but had yet to start. Some of
the key findings are highlighted
throughout this report
While some of the findings
seem to confirm current
received thinking about the
future of work, a number of
themes defy conventional
thinking.
PwC is the biggest recruiter
of graduates in the UK and
a leading global recruiter
of graduates. A3
preconceived ideas about tomorrow’s world. Many
studies have been undertaken to explore the future
of society, the environment, business and even the
workplace. Our challenge was to focus explicitly
on the business context and the impact on people
and work.
While we cannot claim to have identified all the
possibilities, several strong themes have emerged:
1. Business models will change
dramatically
The pace of change in the next decade will be
even more fundamental. Technology, globalisation,
demographics and other factors will influence
organisational structures and cultures. Our
scenarios outline three organisational models of the
future:
• large corporates turning into mini-states and
taking on a prominent role in society
• specialisation creating the rise of collaborative
networks
• the environmental agenda forcing fundamental
changes to business strategy.
2. People management will present one
of the greatest business challenges
Businesses currently grapple with the realities of
skills shortages, managing people through change
and creating an effective workforce. By 2020, the
radical change in business models will mean
companies facing issues such as:
• the boundary between work and home life
disappearing as companies assume greater
responsibility for the social welfare of their
employees

A3 – Appendix 3, see appendix for a full breakdown of the findings page 30

 03

3. The role of HR will undergo “HR needs to

fundamental change ensure it is fit for
HR has been perceived by many as a passive, purpose in order
service oriented function, but given the context of
tomorrow’s workplace and business environment,
to be proactive
we believe HR is at a crossroads and will go one of and maintain or

Managing tomorrow’s people Introduction

three ways:
develop its
• with a proactive mindset and focused on influence in the
business strategy, HR will become the heart of
the organisation taking on a new wider people future.”
remit incorporating and influencing many other Keith Murdoch,
aspects of the business Remuneration and
• the function will become the driver of the Benefits Manager,
corporate social responsibility agenda within the British American Tobacco
organisation
• stringent people measurement techniques to
control and monitor productivity and • the function will be seen as transactional and
performance almost entirely outsourced. In this scenario, HR
will exist in a new form outside the organisation
• the rise in importance of social capital and and in house HR will be predominantly focused
relationships as the drivers of business success. on people sourcing.
04
2020: Where three worlds co-exist

We believe it We identified a number of global forces that will

have significant influenceA2, and of those we felt
is possible that all that individualism versus collectivism and corporate
three worlds will integration versus fragmentation would be the most
significant. From this axis we identified three worlds
co-exist in some
and business models for the future.
form, perhaps (See figure 1 opposite.)
distinct by We tried to capture the events and trends which
geographic region, draw a picture of life in tomorrow’s world and the
people management challenges that might prevail.
or industry sector The forecasting timelines and world descriptions
for example. are not intended to be taken literally as complete
visions of alternative futures. They are designed to
present ideas and illustrate the more important
points around the people management challenges.
We believe it is likely that all three worlds will
co-exist in some form, perhaps distinct by
geographic region, or industry sector for example.
As you read this document think about how your
own organisation might be positioned within these
scenarios and what implications this has upon your
current people management strategy.

A2 – Appendix 2, see appendix page 28

Figure 1
2020: three worlds

Managing tomorrow’s people Introduction

05
Corporate is king: the Blue world

Where big company capitalism

reigns supreme

In a nutshell:
The globalisers take centre stage, consumer preference dominates,
a corporate career separates the haves from the have nots.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2020

The Indian World’s biggest The brain-drain of A decade of M&A Global warming
economy expands search engine and Eastern European consolidation changes the
dramatically as largest technology workers starts to across industry climate of Europe;
it goes through company merge reverse as workers sectors peaks as the snow on the
a new wave of return home Alps melts, skiers
cross-border to set up and head to the US
acquisition sprees lead corporates,
and becomes a building on
global leader in expertise gained
several industry in several sectors
sectors

90%
of Chinese respondents expect
they will use a language at work
other than their mother tongue
Size matters
The sheer size of corporations in 2020 means
that a significant number now operate with annual
turnovers that far exceed the GDP of many
individual countries, particularly in the developing
world. With echoes of the business models
promoted by companies like General Motors in the
middle of the last century, many companies now
provide the equivalent of the welfare state for their
employees to ensure they lock the best talent into
their organisations. Internally managed service
centres are sophisticated and highly efficient –
using processes perfected by the outsourcers of
the ‘nineties. People metrics become an essential
part of everyday life to keep track of individual
performance and productivity.
07
Corporates divide the haves and “Our search for
have nots talent is now a
The power of corporations means that a much global search.
greater divide has opened up between those
The competition
working for global corporations and those
working in smaller enterprises. Employees of for talent will only
Managing tomorrow’s people Blue World
mega-corporations have everything they need laid
increase further.”
on. Those working for smaller businesses remain at
the whim of housing markets and basic statutory Hanspeter Horsch
entitlements, needing to self-supplement Associate Director,
educational support, health and insurance Human Resources
coverage, what remains of the public health Samsung Semiconductor
system, and so on. Europe GmbH
Welcome to the technology age
Technology is all pervasive, entire cities in the
US, Japan and the UK operate with ubiquitous
high-speed wireless networks that allow all
commercial transactions, entertainment and
communications to be handled by every individual
on credit card-sized devices. Pinpointing exactly
what you want and being shown where it is
available from wherever you happen to be is now
taken for granted, allowing businesses continuously
to refine and individualise their relationships with
consumers, employees and shareholders.
08
75% Corporates drive lifestyle choices
Sophisticated measurement and segmentation
of respondents strategies mean companies can target goods and
think that workplace services across their customer base and to
employees. For example ‘green politics’ is seen as
flexibility will not
a lifestyle choice rather than a meaningful political
exist; they believe movement. Corporations provide environmental
products and services to those who express a
they will be working preference.
formal office hours
Managing people in the Blue World
• Companies have become the key provider of
services to employees. People management
now encompasses many different aspects of
employees lives’, often including housing, health
and even education for their children.
• This strategy has led to an increase in staff
retention rates as people policies seek to lock in
talent, but the top talent is still hard to attract
and retain, many senior executives use personal
agents to seek out the best deals.
• Mass consolidation has had an impact on
cultural issues. Leadership teams now have a
high focus on the evolution of the corporate
culture with rigorous recruitment processes to
ensure new employees fit the corporate ideal.
Existing staff are subject to compulsory
corporate culture learning and development
programmes.
• Huge people costs drive the need for robust
metrics and analysis. Employee engagement,
performance and productivity are all measured
systematically. Leadership can access people
data on a daily basis. This also provides an early
warning signal of non-corporate behaviour or
below standard performance.
• Technology pervades every realm of business
and leisure activity. The line between inside
work and outside work is often blurred by
technology with employers providing the
platform. This also provides employers with
added insights to staff preferences.
Who leads people
strategy?
• The Chief People Officer (CPO) is a powerful
and influential figure, sometimes known as
the ‘Head of People and Performance’ who
sits on the leadership board.
• Metrics and data are used to drive business
performance through complex staff
segmentation strategies which identify
thousands of skills sets – creating precision
around sourcing the right candidates for the
right tasks as well as on the job performance
measurement and assessment.
• The science of human capital has developed
to such a degree that the connection
between people and performance is
explicitly demonstrated by the CPO.
• As organisations increase in size, their risk
management systems are similarly extended.
• The people risk agenda is one which is taken
seriously by the board – as a result, the CPO
and HR business partners become more
influential.
• Those responsible for people management
increasingly need financial, analytical,
marketing and risk management skills to
measure the impact of the human capital in
their organisation and to attract and retain
the best talent.
Organisational
challenges
• Quality assurance across the globe drives
the need to create consistency across the
organisational supply chain.
• The challenges of size and scale mean that
these organisations are at greater risk from
external threats such as technology
terrorism or meltdown and they find it
difficult to effect change quickly.
• As companies try to reinforce corporate
values, these can often be at odds with
cultural values and can present challenges.
• Organisations must develop models and
systems designed and run by HR
professionals which enable individuals and
their agents to negotiate the value of their
human capital based on employees’
personal investment strategies.
Employee profile 09
• People are graded and profiled at the age of
16 and categorised for work suitability both
in terms of capability and individual
preference.
• The top talent is highly prized and fought
over. In most cases people are linked to an
organisation by the age of 18.
Managing tomorrow’s people Blue World
• University education is managed by the
company according to the organisational
career path chosen by the individual.
• At the top level, employees take far greater
control of their careers; often senior
executives have their own personal agents
who represent them to find the best roles
and deals.
• Lower level employees are also taking
active charge of their careers; they are
aware of the value that their human capital
represents and are demanding about the
circumstances in which they will invest.
• Those outside the corporate sphere find
employment choices are limited to smaller
companies that are unable to provide the
same level of development and financial
benefits.
10 A people management model for the Blue World
In the Blue World where corporate is king, the people and performance model below is the closest to what
many leading companies are aspiring to today – linking HR interventions to improvements in business
performance and using more sophisticated human capital metrics to evaluate corporate activity. Under this
scenario the management of people and performance becomes a hard business discipline, at least equal in
standing to finance in the corporate hierarchy.

Human resources: the current model People and performance: the 2020 model

Figure 2
 11
Future view

Extract from
a newspaper in 2016
People metrics are integral to
analysts’ pricing strategies WORLD FINANCIAL NEWS 3rd April 2016

NEWS IN BRIEF

Managing tomorrow’s people Blue World

Italian pharmaceutical The quarterly report generating a much
giant Como saw its will be looked at improved return on
shares climb higher closely by companies human capital.
yesterday in inside the industry and
expectation of positive beyond. Many credit Mr Fabrizzi said, “You
news in its quarterly Como’s unusually have to measure the
results due next week. rapid rise and things you attach value
The company, now dominance of parts of to. Measuring the
worth an estimated the sector to the way performance of our
€ 20bn has profited CEO Mario Fabrizzi people has allowed
from the success of its manages the us to quickly make
new line of statins in organisation’s human improvements to any
Europe and America, capital, which the underperforming part
but also in China, the company also reports of the business, to
fastest growing on in detail. Last year make effective plans
pharmaceutical market earnings per employee for succession and to
globally. rose by 7% while costs return real value to our
per employee fell 5%, shareholders.”
Companies care: the Green World

Where consumers and employees

force change

In a nutshell:
Companies develop a powerful social conscience and green sense of
responsibility. Consumers demand ethics and environmental credentials
as a top priority. Society and business see their agenda align.

2010 2012 2013 2018 2020

The UK launches The US signs the India becomes a Hybrid or fully A group of
the London Kyoto II agreement key player in the electric cars scientists confirm
Carbon Trading and becomes a corporate social outnumber that the rate of
Exchange leading advocate responsibility petrol-powered global warming
for actions to agenda with a cars is slowing
reduce the rate of focus on
global warming preserving the
Indian culture and
heritage
 13

94% components of the supply chain through vertical

integration. Rigid contractual obligations are in
“We are
place covering every eventuality.
developing an
of respondents believe they will employer brand
work across geographic borders How green are you? reflecting our
more than their parents did. The audit process and quarterly company reports identity as an

Managing tomorrow’s people Green World

Consumers drive corporate behaviour
The environmental lobby is so pervasive that
companies must be quick to react to consumer
concerns about any aspect of their business which
could be deemed unethical. Clear communication
and clarity about products and services is essential.
Supply chain control
Companies have strong control over their supplier
networks to ensure that corporate ethical values
are upheld across the supply chain, and be able to
troubleshoot when things go wrong. This has led to
many organisations taking greater ownership of key
are characterised by a focus on measuring
employer and
greenness detailing carbon emissions ratings, and
carbon exchange activity, as well as the more promoting our
traditional company valuations. This is an indication long term
of the importance shareholders and investors place
on these issues which are reflected in the share
commitment
price. with our
employees.”
Big corporate fines
Hughes Fourault,
In the business world ethical behaviour is the most Global Head of
important attribute to attain and preserve. Brands Compensation, Benefits
can rise and fall on the basis of perceived green and International Mobility,
credentials, with government imposed corporate Société Général
fines for bad behaviour in this highly regulated
world. Corporate responsibility is not an altruistic
nice to have, but a business imperative.
14

90% Managing people in the Green World

• New graduates look for employers with strong
of US respondents environmental and social credentials; in
will actively seek out response HR departments play a key role in
developing the corporate social responsibility
employers whose programme.
corporate • Employees are expected to uphold corporate
responsibility values and targets around the green agenda.
Most are given carbon credit tokens which are
behaviour reflects Working across teams in different locations
used like ration books to be cashed in for
therefore presents enormous challenges to
their own. printing documents in hard copy, company
global businesses, and the HR function
travel and other anti-societal activities.
dedicates significant energy to generating virtual
• The HR function is renamed ‘People and social networks across the operation and the
Society’, the leader being a senior member of client base.
the company’s executive team.
• Most companies provide staff with corporate
• The need to travel to meet clients and transportation options between work and home
colleagues is replaced with technological to minimise the need for car use. This has led to
solutions which reduce the need for face-time. many companies choosing to relocate parts of
Air travel in particular is only permitted in their operation to where people are based and
exceptional circumstances and is expensive. out of big cities.
Who leads people Organisational Employee profile 15

strategy? challenges

• The CEO drives the people strategy
for the organisation, believing that the
people in the organisation and their
behaviours and role in society have a
direct link to the organisation’s
success or failure.
• Quality assurance and vigilance to
minimise risk is paramount.
• The greatest threat to businesses in
this scenario is the possibility of
non-socially responsible behaviour
either within the organisation or in any
• The common belief is that employees
choose employers who appear to
match their beliefs and values. The
reality is that the talent pool for the
brightest and best remains
competitive, and whilst CSR rankings
are a factor, the overall incentive

Managing tomorrow’s people Green World

• The CEO works closely with the Head
of People and Society (HPS) who,
• Organisations operate in a highly
with a team comprising a mix of HR,
marketing, corporate social
responsibility and data specialists,
drives the social responsibility
programme.
• Employment law drives responsible
employer behaviour and forces the
HPS to develop innovative solutions in
times of downturn – such as sending
employees on secondments to other
organisations where they can develop
their skills and contribute to the wider
society, bringing employees back in
when the economic environment
improves. The HPS is therefore a
well-networked individual.
part of its supply chain.
package remains all important.
Incentives however are not just
regulated world, where employment reward-related; for example, they
law makes it difficult to lay people off include paid secondments to work
in line with market fluctuations. They for social projects and needy causes
struggle to monitor everything across – a popular trend post-2010.
the operation to be compliant with the
• Because organisations adopt a more
ethical ideal for which they strive. But
holistic approach to developing
being compliant is not enough:
their people, including personal
organisations are under pressure to
development and measuring the
raise the bar and establish policies
impact they have on the wider world,
and practices which go beyond
employees are more engaged and as
regulatory requirements. The danger
a result are often likely to have a job
in such a regulated world is that
for life.
companies are so preoccupied with
compliance policies that the ability to
be flexible and explore new
opportunities is hampered.
16 A people management model for the Green World
In the Green World where companies care, corporate responsibility (CR) is good. The CR agenda is fused
with people management. As society becomes a convert to the sustainable living movement, the people
management function is forced to embrace sustainability as part of its people engagement and talent
management agendas. Under this scenario successful companies must engage with society across a
broader footprint. Communities, customers and contractors all become equal stakeholders along with
employees and shareholders.

Human resources: the current model People and society: the 2020 model

Figure 3

Future view
Extract from
operating review
In 2020, it is a legal requirement
that companies disclose their
environmental activity. This also
acts as a key differentiator when
recruiting and retaining talent.
17
G-Bank
Sustainable business report
G- BANK
G-BANK recognises its statutory responsibilities under the
Climate Change Act 2015, Ecosystem Change Act 2016,
and all other sustainability legislation. We have been active
Managing tomorrow’s people Green World
participants in the International Business Panel on Climate
Change since it was established in 2010.
The group has adopted the European allowed G-Bank to retain its status as
Sustainable and Responsible a AA+ company within the S&P
Corporations guidance and has sustainability index.
comprehensive company-wide policies
Key environmental data is provided
on sustainability, energy and climate
below
change, and responsible procurement.
We require all suppliers to be certified Key Environmental Statistics 2020 2019
as carbon balanced and eco-friendly.
Energy use – properties
During 2020 G-Bank made further
Total energy consumption – Gw 1,015 1,200
changes in its energy providers in 25
Energy consumption/FTE – Kw 0.10 0.13
countries, so that 95% of our total
Renewables as a 95% 91%
energy consumption now comes from
% of total energy consumption
renewable sources. Our extensive use
of videophone technology and virtual CO2 emissions – properties
meeting software means that business
CO2 – kilotonnes 21.0 21.8
travel has reduced by 75% over the
CO2 – tonnes/FTE 0.21 0.23
past five years.
In the last quarter of the year our Business travel
environmental auditors completed their Total travel-related CO2 – kilotonnes 1.0 1.9
annual sustainability audit and issued Travel-related CO2 0.01 0.02
an unqualified opinion. This has per FTE – tonnes/FTE
Small is beautiful: the Orange World

Where big is bad, for business, for people and for the
environment

In a nutshell:
Global businesses fragment, localism prevails, technology empowers a
low impact, high-tech business model. Networks prosper while large
companies fall.

2009 2010 2012 2014 2020

Facebook global Skill shortages Record number 71% of Europeans The California
membership push up wages in of corporate shop at local Gaming Guild
reaches 1 billion China, switching demergers and farmers markets, achieves record
people the balance of spin-offs popularity of pay deal for its
power to the supermarkets in 7 Star rated
individual away steep decline contractors
from the collective

0.6%
Only 0.6% of UK respondents
think that they will mainly work
from home
A free economy
Trade barriers come down creating a truly free
market economy and countries such as China
quickly realise that without embracing full
free-market forces they will be unable to compete.
Networks are key
The dream of a single global village has been
replaced by a global network of linked, but
separate and much smaller communities. The
exponential rise in the efficiency of online systems
for buying, selling and trading services and skills
has debunked completely the old orthodoxy that
economies arise from scale. Businesses are much
smaller and roles are more fluid.
19
Complex supply chains “Diversity is a
Supply chains are built from complex, organic huge challenge,
associations of specialist providers, varying greatly
but also a great
from region to region and market to market. The
solution is now not to outsource, but to fragment. opportunity.
Looser, less tightly regulated clusters of companies Getting diversity
Managing tomorrow’s people Orange World
are seen to work more effectively. Often functions
are picked up on a task by task basis by ‘garage’
right will be a
operations, with each transaction bought and sold critical future
by the second on one of a number of electronic
success factor
trading platforms, with local and global exchanges.
for us.”
Millennials drive technology use Peter Johann
Director Global HR
The millennial generation, comfortable with
technology, is driving the usage of technology as Management
BASF
the interaction with services, government and work,
with an emphasis on choice and anti-monopoly
thinking encouraging innovations in this area.
20

11.5% Labour market enters the guild era • Employees are usually aligned to guilds and
access opportunities through professional
In a tightening labour market individuals develop
portals provided by guild networks – work
of Chinese female portfolio careers, working on a short-term,
can be bought, sold and traded in this way.
respondents expect contractual basis. They join craft guilds which
Employment contracts are flexible to
manage career opportunities, provide training and
to have more than accommodate staff churn and a rapid
development opportunities.
turnaround.
ten employers during
• Workers are categorised and rewarded for
their career Managing people in the Orange World
having specialist expertise; this has created
• Organisations recognise that their employees increased demand for workers to have a
and the relationships they have across their personal stake in the organisation’s success
networks are the foundation of company with direct ownership share schemes and
success. Companies seek to promote and project delivery-related bonuses becoming
sustain people networks. This is achieved the norm.
through incentivising employees around
• Recruitment has become largely a sourcing
achieving connectivity goals and collaborative
function and has been merged with the
behaviours.
management of the huge number of contracts
• As guilds become more important, they take on and price agreements required for each
many of the responsibilities previously assumed company’s network of partner organisations.
by employers including sourcing talent, medical
insurance and pensions, development and
training.
Who leads people Organisational Employee profile 21

strategy? challenges

• People strategy is replaced with
sourcing strategy, as maintaining the
optimum supply chain of people is
key to this networked world.
• The People Sourcing Director liaises
with expertise networks and guilds to
• Organisations are heavily reliant on
their external networks to deliver what
they need, and a combination of
watertight contractual agreements
combined with a healthy degree of
business trust is imperative.
• The responsibility for skills
development shifts wholesale to
individuals.
• People are more likely to see
themselves as members of a
particular skill or professional network

Managing tomorrow’s people Orange World

attract what they need for the best
price.
• When a part of the network breaks than as an employee of a particular
down, the smaller size of company.
organisations means they are able to
• Employees rely on achieving high
flex and adapt quickly to change. But
scoring ‘eBay’ style ratings of past job
the flip side of this means that the
performance to land the next
lack of company infrastructure and
contract.
resources to deal with sudden
problems can be a challenge • Specialisation is highly prized and
workers seek to develop the most
• There is also a strong emphasis on
sought after specialist skills to
technology to support the supply
command the biggest reward
chain and to develop social capital
package.
and collaboration.
22 A people management model for the Orange World
Our third world is in many ways the most radical. In this world, economies are comprised primarily of a
vibrant middle market, full of small companies, contractors and portfolio workers. People management
is about ensuring these small companies have the people resources they need to function competitively.
This allows an important role to be carved out for HR, one where the people supply chain is a critical
component of the business and is strategically led by the HR function. But the flip side is that this could
also see in-house HR becoming a sourcing or procurement function, with the high-end people
development aspects of HR being managed externally by guilds.

Current model Operational model in 2020

Figure 4
 23
Future view

Extract from
employment networking
site in 2020
In the Orange World, Workbook,
an employment networking site,
is used as a key route for people

Managing tomorrow’s people Orange World

to find jobs, host their work
experience and join networks
24
Summary

A summary of Blue World Green World Orange World

the people Resourcing Long careers and career Holistic whole company Short-term careers. Lots of
and planning. Succession plans for approach to manpower planning. contracting. HR strongly focused
management Succession key performers. on filling fixed-term vacancies.
characteristics
Talent Strong performance focus Broad definition of talent. Minimal – key players in the
in 2020 Management across all levels. Top talent have Competencies focus. central ‘core’ only, but liaison
personal agents. with external agents crucial

Employee Engagement around Engagement around work-life Short-term engagement around

Engagement performance and performance balance and social responsibility. projects.
metrics. Heavy promotion of
corporate culture attributes and
behaviours.

Reward and Strongly performance-related. Focus on total reward over Contract based-pay for projects.
Performance Pay for performance. Highly career life-time. Individual stake in projects as
structured according to role incentive for contractors.
segmentation.

Learning and Begins at school. Focus on skills Holistic approach to learning Minimal provision in house. Skills
Development for the job – metrics driven. – much provided in-house. training via new crafts guilds.
But secondments and paid
sabbaticals for worthy causes
are common

Table 1
Are you ready for tomorrow’s world? 25

What will the world look like in 2020 – Blue, Green, “HR will continue
Orange or something else entirely? We believe it is
highly plausible that all three organisational models
to increase its
described in this report will feature in tomorrow’s alignment to

Managing tomorrow’s people Are you ready for tomorrow’s world

world, sometime or somewhere and to some
the business,
extent. We already see some multinationals heading
in the direction of the Blue World business model. with greater
The energy industry has been demonstrating accountability for
elements of the Green World for some time. We
firmly believe that, as the CSR and sustainability
delivering specific
The world of work is going to become even more corporate
agenda grows many other industries (and
complex. Our message is: take a long hard look
geographies) will take on characteristics of the objectives. This
at your organisation models and current people
green business model, for example the retail and
manufacturing sectors. Consumer preference will
management strategies; how are you addressing will result in a
reward, international mobility, employee
have a huge impact when it comes to the green
engagement, development and learning? Think
greater need for
agenda.
about how these might change in the future and HR to quantify
The Orange World in some ways represents the whether or not the strategy you currently have in itself in respect of
most radical departure. Will big business find place is future proof, is sustainable, sufficient and
itself outflanked by a vibrant, innovative and relevant for the plausible worlds of tomorrow. how we deliver
entrepreneurial middle market? Will the work
The survey we conducted is clearly representative
against the
expectations of the millenials be such that portfolio
lives will become far more pervasive? Will some
of only a part of the millennial generation. But what bottom line. ...
truly surprised us is the desire in this group for
larger organisations introduce internal markets and
stability and regularity in a changing world. Many
formal networks in place of old style hierarchies to
people said they expect to work regular hours, from
create structures where agility, speed and flexibility
the office or on location, and would have only
are key to success?
26

...We will also need between two and five employers in a lifetime. But How can organisations plan for the
equally let’s not ignore the Chinese women in our
to prepare ourselves future of people management?
sample who expected far more flexibility and to
for a new generation have at least ten employers in a lifetime – perhaps
these might be workers for the Orange World of the
entering the market
future.
place. A significantly
Our final message is to the HR function itself. We
more mobile believe there is a significant opportunity for the HR
generation with function to really own the people management
agenda within organisations, to truly drive strategy
differing expectations and have the tools and information to become one
from an employer, of the most powerful and influential parts of the
and we will need to business operation. But – and yes there is a but –
we can also see that complacency and a failure by
adapt to reflect this.” HR to take the lead could result in the function
Michael Poulten being outsourced almost entirely, or absorbed by
Personnel Manager line managers or into other functions such as
Reward and Benefits finance or marketing. The fate of HR as a function
Tesco Stores hangs in the balance. The challenge for HR is to
figure out how to make itself relevant for
tomorrow’s world.

Figure 5

Appendix
A1 Definition
Scenarios
We worked with the James Martin Institute for
Science and Civilisation at the Said Business
School in Oxford to think about the factors that
currently affect business and those which we
believe will grow in importance in the future. We
mapped these around a matrix and developed a
number of scenarios: plausible futures around each.
The result was the three worlds which we describe
in this report. Shell famously used scenarios to help
them to predict the Middle East oil crisis in 1973.
The process can help organisations think differently
about the future and plan for the inevitable
surprises.
27
Millenials
Wikipedia says ‘The Millenials’ are also known as:
‘Generation Y – a term used to describe someone
born immediately after Generation X…one of
Managing tomorrow’s people Appendix
several terms (also including The Internet
Generation) used to identify the same group. There
is much dispute as to the exact range of birth years
that constitutes Generation Y and the Millennials
and whether these terms are specific to North
America, the Anglophone world, or people
worldwide.’
For the purposes of this document, we refer to
‘Millennials’ as those who entered the workforce
after 1 July 2000.
28 A2 2020: our methodology

Scenarios
Our scenario planning exercise revealed that
individualism, collectivism, corporate integration
and business fragmentation would be the most
significant factors affecting global business for the
purposes of our study. We aligned these along two
axes, around which we developed our scenarios
further. We call these ‘worlds’. We began with four
worlds: yellow, red, blue and green, with the yellow
and red worlds straddling the top half of the
We started our research by examining the forces
quadrant. In these fragmented worlds we
that currently affect global business and are likely
discovered through our analysis that the differences
to have significant impact on the future. Clearly
across individualism and collectivism were hard to
there are many social, environmental, religious and
define in the fragmented world. Both of these
demographic factors that will have significant
worlds relied upon networks to survive, were, small,
influence but we felt that some of these issues have
nimble and adaptable. The motivations were the
been tackled extensively in other studies. We chose
only variant factor where the red world was more
to focus on a number of potentially conflicting
self-serving than the collective altruism of the
factors which we feel have the greatest impact on
yellow world. We decided therefore to combine
our subject matter – people management. Initially
these themes to create a single orange world which
we explored the following eight forces: (see
represented the fragmented business model.
diagram opposite).
Figure 6
Global forces

Managing tomorrow’s people Appendix

29
30 A3 PwC graduate survey findings

In July 2007, 2,739 Total China US UK

graduates from
Yes 93.9% 97.2% 92.1% 92.9%
China, the UK and Do you believe you will work across
geographic borders more than your
the US were polled parents did? No 6.1% 2.8% 7.9% 7.1%
about their
Do you envisage using a language other Yes 52.7% 89.4% 32% 35.3%
expectations of than your first language at work?
work. They had all No 47.2% 10.4% 68% 64.7%

been offered jobs

Will you deliberately seek to work for Yes 86.9% 87.2% 90.2% 71.2%
at PwC but had yet employers whose corporate responsibility
behaviour reflects your own values?
to start. No 13% 12.6% 9.6% 28.8%

A mix of
Do you think you’ll work...? 74% 75.7% 71.8% 79%
locations
Mainly from
4.6 7.4% 3.8% 0.6%
home
Mainly in an
21.2% 16.7% 24.3% 20.4%
office

Not answered 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0%

 31

Total China US UK

Mainly flexible
Do you think your office hours will 13.9% 17.6% 12.9% 7.4%
hours
be…?
Mainly regular
11% 7.1% 14.0% 10.0%
office hours

Managing tomorrow’s people Appendix

Regular office
75% 75.1% 73.1% 82.5%
hours

Not answered 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0%

How many employers do you think 1 8% 9% 8% 7.4%

you will have in your career?

2-5 78.4% 74.4% 80.4% 79.6%

6-9 7.9% 6.3% 8.5% 9.7%

10+ 5.5% 10.3% 3.2% 2.6%

Not answered 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6%

32
Acknowledgements Contact

There were numerous people involved in this Michael Rendell

project both within and outside Partner and leader of Human Resource Services
PricewaterhouseCoopers. Our particular thanks to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (UK)
Angela Wilkinson and team at the James Martin +44 (0) 20 721 24945
Institute and to all the companies who shared their michael.g.rendell@uk.pwc.com
views and insights.
Sandy Pepper
Our thanks to the core project team: Sandy Pepper, Partner/Project leader
Cecilia Nordqvist, Matthew Blakstad, Leyla Yildirim, Human Resource Services
Rachael Davison, Andrew Smith, Jackie Gittins, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (UK)
Sonja Jones and the rest of the team who took part +44 (0) 20 721 34948
in the scenarios workshop. We would also like to sandy.a.pepper@uk.pwc.com
thank Sivaramakrishnan Balasubramanian, Indrani
Rana (India), Svetlana Kruglova (Russia), Shinya
Karen Vander Linde
Leader, People and Change
Yamamoto (Japan), Steve Rimmer (US) and many
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (US)
other contributors from across our global network
+1 (703) 918 3271
of PricewaterhouseCoopers firms. Our final
karen.m.vanderlinde@us.pwc.com
acknowledgement goes to our internal human
capital teams around the world who helped us to Leyla Yildirim
conduct the graduate survey. Marketing
Human Resource Services
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (CI)
+44 (0) 1481 75 2039
leyla.yildirim@uk.pwc.com
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