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PROBLEM SET 1
Normal Distribution, CLT and Confidence Intervals
Exercise 1
Financial return: Risk analysis
The financial return of a commodity is estimated to be normally distributed with a
mean of 1% and standard deviation of 1.5%. Find the probabilities that the return
will be
a) at least 2.5%
b) between –0.5% and 4%
c) less than ‐1%
d) between 0% and 2%
Exercise 2
True or false:
a) If we know the mean of the normal distribution we know its shape
b) In the normal distribution, the mean, median, mode, and standard deviation
are all at the same position on the horizontal axis since the distribution is
symmetric.
c) Normal distribution that is wide has a high standard deviation
Exercise 3
The web publisher www.exploreiceland.is provides information on travelling to
Iceland. Access to the website is free but revenues are generated by selling ads that
are posted on the website. In the following month, the website has committed to
display ads to 650,000 viewers, i.e., 650,000 impressions. Based on data from
previous months the traffic to the website is estimated to be normally distributed
with a mean of 850,000 viewers and a standard deviation of 150,000.
a) What is the probability that the web publisher will be able to deliver the
promised impressions?
b) How many impressions should the web publisher have taken on, to be able to
guarantee a 95% service level?
Exercise 4
A survey involves selecting a random sample of 256 middle managers for study. One
item of interest is annual income. The sample mean is computed to be £35,420, and
the sample standard deviation is £2,050.
a) What is the estimated mean income of all middle managers (the population)?
b) Give a 95 percent confidence interval (rounded to the nearest £10) for your
estimate of the mean income. Do you have to make any assumptions?
c) Interpret the meaning of the confidence interval.
1
Exercise 5
A sample of 36 weekly observations of the FTSE 100 index returns has a mean of
0.005 (0.5%) and a standard deviation of 0.02 (2%).
a) Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the mean weekly return.
b) How large a sample is required to estimate the mean weekly return to within a
maximum error bound of 0.004 (0.4%)?
c) Do we need to assume that the weekly returns follow a normal distribution?
Exercise 6
Please discuss or write down the answers to the following questions:
a) If you collect 4 times more data, how much narrower will your confidence
interval (CI) be? Same question for collecting 100 times more data.
b) Assume you work for a manager who says one day "I got the budget to collect
twice as much data; that's great because our estimates will be twice as precise."
Is anything wrong with his statement?
c) Your manager says "Let's just calculate our CIs with 90% coverage probability
instead of 95%; this will make the CIs narrower." Is she right or wrong? Your
manager adds: "We get better precision this way." What is the manager's
misconception?