aka Yt Baseline

t YEAR SALES (DOLLAR TO PESO) MA(2) CMA(2) St, It

1 1980 7.5
2 1981 7.5 7.5 7.625 0.98
3 1982 8 7.75 9.375 0.85
4 1983 14 11 13.5 1.04
5 1984 18 16 17.5 1.03
6 1985 20 19 20.75 0.96
7 1986 25 22.5 24.25 1.03
8 1987 27 26 27 1.00
9 1988 29 28 30 0.97
10 1989 35 32 34.75 1.01
11 1990 40 37.5
12 1991
13 1992
14 1993
15 1994
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.986323183040994
R Square 0.972833421404119
Adjusted R Square 0.969814912671243
Standard Error 1.99531333097273
Observations 11

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 1 1283.122894 1283.122894 322.2894176
Residual 9 35.8314776 3.981275289
Total 10 1318.954372

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 0.866260543580129 1.290308854 0.671359063 0.518849959
t 3.4153701968135 0.190245661 17.95242094 2.34866E-08

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.986323183040994
R Square 0.972833421404119
Adjusted R Square 0.969814912671243
Standard Error 1.99531333097273
Observations 11
ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 1 1283.122894 1283.122894 322.2894176
Residual 9 35.8314776 3.981275289
Total 10 1318.954372

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 0.866260543580129 1.290308854 0.671359063 0.518849959
t 3.4153701968135 0.190245661 17.95242094 2.34866E-08
Yt/ CMA Yt/St
St Deseasonalize Tt Forecast Time series for Sale(do
0.97 7.73 4.28 4.15 60
1 7.50 7.70 7.70
0.97 8.25 11.11 10.78 50

1 14.00 14.53 14.53

40
0.97 18.56 17.94 17.40
1 20.00 21.36 21.36 30
0.97 25.77 24.77 24.03
1 27.00 28.19 28.19 20

0.97 29.90 31.60 30.66 10

1 35.00 35.02 35.02
0.97 41.24 38.44 37.28 0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
1 41.85 41.85
0.97 45.27 43.91
1 48.68 48.68
0.97 52.10 50.53 Year St
1 0.97
2 1.00

Significance F
2.34866E-08

Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

-2.05262087 3.7851419600747 -2.05262087 3.78514196
2.985004611 3.8457357826456 2.985004611 3.84573578
Significance F
2.34866E-08

Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

-2.05262087 3.7851419600747 -2.05262087 3.78514196
2.985004611 3.8457357826456 2.985004611 3.84573578
 Time series for Sale(dollar to peso)

SALES (DOLLAR TO PESO)

CMA(2)
Forecast

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990