EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING EXAMPLE:

Single
Forecast
Years Quarter Period Sales avg A(t)/avg alpha
0.45

90 1 1 362 0.95
2 2 385 1.01 362
3 3 432 1.14 372
4 4 341 380 0.90 399
91 1 5 382 0.91 373
2 6 409 0.98 377
3 7 498 1.19 391
4 8 387 419 0.92 439
92 1 9 473 0.93 416
2 10 513 1.00 442
3 11 582 1.14 474
4 12 474 510.5 0.93 522
93 1 13 544 0.92 501
2 14 582 0.98 520
3 15 681 1.15 548
4 16 557 591 0.94 608
94 1 17 628 0.93 585
2 18 707 1.05 604
3 19 773 1.15 651
4 20 592 675 0.88 706
95 1 21 627 0.87 655
2 22 725 1.01 642
3 23 854 1.19 679
4 24 661 716.75 0.92 758
96 1 25 0.92 714
2 26 1.01 690
3 27 1.16 677
4 28 0.92 670

900

800

700

600

500

400
700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
 Data for the example from NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods, http://www
Single
Forecast
alpha
0.05
MSE MSE

529.0 362 529.0

3558.1 363 4740.3
3386.4 367 655.0
80.9 365 278.5
1020.6 366 1836.4
11357.3 368 16824.7
2744.3 375 149.4
3270.4 375 9528.4
5105.6 380 17618.0
11728.7 387 38062.5
2346.0 397 5981.7
1880.1 401 20584.9
3825.2 408 30380.7
17693.4 416 70005.5
2584.8 430 16219.6
1852.2 436 36859.5
10541.3 446 68324.2
14998.6 459 98796.8
12914.5 474 13830.6
756.4 480 21527.7
6868.0 488 56352.7
30478.3 499 125682.9
9405.3 517 20676.1
524
498
473
450
6909.8 29367.2

900

800

700

600

500
Sales
Forecast
400
 700

600

500
Sales
Forecast
400

300

200

100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
of Statistical Methods, http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/

Sales
Forecast
 Sales
Forecast

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28