Quartely Sales Data: Table 4.

7 MHW

Year Quarter Period Sales (Yt)

1 1 1 362
2 2 385
3 3 432
4 4 341
2 1 5 382
2 6 409
3 7 498
4 8 387
3 1 9 473
2 10 513
3 11 582
4 12 474
4 1 13 544
2 14 582
3 15 681
4 16 557
5 1 17 628
2 18 707
3 19 773
4 20 592
6 1 21 627
2 22 725
3 23 854
4 24 661
 Sales (Yt)

900

800

700
Sales

600

500

400

300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Quarter
Holt Winter's Additive Model
a1 b1 c1 SSE Initialisation Set
Sum of square errors
0.1 0.1 0.1 11709.1194 Target cell for Solver
MSE 1463.64
MAPE 6.16
Initialisation
Set: Solver:
Year 1 to 3 Can be used to select those values of a1 , b1 Test Set
Test Set: and c1 the level, trend and seasonal index MSE 9246.32
Year 4 to 6 which minimises the sum of squared errors.
MAPE 12.71
Note that a1 b1 and c1 must be constrained
between 0 and 1.
Solver is a Tools menu option

Year Quarter Period Sales (Yt) Level (Lt) Trend(bt) Seasonal (st) Forecast(Ft) Error (Et)
1 1 1 362 -18.000
2 2 385 5.000
3 3 432 52.000
4 4 341 380 9.75 -39.000
2 1 5 382 390.775 9.853 -17.078 371.750 10.250
2 6 409 400.965 9.886 5.304 405.628 3.372
3 7 498 414.366 10.238 55.163 462.851 35.149
4 8 387 424.743 10.252 -38.874 385.604 1.396
3 1 9 473 440.503 10.803 -12.120 417.917 55.083
2 10 513 456.945 11.366 10.379 456.609 56.391
3 11 582 474.164 11.952 60.431 523.475 58.525
4 12 474 488.791 12.219 -36.466 447.241 26.759
4 1 13 544 488.890 55.110
2 14 582 523.608 58.392
3 15 681 585.880 95.120
4 16 557 501.202 55.798
5 1 17 628 537.767 90.233
2 18 707 572.486 134.514
3 19 773 634.757 138.243
4 20 592 550.079 41.921
6 1 21 627 586.645 40.355
2 22 725 621.363 103.637
3 23 854 683.634 170.366
4 24 661 598.956 62.044
|Et/Yt x 100|

2.683
0.825
7.058
0.361
11.645
10.992
10.056
5.645
10.130
10.033
13.968
10.018
14.368
19.026
17.884
7.081
6.436
14.295
19.949
9.386
Holt Winter's Additive Model
a1 b1 c1 SSE Initialisation Set
Sum of square errors
0.244515 1 1 3081.47148 Target cell for Solver
MSE 385.18
MAPE 3.65
Optimal values of a1, b1 and c1
Test Set
MSE 2535.06
Initialisation
Set: MAPE 5.85
Year 1 to 3
Test Set:
Year 4 to 6

Year Quarter Period Sales (Yt) Level (Lt) Trend(bt) Seasonal (st) Forecast(Ft) Error (Et)
1 1 1 362 -18.000
2 2 385 5.000
3 3 432 52.000
4 4 341 380 9.75 -39.000
2 1 5 382 392.256 12.256 -10.256 371.750 10.250
2 6 409 404.387 12.131 4.613 409.513 -0.513
3 7 498 423.727 19.340 74.273 468.518 29.482
4 8 387 438.894 15.167 -51.894 404.067 -17.067
3 1 9 473 461.199 22.306 11.801 443.804 29.196
2 10 513 489.589 28.390 23.411 488.117 24.883
3 11 582 515.472 25.883 66.528 592.252 -10.252
4 12 474 537.574 22.103 -63.574 489.461 -15.461
4 1 13 544 571.478 -27.478
2 14 582 605.191 -23.191
3 15 681 670.410 10.590
4 16 557 562.410 -5.410
5 1 17 628 659.888 -31.888
2 18 707 693.601 13.399
3 19 773 758.820 14.180
4 20 592 650.820 -58.820
6 1 21 627 748.298 -121.298
2 22 725 782.011 -57.011
3 23 854 847.230 6.770
4 24 661 739.230 -78.230
|Et/Yt x 100|

2.683
0.125
5.920
4.410
6.173
4.850
1.761
3.262
5.051
3.985
1.555
0.971
5.078
1.895
1.834
9.936
19.346
7.864
0.793
11.835
 Holt's Additive

1000

900

800

700
Sales (Yt)
Forecast(
Ft)
600

500

400

300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Quarter